Summary of the Conference Call Transcript Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese economy** and **foreign exchange strategy**, particularly the **RMB (Renminbi)** exchange rate dynamics in the context of strong trade surpluses and a weak US dollar [1][12]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **RMB Exchange Rate Forecast**: - The RMB is expected to appreciate in the short term due to strong trade surpluses and a weak dollar, with a forecast of **6.85** against the USD in Q1 2026 and **7.0** by year-end [11][12]. - The forecast reflects a moderate appreciation against a basket of currencies, with the CFETS RMB index expected to remain around **98-99** this year [12][13]. 2. **Trade Surplus and Economic Conditions**: - A strong trade surplus is anticipated to support the RMB, with exports expected to maintain resilience, driven by global economic growth and easing trade tensions [13][17]. - However, domestic demand remains weak, limiting the potential for significant RMB appreciation [17][18]. 3. **Deflationary Pressures**: - Ongoing deflation in China poses a challenge to sustained RMB appreciation, as it reflects weak domestic demand and low nominal returns on assets [17][18]. - The report suggests that a moderate depreciation of the RMB may be necessary to stabilize the economy and support exports [18]. 4. **Policy Guidance**: - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained a consistent policy stance, emphasizing the need to manage exchange rate volatility within a reasonable range [19]. - The PBOC is likely to intervene to prevent excessive appreciation or depreciation of the RMB, depending on the strength of the USD [19][21]. 5. **Risks to the RMB Outlook**: - **Upside Risks**: A larger-than-expected rate cut by the Federal Reserve or stronger-than-expected Chinese exports could lead to a stronger RMB [22]. - **Downside Risks**: Geopolitical tensions, renewed capital outflows, or a weaker-than-expected Fed rate cut could pressure the RMB [22]. Additional Important Insights - The report highlights that the recent strength of the RMB has had limited spillover effects on other Asian currencies, with only the Malaysian Ringgit showing a stronger correlation due to its ties with the RMB [32]. - The technical analysis indicates that the RMB's appreciation pace may slow down, particularly if it breaks below **6.97**, which could open further downside potential [28][30]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding the Chinese economy and RMB exchange rate strategy, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and future expectations.

Core Viewpoint - The rise in Japanese government bond yields and the depreciation of the yen are seen as positive signs for Japan's economy, indicating a potential exit from decades of deflation, despite some criticism [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Japanese policymakers have been gradually raising interest rates while effectively suppressing the yen's exchange rate [1] - A more competitive exchange rate is expected to enhance domestic corporate profits [1] Group 2: Expert Commentary - Jason Thomas, the global head of research and investment strategy at Carlyle Group, emphasizes that interest rate normalization should not be a cause for concern for an economy finally emerging from deflation [1] - There is a warning against misinterpreting market signals in the current economic context [1] Group 3: Market Reactions - The continuous depreciation of the yen and the rise in Japanese government bond yields to the highest levels in a generation have raised concerns among some market participants [1]

Core Viewpoint - Holding a large amount of savings is seen as beneficial in 2026 due to several reasons, despite common beliefs that it is a disadvantage in the current economic climate [1][10]. Group 1: Reasons for Holding Savings - The purchasing power of savings is increasing as the domestic economy is in a deflationary cycle, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remaining flat at 0.0% year-on-year in 2025, and prices of various goods such as housing and electronics declining [1]. - Keeping money in the bank helps avoid various investment traps, as the current investment environment is risky and many ordinary investors lack the experience and knowledge to navigate it successfully [2][4]. - Having savings allows individuals to respond effectively to unexpected events such as pandemics, unemployment, or health issues, providing financial stability during turbulent times [6]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Individuals with substantial savings have more opportunities to invest when market conditions are favorable, particularly after asset bubbles burst, allowing for the purchase of undervalued assets [7][9]. - The belief that saving money in the bank is a poor choice is challenged, as historical investment opportunities often arise from patience and timing, rather than constant trading [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese economy may still be in a difficult exploration to break deflation in 2026, with weak domestic demand and low prices persisting [1][59][78] - The recent improvements in CPI and PPI are not sustainable and are characterized by a lack of strong domestic demand support, indicating that they do not signal a genuine break from deflation [1][58][77] - The RMB is expected to reach around 6.85 to 6.8 against the USD in the first quarter of 2026, but this is influenced by seasonal factors and may not indicate a long-term trend [1][56][67] Group 2 - The Hong Kong real estate market has seen a rise in both volume and price, which may provide a reference for mainland China's real estate policies [1][60][80] - In 2025, Hong Kong's housing volume increased by 18%, and prices are expected to rise by 10% in 2026, along with an increase in rental levels [1][81][82] - The easing of policies and declining mortgage rates in Hong Kong have significantly improved housing demand, which could serve as a model for mainland China to stabilize its real estate market [1][25][30] Group 3 - Foreign capital inflow into the Chinese stock market reached $14 billion in 2025, reversing the outflow trend of 2024, and there is confidence in maintaining net inflows in 2026 [1][63][102] - The anticipated two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 have been postponed to June and September, but the market's reaction is expected to be moderate [1][62][96] - The overall sentiment in the capital market remains cautiously optimistic, despite some weaknesses in corporate earnings [1][54][101]

