Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Quotes - Futures Market Quotes: - Plastic 2601: Opened at 7390 yuan/ton, closed at 7381 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (-0.03%), with a trading volume of 283252 lots and an increase of 18065 lots in open interest [5] - Plastic 2605: Opened at 7390 yuan/ton, closed at 7386 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.05%), with a trading volume of 15253 lots and an increase of 754 lots in open interest [5] - Plastic 2509: Opened at 7320 yuan/ton, closed at 7313 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.20%), with a trading volume of 212562 lots and a decrease of 20560 lots in open interest [5] - PP2601: Opened at 7128 yuan/ton, closed at 7107 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.27%), with a trading volume of 329308 lots and an increase of 24541 lots in open interest [5] - PP2605: Opened at 7104 yuan/ton, closed at 7099 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.25%), with a trading volume of 19306 lots and an increase of 4910 lots in open interest [5] - PP2509: Opened at 7085 yuan/ton, closed at 7081 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.24%), with a trading volume of 141836 lots and a decrease of 23955 lots in open interest [5] Group 3: Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: L2509 opened lower, fluctuated up and down during the session, and finally closed at 7313 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.2%). The trading volume was 160,000 lots, and the open interest decreased by 20,560 to 212,562 lots. The main contract of PP switched to 2601, closing at 7107 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.27%), with an increase of 24,500 lots in open interest to 329,300 lots [6] - Supply: The operating load of upstream plants continued to increase. Although the maintenance loss of PP was still at a high level, as the previously shut - down plants were gradually restarted and there were not many newly added maintenance plants, the impact of maintenance decreased. With the approaching of the 900,000 - ton/year capacity expansion plan of Ningbo Daxie Phase II, the incremental pressure on the supply side gradually emerged. For PE, the commissioning of Jilin Petrochemical at the end of July further expanded the production capacity base, and attention was paid to the new capacity addition of ExxonMobil Huizhou in August [6] - Demand: Downstream factories were still affected by the off - season. Coupled with the pressure of losses, the willingness to stock up was low. It was expected that the demand would gradually get out of the off - season in the second half of the month, but currently, downstream enterprises mostly maintained a low - inventory strategy [6] - Cost: The coal price was likely to rise due to coal mine production inspections and the peak summer coal - using season. The oil price might fall again due to the negative impact of OPEC+ production increase and the under - expected performance in the peak season [6] - Outlook: The loose fundamental pattern would continue to restrict the upward space. With the continuous release of new production capacity and the expected stocking demand driven by the "Golden September" peak season in the second half of the month, the polyolefin price might show a trend of bottom - building and then rebounding [6] Group 4: Industry News - Inventory: On August 13, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 795,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (-2.45%) from the previous working day. The inventory at the same time last year was 815,000 tons [7] - PE Market: The PE market prices showed mixed trends. The linear futures opened lower and fluctuated, and the market trading atmosphere changed little. Traders reported prices with narrow fluctuations. The LDPE prices were firm, and downstream buyers purchased according to orders. The LLDPE prices in North China were 7200 - 7420 yuan/ton, in East China were 7240 - 7700 yuan/ton, and in South China were 7380 - 7700 yuan/ton [7] Group 5: Data Overview - Propylene Market: The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily referred to as 6500 - 6530 yuan/ton. The profit margins of downstream products were compressed, and the willingness to accept propylene prices decreased. The demand support for propylene weakened. Production enterprises mostly offered small discounts to promote transactions, and the overall market trading atmosphere was average [13] - PP Market: The PP market was mainly adjusted narrowly. The mainstream prices of North China drawn wire were 6930 - 7090 yuan/ton, in East China were 7000 - 7140 yuan/ton, and in South China were 6950 - 7150 yuan/ton [13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread; Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core View - PE's supply is recovering with the restart of previously shut - down plants and new capacity output, while PP's current low overall operating rate will face greater supply - side pressure in the future. Upstream and mid - stream inventories of polyolefins are accumulating, cost - side support is weak, and downstream demand is gradually transitioning to the peak season with a positive long - term outlook [2] 3. Summary by Directory I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Figures include the trend of the plastic futures main contract, LL East China - main contract basis, the trend of the polypropylene futures main contract, and PP East China - main contract basis [8][11] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - Figures cover LL production profit (crude oil - based), PE operating rate, PE weekly output, PE maintenance loss, PP production profit (crude oil - based), PP production profit (PDH - based), PP operating rate, PP weekly output, PP maintenance loss, and PDH - based PP capacity utilization [19][14][18] III. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Figures involve HD injection molding - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt co - polymer - drawn wire East China, and PP homopolymer injection molding - drawn wire East China [25][33][34] IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - Figures include LL import profit, LL US Gulf FOB - China CFR, LL Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, LL Europe FD - China CFR, PP import profit, PP export profit (to Southeast Asia), PP homopolymer injection molding US Gulf FOB - China CFR, PP homopolymer injection molding Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, PP homopolymer injection molding Northwest Europe FOB - China CFR, and LL export profit [38][43][50] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - Figures are about PE downstream agricultural film operating rate, PE downstream packaging film operating rate, PE downstream stretch film - LL - 2300, PP downstream woven fabric operating rate, PP downstream BOPP film operating rate, PP downstream injection molding operating rate, PP downstream woven fabric production profit margin, and PP downstream BOPP production profit margin [60][59][68] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - Figures contain PE oil - based enterprise inventory, PE coal - chemical enterprise inventory, PE trader inventory, PE port inventory, PP oil - based enterprise inventory, PP coal - chemical enterprise inventory, PP trader inventory, and PP port inventory [70][73][79] 4. Market Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 7314 yuan/ton (+24), PP main contract at 7095 yuan/ton (+33), LL North China spot at 7220 yuan/ton (+0), LL East China spot at 7280 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot at 7040 yuan/ton (+0), LL North China basis at - 94 yuan/ton (-24), LL East China basis at - 34 yuan/ton (-24), PP East China basis at - 55 yuan/ton (-33) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate was 84.1% (+3.0%), PP operating rate was 77.3% (+0.4%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 373.7 yuan/ton (-12.5), PP oil - based production profit was - 106.3 yuan/ton (-12.5), PDH - based PP production profit was 208.1 yuan/ton (-47.6) [1] - **Import and Export**: LL import profit was - 71.4 yuan/ton (-0.2), PP import profit was - 505.8 yuan/ton (-0.2), PP export profit was 30.2 US dollars/ton (+0.0) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 13.1% (+0.4%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 49.3% (+0.6%), PP downstream woven fabric operating rate was 41.1% (+0.0%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 60.8% (+0.0%) [1]

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: August 7, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The futures market opened higher and fluctuated upwards, boosting market sentiment. Spot prices fluctuated slightly, and downstream buyers replenished stocks according to orders. However, the supply pressure continued, and new PE and PP production facilities were planned to be put into operation in the third quarter. The demand was weak and needed improvement, and the downstream operating load remained low overall. It was expected that the demand would gradually emerge from the off - season in the second half of the month, but the downstream enterprises mainly maintained a low - inventory strategy, and the driving force for active replenishment was limited. The policy - driven market led the polyolefins to follow, but the loose fundamental pattern would continue to restrict their upward space. After the digestion of the anti - involution sentiment, the polyolefins would return to a weak and volatile operation [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Futures Market**: The L2509 contract of linear low - density polyethylene (LLDPE) opened higher, fluctuated upwards during the session, and finally closed at 7,321 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton (0.45%). The trading volume was 167,000 lots, and the open interest decreased by 10,020 to 291,496 lots. The PP main contract closed at 7,078 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan (0.17%), and the open interest decreased by 7,127 to 251,400 lots [6] - **Supply**: In the third quarter, new PE production facilities of Jilin Petrochemical, ExxonMobil