Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various financial products including bonds, stocks, precious metals, commodities, and agricultural products. It offers short - and medium - term outlooks and investment strategies for each product based on market data, macro - economic conditions, and industry - specific factors [5][7][10]. Summary by Product Categories Bonds (Treasury Bonds) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year contracts rising by 0.37%, 0.15%, 0.09%, and 0.02% respectively [5]. - **Macro - economic Situation**: Current macro - data is stable, but the economic recovery momentum needs strengthening. Monetary policy is expected to remain loose [5]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and a cautious approach is recommended [5][6]. Stocks (Stock Index Futures) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results, with the CSI 300 and SSE 50 futures falling, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 futures rising [7]. - **Industry News**: There are issues of blind construction and irrational competition in the power and energy storage battery industry, which need to be regulated [7]. - **Macro - economic Situation**: The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak, and corporate profit growth is low. However, asset valuations are low, and the economy has resilience. Market sentiment has improved, and incremental funds are entering the market [8]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: The volatility center of stock index futures is expected to gradually rise, and investors can consider taking long positions at appropriate times [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures declined, with gold falling by 0.10% and silver by 4.35% [10]. - **Industry News**: US December lay - off data and Eurozone economic sentiment index were released [10]. - **Macro - economic Situation**: The global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial for the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, recent sharp price increases have led to a significant rise in speculative sentiment [10]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Market volatility is expected to increase significantly, and investors are advised to exit long positions and wait and see [10][11]. Commodities Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded but faced resistance [12]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In the medium term, prices are determined by supply - demand. Demand is weak due to the real - estate downturn and approaching off - season. Supply pressure has eased as production is at a low level, and inventory is slightly higher than last year but being consumed quickly [12]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Prices may continue to oscillate weakly. Investors can consider long positions on pull - backs with proper position management [12][13]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures had a slight correction [14]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: National hot - metal production has declined in the past two months but may recover. Imports increased in the first 11 months of 2025, and domestic production is lower than in 2024. Port inventory is at a five - year high [14]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern is expected to strengthen. Futures may continue to be strong in the short term. Investors can consider long positions on pull - backs with proper position management [14][15]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose and then fell [16]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Coking coal production has increased as mines resume production, but demand from coke enterprises is weak. Coke prices have been lowered for the fourth time, and demand from steel mills is weak due to low profits [17]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: The rebound shows signs of fatigue. Investors can consider long positions at low levels with proper position management [17][18]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures declined, with manganese - silicon falling by 1.77% and silicon - iron by 3.18% [19]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Manganese ore supply is recovering, and port inventory is low. Cost is fluctuating within a narrow range. Production of rebar by sample steel mills is lower than in 2024, and ferroalloy production is at a low level in the past five years. Supply is still abundant, and inventory is increasing [19]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Overall oversupply persists. Investors can consider exiting long positions on consecutive rallies and taking long positions at low levels [20]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil dropped significantly due to the US plan to sell Venezuelan oil [21]. - **Industry News**: There are multiple news related to the US's actions against Venezuela's oil industry [21]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: The price is under pressure. Investors are advised to wait and see [21][22]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated slightly and closed above the 5 - day moving average [23]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased, which is positive for prices. However, the decline in crude oil prices may drag down fuel oil prices [23][25]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Investors are advised to wait and see [26]. Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou saw low - price replenishment, and the LLDPE market in Yuyao rose [27]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Production enterprises are reducing inventory, and market prices have stopped falling and rebounded, which is beneficial for price stability [27]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Investors can consider long positions [28]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose by 1.83% [29]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The price increase was supported by rising butadiene prices and high device operating rates. However, downstream demand is weak, and inventory turnover days have increased [29]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: The market is expected to oscillate strongly [29][31]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures declined slightly [32]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Domestic supply has stopped, but overseas pressure remains. Demand from tire enterprises is weak, and inventory is increasing seasonally. The inclusion of 20 - rubber substitutes in physical delivery has expanded the supply [32]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: The market is expected to oscillate [32][33]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, PVC futures fell by 0.99% [34]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: It is currently the off - season for PVC. Supply pressure is increasing as production has increased in December and maintenance losses have decreased. Demand is weak, and corporate profits are compressed [34]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: The market may oscillate strongly in the short term, and the supply - demand situation may improve in the medium term. However, demand uncertainty should be noted [34][35]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, urea futures rose by 0.45% [36]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply has increased slightly, and demand from the agricultural sector is expected to grow as the top - dressing season approaches. Industrial demand is weak. Indian urea tender prices have increased, boosting market sentiment. Corporate inventory has decreased [36]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly [36][37]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, PX futures declined by 1.94% [38]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: PX operating rate is stable, and some plants have restart or maintenance plans. The PXN spread and short - term profit are stable [38]. - **Macro - economic Situation**: Geopolitical uncertainties may lead to adjustments in crude oil prices [38]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: PX may oscillate in the short term. Investors should be cautious and pay attention to macro - policies and fundamental changes [38][39]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, PTA futures fell by 1.05% [40]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: PTA operating rate has increased slightly, and polyester demand is stable. PTA exports have increased significantly in November. Processing fees have adjusted to a neutral level [40]. - **Macro - economic Situation**: Crude oil prices may be affected by geopolitical factors [40]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: PTA may oscillate in the short term. Investors should operate cautiously and pay attention to oil price changes [40]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell by 0.21% [41]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The operating rate has increased, and port inventory is under pressure. The planned arrival of goods at the port has increased. Downstream demand support has weakened slightly [41][42]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Investors are advised to wait and see and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [42]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell by 0.86% [43]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply is at a relatively high level, and terminal factories are digesting raw material inventory. Short - fiber inventory is low, providing some support. The market is mainly driven by cost [43]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Short - fiber may oscillate following raw material prices. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [43]. Bottle - Chip - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures fell by 0.59% [44]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The operating rate has decreased slightly, and there are plans for concentrated production cuts around the Spring Festival. Exports have increased. The market is mainly driven by cost [44][45]. - **Macro - economic Situation**: Raw material prices may be affected by geopolitical factors [45]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Bottle - chip may oscillate following cost. Investors should be cautious and pay attention to the implementation of maintenance plans [45]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, carbonate lithium futures rose by 2.46% [46]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Production is at a high level, and demand from the energy storage and power battery sectors is improving. Social inventory is decreasing [46]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: The price is supported in the short term, but investors should operate cautiously as it may be affected by news [46]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, copper futures fell by 1.61% [47]. - **Industry News**: There are labor disputes at a Chilean copper mine and delays in an Ecuadorian copper mine project [48]. - **Macro - economic Situation**: US economic data is mixed, and there are geopolitical risks. China has introduced policies for equipment renewal and consumer goods replacement [48]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The copper concentrate processing fee for the first quarter of next year has declined, and COMEX copper inventory is increasing. Domestic consumption is in the off - season, and social inventory is rising [48]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Copper prices are at a high level, but investors should be cautious about chasing the price due to weak demand and high - price suppression [48][49]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, aluminum and alumina futures declined, with aluminum falling by 1.17% and alumina by 2.95% [50]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The price of imported ore from Guinea has decreased, and the supply of alumina is in excess. Aluminum production is stable, but the proportion of molten aluminum has decreased. Aluminum processing enterprise operating rates have declined [50]. - **Industry News**: The National Development and Reform Commission plans to upgrade the alumina industry [50]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Alumina prices may rebound, but there is a risk of a decline. Aluminum prices are at a high level, but the upward space is limited [50][51]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, zinc futures fell by 1.02% [52]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee has fallen below the smelting cost, and refined zinc production is likely to decrease. Consumption is in the off - season, but there is still rigid demand. Overseas supply has improved [52]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Zinc prices have risen, but investors should be cautious about chasing the price due to the approaching off - season and high - price suppression [52][53]. Lead - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, lead futures fell by 1.31% [54]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply is weak due to maintenance and environmental regulations. Consumption is in the off - season, and inventory is low [54]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to oscillate within a range [54][55]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, tin futures fell by 1.53% [56]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply is tight due to geopolitical conflicts, slow复产 of mines in Wa State, and strict crackdown on illegal mines in Indonesia. Demand has some resilience supported by emerging industries. Inventory is decreasing [56]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Tin prices are supported, but there may be short - term corrections. Investors should control risks [56][57]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, nickel futures fell by 4.48% [58]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Indonesia has adjusted its nickel ore quota and may tax associated resources. Nickel production costs are expected to rise. Supply is affected by the crackdown on illegal mines and the rainy season in the Philippines. Demand is weak as stainless steel is in the off - season and downstream consumption is sluggish. Inventory is relatively high [58]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: First - grade nickel is in excess. Investors should pay attention to Indonesian policies [58]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal futures fell by 0.32%, and soybean oil futures rose by 0.20% [59]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Brazilian soybean planting is almost complete, and US soybean export progress is slow. Oil mill soybean crushing volume has decreased, and inventory pressure is still high. Soybean meal demand is growing moderately, and soybean oil demand has slightly improved [59][60]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Investors can consider long positions in soybean meal at low - cost support levels and long positions in soybean oil call options at low levels [60]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil has risen for two consecutive months [61]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Indonesia may increase the palm oil export tax, which supports prices, but inventory is expected to increase. Chinese palm oil imports have increased significantly in November, and inventory is at a medium level in the past seven years [61]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Investors can consider long positions after pull - backs [62]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed prices have continued to rise [63]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: There are discussions about Canadian farmers' planting plans. Chinese rapeseed and rapeseed oil imports have shown different trends in November. Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil inventories are at different levels in the past seven years [63]. - **Industry News**: There will be trade negotiations between the US and Canada, and the Canadian Prime Minister will visit China [63]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Investors can consider widening the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal and between soybean oil and rapeseed oil if Canadian rapeseed imports increase [63][64]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fell significantly due to profit - taking [65]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Domestic cotton production is expected to increase slightly, and the US production forecast has also increased. Global production is expected to decrease slightly. Cotton exports in November showed mixed results. Domestic cotton acquisition is almost complete, and future planting area is expected to decrease [65][66]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Cotton prices are expected to be strong in the medium - to - long term [67][68]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded, and overseas raw sugar futures fluctuated slightly [69]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In the 2025/26 sugar - making season, domestic sugar production in Guangxi decreased in December. Indian sugar production is expected to increase significantly, and there will be a large inventory surplus. Chinese sugar imports in November decreased year - on - year but increased in the first 11 months [69][70]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: The upward space for sugar prices may be limited after the significant rebound [71][72]. Apple - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated [73]. - **Supply - Demand Situation

Group 1 - The small metal sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, with cobalt, germanium, and tungsten leading the gains [1] - China’s tungsten industry is expected to see a long-term supply-demand tightness, with tungsten prices likely to rise systematically [1] - Global tungsten supply-demand balance has been in a shortage since 2021 and is expected to continue this trend from 2023 to 2027 [1] Group 2 - Cobalt supply is facing a rigid shortage, with the Democratic Republic of Congo's quota expected to reduce global cobalt supply to 200,000 tons [1] - Global cobalt consumption is projected to grow, reaching 221,000 tons and 231,000 tons in 2026 and 2027 respectively [1] - The supply of key metals is highly rigid, with mining expansion cycles lasting 3-5 years, and environmental regulations raising extraction thresholds [2] Group 3 - The Rare Metals ETF has seen a significant increase, with a latest scale of 1.162 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception [2] - The ETF has experienced continuous net inflows over the past 10 days, with a peak single-day net inflow of 84.71 million yuan [2] - The ETF closely tracks the China Rare Metals Theme Index, with lithium, rare earths, and cobalt making up nearly 30% of its total weight [3]

贵金属2026年报 ——贵金属仍处上行通道， 拐点关注美联储政策变化与美国经济改善 汪楠 从业资格号：F3069002 投资咨询号：Z0017123 中航期货 2025-12-31 02 宏观面 目录 01 后市研判 03 基本面 后市PA研RT判01 Ø 2025年贵金属市场表现亮眼，黄金和白银均呈现加速上涨格局，不断突破历史新高。年内国际金价从2600美元/盎司上涨至最高4550美元/盎司 以上，涨幅70%以上；国际银价从29美元/盎司上涨至最高82美元/盎司上方，涨幅高达180%以上。2025年贵金属价格上涨的逻辑不断切换，从 上半年市场交易对等关税及美国经济衰退担忧带来的避险需求，到下半年交易降息预期带来的流动性宽松预期，叠加白银实物供需紧缺驱动 资金流入贵金属市场，价格加速上行，波动显著放大。在金价上涨的过程中，白银涨幅遥遥领先，实现了金银比的修复回归。 Ø 展望2026年，当前支撑贵金属价格上涨的逻辑并没有发生改变，贵金属仍处上行通道。美国财政货币双宽松的背景下，美元信用持续受损， 去美元化加速资产储备的多元化，全球央行延续购金将继续支撑金价，重点关注中国央行购金行为；而流动性宽松仍将是2026年 ...

供给端约束持续强化，以稀土为代表的关键金属供给高度刚性，矿产扩产周期长达 3-5 年，环保、能 耗、出口管制进一步抬高开采门槛，且全球稀土、锂、钴等战略资源分布不均，中国在加工环节占据优 势（稀土加工份额 92%）；当前铜、锂、稀土等品种库存处于历史低位，低库存下需求增量易引发价 格弹性。此外，在大国博弈和全球 "去美元化" 背景下，稀有金属战略资产属性获市场重估，中证稀有 金属主题指数选取不超过 50 家业务涉及稀有金属采矿、冶炼和加工的上市公司证券作为样本，前两大 权重占比为锂（33.67%）、稀土（24.63%），精准覆盖高景气产业链。 1月9日消息，据上交所数据显示，截至 09:56，上证指数上涨 0.38%，CS 稀金属指数上涨 1.99%，个股 方面，西部超导涨超 7%，洛阳钼业涨超 3%，盛和资源涨超 2%，中国稀土、北方稀土等涨超 1%，赣 锋锂业跟涨。 热门 ETF 方面，稀有金属 ETF（562800）涨 2.02%，盘中成交额达 1.66 亿元，换手率达 3.73%。天天 基金网数据显示，该基金近 6 月涨 78.82%，近 1 年涨 105.98%。 消息面上，稀有金属板块涨势延续，板 ...

摘要芝商所(CME)当地时间8日发出通知，将于当地时间1月9日盘后全面上调黄金、白银、铂金、钯金 期货品种的履约保证金，同时大部分天然气合约的保证金将被下调，芝商所称保证金的调整是基于对市 场波动性以确保充足的抵押品覆盖的审查做出的。这是其近一个月以来第三次发出此类通知，将上调贵 金属品种履约保证金。 芝商所(CME)当地时间8日发出通知，将于当地时间1月9日盘后全面上调黄金、白银、铂金、钯金期货 品种的履约保证金，同时大部分天然气合约的保证金将被下调，芝商所称保证金的调整是基于对市场波 动性以确保充足的抵押品覆盖的审查做出的。这是其近一个月以来第三次发出此类通知，将上调贵金属 品种履约保证金。 【要闻速递】 周四(1月8日)，美元指数连涨三日，盘中逼近99关口，最终收涨0.125%，报98.87；美债收益率普涨，基 准的10年期美债收益率最终收报4.173%，对美联储政策利率敏感的2年期美债收益率收报3.498%。 现货黄金先跌后涨，收复了早些时候的失地，最终收涨0.50%，报4477.39美元/盎司；由于投资者正准 备迎接未来几天内价值数十亿美元的期货合约抛售潮，现货白银连续第二个交易日走低，一度下破74 ...

