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纯苯:四季度偏弱
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 01:43
Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of pure benzene is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The report suggests that pure benzene will be weak in the fourth quarter [2]. 2) Core View - The report analyzes the fundamentals of pure benzene, including futures prices, price spreads, port inventories, and market news. It concludes that pure benzene will be weak in the fourth quarter [1][2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - Futures prices: BZ2603, BZ2604, and paper - based prices (N + 1, N + 2) decreased, while BZ2605 remained unchanged. Price spreads such as BZ2603 - EB2508 and BZ2604 - BZ2605 also changed [1]. - Port inventories: Pure benzene's East - China port inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 134,000 tons, and styrene's East - China port inventory increased by 6,760 tons to 133,690 tons [1]. - Price differences: The price difference between Shandong pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene decreased by 100, and the difference between Shandong and East - China pure benzene increased by 25 [1]. [News] - As of September 15, 2025, Jiangsu's pure benzene port inventory decreased by 10,000 tons (6.94% MoM) to 134,000 tons, up 168% YoY. Jiangsu's styrene port inventory decreased by 17,500 tons (9.92% MoM) to 159,000 tons [2]. - On September 15, Shandong's non - long - term pure benzene non - long - association trading volume was about 1,700 tons, with an average price of 6,005 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton. East - China's pure benzene spot and forward prices also increased [2].
纯苯:短期震荡,四季度偏弱
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 01:59
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of pure benzene is volatile, and it will be weak in the fourth quarter [1] - The trend strength of pure benzene is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - In futures prices, BZ2603 was 6073, up 41 from the previous day; BZ2604 was 6055, up 29; BZ2605 was 6072, up 27. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as BZ2603 - BZ2604 increasing by 12 to 18 [1] - The paper - cargo prices N + 1 and N + 2 both increased by 60, reaching 6005 and 6015 respectively [1] - Shandong pure benzene price was 6035, up 30 from the previous day. The difference between Shandong pure benzene price and hydrogenated benzene price increased by 30 to 180, while the difference with East China pure benzene price decreased by 30 to 45 [1] - Pure benzene inventory in East China ports decreased by 1 to 13.4, and styrene inventory in East China ports increased by 6760 to 133690 [1] 3.2 News - As of September 15, 2025, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 13.4 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.0 tons (6.94%) and a year - on - year increase of 8.4 tons (168.00%). From September 8 - 14, arrivals were about 1.8 tons and pick - ups were about 2.8 tons [2] - As of September 15, 2025, the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports was 15.9 tons, a decrease of 1.75 tons (- 9.92%) from the previous period. The commercial inventory was 7.8 tons, a decrease of 0.9 tons (- 10.34%) [2] - On September 15, the non - long - term contract trading volume of Shandong pure benzene was about 1700 tons, with a self - pick - up price range of 6000 - 6010 yuan/ton and an average price of 6005 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from the previous day [2] - The spot negotiation price of pure benzene in East China was 5910 - 5950 yuan/ton (average 5930, up 20). The September lower transaction price was 5910 - 5960 yuan/ton (average 5935, up 25), the October lower was 5920 - 5970 yuan/ton (average 5945, up 35), and the November lower was 5930 - 5980 yuan/ton (average 5955, up 30) [2]
2025/26年度欧盟玉米进口量为188万吨 早籼稻期货保持不变
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-03 03:08
