Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Macro uncertainties are strong, and short - term macro impacts may still fluctuate. Fundamentally, supply is stable while consumption is seasonally weak, but market arrivals are not abundant, and the continuous accumulation of aluminum ingot social inventory is not confirmed. The long - position atmosphere in the short - term remains, and future inventory changes should be monitored [2][6] Group 3: Summary by Directory Transaction Data - LME Aluminum 3 - month price rose from 2597.5 to 2602 yuan/ton; SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three rose from 20490 to 20525 dollars/ton; LME Aluminum inventory increased by 36350 tons to 400275 tons; SHFE Aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increased by 13495 tons to 51980 tons; spot average price decreased by 102 yuan/ton to 20698 yuan/ton; electrolytic aluminum weekly average profit decreased by 139.4 yuan/ton to 4111.18 yuan/ton [3] Market Review - The weekly average spot price was 20698 yuan/ton, a decrease of 102 yuan/ton from last week. Fed officials have different views on interest rate prospects. Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper starting August 1, 2025. The domestic downstream aluminum processing industry's operating rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.6%. On July 10, electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.8 tons to 46.6 tons, and aluminum rod inventory increased by 0.65 tons to 16 tons [4][5] Market Outlook - Similar to the core view, macro uncertainties are high, and short - term macro impacts may fluctuate. Fundamentally, supply is stable and consumption is seasonally weak, but market arrivals are scarce, and the continuous accumulation of inventory is not confirmed. The long - position atmosphere remains, and inventory changes should be monitored [6] Industry News - Yunnan held a meeting on the green aluminum industry, and the Wenshan Zhilv project was put into operation; Canada may provide financial support to large aluminum producers if the 50% US aluminum import tariff persists; Baotou Aluminum's 200,000 - ton project had a successful hot - load test [7] Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including LME Aluminum 3 - SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three price trends, LME Aluminum premium, etc., to show the market situation of the aluminum industry [8][9][12]

现货黄金报3329附近美元/盎司； 现货白银报37.15美元/盎司； 基本面： 周五（7月11日）银价早盘压力位震荡，白银价格长时间保持区间震荡行情，适当减少白银的投资时间周期，同时也可以减少白银的仓位，短期交易或者观 望为主。基本面美国劳动力市场的最新数据为金市分析提供了重要背景。美国劳工部周四公布的数据显示，截至7月5日当周，初请失业金人数意外降至22.7 万人，低于市场预期的23.5万人，创七周以来最低水平。这一数据表明，尽管劳动力市场存在降温迹象，雇主仍在努力留住员工，显示出劳动力市场的韧 性。然而，续请失业金人数却升至2021年11月以来的最高水平，达到196.5万人，表明失业者寻找新工作的难度正在增加。景顺固定收益首席策略师Rob Waldner评论称，当前劳动力市场呈现出"停滞"特征，企业倾向于通过降低员工流失率和减少招聘来控制成本，而非大规模裁员。这种低裁员、低招聘的趋 势使得劳动力市场保持了相对稳定，但也为经济前景蒙上了一层不确定性。 劳动力市场的复杂信号对黄金市场的影响是双重的。一方面，强劲的就业数据提振了美元和美债收益率，进一步压制金价；另一方面，劳动力市场潜在的疲 软迹象可能在未来为黄 ...

