Market Overview - International gold prices fell again on August 19, with an opening price of $3335.57 per ounce, a high of $3345.29, a low of $3320.92, and a closing price of $3322.60 [1] News Analysis - Trump criticized Jerome Powell on social media, claiming that his actions are severely harming the real estate industry and that there are no signs of inflation, suggesting a significant rate cut is necessary [2] - S&P confirmed the U.S. sovereign rating at "AA+/A-1+" with a stable outlook, indicating that while the fiscal deficit may not improve significantly in the coming years, it also will not worsen [2] - S&P projects that U.S. government net debt will exceed 100% of GDP over the next three years, with an average deficit of 6% of GDP from 2025 to 2028, down from 7.5% last year [2] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is 13.9%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 86.1% [6] Geopolitical Developments - Trump is arranging a meeting between Putin and Zelensky, emphasizing that the U.S. will assist Ukraine in defense but will not deploy ground troops [4] - Discussions are ongoing about providing Ukraine with security guarantees, although NATO membership is off the table [4] - A potential summit in Budapest involving U.S., Russian, and Ukrainian leaders is being planned, with security concerns regarding the location due to historical context [5] Technical Analysis - Gold prices showed a downward trend, with a significant drop leading to a short-term bottom reversal, and the market is expected to maintain a bearish outlook [9] - The short-term gold price trend indicates a strong downward movement, with the possibility of a correction due to oversold conditions [9]

Group 1 - Christopher Waller is emerging as a leading candidate to replace Jerome Powell as the Federal Reserve Chair in Trump's advisory team, noted for his willingness to base policies on forecasts rather than current data [1][2] - Waller has already met with Trump's team regarding the position, although he has not yet spoken directly with Trump himself [2] - Other candidates for the position include Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett, with Hassett having previously met with Trump and made a strong impression [2] Group 2 - Powell's term as Fed Chair ends on May 15, 2026, and he has stated multiple times that he will not leave early; Trump indicated that an announcement regarding the new Fed Chair could come soon [2] - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% during its fifth consecutive meeting, with Waller and Michelle Bowman voting against the decision [2] - Following the rate decision, a non-farm payroll report showed a significant slowdown in U.S. job growth, aligning with Waller and Bowman's concerns [4] Group 3 - Waller, appointed to the Fed Board by Trump in 2020, has engaged in public debates on anti-inflation strategies with notable economists, asserting that the Fed could control post-pandemic inflation without significantly raising unemployment [4] - His predictions were validated as inflation rates fell below 3%, while unemployment remained below 4.2% [4] - Waller emphasized the importance of the Fed's independence for the U.S. economy and acknowledged that criticism is part of the role of the Fed Chair [5]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates in July, but there are significant internal divisions regarding future rate cuts [1] - The absence of Fed Governor Kugler during the meeting raised concerns about the internal disagreements within the Fed, especially after his resignation announcement [1] - The voting results showed that out of 11 committee members, 9 voted to keep rates unchanged, indicating a majority support for the current stance [1] Group 2 - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly suggested that the Fed may need to cut rates more than twice if the labor market weakens significantly [1] - President Trump expressed satisfaction with the Fed's decision, as a potential rate cut could align with his goal of lower interest rates, despite concerns about its impact on his approval ratings [2] - The dollar index is currently in a long-term bearish trend but is in a bottoming phase, with resistance at the 100-point level [4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain stable borrowing costs, continuing a wait-and-see approach since January, as indicated by Chairman Jerome Powell, who noted a "robust" labor market [2] - The July employment report revealed only 73,000 new jobs added, significantly below the monthly growth needed to keep pace with population growth, with the unemployment rate rising from 4.1% to 4.2% [3] - The labor department revised down previous months' employment growth data, showing that job growth has been weak, with the average monthly growth from May to July being the slowest since 2009, excluding the pandemic recession [4] Group 2 - Internal dissent within the Federal Reserve has emerged, with Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman voting against the decision to maintain interest rates, marking the first time since 1993 that multiple governors have opposed a decision [6] - Both dissenting officials cited signs of weakness in the labor market as their main reason for disagreement, downplaying the potential impact of Trump's tariffs on prices [6] - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester expressed confidence in the decision made earlier in the week, despite the disappointing employment report, indicating a cautious approach to interpreting individual reports [7]