Market Overview - The domestic grain market experienced a significant decline this week, with early indica rice futures remaining unchanged at 2500.00 CNY/ton as of the report [1] U.S. Corn Export Data - According to the USDA's export inspection report, the corn export inspection volume for the week ending August 28, 2025, was 1,407,050 tons, exceeding the high end of expectations, marking a 5% increase from the previous week and a 46% year-on-year increase [1] EU Corn Import Statistics - The European Commission reported that the corn import volume for the 2025/26 season reached 1.88 million tons as of August 31, compared to 3.76 million tons during the same period last year [1] U.S. Corn Crop Condition - The USDA's crop report indicated that the good-to-excellent rating for U.S. corn was 69% as of August 31, down from 71% the previous week and up from 65% the same time last year, aligning with market expectations [1] Brazil Corn Harvest Update - The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture's National Supply Company (CONAB) reported that the second corn harvest completion rate was 100% as of August 30, up from 94.8% the previous week and compared to 97.0% last year, with a five-year average of 93.2% [1]
LPG:宏观风险加剧,原油成本上行,丙烯:现货价格支撑仍在,关注回落风险
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-03 02:59
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For LPG, macro risks are intensifying, and crude oil costs are rising [1] - For propylene, the spot price support remains, but attention should be paid to the risk of price decline [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **LPG Futures Prices**: PG2510 closed at 4,421 yesterday with a 0.66% increase and 4,436 in the night session with a 0.34% increase; PG2511 closed at 4,342 yesterday with a 0.79% increase and 4,361 in the night session with a 0.44% increase; PL2601 closed at 6,405 yesterday with a -0.28% decrease and 6,425 in the night session with a 0.31% increase; PL2602 closed at 6,432 yesterday with a -0.23% decrease and 6,450 in the night session with a 0.28% increase [1] - **LPG Trading Volume and Open Interest**: PG2510 had a trading volume of 81,890 yesterday, a decrease of 3,573 from the previous day, and an open interest of 74,648, a decrease of 3,176 from the previous day; PG2511 had a trading volume of 17,534 yesterday, a decrease of 4,790 from the previous day, and an open interest of 36,095, an increase of 993 from the previous day; PL2601 had a trading volume of 4,421 yesterday, a decrease of 712 from the previous day, and an open interest of 8,146, an increase of 1,311 from the previous day; PL2602 had a trading volume of 34 yesterday, a decrease of 42 from the previous day, and an open interest of 862, an increase of 13 from the previous day [1] - **LPG Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the PG10 contract was 39 yesterday, compared to 138 the previous day; the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the PG10 contract was 79 yesterday, compared to 138 the previous day; the spread between Shandong propylene and the PL01 contract was 230 yesterday, compared to 192 the previous day; the spread between East China propylene and the PL01 contract was 170 yesterday, compared to 127 the previous day; the spread between South China propylene and the PL01 contract was 70 yesterday, compared to 52 the previous day [1] - **LPG Industry Chain Data**: The PDH operating rate this week was 73.0%, down from 75.7% last week; the MTBE operating rate was 63.5%, unchanged from the previous level; the alkylation operating rate was 49.6%, up from 49.0% [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and the trend intensity of propylene is 0. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [5] 3.3 Market News - On September 2, 2025, the October CP paper cargo price for propane was 540 US dollars per ton, up 6 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day; the price for butane was 514 US dollars per ton, up 6 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day. The November CP paper cargo price for propane was 551 US dollars per ton, up 7 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day [6] - There are multiple domestic PDH device maintenance plans, including those of Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc. Additionally, Ningbo Jinfa's 1 (60) is expected to stop for maintenance for 3 weeks in early September [7] - There are domestic liquefied gas plant device maintenance plans, but specific details are not provided in the text [8]
2025年9月PX、PTA、MEG策略报告-20250901
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 11:07
