美联储利率决议

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7月31日讯,美联储利率决议公布后,现货金银、美元指数DXY短线波动暂时不大。
news flash· 2025-07-30 18:01
金十数据7月31日讯, 美联储利率决议公布后,现货金银、美元指数DXY短线波动暂时不大。 美元指数 ...
美联储利率决议前夕,美股小幅走高
news flash· 2025-07-30 17:52
金十数据7月31日讯,在美联储利率决议公布前夕,美股三大股指小幅走高,道指涨0.07%。标普500指 数涨0.25%,纳斯达克指数上涨0.46%。华尔街普遍预期美联储将维持利率不变,但投资者更关注决议 投票中可能出现的内部分歧。"市场最关注的是本次维持利率不变的决议会获得多少反对票,"Horizon Investments投资组合管理主管希尔表示。投资者还将仔细研读美联储政策声明,并密切关注美联储主席 鲍威尔在新闻发布会上的表态。西北互惠财富管理公司首席投资官舒特认为,市场走向的关键在于鲍威 尔是否会释放9月会议可能降息的信号。CNN恐惧与贪婪指数显示,当前"贪婪"情绪主导市场。 美联储利率决议前夕,美股小幅走高 ...
美元直线拉升,特朗普又双叒叕施压美联储……
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-07-30 15:07
Market Overview - US stock markets opened slightly higher with the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 indices showing minor gains [4] - The US dollar index experienced a sudden increase, while spot gold prices fell below $3300 [1] Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its interest rate decision, with a 98% probability of maintaining the benchmark rate between 4.25% and 4.5% [6] - The US Commerce Department's preliminary estimate indicates a 3.0% annual growth in real GDP for Q2 2025 [6] Company Performance - New Oriental reported a 9.4% year-over-year increase in Q4 net revenue to $1.243 billion, but net profit dropped 73.7% to $7.1 million due to a $60.3 million goodwill impairment [10] - Excluding the Oriental Selection business, core education revenue reached $1.09 billion, reflecting an 18.7% growth [10] - For the fiscal year 2025, New Oriental anticipates a 13.6% revenue increase to $4.9 billion and a 20.1% rise in net profit to $372 million [10] - The company projects fiscal year 2026 revenue between $5.15 billion and $5.39 billion, representing a 5% to 10% growth [10] - In the automotive sector, shares of Li Auto and NIO fell over 3% [10] Stock Movements - Wingstop shares surged nearly 28%, LendingClub rose nearly 17%, and other notable gains included Tarrytown and Weifu Group, which increased over 15% and 13% respectively [5] - Chinese concept stocks mostly declined, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 0.86% [8]
秦氏金升:7.30数据利空打压金价,黄金行情走势分析及操作建议
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-30 14:02
北京时间周三(7月30日)ADP与PCE数据公布后,美元指数短线拉升,现货黄金小幅走低,投资者迅速调整对美联储货币政策的预期。 没有不成功的投资,只有不成功的操作,秦氏金升浸染金融行业十余载,有丰富的实战操盘经验和独特的交易理念,我们拥有全球稳健 的交易系统在这里,对黄金、原油、等投资领域研究多年,具有扎实的理论基础和实战经验,擅长技术面消息面结合式操作,注重资金 管理和风险控制,操作风格稳健果断,以随和负责的性格与犀利果断的操作而被广大投资朋友认可。分析文章只是对市场未来可能的描 述,只是观点的表达,不作为投资决策依据,投资有风险,交易务必注意合理的仓位配置、资金管理和风险控制,无风控不交易,不要 让交易失控! 本周开盘以来,周一是延续了上周的一个跌势,然后在3301附近止涨反弹,周二与周三的亚欧盘是一个震荡上行的走势,小时级盘面可 以明显看到反弹力度不足,不说周一开盘走高的高点,就连最后一波的跌势起点3338都无法触及,足以说明在消息面与数据公布密集时 间市场情绪偏于谨慎,今晚的几个数据公布,金价跌势算是收复了这几天震荡反弹的高度,但是延续度还需要继续观察。老秦个人认为 本周还是需要关注美联储的利率决议, ...
