Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Today, Treasury bond futures continued to fluctuate within a narrow range. Currently, the trend of Treasury bond futures is not strong, and the upward and downward momentum is limited. Since April, as the Treasury bond yield to maturity has rebounded, the implied interest rate cut expectation relative to the policy rate is now close to zero. This is mainly because external risk factors have entered a suspension period, reducing the demand for safe - havens, and the effectiveness of internal policies requires more macro - economic indicators for verification. The possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low. However, due to the anchoring effect of the policy rate, the upward momentum of market interest rates is also insufficient. In the second quarter, government bond issuance has accelerated to hedge against external disturbances and support economic demand. Especially since May, the supply of 30 - year ultra - long - term special Treasury bonds has significantly increased, which may put some pressure on the price of 30 - year Treasury bond futures in the short term. Overall, in the short term, the upward and downward space of Treasury bond futures is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News and Related Charts - On May 22, 2025, the People's Bank of China conducted 154.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tendered method. The operating rate was 1.4%, unchanged from before [3].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 5 月 21 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 区间震荡 | 短期继续降息可能性较低 | 观点参考 观点参考 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均高开低走，全天震荡整理。消息面，LPR 报价调降 10BP，符合市场预期， 因为 ...

中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布， 2025年5月20日贷款市场报价利率 （LPR）为：1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%，均较上期下行10个基点。 人民银行行长潘功胜5月7日在国新办新闻发布会上宣布，下调政策利率0.1个百分点，预计将 带动贷款市场报价利率（LPR）同步下行约0.1个百分点。 5月8日，公开市场7天期逆回购操作利率从1.5%调降至1.4%，专家认为，此次LPR跟随下行 符合市场预期。 当前，社会融资成本处于历史低位。人民银行数据显示，4月份企业新发放贷款加权平均利率 约为3.2%，比上月低约4个基点，比上年同期低约50个基点；个人住房新发放贷款加权平均 利率约为3.1%，比上年同期低约55个基点。 专家认为，LPR下行将有效降低实体经济综合融资成本和居民购房成本。若按个人住房新发放 贷款加权平均利率约3.1%测算，以金额100万元、贷款期限30年、等额本息方式还款为例， 此次LPR下行将减少购房人总还款额约1.9万元。 4月份国民经济顶住压力稳定增长 芯片重磅！雷军官宣！ 今日，中国建设银行、招商银行等银行下调人民币存款利率，一年期定期存款利率为0.95%。 业内人 ...

瑞士央行行长施莱格尔：瑞士央行必须在不确定时期确保价格稳定。政策利率是我们的主要工具，但在 必要时我们也可以干预外汇市场。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term view of treasury bond futures is to fluctuate within a range. After the central bank's interest rate cut and reserve requirement ratio cut, it is necessary to wait for data to verify the effect, and the possibility of further interest rate cuts in the short term is low. The upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient, but due to the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, the upward space of treasury bond yields is limited, so is the downward space of treasury bond futures. Overall, the upward and downward spaces of treasury bond futures are limited in the short term, mainly in a consolidation phase. [4] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2506 variety, the short - term view is "fluctuation", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", the intraday view is "fluctuation with a weak bias", and the reference view is "range - bound fluctuation". The core logic is that after the interest rate cut expectation is fulfilled, it is mainly in a short - term consolidation phase. [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is "fluctuation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", and the reference view is "range - bound fluctuation". The core logic is that after the central bank's interest rate cut and reserve requirement ratio cut, it is necessary to wait for data to verify the effect, and the possibility of further interest rate cuts in the short term is low, so the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient. However, due to the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, the upward space of treasury bond yields is limited, and the downward space of treasury bond futures is also limited. In the short term, the upward and downward spaces of treasury bond futures are limited, mainly in a consolidation phase. Follow - up attention should be paid to external factors such as tariffs and the Fed, as well as domestic macro - economic indicators. [4]

美联储理事Cook：预计特朗普政府的贸易政策和相关的不确定性将在短期内拖累生产率的增长，这可 能促使美联储在更长时间内维持政策利率不变。 由于生产率下降，潜在经济增速的下滑将带来更大的通胀压力。 在其他条件相同的情况下，较低的生产率可能会促使我支持在更长时间内将利率保持在较高水平。 由于企业不知道关税的最终水平或持续时间，贸易政策的不确定性可能会减少商业投资，从而影响生产 率。 如果保护主义贸易政策支持效率较低的公司，或者如果这些变化导致供应链中断，生产率也可能受到影 响。 人工智能可以在未来几年提高美国的生产率，潜在地抵消贸易政策的负面影响。 ...

美联储主席潜在候选人：美联储归咎外部因素致通胀担忧实为自损信誉 金十数据5月10日讯，被认为是明年美联储主席潜在候选人的凯文·沃什表示，美联储对"关税加征可能 阻碍通胀管控"的担忧属于自损信誉。沃什称："当美联储断言通胀会因价格水平的外部变化而受到影 响，那么他们在某种程度上就是在承认一些有损自身利益的事情。他们是在承认自身信誉已经受 损。"沃什另指出，庞大且经常不断扩大的美联储资产负债表可能会与设定短期借贷利率的主要政策杠 杆相互矛盾，但"如果印钞机能够安静下来，我们就可以降低政策利率"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Former Federal Reserve Governor Walsh suggests that if the Federal Reserve reduces its balance sheet, the policy interest rates could potentially be lower [1] Group 1 - The reduction of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet may lead to a decrease in policy interest rates [1]

挪威央行：通胀仍高于目标。如果提前降低政策利率，物价可能会继续快速上涨。 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 158.6 billion yuan on May 8, with the operation rate adjusted from 1.50% to 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 158.6 billion yuan as there were no reverse repos maturing that day [1] - PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng indicated that the market-driven interest rate transmission is expected to lead to a 0.1 percentage point decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) starting from May 8, which will also guide commercial banks to lower deposit rates accordingly [1] - Analysts believe that the reduction in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate aims to lower the LPR, thereby reducing financing costs for the real economy and enhancing financial support for economic growth [2] Group 2 - The LPR has remained unchanged for six consecutive months as of April 21, indicating a period of stability in lending rates prior to the recent adjustments [2]