在2024年底债市走出快牛后，2025年一季度利率出现了剧烈的调整；美国关税风波开启后，利率再次快 速震荡向下。随着对关税政策和预期的反复博弈，股和债都在波动中反复寻找相对均衡的点位，但基本 面方面外贸带来的冲击比较现实，国内经济以新兴产业为引领，依赖传统城投和地产等融资相对冗余行 业的模式逐渐淡去。在内外部现在的背景下，央行的货币政策可能更被需要，其进一步宽松措施的必要 性也更强，但其将综合考虑时代背景和宏观经济整体，节奏并不确定。二季度，重要期限收益率或有突 破前低的可能性，但波动仍将持续存在，利率风险仍需要重视。 一季度，在经济尚未明显改善的情况下，央行货币政策定力相对较强，货币市场资金成本相对较高。监 管或有更多综合因素的考虑，包括年初稳定汇率的需求，前期关税预期并未如后来如此强烈，小阳春数 据有亮点，权益市场在科技股带动下情绪较强等。但是，货币政策的支持性立场始终明确，后续更强的 货币投放可能如市场预期，海外冲击带来国内风险较快提升，国内财政政策加码后对更多货币支持的需 要，股市、楼市等风险的累积和集中释放。目前来看，由于美国的强硬态度，关税问题短期无法解决， 相应对冲政策也将越来越重要。 关税政策 ...

博弈资金进一步转松？ 2025 年 04 月 30 日 ➢ 刚性的资金、盘整的债市 利率专题 4 月以来，资金面整体呈现"供需结构改善、价格相对稳定"的状态，在市 场对于资金面季节性转松的期待中，公开市场投放确实出现了改善，但资金价格 仍在政策利率上方窄幅震荡。 而受制于较为刚性的资金价格，短端下行空间已相对有限，长端的约束在加 大，当前 10 年-1 年国债利差仍在 2024 年以来的较低分位，曲线平坦化已进入 相对极致的状态，长端继续下探的动力也相对不足。 当前随着债市步入横盘震荡期，交易难度在增加，对此，如何看待？ ➢ 货币政策取向再理解 由于当前实体消费和投资意愿待进一步提振，仅货币政策的扩张在提振经济 上或难以发挥出最大功效，若增量资金不断涌入债市、资金利率持续处于偏低水 平，也将增加利率风险。此外，当前外部环境复杂多变，货币政策保持定力，或 也旨在为后续应对留足空间。而运行于政策利率上方、呈现窄幅震荡的资金利率 便是多重考量下的均衡之举，与货币政策的支持性立场不矛盾，具体而言： （1）近年来，我国货币信贷增长已逐渐由供给约束转为需求约束，金融机 构此前在"规模情结"的驱使下，信贷投放力度较大，超出 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Core Viewpoints - Most commodities are expected to be in a state of oscillation in the short term, with some showing potential for decline or upside. Amid uncertainties in tariffs and changing policies, investors are advised to be cautious and adjust their strategies according to market conditions [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - For stock index futures, it's recommended to hold a light position and wait for a clear market direction. Due to high overseas uncertainties during the May Day holiday and low option volatility, consider a double - buy strategy for stock index options before the holiday [1]. - The bond futures are favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upside [1]. - Gold is in short - term oscillation adjustment, but the long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper has decent downstream demand, but there is a risk of price correction due to trade frictions [1]. - Aluminum prices oscillate due to uncertainties in global trade frictions [1]. - Alumina's supply - demand pattern has improved, with limited downside but lack of upward momentum [1]. - Zinc has support from low near - month inventory but faces fundamental suppression, presenting short - selling opportunities [1]. - Nickel prices oscillate after bottom - up repair. Pay attention to the cost support of electrowon nickel and beware of policy changes [1]. - Stainless steel futures oscillate in the short term. It's advisable to wait and see, and the industrial side should focus on policy changes and steel mill production schedules [1]. - Tin has a risk of supply premium disappearing as the复产 expectation in Low - Bang strengthens [1]. Industrial and Energy - Related Commodities - Industrial silicon is in a state of oversupply, with demand not improving and inventory pressure not relieved [1]. - Polysilicon's抢装潮 is ending, with demand expected to decline in the second half of the year. There is a need for a rebound after a large short - term decline [1]. - Carbonate lithium has a pattern of supply exceeding demand, with downstream maintaining just - in - time purchases [1]. - Steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil face downward pressure on opening prices due to trade disputes [1]. - Iron ore is under short - term pressure due to tariff policies and market sentiment [1]. - Manganese silicon and silicon iron oscillate, with cost and supply - demand factors at play [1]. - Glass and soda ash face supply - demand