Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is expected to oscillate repeatedly [2][5] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil prices are likely to show strong oscillatory trends driven by macro sentiment [2][6] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are predicted to have wide-range oscillations [2][11] - Coke is expected to have a strong oscillatory trend [2][14] - Coking coal is supported by fundamentals and is likely to have a strong oscillatory trend [2][15] - Logs are expected to oscillate repeatedly [2][17] Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 792.5 yuan/ton, up 6.0 yuan or 0.76%. The previous day's position was 548,944 lots, a decrease of 9,902 lots. Among spot prices, the price of Karara fines (65%) increased by 6.0 yuan, PB fines (61.5%) by 4.0 yuan, and the price of Jinbuba (61%) decreased by 4.0 yuan. The basis of (12601, against Super Special) decreased by 6.0 yuan, and the basis of (12601, against Jinbuba) decreased by 10.3 yuan [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 28, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China put forward suggestions on formulating the "15th Five-Year Plan" [4] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2601, the previous day's closing price was 3,091 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 0.49%. For hot-rolled coil HC2601, the previous day's closing price was 3,305 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan or 0.85%. Among spot prices, the prices of rebar in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Beijing increased by 10 - 20 yuan, and the prices of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou increased by 10 - 20 yuan. The basis of (RB2601) increased by 19 yuan, and the basis of (HC2601) increased by 4 yuan [6] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 28, the suggestions on formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for national economic and social development were released, which mentioned promoting the high-quality development of the steel industry. On October 23, the weekly data from Steel Union showed that the production of rebar increased by 5.91 tons, hot-rolled coil by 0.62 tons, and the total inventory of rebar decreased by 18.94 tons, hot-rolled coil by 4.27 tons. In September 2025, the national crude steel production was 73.49 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6% [7][9] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of ferrosilicon 2601 was 5,564 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the closing price of silicomanganese 2601 was 5,790 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. Among spot prices, the price of manganese ore increased by 0.1 yuan/ton degree. The spot-futures price difference of ferrosilicon was -344 yuan/ton, and that of silicomanganese was -110 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan [11] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 28, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in various regions was 5,100 - 5,250 yuan/ton, and the price range of 75 ferrosilicon was 5,700 - 5,800 yuan/ton. The northern quotation of 6517 silicomanganese was 5,550 - 5,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan, and the southern quotation was 5,600 - 5,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan. In October, the operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises in Xinjiang, Sichuan, Shanxi, and Chongqing was 37.5%, a decrease of 6.25% compared to September, and the output was expected to be 0.9 tons, a decrease of 0.06 tons compared to September [11] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's closing price of coking coal JM2601 was 1,263.5 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 1.2%, and the closing price of coke J2601 was 1,779.5 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 1.3%. Among spot prices, the price of Jinquan Mongolian 5 coking coal increased by 25 yuan, and the price of Shanxi quasi-primary coke delivered to the factory increased by 50 yuan. The basis of JM2601 in Shanxi decreased by 15.0 yuan, and the basis of J2601 in Shanxi quasi-primary delivered to the factory increased by 28.0 yuan [15] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 28, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China put forward suggestions on formulating the "15th Five-Year Plan" [16] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [16] Logs - **Fundamentals**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price decreased by 4.2%, the trading volume decreased by 9.2%, and the position decreased by 49.1%. For the 2601 contract, the closing price decreased by 5.1%, the trading volume increased by 415.9%, and the position decreased by 11.7%. Among spot prices, most of the prices of various types of logs remained unchanged, with only a few showing slight decreases [18] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 28, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China put forward suggestions on formulating the "15th Five-Year Plan" [20] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [20]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has released recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the importance of developing direct financing methods such as equity and bonds, and promoting the steady growth of futures, derivatives, and asset securitization [1] Group 1 - The recommendations highlight the need for active development of direct financing methods, including equity and bond markets [1] - There is a focus on the gradual development of futures and derivatives markets [1] - The plan also emphasizes the importance of asset securitization as a means to enhance financial stability and efficiency [1]

