风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 上周金价受美联储官员鹰派言论及经济数据韧性影响短期回调，但地缘与政治风险仍提供强力支撑。 鲍威尔及卡什卡利等官员暗示降息不具紧迫性，叠加初请失业金人数下降，压制了黄金的金融属性，实 际流动性环境依然宽松。此外，地缘风险显著升级，特朗普针对伊朗的关税威胁、格陵兰岛及委内瑞拉 局势，使得避险情绪持续升温，短线波动不改中线看多逻辑。长期来看，去美元化与债务担忧夯实黄金 长期配置基础。 二季度全球美元储备比例持续下降，央行购金趋势延续，叠加美国财政赤字不断增 长，黄金货币属性凸显。鉴于下一任美联储主席预期偏鸽，货币宽松预期无法证伪；建议密切关注非农 数据及美联储政策预期变化，把握配置机会。 1月19日，沪深两市低开震荡，黄金现货再度上涨，截至9点40分，金ETF(159834.SZ)涨1.17%。 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level. The market has digested the impact of Trump's tariff increase on 8 European countries, and the risk - aversion sentiment has slightly recovered. Consumption feedback is negative, with the start - up of primary enterprises under pressure and some planning to have early holidays. The spot premium has declined, while refineries are resuming production and zinc ingot exports are closed, leading to an increase in supply and an expected rise in inventory. However, in the short term, the market is dominated by funds, and the market sentiment switches rapidly, amplifying the zinc price fluctuations. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy [3][10]. 3. Summary by Directory Transaction Data - From January 9th to January 16th, the SHFE zinc price rose from 23,970 yuan/ton to 24,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 780 yuan/ton; the LME zinc price rose from 3149 dollars/ton to 3207.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 58.5 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio increased from 7.61 to 7.72. The SHFE inventory increased by 2459 tons to 76311 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 925 tons to 106,525 tons, and the social inventory decreased slightly from 11.85 to 11.84 million tons. The spot premium decreased from 100 yuan/ton to 50 yuan/ton [4]. Market Review - The main contract of SHFE zinc, ZN2603, first rose and then fell last week, closing at 24750 yuan/ton with a weekly increase of 3.25%. LME zinc reached a new high of 3355 dollars/ton and then adjusted, closing at 3209 dollars/ton with a weekly increase of 1.91%. In the spot market, the supply increased, downstream purchases weakened, the spot premium continued to decline, and the trading was mainly between traders. As of January 16th, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 925 tons, the SHFE inventory increased by 2459 tons, and the social inventory was 11.84 million tons [5][6]. Macro - economic Situation - In the US, the November retail sales monthly rate reached a new high since July, the December core inflation was lower than expected, the employment market was strong, and the 1 - month interest rate cut probability remained low. Trump's plan to impose a 10% tariff on 8 European countries dragged down market risk appetite. In China, the new social financing in December was better than expected, the central bank signaled interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts, and the export and import in December increased year - on - year [7][8][9]. Industry News - On January 16th, 2026, the average domestic and foreign zinc concentrate processing fees remained flat, and the import ore processing fee decreased by 4.25 dollars/ton. Starting from April 14th, 2026, LME will not accept certain brand warehouse receipts for registration. A Canadian mining company's mine in Peru is progressing smoothly in resuming production, aiming for commercial production in the third quarter of 2026. Central Asia Metals PLC released its 2025 operation update and set its 2026 production targets [11][12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold has reached a new starting point for an uptrend. It is recommended to increase the allocation of gold, focusing on its enhanced monetary attribute. Strategies such as unilateral long - entry and buying call options for gold are suggested, and volatility may rise. [3] - Due to increased risk - control pressure on silver exchanges recently, along with a slowdown in the US inventory flow and domestic speculative sentiment, which eases the spot problem, a profit - taking strategy for silver long positions is recommended. In particular, going long on the gold - silver ratio is recommended as it has good cost - effectiveness and protective value. [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Price Changes**: This week, London gold rose by 2.61%, and London silver rose by 