Report Title - PX & PTA & MEG Strategy Report for September 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - PX supply is expected to reach a high level in September, with short - process MX being abundant and new MX production adding to PX output. However, downstream TA maintenance is increasing, and with the continuous compression of TA processing fees, TA devices may have further maintenance. Thus, PX fundamentals are weak, and it may show a weak and volatile trend without significant crude oil fluctuations [150]. - For PTA, although the polyester operating load is rising and the fundamentals are improving, the price performance is weak, and the TA processing fee is still compressed below 200 yuan/ton. The "Golden September and Silver October" demand is facing challenges, with increasing external tariff risks. The TA price is expected to have support and show an overall volatile trend [150]. - MEG's operating load has climbed to a high level. In September, there are both maintenance and restart of devices. The port inventory is low, and the spot liquidity is tight. With supply contraction and demand increase, the port inventory is expected to remain low, and the short - term price may be volatile and strong [150]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. PX&PTA&MEG Price: Follow Crude Oil Price Oscillation - **Futures Prices**: From July 31 to August 28, 2025, PTA futures closing price decreased from 4808 yuan/ton to 4792 yuan/ton (-0.3%), MEG increased from 4414 yuan/ton to 4465 yuan/ton (1.2%), and PX decreased from 6928 yuan/ton to 6886 yuan/ton (-0.6%) [6]. - **Basis and Spread**: For PTA basis, it changed from - 17 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton (-17.6%); MEG basis changed from 71 yuan/ton to 64 yuan/ton (-9.9%); PX basis changed from 188 yuan/ton to 97 yuan/ton (-48.6%). The TA - EG spread decreased from 394 yuan/ton to 327 yuan/ton (-17.0%), and the TA - PX*0.656 spread decreased from 337 yuan/ton to 313 yuan/ton (-7.2%) [16][19][22]. - **International and Domestic Price Differences**: The ethylene glycol price difference between Europe and China increased from 52 dollars/ton to 150 dollars/ton (186.8%) [26]. 2. PX&PTA&MEG Supply Situation: Focus on Device Recovery - **PX**: As of August 29, Asian PX operating load was 75.6% (month - on - month increase of 2.7 percentage points), and China's was 83.3% (month - on - month increase of 3.4 percentage points). The 160 - million - ton PX device of Fuhua Group restarted in early September. Multiple new reforming devices are expected to be put into operation starting from August, which may increase PX output [33][58][59]. - **PTA**: As of August 29, PTA operating load was 70.4% (month - on - month decrease of 9.3 percentage points). There were device maintenance and new device production. The autumn maintenance plan is concentrated in September - October [37][60]. - **MEG**: As of August 28, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 75.13% (month - on - month increase of 5.79%). There are device restart and maintenance plans in September [52][61]. 3. PX&PTA&MEG Import and Export Situation: Tariff Extension for 90 Days - **Imports and Exports in July 2025**: China's PX imports were 78.20 million tons (month - on - month increase of 2.17%), PTA exports were 37.42 million tons (month - on - month increase of 46.66%), and ethylene glycol imports were 59.14 million tons (month - on - month decrease of 4.27%) [64][65][76]. - **Polyester Exports**: In July 2025, the total polyester export was 120.33 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.68%. Different polyester products had different export trends [75][77]. 4. PX&PTA&MEG Inventory Situation: Downstream Finished Product Inventory Rebounds - **PTA**: Polyester factories' PTA raw material inventory increased, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [86]. - **MEG**: As of August 25, the ethylene glycol port inventory in the East China main port area was about 50 million tons, reaching a low level [89]. 5. Polyester Demand Situation: Terminal Demand Faces Challenges - **Domestic Polyester Data**: As of August 29, the polyester operating load was 90.3% (month - on - month increase of 2.5%). The inventory days of some polyester products changed, and the cash flow also changed [92]. - **Terminal Demand**: In July, textile and clothing exports faced downward pressure. With the extension of tariffs for 90 days, the export expectation of Chinese textiles and clothing is expected to improve [106][103]. 6. PX&PTA&MEG Positioning Situation - **Futures Positions**: From July 31 to August 28, 2025, PTA total positions decreased from 1,493,200 lots to 1,360,753 lots, MEG total positions decreased from 357,146 lots to 320,792 lots, and PX total positions increased from 243,421 lots to 289,662 lots [119].