Industry Overview - The capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises decreased to 76.57%, down 0.12% week-on-week and 0.67% year-on-year. The calcium carbide method utilization was at 74.38%, down 0.34% week-on-week and 1.91% year-on-year, while the ethylene method increased to 81.64%, up 0.38% week-on-week and 1.68% year-on-year [1] - The maintenance loss for PVC production last week was 80,500 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons compared to the previous period [1] - The current PVC industry inventory stands at 1.4249 million tons, showing a slight decrease from last week. The overall inventory (upstream + social) decreased by 1.47% week-on-week [1] Institutional Insights - Zhengxin Futures noted that with maintenance gradually recovering and high absolute inventory levels, the fundamental support is insufficient. However, prices are at relatively low levels, and domestic policy expectations suggest that PVC will mainly experience low-level fluctuations in the short term [2] - Guotou Anxin Futures observed that while pressure from manufacturers and society has decreased, the overall situation remains under high pressure. Production has slightly declined due to maintenance, and domestic demand is stable. Export activities in September continued to show positive trends. Recent stability in calcium carbide prices has not significantly supported costs, indicating a continuation of a weak market environment, with PVC likely operating within a bottom range due to potential policy pressures on exports [3]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The coal mine operating rate has increased, with the Erdos coal mine operating rate at 71% and the Yulin area at 44% as of October 23. Coal production has recovered, and the daily coal output in Erdos and Yulin is around 4 million tons. The pithead price has been rising due to strong demand [4]. - On the supply side, the raw coal price is firm, the auction price of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest is strong, the profit of coal - to - methanol is around 660 yuan/ton, and the methanol operating rate remains stable at a high level, resulting in a continuous loose domestic supply [4]. - At the import end, the US dollar price has slightly declined, and imports remain in a positive spread situation. Iranian plants are mostly operating normally, the non - Iranian operating rate has slightly declined, and the overseas operating rate is at a high level. The European and American markets have slightly declined, the China - Europe price difference is oscillating, and the Southeast Asian re - export window is closed. Iran has loaded 750,000 tons in October. Affected by sanctions, Iranian tenders have offered significant discounts, and there is an abundance of non - Iranian supplies [4]. - In terms of demand, the traditional downstream has entered the off - season with a decline in the operating rate, while the operating rate of MTO plants has increased. Some MTO plants are operating stably, while others are operating at less than full capacity [4]. - Regarding inventory, the import arrival has slightly decreased, the port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, and the basis is strong; the inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated within a narrow range [4]. - Overall, the international plant operating rate has increased, some plants in Iran have restarted, and the daily output has increased to around 35,000 tons. Imports are gradually resuming, the port spot liquidity is sufficient, and the overall trading is light. The basis of spot prices is stable. The downstream demand is stable, the arrival volume is stable, the MTO operating rate has slightly declined, and the port inventory continues to accumulate. In the short term, methanol is mainly oscillating weakly under the background of high inventory [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Trading strategies: For single - side trading, short at high prices without chasing short positions; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; in the over - the - counter market, sell call options [4] Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking - **Supply - Domestic**: As of October 23, the overall domestic methanol plant operating load was 75.85%, a decrease of 0.70 percentage points from last week but an increase of 1.29 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load in the northwest region was 84.89%, a decrease of 1.07 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 1.70 percentage points from the same period last year. The average operating load of non - integrated methanol plants was 67.80%, a decrease of 0.95 percentage points from last week [5]. - **Supply - International**: In the period from October 18 - 24, 2025, the international (ex - China) methanol production was 1,069,909 tons, a decrease of 25,950 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 73.34%. Some Iranian plants had different operating conditions, and only the M5 large - scale plant in South American MHTL was in operation [5]. - **Supply - Import**: As of 14:00 on October 22, 2025, the sample arrival volume of Chinese methanol at ports was 352,000 tons, including 316,300 tons of foreign vessels (251,800 tons of visible and 64,500 tons of non - visible, with 188,800 tons of visible in Jiangsu) and 35,700 tons of domestic vessels (6,500 tons in Jiangsu and 29,200 tons in Guangdong) [5]. - **Demand - MTO**: As of October 23, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 87.25%, a decrease of 0.83 percentage points from last week. The overall olefin industry operating rate