Core Insights - The overall revenue of the top ten global foundries is projected to exceed $41.7 billion in Q2 2025, marking a record high with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.6% driven by pre-stockpiling effects from consumer subsidies in the Chinese market and demand for new smartphones, laptops/PCs, and servers in the second half of the year [1] Group 1 - The increase in foundry capacity utilization and shipment volume is expected to strengthen due to seasonal demand for new products in Q3 [1] - Advanced process technologies are set to benefit from upcoming major chip orders, while high-priced wafers will significantly boost industry revenue [1] - Mature process technologies will also see support from surrounding IC orders, leading to an overall increase in capacity utilization compared to the previous quarter [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent financial report of Huahong Company (688347) indicates a significant increase in total revenue but a drastic decline in net profit, highlighting potential challenges in profitability despite revenue growth [1][3]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 8.018 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.09% compared to 6.732 billion yuan in 2024 [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 74.3154 million yuan, showing a substantial decline of 71.95% from 265 million yuan in the previous year [1]. - The gross profit margin improved to 17.57%, up 7.52% year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased to -7.75%, a drop of 7.58% [1]. - The company reported a significant accounts receivable level, with accounts receivable accounting for 395.91% of the latest annual net profit [1][3]. Cost and Expenses - Total selling, administrative, and financial expenses amounted to 622 million yuan, representing 7.76% of revenue, an increase of 10.33% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s operating cash flow per share increased by 21.25% to 0.94 yuan, while earnings per share fell by 73.33% to 0.04 yuan [1]. Investment and Market Position - The company’s historical return on invested capital (ROIC) has been relatively low, with a median ROIC of 3.31% since its listing, indicating average investment returns [3]. - The company relies heavily on research and capital expenditure, necessitating careful monitoring of capital projects and their financial viability [3]. Market Outlook - Analysts expect the company’s performance in 2025 to reach 674 million yuan, with an average earnings per share forecast of 0.39 yuan [3]. - The semiconductor industry, particularly the wafer foundry sector, is experiencing steady demand, with expectations of modest price increases in the latter half of the year [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt is still high. In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate decreased, and the refinery reduced production to ease supply pressure [7]. - The demand for asphalt is currently below the historical average. The construction and road - related asphalt开工率 (operating rates) are mostly lower than historical levels, although the waterproofing membrane开工率 increased slightly [7]. - The cost side shows that the daily asphalt processing profit is negative but increasing, and the delayed coking profit in Shandong is decreasing. The difference between asphalt and delayed coking profit is narrowing, and the strengthening of crude oil is expected to support prices in the short term [8]. - The basis is neutral, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price. The inventory situation is mixed, with social inventory decreasing, factory inventory increasing, and port diluted asphalt inventory decreasing. The market is expected to be in a narrow - range shock in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3497 - 3537 [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors. The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and a downward trend in overall demand, along with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate was 32.838%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.40 percentage points. The total shipment of sample enterprises was 237,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.50%, and the sample enterprise production was 548,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.80%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise devices was 648,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.15%. The refinery's production cut this week will reduce supply pressure in the future [7]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 30.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.07 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 16.9855%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.11 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 28.33%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.17 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 30.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.90 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is below the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 591.75 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.70%. The weekly delayed coking profit in Shandong was 788.4443 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.78%. The loss of asphalt processing increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support prices in the short term [8]. - **Basis**: On August 28, the spot price in Shandong was 3,510 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 27 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 1.292 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.79%. The factory inventory was 716,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.70%. The port diluted asphalt inventory was 150,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.05% [8]. - **Market