回望刚刚过去的2025年，如果要问什么东西涨价的最疯狂，相信所有人都会告诉你答案，这就是黄金，有媒体统计黄金去年一年创了50多次历史新高，统计 来看更是46年最大的涨幅，如此夸张的涨价，让人不禁想问今年黄金还会接着涨吗？ 一、金价一年创50多次历史新高 据央视财经的报道，2025年，大宗商品市场走势明显分化：贵金属领跑，能源板块承压。以黄金为例，金价创下了50多个历史新高，跑赢了美国的主要股指 和美元指数。背后的推动因素包括各国央行的购买、美联储降息的大环境、货币贬值交易的重燃、以及ETF资金的涌入等等。不容忽视的还有白银，2025年 COMEX白银期货的涨幅是黄金的两倍还多。而大宗商品板块，原油价格持续疲软。WTI和布伦特原油期货下挫的幅度均逼近20%。 据格隆汇的报道，2025年最后一个交易日金价下跌，但全年计，金价升64%，创1979年以来46年最大升幅。金价上升主要是美联储减息、地缘政治风险升 温、各国央行增持，以及资金持续流入黄金ETF交易所买卖基金等推动向上。 金融畅销书《货币战争》作者里卡斯(James Rickards)近期在媒体访问中预期，金价2026年底前有望冲上一万美元，白银亦可能上望2 ...

智通财经APP获悉，就美元而言，美国经济出人意料的韧性正在压倒美国总统特朗普掀起的地缘政治动 荡。在迈入新年之际，交易员加大了对美元的做空押注，认为随着美联储降息、美元将再次承压，从而 促使全球投资者将资金投向回报更高的市场。特朗普强行抓捕委内瑞拉领导人马杜罗、宣称对该国油田 拥有主权，并对其他国家发出威胁，这些举动看似会通过重新点燃对美国资产安全性的担忧，再度拉低 美元。 然而，美元却无视这些风险走强。外汇交易员几乎忽略了特朗普最新试图颠覆延续数十年的全球秩序的 举动。相反，随着数据显示美国就业市场放缓程度低于此前担忧，市场开始质疑美联储今年降息的幅 度，美元因此上涨。 本周美元的上行走势——即便可能只是短暂反弹——再次体现出在特朗普时代，华尔街预测市场方向的 难度之大。AGF Investments固定收益与外汇主管Tom Nakamura表示："我们脚下的地面经常在变化。无 论我们对全年有什么样的展望或判断，想要长期坚持下去都会非常具有挑战性。" 如此大规模的押注，可能使美元在就业市场未出现急剧放缓、担忧缓解后具备一定反弹空间。随着美国 国债收益率回升，美元也随之走高，在过去三天里持续上涨。 策略师Au ...

本周，现货黄金价格在经历两日上涨后，于7日下跌，8日再度下探。多位分析人士认为，近两日黄金价 格下跌，主要是此前上涨后的正常获利回吐所致，后续黄金价格偏强走势难改。 作为避险资产，黄金价格通常在低利率环境以及不确定性上升时走强。 中国央行也在增持黄金。数据显示，截至2025年12月末，中国央行黄金储备报7415万盎司，环比增加3 万盎司，为连续第14个月增持。 "中国央行持有黄金储备余额占同期外汇储备余额的比重约为9.5%，但仍然明显低于全球平均水平。"中 银证券全球首席经济学家管涛说。 业内专家认为，在国际金价持续大幅上涨、屡创历史新高的过程中，中国央行持续小幅增持黄金，释放 了优化国际储备的信号。未来，中国央行增持黄金仍有空间。 不过亦有机构警示短期风险。高盛观察到，近期现货黄金库存偏紧，可能引发剧烈波动和挤仓式上涨， 但随后可能出现回调。 瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室发表观点称，当前金价已处于高位，若美联储意外转向，交易型开放式指 数基金(ETF)或出现大规模赎回，金价可能面临下行压力。 （中国新闻网） 一方面，市场关注到美国偏疲软的就业数据，强化了美联储将降息的预期，这是近期金价走强的重要背 景。另一方 ...

