Investment Strategy & Market Dynamics - Natixis explores whether Chinese companies' investment decisions can address the "involution" problem [1] Report Focus - The report analyzes the investment decisions of Chinese companies in the context of economic challenges [1]

进入盛夏，外卖大战烽火又起。 7月12日周六，继月初的补贴大战后，美团和淘宝再次祭出18元起跳的大额红包，并附赠各种零零碎碎 的免单券、兑换券、抽奖券。补贴带来的后果非常明显，各平台外卖订单数量不断刷新纪录，从淘宝宣 布闪购订单数超过8000万，到美团即时零售日订单突破1.5亿，只用了一周的时间。 7月18日，市场监管总局约谈饿了么、美团、京东三家平台企业，要求相关平台企业严格遵守《电子商 务法》《反不正当竞争法》《食品安全法》等法律法规，进一步规范促销行为，理性参与竞争，共同构 建消费者、商家、外卖骑手和平台企业等多方共赢的良好生态，促进餐饮服务行业规范健康持续发展。 这是继2025年5月份五部门约谈外卖平台后，三巨头再次被约谈。 为什么外卖大战的烽火，一直从3月份持续到7月份，而且到目前为止未有停止下来的趋势？最为可能的 原因是，外卖这一业态的逻辑发生了变化，它不只是一个行业，而是成为撬动其它领域入口，而即时零 售则是各大平台今后着力的主战场。 今年2月，京东凭借"全年免佣金+骑手五险一金"的组合拳高调入场，而京东创始人刘强东更是给京东外 卖下达了利润率不超过5%的命令。尽管后来业界证明外卖行业5%的利润 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the phenomenon of "involution" in enterprises, highlighting both proactive and reactive strategies companies are adopting to navigate this challenge [2] Group 1 - The "anti-involution" campaign has been initiated, focusing on breaking free from the price war dilemma [2] - The discussion emphasizes the need for companies to innovate and differentiate themselves rather than engage in destructive competition [2]

Group 1 - The core issue of "involution" stems from an imbalance in the manufacturing and service industries, with manufacturing employment exceeding actual demand while service employment remains insufficient [2][9] - In 2023, manufacturing employment was significantly above potential levels (+0.2 billion), while service employment showed a notable shortfall (-0.4 billion) [9][106] - Manufacturing investment remains high despite declining revenues, indicating an "involution" phenomenon, while service investment is approximately 1.5 trillion yuan below potential levels [18][106] Group 2 - There is a substantial gap in consumer spending, with a shortfall of about 6,400 billion yuan in goods consumption and nearly 30,000 billion yuan in service consumption [3][27] - In 2024, the per capita gap in service consumption is projected to be 2,093 yuan, highlighting a significant unmet demand in the service sector [27][106] Group 3 - Long-term solutions to "involution" involve shifting focus from manufacturing supply to service supply, as global experiences indicate a transition in consumer demand from goods to services at certain GDP and urbanization levels [4][107] - The aging population and smaller household sizes are expected to further drive demand for service consumption, particularly in areas like healthcare and leisure [45][52] Group 4 - Current policies are actively promoting service consumption, investment, and exports, which are seen as the new "three drivers" of economic growth [6][80] - Measures such as extending statutory holidays and encouraging private investment in the service sector are expected to enhance service demand and investment [91][109] - The recovery of inbound tourism is anticipated to significantly contribute to service exports, with potential growth in travel exports projected at 60.5% year-on-year for 2024 [97][109]

文/刘杰 反内卷的风逐步扩散，金融行业自然也概莫能外。以当前内卷态势最显著的如外卖、新能源车等行业为 例，共性特征是产品差异化小，区分度低。目前看来，银行理财行业在某种程度上也很符合这一特征。 转型至今，理财规模已经重新站上历史新高，但是行业整体盈利能力并未实现同步增长，降管理费的竞 争此起彼伏，"增量不增收"是行业内卷力度加大的重要表征。我们可以从产品、投资、渠道、宣传等方 面逐个细数： 产品端：仍有大量几乎"无波"中短期限理财产品 理财公司牌照刚开始发放时，市场就认为真正的全能资管牌照来了，因为资产配置可投范围和空间很有 优势。但时至今日，理财行业的资产配置结构过去几年并未发生实质性的变化，核心问题是负债端风险 偏好低且期限较短，很难真正跨周期投资。 但是在"创新"技术和策略以迎合客户所好方面，理财机构却动作频频。从2022年末赎回潮之后开始增配 存款，发行可以嵌套保险资管投资高收益的协议存款，再到借道信托计提"特别信托利益"实现平滑机 制，以及所谓的自建估值模型等，所有这些行为的目的都是创造所谓的波动较低的、收益又有优势的理 财产品来上规模，好在种种行为均逐步被监管注意到并叫停整改，最新又有多家机构成体 ...

Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - In June, industrial enterprise profits decreased by 4.5% year-on-year, a narrowing of 4.6 percentage points from May, but still in a contraction zone[3] - Cumulative year-on-year profit decline was 1.8%, widening by 0.7 percentage points compared to May[3] - The main reason for the narrowing monthly decline was a reduction in operating cost drag, with its negative contribution decreasing from 9.7 percentage points in May to 3.9 percentage points in June[3] Group 2: Revenue and Demand Dynamics - June operating revenue grew by 1.0% year-on-year, remaining flat from May and marking a near 7-month low[4] - This contrasts sharply with the industrial added value, which saw a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, the second-highest growth in 16 months[4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.6% year-on-year in June, the deepest decline in nearly 23 months, indicating intensified price competition[4] Group 3: Profit Pressure and Cost Dynamics - Profit pressure is transmitted upstream, forcing the mining industry to pass on profits to downstream sectors[5] - Cumulative profit margins for mining, utilities, and manufacturing were 16.95%, 6.79%, and 4.46% respectively, showing marginal improvements due to falling coal prices[5] - The overall expense ratio for industrial enterprises rose to 8.38% in June, up 9 basis points from May, highlighting intensified competition[5] Group 4: Policy Recommendations - To alleviate excessive competition, monetary policy should stabilize real estate expectations, and fiscal policy should expand effective domestic demand[6] - The central government is expected to issue special bonds to support durable consumer goods subsidies and infrastructure investments if export growth declines[6] Group 5: Risk Factors - Risks include potential underperformance of monetary easing and fiscal expansion measures[7]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is experiencing intense price competition, leading to a significant decline in profitability across the sector, with the average price of square lithium iron phosphate power cells dropping to 0.32 yuan/Wh [1][6]. Industry Overview - The market is dominated by a few key players, with CATL and BYD holding over 65% market share as of June 2025, while other companies like Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL), Guoxuan High-Tech, and others make up the "second tier" with individual shares between 2% and 8% [3][4]. - The second-tier companies are facing widespread profitability challenges, with companies like XINWANDA reporting a net loss of 1.587 billion yuan in their battery business for 2024 [4][9]. Price Competition and Market Dynamics - The price war has led to a situation where 65 out of 104 listed lithium battery companies in A-shares reported a decline in net profits in 2024, with over 60 companies experiencing a drop in gross margins [6][8]. - The average global lithium battery pack price fell to a historical low of $115/kWh in 2025, with China's price at $94/kWh, the lowest globally [6]. Technological and Structural Challenges - The industry is facing structural challenges due to rapid changes in mainstream technology routes, with lithium iron phosphate battery installations increasing by 73% year-on-year, capturing over 81% of the market share, while ternary batteries saw a 10.8% decline [8][9]. - The profitability of leading companies like CATL serves as a benchmark for others, with CATL achieving a net profit of 50.745 billion yuan in 2024, despite the price war [9]. Cost Control Strategies - Companies are focusing on cost control as a primary strategy for survival, with significant emphasis on manufacturing efficiency, design cost reduction, and management optimization [13][14]. - For instance, Bee Nest Energy aims to achieve profitability by 2026, with 80% of the contribution expected from cost reductions [14]. Differentiation and Market Positioning - To break through the competitive landscape, companies are exploring differentiated technology routes, with Bee Nest Energy pursuing a dual strategy of both ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries [18][20]. - The demand for higher energy density products in specific markets, such as overseas high-end clients, is driving this strategic choice [19][20]. Capital Investment and Future Outlook - Continuous and substantial capital investment is necessary for both cost reduction and differentiation strategies, with companies like Yiyuan Lithium Energy and XINWANDA planning to tap into capital markets for funding [21]. - The competitive landscape is expected to evolve, with companies needing long-term patience and commitment to navigate the challenges of the trillion-dollar market [22].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of stabilizing employment and supporting job retention through government measures aimed at reducing costs for businesses and encouraging job creation [1][3][37] Group 2 - The government aims to stabilize employment by lowering labor costs for companies, which are the main drivers of job creation, especially in the private sector that contributes over 80% of urban employment [3][4] - Key measures include increasing unemployment insurance refunds for companies that do not lay off employees, with large enterprises receiving up to 50% and small and medium enterprises up to 90% of their contributions [5][4] - Expanding the scope of special loans for companies that commit to not laying off employees, allowing them to access preferential interest rates [6][4] - Allowing companies facing operational difficulties to apply for a temporary deferral of social insurance payments, effectively providing interest-free loans to cash-strapped small and medium enterprises [7][4] Group 3 - The government is incentivizing businesses to create new jobs by providing financial support, particularly for small and medium enterprises in key industries [9][10] - Expanding social insurance subsidies for small and medium enterprises that sign one-year labor contracts with key employment groups, covering 25% of individual contributions for one year [10][9] - Offering a one-time subsidy of up to 1500 yuan for companies that hire unemployed youth aged 16-24 and maintain social insurance contributions for three months [11][10] Group 4 - The article highlights the need to enhance workers' skills to address the issue of "skills frictional unemployment," where job seekers lack the necessary skills for available positions [13][12] - Government initiatives will include organizing skill training for key groups and encouraging vocational schools to enroll unemployed individuals, with relaxed age restrictions to benefit older job seekers [14][15] Group 5 - Employment assistance measures will be strengthened, including a mechanism to help disadvantaged graduates find quality job opportunities and ensuring timely unemployment insurance payments [17][16] - The article stresses the importance of maintaining low unemployment rates to ensure social stability and economic health, as high unemployment can lead to increased crime and social unrest [18][17]

