2025 年 12 月 12 日 行业日报 看好/维持 非银行金融 非银行金融 内需为本，改革为楫：2025 年中央经济工作会议精神与对金融行 业影响解读 ◼ 走势比较 (30%) (20%) (10%) 0% 10% 20% 24/12/12 25/2/22 25/5/5 25/7/16 25/9/26 25/12/7 非银行金融 沪深300 ◼ 子行业评级 从"总量扩张"转向"质效提升"，注重跨周期调节。会议提出五个 "必须"，包括"必须充分挖掘经济潜能"、"必须坚持政策支持和改革创 新并举"等，凸显政策思路从短期逆周期调节向中长期结构性改革深化。 与 2024 年会议相比，本次会议更注重供需平衡的修复，而非单纯的需求 刺激，政策工具更强调"存量与增量并重"。例如：财政政策从"加大强 度"转为"保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量"，重心转向优 化支出结构、化解地方财政压力，而非进一步扩大赤字；货币政策明确将 "促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升"作为核心目标，提出"灵活高效运 用降准降息等多种政策工具"，但更注重传导机制畅通，避免"大水漫灌"； 这一导向对金融行业意味着政策环境趋于稳定，金融机构需更聚焦 ...

定调稳中求进、提质增效，重提跨周期调节。 和去年12月的政治局会议相比，更加积极的财 政政策和适度宽松的货币政策的政策基调没有变化。最大的不同在于，去年的"稳中求进，以 进促稳"换成了"稳中求进、提质增效"，"加强超常规逆周期调节"换成了"加大逆周期和跨周期 调节力度"。在经历今年的超常规政策后，即便国际经贸环境迅速变化，去年的政策目标，尤 其是稳住股市这一目标，基本顺利完成，明年经济增长的高质量就成为了政策关注的重点。通 稿中的新提法"发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应"，和去年充实政策工具箱的表述相比，也说 明明年将更加注重政策落地的效果。 政策节奏上，更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争。 这一提法最早出现在今年4月的政治局 会议通稿中，本次重提也表明决策层对经贸斗争的长期性有充分认知。经历今年的几轮谈判 后，中美经贸关系逐渐趋于稳定，因此本次通稿中对"外部冲击"着墨不多，但明年临近美国中 期选举，经贸形势仍有生变可能性。当国际经贸斗争趋于激烈时，需要下更大力气稳定国内经 济，而当国际经贸斗争趋于缓和时，需要进一步推动结构性改革等中长期议题，这为理解明年 的增量政策节奏提供了参考。 Q： 请问重阳投资， 如何 ...

【环球网财经综合报道】国际货币基金组织（IMF）日前表示，尽管面临多重冲击，中国经济仍展现出显著韧性，预 计中国经济在2025年和2026年将分别增长5.0%和4.5%。相较10月《世界经济展望》，上述预测值分别上调了0.2个和 0.3个百分点。 联合新闻网则发文提到，IMF中国事务主管钱德拉（Sonali Jain-Chandra）表示，中国的关键政策优先事项是推动转向 消费拉动型经济增长模式，摆脱对于出口、投资的过度依赖。此外，钱德拉还提出3点建议，包括： 《联合早报》发文称，IMF也直言，尽管中国经济增长呈现韧性，但在内需疲软且存在通缩压力的情况下，经济失衡 仍然显著。 第一是透过更具扩张性的宏观经济政策和配套改革以降低过高的家庭储蓄；透过放松货币政策和提高汇率弹性以提供 额外的财政刺激，促进国内需求、推升通胀；增强社会保障体系、支持房地产行业调整。 与此同时，IMF敦促中国加快结构性改革，推动向消费拉动型增长模式转型。它也建议北京采取更有力的扩张性宏观 经济政策，实施改革来降低高企的家庭储蓄，并缩减不必要的产业政策支持和低效投资。 第二是为确保宏观金融稳定与应对债务脆弱性问题，政府需要实施财政和金融框 ...

Group 1 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects China's economy to grow by 5.0% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026, with upward adjustments of 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points respectively compared to the October World Economic Outlook [2] - The IMF attributes the improved growth forecast to China's commendable macroeconomic stimulus measures and lower-than-expected tariffs on exports [2][3] - Key policy priorities identified by the IMF include transitioning to a consumption-driven growth model, reducing reliance on exports and investment, and implementing more robust expansionary macroeconomic policies [3][4] Group 2 - The IMF forecasts that China's overall inflation will rise from 0% in 2025 to 0.8% in 2026, remaining lower than that of trade partners [3] - The current account surplus is expected to reach 3.3% of GDP in 2025 [3] - Structural reforms are recommended to address productivity slowdown and labor force shrinkage, with priorities including opening up the service sector and improving competition among enterprises [4]