imbalances, with prices under pressure [1]. - Coke and coking coal are in a relatively oversupplied situation, and industrial customers can seize hedging opportunities [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are affected by weather and market sentiment, and it's recommended to wait and see before the holiday [1]. - Cotton prices may be affected by the trend of crude oil and the substitution effect between chemical fiber and cotton [1]. - Sugar prices are affected by overseas supply shortages and domestic high inventory [1]. - Corn may have a correction risk after the hype cools down, with a long - term bullish logic [1]. - Soybean meal is expected to oscillate weakly, and M09 is recommended to be bought at low prices [1]. Forestry and Livestock - Pulp is recommended to be short - sold or hedged due to weak cost support and entering the off - season [1]. - Logs have high inventory and no short - term positive factors, expected to oscillate at a low level [1]. - Pigs have a clear downward expectation in the futures market due to increased supply and lack of downstream highlights [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt are affected by factors such as tariffs, OPEC + policies, and cost - demand relationships [1]. - Rubber products such as natural rubber and BR rubber oscillate, with weak fundamentals [1]. - PTA is bearish due to device maintenance and weak market sentiment [1]. - Ethylene glycol, styrene, urea, methanol, PE, PP, PVC, and caustic soda all have their own supply - demand and market sentiment factors affecting their price trends [1]. Others - For the container shipping European line, the peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to the 6 - 8 reverse spread [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **看多品种**: 五大、短纤 [1] - **看空品种**: 铜、PTA、苯乙烯、尿素 [1] - **震荡品种**: 股指、国债、黄金、白银、铝、氧化铝、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、工业硅、多晶硅、螺纹钢、热卷、铁矿石、锰硅、硅铁、玻璃、焦炭、棕榈油、豆油、棉花、生猪、燃料油、沪胶、乙二醇、甲醇、PE、PP、PVC、烧碱、菜油 [1] - **观望品种**: 纸浆 [1] - **震荡偏空品种**: 原木 [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - 五一期间海外不确定性大，建议部分品种轻仓过节，关注国内外宏观及资源国政策变动 [1] - 不同品种受关税、贸易摩擦、供需格局、成本、政策等因素影响，走势各异，投资策略需根据各品种具体情况制定 [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - 股指期货短期轻仓观望，节前可考虑介入股指期权双头策略；国债受资产荒和弱经济利好，但短期央行提示利率风险压制上涨空间；黄金短期震荡调整，中长期上涨逻辑未变；白银关税不确定性高，商品属性限制银价上方空间 [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - 铜下游需求尚可，但贸易摩擦影响下价格反弹后有回调风险；铝价因全球贸易摩擦不确定性震荡运行；氧化铝供需格局好转，下行空间有限但上行缺乏动力；锌关注逢高空机会；镍和不锈钢受关税、印尼资源税政策影响，短期震荡运行，关注成本支撑和政策变动 [1] - 锡价因曼相矿区复产预期，短期上方压力较大；工业硅供过于求，进入低估值区间；多晶硅短期跌幅大，有反弹需求；碳酸锂供给未收缩，库存累库 [1] Black Metals - 螺纹钢、热卷受贸易风波影响，短期风险偏好差；铁矿石受关税政策影响短期承压；锰硅库存高但成本有支撑；硅铁成本松动但产区减产；玻璃需求脉冲式释放；焦煤和焦炭供需相对过剩，关注期现正套和卖出套保机会 [1] Agricultural Products - 棕榈油和豆油资金节前避险情绪强，建议观望；棉花受原油和化纤替代影响，需求或偏弱；原糖因海外担忧价格上行，国内产量大增压制内盘；五大余粮趋紧且产区干旱，盘面预期震荡偏强；豆粕供应预期改善，建议等待低位布局多单 [1] - 纸浆受贸易摩擦影响暂无利好，盘面贴水建议观望；原木到船和库存高位，贸易摩擦利空需求；生猪存栏和出栏体重增加，盘面贴水现货 [1] Energy and Chemicals - 原油影响棉纺需求，PTA因装置检修和市场传闻看空；乙二醇装置检修；短纤工厂减产加工费扩张，看多；苯乙烯受关税影响下游需求转弱，看空；尿素供需宽松，价格向下调整 [1] - 甲醇短期区间震荡，中长期或由强转弱；PE、PP因宏观风险和贸易战震荡偏弱；PVC基本面弱难以趋势上涨；烧碱节前需求一般，盘面震荡偏弱 [1] Others - 集法财线强预期弱现实，旺季合约可轻仓试多，关注6 - 8反套 [1]

对大趋势的判断远比天天做波段赚小钱要更重要。如果天天只盯着一些消息或数据来做短线，不但心力憔悴，效果还不佳，到时就会"只见树 木，不见森林。"要做好投资，就要把目光放的长远，研究大势。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20240424— 央妈，财爸，发哥，隔空传情（+央行：央行国债操作是双向的+资金面平衡宽松=大上)】 资金面平衡宽松，长债收益率大幅上行。 央行：为维护银行体系流动性合理充裕，开展了20亿元7天期逆回购操作，中标利率为1.8%。当日20亿元逆回购到期并将进行700亿元国库现金定存招 标，因此单日全口径净投放700亿元。 资金全天维持宽松态势，盘中无明显波澜。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2024. 4. 24) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | ...