Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing dramatic fluctuations in 2025, with prices soaring to historical highs before a significant drop, raising questions about the sustainability of the silver shortage and its potential to outperform gold [1][5]. Financial Drivers - Expectations of interest rate cuts and the extreme deviation of the gold-silver ratio are key financial drivers for silver prices. The market anticipates a 99.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October and a cumulative 50 basis points by December, significantly lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver [1][2]. - The gold-silver ratio reached over 100 in April 2025, indicating that silver was undervalued relative to gold, with a 70% probability of a price correction within 4-6 months when the ratio exceeds 80 [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The industrial demand for silver is surging, particularly in the photovoltaic and electric vehicle sectors, with a projected global silver demand of 8,800 tons in 2025 due to a supply-demand gap [3][4]. - The supply side is constrained, with 70% of silver sourced from copper and lead-zinc mines, and potential legislative changes in Mexico could further limit silver exports, exacerbating the supply shortage [4]. Market Sentiment and Technical Adjustments - Recent price corrections are attributed to market sentiment and profit-taking after a rapid price increase, with speculative positions reaching near historical danger levels [5][6]. - The easing of geopolitical tensions has reduced safe-haven demand for silver, contributing to price volatility [6]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term fundamentals for silver remain strong, with ongoing industrial demand and a tight supply situation expected to persist at least until mid-2026 [7][8]. - Predictions indicate that silver prices could rise significantly, with estimates suggesting potential increases of 15%-20% in the near term, outperforming gold [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry in China [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of future positioning rather than past defensive strategies, suggesting that investors should focus on opportunities for excess returns in the upcoming year [9][15]. - Gold prices are expected to experience high volatility in the short term but are projected to reach new highs in the medium term due to credit and safe-haven demand [16]. - The rare earth sector is anticipated to maintain its strategic importance despite short-term price declines, with a widening supply-demand gap expected in the medium term [17]. - The copper market is viewed positively, with expectations of price increases in the medium term, encouraging investors to buy on dips [17]. Summary by Sections 1. Non-Ferrous Metals - Gold: Short-term volatility is high, but medium-term prospects are strong with expectations of new highs supported by credit and safe-haven demand [16]. - Rare Earths: Short-term price declines do not diminish the medium-term strategic position, with an anticipated widening supply-demand gap [17]. - Copper: Strong medium-term price outlook, with a recommendation to buy on dips due to expected economic recovery and increased manufacturing investment [17]. 2. Steel Industry - Profitability: Short-term profitability is under pressure, with both prices and costs declining [28]. - Supply and Demand: Weekly rebar consumption decreased to 2.2 million tons, down 8.84% week-on-week and 14.77% year-on-year [24][18]. - Inventory: Both social and steel mill inventories have increased, indicating a potential oversupply situation [25]. - Prices: The overall steel price index has slightly decreased, with specific products like hot-rolled steel experiencing a notable drop [38]. 3. New Energy Metals - Supply: Significant increase in lithium production, with August 2025 output reaching 80,040 tons, up 46.54% year-on-year [42]. - Demand: High growth in new energy vehicle production and sales, with August 2025 figures showing a 26% increase year-on-year [48]. - Prices: Lithium prices have risen, with battery-grade lithium carbonate averaging 75,750 yuan per ton, reflecting a 3.55% week-on-week increase [55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The escalation of the China - US trade war has led to a volatile downward trend in crude oil prices. The overall valuation of styrene is moderately low. The supply side of styrene faces significant pressure, while the demand side enters a seasonal peak season. After the large - scale downstream production of styrene is launched in the fourth quarter, the supply - demand gap may increase, and the futures price may reach the bottom [11][13]. - This week's forecast: For pure benzene (BZ2603), the reference volatility range is (5800 - 6100); for styrene (EB2511), the reference volatility range is (6800 - 7100). The recommended strategy is to wait and see [13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 01. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Conditions**: The China - US trade war has escalated again, causing crude oil prices to fluctuate downward. The weekly decline of styrene shows (futures > cost > spot), the basis strengthens, the BZN spread rises, and the profit of non - integrated EB plants decreases [11]. - **Cost**: Last week, the price of pure benzene in East China fell by - 3.12%, and the pure benzene operating rate remained high and volatile [11]. - **Supply**: The utilization rate of EB production capacity is 73.61%, a month - on - month increase of 0.56% and a year - on - year increase of 8.73%, but a decrease of - 7.99% compared with the five - year average. According to the production plan, the greatest production pressure for the whole year is in the fourth quarter, and the supply side may face pressure under the background of high operating rates [11]. - **Imports and Exports**: In August, the domestic import volume of pure benzene was 4.412 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 13.13% and a year - on - year increase of 8.38%, mainly from the Middle East. The import volume of EB in August was 269,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.77% and a year - on - year increase of 29.29%. The port inventory of pure benzene and the EB inventory in Jiangsu ports have been reduced from high levels [11]. - **Demand**: The weighted operating rate of downstream three S products is 38.81%, a month - on - month increase of 0.70%. The operating rate of PS is 55.00%, a month - on - month increase of 0.73% and a year - on - year decrease of - 2.36%. The operating rate of EPS is 41.00%, a month - on - month increase of 0.64% and a year - on - year decrease of - 31.28%. The operating rate of ABS is 73.00%, a month - on - month increase of 0.69% and a year - on - year increase of 19.09%. With the arrival of the seasonal peak season, downstream demand has slightly improved [11]. - **Inventory**: The in - plant inventory of EB is 186,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 3.62% and a year - on - year increase of 6.48%. The EB inventory in Jiangsu ports is 196,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 2.67% and a year - on - year increase of 372.36%. The port inventory has been reduced from high levels [12]. - **Strategy**: The recommended strategy is to wait and see, with a forecast range of 5800 - 6100 for pure benzene (BZ2603) and 6800 - 7100 for styrene (EB2511) [13]. 02. Futures and Spot Markets - The styrene price has been continuously declining, and multiple charts show the historical trends of styrene spot price, futures contract price, basis, trading volume, open interest, and spreads [16][20][22]. 03. Profit and Inventory - **Inventory**: Multiple charts show the historical trends of styrene port inventory, factory inventory, and pure benzene port inventory [37][39]. - **Profit**: The profit of styrene is fluctuating at a low level compared to the same period in history. Charts show the profit trends of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation and POSM processes, as well as the production capacity share of the top ten styrene producers [43][48]. 04. Cost Side - **Pure Benzene Industry Chain**: The profit of naphtha has rebounded significantly. Pure benzene has maintained inventory reduction in 2025, and the supply - demand gap will increase quarter - on - quarter in the fourth quarter. The price difference between the US and South Korea for pure benzene is fluctuating upward, and the inventory of caprolactam plants is oscillating at a high level [55][59][66]. - **Production and Demand**: A table shows the production and demand situation of pure benzene and its downstream products in 2025, including production capacity, production time, and supply - demand gaps [60]. 05. Supply Side - **Production Capacity and Supply - Demand Gap**: The supply - demand gap of styrene will increase in the fourth quarter of 2025. Tables show the production and demand situation of styrene and its downstream products, including production capacity, production time, and supply - demand gaps [106][108]. - **Production and Import - Export**: The styrene production volume is oscillating at a high level compared to the same period. Charts show the historical trends of styrene production, import volume, export volume, and operating rate [114][116][118]. 06. Demand Side - **Downstream 3S Production Capacity**: Charts show the production capacity, output, and growth rate trends of ABS, PS, and EPS [126]. - **Operating Rate and Profit**: The operating rates of EPS and PS are oscillating at a low level compared to the same period, while the operating rate of ABS has rebounded from a low level. Charts show the operating rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS, as well as the inventory situations of downstream products [129][133][135]. - **End - User Demand**: The production volume of washing machines has a moderately high year - on - year growth rate, and charts show the sales volume, production volume, and inventory trends of household refrigerators and washing machines [157][158][150].