棕榈油:基本面暂无新驱动,等待回调,豆油:四季度缺豆交易暂缓,震荡整理
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 03:02
Report Summary Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Palm oil: The fundamental situation has no new driving forces, and it is waiting for a pullback [1]. - Soybean oil: The trading of soybean shortages in the fourth quarter has暂缓, and it is in a range - bound consolidation [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil's day - trading closing price was 9,424 yuan/ton with a - 0.67% change, and night - trading was 9,488 yuan/ton with a 0.68% change; soybean oil's day - trading was 8,536 yuan/ton (0.00% change) and night - trading was 8,402 yuan/ton (- 1.57% change); rapeseed oil's day - trading was 9,941 yuan/ton (- 0.57% change) and night - trading was 9,810 yuan/ton (- 1.32% change); Malaysian palm oil's day - trading was 4,470 ringgit/ton (- 0.51% change) and night - trading was 4,451 ringgit/ton (- 0.43% change); CBOT soybean oil was 53.46 cents/pound (- 2.57% change) [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil's trading volume was 29,423 lots (- 7,102 change) and open interest was 31,104 lots (- 11,004 change); soybean oil's trading volume was 25,058 lots (- 10,177 change) and open interest was 37,839 lots (- 14,776 change); rapeseed oil's trading volume was 12,749 lots (- 1,539 change) and open interest was 18,022 lots (- 6,367 change) [2]. - **Spot Prices**: 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,470 yuan/ton (- 150 change); first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,850 yuan/ton (+ 130 change); fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,950 yuan/ton (+ 40 change); Malaysian palm oil FOB was 1,110 dollars/ton (- 5 change) [2]. - **Basis**: Palm oil in Guangdong was 46 yuan/ton; soybean oil in Guangdong was 314 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spreads**: Rapeseed - palm oil futures spread was 321 yuan/ton; soybean - palm oil futures spread was - 1,044 yuan/ton; palm oil 9 - 1 spread was - 76 yuan/ton; soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 80 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was 120 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Macro and Industry News - **Malaysian Palm Oil Production**: From August 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield decreased by 3.26% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.4% month - on - month, and production decreased by 1.21% month - on - month [3]. - **Tax Exemption in Malaysia**: Malaysia's Ministry of Plantation Industries and Commodities is seeking to exempt crude and refined palm kernel oil from the sales and service tax (SST). Currently, these two products face a 5% special tax [5]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil Tariff**: The US has agreed in principle to exclude Indonesian palm oil, cocoa, and rubber from the 19% tariff, but the final agreement has no set schedule [5]. - **Indian Vegetable Oil Tax**: The Indian Vegetable Oil Producers' Association (IVPA) urges the government to cancel the tax credit refund restrictions implemented since July 2022 [6]. - **Pakistani Soybean Purchase**: Pakistan is expected to sign a purchase agreement to import about 1.1 million tons of soybeans from US exporters, with a total value of about 500 million dollars [6]. - **Brazilian Soybean Regulations**: A Brazilian federal judge has temporarily suspended a decision by the country's antitrust regulator regarding the "Amazon soybean ban" [7]. - **Brazilian Soybean Exports**: Brazil's soybean exports in August are expected to be 8.9 million tons, and soybean meal exports are expected to be 2.13 million tons [7]. - **Soybean Crushing Profit in Brazil**: In Mato Grosso from August 18 - 22, the soybean crushing profit was 387.05 reais/ton [7]. - **EU Oil Imports**: As of August 24, the EU's 2025/26 palm oil imports were 350,000 tons, soybeans were 1.96 million tons, and rapeseed was 390,000 tons, all lower than last year [8]. - **Russian Sunflower Oil Tax**: Russia will resume export tariffs on sunflower oil and its by - products from September [8]. 3. Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity is 0, and soybean oil trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral stance [9].