随着金价飙升和各国央行激进的购买潮，黄金已正式超越美国国债，三十年来首次成为全球最大的储备资产。这是全球金融体系的一个标志性时 刻，凸显了在财政可持续性担忧和地缘政治风险加剧的背景下，全球资本正加速向避险资产转移。 据世界黄金协会（WGC）最新数据，若假设年底央行持有的黄金储备规模不变，以年底价格计算，美国海外全球官方黄金储备价值已达3.93万亿 美元。这一数字正式超越了海外官方持有的长期和短期美债规模，后者截至10月份的价值接近3.88万亿美元。上一次外国机构持有的黄金规模超 过美债还要追溯到1996年。这一结构性转变不仅反映了金价的强劲上涨，更揭示了全球储备资产配置的深层调整。 此次逆转恰逢金价在年终反弹中及2026年开年的强劲表现。继2025年录得近70%的涨幅后，黄金在2026年首周延续涨势，一度触及4,500美元并维 持在该水平附近，单周上涨3.6%。地缘政治紧张局势持续提振其作为避险资产的吸引力。 分析人士指出，这标志着全球储备持有结构发生了根本性变化。NDR首席宏观策略师Joe Kalish指出，随着人们对法定货币的信任度降低，非美国 家持有的黄金储备价值正迅速追赶并最终超越其美债储备价值。这一 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the **gold market** and its pricing dynamics, particularly in the context of changing global economic conditions and geopolitical risks. Core Insights and Arguments - **Traditional Gold Pricing Model Failure**: Post-2022, the explanatory power of U.S. real interest rates on gold prices has weakened due to high inflation potentially underestimating real rates, and structural demand from central banks has altered pricing logic [1][3] - **Central Bank Gold Purchases Reflecting Dollar Trust Crisis**: The freezing of Russian reserve assets by the U.S. and Europe has impacted the global credit system, leading to increased gold purchases as countries seek to hedge against dollar instability [1][4] - **Emerging Economies Increasing Gold Holdings**: Emerging markets are reducing dollar assets and increasing gold holdings to address uncertainties in development and security, with the People's Bank of China being a significant player in this trend from 2022 to 2024 [1][8] - **Geopolitical Risks Driving Gold Demand**: Ongoing conflicts and trade tensions have heightened gold's appeal as a safe haven, prompting central banks to shift from short-term hedging to long-term strategies [1][10] - **U.S. Policy Uncertainty Impacting Dollar Stability**: Increased political polarization in the U.S. has led to uncertainty in foreign policy, undermining the dollar's status as a global reserve currency [1][11] Additional Important Content - **Gold's Share in Central Bank Assets**: Although currently low compared to historical highs, the proportion of gold in central bank assets has been rising since 2014, indicating strong future demand [1][12] - **Future Gold Price Trends**: The supply-demand dynamics suggest that as long as strong demand from central banks persists, gold prices are likely to remain high or even increase further [1][6] - **Emerging Market Strategies**: Emerging economies are collectively increasing gold reserves as a strategy to catch up with developed economies and mitigate risks associated with the dollar [1][9] - **China's Role in Gold Price Support**: China's central bank's significant gold purchases and the allowance for insurance companies to invest in gold are expected to provide ongoing support for gold prices [2][13]