Core Viewpoint - The market's focus is shifting towards fiscal stimulus policies, inflation trends post "anti-involution" actions, and support for the real estate market [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The onshore stock market and steel-related commodity prices are performing steadily [1] - Recent stabilization in China-U.S. relations and attractive asset valuations suggest more upward space for long-term interest rates [1] Group 2: Liquidity Outlook - It is expected that liquidity will remain ample until the end of the year, with the average seven-day repo rate and seven-day reverse repo rate (OMO) maintaining levels similar to recent months [1] - The net supply of government bonds is manageable for November-December, and the exchange rate is stable, indicating no strong reasons for the central bank to tighten liquidity in the coming months [1] - There has been a recent increase in market leverage, which may prompt the central bank to moderately tighten liquidity if levels remain high [1] Group 3: Monetary Policy Expectations - Expectations for monetary easing policies, such as interest rate cuts, reserve requirement ratio reductions, or larger liquidity injections through net purchases of government bonds, are anticipated to continue [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions regarding further monetary easing have become more pronounced, complicating the decision-making process for Chairman Jerome Powell as the December meeting approaches [2] Group 1: Diverging Views on Monetary Policy - St. Louis Fed President Musalem expresses skepticism about further monetary easing, emphasizing the need for caution and stating that the current inflation rate is closer to 3% rather than the Fed's 2% target [3] - Musalem highlights that financial conditions, including stock valuations and housing prices, are high, and the labor market is cooling, suggesting that measures to curb inflation should continue [3] - San Francisco Fed President Daly shows a more open attitude towards rate cuts, noting that wage growth is slowing and tariffs have not broadly increased inflation [4] - Daly is closely monitoring productivity improvements from AI applications, which could drive economic growth without exacerbating inflation [4] - Fed Governor Miran advocates for a more significant rate cut, suggesting a 50 basis point reduction at the upcoming meeting, citing evidence of declining inflation and a weak labor market [5] Group 2: Employment Market Uncertainty - The employment market's current state is unclear due to government shutdowns, with the Chicago Fed predicting a slight increase in the unemployment rate to 4.4%, the highest in four years [5] - A New York Fed survey indicates a worsening outlook for unemployment, with a 1.4 percentage point increase in the probability of rising unemployment over the next 12 months, reaching 42.5% [6] - Citigroup economists suggest that recent layoffs by large companies may lead to an increase in initial unemployment claims, although the timing and scale remain uncertain [6] - Wells Fargo's economist notes that while risks of a significant economic slowdown cannot be ruled out, the job market appears stable without widespread layoffs [7] - As of the report's publication, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has decreased from 72% to 63%, indicating uncertainty in market expectations [7]

Group 1 - The Bank of England has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.00%, breaking a trend of quarterly rate cuts that began in August 2024 [1] - The decision was closely contested, with 5 out of 9 Monetary Policy Committee members voting to keep rates unchanged, while 4 members advocated for a rate cut to support the economy [1] - The Bank of England has revised its policy guidance, indicating that rates "may continue along a gradual downward path," which has led to increased market speculation about potential monetary easing in the coming months [1] Group 2 - The UK’s consumer inflation rate for September was reported at 3.8%, nearly double the Bank of England's target of 2%, marking the highest rate among major developed economies in the G7 [2] - The Bank of England noted that the risks of sustained higher inflation have become less pronounced, with weak demand posing a more significant risk to mid-term inflation, suggesting a more balanced overall risk outlook [2] - The UK Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, announced that the upcoming autumn budget will focus on curbing inflation and aims to create conditions for the Bank of England to lower key interest rates [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the current economic situation, particularly focusing on CPI and PPI data, indicating a lack of inflation and a need for continued monetary and fiscal policy support [5][6][10] - In September, the CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year and increased by 0.1% month-on-month, while the PPI fell by 2.3% year-on-year, suggesting weak consumer demand and manufacturing prices [1][3] - The article highlights the importance of M1 and M2 monetary supply data, with M2 at 335.38 trillion yuan (8.4% year-on-year growth) and M1 at 113.15 trillion yuan (7.2% year-on-year growth), indicating a narrowing gap between M2 and M1 [6][8] Group 2 - The increase in M1 is attributed to a shift of funds from fixed-term deposits to demand deposits, driven by declining government bond prices, which has temporarily boosted market liquidity [9][10] - In September, household deposits rose by 2.96 trillion yuan, while non-bank financial institution deposits fell by 1.06 trillion yuan, indicating a trend of funds returning to banks rather than remaining in investment accounts [10][11] - The article suggests that the current market volatility and lack of clear upward trends in the stock market have led to a decrease in the attractiveness of non-bank investments, resulting in a return of deposits to banks [12][13] Group 3 - The article discusses the potential for continued government intervention to stimulate the capital market and drive asset price recovery, suggesting that the underlying logic for a bull market remains intact [15][19] - Upcoming key events, including trade negotiations and Federal Reserve meetings, are expected to influence market movements, with a cautious approach recommended until these events unfold [20][21] - The article concludes with a call for strategic asset allocation in anticipation of market changes following these key events, emphasizing the importance of being prepared for potential investment opportunities [22][23]