Outlook**: It is expected that the market will be in a narrow - range shock in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3497 - 3537 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 - 2025, which helps investors understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [18]. - **Spread Analysis** - **主力合约价差 (Main Contract Spread)**: The historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 - 2025 are shown, which can assist in analyzing market structure and arbitrage opportunities [22]. - **沥青原油价格走势 (Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend)**: The historical price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil from 2020 - 2025 are presented, reflecting the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [25]. - **原油裂解价差 (Crude Oil Cracking Spread)**: The historical trends of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent cracking spreads from 2020 - 2025 are shown, which can help analyze the profitability of asphalt production [28]. - **沥青、原油、燃料油比价走势 (Asphalt - Crude Oil - Fuel Oil Price Ratio)**: The historical trends of the asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 - 2025 are presented, which can assist in analyzing the relative price relationships between different energy products [33]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - The report shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 - 2025, which helps investors understand the regional asphalt spot market [35]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **沥青利润 (Asphalt Profit)**: The historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 - 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the profitability of the asphalt industry [37]. - **焦化沥青利润价差走势 (Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread)**: The historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 - 2025 are shown, which can assist in analyzing the profit differences between different production processes [41]. - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **出货量 (Shipment Volume)**: The historical trends of small - sample asphalt enterprise shipment volume from 2020 - 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the supply situation from the perspective of sales [44]. - **稀释沥青港口库存 (Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory)**: The historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 - 2025 are shown, which can assist in analyzing the supply situation from the perspective of inventory [46]. - **产量 (Production)**: The historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production from 2019 - 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the overall supply situation [49]. - **马瑞原油价格及委内瑞拉原油月产量走势 (Marine - derived Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production)**: The historical trends of Marine - derived crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 - 2025 are shown, which can assist in analyzing the impact of raw material supply on asphalt production [53]. - **地炼沥青产量 (Local Refinery Asphalt Production)**: The historical trends of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 - 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the supply contribution of local refineries [55]. - **开工率 (Operating Rate)**: The historical trends of asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 - 2025 are shown, which can assist in analyzing the production activity level of the asphalt industry [58]. - **检修损失量预估 (Estimated Maintenance Loss)**: The historical trends of estimated maintenance loss from 2018 - 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the impact of refinery maintenance on supply [60]. - **Inventory Analysis** - **交易所仓单 (Exchange Warehouse Receipts)**: The historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 - 2025 are presented, which can assist in analyzing market supply and demand expectations [64]. - **社会库存和厂内库存 (Social Inventory and Factory Inventory)**: The historical trends of social inventory (70 - sample) and factory inventory (54 - sample) from 2022 - 2025 are shown, which can help analyze the inventory distribution and market supply and demand situation [67]. - **厂内库存存货比 (Factory Inventory - Stock Ratio)**: The historical trends of the factory inventory - stock ratio from 2018 - 2025 are presented, which can assist in analyzing the inventory management efficiency of factories [70]. - **进出口情况 (Import - Export Situation)** - **沥青出口走势 (Asphalt Export Trend)**: The historical trends of asphalt export from 2019 - 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the international market demand for domestic asphalt [73]. - **沥青进口走势 (Asphalt Import Trend)**: The historical trends of asphalt import from 2019 - 2025 are shown, which can assist in analyzing the impact of international supply on the domestic market [73]. - **韩国沥青进口价差走势 (Korean Asphalt Import Price Spread)**: The historical trends of the Korean asphalt import price spread from 2020 - 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the cost - effectiveness of imported asphalt [76]. - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **石油焦产量 (Petroleum Coke Production)**: The historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 - 2025 are presented, which can assist in analyzing the demand for asphalt in related industries [79]. - **表观消费量 (Apparent Consumption)**: The historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 - 2025 are shown, which can help analyze the overall market demand [82]. - **下游需求 (Downstream Demand)** - **公路建设交通固定资产走势 (Highway Construction Fixed - Asset Investment)**: The historical trends of highway construction fixed - asset investment from 2020 - 2025 are presented, which can assist in analyzing the demand for asphalt in highway construction [85]. - **新增地方专项债走势 (New Local Special Bonds)**: The historical trends of new local special bonds from 2019 - 2025 are shown, which can