16.2%. The gold - silver ratio dropped from 57 in the previous week to 50. The 10 - year TIPS rose to 1.91%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate fell to 4.24% (2 - year 3.59%), and the US dollar index was 99.37. [3] - **Futures and ETF Data**: For example, the closing price of SHFE silver 2602 was 22,555 with a weekly increase of 20.25%, and the closing price of SHFE gold 2602 was 1,032.32 with a weekly increase of 2.57%. The non - commercial net long positions of Comex gold futures and options increased by 16,720, and the SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 21.11 tons. The non - commercial net long positions of Comex silver futures and options increased by 28,532, while the SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 235.42 tons. [4] 3.2 Price Difference Analysis - **Overseas Price Difference**: This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 rose to - 2.064 dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was - 11.1 dollars per ounce. The spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 rose to 0.189 dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was - 0.76 dollars per ounce. [9][15] - **Domestic Price Difference**: The gold futures - spot price difference this week was - 1.23 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range. The silver futures - spot price difference was 158 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range. The gold monthly spread was 7.84 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range, and the silver monthly spread was 0 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range. [21][24][29][33] 3.3 Delivery Cost Analysis - The total cost of the long - short cross - month positive arbitrage delivery of buying TD and selling SHFE gold was 26.73 yuan per gram; the total cost of buying SHFE gold December contract and selling June contract was 7.53 yuan per gram; the total cost of buying TD and selling SHFE silver was 561.79 yuan per kilogram; the total cost of buying SHFE silver December contract and selling June contract was - 168.44 yuan per kilogram. [35][36][37][38] 3.4 Deferred Fee Direction This week, the gold deferred fee at the Shanghai Gold Exchange was mainly paid from long to short, indicating stronger delivery power, while the silver deferred fee was mainly paid from short to long, indicating stronger receiving power. [39] 3.5 Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratio - COMEX gold inventory decreased by 5.47 tons this week, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 52.1%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 329 tons to 13,348 tons, and the registered warrant ratio fell to 28.4%. Gold futures inventory increased by 2.4 tons, and silver futures inventory increased by 6.58 tons to 626 tons. [41][43][47] 3.6 CFTC Non - Commercial Positions This week, the non - commercial net long positions of COMEX CFTC gold decreased slightly, and the non - commercial net long positions of silver also decreased slightly. [49] 3.7 ETF Holdings This week, the gold SPDR ETF inventory increased by 21.11 tons, and domestic gold ETFs increased by 1.9 tons. The silver SLV ETF inventory decreased by 235 tons. [52][55] 3.8 Core Drivers of Gold - The correlation between gold and real interest rates has recovered this week, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline. [64]

国泰君安期货·有色及贵金属 周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所·有色及贵金属团队 王 蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan@gtht.com 王宗源 （联系人）从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 2026年01月18日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 1 CONTENTS 01 黄金：站在新的起涨点 白银：做多金银比 | 02 | 铜：美联储降息预期减弱和库存增加施压价格，但长期基本面良好 | | --- | --- | | | 铝：高位磨盘，关注回调后的买点 | | 03 | 氧化铝：现期货共振走弱，下方空间恐犹在 | | 04 | 铸造铝合金：高价抑制需求，关注需求负反馈 | 08 铂金：维持震荡，钯金：区间震荡 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures ...

金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2026年1月18日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：站在新的起涨点；白银：做多金银比 强弱分析：黄金偏强、白银中行 价格区间：985-1100元/克、20300-23500元/千克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 ◆ 本周伦敦金回升2.61%，伦敦银回升16.2%。金银比从前周的57回落至50，10年期TIPS回升至1.91%，10年期名义利率回落至4.24%（2年期 3.59%），美元指数录得99.37。 ◆ 周五，原本美联储主席大热人选哈塞特被特朗普提及希望留任白宫，贝莱德全球固定收益首席投资官里克·里德尔（Rick Rieder）异军突起， 周四与当选总统特朗普的面试表现"相当顺利"，成为执掌美联储权杖的领跑者之一。他主张货币宽松、赤字无忧、通 ...