Group 1 - The international silver price is currently trading above $47.65, with a recent high of $47.85 and a low of $46.86, indicating a short-term oscillating trend [1] - The U.S. government shutdown has reached its 36th day, matching the record set in 2019, raising concerns about the U.S. economy and potentially pressuring the dollar, which benefits silver [3] - The Federal Reserve's policy is impacting silver prices, with the probability of a rate cut in December dropping from 93% to about 70%, providing some support for the dollar [3] Group 2 - Recent trading analysis suggests that silver may attempt to rebound around the $47 mark, with a potential strong rebound if it stabilizes above $48 [4] - The market is closely monitoring upcoming U.S. economic data, including the October ADP non-farm employment figures and ISM services PMI, which could influence silver's price movement [3] - Ongoing geopolitical and trade tensions are sustaining demand for safe-haven assets, which helps limit silver's pullback [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term view of TL2512 is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias". The overall view is "oscillation" as the short - term interest rate cut expectation decreases while the medium - and long - term loose expectation still exists [1]. - For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". The PMI data in October showed weakening, and the lack of effective domestic demand remains. In the long run, a loose monetary environment is needed, and the central bank's stance provides support for treasury bond futures. However, the short - term need for an overall interest rate cut is not strong, so the short - term upward momentum is insufficient, and the short - term movement range is limited, mainly in oscillation [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term, medium - term, and overall view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias". The core logic is the change in interest rate cut expectations [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". The driving factors include the weakening of October's manufacturing PMI data, the problem of insufficient domestic demand, the need for a loose monetary environment in the long run, and the low short - term need for an overall interest rate cut [5].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - Not mentioned Group 2: Core Views - The short - term view of TL2512 is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "weak oscillation", with an overall view of "oscillation". The core logic is that short - term interest rate cut expectations have declined, while medium - and long - term easing expectations still exist [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "weak oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that although treasury bond futures closed up in an oscillatory manner yesterday, due to the persistent problem of insufficient effective domestic demand, a moderately loose monetary environment is needed in the medium and long term to stabilize the demand side, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. However, in the short term, there is no strong need for a comprehensive interest rate cut. With the easing of external uncertainty risks, the warming of domestic policy benefits, and the increasing risk appetite in the stock market, the demand for treasury bonds is suppressed. Overall, the upside and downside space for treasury bond futures is limited in the short term, and they will mainly be in an oscillatory consolidation state [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term is "oscillation", the medium - term is "oscillation", the intraday is "weak oscillation", with an overall view of "oscillation". The core logic is the change in interest rate cut expectations [1]. Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Treasury bond futures closed up in an oscillatory manner yesterday. Due to insufficient effective domestic demand, a moderately loose monetary environment is needed in the medium and long term to support treasury bond futures. In the short term, there is no strong need for a comprehensive interest rate cut, and the increasing risk appetite in the stock market suppresses the demand for treasury bonds. So, the short - term movement of treasury bond futures is oscillatory [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that gold prices have experienced a significant correction after a nine-week rally, driven by market reassessment and profit-taking by investors [1][4]. - Gold reached a historical high of $4,381.52 per ounce on October 20, but saw a sharp decline the following day as investors liquidated positions [4]. - The decline in gold prices coincided with substantial outflows from gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs), marking the largest single-day drop in holdings in five months [4]. Group 2 - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by 57%, supported by central bank purchases and a trend of "currency debasement" trading as investors seek to avoid risks associated with sovereign debt and budget deficits [4]. - The current price of spot gold is $4,113.05 per ounce, reflecting a weekly decline of 3.3% [5]. - Platinum prices showed volatility, initially rising by 2% before retracting, with significant tightening observed in the London platinum market [4].

Core Viewpoint - The market's expectation for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) during the October 30 policy meeting has significantly diminished, with officials indicating that there is no urgency to raise rates even if economic progress is made towards price targets [1][2]. Group 1: Economic and Monetary Policy Outlook - BOJ officials believe that the economy and inflation are developing in line with expectations, with a gradual increase in the likelihood of achieving future outlooks [1]. - There is a cautious stance regarding immediate action due to external uncertainties, particularly the impact of U.S. tariffs, which have not yet fully manifested in the data [2]. - The new Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, is known for advocating monetary easing, which aligns with the BOJ's current position of delaying rate hikes [1][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - Following Kishida's election as Prime Minister, the market has reacted with a weaker yen and rising stock prices, reflecting expectations for continued stimulus policies and delayed rate hikes [1]. - The probability of a rate hike this month is estimated at around 25%, a slight increase from previous weeks but still significantly lower than the approximately 70% expectation at the end of last month [3][4]. - The BOJ will closely monitor financial market developments, especially fluctuations in the yen, as these are now more directly impacting inflation compared to the past [2][4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Bank of Japan, represented by Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, indicates a need for further adjustments to the monetary easing policy as the inflation target has been largely achieved [1] - Initial concerns regarding the impact of tariffs have eased, suggesting a more stable economic outlook [1] - There is a cautionary note regarding the potential for inflation in Japan to exceed expectations, highlighting the need for vigilance [1]