Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Fuel oil shows a continuous rebound, and the short - term weakness has暂缓. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a narrow - range adjustment, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market remains at a historical low [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - For FU2603, the closing price is 2,824 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.97%, and the settlement price is 2,815 yuan/ton with a 1.40% increase. The trading volume is 545,609 lots with a decrease of 44,176 lots, and the open interest is 84,406 lots with a decrease of 13,781 lots. - For FU2604, the closing price is 2,817 yuan/ton with a 1.40% increase, and the settlement price is 2,804 yuan/ton with a 1.23% increase. The trading volume is 26,763 lots with a decrease of 11,478 lots, and the open interest is 22,058 lots with a decrease of 709 lots. - For LU2603, the closing price is 3,299 yuan/ton with a 0.70% increase, and the settlement price is 3,293 yuan/ton with a 1.26% increase. The trading volume is 4,646 lots with a decrease of 2,578 lots, and the open interest is 14,539 lots with a decrease of 720 lots. - For LU2604, the closing price is 3,285 yuan/ton with a 1.26% increase, and the settlement price is 3,283 yuan/ton with a 1.14% increase. The trading volume is 91,440 lots with a decrease of 15,961 lots, and the open interest is 80,624 lots with a decrease of 1,300 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total market warehouse receipts for fuel oil (FU) are 9,930 lots, and for low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) are 23,140 lots [1] - **Spot Prices**: - In Singapore FOB, the high - sulfur (3.5%S) price is 425.0 dollars/ton with a 1.93% daily increase, and the low - sulfur (0.5%S) price is 461.2 dollars/ton with a 1.55% daily increase. - In Singapore Bunker, the high - sulfur price is 432.0 dollars/ton with a 1.17% daily increase, and the low - sulfur price is 490.0 dollars/ton with a 1.66% daily increase. - In other regions like Fujeirah Bunker, Zhoushan Bunker, Shanghai Bunker, Tokyo Bunker, and South Korea Bunker, there are also corresponding price increases for both high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [1] - **Price Spreads**: - The spread between FU03 - 04 is 7 yuan/ton, and the settlement spread is 11 yuan/ton. - The spread between LU03 - 04 is 14 yuan/ton, and the settlement spread is 10 yuan/ton, with a spread difference of - 4 yuan/ton. - The spread between LU03 - FU03 is 475 yuan/ton, and the settlement spread is 478 yuan/ton, with a spread difference of 3 yuan/ton. - The spread between FU2603 and Singapore MOPS (3.5%S) is - 126.0 yuan/ton, with a change of - 28.9 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. - The spread between LU2603 and Singapore MOPS (0.5%S) is 98.2 yuan/ton, with a change of - 25.9 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. - The spread between Singapore MOPS (0.5%S - 3.5%S) is 36.1 dollars/ton, with a change of - 1.0 dollars/ton compared to the previous day [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of fuel oil is 0, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is also 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term price of PTA is expected to be volatile and bearish, and there is an inventory accumulation expectation in February. The short - term price of ethylene glycol is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom [3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Main Contract**: On February 4, the PTA main futures contract TA605 rose 1.36%, and the basis strengthened to - 52 yuan/ton [2] - **Fundamentals**: The market price of PTA in East China was 5150 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The Brent crude oil on the cost side rebounded to around $67.5 per barrel. The PTA capacity utilization rate increased by 1.07 to 76.90% compared with the previous working day. The weekly inventory days of PTA factories were 3.58 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from last week [3] - **Main Force Trends**: The long - position main force increased positions [3] - **Trend Expectation**: As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the terminal is about to have a holiday, the polyester production cut range is expanding, and the demand is weakening. There is an inventory accumulation expectation for PTA in February. Currently, the cost side has large disturbances, the crude oil trend fluctuates greatly, and PX is improving in the long - term. The short - term PTA price is regarded as volatile and bearish [3] MEG (Ethylene Glycol) - **Main Contract**: On February 4, the ethylene glycol main futures contract eg2605 rose 0.64%, and the basis strengthened to - 96 yuan/ton [4] - **Fundamentals**: The market price of ethylene glycol in East China was 3682 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The coal price rebounded. The total inventory of MEG in the main ports in East China was 82.2 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period [4] - **Main Force Trends**: There are differences between long - and short - position main forces [4] - **Trend Expectation**: The comprehensive operating rate of ethylene glycol has decreased, but the port inventory is still accumulating, and there are still large - ship arrival plans in February, so the inventory accumulation expectation is difficult to reverse. The downstream polyester demand before the festival has significantly weakened, resulting in a supply - demand imbalance. Considering the previous trend, there is a certain support around 3600 yuan/ton. It is expected that the ethylene glycol price will continue to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [4]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 4 日 LLDPE：进口缩窄递盘有限，油价支撑转弱 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 6865 | -0.19% | 627843 | 15259 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -185 | | -158 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -51 | | -41 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华 北 | 6680 | | 6720 | | | | 东 华 | 6800 | | 6880 | | | | 华 南 | 6900 | | 6940 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 期货研究 【现货消息】 期货震荡，上游前期库存转移，企业报价维持，代理开单及中游销售较弱 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the main contract for Shanghai tin futures increased by 5.30%, reaching a price of 393,100 yuan per ton [1] Group 2 - The increase in tin futures may indicate a rising demand or supply constraints in the market, which could impact pricing strategies for companies involved in the tin industry [1] - The fluctuation in commodity prices like tin can affect various sectors, including electronics and construction, where tin is a critical component [1] - Monitoring such price changes is essential for investors looking to capitalize on potential opportunities in the commodities market [1]