Fundamental Analysis - Trump's tariff policy is set to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper and Brazilian goods starting August 1, escalating trade tensions with Brazil. Brazilian President Lula seeks diplomatic solutions but warns of reciprocal measures if tariffs are enacted. This policy may increase commodity prices, intensifying inflationary pressures, which presents both opportunities and challenges for gold as an inflation hedge. However, a stronger dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields could offset this benefit [3]. - Recent U.S. labor data shows initial jobless claims fell to 227,000, below the expected 235,000, marking a seven-week low. Conversely, continuing claims rose to 1.965 million, the highest since November 2021, indicating increased difficulty for unemployed individuals in finding new jobs [4]. - Strong employment data has bolstered the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, further suppressing gold prices. Potential signs of labor market weakness may provide support for gold's safe-haven demand in the future [5]. - The June Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate that while some officials suggest a possible rate cut this month, most remain cautious about inflation pressures from tariffs, preferring to maintain the current policy rate of 4.25%-4.50%. St. Louis Fed President Bullard noted that the impact of tariffs on inflation may not fully materialize until late 2025 or early 2026, leading to a cautious stance on rate cuts. The futures market anticipates a 25 basis point cut in September and a total of 53 basis points by year-end. Fed Governor Waller's comments have injected some optimism, suggesting that the upcoming policy meeting may open the door for rate cuts. Lower interest rates typically weaken the dollar and boost gold prices, but the uncertainty surrounding tariff policies may continue to limit gold's upside potential [6]. Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices have been in a converging triangle pattern since encountering resistance at the 3500 level on April 22. Following a recent decline, gold showed signs of recovery, closing with a small gain on Thursday. The current moving averages are intertwined, indicating a short-term sideways market. Key resistance levels to watch are between 3340-3346, which coincide with the 20-day and 30-day moving averages and previous resistance points. A breakout above this range could extend the bullish trend towards the previous highs of 3365-3366 and the Fibonacci retracement level of 3374. Support is focused around 3284, formed by connecting the lows from May 15 and June 30 [7]. - On the four-hour chart, the price has recently approached a trendline resistance formed by the previous high since the decline from 3452. The price touched the 3330 resistance level, and there are indications of a potential upward breakout. If this occurs, the strategy should focus on maintaining support at the recent low of 3310, looking for buying opportunities during price pullbacks. Key upward targets include the 3345/3346 and 3365/3366 regions, while support levels to monitor are the recent low of 3310 and the lower low of 3282 [9].

Group 1: XAU/USD Gold - The market experienced a V-shaped reversal with a daily range of 341 points, closing with a small bullish candle and a long lower shadow [1] - Current price action is at the top of a descending channel, with resistance at 3330; a breakout could lead to targets of 3345/3363 [1] - ETO Markets suggests monitoring for breakout signals at the channel top due to market volatility from trade negotiation uncertainties and cautious Federal Reserve policies [1] Group 2: EUR/USD - The EUR/USD pair fluctuated around 1.171 with a daily range of 40 points, closing with a small bullish candle [6] - Positive progress in EU-US trade negotiations is noted, with a target to reach an agreement before August [6] - ETO Markets highlights the need to pay attention to European policy changes and Federal Reserve officials' comments that may impact the market [6] Group 3: GBP/USD - The GBP/USD pair traded around 1.359 with a daily range of 55 points, closing with a small bullish candle [10] - The UK Office for Budget Responsibility warned of insufficient fiscal flexibility, leading to a sell-off in long-term UK bonds [10] - ETO Markets emphasizes the importance of monitoring UK government policies for their potential market impact [10] Group 4: GBP/JPY - The GBP/JPY pair reached a high of 199.8 before retreating, with a daily range of 123 points and closing with a long upper shadow [14] - The market is advised to focus on short positions due to resistance at the 38.2%/50% Fibonacci levels [14] - ETO Markets suggests selling on rallies as the primary strategy [14]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes revealed no unexpected developments, with a general market expectation that there will be no interest rate cuts this month and that tight monetary policy will be maintained until September [1] - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, initially facing pressure around 3308, then trading within a narrow range of 3296 to 3282 during the European session, before rising to a peak of 3317 in the US session [1] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are under short-term downward pressure, with a converging triangle pattern suggesting uncertainty in future movements, although there is a subjective judgment that an upward breakout is more likely [3] Group 2 - The operational