decreased this week [5]. - **Demand - Traditional**: The capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether was 5.33%, a month - on - month decrease of 9.97%. The capacity utilization rate of acetic acid was 74.4%. The formaldehyde operating rate was 38.87%. The overall capacity utilization rate of traditional downstream industries decreased compared with last week [5]. - **Demand - Direct Sales**: The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region was 51,300 tons, a decrease of 11,700 tons from the previous statistical date, a month - on - month decrease of 18.57% [5]. - **Inventory - Enterprises**: The inventory of production enterprises was 360,400 tons, an increase of 500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 215,700 tons, a decrease of 13,300 tons from the previous period [5]. - **Inventory - Ports**: As of October 22, 2025, the total methanol port inventory was 1,512,200 tons, an increase of 20,800 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 30,000 tons, while that in South China decreased by 9,200 tons [5]. - **Valuation**: In terms of profit, the chemical coal in the northwest region rebounded, and the methanol price declined. The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was around 460 yuan/ton, and in northern Shaanxi, it was 480 yuan/ton. The MTO loss narrowed, and the basis was stable [5]. - **Spot Prices**: The price in Taicang was 2,260 yuan/ton (- 20 yuan), and the price in the north line was 2,000 yuan/ton (- 60 yuan) [8]

苯乙烯产业链期货周报 研究员：隋斐 期货从业证号：F3019741 投资咨询证号：Z0017025 单边：中长期原油过剩预期难以证伪，成本支撑不足，供需格局偏弱，纯苯价格仍有向下压力。思路上维持逢高做空。 套利：观望 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 17 GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析-纯苯】 【交易策略】 期权：观望 GALAXY FUTURES 2 纯苯：上游方面，美国原油库存连续三周累库，地缘冲突影响反复，油价缺乏确定性的上行驱动，中长期原油过剩的预期难以证伪；纯苯&苯 乙烯成本支撑不足。节后中石化纯苯挂牌价较节前继续下调，本周纯苯华东港口库存下降，下旬纯苯抵港货源不多，后半周受英国制裁消息影 响华东现货市场成交气氛有所改善， 山东市场低价买气增加，成交有一定放量，加氢苯市场粗苯成交价格大幅回落带动加氢苯价格下调，山 东苯乙烯主流工厂检修，纯苯供应宽松，山东对华东市场纯苯贴水扩大，套利窗口打开。 节后京博石化裂解装置计划外停车，涉及纯苯年产能7万吨，本周广州石化10万吨纯苯计划内检修，计划检修至12月上旬，裕龙石化2 ...

2025 年 10 月 24 日 商 品 研 究 硅铁：成本底部抬升，宽幅震荡 锰硅：成本底部抬升，宽幅震荡 | | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 金园园（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁2601 | 5574 | 3 6 | 128,690 | 184,331 | | 期 货 | 硅铁2605 | 5632 | 3 4 | 1,605 | 6,799 | | | 锰硅2601 | 5818 | 8 | 150,568 | 352,292 | | | 锰硅2605 | 5860 | 1 2 | 5,593 | 28,908 | | | 项 目 | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | -- ...

Report Information - Report Title: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Report Date: October 24, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core View - Oil prices rebounded, and asphalt followed suit. The previous strategy of going long on asphalt and short on crude oil was gradually stopped for profit. For the time being, take a wait - and - see approach on single - side trading [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: For BU2601, the opening price was 3236 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3277 yuan/ton, the highest was 3300 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3236 yuan/ton, the increase was 2.31%, and the trading volume was 283,000 lots. For BU2512, the opening price was 3255 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3294 yuan/ton, the highest was 3311 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3255 yuan/ton, the increase was 2.01%, and the trading volume was 62,300 lots [6] - Spot Market: Prices in North China, Shandong, and South China rose, those in Northeast China fell significantly, and prices in other regions were relatively stable. The decline in Northeast was due to weakening road - oriented demand and falling low - sulfur asphalt prices [6] - Supply: Liaohe Petrochemical plans to increase production, but the reduction at East China's Jinling Petrochemical and the non - resumption plans of some refineries in Shandong and Henan may lead to a decline in this week's asphalt operating rate [6] - Demand: Rainfall decreased in the north, providing some support for rigid demand, but the capital problem of small and medium - sized projects remained severe, and speculative demand was also low [6] 2. Industry News - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3340 - 3550 yuan/ton, remaining stable. Despite reduced supply from refineries, sufficient social inventory and low - price sales by some traders made it difficult to raise prices [7] - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3270 - 3620 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The rebound of international oil prices and asphalt futures boosted market sentiment. Although refinery quotes were stable, some traders raised prices, and good sales of low - price resources drove up the low - end price [7] 3. Data Overview - The report presented multiple data charts, including South China asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [9][13][15]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to be relatively strong due to the rebound of crude oil prices. The trend strength of asphalt is rated as 1, indicating a moderately positive outlook [1][10]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: - BU2511 closed at 3,351 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.75%, and 3,360 yuan/ton in the night session with a night - session increase of 0.27%. Its trading volume was 23,261 lots (a decrease of 13,871 lots), and the open interest was 20,836 lots (a decrease of 6,357 lots). - BU2512 closed at 3,294 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.80%, and 3,313 yuan/ton in the night session with a night - session increase of 0.58%. Its trading volume was 62,268 lots (an increase of 11,812 lots), and