Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Korea, Lee Chang-yong, indicated that four members of the monetary policy committee may consider interest rate cuts within the next three months, while two members expect the policy rate to remain unchanged during the same period [1] Group 1 - The possibility of interest rate cuts is being discussed among four members of the monetary policy committee [1] - Two members of the committee anticipate that the policy rate will stay the same over the next three months [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to maintain the policy interest rate at 3.85%, indicating a wait-and-see approach while monitoring inflation trends [1][2]. Group 1: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Inflation in Australia has significantly decreased since its peak in 2022, with the current forecast suggesting a potential decline from 2.9% to a range of 2%-3% [2]. - The inflation rate in Australia for May was reported at 2.1%, marking the lowest level since October 2024 [2]. - The RBA noted that while some sectors report weak demand, private domestic demand is gradually recovering, and real household income has improved [4]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - The decision to hold rates steady surprised financial markets, as economists had anticipated a 25 basis point cut to 3.6% [5]. - Following the RBA's announcement, the Australian dollar rose by 0.79%, and the yield on the 3-year government bonds increased by 5 basis points to 3.42% [5]. - The S&P ASX200 index fell by 0.24% after the RBA's decision [5]. Group 3: Future Expectations - The RBA emphasized the importance of maintaining price stability and full employment, indicating that it will closely monitor economic data and risks to guide future decisions [4]. - Market expectations suggest that unless the second-quarter inflation data significantly exceeds forecasts, the RBA may still consider rate cuts in its next meeting in August [5].

意外！ 7月8日，澳大利亚央行宣布维持3.85%政策利率不变，并暗示将采取观望政策。该行强调正在等待更多信息，"以确认通 胀率仍有望在可持续的基础上达到2.5%"。 为何按兵不动？ 澳大利亚央行在声明中表示，通货膨胀自2022年见顶以来已大幅下降，高利率让总需求和总供给更接近平衡。目前预测 的潜在通胀将从2.9%下降到2%—3%范围。数据显示，澳大利亚5月份的通胀率为2.1%，是2024年10月以来的最低水 平。 澳大利亚央行认为，世界经济的不确定性仍然很高。虽然美国政府最终实施的关税以及其他国家的反应仍然未知，但金融 市场价格已经按照预期反弹。目前来看，最极端的结果有可能被避免，但全球贸易的不确定性预计将对全球经济活动产生 不利影响。 除此之外，虽然一些行业的企业继续报告说需求疲软使其难以通过成本增加到最终价格，但澳大利亚国内的私人需求正在 逐渐恢复，实际家庭收入有所回升，一些财务压力指标也有所缓解。此外，各种指标表明劳动力市场状况仍然紧张。 澳大利亚央行强调，保持价格稳定和充分就业是当务之急，未来将密切关注各项经济数据并不断评估风险，以指导其决 策。将密切关注全球经济和金融市场的发展趋势，包括国内需求，以 ...

特朗普贸易顾问纳瓦罗：美联储主席鲍威尔维持政策利率不变的做法正在造成严重伤害。 ...

美国联邦住房金融局（FHFA）局长Bill Pulte：美联储主席鲍威尔维持政策利率在高水平。 ...

鲍威尔：当前的政策利率略微具有限制性。 ...

瑞典央行副行长扬松：我们认为在一段时间内需要维持低于长期预期水平的政策利率。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current policy interest rate is positioned in the middle of the neutral range [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current policy interest rate set by the Bank of Korea is positioned in the middle of the neutral range [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Korea's vice governor indicated that the existing policy rate reflects a balanced approach to economic conditions [1]

高盛：政治不确定性可能促使泰国央行按兵不动 金十数据6月24日讯，高盛在一份报告中说，泰国央行周三可能会维持政策利率不变。经济学家Hui Shan和分析师Chelsea Song预计，央行将采取"观望"的态度，同时保留其有限的财政空间。他们指出， 国内政治不确定性上升，美国可能在未来几周内单方面宣布关税。根据美国暂时暂停的互惠关税，泰国 将面临36%的关税。高盛仍预计，在今年剩余时间里，泰国央行将再次降息50个基点。 ...