Group 1 - The summer activities in Shijingshan District are themed "Exciting Summer in Jingxi," integrating cultural, commercial, and tourism resources to offer diverse experiences and promotions [15][17] - The construction of 7,843 sets of resettlement housing in Yangzhen's urban renewal project is progressing, indicating a focus on urban development in Shunyi [11][13] - The opening of an 8,000 square meter lotus pond in Yuyuantan Park enhances summer leisure options for residents, promoting outdoor activities [2][4] Group 2 - The "Seven Down, Eight Up" flood prevention period has officially begun in China, with predictions of varied rainfall distribution and increased extreme weather events [23] - The increase in outpatient visits at children's hospitals during summer highlights health concerns related to lack of exercise among children, leading to various health issues [17][21]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fundamental shift in societal contradictions, emphasizing that the core issue is no longer insufficient productivity but rather overproduction and distribution imbalance [3][6]. Group 1: Understanding "Involution" - Involution is defined as a systemic, exhausting competition for diminishing resources rather than genuine competition that expands opportunities [4][5]. - The "cinema dilemma" metaphor illustrates how individuals collectively exhaust themselves without improving their situation, highlighting the futility of involution [5]. Group 2: Wealth Distribution Issues - The article argues that the real issue is not the inability to grow the economic "cake," but rather the disproportionate allocation of wealth, where capital returns significantly outpace labor returns [6][7]. - A vicious cycle is created where income inequality leads to reduced consumption, which in turn results in lower corporate profits and further income suppression for workers [7][8]. Group 3: Emergence of Disruptors - Certain entrepreneurs are identified as disruptors who challenge the traditional view of employees as costs, instead treating them as core assets [10]. - Examples include JD's Liu Qiangdong, who prioritizes employee welfare and job security, and Huawei's Ren Zhengfei, who emphasizes employee ownership and engagement [10]. Group 4: Future Directions - The article suggests two main directions for resolving these issues: a value distribution model centered on laborers and creators, and the rise of new organizational forms like platform economies and individual entrepreneurship [12][13]. - It emphasizes the importance of individuals identifying their unique value within the value creation chain, moving away from traditional employment paths [13][14].