十一黄金周过后，全球股市遭遇"黑色星期五"普遍下跌，黄金再度"独美"，伦敦金现货周五收报4017.85美元/盎司，上 涨1.05%。 国内休市期间，受避险等属性的影响，国际金价亦大幅度上涨。10月8日，伦敦金现货首次站上4000美元整数关口，收 报4040.42美元/盎司，比9月30日收盘价上涨4.7%。 分析人士认为，此轮金价上涨主要受全球货币体系重构、美联储降息预期、地缘政治风险及投资需求激增共同推动，标 志着黄金市场进入新一轮强势周期。 国信证券分析师绍兴宇表示："全球货币体系重构是支撑黄金上涨的长期逻辑，黄金近期的上涨源于市场对所有法定货 币信任度的削弱。" 天风证券分析师谭逸鸣表示，"政府关门"令美联储年内再降息两次的预期升温。首先，"政府关门"会对就业和经济造成 负面打击。历史数据显示，2018年12月开始的34天政府部分停摆，导致2019年一季度实际GDP年化增速下降0.4个百分 点；2013年的16天政府停摆，导致2013年四季度实际GDP年化增速下降0.25个百分点。 其次，他表示，如果关门持续过长，美国政府无法在10月美联储议息会议前发布9月非农就业数据和消费者物价报告， 会令美联储的判断 ...

刚刚，伊朗外长透露拒绝美方要求原因。 据央视新闻消息，当地时间10月11日，伊朗外长阿拉格齐在被问及与美国重启谈判及其条件时表示，伊 朗对美国的立场始终明确，"如果他们准备在平等的基础上，为实现共同利益、基于相互尊重进行谈 判，并且不把谈判与'命令'混为一谈，愿意开展公平、平衡的对话，我们也会准备好进行这样的谈 判"。 阿拉格齐重申，双方谈判议题仅限于核问题，这是伊朗一贯立场。他指出，由于在纽约联合国大会期间 发生的事件及其后续发展，伊朗目前"没有看到重新开启谈判的基础" 。阿拉格齐透露，今年纽约联合 国大会举行期间双方确实曾进行接触，伊朗曾表示愿就相关问题进行磋商。但美方立场是，如果伊朗交 出所有60%丰度的浓缩铀，他们只会将"快速恢复制裁"机制推迟六个月。阿拉格齐称，这是"过分、完 全不合理、绝对不可接受的立场"，伊朗已明确表达拒绝，因此这次接触未能取得成果。 阿拉格齐表示，伊朗曾告知斡旋方，"没有理性的人会接受这种要求"。并称如果有关国家愿意永久放 弃"快速恢复制裁"机制，让安理会第2231号决议在10月18日按期终止，并将伊朗议题从安理会议程中彻 底删除，那么相关请求才值得考虑。"但美国从未接受这一点 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in silver prices, reaching a record high of $51.22 per ounce, indicates a shift in the precious metals market, suggesting a transition of silver from an "industrial metal" to a "store of value" asset [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - On October 9, the spot silver price broke through $50 per ounce, marking a historical peak [1] - Year-to-date, the spot silver price has increased by over 70% [1] - The largest silver ETF, iShares, reported holdings of 15,452 tons as of October 9, an increase of over 1,000 tons since the beginning of the year, indicating strong long-term investment demand for silver [1] Group 2: Demand Drivers - The strength of silver is driven by both industrial demand and investment attributes, supported by the ongoing global energy transition [1] - Silver consumption is growing in sectors such as new energy, photovoltaics, and electric vehicles, alongside increasing demand from the semiconductor industry due to artificial intelligence [1] Group 3: Supply Constraints - Silver mining costs have significantly risen, exacerbating supply pressures and pushing prices higher [1] - The global silver supply has experienced a deficit for five consecutive years, leading to declining inventories and noticeable spot premiums [1] - The gold-silver price ratio is also a contributing factor to the rise in spot silver prices [1]

然而消息人士称，尽管俄罗斯企业试图在中国发行债券获取低成本融资，但由于中资机构担忧美国制裁风险，相关计划难以推进。这一局面凸 显出，尽管中俄关系紧密，但俄企在华融资仍面临多重障碍。 自俄乌战争爆发以来，俄企已被切断了进入西方资本市场的渠道。但中国银行家和投资者也不看好俄企在华发债的前景。报道引述知情人士 说，中国的监管机构和银行担忧次级制裁风险。 近年来，与中国关系密切的外国政府和企业正在加紧涌入以人民币计价的熊猫债券市场。 熊猫债是指境外机构在中国境内市场发行的债券。 据德意志银行预测，2025年全年熊猫债发行额可望达到2230亿元人民币左右。据悉，匈牙利在今年7月发行了3年期和5年期、总额为50亿元人 民币的熊猫债，接下来巴基斯坦也计划发行熊猫债。 此外据路透社报道，九月初俄罗斯总统普京访华之后，包括俄罗斯国家原子能公司和俄罗斯天然气工业石油公司等头部俄企，都在考虑发行以 人民币计价的"熊猫债"。 上述知情人士说，过去一年，俄罗斯原子能公司和俄罗斯铝业公司发行熊猫债的努力没有实质进展，"准备工作一直在进行，但就是无法推进 项目。" 中国一名证券交易所官员称，不了解俄企有任何具体的发债计划。几家境内债券投资 ...

