价格已经在下降，价格降了很多，现在通胀基本消失了，我们已经让它正常化，还会进一步 小幅下降。但你也不希望出现通缩，必须小心。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 特朗普称美国通胀问题已基本解决，但否认会出现通缩。 特朗普再次指责前任拜登政府，坚称他的团队"继承"了高通胀局面。 周一，美国总统特朗普在白宫表示 风险提示及免责条款 ...

大摩闭门会：邢自强、Laura Wang：前瞻经济会议，布 局老登新登 251208_原文 2025 年 12 月 08 日 12:23 发言人 00:04 54321。大家上午好，欢迎来到 1 周一度的大摩宏观策略谈，我是 Robin 邢自强。正好在北京出差，恰逢 这个礼拜会召开政治局会议和中央经济工作会议。所以这几周大家也注意到了，我们也是频繁的在北京往 返，甚至过周末，参与了一些体制内和体制外对于经济工作会议的座谈会约解读。所以今天的主题也是前 瞻经济工作会议布局新登老登股票。我会简短一点抛砖引玉。 发言人 00:48 我们的首席策略是 lara 和经济学家监利坐镇香港，在和我们覆盖新的 AI 产业的硬件的差异，会来判断现在 关于中美的 AI 泡沫之争对于投资股票的影响。我们覆盖一些老的板块，但最近也是重新焕发青春的。比如 说保险这些行业的分析师 rick，他也是我们非常优秀的年轻的冉冉身体的明星分析师，也会给大家带来这 些老灯值得配置的原因。我想今年 25 年大部分的投资者已经接近收官了。现在反复问我们的不外乎就是最 后一个会议，中央经济工作会议的政策定调，对一些地产的政策促进，消费政策的落地节奏的判 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the recent adjustment, the allocation value of bonds has started to emerge, and the attractiveness of 30 - year treasury bonds to allocation - type institutions has increased. The market will focus on key events such as the Central Economic Work Conference and the Political Bureau Meeting in December, which may provide new directional guidance. In the short - term, the pattern of a capped and floored bond market is difficult to break, and the yield of 10 - year bonds may remain in the range of 1.75% - 1.85%. If the expectation of interest rate cuts in early next year is strengthened, the bond market is expected to rise [8]. - In the medium - to - long - term, insufficient effective demand is the main challenge in China's economic development. In the new normal stage where the marginal benefits of land finance and debt - driven economic growth decline, the asset - liability tables of residents and enterprises are impacted, and new economic growth drivers are still being cultivated. With the potential impact of trade frictions in the Trump 2.0 era, total demand is unlikely to recover fundamentally in the short term, and deflation is likely to continue. Therefore, the fundamentals are still favorable for bond futures. The coordinated strengthening of monetary and fiscal policies, with monetary policy taking the lead, and a low - interest - rate environment are crucial for policy implementation, making it difficult for bond yields to rise significantly [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views - Last week, the performance of treasury bond futures across different maturities was divergent. Ultra - long - term treasury bond futures tumbled, while other maturities weakened slightly, and the long - term trend did not show an obvious inflection point. Negative factors such as the new regulations on public fund sales, year - end policy expectations, central bank bond - buying scale, and regulatory investigations led to concentrated profit - taking and early liquidation, increasing market volatility, especially in the more speculative maturities. The main institutional holders of ultra - long - term treasury bonds had insufficient buying willingness or limited capabilities. On Friday, ultra - long - term bonds stabilized slightly but had weak rebound momentum [4]. - The table shows the closing price, weekly change rate, weekly trading volume, change in weekly trading volume, weekly open interest, and change in weekly open interest of various treasury bond futures contracts [5]. 3.2 Liquidity Tracking - The report presents data on open - market operations (quantity and price), medium - term lending facility (quantity and price), reverse repurchase rate, and various interest rates such as deposit - type pledged repurchase, SHIBOR, and bond - pledged repurchase rates, as well as data on MLF maturity volume, policy rates, and market rates, and also shows the trends of treasury bond yields, treasury bond term spreads, US treasury bond yields, and US treasury bond term spreads [10][12][18][29][34][37] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - The report provides data on treasury bond futures basis, net basis, implied repo rate (IRR), and implied interest rates for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures contracts [44][52][59][65]

Group 1 - Musk discussed the potential of AI and robotics to significantly reduce labor costs, potentially bringing them close to zero as they create a closed-loop system for manufacturing and energy [3][4][8] - He believes that the traditional currency system will lose its significance as labor becomes nearly infinite, with energy becoming the primary value carrier [4][5][6] - Musk predicts that AI and robotics could help alleviate the massive debt problem in the U.S. and may lead to deflation, as the speed of goods and services production will outpace the growth of money supply within three years [2][9][10] Group 2 - Musk expressed that higher education may not be necessary for skills in a "post-work era," although he does not oppose attending university for social reasons [13][14][16] - He emphasized the importance of pursuing truth, beauty, and curiosity as frameworks for regulating AI [18][19] - When asked about investment opportunities, Musk mentioned Google and Nvidia as potential targets due to their strong AI capabilities and innovative business ventures [23][25] Group 3 - Musk shared insights from his experience with managing DOGE in the U.S. government, highlighting a tool that could save the government $100-200 billion by improving payment auditing [27][29] - He encouraged a focus on creating genuinely useful products and services, suggesting that money will follow naturally from value creation rather than being the primary goal [30][31][36] - Musk advised entrepreneurs to accept the possibility of failure while concentrating on producing value that exceeds the investment [33][36]

