请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 地缘风险已计价，关注后续中东地缘走势。地缘：南美地缘生变，委内出 | | 原油 | | 现权力真空，中东地缘升温，短期对油价起到支撑；核心驱动：淡季供给 | | ★ | 空头反弹 | 过剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油 | | | | 激增，美国原油和成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注 | | | | 变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及南美地缘进展。 | | | | 油价受地缘扰动，短线反弹，中长期承压。中长期锚定成本端原油，油价 | | LPG | | 短线反弹，中长期承压，液化气反弹空间受限；供需方面，炼厂开工回升， | | ★ | 空头反弹 | 商品量上升，PDH 开工率升至 75%，下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端利多， | | | | 港口库存环比下降。 | | | | 期现共振走强，基差修复至平水状态，地缘冲突扰动带动成本支撑走强。 | | L | 2025 年 | 1-11 月伊 ...

韩国央行行长李昌镛：周四的利率决议一致通过。需对汇市波 动保持谨慎。地缘政治风险和居民海外 投资是韩元走软背后的因素。五位成员表示，利率在短期内很可能保持不变。 ...

2 2017 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 贵金属数据日报 市 市 官 方 网 客 服 热 线 站 需 有 译 风 www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 慎 险 2）影响因素分析：美国官员稼美国正从中东主要基地撤出人员、伊朗地缘紧张局势继续加剧，与此同时丹麦军方开始向格陵兰岛增派力量，全球地缘政治风险持 续扩散，避险需求不断升温、推升贵金属价格延续强劲上涨态势。自银方面、受宏观利好和基本面共振能动，资金青睐进一步助推脱价塑释放、加速上涨，伦敦 ffilfifilian 现货白银突破2差元/盎司共口，沪银主力突破2000元/千克关口、续刷历史新高，且在国内现货维持升水，期货baok结构加深、上期所继续去库等背景下，国内白 级课称》银涨势更为凌厉，现货进口窗口打开、沪银较伦敦银溢价持续扩大。综上，展望后市，短期在宏观和基本面支撑的双重利好下，预计贵金属价格料维持偏强运行， 但美国11月零售销售数据远超预期，11月PPI全线高于预期，表明美国经济增长仍具任性、加上短期贵金属市场情绪过热，短线回调风险不容忽视，波动成仍较为剧 烈, 建议控制仓位。后续、需继续密切关注伊朗局势进展、美联 ...

中辉有色观点 | 1 11 | 10 | - | | --- | --- | --- | | - | 2 | | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 关税裁决悬而未决，美联储独立性被重创，中东、拉美等地缘问题升级中，地缘溢 | | | 长线持有 | 价交易继续，流动性风险偏好尚可。中长期来看，地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存 | | ★★ | | 在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | | | 短期彭博指数调仓结束、避险交易、交割逻辑、资源品紧张预期持续。长期降息、 | | 白银 ★★ | 长期持有 | 供需缺口连续 5 年，全球大财政均对白银长期有利，长期滚动做多逻辑不变。 | | | | 美国关税裁决一再拖延，美联储内部分歧加大，中东地缘风险激增，宏观多空交织， | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 美国持续虹吸全球铜资源，短期铜高位震荡，建议多单持有，移动止盈落袋，新入 | | ★ | | 场等待充分回调，中长期对铜依旧看好。 | | | | 短期锌供需双弱，宏观和市场情绪占据价格主导地位，伦锌拉涨带动沪锌冲锋 2 万 5 | | 锌 | ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周三夜盘瓶片主力价格下跌 6 元至 6138 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 6150 元/吨 （+50），华南瓶片价格 6220 元/吨（+70）。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 828 手至 6.46 万手，空头持仓增加 624 手至 6.69 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应和成本利润方面，本周国内聚酯瓶片产量为 33.47 万吨，环比-0.06 万吨。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | 震 荡 偏 | 国内聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 72.27%，环比-1.01；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5592 元， 环比-31 元/吨；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-166 元/吨，环比+15 元/吨。 2、2025 年 11 月中国聚酯瓶片出口 53.3 万吨，较上月增加 0.99 万吨。2025 年累计 出口量 586.5 万吨。 3、2025 年 12 月我国聚酯瓶片行业产量为 147.89 万吨，环比增加 3.48%。本月产能 利用率为 73.12%，环比提升 0.1 个百分点 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2026年01月15日 【原油】 EIA最新周度数据显示美国商业原油库存意外大增。昨日市场在担忧美国袭击伊朗情绪的笼罩下油价 延续反弹趋势，Brent一度涨至接近67美元/桶。然而14日下午特朗普表态将观望伊朗局势发展，缓 解市场对伊朗供应中断的担忧,油价回吐涨幅。从油价波动显著加剧表现来看除非冲突落地,否则 油价短期上涨空间暂预计有限。2026年第一季度全球原油供需结构显示库存压力显著,供应过剩依 然是限制油价上行空间的主要因素。 (责金属) 隔夜美国公布11月PP1录得3%为7月以来新高，零售销售月率录得0.6%略高于预期，美联储多位官员 讲话对短期内降息持否定态度。伊朗局势处于高度紧张状态，贵金属整体维持强势。今日关注美国1 月SPGI 制造业PMI初值和周度初请失业金人数。 【铜】 隔夜沪铜械仓震荡，美国高法仍为就对等关税作出裁决，市场关注地缘风险。LMEO-3月现货升水缩 至44美元，等待周内社库。关注10.5万一线沪铜仓量,观察资金动能。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝高位震荡。短期贵金属有色多头情绪仍强,沪铝连续三日在历史高点冲高回落寻求突破 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US economy remains in a stage of decent growth, controllable inflation, and lingering political risks. Retail sales in November increased by 0.6% month - on - month, and inflation shows an "external hot, internal stable" pattern. Metal prices are rising rapidly, while the US stock market turns defensive and the US dollar index slightly declines. Oil prices continue to rebound [2]. - Domestically, exports and imports in December 2025 both exceeded expectations, showing a recovery in foreign demand and domestic imports. The property - related tax - refund policy is extended, and regulations are strengthened in the new energy vehicle industry. The A - share market receives regulatory cooling signals after reaching a new high, and the short - term upward slope may be adjusted [3]. - Precious metals continue to be strong due to factors such as the US inflation data boosting expectations of Fed rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and the potential shortage of physical supply. The silver price is expected to remain strong in the short term [4][5]. - The copper price shows a strong and volatile trend. Strong economic fundamentals in China and the US provide