Group 1 - President Trump escalates his long-standing conflict with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, demanding significant interest rate cuts and suggesting the Fed Board should "take control" if Powell refuses to act [1] - Following the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates, investors anticipate only one rate cut by the end of the year, with no clear signals from Powell regarding future cuts [1] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), chaired by Powell, is responsible for interest rate decisions, consisting of seven members from the Washington Fed Board and five regional Fed presidents [1] Group 2 - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicates that Trump is expected to announce Powell's successor by the end of the year [2] - Mnuchin mentions a list of strong candidates is being prepared, and suggests a potential majority in favor of rate cuts may soon form within the Fed Board due to upcoming vacancies [3] - The recent FOMC decision saw dissent from two board members, marking the first time since 1993 that two members voted against the decision [3]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for not lowering interest rates, suggesting that the Federal Reserve Board should take control if Powell continues to refuse to act [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision - On July 30, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive time since early 2025 that rates have been held steady [1] - The decision was met with dissent from two board members appointed by Trump, who voted against the decision in favor of an immediate 25 basis point rate cut, marking the first time since 1993 that two board members opposed a rate decision simultaneously [1]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump continues to criticize Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, claiming he is unfit for the position and is causing significant economic losses for the country [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a change [1]. - Market expectations align with the Fed's decision, as the probability of maintaining rates in September is 60.8%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut is 39.2% [3]. - Analysts from Deutsche Bank predict that the Fed may signal a willingness to cut rates in the near future, which could lead to a weaker dollar [6]. Group 2: Trump's Criticism and Economic Implications - Trump labeled Powell as "Mr. Too Late," accusing him of being ineffective and politically motivated, which he claims is detrimental to the economy [1][3]. - Trump also criticized the renovation of the Federal Reserve building, calling it one of the most corrupt projects in history [3]. - He emphasized the importance of tariffs for national protection, stating that without them, the country would face dire consequences [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core View - Overnight, the US announced that the annualized quarterly rate of GDP in Q2 rebounded by 3%, exceeding expectations, and ADP employment increased by 104,000, also exceeding expectations and the previous value. After the data release, the US dollar rebounded, and precious metals fell under pressure. The Fed meeting maintained the interest rate as expected, with increasing internal differences. Powell reiterated that rate cuts would depend on data. Recently, geopolitical risks have been stable, tariff negotiations have become clearer, the risk of economic recession has decreased, and the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment has suppressed the performance of precious metals, and the shock adjustment may continue. Attention should be paid to the US weekly initial jobless claims and PCE data tonight [1] Summary According to Related Content Fed Interest Rate Decision - The Fed maintained the interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50%. Governors Waller and Bowman voted against and advocated rate cuts. Powell avoided guiding on a September rate cut, stating that the current monetary policy stance is in a favorable position, emphasizing dependence on data. The market's bet on the Fed's full - year rate cut decreased by 8BP to 36BP [2] Tariff Policies - Trump signed an executive order to suspend the minimum tax - free treatment for low - value goods. He set August 1st as a non - extendable deadline, with India to pay 25% tariffs and be fined for purchasing military and energy products from Russia starting August 1st. He also announced a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products (excluding copper ore and cathode copper) starting August 1st, causing US copper to plummet 18%. An executive order was signed to impose a 40% tariff on Brazil, making the total tariff reach 50% (excluding aircraft and energy sectors) 7 days later. A comprehensive trade agreement was reached with South Korea, with a 15% tariff on South Korea, and South Korea will invest $350 billion and purchase $100 billion worth of energy products. Canada may not end trade negotiations with the US by August 1st, and France is negotiating for tariff exemptions on wine and spirits [2] US Economic Data - The US economic growth in Q2 was 3%, exceeding the expected 2.4%. The ADP employment in July increased by 104,000, exceeding the expected 75,000, rebounding to the highest growth level since March [3]