strategy suggests selling on a rebound at 3333 with a stop loss at 3344 and a target range of 3310 to 3300, emphasizing the importance of self-discipline and honesty in trading [4] - Current market conditions show that gold is in a narrow trading range on the daily chart, with short-term moving averages flattening, indicating a likely continuation of this range-bound behavior [3] - Resistance levels for gold are identified at 3333-3337, while support is found at 3300-3295, with a recommendation to focus on short positions during rebounds [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are significantly influenced by Trump's tariff policies, Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and the strength of the US dollar and bond yields [3][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - Domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 771.02 CNY per gram, up by 0.19% [1]. - International gold price is reported at 3325.9 USD per ounce, up by 0.15% [2]. Group 2: Influential Factors - Trump's tariff policy includes a 25%-40% tariff on 14 countries starting August 1, and a 50% tariff on imported copper, which may lead to increased market volatility and affect gold demand [3]. - The Federal Reserve's upcoming release of the June monetary policy meeting minutes is crucial; a dovish signal could weaken the dollar and support gold prices, while a hawkish tone may lead to a price correction [3]. - A strong dollar increases the cost of gold for holders of other currencies, and rising US bond yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, both of which exert downward pressure on gold prices [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Short-term gold price is expected to fluctuate between 3250 - 3400 USD, with significant uncertainty [4]. - Geopolitical tensions or dovish Fed minutes could push gold above 3355 USD, while easing tariff uncertainties and hawkish minutes may lead to a drop towards 3300 USD or lower [4]. - Long-term factors, including global monetary system restructuring, are expected to support a gradual upward trend in gold prices, although short-term volatility remains a concern [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [1][2][3] Core Views - The finished products are expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center moving downward and running weakly [1][2] - The aluminum price is expected to run in a high - level range in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [3] Summary by Related Contents Finished Products - Yunguizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown and maintenance time is mostly in mid - to late January, with a production resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total construction steel output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have or will shut down, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - Finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [2] Aluminum - Macroscopically, Trump escalated trade tensions on Monday, warning 14 countries of higher tariffs, but the effective date was postponed to August 1. The market is waiting for the Fed's latest policy meeting minutes [1] - Domestically, as of last Thursday, the total built - in production capacity of metallurgical - grade alumina was 110.82 million tons/year, the operating total capacity was 88.63 million tons/year, and the weekly start - up rate decreased by 0.31 percentage points to 79.97%. As of the end of June, the in - plant inventory of alumina enterprises increased by 81,000 tons [2] - Affected by factors such as the high - temperature off - season, high aluminum prices, insufficient profit margins, and weak downstream demand, the start - up rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7% last week [2] - In the aluminum plate and strip field, enterprises actively reduced production due to insufficient orders and high inventory. In the aluminum cable field, July orders are pessimistic, but the delivery expectation of State Grid orders in the second half of the year is good. Aluminum profile enterprises have weak new orders and are under pressure due to intense processing fee competition [2] - On July 7, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 478,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from last Thursday and 10,000 tons from last Monday. It is expected that the inventory of domestic aluminum ingots will increase steadily in early July [2] - Currently, the off - season inventory accumulation has initially appeared, the impact of the rainy season in Guinea is reflected in the ore price, but the off - season pressure on the demand side limits the upward space. Macro - risk pricing increases, and attention should be paid to domestic policy promotion [3]

