1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - The steel market shows signs of stabilizing. The recent decline in steel prices was mainly affected by the drop in coking coal prices. In the off - season, the supply and demand of steel are basically balanced, with a small increase in inventory. Steel prices rose in July, and inventory shifted from steel mills to traders. Steel mills have over - sold recently, and forward orders have been received for 20 - 30 days later. In the short term, steel inventory pressure is low, and as demand transitions from the off - season to the peak season, steel prices are expected to be supported. The main risk is the interference from the expected supply of coking coal. It is recommended to take a long - biased approach on price pullbacks and lightly test long positions at the current level [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore 09 contract showed a volatile upward trend. Globally, the iron ore shipping volume decreased month - on - month, while the arrival volume at 45 ports increased. Based on recent shipping data, the average future arrival volume is expected to decline. On the demand side, steel mills' profit margins are at a relatively high level, with a slight increase in maintenance volume and a slight decline in molten iron production, which remains at around 240,000 tons per day. Currently, steel exports remain strong, and the short - term resilience of molten iron is maintained. Terminal demand shows a strong performance during the off - season but weakens month - on - month. In terms of inventory, port inventory decreased slightly, the shipping volume decreased month - on - month, and steel mills' equity ore inventory increased month - on - month. In the future, molten iron production in August will remain high, with an average expected to be around 236,000 tons per day. The improvement in steel mills' profits will support raw materials, and there is a seesaw effect between coking coal and iron ore. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to introduce a stable growth plan for ten key industries, and there are expectations of production restrictions for Hebei steel mills before the September 3rd parade, which may lead to an increase in steel prices and iron ore prices will follow. It is recommended to go long on dips for single - side trading and long iron ore and short steel for arbitrage [4]. Coke - The coking coal futures rebounded after hitting the bottom, with significant price fluctuations recently. The fifth round of coke price increase was officially implemented, and port trade quotes remained stable. On the supply side, coal mine复产 is below expectations, and although coking production restrictions have been lifted, production is difficult to increase due to some enterprises' losses. On the demand side, blast furnace molten iron production decreased slightly from a high level, and downstream demand provides support. It is expected that molten iron production will continue to decline slightly in August. In terms of inventory, coking plants' inventory continued to decrease, port inventory increased slightly, and steel mills' inventory decreased. The overall inventory is at a medium level. As steel mills increase inventory replenishment at low prices, it is beneficial for future coke price increases. There is room for hedging due to the premium of coke futures over the spot. In August, there are positive drivers from production restrictions in Shanxi and Hebei for coking and steel industries. There are expectations of a sixth - round price increase in the short term. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 for speculation and conduct a 9 - 1 reverse spread for arbitrage, while being cautious of increased market volatility [5]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures rebounded after hitting the bottom, with significant price fluctuations. The spot auction prices were stable with a slight upward trend, Mongolian coal quotes stabilized, and large - mine long - term contract prices increased. On the supply side, coal mine operations decreased month - on - month. Due to good sales, coal mines mainly held firm on prices, and the market remained in short supply. In terms of imported coal, Mongolian coal prices stabilized this week after following the futures decline last week, and downstream users continued to replenish inventory. On the demand side, coking operations remained stable, and downstream blast furnace molten iron production decreased slightly from a high level, with continuous downstream inventory replenishment demand. In August, molten iron production is expected to remain at around 236,000 tons per day. In terms of inventory, coal mines continued to rapidly reduce inventory, ports and borders also saw inventory reduction, and downstream actively replenished inventory, with the overall inventory at a medium level. Although the spot fundamentals are under pressure due to the futures market, there are still expectations of coal mine production restrictions in August. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 for speculation and conduct a 9 - 1 reverse spread for arbitrage, while being cautious of increased market volatility [5]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - For rebar, spot prices in East China, North China decreased by 20 yuan/ton, while the price in South China remained unchanged. Futures contract prices generally increased slightly. For hot - rolled coils, spot prices in East China increased by 20 yuan/ton, North China decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and South China remained unchanged. Futures contract prices also increased [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the slab price remained unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar remained unchanged, while the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased to varying degrees [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron production increased by 2.6 to 242.6 tons, a 1.1% increase. The production of five major steel products increased slightly by 0.5 to 867.4 tons, a 0.1% increase. Rebar production decreased by 0.9 to 211.1 tons, a 0.4% decrease, with electric - arc furnace production increasing by 2.6 to 26.6 tons (a 10.9% increase) and converter production decreasing by 3.5 to 184.5 tons (a 1.9% decrease). Hot - rolled coil production increased by 5.3 to 322.8 tons, a 1.7% increase [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 15.4 to 1351.9 tons, a 1.2% increase. Rebar inventory increased by 7.6 to 546.3 tons, a 1.4% increase. Hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 2.8 to 348.0 tons, an 0.8% increase [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 2.3 to 11.0 tons, a 27.0% increase. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 16.1 to 852.0 tons, a 1.9% decrease. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 13.2 to 203.4 tons, a 6.1% decrease. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 4.8 to 320.0 tons, a 1.5% increase [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased, with the 09 - contract basis of some powders decreasing. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 1.5 to - 48.0, a 3.0% increase, the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 1.5 to 24.5, a 5.8% decrease, and the 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indices - Spot prices at Rizhao Port for various iron ore powders increased slightly, and the prices of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe also increased slightly [4]. Supply - The 45 - port weekly arrival volume increased by 267.3 to 2507.8 tons, an 11.9% increase. The global weekly shipping volume decreased by 139.1 to 3061.8 tons, a 4.3% decrease. The national monthly import volume increased by 782.0 to 10594.8 tons, an 8.0% increase [4]. Demand - The weekly average daily molten iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.5 to 240.7 tons, a 0.6% decrease. The weekly average daily shipping volume at 45 ports decreased by 12.4 to 302.7 tons, a 3.9% decrease. The national monthly pig iron production decreased by 220.9 to 7190.5 tons, a 3.0% decrease, and the national monthly crude steel production decreased by 336.1 to 8318.4 tons, a 3.9% decrease [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 28.3 to 13657.9 tons, a 0.2% decrease. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 126.9 to 9012.1 tons, a 1.4% increase. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills remained unchanged at 21.0 days [4]. Coke Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke increased. Coke futures contract prices also increased, and the basis decreased. The coking profit decreased [5]. Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.2 to 64.8 tons, a 0.3% increase, while the daily average production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2 to 47.0 tons, a 0.4% decrease [5]. Demand - The weekly molten iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.5 to 240.7 tons, a 0.64% decrease [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 2.8 to 915.4 tons, a 0.3% decrease. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 6.5 to 73.6 tons, an 8.14% decrease, and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 13.3 to 626.7 tons, a 2.14% decrease. The port inventory increased by 17.0 to 215.1 tons, an 8.6% increase [5]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap increased by 0.8 to - 4.8 tons, a 15.84% increase [5]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Mongolian coking coal warehouse receipts remained unchanged. Coking coal futures contract prices increased, and the basis changed. The coal mine profit increased [5]. Coal Prices - The Australian Peak Downs FOB price remained unchanged, the Jingtang Port Australian main coking coal ex - warehouse price remained unchanged, and the Guangzhou Port Australian thermal coal ex - warehouse price decreased by 6.0 to 721 yuan/ton, a 0.8% decrease [5]. Supply - The weekly raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines increased by 6.4 to 868.7 tons, a 0.7% increase, and the clean coal production increased by 3.1 to 444.1 tons, a 0.7% increase [5]. Demand - The weekly coking production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.2 to 64.8 tons, a 0.3% increase, and the weekly coking production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2 to 47.0 tons, a 0.4% decrease [5]. Inventory - The Fenwei coal mine clean coal inventory decreased by 13.9 to 118.8 tons, a 10.5% decrease. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 7.4 to 992.7 tons, a 0.74% increase. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 4.3 to 803.8 tons, a 0.5% increase. The port inventory decreased by 10.2 to 282.1 tons, a 3.5% decrease [5].