demand support, and the supply of concentrates is growing slowly. It is expected to maintain a high - level and strong oscillation in the short term [6][7]. - The aluminum price fluctuates at a high level. Although the macro - environment is stable, high prices suppress downstream consumption, and the inventory is increasing. It is expected to continue the high - level oscillation [8][9]. - The zinc price fluctuates strongly. The high copper - zinc and zinc - aluminum price ratios support the zinc price, but the downstream consumption is weak. It is expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend with increased volatility [10]. - The lead price's rebound space is limited. Although the LME lead inventory is decreasing, the consumption pressure increases due to the anti - dumping tariff on lead - acid batteries, and the social inventory is rising. It is expected to fluctuate widely [11]. - The tin price hits a new high, but there is a risk of adjustment at the high level. Although the current supply disruption is limited, the supply of tin ore remains tight. However, the risk accumulates as the price rises continuously, and there may be a callback pressure [12][13]. - The steel price fluctuates. The fundamental driving force is limited, and it is expected to oscillate mainly. The impact of inventory accumulation on the steel price should be noted [14]. - The iron ore price is under pressure to oscillate. The supply is strong while the demand is weak, with high port inventories and general replenishment by steel mills [15]. - The coking coal and coke prices oscillate. The cost of coking enterprises is rising, the supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is weak. It is expected to continue the oscillating pattern [16][17]. - The soybean and rapeseed meal prices oscillate. China's soybean procurement is approaching the target, and the Brazilian harvest will increase supply. The short - term trend depends on the pre - holiday stocking demand [18]. - The palm oil price oscillates. Indonesia cancels the B50 policy, which eases the supply - tightness expectation, but the improving export demand provides support [19][20]. 3. Summary of Each Section Macro - Overseas: The US is in a stage of decent growth, controllable inflation, and lingering political risks. In November, retail sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month, driven by automobile and holiday - related consumption. PPI rose to 3% year - on - year, mainly due to energy prices, while core PPI was flat month - on - month. Metal prices rose rapidly, the US stock market turned defensive, the US dollar index declined slightly, and oil prices rebounded [2]. - Domestic: In December 2025, exports increased by 6.6% and imports by 5.7% year - on - year, both exceeding expectations. The property - related tax - refund policy is extended to 2027, and regulations are strengthened in the new energy vehicle industry. The A - share market received regulatory cooling signals after reaching a new high, and the short - term upward slope may be adjusted [3]. Precious Metals - The price of precious metals continued to be strong on Wednesday, with gold and silver hitting new highs for three consecutive days. The US CPI data in December boosted expectations of Fed rate cuts, and geopolitical tensions and potential supply shortages pushed up the prices. The silver price is expected to remain strong in the short term due to factors such as forced short - covering [4][5]. Copper - On Wednesday, the Shanghai copper futures fluctuated at a high level, and the LME copper price stabilized above $13,000. The spot market trading improved, and downstream enterprises replenished stocks on a small scale. The US economic activity is expanding moderately, and the strong economic fundamentals in China and the US provide demand support. The supply of concentrates is growing slowly. It is expected to maintain a high - level and strong oscillation in the short term [6][7]. Aluminum - On Wednesday, the Shanghai aluminum futures closed at 24,665 yuan/ton, down 0.32%, and the LME aluminum price closed at $3,189.5/ton, down 0.2%. The spot price increased, and the inventory rose. The macro - environment is stable, but high prices suppress downstream consumption. It is expected to continue the high - level oscillation [8][9]. Zinc - On Wednesday, the Shanghai zinc futures fluctuated within a narrow range during the day and strongly at night, and the LME zinc