Huizhou, and Guangxi Petrochemical were planned to be put into operation. The second - phase project of Ningbo Daxie with a total annual production capacity of 900,000 tons was expected to be launched, which would have a significant impact on the supply side [6] - **Demand**: The downstream operating load remained low overall. Although the operating rate of the agricultural film industry rebounded from a low level, the demand followed up slowly. The orders in the construction field were mediocre, and the operating rates of the pipe and plastic weaving industries were at historical lows in the same period. The demand for daily - use injection - molded products increased slightly month - on - month [6] 2. Industry News - **Inventory**: On August 6, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 785,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (2.48%) from the previous working day. The inventory in the same period last year was 810,000 tons [7] - **PE Market**: The PE market prices partially increased. The LLDPE prices in North China were in the range of 7,170 - 7,450 yuan/ton, in East China 7,230 - 7,650 yuan/ton, and in South China 7,320 - 7,650 yuan/ton [7] - **Propylene Market**: The propylene market price in Shandong increased significantly. As of the 12 - o'clock closing, the reference price was 6,250 - 6,270 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan/ton from the previous day. The temporary shutdown of some supply facilities boosted the operators' sentiment, and enterprises mainly raised their offers. The downstream followed up actively, the premium range of actual orders expanded, and the trading center shifted significantly upwards [7] - **PP Market**: The PP market was stable with a slight upward trend, and some prices increased by 20 - 30 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of drawn PP in North China were in the range of 6,940 - 7,080 yuan/ton, in East China 7,000 - 7,130 yuan/ton, and in South China 6,960 - 7,150 yuan/ton [7] 3. Data Overview - The report presented multiple charts, including the LLDPE basis, PP basis, LLDPE - PP price spread, crude oil futures main - contract settlement price, inventory of two major oil companies, and the year - on - year increase or decrease rate of the two - oil inventory, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][16][17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly. The spot prices of linear LL and拉丝 PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. The market showed a divergence this week after a rebound last week, and the spot market of polyolefins is still mainly driven by supply and demand. Summer maintenance is in balance, and attention should be paid to the process of fundamental repair. Recently, supply and demand tend to gradually digest the inventory accumulated in the second quarter [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7400, 7395, and 7335 yuan/ton respectively, with declines of -104, -98, and -121 yuan/ton and drops of -1.39%, -1.31%, and -1.62% respectively. The trading volumes were 114997, 1587, and 388896, and the open interests were 157846, 7336, and 346401, with changes of 5906, 528, and -20147 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 5, 60, and -65 respectively [2] - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7136, 7137, and 7130 yuan/ton respectively, with declines of -100, -90, and -91 yuan/ton and drops of -1.38%, -1.25%, and -1.26% respectively. The trading volumes were 120821, 2000, and 344922, and the open interests were 165953, 9581, and 325802, with changes of -3873, -366, and -29838 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -1, 7, and -6 respectively [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and plastic film were 2435 yuan/ton, 6220 yuan/ton, 544 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6850 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Spot Market**: The current prices of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7250 - 7650, 7200 - 7450, and 7400 - 7600 yuan/ton respectively; the current prices of PP in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7050 - 7150, 7000 - 7150, and 7000 - 7200 yuan/ton respectively [2] News - On Tuesday (July 29), the settlement price of West Texas Light Crude Oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $69.21 per barrel, up $2.50 or 3.75% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $66.53 - $69.76. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $72.51 per barrel, up $2.47 or 3.53% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $69.86 - $73.08 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures declined and traded sideways overnight. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP remained stable for both Sinopec and PetroChina. Fundamentally, due to the clearer macro - situation of anti - involution in China, the market rebounded last week. However, the spot market of polyolefins is still mainly driven by supply - demand factors, with summer maintenance in balance. Attention should be paid to the process of fundamental repair [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Change**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7400, 7395, and 7335 respectively, down 104, 98, and 121 from two days ago, with declines of - 1.39%, - 1.31%, and - 1.62%. For PP, the corresponding closing prices were 7136, 7137, and 7130, down 100, 90, and 91, with declines of - 1.38%, - 1.25%, and - 1.26% [2] - **Volume and Open Interest**: LL's trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 114997, 1587, and 388896, with open interests of 157846, 7336, and 346401, and open interest changes of 5906, 528, and - 20147. PP's trading volumes were 120821, 2000, and 344922, with open interests of 165953, 9581, and 325802, and open interest changes of - 3873, - 366, and - 29838 [2] - **Spread**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 5, 60, and - 65, compared to previous values of 11, 37, and - 48. For PP, the current spreads were - 1, 7, and - 6, compared to previous values of 9, 6, and - 15 [2] Raw Material and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2406 yuan/ton, 6195 yuan/ton, 539 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6930 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous values of 2519 yuan/ton, 6240 yuan/ton, 547 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6930 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2] - **Mid - stream Spot**: The current price ranges of LL in East China, North China, and South China markets were 7250 - 7650, 7200 - 7450, and 7400 - 7550. For PP, the ranges were 7050 - 7150, 7000 - 7150, and 7000 - 7200. Most of the previous values were the same, except for the North China LL market which also had a previous range of 8100 - 8250 [2] News - On Monday (July 28), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $66.71 per barrel, up $1.55 or 2.38% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.05 - $67.14. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $70.04 per barrel, up $1.60 or 2.34% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $68.35 - $70.45 [2]

Report Title - Polyolefin Weekly Report, dated July 11, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, L09 rose 0.12% to close at 7291, with a total position reduction of about 8100 lots; PP09 fell 0.13% to close at 7069, with a total position reduction of about 21000 lots. Technically, the recent main contracts of L and PP are running near the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral technical trend [5]. - The main position indicator among Dayue's five major indicators shows that the net positions of high - winning - rate seats for L and PP are both bearish recently [5]. - The basis of the L main contract is - 11, and that of the PP main contract is 111, with the discount of the futures price narrowing [5]. - Fundamentally, in June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months; the Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than that in May, and the same as in April, returning above the critical point. On July 5, OPEC issued an increase statement, increasing production for the fourth consecutive month [5]. - In terms of supply and demand, it is the off - season for PE agricultural films, and the downstream of packaging films remains weak. Most enterprises have reduced their loads, and the overall downstream demand is weak. There is still pressure from new capacity coming into production in the future. It is also the off - season for PP downstream demand, and the demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc. is weak. Internationally, attention should be paid to the subsequent negotiation situation between China and the United States. The inventory of the polyolefin industry chain is moderately high. This week, the main contracts of L and PP are expected to fluctuate [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance - **Futures Price Changes**: L01 rose 0.48%, L05 rose 0.29%, L09 rose 0.12%; PP01 rose 0.17%, PP05 rose 0.07%, PP09 fell 0.13% [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: For PE, the L delivery product price decreased by 50, PE comprehensive factory inventory increased by 54, and PE social inventory increased by 10; for PP, the PP delivery product price decreased by 70, PP comprehensive factory inventory increased by 11, and PP social inventory increased by 9 [6]. - **Profit Changes**: L oil - based production profit decreased by 46, L coal - based production profit decreased by 30; PP oil - based production profit decreased by 19, PP coal - based production profit increased by 21, and PDH profit decreased by 134 [6] 2. Charts - **Futures - Spot Price and Basis**: Charts show the futures - spot prices and basis of L and PP from 2023 to 2025 [9][12] - **Warehouse Receipts**: A chart shows the warehouse receipts of L and PP from 2023 to 2025 [15] - **Inventory**: Multiple charts show the comprehensive inventory, social inventory of PE and PP over time [21][24][27][30] - **Operating Rates**: Charts show the operating rates of PE and PP from January to December [33][36] - **Profits**: Charts show the production cash flows of PE (coal - chemical and oil - based) and PP (coal - chemical, oil - based, and PDH) from 2023 to 2025 [39][42] - **External Prices**: Charts show the internal - external price differences of polyolefins, and the US dollar prices of PE and PP over time [45][48][51] - **Downstream**: Charts show the average operating rates of PE and PP downstream industries from January to December [54][57] 3. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the capacity, production, net imports, apparent consumption, etc. of polyethylene are presented, with the capacity expected to reach 4319.5 in 2025E, a growth rate of 20.5% [17] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the capacity, production, net imports, apparent consumption, etc. of polypropylene are presented, with the capacity expected to reach 4906 in 2025E, a growth rate of 11.0% [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, L09 fell 0.27% to close at 7282, with a total position reduction of about 19,900 lots. PP09 fell 0.35% to close at 7078, with a total position reduction of about 1,200 lots. Technically, the recent main contracts of L and PP are running near the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral technical trend. The main position in Dayue's five major indicators shows that the net positions of high - winning - rate seats for L and PP are both bearish recently. The basis of the L main contract is 48, and that of the PP main contract is 172, with the futures price at a discount to the spot price. [5] - From a fundamental perspective, in June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, staying in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May and the same as in April, returning above the critical point. On July 5, OPEC issued an increase production statement, increasing production for the fourth consecutive month. In terms of supply and demand, it is the off - season for PE agricultural films, and the downstream of packaging films remains weak. Most enterprises have reduced their loads, and the overall downstream demand is weak. There is still pressure from the commissioning of new production capacity in the future. It is also the off - season for PP downstream demand, and the demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc. is weak. Recently, there have been signs of relaxation in Sino - US exchanges, and attention should be paid to the negotiation situation. The inventory in the polyolefin industry chain is neutral. It is expected that the main contracts of L and PP will fluctuate this week. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Position Changes**: L09 fell 0.27% to 7282 with a position reduction of about 19,900 lots; PP09 fell 0.35% to 7078 with a position reduction of about 1,200 lots. Other contracts also had corresponding price and position changes. For example, L01 decreased by 0.03% to 7243, and PP05 increased by 0.18% to 7032. [5][6] - **Technical and Position Analysis**: The main contracts of L and PP are running near the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral technical trend. The net positions of high - winning - rate seats for L and PP are both bearish recently. [5] - **Basis Analysis**: The basis of the L main contract is 48, and that of the PP main contract is 172, indicating that the futures price is at a discount to the spot price. [5] 3.2 Spot and Inventory - **Spot Price Changes**: The prices of L and PP delivery products and social inventories have changed. For example, the price of L delivery products increased by 10 to 7330, and the price of PP delivery products remained unchanged at 7250. [6] - **Inventory Changes**: PE comprehensive factory inventory decreased by 0.6 to 50.0, and PE social inventory increased by 42 to 50.7; PP comprehensive factory inventory decreased by 15 to 57.0, and PP social inventory increased by 19 to 25.2. [6] 3.3 Production Profit - **Profit Changes**: The production profits of L and PP from different sources (oil - based, coal - based, PDH) have changed. For example, L oil - based production profit decreased by 242 to - 219, and PP PDH production profit increased by 247 to - 355. [6] 3.4 Supply and Demand Balance - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and other indicators of polyethylene have changed. The production capacity has been increasing year by year, with growth rates ranging from 5.1% to 20.5%. The import dependence has shown a downward trend, from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024. [16] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, etc. of polypropylene have also changed. The production capacity has been increasing, with growth rates between 8.9% and 19.0%. The import dependence has decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024. [18] 3.5 Downstream Market - **PE Downstream**: The average starting rate of PE downstream shows certain fluctuations throughout the year, reflecting the changing demand in the PE downstream market. [53] - **PP Downstream**: The average starting rate of PP downstream also fluctuates, indicating the demand situation in the PP downstream market. [56] 3.6 Other Market Indicators - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of L and PP warehouse receipts shows changes over time, which can reflect the inventory and market supply and demand situation to some extent. [14] - **Opening Rates**: The opening rates of PE and PP production show different trends throughout the year, which are related to production capacity utilization and market supply. [32][35] - **Production Cash Flows**: The production cash flows of PE and PP from different sources (coal - based, oil - based, PDH) show fluctuations over time, reflecting the profitability of different production methods. [38][41] - **External Market Prices**: The internal - external price differences of polyolefins and the US - dollar prices of PE and PP in the external market show corresponding changes, which are affected by international market supply and demand and exchange rates. [44][47][50]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter-period: None [3] Core View of the Report - The macroeconomic boost continues, the commodity atmosphere is slightly pushed up, international oil prices and propane prices have slightly increased, and the cost support for polyolefins has strengthened [2] - Some previously overhauled plants have restarted, leading to higher capacity utilization and increased domestic supply, with Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's 500,000-ton/year PP Line 4 successfully put into production [2] - The terminal industry is still in the off-season, with the agricultural film industry operating at a low level and other terminal industries maintaining weak operations. There are no signs of improvement in downstream demand, and factory operations remain at a low level, intensifying the expected supply-demand contradiction [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7284元/吨（-4），PP主力合约收盘价为7074元/吨（+2），LL华北现货为7190元/吨（+20），LL华东现货为7300元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为7120元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-94元/吨（+24），LL华东基差为16元/吨（+4），PP华东基差为46元/吨（-2） [1] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为79.5%（+3.0%），PP开工率为77.4%（-1.9%） [1] - PE油制生产利润为212.3元/吨（-154.6），PP油制生产利润为-207.7元/吨（-154.6），PDH制PP生产利润为243.3元/吨（-10.4） [1] III. Polyolefin Non-standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为-99.6元/吨（-1.2），PP进口利润为-538.3元/吨（-1.3），PP出口利润为28.3美元/吨（+0.2） [1] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为12.1%（-0.3%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.4%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率为43.2%（-0.4%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.4%（+0.0%） [1] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - No specific data provided in the given text

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the polyolefin industry dated June 25, 2025 [1] Group 2: Research Team - The energy and chemical research team includes Peng Jinglin (polyolefins), Li Jie (crude oil and fuel oil), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (urea, industrial silicon), Liu Youran (pulp), and Feng Zeren (glass and soda ash) [2] Group 3: Futures Market Quotes - In the futures market, plastics and PP contracts generally declined. For example, plastic 2601 closed at 7199 yuan/ton, down 158 yuan (-2.15%); plastic 2605 closed at 7182 yuan/ton, down 166 yuan (-2.26%); plastic 2509 closed at 7250 yuan/ton, down 172 yuan (-2.32%); PP2601 closed at 7027 yuan/ton, down 166 yuan (-2.31%); PP2605 closed at 7006 yuan/ton, down 179 yuan (-2.49%); PP2509 closed at 7074 yuan/ton, down 163 yuan (-2.25%) [3] Group 4: Market Review and Outlook - The main plastic contract L2509 opened low, fluctuated downward during the session, and closed down at 7250 yuan/ton, down 172 yuan (-2.32%), with a trading volume of 595,000 lots and a decrease in open interest by 3309 to 474,026 lots. The main PP contract closed at 7074 yuan/ton, down 163 yuan (-2.25%), with a decrease in open interest by 40,075 lots to 448,435 lots. The weak futures market dampened market trading sentiment. On the supply side, there were few new maintenance plans, and the loss of production due to plant maintenance decreased. The 500,000 - ton/year fourth - line of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's PP project was planned to be put into operation on June 19, and domestic supply showed an increasing trend. The downstream industry has entered the traditional off - season, with significantly insufficient new orders. Affected by high - temperature and rainy weather, the construction progress of terminal projects slowed down. With high raw material prices and weak downstream industry profits, the enthusiasm for raw material procurement was difficult to significantly improve. The basis of plastic and PP slightly rebounded but remained low. The easing of the Middle East conflict led to a decline in crude oil premiums, and polyolefins prices fell from high levels. Attention should be paid to changes in cost - side drivers [4] Group 5: Industry News - On June 24, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 780,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons (-3.70%) from the previous working day, compared with 745,000 tons in the same period last year. PE market prices partially declined. In North China, some linear PE prices fell by 20 - 150 yuan/ton, some high - pressure PE prices fell by 50 - 200 yuan/ton, and some low - pressure PE prices fell by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. In East China, some high - pressure PE prices fell by 50 - 200 yuan/ton, some low - pressure PE prices fell by 20 - 100 yuan/ton, and some linear PE prices fell by 20 - 150 yuan/ton. In South China, some linear and low - pressure PE prices fell by 20 - 100 yuan/ton, and some high - pressure PE prices fell by 50 - 200 yuan/ton. The price of LLDPE in North China was 7300 - 7550 yuan/ton, in East China was 7400 - 7800 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7450 - 7750 yuan/ton. PP market prices decreased by 30 - 100 yuan/ton. The volatile decline of futures prices suppressed the trading atmosphere in the market. Most traders' quotes declined, with some resources dropping significantly by 80 - 100 yuan/ton. Downstream orders were poor, and after some previous purchases, most downstream enterprises maintained a cautious wait - and - see attitude, and overall trading was relatively poor. The mainstream price of North China drawn PP in the morning was 7080 - 7230 yuan/ton, in East China was 7130 - 7280 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7160 - 7300 yuan/ton [5]

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Weekly Report - Date: June 20, 2025 - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, L09 rose 2.12% to close at 7415, with a total position reduction of about 7300 lots; PP09 rose 2.11% to close at 7242, with a total position increase of about 53000 lots. Technically, the recent main contracts of L and PP are running above the 20-day moving average, showing a bullish technical trend [5]. - The main position indicator in Dayue's five major indicators shows that the net positions of high - winning - rate seats for L and PP are both bearish recently [5]. - The basis of the L main contract is 45, and that of the PP main contract is 38, with the discount of the futures price narrowing [5]. - Fundamentally, in May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, while the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April, the first contraction since October last year. On June 21, the US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities escalated the Middle East geopolitical crisis, and crude oil is expected to strengthen, which is positive for the cost side. In terms of supply and demand, it is the off - season for PE agricultural films, the demand for packaging films is weakening, most enterprises are reducing their loads, and the overall downstream demand is weak. There is still pressure from new capacity coming on stream in the future. It is also the off - season for PP downstream demand, and the demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc. is weak. The inventory of the polyolefin industry chain is neutral. This week, the main contracts of L and PP are expected to fluctuate [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Prices and Changes**: L01 rose 1.61% to 7347, L05 rose 1.58% to 7334, L09 rose 2.12% to 7415; PP01 rose 2.13% to 7188, PP05 rose 2.35% to 7185, PP09 rose 2.11% to 7242 [6]. - **Spot Prices and Changes**: The price of L delivery products increased by 200 to 7460, and the price of PP delivery products increased by 30 to 7280 [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the L main contract is 45, and that of the PP main contract is 38, with the discount of the futures price narrowing [5] 3.2 Inventory - **Warehouse Receipts**: The report provides a chart of L and PP warehouse receipts, but specific data is not further elaborated [15] - **Inventory Data**: PE comprehensive factory inventory is 556 (a decrease of 13), PE social inventory is 559 (a decrease of 27), PP comprehensive factory inventory is 608 (an increase of 26), and PP social inventory is 245 (an increase of 9) [6] 3.3 Supply - Demand Balance - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, with the import dependence gradually decreasing. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [17] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend, with the import dependence gradually decreasing. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [19] 3.4 Other Indicators - **开工率**: The report provides charts of PE and PP开工 rates, but specific data is not further elaborated [33][36] - **Profit**: The report provides charts of PE and PP production cash flows, including coal - chemical, oil - based, and PDH production methods, but specific data is not further elaborated [39][41] - **External Market Prices**: The report provides charts of polyolefin internal - external price differences, as well as the US dollar prices of PE and PP, but specific data is not further elaborated [44][47][50] - **Downstream**: The report provides charts of the average downstream开工 rates of PE and PP, but specific data is not further elaborated [53][56]