1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Polyester Industry Chain**: PX supply is expected to increase in August due to new device production and restart of some PX maintenance devices. The supply - demand situation is expected to weaken, and PX is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. PTA supply - demand is expected to improve, but the medium - term outlook is weak. Ethylene glycol supply is turning loose, with a small inventory build - up expected. Short - fiber, bottle - chip, and other products also face different supply - demand situations and price trends [2]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry**: The supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to improve in the third quarter, but the overall supply is sufficient, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The supply - demand of styrene is expected to be weak, with high port inventory, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - **Urea Industry**: The main driving force for the rebound of the urea market is the surge in overseas export demand and the expected increase in domestic industrial demand. The secondary driving force is the possible marginal tightening of supply due to local maintenance. The short - term market is still in the shock range, and attention should be paid to multiple factors such as port collection volume and overseas prices [12]. - **Methanol Industry**: The domestic methanol production is at a high level, the port inventory is slightly increasing, the basis is weakening, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to buy at low prices for the 01 contract [17]. - **Chlor - Alkali Industry**: The caustic soda market is in the off - season, with an expected increase in supply, and the overall outlook is neutral to weak. The PVC market is under pressure, with increasing inventory and weak demand, and the price is expected to continue to decline [27]. - **Crude Oil Industry**: The overnight oil price declined due to OPEC+ production increase, which is expected to increase global supply and suppress oil prices in the medium - long term. If there is no greater geopolitical shock, the supply - demand logic will continue to dominate the oil price trend [56]. - **Polyolefin Industry**: In August, the inventory pressure of PP and PE increases, and the demand is at a low level. However, there are potential restocking conditions in the seasonal peak season, and the overall valuation is moderately high with few fundamental contradictions [53]. 3. Summary by Directory Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread**: On August 5, most polyester product prices and spreads declined. For example, POY150/48 price dropped by 20 yuan/ton, and its cash flow decreased by 74.7% [2]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: PX supply is expected to increase, and the supply - demand is expected to weaken. PTA supply - demand is expected to improve in August, but the medium - term outlook is weak. Ethylene glycol supply is turning loose [2]. - **Strategy**: For PX, close short positions for PX09 and pay attention to the support around 6650. For PTA, close short positions for TA and conduct TA9 - 1 rolling reverse arbitrage [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Price and Spread**: On August 5, most prices and spreads of pure benzene and styrene declined. For example, the pure benzene - styrene spot price dropped by 30 yuan/ton, and the EB cash flow decreased significantly [7]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to improve in the third quarter, but the overall supply is sufficient. The supply - demand of styrene is expected to be weak, with high port inventory [7]. - **Strategy**: For styrene, close short positions for EB09 [7]. Urea Industry - **Price and Spread**: On August 5, the urea futures price and related spreads showed certain changes, and the spot price also had different degrees of increase or decrease in different regions [12]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The main driving force for the rebound is the increase in demand, and the secondary driving force is the possible marginal tightening of supply. The short - term market is still in the shock range [12]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to multiple factors such as port collection volume and overseas prices [12]. Methanol Industry - **Price and Spread**: On August 5, the methanol futures price and related spreads changed, and the spot price also had different trends in different regions [17]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The domestic production is at a high level, the port inventory is slightly increasing, and the downstream demand is weak [17]. - **Strategy**: Buy at low prices for the 01 contract [17]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Price and Spread**: On August 5, the prices of caustic soda and PVC products changed. For example, the price of Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda decreased by 60 yuan/ton, and the price of East China calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 30 yuan/ton [22]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The caustic soda market is in the off - season, with an expected increase in supply. The PVC market is under pressure, with increasing inventory and weak demand [27]. - **Strategy**: For caustic soda, hold short positions at high levels. For PVC, expect the price to continue to decline [27]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price and Spread**: On August 6, the prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil changed, and the spreads between different varieties and contracts also changed [56]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: OPEC+ production increase is expected to increase global supply and suppress oil prices in the medium - long term [56]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a band - trading strategy, with support levels for WTI at [63, 64], Brent at [66, 67], and SC at [495, 505]. Capture volatility contraction opportunities in the options market [56]. Polyolefin Industry - **Price and Spread**: On August 5, the prices of polyolefin futures and spot products increased to varying degrees, and the spreads between different contracts also changed [53]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In August, the inventory pressure of PP and PE increases, and the demand is at a low level, but there are potential restocking conditions in the seasonal peak season [53]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions at 7200 - 7300 for the previous single - side short positions, and continue to hold the LP01 position [53].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 6 日 鸡蛋：现货看涨预期落空 | | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 （%） | 成交变动 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 鸡蛋2509 | 3,330 | -1.89 | -55,278 | -4,144 | | | 鸡蛋2601 | 3,630 | 0.30 | -4,556 | 1,152 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | 价 差 | 鸡蛋9-10价差 | | 78 | | 117 | | | 鸡蛋9-1价差 | | -300 | | -260 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | 辽宁现货价格 | | 2.90 | | 2.90 | | | 河北现货价格 | | 2.73 | | 2.84 | | 产业链数据 | 山西现货价格 | | 2.90 | | 2.90 | | | 湖北现货价格 | | 3.18 | | 3.33 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | 玉米现货价格 | | 2,329 | | 2,329 | | | 豆粕现 ...

Group 1: Report Information - The report is a PTA daily report dated August 6, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Research Team - The energy and chemical research team includes researchers for different products such as Li Jie for crude oil and fuel, Ren Junchi for PTA and MEG, etc [4] Group 3: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - On August 5, the closing price of the PTA main futures contract TA2509 was 4,682 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton or 0.72%. The settlement price was 4,678 yuan/ton, and the daily position decreased by 12,105 lots. Due to weak cost support, sufficient PTA supply, and low downstream factory procurement intentions for spot goods, PTA prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [6] Group 4: Industry News - OPEC and its eight allied countries agreed to further increase production significantly in September. International oil prices fell for the third consecutive day. On August 4, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 was $66.29 per barrel, down $1.04 or 1.54%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 was $68.76 per barrel, down $0.91 or 1.31% [7] - The PX price in the Chinese market was estimated at $838 - 840 per ton, stable compared to the previous trading day. The PX price in the South Korean market was estimated at $818 - 820 per ton, also stable. The cost support for PX has strengthened slightly, and its supply - demand structure is relatively stable [7] - The PTA price in the East China market was 4,664 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The average daily negotiation basis was at a discount of 14 yuan/ton to the futures 2509 contract, down 2 yuan/ton [7] Group 5: Data Overview - The report provides various data charts including those related to international crude oil futures prices, upstream raw material spot prices, PX prices, MEG prices, PTA prices, PTA processing margins, etc [11][13][17]

Core Viewpoint - The main focus of the news is the significant increase in the futures price of coke, with the leading contract experiencing a daily rise of 5% on August 5th [1] Group 1 - The futures market for coke has shown a notable upward trend, indicating strong demand or potential supply constraints [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The four major stock index futures contracts all rose on August 4, 2025. The overall trend of stock index futures is in a volatile pattern, and investors are advised to be cautious about chasing up [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **Closing Price and Fluctuation**: The closing prices of the underlying indexes such as CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all increased on August 4, with increases of 0.39%, 0.55%, 0.78%, and 1.04% respectively. The corresponding futures contracts also rose, with IF rising 0.52%, IH rising 0.54%, IC rising 0.92%, and IM rising 1.31% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The total trading volume of stock index futures declined, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. The total trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased by 22,338 lots, 12,314 lots, 11,855 lots, and 23,743 lots respectively. The total open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased by 7,234 lots, 4,835 lots, 3,294 lots, and 1,172 lots respectively [2] - **Basis**: The basis of each futures contract varies, with some being positive and some negative, reflecting different market expectations [1] 3.2. Top 20 Member Position Changes - For most futures contracts, both long and short positions of the top 20 members showed certain changes. For example, in the IF2508 contract, the long - position increase was - 3303, and the net long - position change was - 6233; the short - position increase was - 2978, and the net short - position change