help analyze the financial support for infrastructure construction and asphalt demand [86]. - **基础建设投资完成额同比 (Year - on - Year Growth of Infrastructure Investment Completion)**: The historical trends of the year - on - year growth of infrastructure investment completion from 2020 - 2024 are presented, which can assist in analyzing the overall infrastructure construction situation and asphalt demand [86]. - **下游机械需求走势 (Downstream Machinery Demand)**: The historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly operating hours, and domestic excavator sales from 2020 - 2025 are shown, which can help analyze the demand for asphalt in construction projects [89]. - **压路机销量走势 (Roller Sales)**: The historical trends of roller sales from 2019 - 2025 are presented, which can assist in analyzing the demand for asphalt in road compaction [91]. - **沥青开工率 (Asphalt Operating Rate)** - **重交沥青开工率 (Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate)**: The historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate from 2019 - 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the production activity level of heavy - traffic asphalt [94]. - **按用途分沥青开工率 (Asphalt Operating Rate by Use)**: The historical trends of construction asphalt and modified asphalt operating rates from 2019 - 2025 are shown, which can assist in analyzing the production activity levels of different types of asphalt [97]. - **下游开工情况 (Downstream Operating Conditions)** - **鞋材用sbs改性沥青开工率 (SBS - Modified Asphalt Operating Rate for Footwear)**: The historical trends of SBS - modified asphalt operating rate for footwear from 2019 - 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the demand for asphalt in the footwear industry [100]. - **道路改性沥青开工率 (Road - Modified Asphalt Operating Rate)**: The historical trends of road - modified asphalt operating rate from 2019 - 2025 are shown, which can assist in analyzing the demand for asphalt in road construction [100]. - **防水卷材改性沥青开工率 (Waterproofing Membrane - Modified Asphalt Operating Rate)**: The historical trends of waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt operating rate from 2019 - 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the demand for asphalt in the waterproofing membrane industry [102]. - **供需平衡表 (Supply - Demand Balance Sheet)**: The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to August 2025, including data on production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand, which can help comprehensively analyze the market supply - demand situation [105].

Report Date - The report is dated August 28, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View - The asphalt market showed a slight decline following the oil price. The trend strength of asphalt is -1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [1][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of BU2509 and BU2510 decreased by 1.49% and 1.48% respectively during the day, and increased by 0.46% and 0.61% respectively during the night session. The trading volume of BU2509 decreased by 1,751 lots, and its open interest decreased by 1,288 lots. The trading volume of BU2510 increased by 7,553 lots, and its open interest decreased by 23,879 lots. The total market asphalt warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 71,500 lots [2] - **Spread Data**: The basis (Shandong - 09) was 25 yuan/ton, with a change of 33 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The 09 - 10 inter - period spread was 24 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton. The Shandong - South China spread decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 20 yuan/ton, and the East China - South China spread decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 200 yuan/ton [2] - **Spot Market Data**: The Shandong wholesale price was 3,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,700 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The refinery operating rate was 36.67%, a decrease of 0.25%, and the refinery inventory rate was 27.15%, a decrease of 0.66% [2] Market Information - **Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 29.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4%. The main reasons were that Xinjiang Meihuit had no production plan this week, and several refineries such as Henan Fengli, Shandong Jincheng, and Shandong Shengxing switched to producing residual oil, and Ningbo Keyuan stopped producing asphalt [14] - **Maintenance Volume**: The domestic asphalt plant maintenance volume this week (20250821 - 0827) was 68.2 tons, an increase of 3.4 tons or 5.2% compared to last week. Although Sinopec Quanzhou switched to producing asphalt, the shutdown and switch to residual oil production of several refineries increased the loss volume [14] - **Shipment Volume**: The total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises from August 20 - 26, 2025 was 40.4 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.3%. In the North China region, shipments decreased due to rainfall and terminal shutdowns, while in the East and South China regions, shipments increased due to good terminal demand [14] - **Modified Asphalt Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic sample modified asphalt enterprises was 17.1%, a month - on - month increase of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. Although the processing enthusiasm of some northern enterprises weakened due to intermittent project closures and rainfall, the downstream demand in the East and South regions improved, especially in Shandong, which drove up production [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The solar industry is facing significant challenges, with companies like Shuangliang Energy proposing a 2 billion yuan capital increase despite low capacity utilization and high debt levels, raising questions about the sustainability of such moves in a declining market [2][10][22] Company Situation - Shuangliang Energy's board approved a capital increase plan of up to 2 billion yuan for its subsidiaries in Baotou, aimed at strengthening their capital base for future business development [2][10] - The company's actual operational situation reveals a stark contrast, with capacity utilization around 50%, significant layoffs, and a debt ratio exceeding 80% [2][10][13] - The subsidiaries, Shuangliang Silicon Materials and Hengli Crystal Silicon, are experiencing severe financial strain, with both companies reporting losses and high operational costs [14][15] Market Conditions - The solar market has entered a phase of oversupply, leading to reduced demand and lower prices, which has adversely affected Shuangliang Energy's operational performance [12][22] - The company has faced a drastic decline in production capacity, with reports indicating that the third-phase project operates at only half its previous capacity [7][9] Financial Health - Shuangliang Energy's debt levels are alarmingly high, with an asset-liability ratio of 82.77% as of the end of 2024, indicating a precarious financial position [13][19] - The company has been forced to increase capital multiple times, with the latest round being the second within a year, highlighting ongoing liquidity issues [10][16] - Comparatively, other industry players maintain healthier financial metrics, with asset-liability ratios between 58% and 64%, underscoring Shuangliang's vulnerability [19] Industry Dynamics - The solar manufacturing sector is characterized by intense competition, with companies reluctant to exit the market despite financial difficulties [17][22] - Future demand for solar products may face significant changes due to market reforms and reduced construction of large solar bases, posing additional risks for manufacturers like Shuangliang Energy [22]

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Hengmei Health Technology Co., Ltd. is preparing for an IPO on the Beijing Stock Exchange, facing challenges such as a decline in revenue and net profit, and regulatory scrutiny over inaccurate disclosures related to a terminated betting agreement [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Hengmei Health specializes in the research, production, and sales of nutritional functional foods, primarily providing comprehensive R&D and production services to brand clients [3]. - The company is controlled by Feng Wei, who holds 78.10% of the voting rights, with key shareholders including Zheng Yadan and Yang Peng [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of approximately 587 million yuan, 979 million yuan, and 1.072 billion yuan for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively, with net profits of about 39.84 million yuan, 97.44 million yuan, and 103 million yuan [6]. - In Q1 2025, Hengmei Health experienced a revenue decline of 10.14% year-on-year, totaling 217 million yuan, and a net profit drop of 23.12%, amounting to 20.61 million yuan [7]. Group 3: Regulatory Issues - The company received a warning letter from the regulatory authority due to inaccurate disclosures regarding the termination of special rights agreements with investors [5][6]. - The warning highlighted discrepancies in the timing of the signing of supplementary agreements related to the company's obligations [5]. Group 4: Production Capacity and Challenges - The company faced low capacity utilization rates for certain products in 2024, with liquid products at 55.81%, bar products at 69.90%, and baking products at only 11.97% [8]. - The decline in revenue was attributed to market demand fluctuations and rising costs of key raw materials, particularly protein-based ingredients [7][8]. Group 5: Future Plans - Hengmei Health plans to raise 50.13 million yuan for projects aimed at expanding production capacity and enhancing R&D capabilities [9]. - The new production base is expected to improve operational efficiency and attract skilled talent, thereby strengthening the company's market position [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue and net profit showing significant year-on-year growth, indicating a positive trend in both domestic and international markets [1][2]. Revenue Performance - In 1H2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.32 billion yuan, up 9.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 110 million yuan, up 117.8% year-on-year [1]. - Domestic and international sales for 1H2025 were 750 million yuan and 3.42 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting growth of 11.7% and 8.1% year-on-year [2]. - In 2Q2025, the company reported revenue of 4.4 billion yuan for domestic sales, up 17.7% year-on-year, and 1.75 billion yuan for international sales, up 2.8% year-on-year [2]. Channel Performance - The company experienced a reduction in the number of offline stores, with a net decrease of 17 direct stores and 10 dealer stores compared to the end of 2024 [3]. - Online sales for the company's proprietary brand saw rapid growth, driven by enhanced e-commerce and live-streaming strategies [3]. Profitability - The gross margin for 1H2025 was 39.2%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, with domestic gross margins reaching 51.1%, up 6.7 percentage points [5]. - In 2Q2025, the gross margin was 39.1%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, with domestic gross margins at 51.3%, up 6.8 percentage points [6]. Cost Structure - The company's expense ratio for 1H2025 was 34.9%, up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased e-commerce operational costs [8]. - In 2Q2025, the expense ratio remained at 34.9%, with sales expenses increasing due to the focus on online business development [8]. Market Outlook - The domestic furniture retail market showed strong growth, with a 22.6% year-on-year increase in total retail sales from January to July 2025 [8]. - The company is expected to benefit from potential interest rate cuts and tariff policies that may enhance its competitive position in the U.S. market [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The production of cis - butadiene rubber in China has increased, and the domestic supply may significantly increase with the release of the production capacity of some overhauled devices, and the finished - product inventory level is expected to rise. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tires increased last week, but there may be a slight decline this week due to factors such as high - temperature weather and limited overall order increments. The br2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,850 - 12,300 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 12,010 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 310 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 46,705 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 10,950 lots. The 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber is 20 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in the warehouse is 2,490 tons, with no week - on - week change [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different petrochemical companies in different regions ranges from 11,700 yuan/ton, with price decreases ranging from 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is 90 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 115 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil is 67.73 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.06 dollars/barrel; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 587 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2.5 dollars/ton. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 830 dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,095 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 15 dollars/ton. The price of WTI crude oil is 63.66 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.14 dollars/barrel; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 9,315 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 110 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.11 million tons/week, with no week - on - week change; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 68.15%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.54 percentage points. The terminal port inventory of butadiene is 27,300 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 6,900 tons; the daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 49.13%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.61 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 129,200 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6,700 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 69.15%, with a week - on - week increase of 4.63 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 458 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 24 yuan/ton. The terminal social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 30,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 200 tons; the terminal manufacturer inventory is 23,200 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 250 tons; the terminal trader inventory is 7,410 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 420 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.13%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.06 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 64.76%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.67 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.75 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 130,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 56.97 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.74 million pieces. The terminal inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.76 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.25 days; the terminal inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 47.05 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.32 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of August 21, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 30,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 200 tons and a week - on - week growth rate of 0.56%. As of August 21, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 71.87%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.81 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 64.97%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.35 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 7.01 percentage points. Most of the previously overhauled cis - butadiene rubber devices have been restarted, and the domestic output has increased. Affected by the surrounding market, the mainstream supply price has further increased, but the strong price - pressing procurement sentiment of downstream customers has led to slow terminal sales [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The PVC market is in a situation of strong expectations versus weak reality, showing signs of stopping the decline and stabilizing. The supply - demand pattern remains weak, but the market sentiment has improved compared to the first half of the year. The low point of 4746 in the year still has strong support, and the profit - loss ratio of short - selling decreases significantly when the price falls below 5000 [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory PVC Market Review - This week, the V2601 contract oscillated between 4951 and 5119 yuan/ton, with a 4 - week consecutive decline in the weekly line and an enlarged amplitude compared to last week. The contract closed at 5019 yuan/ton, down 78 points or 1.5% from last week's close [3][8]. - As of Friday, the closing price of the PVC01 contract was 5059 yuan/ton (down 78 week - on - week), and the main contract's open interest was 980,000 lots, which was higher than the same period in