Group 1 - The central bank's monetary policy will continue to focus on structural measures, with a reduction of 0.25 percentage points in various structural monetary policy tool rates to lower social financing costs and support key sectors [1] - There is room for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, which will be used flexibly and efficiently [1] - The central bank will dynamically adjust the scale of bond purchases based on market conditions to prevent sharp market fluctuations [1] Group 2 - The Penghua Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF (551030) is one of the first ten such ETFs, tracking the Shanghai Stock Exchange AAA-rated technology innovation corporate bond index [2] - Compared to single bond investment strategies, the ETF offers advantages such as low fees, low trading costs, high transparency, high diversification, and efficient "T+0" redemption, which helps to mitigate investment portfolio risks and improve capital efficiency [2] - Penghua Fund has established a long-term strategy for fixed income tools since the second half of 2018, actively positioning itself in various fixed income index products and aiming to become a domestic expert in fixed income indices [2]

Group 1: Credit Growth - In December, social financing increased by 2.2 trillion RMB, exceeding the expected 1.8 trillion RMB but lower than the previous 2.5 trillion RMB[2] - RMB loans grew by 910 billion RMB, surpassing the expected 679.4 billion RMB and significantly higher than the previous 390 billion RMB[2] - Corporate loans increased by 1.07 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 580 billion RMB, indicating a recovery trend[2] Group 2: Loan Structure - Short-term corporate loans accounted for 31% of total corporate loans in 2025, up 13 percentage points from the previous year, indicating a shift towards short-term financing[2] - Long-term corporate loans recorded 330 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 290 billion RMB, but still below seasonal expectations[2] - Residential loans showed a negative growth of 916 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 4.416 trillion RMB, reflecting weak demand in the housing market[2] Group 3: Monetary Policy - M2 growth rate increased to 8.5%, driven by a significant rise in non-bank deposits, while M1 growth rate decreased to 3.8%[4] - The central bank indicated a potential for 1-2 interest rate cuts in 2026, with a current space of 1.3 percentage points for reserve requirement ratio adjustments[4] - Structural monetary policy rate cuts of 25 basis points were implemented, aimed at supporting key sectors and reducing banks' funding costs[4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For building materials, it is expected to operate in a range-bound consolidation [4] - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mining - related news [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Building Materials - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process steel mills will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons [3][4] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui: one started to stop production on January 5th, most will stop around mid - January, and a few after January 20th, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - Building materials prices continued to decline and reached a new low. The market sentiment is pessimistic due to the weak supply - demand situation and lack of highlights. Winter storage is sluggish and provides weak support for prices [4] Aluminum Ingots - Macroscopically, the overall inflation rate in the US in December remained unchanged, and the core indicator annual rate was lower than expected. Traders increased bets on "earlier Fed rate cuts" [3] - High aluminum prices suppress downstream purchasing demand, and the overall trading sentiment of buyers declined compared to the previous trading day [4] - The supply shortage of domestic bauxite has eased, alumina plants' bauxite inventories have increased, the spot price of alumina is under pressure, and the intended purchase price of domestic bauxite by alumina plants is falling [4] - The intended transaction price of imported bauxite has decreased, the market is quiet, and some alumina plants are cautious in their procurement plans [4] - Last week, the weekly operating rate of domestic leading aluminum processing enterprises increased by 0.2 percentage points to 60.1%, but the overall situation is "supply - side disturbances ease, demand - side suppression intensifies" [4] - High aluminum prices have generally suppressed the entire industrial chain. Downstream enterprises delay purchases and digest inventories, resulting in insufficient new orders [4] - The operating rate of aluminum processing is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term [4] - On January 12, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic main consumption areas was 730,000 tons, an increase of 46,000 tons from the previous Monday [4] - Macro performance is strong. The logic of the monetary easing cycle driven by the Fed's rate - cut expectation remains unchanged. Domestic monetary easing and consumption policies boost market risk appetite and demand expectations, but beware of high - price risks [5]