was - 5185 [5] 3.3. Trend Intensity and Important Drivers - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and the trend intensity of IC and IM is also 1, indicating a neutral trend [6] - **Important Drivers**: The EU will suspend two trade counter - measures against the US for 6 months. The A - share market showed an upward trend on August 4, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.66%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.46%, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.5%. The market volume decreased slightly compared to the previous day [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of industrial silicon and polysilicon is complex. For industrial silicon, there is an issue of supply exceeding demand, with the supply side having increased production last week, while demand has been continuously sluggish. For polysilicon, the supply side is also relatively strong, and the demand recovery is at a low level [6][8][9]. - The cost support of industrial silicon is expected to increase, and it is predicted to fluctuate in the range of 8165 - 8555 for the 2509 contract. Polysilicon is expected to fluctuate in the range of 47310 - 50130 for the 2511 contract [6][10]. - The main logic for the current market situation is the mismatch of production capacity, leading to a situation where supply exceeds demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [15]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily View - Industrial Silicon - **Supply - side**: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 81,000 tons, a 3.85% increase compared to the previous week. The expected production schedule on the supply side is decreasing and remains at a low level [6]. - **Demand - side**: Last week, the demand for industrial silicon was 70,000 tons, a 1.40% decrease compared to the previous week. The demand recovery is at a low level [6]. - **Inventory**: The silicon inventory is 229,000 tons, at a high level. The social inventory is 540,000 tons, a 0.93% increase compared to the previous week. The sample enterprise inventory is 171,450 tons, a 3.40% decrease compared to the previous week. The main port inventory is 119,000 tons, a 0.83% decrease compared to the previous week [6]. - **Cost**: In the Xinjiang region, the production loss of the sample oxygen - passing 553 is 2,354 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - **Others**: The 09 contract basis is 940 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The MA20 is upward, and the 09 contract price closes below the MA20. The net short position of the main contract is increasing [6]. 3.2 Daily View - Polysilicon - **Supply - side**: Last week, the production of polysilicon was 26,500 tons, a 3.92% increase compared to the previous week. The predicted production schedule for August is 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase compared to the previous month [8]. - **Demand - side**: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 11 GW, a 1.78% decrease compared to the previous week. The inventory is 181,500 tons, a 1.56% increase compared to the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production of battery cells and components also shows different trends in production and inventory [9]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 229,000 tons, a 5.76% decrease compared to the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [12]. - **Cost**: The average cost of the polysilicon N - type material industry is 36,500 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 9,500 yuan/ton [9]. - **Others**: The 11 contract basis is - 1980 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The MA20 is upward, and the 11 contract price closes above the MA20. The net long position of the main contract is decreasing [12]. 3.3 Market Overview - **Industrial Silicon**: The prices of various contracts and spot prices have decreased to varying degrees. The weekly social inventory has increased, while the sample enterprise inventory has decreased, and the main port inventory has decreased [18]. - **Polysilicon**: The prices of various products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components have remained relatively stable, with some changes in production, inventory, and export volume [20]. 3.4 Other Aspects - **Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends**: The report presents the trends of the SI main contract basis and the 421 - 553 spread [22]. - **Inventory**: It shows the trends of industrial silicon inventory in different regions and types, including delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises [26]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The report shows the trends of industrial silicon production and capacity utilization in different regions and time periods [28]. - **Cost Composition**: It presents the trends of main production area electricity prices, silicon stone prices, graphite electrode prices, and some reducing agent prices [33]. - **Cost - Sample Region Trends**: It shows the cost - profit trends of 421 in Sichuan and Yunnan and the oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang [35]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The report provides the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon and the monthly supply - demand balance table of polysilicon [37][40][64]. - **Downstream Industry Trends**: It details the price, production, inventory, import - export, and other trends of downstream industries such as organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon [43][51][61].