今晚将公布美国ADP、GDP数据,数据前如何做博弈?凌晨的美联储利率决议,会让黄金转向吗?实战交易员Rinly正在直播分析中,点击马上观看!
news flash· 2025-07-30 11:28
Core Viewpoint - The upcoming release of the ADP and GDP data in the U.S. is anticipated to influence market movements, particularly in relation to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and its potential impact on gold prices [1] Group 1 - The ADP data and GDP figures are expected to be significant indicators for traders [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is scheduled for release in the early hours, which may lead to volatility in gold prices [1] - A live analysis session is being conducted by trader Rinly to discuss strategies ahead of the data release [1]
美联储恐面临逾30年来罕见一幕 或有两名理事“倒戈”
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-30 09:35
"美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos发表文章称,本周的美联储会议可能会有两位理事持不同意见,这是30多 年来(或者说连续259次政策会议)从未出现过的情况。 鲍威尔和他的部分同事已经表示倾向于在本周的会议上保持观望态度,而潜在的反对者——美联储理事 沃勒和鲍曼——恰好是特朗普总统任命的两名人选。两人都表示支持降息,特朗普也公开要求降息。 值得注意的是,二人均为特朗普任命的官员,而特朗普近期频繁施压美联储,不仅突访总部、公开批评 鲍威尔领导力,更在鲍威尔明年5月任期结束前引发继任者角逐。 历史数据显示,美联储理事集体异议极为罕见,上一次出现还要追溯至1993年,此后的259次会议均未 再现这一场景。 美联储将于北京时间周四凌晨02:00公布利率决议,02:30鲍威尔将召开新闻发布会。外界普遍预计,在 7月29日至30日的会议结束时,政策制定者将连续第五次维持利率不变。然而,几乎铁定将再度"按兵不 动"的美联储,却可能遭遇三十多年来最为嘹亮的"反对声"。 除沃勒和鲍曼外,其他成员均未表露出在本次会议上降息的倾向。6月会议纪要显示,部分官员甚至主 张今年不降息。本次会议上,理事阿德里安娜·库格勒(Adrian ...
何宇鑫:中美谈判暗流再涌 黄金恐再度试探高位
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-30 06:01
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the ongoing developments in the US-China trade negotiations and their potential impact on the market, particularly the US dollar and gold prices [4][5][6] - The US dollar index has risen, reaching a five-week high above the 99 mark, as the market anticipates the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and key economic data [1] - Gold prices have halted a four-day decline, briefly touching the $3330 mark but failing to maintain that level, indicating volatility in precious metals [2] Group 2 - The third round of US-China trade talks has been characterized by constructive dialogue, with both sides recognizing the importance of a stable economic relationship [4] - Continuous communication between the US and China is expected to facilitate the stable and healthy development of bilateral trade relations [5] - The market sentiment suggests that the A-shares in China are likely to continue rising due to positive developments in trade negotiations [7]
金荣中国:美联储利率决议公布在即,金价触底反弹震荡走高
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-30 01:37
Market Overview - International gold prices experienced fluctuations and closed higher on July 29, with an opening price of $3,314.71 per ounce, a high of $3,334.13, a low of $3,307.99, and a closing price of $3,320.60 [1]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. JOLTs job openings for June recorded 7.437 million, below the market expectation of 7.5 million and down from the previous value of 7.769 million. This indicates a decline in job openings after two months of increases, suggesting a stable overall labor demand [2][4]. - The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for July was reported at 97.2, exceeding the market expectation of 95 and up from the previous value of 93. This reflects a slight improvement in consumer sentiment, although it remains below last year's levels [2][4]. Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve officials are reportedly divided on the need for future interest rate cuts, with some waiting for clearer evidence before making a decision. The focus will be on whether Chairman Powell will hint at a potential rate cut in September during the upcoming press conference [4][6]. Trade Developments - The U.S. Commerce Secretary announced that President Trump will unveil pharmaceutical industry policies within two weeks. Additionally, Trump indicated that India may face tariffs of 20%-25%, although an agreement has not yet been finalized [5][6]. Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold prices showed a rebound after a period of decline, with short-term support levels being established. The market is currently in a cautious trading phase, with specific trading ranges suggested for both long and short positions [8].