银河期货沥青日报-20250820
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 13:36
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - Long - term and medium - term oil prices are bearish. Short - term, Brent is expected to stay in the range of $65 - $67. - The fundamentals of asphalt are weak. In August, supply increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, while the improvement in demand was limited. The de - stocking speed of the industry chain slowed down, and the inventory level was lower than the same period last year. - The supply and demand of asphalt lack clear drivers. The price will fluctuate weakly, with lower volatility than that of crude oil. The BU main contract is expected to trade between 3450 - 3550 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Related Data - **Futures Prices and Positions**: On August 20, 2025, the price of BU2510 (main contract) rose by 1 yuan to 3454 yuan/ton, with a 0.03% increase. The main contract's position decreased by 0.2 million lots to 21.8 million lots, a 1.01% decline, while trading volume increased by 0.4 million lots to 14.6 million lots, a 2.85% increase. - **Basis and Spread**: The BU11 - 12 spread decreased by 2 yuan to 50 yuan/ton, a 3.85% decline, and the BU10 - 11 spread increased by 6 yuan to 50 yuan/ton, a 13.64% increase. The basis of Shandong - main contract, East China - main contract, and South China - main contract all increased. - **Industrial Chain Spot Prices**: The low - end prices in Shandong and East China and the market price in South China remained unchanged. The prices of Shandong gasoline and diesel decreased, while the price of Shandong petroleum coke remained stable. - **Spread and Profit**: Asphalt refinery profit decreased by 13.97 yuan to - 13.51 yuan, a 2999.02% decline. The comprehensive profit of refined oil decreased by 26.92 yuan to 469.84 yuan, a 5.42% decline [2]. 3.2 Market Research and Judgment - **Market Overview** - National average asphalt price on August 20 was 3816 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. - In North China, rainfall limited terminal construction, and some traders cut prices. - In East China, the market preferred low - priced resources, and the high - end prices of some refineries were weakening. - In South China, demand was low, and some refineries might cut prices. - In Shandong, the mainstream transaction price was stable at 3670 - 3850 yuan/ton, and the spot price of mainstream brands was 3540 - 3680 yuan/ton. The price of some long - term locked contracts might suppress the spot market. - In the Yangtze River Delta, the mainstream transaction price of heavy - traffic asphalt was stable at 3750 - 3800 yuan/ton. Supply might increase, but prices would likely remain stable. - In South China, the mainstream transaction price was stable at 3480 - 3530 yuan/ton. Some refineries might cut prices, and short - term demand was hard to improve significantly due to rainfall [5][6]. - **Market Outlook** - Oil prices are bearish in the medium and long term. Short - term, Brent is expected to be in the $65 - $67 range. - The fundamentals of asphalt are weak. Supply increased in August, while demand improvement was limited. The de - stocking speed slowed down, and inventory was lower than the same period last year. - The supply and demand of asphalt lack clear drivers. The price will fluctuate weakly, with lower volatility than that of crude oil. The BU main contract is expected to trade between 3450 - 3550 yuan/ton [7]. 3.3 Related Attachments The report provides six figures, including the closing price and position of the BU main contract, and the market prices of asphalt, gasoline, and diesel in East China and Shandong [9].