同时，美联储利率决议声明的措辞符合市场预期，其中对经济活动的描述从"继续保持稳健步伐扩张"改 为"有所放缓"。 新华财经北京7月31日电在美国经济数据好于预期、美联储第五次维持利率不变并淡化9月降息预期的背 景下，隔夜国际金价大幅回落。其中现货黄金一举跌破3300美元／盎司关口，触及三周新低。 基本面方面，北京时间7月31日凌晨，美联储连续第五次会议按兵不动，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持 在4.25%-4.5%不变。美联储表示，通胀仍略高、就业稳健，上半年经济增长放缓，不确定性仍然较高。 沃勒和鲍曼两位理事持不同意见，赞成降息。 此外，美联储主席鲍威尔的表态整体处于中性立场，但并未明确让市场为9月降息的可能性做好准备。 接下来的会议纪要以及鲍威尔未来将在杰克逊霍尔年会上的讲话才更可能成为给9月行动铺路的机会。 从技术上看，金价隔夜直接跌破周内第一支撑3295美元／盎司附近，最低至3268美元／盎司附近后小幅 反弹，不过从整体走势上看，金价短期空头趋势保持完好，逢高做空是短期的主要交易策略，下方支撑 关注3253美元／盎司附近，上方阻力则关注3295美元／盎司附近，预计本周金价或将在该区间内震荡。 （文章来源：新 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - For the nickel variety, the recent market sentiment has cooled down, and the oversupply pattern of refined nickel remains. The estimated upper limit of the recent range is between 123,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton, and the lower limit is around 117,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton. Short - term range trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate decision and China's official PMI data for July [2][3]. - For the stainless - steel variety, the main contract of stainless steel has a bottom - divergence structure at 12,400 yuan/ton. It is expected to break through the 120 - day moving average resistance level. The estimated upper limit of the recent range is around 13,100 yuan/ton, and the lower limit is between 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton. Short - term range trading is also recommended, along with monitoring the Fed's interest rate decision and China's official PMI data for July [4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On July 30, 2025, the main contract 2509 of Shanghai nickel opened at 121,500 yuan/ton and closed at 121,720 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.15% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 153,323 lots, and the open interest was 92,635 lots [1]. - The main contract 2509 showed a narrow - range oscillation throughout the day, with a small positive line on the daily chart. The trading volume increased compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest increased slightly. The red column area of the daily MACD continued to narrow, indicating a weakening upward momentum in the short term. There was a bottom - divergence phenomenon around 117,000 yuan/ton on June 23, and it is estimated that 117,000 yuan/ton is a strong support level in the medium - to - long term [2]. - In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel was raised by 600 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream brands in the market were all raised. The refined nickel futures price has been rising continuously following commodities due to the influence of capital sentiment, but the sentiment has shown signs of cooling this week. The spot trading of refined nickel is acceptable, and the oversupply pattern of the fundamentals remains unchanged. The premium and discount have decreased due to the influence of contract switching but are still at a high level, so the spot price provides support for the futures price. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 100 yuan/ton to 2,100 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by - 100 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 21,759 (- 121.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 208,092 (3,180) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - Short - term range trading is the main strategy. The upper limit of the estimated range is 123,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton, and the lower limit is 117,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the Fed's interest rate decision and China's official PMI data for July. For single - side trading, range trading is recommended; for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading, there are no specific strategies [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On July 30, 2025, the main contract 2509 of stainless steel opened at 12,880 yuan/ton and closed at 12,920 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 153,403 lots, and the open interest was 102,650 lots [3]. - The main contract of stainless steel oscillated slightly upward, with a doji positive line on the daily chart. The trading volume of the 09 contract increased compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased slightly. The red column area of the daily MACD continued to narrow, and the sharp decline after the rally last Friday night indicated that there was pressure above 13,100 yuan/ton. It is considered that 13,100 yuan/ton is a short - term resistance level. There was a bottom - divergence phenomenon around 12,400 yuan/ton on June 24, and it is estimated that 12,400 yuan/ton is a strong support level in the medium - to - long term [4]. - In the spot market, the morning quotations of merchants in the Foshan market were raised by 50 - 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot trading volume has rebounded, and the downstream purchasing sentiment has also improved. According to Mysteel, the nickel - iron market quotation decreased compared to the previous trading day, and most sellers' quotations were around 905 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory). It is expected that the nickel - iron price will remain stable in the short term. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,000 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,000 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 110 - 310 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 912.0 yuan/nickel point [4][5]. - **Strategy** - Short - term range trading is the main strategy. The upper limit of the estimated range is around 13,100 yuan/ton, and the lower limit is 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the Fed's interest rate decision and China's official PMI data for July. For single - side trading, a neutral strategy is recommended; for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading, there are no specific strategies [6].