Group 1: Macro - The domestic policy focuses on mid - stream manufacturing and anti - involution measures. The upcoming July Politburo meeting is expected to introduce growth - stabilizing policies. Trump's tariff delay eases short - term pressure but leaves long - term uncertainty for trade - dependent sectors [2] - The four major stock index futures contracts closed up, with IM performing the strongest. The market sentiment is warm, but the trading volume shrank by 89.1 billion yuan, showing cautious chasing sentiment. Mid - term breakthrough needs fundamental support [2] - For unilateral strategies, focus on long opportunities in small and medium - cap indexes, beware of basis fluctuations. For arbitrage strategies, there may be IM/IC reverse arbitrage opportunities due to the convergence of deep discounts in far - month contracts [2] Group 2: Crude Oil - The low dollar index supports oil prices, but the US non - farm data reduces the possibility of a July interest rate cut and the OPEC+ July meeting has expectations of accelerated production increase, so oil prices will fluctuate in the short term [3] - Trump's tweet and potential OPEC+ production increase put oil prices in a relatively weak position, but the upcoming summer peak season provides some support. Market expectations for summer demand are pessimistic [3] - Pay attention to the support level of around $65 per barrel for WTI [3] Group 3: Gold - The June non - farm data basically rules out a July interest rate cut. Trump's tariff policy and central bank gold - buying behavior support gold prices in the long term [4] - In the short term, trade risks and high - interest rate prospects weaken gold's appeal, but in the long term, the "Big and Beautiful Act" and tariff uncertainties enhance its hedging value [5] - Focus on the battle around the $3350 per ounce multi - empty dividing line, with support around $3300 per ounce. Pay attention to the Fed's June meeting minutes [5] Group 4: Silver - On July 8, Asian session, spot silver opened at $36.769 per ounce and maintained a narrow - range oscillation [6] - The US economic recovery is weak, tariff policies increase uncertainty, but Indian physical investment and industrial demand support silver prices. The gold - silver ratio has reached a new low [6] - In the short term, pay attention to the support in the range of $36.60 - $36.45 per ounce. Policy games before August 1 may boost silver prices [6] Group 5: Chemicals PTA - The spot price in East China is 4805 yuan/ton. Cost support is weak, and the supply pressure has increased significantly. Demand is sluggish with a negative outlook [7] - It will be in a short - term weak consolidation. Pay attention to raw material disturbances and downstream production cuts [7] Ethylene Glycol - The spot price in East China is 4347 yuan/ton. The market is in a tight balance with inventory pressure. It will oscillate weakly in the short term [8] - Be vigilant against the pressure of increased imports. Aggressive investors can short on rallies [8] PVC - The spot price in East China has decreased. Supply capacity utilization has decreased slightly, demand is weak, and inventory has increased [9][10] - The fundamentals have not improved significantly, and it will fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [10] PP - The spot prices in different regions have decreased. Supply capacity utilization has decreased, demand has weakened slightly, and inventory has decreased [11] - The fundamentals have not improved, and it will fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [12] Plastic - The spot prices in different regions have decreased. Supply capacity utilization has increased, demand has changed slightly, and inventory has decreased [13] - The fundamentals have no obvious improvement, and it will fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [13] Soda Ash - The spot price in Shahe remains unchanged. Supply has decreased due to more maintenance, inventory has increased, and demand is average [14] - It is recommended to adopt a bottom - range oscillation strategy in the short term [14] Glass - The spot price in Shahe remains unchanged. Supply has increased, inventory has decreased slightly, and demand is weak [15] - It is recommended to adopt a wide - range oscillation strategy in the short term [15] Rubber - The spot prices of different types of rubber are provided. New rubber supply has increased, and raw material prices have declined. Demand from the tire industry is weak [16] - It will oscillate with the market, and the rebound height may be limited. Pay attention to downstream tire开工 rates [16] Methanol - The spot prices in different regions remain unchanged. The futures price has decreased, port inventory has increased, supply has decreased due to maintenance, and demand is weak [17] - The futures price will oscillate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to port inventory accumulation and Iranian plant resumption [17] Group 6: Agricultural Products Corn - The spot prices in different regions are provided. The USDA report has limited support, and the domestic market is in a new - old grain transition period. Demand is weak [18][19] - The futures price will test the support level of around 2300 yuan/ton in the short term [19] Peanut - The spot prices in different regions are provided. The expected increase in planting area may pressure far - month prices. The current market is in a supply - demand weak pattern [20] - The futures price will oscillate weakly in the short - term range. Pay attention to the support around 8000 yuan/ton [20] Cotton - The spot prices are provided. The US production forecast has been revised down, and the domestic supply is expected to be loose. The current supply is tightening, but demand is weak [21] - The cotton price will oscillate in the short term. Pay attention to market speculation [21] Pig - The spot price has decreased. Supply has increased as farmers are more willing to sell, and demand is weak due to high temperatures and lack of holidays [22] - The 2509 contract has high uncertainty. Pay attention to pig slaughtering [22] Egg - The spot price has decreased. Supply is sufficient as the number of laying hens increases, and demand is weak. The price is under pressure [23] - The price will oscillate at a low level. Pay