Group 1 - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to the U.S. imposing a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran, stating that China will firmly protect its legitimate rights and interests, emphasizing that there are no winners in a trade war [2] - The Ministry of Commerce announced that from January 14, 2026, it will continue to impose anti-dumping duties on imported solar-grade polysilicon from the U.S. and South Korea for a period of five years [3] - Five departments, including the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, issued a notice to regulate the order of online recruitment, requiring platforms to ensure the authenticity and legality of job postings and to monitor illegal activities [3] Group 2 - The Jiangsu provincial government released an action plan for "Artificial Intelligence +", aiming to cultivate new intelligent native industries and support the development of various AI-related technologies and services [4] - Reports indicate that Tianjin will tighten the management of new residential property prices, limiting price changes to within 10% of the approved price for new sales permits, with stricter measures for significant discounts [4] - Guizhou Moutai announced that its board meeting on January 13, 2026, approved a market-oriented operation plan for Moutai liquor, focusing on a dynamic pricing mechanism based on market conditions [5]

2026 年开年市场表现如何？有哪些值得关注的现象？ 2026 年开年市场表现积极，全球地缘政治格局呈现东稳西荡的局面，人民币 汇率突破走强，A 股和港股活跃度回升。CPI、PPI 等反映通缩的指标近期有所 回弹，香港楼市量价齐升。尽管这些迹象令人乐观，但能否持续仍需观察。 人民币汇率近期走强的原因是什么？未来走势如何？ 人民币汇率近期走强有多方面原因，包括全球对美元资产去魅、中国出口商季 节性结算换汇、美元贬值等因素。短期内人民币对美元可能触及 6.85 甚至 6.8。然而，从全年看，由于国内通缩压力依然存在，中国货币当局会避免重蹈 日本 90 年代通缩政策失误的覆辙，因此预计年底人民币对美元汇率将保持在 7 左右。 大摩闭门会：邢自强、Laura Wang：开门红之后 260112_原文 摘要 人民币汇率短期或触及 6.85，但全年预计保持在 7 左右，因国内通缩压 力犹存，中国或避免重蹈日本覆辙，不会大幅升值人民币。 中国经济尚未摆脱通缩，CPI 和 PPI 反弹主要由季节性因素和黄金价格 驱动，内需复苏乏力，上游价格难向下游传导，物价反弹难持续。 香港房地产市场回暖得益于政策放松、按揭利率下行，内地可 ...