Core Viewpoint - The recent strength in silver prices is supported by macroeconomic policies, supply-demand dynamics, and the gold-silver ratio recovery [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic and Financial Factors - The Federal Reserve began a rate-cutting cycle in September, leading to strong market expectations for multiple rate cuts within the year, enhancing the attractiveness of precious metals like silver [1] - Ongoing geopolitical risks have led to an influx of safe-haven investments into silver, which is often referred to as "the poor man's gold," resulting in both speculative and institutional capital inflows that have driven prices past historical key levels [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global silver supply-demand gap is projected to reach a historical record of 120 million ounces by 2025, with industrial demand accounting for over 50% of this figure [1] - The photovoltaic industry is identified as a core driver of silver demand, with global solar installation capacity expected to reach 655 GW by 2025, and silver paste consumption in solar applications representing 25% of total demand [1] - Additional demand from sectors such as electric vehicles and 5G technology further supports the long-term fundamentals for silver [1] Group 3: Gold-Silver Ratio Recovery - The gold-silver ratio has decreased from 106 in April to 85, yet remains above the historical average range of 40-80, indicating significant potential for silver to catch up [1] - Should gold prices continue to rise and the gold-silver ratio move towards its historical mean, silver theoretically has considerable upside potential [1]

Group 1: ETF Performance and Market Trends - The non-ferrous metal ETF (512400) experienced a rise of over 2%, currently up 1.28%, with a turnover of 3.85% and a transaction volume of 745 million yuan [1] - As of October 13, the latest scale of the non-ferrous metal ETF reached 18.926 billion yuan, with a total of 1.0525 billion shares, both hitting record highs since inception [1] - The ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past 7 days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 1.208 billion yuan, totaling 4.195 billion yuan in net inflows [1] Group 2: Rare Earth and Metal Supply Dynamics - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced export controls on certain rare earth materials, effective November 8, which includes semiconductor-related items [1] - Analysts believe that China's strict export controls will further support rare earth prices, as the country remains the only one with a complete rare earth industry chain [1] - Citic Securities noted that the supply of rare earths is becoming more rigid, with the demand expected to improve as the traditional peak season approaches, indicating a positive supply-demand balance [2] Group 3: Copper and Cobalt Market Outlook - UBS predicts that the market outlook for copper is increasingly driven by supply-side factors, with expectations of price increases and a projected demand growth of 2.2% and 2.9% for refined copper in 2025 and 2026, respectively [2] - The supply gap for copper is expected to reach 53,000 tons in 2025 and 87,000 tons in 2026 [2] - The government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo has set cobalt export quotas for 2025-2027, with significant reductions in supply expected if production remains stable and exports are halted for about 8 months [2]

Group 1: PMI and Economic Indicators - In September 2025, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment[1] - The production index for September was reported at 51.9%, up from 50.8% in August, reflecting a significant rebound in production activity[2] - The supply-demand gap widened to 2.2 percentage points, indicating that production continues to outpace demand[2] Group 2: Price and Inventory Trends - The PMI for factory prices and raw material purchase prices decreased to 48.2% and 53.2%, respectively, with a notable drop in factory prices attributed to changes in consumer subsidy policies[3] - The average price of rebar, hot-rolled coils, and wire rods fell by 1.83%, 1.48%, and 4.1% month-on-month, reaching 3264 CNY/ton, 3406 CNY/ton, and 3205 CNY/ton respectively[3] - Finished goods inventory index increased by 1.4 percentage points to 48.2%, indicating a tight balance in inventory levels[4] Group 3: Business Performance by Size - Large enterprises saw an increase in their index by 0.5 percentage points to 50.8%, while small enterprises rose by 1.6 percentage points to 48.2%[4] - Medium-sized enterprises experienced a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points to 48.8%[4] - The construction sector's business activity index rose to 49.3%, but both housing and civil engineering indices remained below 50%, indicating ongoing challenges[4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The September PMI rebound and production expansion suggest economic resilience, but the continuous contraction in PMI over six months highlights underlying economic pressures[5] - The fluctuation in inventory indices indicates that the economy has not yet stabilized to provide firms with consistent expectations[5] - Future export pressures and the impact of subsidy policies on production and pricing remain critical factors for economic health[7]

