Report Industry Investment Ratings - Douyi: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Doupo: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Douyou: ★★★, suggesting a clearer upward - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Palm oil: ★★★, suggesting a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Caipo: ★☆☆, suggesting a bearish bias, with a driving force for price decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Caiyou: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias, with a driving force for price decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Corn: ★★★, suggesting a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Live pigs: ★☆☆, suggesting a bearish bias, with a driving force for price decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆, suggesting a bearish bias, with a driving force for price decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] Core Views - The overall performance of agricultural products in the market shows different trends, with some products affected by supply - demand relationships, policies, weather, and other factors [2][3][4] - Different agricultural products have different price trends, and investment strategies should be adjusted according to the specific situation of each product [3][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Douyi - The main contract of Douyi shows a reduction in positions and a price decline. The spot price of domestic soybeans is stable and firm. The price of US soybeans is affected by South American weather and US soybean exports, and is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium - term. Short - term attention should be paid to the policy and spot performance of domestic soybeans [2] Soybeans & Doupo - The price of Dalian Doupo futures fluctuates weakly. Attention should be paid to the December USDA global agricultural product supply - demand report. The 05 contract has not broken through the upper edge of the box. Whether it can break through upward in the medium - term depends on US soybean exports and the impact of the La Nina weather in South America. The strategy is to observe whether it can break through upward and look for long - entry opportunities later [3] Douyou & Palm oil - The market expects that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia in November is still increasing, with high inventory pressure. If the supply - side production reduction continues, the signal of a phased price bottom will be prominent, but the rebound strength is limited. The medium - term of Douyou also needs to pay attention to policy changes. The domestic soybean crushing profit is improving. The overall view of soybean and palm oil is range - bound, and short - term attention should be paid to the fundamentals of the oil market [4] Caipo & Caiyou - The Caisi market continues its weak trend, and the external rapeseed price is under pressure. The production of Canadian rapeseed in 2025 is estimated to be higher than expected, and the supply of the Caisi market has temporarily eased after Australian rapeseed arrives at the port. The domestic demand for Caisi is still weak, and the futures price of Caisi will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [6] Corn - The Dalian corn futures C2601 contract rose 0.97% after rising and then falling, but the subsequent contracts lack upward momentum. The supply - demand mismatch in the corn market still exists. Future attention should be paid to the sales progress of new corn in the Northeast and the auction of overdue wheat. The 01 contract should be observed first, and the 03 and 05 contracts should wait for a pullback [7] Live pigs - Live pig futures are running weakly, and the 03 contract has hit a new low. The inventory of breeding sows in November continued to decline slightly month - on - month. The southern curing will gradually start, and the supply side has the pressure of fattening pigs for secondary fattening to be sold. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig price is likely to form a second bottom in the first half of next year [8] Eggs - Egg futures are slightly weak, and the spot price in most parts of the country has declined. The current supply pressure is high, and the forward - looking inventory decline expectation has ended. The 01 contract has a premium over the spot, and a short - selling strategy is recommended for the near - term contract [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Soybean Meal, Eggs [1] - **Bearish**: None - **Neutral**: Soybean, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn, Live Pigs [1] Core Views - The overall outlook for agricultural products shows a mixed trend, with different factors influencing each commodity. The market is mainly affected by factors such as South American weather, exports, domestic supply and demand, and policies [2][3][4]. Summary by Commodity Soybean - The main contract of soybeans shows a reduction in positions and a decline in price. The domestic soybean spot price is stable and firm, while the US soybeans are expected to be volatile and bullish due to South American weather and export factors. Short - term attention should be paid to domestic policies and the spot market [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - Dalian soybean futures prices are weakly volatile. South American new - season Brazilian soybean sowing progress is normal, while Argentine soybean planting is slow due to weather. Domestic soybean supply is sufficient, but the profit of oil mill crushing is poor. Soybean meal inventory has returned to a high level, suppressing prices. Whether the 05 contract can break through the upper limit depends on US soybean exports and South American weather [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Palm oil's rebound is restricted, and the market is in the process of position transfer. The market expects Malaysia's palm oil inventory to increase in November. If supply - side production cuts continue, the price may bottom out, but the rebound is limited by high inventory. For soybean oil, focus on policy changes, and the domestic soybean crushing profit is improving. Overall, the prices of soybean and palm oil are expected to fluctuate within a range [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Most rapeseed - related futures contracts declined, with only the near - month rapeseed meal contract being resistant to decline due to tight delivery resources. Rapeseed oil led the decline in the oil sector. Canadian rapeseed exports are weak, and its price is under pressure. The supply of rapeseed is expected to be more relaxed in the medium - term, and the short - term price of rapeseed - related products is under pressure but the decline space is limited [6]. Corn - Corn spot prices in the north and at northern ports remain firm, and futures are strong. Northeast new - grain supply is lower than expected, and there are concerns about supply and transportation. The 01 contract should be observed, while the 03 and 05 contracts should wait for a pull - back [7]. Live Pigs - Live pig futures and spot prices are weak, and the average spot slaughter price continues to decline. With the approaching of the winter solstice, southern curing will start, but there is also an exit pressure from second - fattened pigs. Historically, the bottom of the pig cycle often shows a double - bottom pattern, and it is expected that pig prices may form a second bottom in the first half of next year [8]. Eggs - The near - month January contract of eggs hit a new low, and the spot price is stable but weak. The long - position trend of the far - month contract is driven by the expectation of declining inventory, but the current valuation is high, and the spread between near - and far - month contracts is too large. The long - position trend is expected to end, and the near - month contract is bearish [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Beans 1**: ☆☆☆, indicating a more distinct long - trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Soybean Meal**: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a drive for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Soybean Oil**: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias, with a drive for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Palm Oil**: ★☆☆, meaning a bullish bias, with a drive for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Rapeseed Meal**: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias, with a drive for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: ★☆☆, denoting a bullish bias, with a drive for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Corn**: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias, with a drive for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Live Pigs**: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a drive for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Eggs**: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias, with a drive for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of various agricultural products show different trends, mainly affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policies. Most products are expected to fluctuate within a range, and investors are advised to pay attention to relevant information and market changes [2][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Beans 1 - Domestic soybeans are in short - term sideways consolidation, with stable spot prices and increasing domestic warehouse receipts. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans has declined from a high level. The supply of high - protein domestic soybeans is tight, bringing a relatively strong expectation to the overall soybean market. US soybeans are mainly affected by South American weather and US soybean exports, and are expected to fluctuate strongly. Short - term attention should be paid to the performance of the domestic soybean spot market and policy guidance [2] 3.2 Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - US soybeans are affected by South American weather and exports, and are expected to fluctuate strongly. The domestic soybean near - term shipping schedule crushing gross profit has deteriorated again, supporting soybean oil. The domestic soybean - palm oil price difference has adjusted from a high level. Malaysian palm oil had a slight production cut in November, but demand was weak, and it is expected to accumulate inventory. Due to flood problems in Southeast Asian producing areas, the supply side was disturbed, and prices stopped falling and rebounded. Overall, it is expected that soybean and palm oil will maintain range fluctuations [3] 3.3 Soybeans & Soybean Meal - Today's soybean futures opened high and closed low, with prices fluctuating weakly. Brazil's soybean planting rate is 78% with normal progress, while Argentina's is slow due to less rainfall. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the crushing volume has increased. The soybean meal inventory has rebounded to a high level, suppressing prices. The M2605 contract has risen to the upper edge of the shock platform, and the follow - up trend depends on US soybean exports and the impact of South American weather [5] 3.4 Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Today, the near - month main contract of rapeseed meal continued to decline with position reduction, and the main contract of rapeseed oil slightly declined. The arrival of Australian rapeseed in China eased the market's concern about the tight supply of rapeseed. Rapeseed meal demand is weak, and rapeseed oil is mainly in the process of de - stocking. The supply of rapeseed oil depends on Russian crushing and exports, and the demand benefits from the seasonal peak in the fourth quarter. Overall, the rapeseed series lacks trend - driving factors in the short term and is expected to fluctuate within a range [6] 3.5 Corn - The spot price of corn in the northern port remains firm, and Northeast farmers are reluctant to sell, resulting in lower - than - expected new grain supply. The quality of North China corn is poor, and the market favors high - quality Northeast grain, causing concerns about supply and transportation. The downstream corn inventory is generally very low, but the willingness to replenish inventory has increased. The new grain is still in the peak release period. In the short term, the Dalian corn futures 01 contract fluctuates at a high level, and the 03 and 05 contracts are waiting for a correction. In the medium term, the rebound range is limited, and a sharp rise in corn prices next year is not optimistic [7] 3.6 Live Pigs - The spot and futures prices of live pigs continue to weaken. With less than a month until the Winter Solstice, southern bacon - curing will gradually start, but there is also pressure on the supply side from the second - fattening of large hogs. The industry's average weight is still high, and there is a de - stocking process in the later stage. In the long - term, the bottom of the pig cycle often shows a "double - bottom" feature, and it is expected that pig prices may have a second bottom - probing in the first half of next year [8] 3.7 Eggs - The near - and far - month contracts of eggs show a differentiated trend, with a total increase of over 30,000 lots in positions. The far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of a decline in the laying - hen inventory in the medium - and long - term and have risen sharply. The near - month contracts are difficult to continue rising due to the premium of futures over spot prices and are trading the logic of price convergence. The current price difference between near - and far - month contracts is too large, and it is not recommended to chase the rise. Attention should be paid to the performance of the spot market for near - month contracts [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Beans (domestic): ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Corn: ★☆☆ [1] - Live Pigs: ☆☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ☆☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic soybean market is expected to be bullish in the short - term, while the US soybean market will likely oscillate with an upward bias, influenced by South American weather and export factors [2][3] - The soybean meal supply in the domestic market is ample, which exerts downward pressure on prices. The 05 contract's upward breakthrough depends on US soybean exports and potential South American production cuts [3] - The soybean and palm oil markets are expected to fluctuate within a range. Although there are some positive supply - side signals, high inventory levels may limit price rebounds [3] - The rapeseed market lacks trend - driving factors and is expected to trade in a range in the short term [5] - Corn futures are expected to remain volatile at high levels, with concerns about supply and transportation in the Northeast [6] - Live pig prices may form a double - bottom pattern, with a high probability of a second trough in the first half of next year [7] - The egg futures market shows a mixed performance, with the far - month contracts not suitable for chasing highs and the near - month contracts likely to be weak [8] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs [Soybean] - Domestic soybeans are in a sideways and slightly bullish trend, with stable and firm spot