2026 年 01 月 12 日 12:49 大摩闭门会：邢自强、Laura Wang：开门红之后 260112_原文 发言人 00:04 54321。各位投资者朋友，大家上午好。欢迎来到每周一度的大摩宏观策略谈。我周末也在上海待了 半天左右，陆家嘴突然降温，但好像参加了一些研讨，大家的心头是比较热火的，为什么呢？因为开年 同脸周的开门红，还是给 26 年的市场奠定了一个积极的色彩基调。 发言人 00:35 这里面我们观察到全球地缘政治的格局出现了东稳西荡的局面，人民币汇率突破走强，A 股港股的活跃 度在回升。CPI、PPI 这些反应通缩的指标，最近回弹了一些，包括楼市的一个先行指标。香港的楼市 量价齐升，所以开门红是比较热闹的。当然我想热闹背后大家还是关注能不能持续下去，那就是今年的 核心命题，打破通书，让柴米油盐消费民生更好的恢复可能才能决定这些迹象能否持续。所以今天我们 就基于在 25 年年底收官的策略谈和 26 年第一期提到的三个进行时的核心框架，再结合最新的内外局 势，请来了我们的首席策略师罗 A 我们的经济学家郑宁，我们的反映整个亚太的固定收益和汇率的分析 师 get，还有我们关于香港的房地产市场 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a consensus nearing the end of the rate cut cycle, with potential shifts towards a rate hike cycle, particularly in the G10 economies [1][2]. Core Insights - The report anticipates that the deflationary process will continue until 2026, with the Federal Reserve expected to lower rates twice this year [1][2]. - The Bank of England is projected to cut rates three times this year, while the U.S. is expected to lower rates twice, aligning closely with market pricing [3]. - The report highlights that the U.S. 10-year benchmark rate is expected to stabilize around 4.2%, with a tendency for the yield curve to steepen [4][5]. Summary by Sections Economic Forecasts - The report suggests that the current economic predictions align closely with actual conditions in most economies, with policy rate forecasts slightly below market expectations [2][3]. - It emphasizes that the deflationary trend is most pronounced in the U.S., with other economies like the UK and Europe facing challenges in meeting inflation targets [2][3]. Interest Rate Projections - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is expected to remain around 4.2%, while German and UK yields are projected to rise to 3.25% and 4%, respectively [4][5]. - Japan's 10-year bond yield is expected to remain pessimistic at 2%, with a flattening yield curve indicating significant selling pressure [5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The U.S. Treasury's issuance strategy is focused on short-term bonds, with a projected reduction in net coupon bond supply by approximately $500 billion compared to last year [8]. - In the UK, issuance demand is expected to consolidate, while the European market remains stable with increased supply from Germany offset by other regions [9]. Long-term Debt and AI Capital Expenditure - There is a noted shift towards short-term bonds in the U.S., UK, and Japan, with AI capital expenditure potentially increasing sensitivity to long-term yield changes [10]. - The report indicates that the market will need to gradually digest the existing long-term debt, with evidence suggesting a rising reliance on debt financing by the private sector [10]. Investment Strategies - The report suggests that the current environment is favorable for long-term spread trades, with strong economic activity and declining inflation [11]. - It recommends considering options to hedge directional risks and maintaining short-term positions rather than long positions [11].

股指期货周报：春季行情确立 研究员：孙锋 期货从业证号：F0211891 投资咨询证号：Z0000567 目录 第一部分 周度核心要点分析及策略推荐 2 第二部分 周度数据追踪 5 GALAXY FUTURES 1 一周要闻 GALAXY FUTURES 2 国常会：部署实施财政金融协同促内需一揽子政策。 人民日报钟才平：统筹促消费和扩投资，建设强大国内市场。 财政部、税务总局发布公告，自2026年4月1日起，取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税。自2026年4月1日起至2026 年12月31日，将电池产品的增值税出口退税率由9%下调至6%；2027年1月1日起，取消电池产品增值税出口退 税。 2025年12月份，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨0.8%，回升至2023年3月份以来最高，扣除 食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%。工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比下降1.9%。 12月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为50.1%，比上月上升0.9个百分点，升至扩张区间。 2025年12月，美国非农就业人数喜忧参半，增加5万人，预期7万人；失业率降至4.4%。数据公布后，美 ...

Domestic Economic Indicators - December PPI exceeded expectations, recording a month-on-month increase of +0.2%, the highest growth rate of the year[1] - January PPI is expected to narrow significantly to around -1.2% year-on-year[1] Overseas Economic Indicators - U.S. unemployment rate fell to 4.4% from 4.6%, with non-farm payrolls adding 50,000 jobs in December, diminishing expectations for a Fed rate cut in January[1][16] - Trump plans to increase the U.S. defense budget by 50% to $1.5 trillion by 2027[1][16] Currency and Asset Market Insights - The central bank emphasized "preventing excessive exchange rate fluctuations," with the probability of the RMB breaking 7 earlier than expected increasing[1] - If the RMB maintains strength, Hong Kong stocks may enter a favorable performance period[1] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - From January 4 to 9, the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 14,550 billion CNY through reverse repos, with a 7-day reverse repo injection of 1,387 billion CNY[2][17] - The average funding rates for various instruments decreased, with DR001 down 0.4273 basis points to 1.2670%[3][18] Government Debt Financing - Local government debt net financing reached 1176.64 billion CNY, while national debt net financing was 4950 billion CNY, totaling 6126.64 billion CNY[19] - Upcoming planned issuance for local government bonds is 702.01 billion CNY and national bonds is 1670 billion CNY, with a net financing of approximately -3299.39 billion CNY expected[19] Market Performance Overview - A-share market showed strong bullish sentiment with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 3.82%[32] - The Hang Seng Index demonstrated clear signs of bottom rebound, increasing by 2.35%[32]