石化周报 加沙停火，原油地缘溢价效应减弱 2025 年 10 月 11 日 ➢ 加沙停火，原油地缘溢价效应减弱。由于特朗普 9 月 29 日宣布以色列总理 已同意美方就结束加沙冲突提出的"20 点计划"，从而十一假期期间油价表现走 弱；10 月 10 日，以色列国防军发表声明，加沙停火第一阶段协议已于当地 10 日中午 12 时（北京时间 17 时）生效，中东局部停火导致原油所包含的地缘溢价 效应减弱。OPEC+方面，10 月 1 日第 62 次 JMMC 会议召开，伊朗、科威特、 阿联酋、哈萨克斯坦、阿曼、俄罗斯更新了 25 年 9 月至 26 年 6 月的补偿减产 计划，其中，25 年 9~12 月计划补偿减产 23.2、20.3、26.6、30.3 万桶/日，第 63 次 JMMC 会议将于 11 月 30 日举行；10 月 5 日，此前自愿减产的八个 OPEC+ 国家宣布将逐步取消 165 万桶/日的减产，11 月份将率先进行 13.7 万桶/日的增 产，且下一次八国会议将于 11 月 2 日举行。我们认为，目前的地缘形式下， OPEC+的补偿减产仍需持续跟踪，若补偿减产能够有效兑现，则油价仍具备较强 ...

格隆汇10月11日｜根据国新证券黄金行业点评，此轮金价上涨主要受美联储降息预期、地缘政治风险及 投资需求激增共同推动，标志着黄金市场进入新一轮强势周期。 投资建议方面，短期策略上，关注事 件催化，聚焦10 月美联储会议纪要及美国通胀数据（若CPI 超预期反弹可能引发波动）。 ...

更深层次来看，金价上 近期国际金价持续攀升，突破历史高位，这一现象折射出全球经济格局的深刻变化。从市场供需角度 看，全球央行增持黄金储备的趋势明显，2022年各国央行购金量创下55年新高，直接推高了黄金需求。 同时，地缘政治风险加剧、美元信用波动等因素，促使投资者将黄金作为避险资产的首选。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global gold market is experiencing unprecedented volatility, with gold futures prices recently surpassing $4000 per ounce, followed by a significant drop, raising concerns about potential overvaluation and future price corrections [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The expectation of a reversal in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with potential delays in interest rate cuts, is putting downward pressure on gold prices [3][4]. - Strong economic data in the U.S. has led to increased expectations for higher interest rates, which negatively impacts gold as a non-yielding asset [3][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Speculative Positions - There is a crowded speculative long position in gold, with a significant number of investors betting on rising prices, which could lead to a sharp sell-off if prices fail to maintain upward momentum [6][7]. - The recent strength of the U.S. dollar, supported by the Fed's hawkish stance, is further pressuring gold prices as it is priced in dollars [6][7]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors and Demand Trends - Geopolitical tensions, such as conflicts in the Middle East and the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war, have previously driven gold prices higher, but the market is now adjusting to these risks as they have not escalated into full-scale wars [8][9]. - Central bank gold purchases, particularly from emerging markets, have been a significant support for gold prices, but there are concerns about the sustainability of this trend [9][10]. Group 4: Financial Market Sentiment and Asset Allocation - A shift in investor sentiment towards riskier assets, such as equities, is leading to reduced demand for gold, which is traditionally viewed as a defensive investment [16][19]. - The rise of technology stocks and the overall bullish sentiment in the stock market are attracting capital away from gold [19]. Group 5: Price Volatility and Technical Indicators - The gold market is currently experiencing high volatility, with technical indicators suggesting a potential need for price corrections after reaching overbought levels [12][17]. - Key resistance levels have been tested multiple times without success, indicating a potential for further downward adjustments in gold prices [12][17]. Group 6: Short-term Outlook and Investment Strategies - In the short term, gold is likely to enter a period of wide-ranging adjustments, with potential price movements down to the $2200–$2350 per ounce range [21]. - For short-term traders, a "buy low, sell high" strategy is recommended, while long-term investors may find opportunities to accumulate positions during price corrections [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The precious metals market is expected to remain in a high - level and strong - side oscillation in the short term due to market uncertainties and supply - demand tensions, despite recent price corrections caused by factors such as the cease - fire in Gaza and the rise of the US dollar [1][2] - The copper market shows tight supply at the mine end and weakening terminal consumption. Copper prices may need to consolidate after reaching the pressure level, and a low - buying approach is recommended [5][7] - Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and its price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation until large - scale production cuts occur [14] - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to be strong along with aluminum prices, supported by cost factors [18][19] - Aluminum prices are likely to maintain an upward trend due to the influence of interest - rate cut expectations and the overall strength of the non - ferrous metal sector, despite short - term seasonal inventory accumulation [26] - Zinc prices may be supported by overseas inventory reduction but could face downward pressure if there is large - scale LME warehousing. Short - term prices may be strong, but selling on rallies is advisable [29][30] - Lead prices may rise in the short term due to inventory reduction but could fall back later as supply is expected to increase while