Core Insights - Indonesia is experiencing a wave of protests, but the stock market is at a near five-year high, indicating underlying economic resilience despite short-term challenges such as currency depreciation and weak consumer demand [1][4]. Economic Challenges - The Indonesian rupiah has depreciated by 0.17% in the past month and 6.42% over the past year, with the current exchange rate at 16,414.5 IDR per USD [2]. - Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a slight decrease of 0.08% month-on-month, with an annual inflation rate of 2.31%, reflecting weakened consumer purchasing power [2]. - Domestic travel during the Ramadan period saw a decrease of approximately 47 million people compared to 2024, indicating reduced consumer spending [2]. Trade Performance - Indonesia's imports fell by 5.86% year-on-year in July, marking the largest decline since May 2024, while the country maintained a trade surplus of $4.17 billion for 63 consecutive months, driven by coal, palm oil, and steel exports [3]. - The trade outlook may face uncertainties due to potential impacts from the US-Indonesia tariff agreement and declining coal prices [3]. Stock Market Dynamics - The Jakarta Composite Index closed at 7,885.86 points on September 3, reflecting a 20.96% increase over the past six months, indicating strong market performance despite recent protests [4]. - Economic fundamentals, proactive monetary policy, and valuation recovery are driving the stock market's upward trend [4]. - The stock market is considered undervalued based on the original Buffett indicator, with an expected annual return of +10.9% over the next eight years [5]. Long-term Outlook - Indonesia's large market size and significant role in global commodity trade enhance its resilience against external risks, with food self-sufficiency being a highlight of the economy this year [6]. - The manufacturing sector is expected to benefit from ongoing upgrades, supported by demographic advantages and deepening cooperation with major economies like China [5][6].

Group 1: Deep Dive on Service Industry Opening - The State Council emphasizes the need to promote institutional opening of service trade and leverage service imports to boost domestic service industry development [7] Group 2: Economic Insights from Jackson Hole - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference highlighted a slowdown in economic growth, with real GDP growth at 1.2% in the first half of 2025, half of the 2024 rate, primarily due to reduced consumer spending [10][11] - The labor market shows signs of risk, with average monthly job additions dropping to 35,000 over the past three months, down from 168,000 in 2024 [11] - Inflation remains a concern, with July PCE at 2.6% year-on-year and core PCE at 2.9%, indicating a complex inflationary environment influenced by tariffs [11] Group 3: Social Security Reform - The rapid demographic changes in China necessitate improvements and reforms in the social security system, which may become a key focus during the 14th Five-Year Plan [14] Group 4: Economic Resilience - Economic growth dynamics may shift in the second half of the year, with potential vulnerabilities in certain sectors while others show resilience [17] - Manufacturing sector faces challenges, while the service sector demonstrates stronger demand resilience [25] Group 5: High-Frequency Tracking - Industrial production is showing signs of recovery, with infrastructure projects continuing to improve and port freight volumes remaining robust [21] - Profit growth in industrial enterprises is recovering, but this is largely attributed to low base effects, with ongoing cost pressures [19][21]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic landscape, focusing on service industry openness, labor market conditions, inflation trends, and social security reforms, highlighting potential opportunities and challenges in these areas [7][10][14][27]. Group 1: Deep Dive on Service Industry - The State Council emphasizes the need to promote service trade and leverage service imports to boost local service industry development, indicating a shift towards service industry openness as a new growth area [7]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Labor Market - Economic growth is slowing, with a real GDP growth rate of 1.2% in the first half of 2025, significantly lower than the previous year's figures, primarily due to reduced consumer spending [11]. - The labor market shows signs of risk, with average monthly job additions dropping to 35,000 in the last three months, down from 168,000 in 2024, indicating a weakening job market [11]. - The unemployment rate's stability is threatened by a significant slowdown in labor force growth and participation rates, suggesting an increase in job loss risks [11]. Group 3: Inflation Trends - Inflation remains a concern, with July's PCE showing a year-on-year increase of 2.6% and core PCE at 2.9%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [11]. - The impact of tariffs on inflation is becoming evident, with expectations of continued accumulation in the coming months, although the timing and magnitude of these effects remain uncertain [11]. Group 4: Social Security Reform - The article highlights the need for social security system improvements and reforms, particularly in light of rapid demographic changes, suggesting that this will be a key focus during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [14]. Group 5: Economic Resilience - The second half of 2025 may see a "strong-weak switch" in economic growth dynamics, with certain sectors showing resilience while others face challenges, particularly in manufacturing and service industries [18][27]. - Export performance may exceed expectations, driven not by opportunistic exports but by improvements in external demand and market share [27].

Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production has shown signs of recovery, with the blast furnace operating rate increasing by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year to 5.9% [2][6] - Midstream production shows a mixed outlook, with PTA and automotive production performing poorly, down 6.6% and 5.9% year-on-year respectively, while soda ash and polyester filament production improved, up 0.1% to 5.8% and 0.9% to 3.1% respectively [2][16] - Cement production continues to improve, with the national grinding operating rate down 1.5 percentage points year-on-year to -5.6%, and cement shipment rates slightly up by 0.8% to -2.9% [28][32] Group 2: Demand Tracking - Daily average transaction area of new homes remains weak, up 2.9 percentage points year-on-year to -6.3%, with first-tier cities showing some recovery [52] - Port cargo throughput related to exports has significantly increased, with cargo throughput and container throughput up 7.1% to 9.7% and 6.1% to 14.8% year-on-year respectively [61][68] - The national migration scale index has decreased by 5.2 percentage points year-on-year to 16.6%, but domestic flight operations have increased by 1.0% to 2.7% [73] Group 3: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are showing divergence, with pork and fruit prices down 0.1% and 0.8% respectively, while egg and vegetable prices increased by 1.7% and 2.5% [3][101] - The industrial product price index has generally declined, with the Nanhua industrial product price index down 1.4% [113] - The energy and chemical price index decreased by 0.9%, and the metal price index fell by 1.7% [113][120]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to maintain its current interest rate level, with discussions on potential rate cuts possibly resuming in the fall if signs of economic slowdown in Europe emerge [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that the bank is in an "ideal state" after keeping the benchmark interest rate at 2.00%, marking the end of a year-long rate-cutting cycle [1] - The ECB's latest economic forecasts suggest that inflation will dip below the 2.00% target next year before gradually recovering, which includes considerations for potential future rate cuts [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent data shows that the eurozone economy has proven more resilient than expected, with the inflation rate having fallen to the ECB's target of 2.00% [1] - The Purchasing Managers' Index indicates an acceleration in summer business activity, with new orders in August rising for the first time since May 2024, leading to increased investor optimism regarding the eurozone economic outlook [1] Group 3: External Factors - The 15% tariff imposed by the Trump administration on European goods aligns with ECB predictions, suggesting that external trade policies are influencing economic conditions [1] - Officials have warned that the recent uptick in orders may be a result of U.S. importers placing bulk orders to avoid tariffs, indicating a potential demand drop in the coming months [1]

Core Viewpoint - The strong retail sales data from Canada in July indicates robust domestic consumption and consumer confidence, providing solid fundamental support for the Canadian dollar against the US dollar [1]. Group 1: Retail Sales Performance - Canada's retail sales in July increased by 1.5% month-on-month, aligning with market expectations [1]. - Core retail sales, excluding automobile sales, surged by 1.9%, significantly surpassing the market forecast of 1.1% [1]. - The strong performance in retail sales reflects a broad and significant enhancement in domestic consumption power [1]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The unexpected retail performance reinforces market perceptions of the resilience of the Canadian economy [1]. - This economic strength contributes to the relative strength of the Canadian dollar among major currencies [1]. Group 3: Currency Market Dynamics - The USD/CAD exchange rate is currently supported around 1.3820, with short-term resistance between 1.3900 and 1.3920 [1]. - A breakout above the resistance could lead to further gains towards 1.3980, while a drop below 1.3820 may open up a retracement towards 1.3750 [1]. - The overall trend indicates a range-bound movement in the exchange rate, awaiting new policy and data guidance [1].

Core Viewpoint - The United States has imposed a 50% tariff on Indian goods, which is seen as a significant economic challenge for India and could potentially lower its GDP growth rate below 6% for the fiscal year [1][2][5]. Group 1: Tariff Implementation - The U.S. Department of Homeland Security announced a 50% tariff on all Indian products imported for consumption, effective from August 27, 2025 [1][2]. - This tariff is part of a broader strategy against countries maintaining trade relations with Russia, with the cumulative effect of previous tariffs leading to a total of 50% on Indian imports [2][5]. - The tariffs are expected to impact approximately 66% of India's exports to the U.S., including textiles, gems, shrimp, carpets, and furniture [2]. Group 2: Economic Impact - Experts predict that the tariffs could force India to make strategic adjustments to maintain economic growth while addressing employment and industry competitiveness [2]. - The Reserve Bank of India has indicated it will provide special support to industries affected by the tariffs, expressing confidence in achieving results through trade negotiations [3]. - Analysts warn that if the 50% tariff remains long-term, it could exert pressure on India's economy and corporate profits, potentially reducing GDP growth by 0.8 percentage points over the next two years [5]. Group 3: Government Response - Indian Prime Minister Modi emphasized the government's commitment to protecting farmers and small businesses, asserting that they will not compromise on these interests [3]. - The Indian government is exploring financial assistance for affected exporters and encouraging them to diversify into markets in China, Latin America, and the Middle East [5]. - Modi has also promised comprehensive reforms in the goods and services tax to stimulate the economy, which may help mitigate the impact of the tariffs [5]. Group 4: Trade Negotiations - Ongoing trade negotiations between India and the U.S. have faced challenges, particularly regarding agricultural and dairy sectors, with both sides holding firm on their positions [8]. - The cancellation of a scheduled round of trade talks has further complicated the situation, although Indian officials maintain that discussions are still ongoing [8].

Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production has shown signs of recovery, with the blast furnace operating rate increasing by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year to 5.9% [2][5] - Midstream production shows a mixed outlook, with PTA and automotive production performing poorly, down 6.6% and 5.9% year-on-year respectively, while soda ash and polyester filament production improved, up 5.8% and 3.1% year-on-year [2][17] - Cement production continues to improve, with a slight decrease in grinding operating rate by 1.5 percentage points year-on-year to -5.6%, while cement shipment rates are still low, up 0.8% year-on-year to -2.9% [2][29] Group 2: Construction Industry - The construction industry is experiencing continued improvement, with asphalt operating rates rising by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to 8.6% [2][41] - Cement inventory has slightly decreased, with the cement inventory ratio down by 2.0 percentage points year-on-year to -2.5% [2][37] Group 3: Downstream Demand - Passenger traffic remains high, with port cargo throughput showing resilience, increasing by 7.1% year-on-year to 9.7% [2][62] - Daily average transaction area of new homes is weak, up 2.9 percentage points year-on-year to -6.3%, with first-tier cities seeing a marginal recovery [2][53] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are mixed, with pork and fruit prices decreasing by 0.1% and 0.8% respectively, while egg and vegetable prices increased by 1.7% and 2.5% [3][102] - Industrial product prices have generally declined, with the Nanhua Industrial Price Index down 1.4% [3][114]

Economic Concerns - Economic growth in the first half of 2025 remained high at 5.3% YoY, driven by strong exports and the "two new" sectors, but recent months have shown signs of weakness, particularly in retail sales which dropped to 3.7% in July [3][10][98] - The real estate sector continues to drag on the economy, with credit financing for property companies falling to -15.8%, the lowest in two years, and construction area growth declining significantly [3][17][98] - The decline in sales is evident, with new home prices in 70 cities showing negative month-on-month changes, and sales area and revenue down 7.8% and 14.1% YoY respectively [3][17][98] Price Transmission Issues - The current economic environment has led to difficulties in price transmission from upstream to downstream sectors, with midstream and downstream capacity utilization rates at 74% and 74.7%, respectively, compared to 76.7% for upstream [4][29][30] - Despite improvements in commodity prices due to "anti-involution" policies, the oversupply in midstream and downstream sectors continues to exert downward pressure on prices, with July's PPI remaining low at -3.6% [4][29][30] Service Sector Resilience - While manufacturing sector sentiment is declining, the service sector shows strong resilience, with service production index only slightly down to 5.8% in July [5][38][99] - Service retail sales for the first seven months of 2025 saw a minor decline of 0.1% YoY, with certain service categories like tourism and transportation maintaining double-digit growth [5][38][99] - High levels of travel activity are expected to support service consumption recovery, with projected railway passenger numbers for the summer reaching 953 million, a 5.8% increase YoY [5][44][99] Policy Support for Services - Recent policies are increasingly favoring investments in the service sector, with loan interest subsidy policies expected to generate around 210 billion in new credit for service providers [6][49][100] - The large-scale support for manufacturing investment appears to be tapering off, indicating a potential shift in investment momentum towards the service sector [6][49][100] Export Performance - China's export growth remains robust, with a 7.2% YoY increase in July, primarily driven by improvements in external demand and market share rather than short-term "export grabbing" [7][60][101] - The contribution of "export grabbing" to July's export figures is estimated to be around 2 percentage points, with significant growth in exports of production materials to emerging economies [7][60][101] - The outlook for exports remains positive, with potential for further growth driven by increased investment in emerging markets and improved import shares from regions like the Middle East and Africa [7][73][101]

Economic Concerns - Economic growth in the first half of 2025 was strong at 5.3% YoY, driven by exports and the "two new" sectors, but recent months show signs of weakness[3] - Retail sales growth fell to 3.7% in July, influenced by e-commerce promotions and a gap in national subsidies[3] - Real estate continues to drag on the economy, with credit financing for property companies dropping 13.5 percentage points to -15.8%, the lowest in two years[3][20] Inflation and Price Transmission - July's inflation was below market expectations, with PPI at -3.6% due to poor price transmission from upstream to downstream sectors[4][24] - Capacity utilization in midstream (74%) and downstream (74.7%) is significantly lower than upstream (76.7%), hindering price transmission[4][24] Service Sector Resilience - While manufacturing sector sentiment is declining, the service sector shows strong resilience, with a service production index at 5.8%[5][32] - Service retail sales for January to July saw a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points to 5.2%, but certain service categories like tourism and leisure are experiencing double-digit growth[5][35] Export Performance - Exports grew by 7.2% YoY in July, with only 30% attributed to "panic buying" and 70% due to improved external demand and market share[7][44] - The contribution of "panic buying" to July's exports was approximately 2 percentage points, primarily affecting trade with ASEAN and Hong Kong[7][44] Future Outlook - Emerging economies are increasing investment, which, combined with China's growing import share in the Middle East and Africa, may boost exports to these regions[8][59] - Risks include potential short-term constraints from economic transformation and the effectiveness of policy implementation[8]