Report Overview - The report is a Guotai Junan Futures' commodity research morning report for the black series dated August 5, 2025, covering various commodities including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs [1][2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate repeatedly, while rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese are likely to experience wide-range oscillations as market sentiment cools. Coke and coking coal are also forecasted to have wide-range fluctuations, and logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Yesterday's futures closing price was 790.5 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan or 0.96%. Some imported ore prices remained stable, while some domestic ore prices decreased. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - Rebar's RB2510 contract closed at 3,204 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan or 0.28%, and hot-rolled coil's HC2510 contract closed at 3,417 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan or 0.26%. Spot prices showed mixed changes. The trend strength for both is 0 [8] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon 2509 closed at 5,674 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan, and silicomanganese 2509 closed at 5,972 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. Spot prices of ferrosilicon in some regions decreased. The trend strength for both is 0 [12] Coke and Coking Coal - Coking coal's JM2509 contract closed at 1,005.5 yuan/ton, up 20.5 yuan or 2.1%, and coke's J2509 contract closed at 1,615 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 1.9%. Some spot prices of coking coal decreased. The trend strength for both is 0 [16] Logs - The 2509 contract of logs closed at 842 yuan, with a daily increase of 2.5% and a weekly increase of 1.4%. Spot prices of most log varieties remained stable. The trend strength is 0 [20] Macro and Industry News - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. In mid-July 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily output of crude steel, pig iron, and steel increased compared to the previous period [4][9][17]

Report Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper price rebounds due to overseas equity market recovery, mine - end production cut concerns, but upward height is limited in the off - season [1]. - Aluminum price fluctuates, with a short - term trend of weakening oscillation due to inventory accumulation and uncertain trade situation [3]. - Lead price is expected to oscillate weakly as supply remains loose [4]. - Zinc price has an increased risk of decline due to weak industry data and the weakening of previous supporting factors [5]. - Tin price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term due to the strengthening of the resumption of production in Myanmar and the weak supply - demand situation [6][7]. - Nickel price may decline as the macro - atmosphere cools, demand is weak, and the price of nickel ore is expected to fall [8]. - Lithium carbonate price may be supported at the bottom due to the expected improvement in the supply - demand relationship, but the supply reduction sustainability needs to be observed [10]. - Alumina price may face an over - capacity situation, and it is recommended to short at high prices [12]. - Stainless steel price is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term [14]. - Cast aluminum alloy price has limited rebound space due to weak supply - demand in the off - season [16]. Summary by Metal Copper - Price: LME copper rose 0.78% to $9708/ton, Shanghai copper main contract reached 78370 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 2175 tons to 139575 tons, domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased by 16000 tons [1]. - Price Outlook: In the current off - season, the upward space of copper price is limited, with the Shanghai copper main contract running between 77600 - 79000 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M between 9600 - 9800 dollars/ton [1]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum fell 0.06% to $2570/ton, Shanghai aluminum main contract reached 20440 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory accumulated, LME aluminum inventory increased by 925 tons to 463725 tons [3][18]. - Price Outlook: Aluminum price may oscillate weakly in the short term, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract running between 20350 - 20600 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M between 2540 - 2600 dollars/ton [3]. Lead - Price: Shanghai lead index rose 0.09% to 16751 yuan/ton, LME lead 3S rose to $1974.5/ton [4]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory decreased to 6.63 tons, LME lead inventory was 27.53 tons [4]. - Price Outlook: Lead price is expected to oscillate weakly as supply remains loose [4]. Zinc - Price: Shanghai zinc index fell 0.32% to 22249 yuan/ton, LME zinc 3S fell to $2734.5/ton [5]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory continued to accumulate to 10.73 tons, LME zinc inventory was 97000 tons [5][18]. - Production: In July 2025, the domestic refined zinc production was 60.28 tons, and it is expected to reach 62.15 tons in August [5]. - Price Outlook: The risk of zinc price decline increases due to weak industry data and the weakening of previous supporting factors [5]. Tin - Price: On August 4, 2025, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 266590 yuan/ton, up 0.56% [6]. - Supply - Demand: Supply is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, but short - term smelting faces raw material pressure; domestic demand is weak, while overseas demand is strong due to AI [6][7]. - Price Outlook: Tin price is expected to oscillate weakly, with the domestic tin price between 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton and LME tin price between 31000 - 33000 dollars/ton [7]. Nickel - Price: Nickel price rebounded slightly, nickel iron price was stable after rising, and refined nickel price rebounded slightly with flat trading [8]. - Market Situation: Macro - atmosphere cools, stainless steel price falls, and nickel ore price is expected to decline [8]. - Price Outlook: Nickel price is expected to decline, with the Shanghai nickel main contract between 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M between 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC index was 68832 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, and the LC2509 contract closed at 68920 yuan, also unchanged [10]. - Market Situation: The fundamental improvement depends on the actual reduction of the mine end, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to improve before the peak season [10]. - Price Outlook: Lithium carbonate price may be supported at the bottom, but the supply reduction sustainability needs to be observed, with the Guangzhou Futures Exchange LC2509 contract between 66800 - 70900 yuan/ton [10]. Alumina - Price: The alumina index rose 2.25% to 3224 yuan/ton, overseas FOB price fell to $376/ton, and the import window was closed [12]. - Inventory: The futures warehouse receipt was 0.66 tons, remaining at a historical low [12]. - Strategy: It is recommended to short at high prices, with the domestic main contract AO2509 between 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12925 yuan/ton, up 0.66%, and spot prices in some regions increased [14]. - Inventory: Social inventory decreased by 0.66%, but 300 - series inventory increased by 1.00%, and the supply of 316L was tight [14]. - Price Outlook: Stainless steel price is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term [14]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price: The AD2511 contract rose 0.05% to 19930 yuan/ton, and the spot price was flat [16]. - Inventory: The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in three regions decreased [16]. - Price Outlook: Cast aluminum alloy price has limited rebound space due to weak supply - demand in the off - season [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The price center of aluminum is moving downward, alumina is experiencing continuous inventory accumulation, and cast aluminum alloy prices are following those of electrolytic aluminum [1]. - The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all -1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,510, down 250 from a week ago and up 155 from a month ago. The trading volume was 127,617, a decrease of 17,683 from the previous day. The LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 2,572, down 60 from a week ago [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 3,162, down 60 from the previous day and 266 from a week ago. The trading volume was 275,347, a decrease of 105,822 from the previous day [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 19,920, down 30 from the previous day and 215 from a week ago. The trading volume was 2,098, an increase of 19 from the previous day [1]. Spot Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 525,000 tons, an increase of 31,000 tons from a week ago. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit was 3,790.34, a decrease of 39.92 from the previous day [1]. - **Alumina**: The average domestic alumina price was 3,274, unchanged from the previous day and up 19 from a week ago. The profit of Shanxi alumina enterprises was 294, a decrease of 38 from the previous day [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 was -249, unchanged from the previous day and up 59 from a week ago. The price of Baotai ADC12 was 19,500, down 100 from the previous day and 200 from a week ago [1]. Other Information - In June, China's imports and exports, exports, and imports all achieved positive year - on - year growth. The import increased by 1.1% and the export increased by 5.8% in US dollars. The export of industrial robots increased by 61.5% in the first half of this year [3].