Group 1: Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices have declined for three consecutive days, with WTI crude closing at $62.68 per barrel, influenced by reduced concerns over "secondary tariffs" and contract rollovers [3][5] - The market's initial fear of tariff increases affecting oil demand has eased, leading to a decrease in upward pressure on oil prices [3] - The short-term fluctuations in oil prices are attributed to trading activities rather than a change in long-term trends [5] Group 2: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices have increased by 1.06%, closing at $3682.84 per ounce, following the Federal Reserve's announcement of a 25 basis point rate cut [3][5] - Despite a temporary drop after the Fed's announcement, the market is stabilizing and seeking a new support level, with expectations of further rate cuts this year [3] - The long-term support for gold prices is driven by monetary policy easing, which has contributed to a 39% increase in gold prices this year [5] Group 3: Copper Market Outlook - Copper prices have risen by 0.49%, nearing $10,000 per ton, with expectations of a supply shortage and recovery in global manufacturing next year [4] - Citigroup's report indicates that while demand may face pressure in the coming months, copper prices are expected to reach $12,000 per ton next year [4] - The anticipated average copper price for the fourth quarter is projected to be around $10,000 per ton, reflecting a stable market response to future supply-demand dynamics [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is optimistic [3] Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of tariffs on the copper and aluminum markets, indicating that the copper market is experiencing a "split" due to tariff policies, which could lead to a potential return of copper processing to the U.S. [18][31] - The aluminum market is facing tight supply conditions, with fluctuations in alumina prices significantly affecting profitability [49][50] - The report anticipates that the copper supply-demand gap will support long-term price stability, with projected deficits in the coming years [44][46] Summary by Sections Copper and Aluminum Price Trends - The report reviews the price trends of copper and aluminum, noting significant fluctuations influenced by tariff expectations and supply chain disruptions [12][15] - Copper prices have been affected by U.S. tariff announcements, leading to a drop in both LME and domestic copper prices [19][31] Tariff Impacts on Copper Market - The U.S. has imposed a 50% tariff on imported copper products, which is expected to impact the domestic copper processing industry significantly [19][31] - The report suggests that the tariff policy may lead to a return of copper processing to the U.S., with potential increases in domestic processing costs [31] Supply Constraints in the Aluminum Market - The aluminum market is experiencing supply constraints, with alumina prices being a core factor affecting profitability [50][54] - The report notes that while there are disruptions in alumina supply from Guinea, overall imports have increased, indicating a gradual recovery [50][51] Long-term Supply-Demand Outlook for Copper - The report projects a supply-demand gap for copper, with deficits expected in 2025 and 2026, which could support higher price levels in the long term [44][46] - The global refined copper production is expected to increase, but the growth rate may be limited due to declining ore grades and production challenges [44][46]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The planting weather of US soybeans in the outer market remains favorable, showing a weak trend; the downside space of the near - term contracts of the domestic soybean system is limited, and the market is gradually shifting to price the supply - demand gap logic of the far - term contracts; the rapeseed system has strengthened in the short term due to the relief of its own warehouse receipt pressure [4]. - There is a strong bullish sentiment for the far - term contracts under the supply - demand gap, and the export premium of Brazilian soybeans supports the price of the far - term contracts from the cost side [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Range Forecast - The price range of soybean meal in the next month is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.8%. The price range of rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.7% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.2% [3]. 3.2 Oil Hedging Strategy | Behavior Orientation | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Trader Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures according to enterprise inventory to lock in profits and make up for production costs | M2601 | Sell | 25 | 3300 - 3400 | | Feed Mill Procurement Management | Short | Buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs | M2601 | Buy | 50 | 2850 - 3000 | | Oil Mill Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures according to enterprise situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs | M2601 | Sell | 50 | 3100 - 3200 | [3] 3.3 Core Contradictions - The outer - market US soybean planting weather is favorable and shows a weak trend; the near - term contracts of the domestic soybean system have limited downside space, and the market is pricing the far - term supply - demand gap; the rapeseed system strengthens due to the relief of warehouse receipt pressure [4]. 