黄金,如期超跌反弹;美联储利率决议将至,关注冲高回落!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-30 01:21
Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing strong bearish pressure, with a significant drop from the recent high of 3439, indicating a potential further decline towards the support levels of 3245 and 3150-3120 [2][4]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The recent decline in gold prices marks the first occurrence of four consecutive bearish daily candles since the rise began in November 2022, suggesting a strong return of bearish sentiment [2]. - The 60-day moving average and key support levels have been breached, indicating a failure of bullish momentum and a shift towards bearish trends [2]. - Short-term trading strategies suggest a focus on buying on dips, as the market is currently oversold, with potential for a rebound before further declines [4][11]. Group 2: Market Events and Data - Upcoming economic data releases, including ADP employment figures and GDP, are expected to influence market sentiment, alongside the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [6]. - The gold market is anticipated to remain volatile as traders react to these economic indicators and geopolitical developments [6][11]. Group 3: Silver Market Insights - The silver market has shown a similar pattern, with recent price action indicating resistance at the 39.7 level, aligning with previous expectations [8][10]. - The overall outlook for silver remains bearish, with key resistance levels identified at 38.5 and 39.7, while support is seen at lower levels [10]. Group 4: Broader Market Context - The U.S. dollar index is on an upward trend, which may exert additional pressure on gold and silver prices, with key resistance levels at 99.5-100 [10]. - The performance of U.S. stock futures has been mixed, indicating uncertainty in the broader market, which could impact commodity trading strategies [15].
研究所晨会观点精萃-20250730
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 00:58
Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Morning Meeting View Highlights of the Research Institute on July 30, 2025, covering macro - finance, stocks, precious metals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and agricultural products [2] Group 2: Macro - Finance - Overseas, the US dollar index continued to rise due to market waiting for the Fed's interest - rate decision, better - than - expected economic data, and good results of US trade negotiations. However, the June job - vacancy data was worse than expected, indicating some weakness in the US labor market, and the good performance of US Treasury auctions led to a decline in Treasury yields. Domestically, China's economic growth in the first half of the year was higher than expected, but consumption and investment slowed down significantly in June. China introduced a national child - rearing subsidy system, and a new round of Sino - US trade talks may extend the 90 - day tariff truce, which is beneficial to domestic risk appetite [2] - For assets, stocks are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; Treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate and correct at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; for the commodity sector, black metals may have increased short - term fluctuations, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; non - ferrous metals may fluctuate and correct in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; energy chemicals may rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; precious metals may fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] Group 3: Stocks - Driven by sectors such as biomedicine, steel, and communication equipment, the domestic stock market rose slightly. The short - term macro - upward drive has increased, and it is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term. Follow - up attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade talks and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [3] Group 4: Precious Metals - The precious - metals market continued to fluctuate narrowly. With the continuous conclusion of trade agreements, market risk appetite recovered, and precious metals were under pressure. The Sino - US negotiation results met market expectations. The market expects the Fed to keep the interest - rate range at 4.25 - 4.5% unchanged this week and maintains the expectation of an interest - rate cut in September. Precious metals may fluctuate in the short term, but the medium - and long - term upward pattern remains unchanged, and the strategic allocation value of gold is prominent [4] Group 5: Black Metals Steel - The domestic steel futures and spot markets rebounded significantly, but the trading volume remained low. The market sentiment improved due to anti - involution policies and possible production restrictions in the north. The real demand has not improved significantly, the apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 1.98 tons week - on - week, and the supply decreased by 1.22 tons week - on - week. The coke price increase was implemented for the fourth time, and the cost support was strong. The steel market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the near future [5][6] Iron Ore - The futures and spot prices of iron ore rebounded significantly. The growth space of iron - ore demand is limited, and if production - restriction policies are implemented from August to September, iron - water production may decline. Steel mills mainly replenish inventory on a rigid - demand basis. The global iron - ore shipping volume increased by 91 tons week - on - week, but the arrival volume decreased by 130.7 tons. The port inventory increased slightly. Iron - ore prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [6] Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded. The port manganese - ore quotation increased. The production attitude of Inner Mongolia factories is positive. The national utilization rate of silicon - manganese production capacity increased by 1.05% to 41.58%, and the daily output increased by 520 tons; the national utilization rate of silicon - iron production capacity increased by 0.88% to 33.33%, and the daily output increased by 330 tons. The prices of ferroalloys are expected to be strong in the short term [7] Soda Ash - The main soda - ash contract was strong. The supply decreased week - on - week, but there is still an oversupply situation. The downstream demand is weak, and the profit decreased week - on - week. The anti - involution policy supports the bottom price, but the long - term price is suppressed by the loose supply - demand pattern. In the short term, the price center is rising due to policy trading, but it is advisable to hold an empty position to avoid risks when the trading logic returns to fundamentals [8] Glass - The main glass contract was strong. The daily melting volume increased slightly, and the supply pressure increased due to the off - season. The terminal real - estate industry is weak, and the demand has not improved. The profit increased week - on - week. The anti - involution policy and relevant guidelines support the short - term price, but it is advisable to hold an empty position to avoid risks when the trading logic returns to fundamentals [8][9] Group 6: Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - The US plans to impose 15% - 20% tariffs on countries without trade agreements. The short - term growth - stabilization plan is beneficial to copper prices. The current spot TC of copper concentrate is - 42.63 dollars/ton, showing a slight recovery. Comex copper inventories continue to accumulate, reaching over 250,000 short tons, the highest level in recent years [10] Aluminum - Aluminum prices fell slightly on Tuesday. Fundamentally, the situation is weakening, with domestic social inventories and LME inventories increasing. The impact of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's document is limited. The expected increase in aluminum prices is limited, and it is advisable to wait for the sentiment to cool down instead of shorting for the time being [10] Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the production cost of recycled - aluminum plants is rising, leading to losses and even production cuts. It is in the off - season, and the manufacturing orders are growing weakly. Considering cost support, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but the upside space is limited [10] Tin - The combined utilization rate of production capacity in Yunnan and Jiangxi continued to rise to 55.51%, an increase of 1.03% week - on - week. The supply of tin ore tends to be loose. The terminal demand is weak, and the inventory increased by 230 tons. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the upside space will be suppressed in the medium term [11] Lithium Carbonate - The main lithium - carbonate contract 09 fell 5.9% on Tuesday, with the latest settlement price at 70,300 yuan/ton. The weighted contract reduced positions by 79,000 lots, with a total position of 720,000 lots. The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate both decreased by 3,000 yuan/ton. The price of Australian lithium ore decreased. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term and look for opportunities after the price stabilizes [12][13] Industrial Silicon - The main industrial - silicon contract 09 rose 2.35% on Tuesday, with the weighted contract increasing positions by 10,000 lots to 530,000 lots. The spot price of East - China oxygen - containing 553 was 9,800 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 450 yuan/ton. The latest warehouse - receipt inventory was 250,400 tons. It is advisable to wait and see due to large short - term fluctuations [13] Polysilicon - The main polysilicon contract 09 settled at 50,250 yuan/ton on Tuesday, a significant increase of 3.76%. The weighted contract increased positions by 26,000 lots to 360,000 lots. The SMM forecasts that the polysilicon output in July will be about 110,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 10%. There are many disturbances in the news, and it is risky to short directly [14] Group 7: Energy Chemicals Crude Oil - The US may impose economic sanctions on Russia if it fails to reach a cease - fire agreement with Ukraine, which intensifies the market's concern about supply tightness. The market is closely watching the August 1 tariff deadline and the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday. Oil prices are expected to be strong and fluctuate in the near future [15] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract stabilized after a downward resonance. The inventory decreased slightly, the trading volume was low, and the overall demand was average. The basis was stable, and the social inventory continued to accumulate slightly. The market believes that this year's demand is slightly lower than expected, and it is necessary to focus on the inventory - reduction situation in the later stage. The short - term absolute price will follow the crude - oil price, but the upside space is limited [15] PX - The tight supply of PX continued. The external price dropped to $851, and the price difference with naphtha remained at $293. The PTA processing fee dropped to a new low in the past six months, which may lead to production cuts of leading devices. There is a risk of downstream negative feedback. PX prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the upside space is limited [15] PTA - The basis remained at around - 