| 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 16680 | -1.10% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 1995 | -0.77% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 101052 | -21807 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 10642 | -4770 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 57029 | 549 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 170925 | -336 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | 50 | 0 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -45.87 | 1.85 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -95 | -370 | 进口升贴水（美 | 85 | 0 | | | | | 元/吨） | | | | 铅锭现货进口盈亏 | -97.18 | - ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The report indicates that tin is in a phase of decline and consolidation, with a trend strength of -1, suggesting a bearish outlook [1][3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Volume Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 392,650, with a daily decline of 11.00%, and the night - session closing price was 360,000, with a decline of 12.38%. The closing price of the LME Tin 3M electronic - disk futures was 45,605, with a decline of 9.87%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased by 277,948 to 190,922, and the position decreased by 1,757 to 38,322. The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic - disk increased by 153 to 1,143, and the position decreased by 14 to 25,211 [2]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin decreased by 427 to 8,097, and the inventory of LME Tin increased by 10 to 7,105. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, with a decrease of 0.38% [2]. - **Spot and Price Difference Data**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price decreased by 35,900 to 392,750, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price decreased by 31,000 to 392,500. The LME Tin (spot/three - month) spread decreased by 27 to - 227, the spread between the nearby contract and the consecutive first contract remained unchanged at 198,590, and the spread between the spot and the futures main contract increased by 6,130 to - 16,500 [2]. - **Industrial Chain Price Data**: The price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) decreased by 35,900 to 378,750, the price of 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) decreased by 35,900 to 382,750, the price of 63A solder bar decreased by 22,500 to 260,250, and the price of 60A solder bar decreased by 21,500 to 248,750 [2]. 2. Macro and Industry News - Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson stated that the details of talks with the US are still in the decision - making stage. The Shanghai Futures Exchange issued a notice on market risk control. Ant CEO issued an internal letter to increase incentives for "pioneering contributions" in AI. Medvedev confirmed that Russia and the US are having secret consultations [4].

商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 03 日 焦炭：高位震荡 焦煤：事件发酵，高位震荡 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023649 liuyuwu2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2605 | 1141.5 | -14 | -1.2% | | 期货价格 | | 12605 | 1680. 5 | -41 | -2.4% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2605 | 1342773 | 431903 | -19459 | | | | 12605 | 23708 | 36086 | -378 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | | 临汾低硫主售 吕梁低硫主焦 | 1630 1483 | 1630 1483 | 0 0 | | | 焦煤 | 吕梁瘦主焦煤 | 1243 | 1243 | 0 | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is expected to trade in a narrow range [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to trade weakly in resonance with market sentiment [2][7]. - Ferrosilicon is expected to trade weakly as cost expectations loosen, and silicomanganese is expected to trade weakly in resonance with commodity sentiment [2][12]. - Coke is expected to trade at high levels, and coking coal is expected to trade at high levels as events unfold [2][18][19]. - Thermal coal supply and demand are in a weak balance, and prices are expected to remain stable before the Spring Festival [2][23]. - Logs are expected to see a slight price increase [2][25]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of I2605 was 783.0 yuan/ton, down 8.5 yuan/ton or 1.07%. The open interest decreased by 20,544 to 520,684 lots. Spot prices of various iron ore types decreased, and some basis and price spreads changed [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, and some real - estate companies are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators monthly [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [5]. Hot - Rolled Coil and Rebar - **Fundamental Data**: In the week of January 29, rebar production increased by 0.28 million tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 3.8 million tons. Rebar inventory increased by 23.43 million tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.2 million tons. Rebar apparent demand decreased by 9.12 million tons, and hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 1.45 million tons [8][10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were various production, inventory, and price data from the China Iron and Steel Association, and an accident at Baotou Steel's plate plant. Also, BHP's iron ore production hit a record high, and China implemented export license management for some steel products [10][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral view [11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. Spot prices of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased by 20 yuan/ton, and that of silicomanganese decreased by 20 yuan/ton. Various price spreads changed [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The proportion of fixed - cost recovery of coal - fired power units through capacity prices will be increased. There were price quotes and production data of ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, and manganese ore from different sources. River Steel's 75B ferrosilicon tender price decreased, and manganese ore inventory increased [12][15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral view [17]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of coking coal (JM2605) and coke (J2605) decreased. Spot prices of most coking coal and coke types remained stable. Some basis and price spreads changed [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The CCI metallurgical coal index decreased, and the coking coal online auction had a higher failure rate and mixed price changes [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral view [22]. Thermal Coal - **Fundamental Data**: There were price data of thermal coal from different regions, including origin, port, and overseas prices. The February long - term contract prices of thermal coal in some regions decreased [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The port market was stable with weak trading. Some Indonesian coal mines may have a significant production cut. The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice on improving the power - generation - side capacity price mechanism [23][24]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: There were price, trading volume, and open - interest data of log futures contracts. Spot prices of various log types in different markets had different fluctuations [25]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, and some real - estate companies are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators monthly [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view [28].