prices. The supply of high - protein domestic soybeans is tight, leading to optimistic market expectations [2] - US soybeans are influenced by South American weather and export factors. South American weather is dry in parts before mid - December, and overall, US soybeans are expected to be slightly bullish [2][3] [Soybean & Soybean Meal] - In the new South American season, Brazil's soybean sowing progress is normal, while Argentina's is slow due to weather. Brazil's 2025/26 soybean output is estimated to be 1.772 billion tons, a 0.9% reduction from the November forecast [3] - The domestic soybean supply is abundant, and the crushing volume has increased. The soybean meal inventory has rebounded to a high level, maintaining a loose supply situation. The expected inventory at the end of December is around 900,000 tons [3] - The upward breakthrough of the 05 contract depends on US soybean exports and potential South American production cuts. It is advisable to observe for fluctuations before looking for long - entry opportunities [3] [Soybean Oil & Palm Oil] - Malaysian palm oil had a slight production cut in November, but demand was weak, resulting in inventory accumulation. Indonesia lowered its December export reference price and tax, which is beneficial for exports [3] - If the supply - side production cuts are sustained, it may signal a bottoming - out of prices. However, high overseas inventories may limit price rebounds [3] - US soybeans are expected to be slightly bullish, which will support soybean oil prices. The soybean and palm oil markets are expected to fluctuate within a range [3] [Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil] - The rapeseed market is in a weak and sideways trend due to a lack of trading catalysts. The arrival of Australian rapeseeds has eased supply concerns [5] - Rapeseed meal demand is weak as the aquaculture feed season is off - peak, and it is not competitive in terms of unit - protein price compared to soybean meal [5] - Rapeseed oil is mainly in a de - stocking phase. Supply depends on Australian rapeseed crushing and Russian rapeseed oil arrivals, while demand benefits from the seasonal peak in the fourth quarter [5] [Corn] - Corn futures are volatile at high levels, driven by strong spot prices. The supply of new grain in the north is lower than expected, and there are concerns about supply and transportation in the Northeast [6] - The 01 contract of Dalian corn futures is expected to be volatile at high levels, and it is advisable to wait and see. The 03 and 05 contracts should wait for pull - backs [6] [Live Pigs] - Live pig futures have narrow fluctuations, and spot prices are slightly lower. Southern curing will start soon, but there is also pressure from the出栏 of second - fattened pigs [7] - Historically, the pig cycle bottom often shows a double - bottom pattern. The low price in October was likely the first bottom, and there is a high probability of a second trough in the first half of next year [7] [Eggs] - Egg futures showed a sharp rise followed by a decline, with a reduction of over 10,000 lots in positions. The far - month contracts are not suitable for chasing highs due to high premiums [8] - The near - month contracts are at a premium to the spot, and the spot prices are slightly weak today. The near - month contracts may be weak [8]

Summary of Conference Call on Vietnam Pig Cycle and Industry Integration Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the pig farming industry in Vietnam, highlighting its similarities and differences with China's pig farming sector [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - **Market Demand and Supply Dynamics**: Vietnam is experiencing a growth in market demand, with a shorter down cycle compared to China, which is facing a stable or declining market [1][2]. - **Drivers of Pig Cycle Reversal**: The reversal of the pig cycle in Vietnam is driven by multiple factors including losses, disease outbreaks, and policy impacts. Currently, the industry is in a recovery phase, utilizing vaccines to control diseases [1][3][4]. - **Industry Structure**: The Vietnamese pig farming industry is dominated by overseas investment enterprises, such as Charoen Pokphand Group, which have better cost control and financial strength compared to family farms. This leads to a faster exit of small and medium-sized producers from the market [1][5]. - **Comparison with China**: China's pig farming structure is more complex, with strong competition between leading enterprises and smallholders. However, mid-tier companies face significant challenges and cost control pressures [1][5]. - **Future Prospects for Major Players**: Companies like Muyuan, Wens, Dekang, and Shennong are highlighted as key players to watch, as they possess strong risk resilience and are expected to benefit from the cycle reversal [1][6][7]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Opportunities**: Muyuan has received approval for a Hong Kong IPO, laying a foundation for its overseas expansion, particularly in Vietnam. Collaborating with multinational companies like Charoen Pokphand will help Muyuan quickly adapt to the Vietnamese market [1][6]. - **Historical Context of Pig Cycles**: Vietnam has experienced three rounds of pig cycle reversals since 2007, each driven by unique factors such as disease impacts and market dynamics [3][4]. - **Resource Dependency**: Both Vietnam and China rely heavily on imported feed materials, with Vietnam importing approximately 40 million tons of rice and 4 million tons of corn annually [2]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the Vietnamese pig farming industry, its dynamics, and the implications for major players in the market.