the open interest was 62,327 lots (a decrease of 14,053 lots). - The total market asphalt warehouse receipts were 12,420 lots with no change [1]. - **Spot Market**: - The Shandong wholesale price was 3,340 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,470 yuan/ton with no change. - The refinery operating rate was 37.64% (an increase of 1.06% from the previous period), and the refinery inventory rate was 29.90% (an increase of 0.09% from the previous period) [1]. - **Spreads**: - The basis (Shandong - 11) was - 11 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous day. - The 11 - 12 inter - period spread was 57 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton from the previous day. - The Shandong - South China spread was - 60 (an increase of 10 from the previous day), and the East China - South China spread was 70 yuan/ton with no change [1]. 2. Market Information - In November 2025, the domestic asphalt production plan of local refineries was 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 292,000 tons (a decrease rate of 18.2%) and a year - on - year decrease of 91,000 tons (a decrease rate of 6.5%) [12]. - As of October 20, 2025, the total inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample refinery warehouses was 760,000 tons, a decrease of 1.3% from October 16. The refinery warehouses in the Southwest and South China regions had obvious destocking. - As of October 20, 2025, the total inventory of 104 domestic asphalt social warehouses was 1.394 million tons, a decrease of 2.0% from October 16. The social warehouses in Shandong and the Northwest regions had obvious destocking [12].

Core Viewpoint - The main focus of the article is the significant increase in coking coal futures, with the leading contract rising by 4% [1] Group 1 - Coking coal futures have seen a notable price increase, indicating strong market demand or potential supply constraints [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene, Polypropylene, Styrene, PVC, Methanol: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Bottle Chip, Urea, Caustic Soda, Glass: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] - Pure Benzene: Not rated in the table, but with analysis in the report [3] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: The symbol in the table is unclear [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows a mixed trend, with different products having different price trends and supply - demand situations. Some products are affected by factors such as inventory, cost, demand, and policies, and their short - term and medium - term trends vary [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures rose, with controllable enterprise inventories and stable offers. Downstream follow - up was okay, and the trading range was stable [2] - Polyethylene futures rose, but the market was waiting for news, with cost support weakening and supply pressure. Sellers mostly offered small discounts [2] - Polypropylene futures rose. Although the supply pressure decreased due to more upstream maintenance, the demand improvement in the peak season was limited, and the high - level inventory was slowly digested. The supply - demand contradiction may increase, and the price may remain low for a long time [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures prices rebounded above 5500 yuan/ton. The spot price in East China rebounded, and the low - level transactions in Shandong improved. The short - term price may rebound, but the high import volume in the medium term is the main pressure [3] - Styrene futures rose, but there were only expected device shutdowns. The inventory remained high, and the upward price momentum was limited [3] Polyester - PX and PTA rebounded with reduced positions. The short - term price may continue to rebound, mainly depending on oil prices. In the medium term, with the weakening demand and expected inventory accumulation, the strategy is mainly reverse arbitrage [5] - Ethylene glycol rebounded with increased positions. The short - term price has a rebound expectation, but there is still inventory accumulation pressure in the medium term, suggesting shorting at high prices [5] - Short fiber continued to be a bullish allocation. The new production capacity was limited, the inventory was decreasing, and the downstream备货 sentiment was improved [5] - Bottle chip demand weakened, with inventory accumulation and pressure on processing margins. The long - term pressure is over - capacity [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol fluctuated at a low level. The short - term coastal market may fluctuate within a range, and the price may be bullish in the medium - to - long term as the import supply pressure is expected to decrease [6] - Urea futures prices rose slightly. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate strongly within a range, supported by the marginal improvement of supply - demand and coal prices [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC showed a fluctuating trend. The supply may increase, and it may operate at the bottom range due to weak domestic demand and potential export policy pressure [7] - Caustic soda fluctuated narrowly. The supply fluctuated slightly, and it is recommended to be cautious when shorting due to non - aluminum downstream restocking and a high basis [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash fluctuated strongly. The supply was still high, and it is recommended to short at high prices after a rebound [8] - Glass fluctuated narrowly. The inventory continued to accumulate, and the downward range is expected to be limited. It is advisable to pay attention to selling out - of - the - money put options [8]