Core Viewpoint - The prices of gold and silver continue to surge, reaching new historical highs, driven by multiple factors including geopolitical tensions, U.S. fiscal risks, and strong demand for safe-haven assets [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Price Movements - On January 12, the main silver contract in Shanghai opened significantly higher at 20,881 CNY/kg, with a peak of 20,950 CNY/kg, marking a 14.07% increase [1] - COMEX silver rose over 6%, reaching 84.52 USD/oz, while London spot silver hit a high of 84.589 USD/oz, with an increase of over 5% [1] - COMEX gold reached 4,612.7 USD/oz, and the Shanghai gold main contract saw a 3.07% rise, both setting new historical highs [1] Group 2: Factors Driving Price Increases - Geopolitical risks are high, enhancing market demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver [3] - U.S. fiscal risks are increasing due to the Trump administration's economic policies, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt and diminishing the attractiveness of dollar assets [3][4] - Central banks globally are showing a strong willingness to increase gold reserves due to economic uncertainties [3] Group 3: Investment Trends - In 2025, gold and silver saw substantial inflows, with over 5.5 billion shares of gold ETFs net purchased, and the largest gold ETF in China, Huaan Gold ETF, growing from under 30 billion CNY to over 90 billion CNY [5][6] - As of December 2025, China's central bank held 7.415 million ounces of gold, continuing a 14-month streak of increasing gold reserves [6] - In the first seven trading days of 2026, gold ETFs saw net purchases exceeding 400 million shares, with Huaan Gold ETF approaching 100 billion CNY [6] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Analysts predict that gold and gold stocks will have significant potential in 2026, driven by ongoing monetary easing and geopolitical factors [7] - The investment logic surrounding gold has shifted from short-term economic indicators to a focus on long-term structural risk hedging [7] - Gold is increasingly viewed as a strategic long-term hedge, enhancing portfolio resilience amid policy uncertainties and fiscal vulnerabilities [7][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The negative factors in the bond market are accelerating to be exhausted. The early - year "bad start" in the bond market is mainly due to the recovery of risk - appetite (a "sooner - or - later" shock), the absence of monetary easing (a "late - but - coming" misalignment), and concerns about supply shocks (a "wait - and - see" situation). The long - end yield has no basis for a large - scale upward trend, and the high point is emerging while the negative factors are fading [3][4][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Bond Market "Bad Start" and Yield Performance - At the beginning of the year, the bond market had a "bad start", with the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds rising significantly. The 10 - year treasury bond yield approached 1.9%, and the 30 - year treasury bond yield adjusted above 2.3%, reaching a new high since 2025. The 1 - year treasury bond yield has fallen below 1.3%, and the yield curve has steepened again [10]. 3.2 Reasons for the Bond Market "Bad Start" 3.2.1 Recovery of Risk - Appetite - The recovery of risk - appetite is the primary factor for the bond market's "bad start". The return of the stock - bond seesaw is inevitable. If the stock market's spring offensive comes earlier or stronger, the bond market will adjust earlier or more. However, since the fundamental environment has not reversed, the suppression of bonds by risk - appetite should be temporary [11]. 3.2.2 Absence of Monetary Easing - The absence of monetary easing is the secondary factor. The bond market's expectation of monetary easing has been extremely compressed. The non - increase in the central bank's bond - buying scale at the end of the year has hit the bond market's expectation of monetary easing again. As the bond's allocation value becomes more obvious, a potential interest - rate cut will turn from an "escape opportunity" to a "reversal opportunity" [14]. 3.2.3 Concerns about Supply Shocks - Concerns about supply shocks are the continuing factor. There is no substantial new information on the supply side recently. The 30 - year minus 10 - year spread is high enough, containing most of the premium for future supply shocks. Supply pressure may only exist in expectations considering policy goals and ongoing work [16][17]. 3.3 Certainty of the Steep Yield Curve - The long - end yield has no basis for a large - scale upward trend, with an early shock and an early high point. The investment return rate has declined in recent years, and the after - tax mortgage rate is lower than the 30 - year treasury bond after - tax yield. The policy - rate cut will lead to a decline in the broad - spectrum interest rate, and the steep yield curve already implies this, with negative factors fading [18].