attention to farmers' culling intentions and it is recommended to wait and see [23] Soybean Meal - The spot prices in different regions are provided. International factors are tariffs and weather, and domestic supply pressure is high while demand is strong [24] - The price may oscillate weakly in the short term [24] Soybean Oil - The spot prices in different regions are provided. Internationally, pay attention to US soybean growing weather and MPOB report. Domestically, supply pressure is high and demand is in the off - season [25] - The price may oscillate weakly in the short term [25] Group 7: Metals Shanghai Copper - The spot price has decreased. Trump's tariff threat on copper has caused fluctuations in US copper. Domestic policies support the market, but raw material issues and inventory changes complicate the market [26] - The copper price has fallen from above 80,000 yuan. Consider removing defenses on rallies [26] Shanghai Aluminum - The spot price has decreased. The high probability of a Fed rate hike in July and tariffs suppress prices. Supply is sufficient, demand is in the off - season, and inventory is starting to accumulate [27] - Aggressive investors can conduct range operations, and conservative investors should wait and see [27] Alumina - The spot price is basically stable. Trade policy uncertainty increases. Supply is affected by bauxite shortages, demand is stable but the procurement rhythm has slowed, and inventory costs have decreased [28][29] - The over - supply expectation remains, and it may be stimulated by news in the short term [29] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price remains unchanged. Cost provides support, supply is facing over - capacity, demand will enter the off - season, and inventory is increasing [30] - The 2511 contract will maintain a range oscillation [30] Lithium Carbonate - The spot prices remain unchanged. Cost support has strengthened, supply is stable at a high level, and demand is in the off - season. Prices may oscillate strongly in the short term [31] - Aggressive investors can try long positions near the moving average, and conservative investors should wait and see [31] Industrial Silicon - The spot prices have increased. Supply is expected to remain high, and demand varies in different sectors. It will oscillate strongly in the short term but face over - supply pressure in the long term [32] - Adopt a range operation strategy and wait for key support and pressure levels [32] Polysilicon - The spot prices have increased. Supply is structurally differentiated, demand is weak, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. It may oscillate strongly in the short term [33][34] - Pay attention to the 40,000 - yuan pressure level. Holders of long positions can consider partial profit - taking [34] Group 8: Black Metals Stainless Steel - The spot price remains unchanged. The cost is supported, supply pressure exists, demand is weak in the off - season, and inventory has decreased slightly [35] - It will oscillate in a wide range at a low level [35] Rebar - The spot price remains unchanged. Macro sentiment has improved, cost support has strengthened, demand has increased slightly in the off - season, inventory is low, and supply is expected to shrink [36] - Adopt a long - on - dips strategy in the short term [36] Hot - Rolled Coil - The spot price has decreased. Similar to rebar, macro factors drive the market, cost support is strong, demand has increased slightly, and supply is expected to shrink [37] - Adopt a long - on - dips strategy in the short term [37] Iron Ore - The spot prices are provided. Import volume has increased slightly, demand is facing short - term contraction due to environmental policies, port inventory has decreased slightly, and the market has large differences [38] - The main contract will oscillate in a range in the short term, and investors should be cautious [38] Coal - The spot price of coke has increased. For coking coal, production has increased, inventory has decreased in some areas, and prices have rebounded slightly. For coke, production losses have increased, demand has decreased slightly, and inventory has decreased [39][40] - Coking coal will remain weakly stable, and the coke main contract may oscillate strongly. Pay attention to steel mill inventory reduction and policy implementation [40]

机构：美国利率年末料微降，实质降息在明年 金十数据7月8日讯，Insight Investment固收主管Brendan Murphy在报告中指出，美国利率在今年年底前 可能小幅下行，但实质性的降息将出现在明年。尽管经济前景正在转弱，但近期美国贸易关税带来的通 胀压力将使美联储的政策反应变得更加复杂。在这种背景下，预计美联储将采取谨慎态度。该机构预 计，在2026年通胀压力缓解、增长担忧成为主导因素后，美联储将采取更加果断的降息举措。 ...

Group 1 - The current silver price is $36.76 per ounce, with a trading range between $36.64 and $36.86 during the day [1][2] - The strong U.S. dollar is putting downward pressure on silver prices, as investors flock to the dollar amid trade uncertainties [3][4] - The market is facing unpredictability due to conflicting ideologies between Trump's protectionist policies and Musk's advocacy for free trade, which may complicate silver's role as a hedge [4] Group 2 - Analysts warn that if silver fails to hold the short-term pivot at $36.30, it could lead to a price drop to the major support range of $35.40 to $34.87 [5] - The market is currently experiencing profit-taking pressure, similar to gold, as investors reassess their positions ahead of clarity on U.S. trade policies and Federal Reserve actions [5] - The medium-term trend remains supported by the 50-day moving average at $34.50 and the 200-day moving average at $32.40, maintaining a "buy on dips" strategy [5]