5. The port - inventory accumulation slowed down slightly. After the downstream sales soared last week, the downstream inventory decreased significantly, but the profit did not increase substantially. In the later stage, the downstream may face inventory - accumulation pressure and production cuts. The PTA processing fee is low, and the leading devices are reducing production. There is bottom support, and it is necessary to wait for the change in the August stocking rhythm [16][17] Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene - glycol port inventory decreased slightly to 521,000 tons, but the price declined due to sector resonance, especially for coal - based ethylene glycol. There is an expectation of the resumption of domestic shutdown and maintenance devices. The downstream start - up rate remains low, and the terminal orders in the off - season have no significant increase. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the near future [17] Short - Fiber - Crude - oil prices fluctuated moderately, but the short - fiber price declined due to sector resonance. The terminal orders are average, and the start - up rate has bottomed out but has not rebounded significantly. The short - fiber inventory has decreased slightly, and more inventory reduction needs to wait for the peak - season stocking in August. Short - fiber prices are expected to follow the polyester end and may be shorted on rebounds in the medium term [17] Methanol - The MA2509 contract closed at 2434 yuan/ton on July 29, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous day. The position decreased by 40,700 lots to 576,000 lots. The Taicang price fluctuated slightly, and the basis was stable. The methanol price in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia decreased slightly. The coal - price increase supports the methanol price, but the upward movement is restricted by device restart, increased imports, and compressed MTO profit. Methanol prices are expected to return to the oscillation range. It is advisable for conservative investors to wait and see before the Politburo meeting [18] PP - The PP market price partially declined, and the mainstream price of East - China drawn wire was 7100 - 7180 yuan/ton. The polyolefin inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina decreased by 30,000 tons to 780,000 tons on July 29. Affected by multiple policies, there is still some price support, but the supply is loose, the downstream demand is weakened by high prices, and the supply - demand relationship is under pressure. PP prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [19] LLDPE - The polyethylene market price was adjusted, and the standard - product transaction price was 7250 - 7500 yuan/ton. The prices in North, East, and South China decreased by 20, 30, and 50 yuan/ton respectively. The futures contract of polyethylene corrected, and the short - term fluctuation may be affected by policies. Before the Politburo meeting, the price is expected to fluctuate and wait for a direction. In the long term, the oversupply pattern has not changed significantly, and the downstream demand weakens during the price increase, and the import profit increases significantly. The fundamentals may deteriorate more than expected. Polyethylene prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and decline in the long term [19] Group 8: Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The November soybean contract on the CBOT closed at 1008.25, down 3.25 or 0.32% (settlement price 1009.50). Favorable weather in the US soybean - producing areas puts pressure on soybean prices, while soybean oil provides some support. As of July 27, 2025, the US soybean good - and - excellent rate was 70%, better than the market expectation of 67% [20][21] Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal - Sino - US trade talks affect the sentiment of the US soybean market. If the US soybean production increase is stable, it may lead to a short - selling market at the end of the crop - growing season in late August, which will drag down the domestic soybean - meal market. Domestic oil mills have a high and stable start - up rate, and the soybean - meal inventory is gradually accumulating, with a weak basis. The national full - sample oil - mill start - up rate was 64.74% on July 29, up 0.51% from the previous day. It is worth noting that the spot buying at low prices has increased in some areas, and the basis trading volume from May to July next year has increased [21] Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil - Palm oil has a large pressure to realize profits at a high level, the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has shrunk at a low level, and soybean oil has made up for the increase, but there is no fundamental support. The spot trading of soybean oil is light, the terminal consumption is weak, the oil - mill crushing volume has decreased, but the inventory is still accumulating, and the basis quotations in various regions continue to be at the bottom [21] Palm Oil - The strong international crude - oil price, the weakening ringgit, and the rise of US soybean oil may boost the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude - palm - oil futures. The palm - oil market is bullish without signs of correction, but the upward resistance has increased significantly. With the increase of domestic palm - oil imports, the inventory is accumulating in the off - season. The production of Malaysian palm oil is progressing smoothly, the export has declined month - on - month, and the inventory - accumulation expectation is strong. From July 1 - 25, 2025, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 5.52% month - on - month, and the export decreased by 8.53% month - on - month [22]