期货收评:碳酸锂涨4%,棕榈油涨2%,多晶硅、尿素、菜粕涨超1%,焦煤跌3%,纯碱、焦炭、甲醇、氧化铝跌1%
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-18 07:55
Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain strong in the short term, with fluctuations likely due to supply and demand dynamics [2] - Weekly supply of lithium carbonate has slightly increased, with spodumene supply rising while mica supply has decreased [2] - The production of positive electrodes remains robust, with weekly retail sales increasing and penetration rates reaching approximately 58% [2] Group 2 - The domestic futures market saw significant price movements, with lithium carbonate rising over 4% and other commodities like palm oil and various chemicals also experiencing gains [3] - Conversely, coal futures dropped nearly 3%, and other commodities such as eggs and various chemicals saw declines exceeding 1% [3]
LPG:成本支撑偏弱
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 01:22
Group 1: Report Overview - The report focuses on LPG and propylene markets, with the date of August 6, 2025 [1] - The cost support for LPG is weak, and the supply - demand pattern of propylene is loose, showing short - term weak and volatile trends [1] Group 2: Futures Price, Position, and Spread Futures Price - PG2509 closed at 3,845 yesterday with a - 1.31% daily increase, and 3,829 at night with a - 0.42% increase; PG2510 closed at 4,281 yesterday with a - 0.65% daily increase, and 4,308 at night with a 0.63% increase; PL2601 closed at 6,512 yesterday with a 0.48% daily increase, and 6,476 at night with a - 0.55% increase; PL2602 closed at 6,571 yesterday with a 0.52% daily increase, and 6,542 at night with a - 0.44% increase [2] Position and Transaction Volume - For PG2509, the yesterday's trading volume was 94,257 (an increase of 1,692), and the night - trading position was 101,941 (an increase of 5,819); for PG2510, the yesterday's trading volume was 33,586 (an increase of 1,922), and the night - trading position was 78,899 (an increase of 8,017); for PL2601, the yesterday's trading volume was 1,971 (a decrease of 166), and the night - trading position was 4,461 (a decrease of 25); for PL2602, the yesterday's trading volume was 104 (a decrease of 91), and the night - trading position was 968 (a decrease of 49) [2] Spread - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG09 contract was 505 yesterday (454 the day before); the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG09 contract was 495 yesterday (484 the day before); the spread between Shandong propylene and PL01 contract was - 337 yesterday (- 321 the day before); the spread between East China propylene and PL01 contract was - 212 yesterday (- 156 the day before); the spread between South China propylene and PL01 contract was - 287 yesterday (- 156 the day before) [2] Group 3: Industry Chain Data - This week, the PDH operating rate was 72.6% (73.1% last week), the MTBE operating rate was 67.8% (69.0% last week), and the alkylation operating rate was 49.7% (46.2% last week) [2] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is also 0. The range of trend intensity is [- 2,2], with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [10] Group 5: Market Information Saudi CP Expectations - On August 4, 2025, the September Saudi CP expectation for propane was 516 dollars/ton, down 10 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; for butane, it was 486 dollars/ton, down 10 dollars/ton. The October Saudi CP expectation for propane was 532 dollars/ton, down 9 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; for butane, it was 502 dollars/ton, down 9 dollars/ton [11] Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans - Multiple companies have PDH device maintenance plans, such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. starting maintenance on May 12, 2023, with the end time to be determined [12] Domestic LPG Factory Device Maintenance Plans - Many production enterprises have device maintenance plans, including Shandong's Shengli Heavy Oil with a 60 - day whole - plant maintenance from June 16, 2025, to mid - August 2025 [12]
软商品日报-20250804
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 10:47