3.4 Bullish and Bearish Interpretations - Bullish factors: The basis has rebounded due to some oil mills' shutdowns, and the downside space for the subsequent spot - futures convergence of the 09 contract is limited. The soybean arrivals are expected to have a gap after December. The near - term rapeseed meal is stronger than soybean meal due to warehouse receipt issues, and the far - term rapeseed supply has uncertainties leading to accelerated marginal destocking [5][6]. 3.5 Oil Futures Prices | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3072 | 7 | 0.23% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2762 | 11 | 0.4% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 3026 | 3 | 0.1% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2463 | 24 | 0.98% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2402 | 15 | 0.63% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2745 | 21 | 0.77% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 990.5 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.1868 | 0.0026 | 0.04% | [6] 3.6 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads | Spread Type | Value | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 310 | - 4 | | M05 - 09 | - 264 | 8 | | M09 - 01 | - 46 | - 4 | | RM01 - 05 | 61 | 9 | | RM05 - 09 | - 343 | - 6 | | RM09 - 01 | 282 | - 3 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Spot | 2900 | - 30 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Basis | - 126 | - 33 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2562 | 11 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | - 162 | - 35 | | Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 338 | - 30 | | Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 281 | - 18 | [10] 3.7 Oil Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (23%) | 4655.5086 | 29.7162 | - 0.0771 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 3970.92 | 8.71 | 38.09 | | US Gulf (3%) - US Gulf (23%) Cost Difference | - 756.9933 | 2.162 | 12.6856 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (23%) | - 724.9886 | 29.7162 | 136.5096 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 106.2403 | - 25.7061 | 0.5465 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 296 | 86 | 218 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 479 | 104 | 238 | [10]

Core Viewpoint - There is a growing perception among economists that Japan's economy may be experiencing a "supply shortage" due to production capacity not keeping up with orders, contrasting with the government's assessment of demand deficiency [1][2]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Gap - The supply and demand gap is a crucial indicator for assessing economic conditions and price trends, with negative values indicating economic stagnation and positive values suggesting overheating [1]. - The Bank of Japan and the Cabinet Office have reported negative supply and demand gaps in recent years, leading to repeated fiscal stimulus measures aimed at boosting demand [1]. - The Cabinet Office has not declared an end to deflation despite a 3% increase in prices, primarily because the supply and demand gap remains negative [1]. Group 2: Discrepancies in Estimates - Private sector estimates, such as those from Societe Generale and Mizuho Research, indicate that Japan's supply and demand gap has been positive since late 2021 and mid-2022, respectively [2]. - The discrepancy between official and private estimates is significant, with a difference of 14 trillion yen (approximately 88 billion USD) reported for the first quarter of 2025 [2]. - Economists attribute the positive supply and demand gap to severe supply capacity shortages rather than economic overheating, particularly highlighting labor shortages [2]. Group 3: Labor Market and Productivity - The potential growth rate, which reflects supply capacity, is influenced by labor, capital investment, and technological innovation, with labor time decreasing due to reforms [3]. - Labor time in Japan is expected to remain below 2019 levels until 2024, primarily due to policies limiting overtime and promoting paid leave [3]. - The Bank of Japan acknowledges the negative impact of labor shortages on supply capacity, indicating a more severe labor market tightness than what macroeconomic supply and demand gaps suggest [3]. Group 4: Investment and Economic Growth - Insufficient investment in machinery has also hindered economic growth, with Japan's capital investment contribution being only one-eighth of that of the United States since 2020 [4]. - Redirecting retained earnings towards investments in growth areas such as artificial intelligence is deemed essential for economic progress [4].