Group 1 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects China's economy to grow by 5.0% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026, with these forecasts being revised upward by 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points respectively compared to the October World Economic Outlook [1] - The IMF attributes the upward revision to China's effective macroeconomic stimulus measures and lower-than-expected tariffs on exports [1] - The IMF emphasizes the need for China to transition to a consumption-driven growth model, reducing reliance on exports and investment [2] Group 2 - The IMF forecasts that China's overall inflation will rise from 0% in 2025 to 0.8% in 2026, indicating a relatively low inflation rate compared to trade partners [2] - Key policy priorities identified by the IMF include implementing expansionary macroeconomic policies, reducing high household savings, and cutting unnecessary industrial policy support [2] - Structural reforms are recommended to address productivity slowdown and labor force shrinkage, which could boost GDP by approximately 2.5 percentage points by 2030 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has completed its Article IV consultation visit to China, projecting economic growth rates of 5.0% for 2025 and 4.5% for 2026, reflecting an upward revision due to macroeconomic stimulus measures and lower-than-expected tariffs on exports [1][2]. Group 1 - The IMF's growth forecast for China in 2025 has been increased by 0.2 percentage points, and for 2026 by 0.3 percentage points compared to the October World Economic Outlook [1]. - IMF President Kristalina Georgieva noted that the expected slowdown in 2026 is attributed to trade friction potentially affecting export growth and the time required for policy measures to stimulate the economy [1]. - The projected growth rate of 4.5% for 2026 remains significantly higher than the IMF's global economic growth forecast of 3.2%, indicating resilience in the Chinese economy [1]. Group 2 - Sonali Jain-Chandra highlighted the resilience of the Chinese economy despite recent shocks, attributing it to recent policy measures and reduced bilateral tariffs between the U.S. and China [2]. - The IMF anticipates that average inflation will rise from 0% in 2025 to 0.8% in 2026 [2]. - To transition to a consumption-driven growth model, the IMF recommends a "more urgent and forceful package of policies" to mitigate risks and maintain robust mid-term growth [2]. - The IMF projects that through expansionary macroeconomic policies and structural reforms, China's GDP could increase by approximately 2.5 percentage points by 2030, enhancing living standards and contributing to a stronger global economy [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Prime Minister of Samoa, Su'a Amala Suria, has reaffirmed the government's commitment to a 7% economic growth target despite facing various challenges [1] Group 1: Economic Growth Strategy - The government has set an ambitious medium-term economic growth target of 7% [1] - Six key pillars have been identified to drive this vision: inclusive growth, export diversification, policy sustainability, production-oriented economy, rural development, and digital transformation [1] Group 2: Structural Reforms - The government will not deviate from other structural reforms, including state-owned enterprise reform, trade facilitation measures, and the establishment of a single-window investment platform [1] - The central bank governor has stated that the central bank will leverage its expertise to buffer against economic shocks [1] Group 3: Economic Resilience - The nation is now better equipped than ever to withstand sudden economic shocks [1]

Core Insights - The current global economic situation is characterized by a slowdown in recovery and multiple risks, including trade tensions, geopolitical conflicts, inflation pressures, and debt risks, which undermine growth certainty and international cooperation [1][2] - Emerging economies, particularly China, are contributing positively by maintaining a multilateral trade system, enhancing international policy communication, and promoting innovation [1][2] Group 1: Economic Challenges - International economic organization leaders emphasize the need for unity and wisdom to address challenges, advocating for coordinated actions to inject certainty and new momentum into the global economy [2] - Key challenges include rising trade barriers, trade fragmentation, inflation, debt, and exchange rate volatility, which require collective responses from major economies [2] Group 2: Policy Recommendations - Strengthening international macroeconomic policy coordination is essential, with a focus on the spillover effects of macro policies and reducing uncertainties in trade policies [2] - Countries should enhance domestic policies by prioritizing fiscal sustainability, improving monetary policy credibility, and accelerating structural reforms to unleash private sector growth potential [2] Group 3: Digital and Green Transformation - Promoting digital and green transitions is crucial for stimulating new economic growth and reshaping the global economic landscape, with an emphasis on international cooperation in AI and low-carbon technologies [2] - China is recognized as a stabilizing force in global economic growth and is expected to continue providing development opportunities and reliable momentum for global economic development [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for international cooperation to address economic challenges and inject certainty and new momentum into the global economy [1] Group 2 - Strengthening international macroeconomic policy coordination is essential, with major economies needing to consider the spillover effects of their policies and collaboratively address risks related to inflation, debt, and exchange rate fluctuations [1] - There is a call to reduce uncertainty in trade policies and effectively respond to rising trade barriers and fragmentation [1] Group 3 - Countries are encouraged to improve domestic policies by focusing on fiscal sustainability, enhancing the credibility of monetary policy, and increasing the resilience of the financial sector [1] - Structural reforms should be accelerated to unleash the growth potential of the private sector [1] Group 4 - The promotion of digital and green transitions is vital, as the digital economy and green development are seen as key drivers for new economic growth and reshaping the global economic landscape [1] - International cooperation in areas such as artificial intelligence and low-carbon technologies is necessary to ensure that new development outcomes benefit all of humanity [1]

Core Insights - The World Bank experts highlight Algeria's positive progress in controlling inflation and improving non-oil sector performance, laying a solid foundation for stronger, more sustainable, and diversified economic growth [1] Economic Performance - Algeria's GDP growth rate is projected to reach 4.1% in the first half of 2025, with an annual forecast of 3.8% [1] - The non-oil sector is expected to grow by 5.4%, indicating successful efforts towards economic diversification [1] Inflation Trends - The inflation rate is anticipated to drop to 1.7% in the first nine months of 2025, primarily due to declining food prices and stable exchange rates [1] - The World Bank views these trends as signs that Algeria is moving towards a more robust and sustainable economic structure [1]