类别 宏观贵金属周报 日期 2025 年 11 月 21 日 宏观金融研究团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 020-38909340 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 美联储 12 月会议或暂停降息 请阅读正文后的声明 周度报告 一、宏观环境评述 1.1 经济：中国财政收入加快修复 2025 年 1-10 月份中国一般公共预算收入累积同比增长 0.82%，增速较 1-9 的 0.5%进一步提升，财政收入加快修复为中国财政政策继续发挥稳增长作用提供了 必要条件。财政收入改善的影响因素，首先是在投资和消费支持政策以及反内卷 政策指引下，今年来企业利润状况改善；其次是 2026 年中国股票市场和贵金属市 场表现活跃，相关税收显著增长；最后是税务部门加强税收征缴管理工作 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government has approved its largest supplementary budget since the COVID-19 pandemic, amounting to 17.7 trillion yen (approximately 112 billion USD), aimed at addressing inflation and responding to voter demands, despite potential concerns regarding Japan's fiscal health [1][4]. Group 1: Stimulus Plan Details - The total scale of the stimulus plan reaches 21.3 trillion yen (approximately 135.4 billion USD), with a significant focus on price relief measures [1][4]. - Key components include 11.7 trillion yen allocated for price response, which involves direct cash subsidies to households and children, as well as support for local regions [4]. - Specific measures include 7,000 yen subsidies for gas and electricity bills per household, a one-time cash payment of 20,000 yen per child, and 2 trillion yen for local aid [4]. Group 2: Economic Impact and Inflation - The measures are expected to lower overall inflation indicators by an average of 0.7 percentage points between February and April of the following year [5]. - Japan's core consumer price index has remained above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for 43 consecutive months, marking the longest streak since 1992 [4]. Group 3: Defense and Crisis Management - The plan includes 1.7 trillion yen for enhancing national defense and diplomatic capabilities, with 1.1 trillion yen aimed at increasing defense spending to 2% of GDP [5]. - An additional 700 billion yen is reserved for emergency responses to natural disasters and other unexpected events [5]. Group 4: Debt and Fiscal Sustainability - Concerns over rising debt levels have led to increased yields on Japanese government bonds, with the potential for bond issuance to exceed last year's levels [6]. - The government anticipates that the total amount of new bond issuance this fiscal year will be lower than the previous year's 42.1 trillion yen, with a reduction of about 20% compared to last year [6][7]. Group 5: Economic Growth Projections - The stimulus plan is projected to contribute to an average annual GDP growth of approximately 1.4 percentage points over three years [7]. - The Japanese economy experienced its first contraction in six quarters during the July-September period, partly due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies [7].

新华财经北京11月20日电在经济数据疲软与超大规模财政刺激预期的双重冲击下，日本金融市场近期剧 烈波动。日内盘中，10年期日本国债收益率攀升至1.80%上方，创下自2008年6月全球金融危机以来的 最高水平；40年期收益率飙升至3.747%的历史峰值，20年期收益率触及2.853%，至1999年以来新高。 日本内阁官房长官木原稔亦于稍早表态称，政府"正密切关注外汇市场，包括投机性在内的过度且无序 的波动"，并对近期汇率走势"感到担忧"，重申汇市应稳定反映经济基本面。 长期国债收益率的飙升还反映出结构性压力：通胀预期回升、货币政策正常化推进，以及传统买家（如 银行和保险公司）需求疲软。数据显示，今年以来30年期日债收益率已累计上涨逾100个基点，而同期 美国30年期国债收益率却有所回落，凸显日本债市的独特脆弱性。 市场正密切关注将于近期正式公布的补充预算细节及下周40年期国债标售结果，以评估财政风险溢价是 否将进一步扩大。 （文章来源：新华财经） 日本内阁府于11月17日公布的初步数据显示，2025年第三季度实际GDP环比下降0.4%，按年率计算下 降1.8%，为2024年第一季度以来首次负增长，亦终结了连续六 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the fourth China-Germany high-level financial dialogue is the establishment of 27 consensus points aimed at enhancing macroeconomic policy coordination and financial cooperation between the two countries [1][2] - Both parties reaffirmed the importance of the dialogue mechanism as a platform for bilateral communication and policy coordination on strategic, comprehensive, and long-term issues in the financial sector [1] - The consensus emphasizes the commitment to uphold international and multilateral cooperation, opposing unilateralism and trade protectionism, and maintaining a multilateral trading system centered on the World Trade Organization [1][2] Group 2 - The dialogue includes agreements to strengthen regulatory cooperation in the banking and insurance sectors, with Germany welcoming China's role in global commodity trading, particularly through the Shanghai Gold Exchange [2] - China encourages qualified German institutional investors to participate actively in the Chinese interbank market, while both sides promote financial technology cooperation between their respective financial institutions [2] - The first China-Germany high-level financial dialogue took place in 2015, resulting in 21 consensus points, with subsequent dialogues in 2019 and 2023 yielding multiple mutually beneficial outcomes [2]

Core Viewpoint - The GBP/USD exchange rate is currently under pressure due to internal economic challenges in the UK and a weaker USD, trading around 1.3161. The combination of economic weaknesses and fiscal uncertainties in the UK limits the potential for a rebound against the USD, resulting in a range-bound trading scenario with support below and resistance above [1]. Economic Fundamentals - The UK economy faces multiple concerns, including a downgrade in productivity forecasts by the Office for Budget Responsibility and inflation data falling short of expectations, indicating insufficient recovery momentum and low business investment willingness [1]. - A fiscal gap of £20 billion highlights the government's dilemma between increasing spending to support growth and controlling debt risks, raising market concerns about the sustainability of UK fiscal policy, which has become a significant factor in GBP selling pressure [1]. Monetary Policy - The Bank of England maintains high interest rates to curb inflation; however, the risk of economic downturn leads to market expectations that rate cuts may occur sooner than those by the Federal Reserve, narrowing the interest rate differential and diminishing the attractiveness of the GBP [1]. Technical Analysis - The GBP/USD is oscillating within the 1.3080-1.3220 range, with the 30-day moving average around 1.3100 indicating a stalemate between bulls and bears. Key support is at 1.3080, with potential declines to 1.3000 and 1.2950 if broken, while resistance is focused at 1.3220, with a breakthrough potentially leading to levels of 1.3300-1.3350 [2]. - Indicators show a narrowing of MACD green bars and a KDJ crossover, suggesting reduced bearish momentum but limited rebound potential. Upcoming economic data from both the UK and the US will be crucial for determining the direction of the GBP [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government will maintain an active fiscal policy during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period to stabilize the economy and ensure people's livelihoods, emphasizing the need for sufficient policy strength [2][3]. Fiscal Policy Strategy - The fiscal policy will focus on counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, determining deficit rates and debt levels based on changing circumstances, and utilizing various tools such as budgets, taxes, government bonds, and transfer payments [2][3]. - The emphasis will shift from merely focusing on deficit rates to increasing expenditure growth, breaking the 3% deficit rate constraint to ensure necessary spending levels [3][5]. Economic Context - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is characterized by complex changes in both domestic and international environments, including external instability and internal economic pressures [3]. - Despite challenges, China's economic fundamentals remain strong, with significant potential for long-term growth, although risks in certain sectors have not yet cleared [3]. Budget Expenditure Trends - National general public budget expenditure growth rates from 2020 to 2024 are projected at 2.8%, 0.3%, 6.1%, 5.4%, and 3.6%, with a growth rate of 3.1% in the first three quarters of 2025 [4]. - The total budget for 2025 is expected to approach 30 trillion yuan [5]. Debt and Fiscal Space - China's government debt ratio is projected to be 68.7% in 2024, significantly lower than that of major economies and emerging markets, indicating substantial room for further borrowing [5]. - The central government has considerable borrowing and deficit space, allowing for future fiscal policy initiatives [5]. Targeted Support Areas - The fiscal policy will prioritize high-quality development, focusing on key areas such as modern industrial systems, technology, education, social security, agriculture, and environmental protection [5][6]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggests enhancing support for major national strategic tasks and basic livelihood financing, increasing the proportion of government investment in public services, and supporting high-tech enterprises [5][6]. Policy Coordination - There will be an emphasis on policy coordination, ensuring that fiscal policies align with monetary, industrial, and regional policies to create a synergistic effect for high-quality development [6].