price rose. The downstream procurement enthusiasm is low, and the spot premium continues to decline. The high copper - zinc and zinc - aluminum price ratios support the zinc price, but the downstream consumption is weak. It is expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend with increased volatility [10]. Lead - On Wednesday, the Shanghai lead futures fluctuated within a narrow range during the day and rose at night, and the LME lead price rose. The consumption pressure increases due to the anti - dumping tariff on lead - acid batteries, and the social inventory is rising. Although the LME lead inventory is decreasing, the lead price's rebound space is limited. It is expected to fluctuate widely [11]. Tin - On Wednesday, the Shanghai tin futures hit the daily limit for the second time this week and continued to be strong at night, breaking through 440,000 yuan/ton. The LME tin price rose by 9.88%. Although the current supply disruption is limited, the supply of tin ore remains tight. However, the risk accumulates as the price rises continuously, and there may be a callback pressure [12][13]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Wednesday, the steel futures fluctuated. The spot market trading volume was 88,000 tons. The cost of electric arc furnace steel mills increased slightly, and the profit was in a loss state. The fundamental driving force is limited, and it is expected to oscillate mainly. The impact of inventory accumulation on the steel price should be noted [14]. Iron Ore - On Wednesday, the iron ore futures fluctuated and slightly adjusted. The spot market trading volume was 1.23 million tons. The cost of steel mills decreased slightly, and the loss was gradually reduced. The supply is strong while the demand is weak, with high port inventories and general replenishment by steel mills. It is expected to be under pressure to oscillate [15]. Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - On Wednesday, the coking coal and coke futures oscillated. The price of coking coal increased, and the price of coke decreased. The production capacity utilization rate of coal washing plants increased, and the inventory of refined coal rose. The cost of coking enterprises is rising, the supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is weak. It is expected to continue the oscillating pattern [16][17]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Wednesday, the soybean meal 05 contract fell 0.9%, and the rapeseed meal 05 contract fell 1.46%. A US exporter reported selling 334,000 tons of soybeans to China. The Brazilian harvest is underway, and the supply will increase. The short - term trend depends on the pre - holiday stocking demand [18]. Palm Oil - On Wednesday, the palm oil 05 contract fell 0.55%. Indonesia cancels the B50 policy and will maintain the B40 policy, which eases the supply - tightness expectation. However, the improving export demand provides support. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [19][20]

林嘉旎 Z0020770 价格及基差 | | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 単位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM 电池级碳酸锂均价 | 163000 | 159500 | 3500.0 | 2.19% | 元/吨 | | SMM 工业级碳酸锂均价 | 159500 | 156000 | 3500.0 | 2.24% | 元/吨 | | SMM电池级氢氧化锂均价 | 154000 | 150500 | 3500.0 | 2.33% | 元/吨 | | SMM工业级氢氧化锂均从 | 147400 | 143900 | 3500.0 | 2.43% | 元/吨 | | 中日韩CIF电池级碳酸锂 | 16.50 | 16.10 | 0.40 | 2.48% | 美元/千克 | | 中日韩CIF电池级氢氧化锂 | 16.00 | 15.60 | 0.40 | 2.56% | 美元/千克 | | SMM电碳-工碳价差 | 3500 | 3500 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 基差(SMM电碳基准) | 1060 | -7480 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 1 月 15 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2604 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 长线看强 升 | 宏观氛围冷却，短期避险需求上 | | 铜 | 2603 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏弱 | 长线看强 | 宏观氛围冷却，短期多头了结意 上升 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：强势 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 天然橡胶 周三，国产全乳胶15850元/吨，环比上日上涨150元/吨；泰国20号混合胶15150元/吨，环比上日上涨100元/吨。 原料端：昨日泰国胶水报收58.0泰铢/公斤，环比上日上涨0.5泰铢/公斤，泰国杯胶价格报收52.8泰铢/公斤，环比上日上涨0.3泰铢/公斤；云南停割；海南停 割。 截至2026年1月11日，中国天然橡胶社会库存125.6万吨，环比增加2.4万吨，增幅1.9%。中国深色胶社会总库存为83.5万吨，增2.5%。其中青岛现货库存增 3.6%；云南增1%；越南10#增6%；NR库存小计降3%。中国浅色胶社会总库存为42.1万吨，环比增0.8%。其中老全乳胶环比降1.7%，3L环比增10%，RU库 存小计增2.8%。 观点：随着北半球冬季来临，全球即将进入低产季，也代表着单边价格的定价框架将从供需平衡的动态定价转换至存量库存的静态定价，在近期商品市场预 期全面走强的背景下，预计短期内RU&NR&Sicom仍将高位震荡。向后看，尽管认为2026全球轮胎等橡胶制品的需求将迎来温和增长，但是需求的增长是需 要时间的，以及全球贸易壁 ...