consumption shows no significant improvement [35][36] - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate within a range determined by supply surplus and cost support, following the rhythm of macro - sentiment [38][40] - Stainless steel prices are likely to oscillate widely, with overseas policy relaxation potentially boosting exports and domestic demand remaining stable [43][45] - Industrial silicon prices may oscillate within a certain range. There may be a slight surplus in November, which could limit price increases [48][50] - Polysilicon prices may face downward pressure from supply - demand imbalances in October but could see price increases due to potential capacity integration. Low - buying after sufficient corrections is recommended [52] - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain an oscillating pattern as both upward and downward driving forces are limited [56][58] - Tin prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and the progress of mine resumption in Myanmar should be monitored [60][64] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - London gold closed down 1.6% at $3976.28 per ounce, London silver closed up 0.66% at $49.205 per ounce. Shanghai gold and silver futures also showed corresponding price changes [1] - The US dollar index rose 0.63% to 99.538, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was at 4.144%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fell 0.14% to 7.1309 [1] Important资讯 - The US government is expected to release the CPI report during the shutdown. Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. The first - stage Gaza cease - fire agreement has taken effect, and the Congo (Kinshasa) central bank plans to build gold reserves [1] Logic Analysis - The cease - fire in Gaza led to profit - taking in gold, and the rise of the US dollar pressured precious metals. However, market uncertainties and supply - demand tensions in silver support precious metals to oscillate strongly at high levels [2] Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, a low - buying approach is recommended. For arbitrage, stay on the sidelines. Buy deep - out - of - the - money call options on silver [3] Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper 2511 contract closed at 86,650 yuan per ton, up 0.86%. LME copper closed at $10,776.5 per ton, up 0.71%. LME and COMEX inventories increased [5] Important资讯 - Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. Zambia plans to increase copper production, and some mines have production adjustments [5][6] Logic Analysis - Mine supply is tight, and terminal consumption is weak. The market expects copper prices to need consolidation after reaching the pressure level [7] Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, buy on dips cautiously. Hold long - short arbitrage across markets and consider long - short arbitrage across periods after domestic inventory decline. Stay on the sidelines for options [7][8] Alumina Market Review - Alumina 2601 contract fell 8 yuan to 2,875 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed declines [10][12] Important资讯 - An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for alumina, and the winning price decreased. Alumina inventory increased, and there is a monthly supply surplus. Production costs and profits have changed [12][13] Logic Analysis - Alumina supply is increasing, resulting in an oversupply situation. Prices are expected to oscillate at low levels until large - scale production cuts [14] Trading Strategy - Alumina prices are expected to be weak. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [15] Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The night - session casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 65 yuan to 20,550 yuan per ton. Spot prices were stable [18] Important资讯 - The SHFE aluminum alloy warehouse receipts increased, and most aluminum die - casting enterprises had extended holidays [18] Logic Analysis - The high price of scrap aluminum and cost factors support the price of cast aluminum alloy [19] Trading Strategy - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to be strong. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [20] Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session Shanghai aluminum 2511 contract rose 95 yuan to 21,100 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions increased [22][25] Important资讯 - The US government is in a shutdown, and Fed officials have differences in interest - rate cut views. Production costs decreased, and inventory increased [25][26] Logic Analysis - Aluminum prices are rising due to interest - rate cut expectations and sector strength. Short - term inventory accumulation has limited impact on prices [26] Trading Strategy - Adopt a long - position approach for aluminum prices. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [27][28] Zinc Market Review - LME zinc rose 0.63% to $3,014 per ton, Shanghai zinc 2511 rose 0.61% to 22,335 yuan per ton. Spot market trading was mainly among traders [29] Important资讯 - Domestic zinc inventory increased, and a mine in Congo (Kinshasa) increased production [29] Logic Analysis - Overseas inventory reduction supports zinc prices, but potential LME warehousing could lead to price drops [30] Trading Strategy - Zinc prices may be strong in the short term, but sell on rallies. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money call options [31] Lead Market Review - LME lead rose 0.75% to $2,020.5 per ton, Shanghai lead 2511 rose 0.44% to 17,115 yuan per ton. Spot market trading was light [34] Important资讯 - Lead inventory decreased, and a lead - zinc mine's production resumption was postponed [35] Logic Analysis - The lead market has tight raw - material supply, potential production changes at smelters, and weak consumption [35][36] Trading Strategy - Lead prices may rise and then fall. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the money call options [36][37] Nickel Market Review - LME nickel rose to $15,485 per ton, and Shanghai nickel rose to 123,620 yuan per ton. Spot premiums showed some changes [38] Important资讯 - A nickel mine in Indonesia plans to start production, and Indonesia has introduced a new mining - license policy. There are export controls on lithium - battery - related products [38] Logic Analysis - Nickel prices are affected by factors such as inventory increase, export controls, and market sentiment, and are expected to oscillate within a range [38][40] Trading Strategy - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate widely. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [41] Stainless Steel Market Review - The stainless - steel main contract rose to 12,845 yuan per ton. Spot prices were in a certain range [43] Important资讯 - India relaxed import - certification requirements, a typhoon affected some processing enterprises, and Indonesia won an anti - dumping lawsuit [43] Logic Analysis - Overseas policy relaxation may boost exports, and domestic demand is stable. Prices are expected to oscillate widely [45] Trading Strategy - Stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate widely. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [46] Industrial Silicon Market Review - Industrial silicon futures fell 0.29% to 8,640 yuan per ton. Spot prices were stable [48] Important资讯 - The government issued a notice on price management. Some silicon plants had production adjustments [48] Logic Analysis - There may be a slight surplus in November, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [48][50] Trading Strategy - Trade within the range for single - side trading. Stay on the sidelines for options and arbitrage [50] Polysilicon Market Review - Polysilicon futures closed flat at 50,765 yuan per ton. Spot prices were stable [52] Important资讯 - The government issued a notice on price management. Polysilicon production and demand changed [52] Logic Analysis - Supply - demand imbalances in October may lead to price pressure, but capacity integration may push up prices. Buying at low levels after corrections is advisable [52] Trading Strategy - Buy after sufficient corrections for single - side trading. Hold reverse arbitrage for 2511 and 2512 contracts. Buy both out - of - the - money call and put options [54] Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Lithium carbonate 2511 contract rose to 73,340 yuan per ton. Spot prices were stable [56] Important资讯 - A company obtained mining rights, there were export controls, and some lithium - related projects had developments [56] Logic Analysis - Production increased slightly, inventory decreased, and prices are expected to oscillate [58] Trading Strategy - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate widely. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [58] Tin Market Review - Shanghai tin 2511 contract rose 0.82% to 287,400 yuan per ton. Spot prices increased, but market activity was low [60] Important资讯 - Fed - related news, and Indonesia adjusted its tin - trading system and carried out industry governance [60][62] Logic Analysis - The supply of tin mines is tight, and demand is weak. Pay attention to mine resumption and consumption recovery [63] Trading Strategy - Tin prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. Monitor the resumption of mines in Myanmar [64]

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年10月10日16时18分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属高位回调，沪金主力收跌1.25%，沪银主力收跌1.13%。①核心逻辑，短期避险方面，巴以冲突有所缓和，贸易战与美 国政府停摆避险仍存；美国经济滞涨风险增加，就业走弱通胀温和，联储降息预期开始兑现。②避险属性方面，以色列批准加沙停 火协议，停火将在24小时内生效。美国政府关门、法国总理辞职等事件，加剧市场不确定性。③货币属性方面，美联储威廉姆斯 支持今年继续降息，因就业市场或进一步放缓。美联储9月降息25个基点并暗示将进一步下调利率。9月ADP就业减少3.2万人，大 幅低于市场预期的新增5.1万人。美国PCE通胀数据符合预期，加强了美联储今年晚些时候可能继续降息的押注。目前市场预期美 联储10月降息25基点概率维持90%附近，且年内降息次数预期仍有2次左右。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏强；④商品属性方面， CRB商品指数反弹承压，人民币升值利空国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期金弱银强，中长期阶梯上行。 | 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 | | --- | | 表1 ...