英国政府加税计划"急转弯"加剧市场不确定性 中新社伦敦11月14日电 (欧阳开宇 刘施岑)在即将公布年度预算案前夕，英国政府突然撤回原拟提升所 得税的计划，此临时调整令投资者对未来财政路径与经济前景更加谨慎。 英国财政大臣里夫斯14日确认，政府不会在本轮预算案中实施提高所得税税率的措施。此前，外界普遍 预期新政府为弥补财政缺口，可能在预算案中提出增税方案。里夫斯表示，政府在与多部门协商后，决 定"采取更稳妥的方式"，并将在预算案中推出"更公平、更可持续"的替代措施，以确保经济增长与财政 责任能够并行。 消息引发金融市场波动。分析人士指出，英国政府政策信号反复加剧市场不确定性，使投资者担心财政 整固措施可能被进一步推迟，从而加重英国已处高位的债务压力。 根据英国官方与独立机构估算，政府面临约300亿英镑(约2801亿元人民币)的预算缺口。经济学者认 为，撤回增税计划后，政府可能寻求削减支出、调整企业税制或出售国有资产等方式填补缺口，但这些 做法均存在政治与操作层面阻力。市场普遍关心预算案将提出何种组合政策，以保持财政可持续性，同 时避免打压本已疲弱的经济增长。 当前，英国经济面临多重挑战，包括投资低迷、生产率增 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the role of proactive fiscal policy in promoting economic growth, structural adjustment, and risk prevention while ensuring fiscal sustainability [1][3]. Fiscal Policy and Economic Development - Fiscal policy will focus on expanding domestic demand, supporting high-level technological self-reliance, and improving people's livelihoods during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [2][4]. - The government aims to enhance fiscal sustainability while maintaining an active fiscal stance, balancing development and security, efficiency and equity, and short-term and long-term goals [1][3]. Major Tasks and Strategic Goals - Key tasks include building a modern industrial system, accelerating technological self-reliance, optimizing productivity layout, and promoting green transformation [3][4]. - Significant public investment is required for these tasks, which often have strong externalities and long return cycles, necessitating government leadership [3]. Technological Modernization and Support - The plan highlights the importance of fiscal support for technological modernization, focusing on basic research and key core technology breakthroughs [4]. - The strategy includes using various fiscal tools to optimize traditional industries and foster emerging sectors [4][5]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The emphasis is on shifting fiscal support from supply-side policies to demand-side initiatives, enhancing social welfare for households [4][5]. - The goal is to create a dynamic balance where new demand leads to new supply and vice versa, supporting a new development pattern [5]. Fiscal Sustainability and Taxation - The plan calls for enhancing fiscal sustainability through structural adjustments in tax policies, including improving local tax systems and maintaining reasonable macro tax burdens [7][8]. - Experts suggest optimizing existing tax reduction policies for precision and efficiency, particularly for technology innovation and small enterprises [7]. Local Government Debt Management - The government aims to prevent and mitigate local government debt risks by implementing a comprehensive debt management strategy and ensuring no new hidden debts are created [8]. - A unified long-term regulatory system for local government debt is to be established, with strict accountability for violations [8].

Core Points - South Africa's Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana announced a downward revision of the country's 2025 economic growth forecast to 1.2%, influenced by domestic and international factors such as trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties [1] - The new inflation target has been set at 3% with a 1% fluctuation range, replacing the previous target of 3% to 6%, to better respond to unexpected inflation shocks [1] - The government aims to stabilize public debt at 77.9% of GDP by the 2025/26 fiscal year, marking the first time since the 2008 financial crisis that public debt as a percentage of GDP will not increase [1] Economic Strategy - Structural reforms, particularly in the energy and logistics sectors, are deemed crucial for enhancing economic growth [2] - The strategy for achieving faster growth and healthier finances is based on four pillars: maintaining macroeconomic stability, implementing structural reforms, enhancing national capacity, and supporting infrastructure development [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of proactive fiscal policy in promoting economic balance and structural optimization during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, highlighting the need for sustainable fiscal practices and effective governance [1][4]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Direction - The "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests a continuation of proactive fiscal policies to support major national strategic tasks and ensure basic livelihood [1][2]. - Experts advocate for an increase in fiscal spending, optimization of expenditure schedules, and innovation in policy tools to stimulate total demand and stabilize economic growth expectations [2][3]. Group 2: Investment and Spending Efficiency - The article stresses the need to enhance the effectiveness of fiscal policies and improve the efficiency of fund utilization by optimizing the fiscal expenditure structure [2][3]. - It is recommended to focus fiscal resources on public sectors and areas with high social benefits, such as healthcare, education, and digital economy infrastructure [3][4]. Group 3: Sustainable Fiscal Practices - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is seen as crucial for achieving socialist modernization, necessitating a deeper reform of the fiscal and tax system to enhance sustainability [4][5]. - Experts suggest implementing zero-based budgeting reforms to improve the scientific and precise nature of budget preparation, thereby increasing budget fund efficiency [5].