previous years [11]. - The basis weakened, and the number of warehouse receipts increased rapidly. As of Friday, the PVC Changzhou basis was - 279 yuan/ton, and the number of PVC warehouse receipts was 82,000 lots (up 0.2 week - on - week). The delivery volume in June was 35,000 tons, at a neutral level year - on - year [13]. - The 9 - 1 month spread weakened. As of Friday, the V9 - 1 spread was - 141 yuan/ton (up 2 week - on - week), and the V3 - 5 spread was - 222 yuan/ton (up 27 week - on - week) [16]. - This week, the price of calcium carbide - based PVC declined more, and the price difference between ethylene - based and calcium carbide - based PVC widened [19]. Supply - This week, PVC production was 460,000 tons (down 16,000 week - on - week), with a capacity utilization rate of 78%. From week 1 to 34, the cumulative production increased by 4.4% year - on - year, and the supply was still under pressure. Next week, the capacity utilization rate is expected to reach 78.33%, and the overall supply is expected to increase [22]. Demand - **Real Estate**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of new construction, construction in progress, completion, and sales areas of real estate were - 19.4%, - 9.2%, - 16.5%, and - 4% respectively. The decline in new construction area narrowed, while the declines in construction, completion, and sales areas widened. In July, the year - on - year growth rates of these four indicators were - 15.2%, - 16.4%, - 29.5%, and - 8.4% respectively. The sales area has seen a continuous 4 - month decline. In July, the price index of newly built commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 5.85% year - on - year. This week, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities was 1.93 million square meters [25][28]. - **Domestic Demand**: This week, the downstream operating rate was 43%. The operating rates of pipes and profiles improved for two consecutive weeks, while the operating rate of films declined for three consecutive weeks [31]. - **Export**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative PVC export volume was 2.29 million tons (an increase of 830,000 tons year - on - year), with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 57%. In July, the domestic PVC export volume was 330,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 113%. However, on August 14, India announced new anti - dumping duties, which are expected to reduce China's export advantage and the export growth rate to India in the second half of the year. From January to July, the cumulative export volume of PVC flooring was 2.45 million tons (a year - on - year decrease of 11%), and in July, the export volume was 350,000 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 11%) [34][38]. Inventory - As of Thursday, the PVC enterprise inventory was 310,000 tons (down 21,000 week - on - week), with 9 consecutive weeks of destocking, a total of 100,000 tons. The small - sample social inventory was 510,000 tons (up 15,000 week - on - week), with 10 consecutive weeks of inventory accumulation, a total of 150,000 tons. The large - sample social inventory was 680,000 tons (up 41,000 week - on - week), with 9 consecutive weeks of inventory accumulation, a total of 280,000 tons [41]. Profit - This week, the gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC was - 223 yuan/ton (up 8 week - on - week) [44]. Strategy - **Single - side**: The absolute price is undervalued. Close short positions and try to go long on dips in the short - term. Focus on the V2601 contract in the range of [4950, 5200]. - **Hedging**: The futures market is in a contango structure. Industrial customers can sell on rallies for hedging [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term price fluctuations are large, and the market will operate weakly with oscillations [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Content Steel Production and Utilization Rates - Last week, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.25%, a 0.03 - percentage - point increase from the previous week; the steel mill profitability rate was 64.94%, a 0.86 - percentage - point decrease; the daily average pig iron output was 240.75 tons, a 0.09 - ton increase [3] - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 56.67%, a 0.72 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week and a 22.48 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The average operating rate was 75.69%, a 0.69 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week and a 24.72 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [3] - Among 87 section steel production lines in Tangshan, 15 were actually in operation, with an overall operating rate of 25.42%, a 27.12% decrease from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate was 49.23%, a 0.89% increase from the previous week [3] Steel Mill Maintenance Plans - According to the survey, 45% of steel mills in Tangshan, Hebei plan to conduct maintenance in the short - term but are waiting for notice, 32% have confirmed maintenance, and 23% will not conduct maintenance. The known daily average impact on pig iron output in Tangshan, Hebei is about 4.18 tons, with a total pig iron volume of 37 - 45 tons [3] Steel Price - Over the weekend, the ex - factory tax - included price of common billet resources in Qian'an, Tangshan increased by 20 yuan/ton to 3040 yuan/ton [3] Market Situation - Last week, the finished steel market mainly oscillated and corrected, returning to the fundamental trading logic. Although there were production restrictions on the supply side, downstream demand remained weak. As September approaches, construction sites in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region will face stricter shutdowns, and short - term demand is difficult to improve [3] Factors to Watch - Macro policies, supply - side production reduction, and downstream demand [5]