Group 1: Rubber Market - Domestic all-latex rubber price is 15,800 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan/ton from the previous day; Thai 20 mixed rubber price is 15,000 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton [4][27] - As of February 1, 2026, Qingdao's total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade is 591,700 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons, or 1.23% from the previous period [5][28] - With the arrival of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, the market is expected to shift from dynamic pricing based on supply and demand to static pricing based on inventory levels, leading to high volatility in RU&NR&Sicom prices in the short term [5][28] Group 2: PX Market - PX industry load in China increased by 0.3 percentage points to 89.2%, while the Asian industry load increased by 0.6 percentage points to 81.6%, indicating a stable supply [6][29] - The demand side shows that downstream PTA facilities have many maintenance plans in the first quarter, which may affect PX demand [6][29] - The first quarter is expected to see a loosening of the PX supply-demand structure, with short-term price fluctuations anticipated [6][29] Group 3: PTA Market - PTA industry load remains stable at 76.6%, which is low compared to historical levels, with expectations of tightening supply due to maintenance plans [7][30] - The demand side is weak, with new orders declining and factory operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang continuing to fall [7][30] - The PTA spot basis is expected to weaken due to reduced polyester production, leading to inventory pressure in the first quarter [7][30] Group 4: Polyester Market - Several polyester production facilities are undergoing maintenance, with a total capacity of 1.8% affected [8][31] - The average sales estimate for polyester in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is around 20-30% as of 3:30 PM on Monday, indicating weak demand [8][31] Group 5: Soda Ash Market - Soda ash futures experienced a slight decline, with the latest production increasing by 11,000 tons to 783,000 tons, indicating rising supply pressure [15][38] - Downstream demand has slightly decreased, with the latest soda ash factory inventory increasing by 16,000 tons to 156,000 tons [15][38] - The market sentiment is weak, with soda ash prices expected to remain low in the short term [15][38] Group 6: Glass Market - Glass futures saw a slight decline, with inventory decreasing by 33,000 tons to 2,628,000 tons, while production remained stable [40][41] - The demand for glass is weak due to seasonal factors, with the latest deep processing order quantity decreasing [40][41] Group 7: Caustic Soda Market - As of February 2, 2026, caustic soda futures increased by 29 yuan/ton to 2,004 yuan/ton, with stable prices in the market [42][43] - Demand is generally weak, but some caustic soda companies are reducing production, leading to stable prices [42][43] Group 8: PVC Market - PVC futures decreased by 49 yuan/ton to 5,014 yuan/ton, with supply pressure remaining high due to elevated operating rates [44][45] - Short-term expectations for PVC are optimistic due to a significant reduction in production growth in 2026 [44][45] Group 9: Polyolefins Market - Polyolefins are experiencing wide fluctuations, with LLDPE futures up and PP futures down, indicating mixed market conditions [46] - The overall supply trend remains high, but demand is entering a seasonal downturn [46]

Group 1 - The significant drop in gold prices on Friday may have been accelerated by a "gamma squeeze," which occurs when prices cross through large options positions, forcing traders with short options to buy more futures or gold ETF shares to balance their portfolios [1] - On Friday, there were substantial options expirations for the SPDR Gold ETF at strike prices of $465 and $455, indicating a concentration of positions that could influence market movements [1] - Additionally, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange had a large concentration of positions for March and April options at strike prices of $5300, $5200, and $5100, further contributing to the potential for price volatility [1]