期货研究报告 | 农产品组 行业研究报告 整体来看，2025 年生猪市场整体呈震荡下行趋势，核心因素在于产能端能繁母猪存栏量保持稳定，进而使得全年价格波动幅度相对 温和。尽管能繁母猪存栏仍处于绿色合理区间，但行业生产效能的持续提升，叠加政策导向下出栏节奏的调整，共同推动猪价逐步 回落，行业整体陷入亏损状态...... 产能逐步去化，猪周期有望迎来拐点 农产品组行业研究报告 本期分析研究员 邓绍瑞 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 白旭宇 从业资格号：F03114139 投资咨询号：Z0023055 薛钧元 从业资格号：F03114096 投资咨询号：Z0023045 华泰期货研究院农产品研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 白旭宇 期货研究报告 | 养殖年报 2025-11-30 产能逐步去化，猪周期有望迎来拐点 研究院 农产品组 研究员 邓绍瑞 010-64405663 dengshaorui@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 lixin@htfc.com 从业资 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the bond market strategy for 2026, characterized by a "slow bear" and "divergence" in "relative value" [1] - The real estate industry is expected to bottom out in Q2 2026, with sales, inventory, and new construction growth rates having reached their lowest points [1][6] Core Insights and Arguments - The projected upper limit for interest rates in 2026 is 2.25%, driven primarily by nominal GDP recovery, which is expected to exceed 5% [1][3] - The current policy framework emphasizes stability to address uncertainties and structural challenges, avoiding large-scale stimulus while supporting emerging industries [1][7] - The CPI is forecasted to center around 0.8% next year, while PPI is expected to recover to above -1%, influenced by monetary activation and the bottoming out of real estate investment [1][8] - The market's focus on the lower limit of interest rates is determined by the cost of bank liabilities, which is currently stable at around 1.6% [1][9] Important but Overlooked Content - The phenomenon of monetary activation is reflected in the M1-M2 differential, which has decreased from over 8% to 1%-2% recently, indicating a shift from time deposits to demand deposits [4][5] - The real estate sector is currently experiencing negative growth across all metrics, but improvements are expected as investment growth bottoms out [6] - The sales regulations are aimed at protecting investors and promoting long-term holding, which has led to behavioral changes in the market [21][22] - Non-bank institutions are facing challenges due to new sales regulations and valuation adjustments, leading to potential liquidity opportunities [14] - The macro trading strategy for 2026 will focus on the expected recovery of fundamentals and the panic caused by new redemption fee regulations [15] Market Dynamics - The bond market in 2026 will be characterized by "trading," with structural gaming opportunities arising from the rotation between interest rates and credit [20] - The current monetary policy is expected to have limited room for rate cuts, with only 1-2 potential cuts anticipated [11] - The anticipated rise in funding prices for 2026 is expected to be around 1.5%, slightly higher than the current levels [12] Conclusion - The bond market strategy for 2026 will require a focus on trading and structural opportunities, with an emphasis on liquidity and the impact of regulatory changes on market behavior [20][21]

（原标题：这家日本品牌，吃到了中国的"羽毛球红利"） 作者 | 谢芸子 编辑 | 张帆 羽毛球的价格暴涨已成为"不可逆"的事实。 今年7月，全球第一的羽毛球品牌尤尼克斯（YONEX）再度发布调价通知，其中的主流球款价格涨幅皆 在14%—31%。主力产品"AS-05EX羽毛球"，更是从2024年4月的210元/打（12个）上涨到现如今的350 元/打。 这已是尤尼克斯近两年来的第三次涨价。在此前多家媒体的报道中，李宁、威克多、亚狮龙等主流羽毛 球品牌，也出现了不同幅度的价格上涨。 一般情况下，一个羽毛球的"生命周期"至多在30分钟。羽毛球的连年涨价，也让绝大多数羽毛球爱好者 调侃，"打球就像朝天上撒钱""月入两万也打不起羽毛球"。 36氪根据公开资料整理 然而，就在中国中产因此"叫苦连天"之时，尤尼克斯却接连创下营收新高。 不久前，尤尼克斯发布了2026财年半年报。截至2025年9月30日的6个月内，尤尼克斯的净销售额同比增 长18.8%至795.32亿日元（约35.95亿元人民币，下同）。 营业利润方面，报告期内，尤尼克斯同比增长15%至88.47亿日元（约4亿元），归母净利润同比增长 17.4%至63.71 ...

本报讯 （记者王宁）近日，随着大连商品交易所"农民收入保障计划"生猪"保险+期货"项目推介会圆满 落幕，由国投期货联合民生银行北京分行、中国太平洋产险河南分公司共同推动的金融助农"滑县模 式"第一期项目已正式完结。该项目在生猪价格深度回调的行业困境中，实现总赔付84.04万元，赔付率 达373.61%，为当地养殖产业筑起一道坚实的风险屏障。 国投期货"保险+期货"业务负责人曹亚表示，该项目既是期货服务实体经济的生动注脚，更是金融赋能 乡村振兴的创新实践。未来国投期货将持续深化与政府、交易所及金融机构的战略合作，以专业能力为 产业高质量发展注入金融动能。 "'保险+期货'不是终点，而是新征程的起点。"滑县人民政府副县长徐继峰表示，县政府牵头积极探 索，联合金融机构借助"保险+期货"风险管理新模式，持续完善补贴机制，优化财政资金使用效率，让 更多中小养殖户享受到政策红利。希望大商所、期货公司、保险公司聚焦生猪产业所需、聚焦群众所 盼，科学指导项目稳步有序推进，切实为滑县生猪养殖插上金融的翅膀。 为此，国投期货联合民生银行北京分行启动专项帮扶，依托"保险+期货"这一成熟金融工具，为滑县量 身定制风险管理方案。国投期 ...

一、产业困局：猪价波动下的养殖之忧 作为全国生猪调出大县之一，生猪养殖是滑县当地农民重要的增收来源。然而，生猪价格频繁而剧烈的 周期性波动，始终是广大养殖户面临的现实挑战。说到当下的困境，滑县老店镇养殖户张凤椅算了一笔 账："俺自己养，成本合到每斤六块五左右。要是再算上雇人、租场，就得奔七块钱去了。可现在卖价 才六块，真是养得多、赔得狠。"这番朴实的话语，道出了2025年秋许多中小养殖户共同的心声——猪 价持续探底，"多养多亏"成为摆在面前的残酷现实。 项目推介会现场 养殖户代表获得保险理赔 二、破局之道：四方协同织就风险保障网 面对行业危局，国投期货主动作为，联合民生银行北京分行启动专项帮扶，依托"保险+期货"这一成熟 金融工具，为滑县量身定制风险管理方案。国投期货发挥专业优势，精准把控市场波动；民生银行强化 资金支持，畅通金融服务血脉，合力破解"猪周期"下的收益保障难题。 项目推进中，多方协同凝聚强大合力：大连商品交易所提供25%保费补贴，有效降低参保门槛；滑县政 府统筹配套财政支持，并通过老店镇、焦虎镇政府开展多轮宣讲，确保政策精准触达。最终，养殖户自 付保费比例仅11%，真正实现"小投入撬动大保障"的 ...