Group 1: Sugar Core View - Global sugar supply is expected to be loose due to a 15.07% year-on-year increase in Brazil's sugar production to 340,600 tons in the first half of July and an 18% expected increase in India's new season production to 34.9 million tons. In the domestic market, the Nanning spot price has a premium, but import pressure persists, and the peak consumption season provides limited support [3]. Specific Data - Sugar futures closing prices on August 4, 2025: SR01 at 5636 with a daily increase of 0.28% and a weekly decrease of 1.16%; SR03 at 5609 with a daily increase of 0.25% and a weekly decrease of 1.06%; SR05 at 5574 with a daily increase of 0.07% and a weekly decrease of 1.17%; SR07 at 5571 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 1.1%; SR09 at 5718 with a daily decrease of 0.26% and a weekly decrease of 2.17%; SR11 at 5657 with a daily increase of 0.07% and a weekly decrease of 1.63%; SB at 16.2 with a daily decrease of 0.92% and a weekly decrease of 1.40%; W at 465 with a daily decrease of 0.53% and a weekly decrease of 1.96% [4]. - Sugar basis data on August 1, 2025: Nanning - SR01 with a basis of 410, a daily increase of 35, and a weekly increase of 66; Nanning - SR03 with a basis of 435, a daily increase of 35, and a weekly increase of 57; Nanning - SR05 with a basis of 460, a daily increase of 41, and a weekly increase of 53; Nanning - SR07 with a basis of 459, a daily increase of 38, and a weekly increase of 42; Nanning - SR09 with a basis of 297, a daily increase of 60, and a weekly increase of 123; Nanning - SR11 with a basis of 377, a daily increase of 32, and a weekly increase of 99 [9]. - Sugar import price data on August 4, 2025: Brazilian import quota - within price at 4466 with a daily decrease of 14 and a weekly decrease of 46; out - of - quota price at 5673 with a daily decrease of 18 and a weekly decrease of 61; Thai import quota - within price at 4542 with a daily decrease of 14 and a weekly decrease of 22; out - of - quota price at 5772 with a daily decrease of 18 and a weekly decrease of 28 [12]. Group 2: Cotton Core View - The current decline in cotton prices is conducive to the outflow of high - premium warehouse receipts. However, the expectation of tight domestic cotton supply at the end of the year remains unchanged, which may still strongly support cotton prices. In the short term, cotton prices may gradually enter a volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to the implementation of domestic import quota policies, the de - stocking speed of cotton in the off - season, and the adjustment of the Sino - US trade agreement [14]. Specific Data - Cotton and cotton yarn futures closing prices on August 4, 2025: Cotton 01 at 13805 with an increase of 20 (0.15%); Cotton 05 at 13760 with an increase of 30 (0.22%); Cotton 09 at 13675 with an increase of 90 (0.66%); Cotton yarn 01 at 19705 with an increase of 25 (0.13%); Cotton yarn 05 at 0 with a decrease of 19960 (- 100%); Cotton yarn 09 at 19825 with an increase of 85 (0.43%) [15]. - Cotton and cotton yarn price spreads: Cotton basis at 1675 with no change; Cotton 01 - 05 at 55 with no change; Cotton 05 - 09 at 145 with no change; Cotton 09 - 01 at - 200 with no change; Cotton - yarn spread at 6145 with no change; Domestic - foreign cotton spread at 1709 with a decrease of 35; Domestic - foreign yarn spread at - 536 with an increase of 14 [16]. Group 3: Red Dates Core View - Recently, the weather in the production areas has changed rapidly, and there are still differences in the market's view of the new - season production. Red date prices may fluctuate temporarily. Attention should be paid to the growth of grey dates. With sufficient supply of old dates and no major problems in the future weather in the production areas, red date prices will still face pressure [20]. Group 4: Apples Core View - Under the impact of seasonal fruits, the sales speed is limited. In Shandong, the number of packaged apples is limited due to the busy farming season. In Shaanxi, the apple supply is concentrated in northern Shaanxi, and the secondary production areas are almost cleared. For new - season apples, the opening prices of Qinyang apples are the same as last year, but the prices have recently declined to varying degrees [24]. Specific Data - Apple futures closing prices on August 4, 2025: AP01 at 7744 with a daily increase of 0.77% and a weekly decrease of 1.91%; AP03 at 7725 with a daily increase of 0.66% and a weekly decrease of 1.1%; AP04 at 7779 with a daily increase of 0.93% and a weekly decrease of 1.03%; AP05 at 7838 with a daily increase of 0.49% and a weekly decrease of 0.87%; AP10 at 7826 with a daily increase of 0.88% and a weekly decrease of 2.81%; AP11 at 7642 with a daily increase of 0.88% and a weekly decrease of 1.90%; AP12 at 7704 with a daily increase of 0.8% and a weekly decrease of 1.42% [25]. - Apple spot prices on August 4, 2025: Qixia first - and second - grade 80 at 3.8 with no daily or weekly change; Luochuan semi - commercial 70 at 4.5 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 6%; Jingning paper - bagged 75 at 5.6 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 6.67%; Yiyuan paper - bagged 70 at 2.3 with no daily or weekly change; Wanrong paper - plus - film 75 at 2.8 with no daily or weekly change [25].