马斯克最近接受了印度知名企业家和博主Nikhil Kamath的采访。 Nikhil Kamath是印度的一名年轻企业家，金融经纪公司 Zerodha的联合创始人。 2021年，他以90亿美元财富首次登上《胡润全球白手起 家U40富豪榜》，此后财富值持续增长，截至2024年以84亿美元位列《福布斯印度富豪榜》第33位。 两个人对未来的商业、科技和社会发展进行了讨论， Nikhil Kamath说他希望通过与马斯克的对话，帮印度雄心勃勃的创业者们找到未来 的方向。 整个采访时长接近2个小时，我看完了，对其中马斯克的部分观点我做了提炼和总结，供大家参考： 大家好，我是卫明。周末加更，分享我认为有价值的内容。 1. 当AI和机器人大幅度提高生产力，自己能建造芯片和光伏，然后又能反哺机器人，从而完成制造和能量闭环后，将会把"劳动力成 本"将降到非常低或接近 "零" 。 而马斯克认为，货币系统就是劳动力分配系统，当劳动力接近无限时，传统货币体系的意义会消失，而能源才是最重要的价值承载物。 我认为你不再需要货币 作为劳动力分配的数据库。 我认为货币 作为一个概念会消失。 他的意思是，那个时候传统货币的意义和重要性会小很多 ...

胡博 执业登记编码：S0760522090003 邮箱：hubo1@sxzq.com 煤炭 煤炭行业信用分析报告 领先大市-A(维持) 煤炭行业信用风险观察与展望 2025 年 12 月 5 日 行业研究/行业分析 煤炭板块近一年市场表现 资料来源：常闻 【山证煤炭】煤炭进口数据拆解：25 年 10 月进口环比收缩 2025.12.1 中长期合同点评：符合预期，港口基准 价维持不变 2025.11.20 体利润、内部亏损面、现金流等有所冲击，"信用一体"或再次走向"信用 分化"。 投资要点： 首选股票 评级 "反内卷"扭转预期？：2025 年反内卷带动政策转向，煤炭价格反弹， 尽管价格上涨超预期，信用市场对反内卷并不敏感。主要因为现阶段煤炭信 用对于煤价变化相对钝化，而且前期跌价时煤炭相关债项并未出现显著风险 释放。从核心宏观目标来说，反内卷主要是为了扭转通缩趋势，因此传导链 条为"通缩→反内卷→盈利提升→通胀"，而通胀水平提升需要各环节维持 合理利润。因此煤炭反内卷政策并非供应单向收缩，而是均衡统筹考虑。对 比供给侧改革和山西查三超，反内卷和前两者底层逻辑不同，供给侧改革是 债务驱动，山西查三超是安全驱动， ...

然而，高市早苗并没有认真看待这一问题，反而向全球发出了嚣张的喊话，要求各国来日本投资。她甚至模仿《进击的巨人》中的台词，发出都给我闭嘴！ 把钱都投到我这儿来！的强硬言辞。她的本意是希望各国，尤其是沙特等国家，能够加大对日本的投资。然而，这种言论既不合时宜，也不合理。国际资本 总是以盈利为导向，只有当投资者评估后发现，在日本市场能获得更多的回报时，才会选择投资。而且，当前中日之间的紧张关系使得国际社会对日本可能 在台湾问题上采取军事行动产生了担忧。中方也已经明确警告日本，若在台湾问题上越线，整个日本可能都成为战场。在这种情况下，谁会愿意冒险在日本 投资呢？高市早苗的言论或许能欺骗国内民众，但难以瞒得过国际资本的敏锐眼光。事实上，日本政界和经济界也明白，高市早苗的言辞不过是盲目的自 信。根据日媒的报道，日本经济团体联合会会长筒井义信以及跨党派组织日中友好议员联盟的事务局长小渊优子，已经先后向中方提出了希望尽快访华的请 求。 日本经济正面临多重困难，包括人口老龄化、物价持续上涨以及政府债务高企等，这些问题让日本的经济走到了历史的十字路口。如果日本无法摆脱通缩困 境，无法实现产业升级，经济政策也难以正常化，那么日本的 ...

Group 1 - The core significance of the "9·24" policy shift is to restore confidence in the capital market and among entrepreneurs [1][11][60] - The past decade's perception of "dollar assets being the only star" is gradually being demystified [1][19] - The policy tone for 2026 is likely to remain gradual and moderate, with fiscal policy expected to exert slightly more force than in 2025, but not significantly [1][24][73] Group 2 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes technology-driven innovation, which can highlight new productive forces amid economic challenges, although these cannot fully offset the impacts of traditional economic adjustments [1][4][28] - The key to breaking deflation lies in stabilizing the real estate market, which is crucial for economic recovery in 2026 and 2027 [1][33][79] - The experience from Hong Kong shows that when mortgage rates are lowered to be close to rental yields, the real estate market stabilizes [1][38][86] Group 3 - The past year and a half has seen significant changes in China's capital market due to shifts in policy, enterprise dynamics, and funding [2][9][23] - Enterprises have shown resilience and adaptability, enhancing competitiveness and innovation despite facing challenges from domestic real estate adjustments and external geopolitical pressures [13][14][65] - The trend of foreign investment returning to China is evident, as global investors seek diversified allocations beyond dollar assets [3][20][70] Group 4 - The real estate sector remains a significant influence on China's economy, with traditional industries still holding substantial sway [5][31][82] - The adjustment period for real estate in China is nearing its end, with significant declines in construction and sales volumes observed [85][86] - The need for a balanced approach in the "15th Five-Year Plan" is highlighted, focusing on both technological advancement and consumer demand [25][51][100] Group 5 - Consumer spending is being targeted for enhancement through the establishment of a unified national market and increased fiscal investment in social welfare [42][92][95] - The low consumer rate and high savings rate in China are attributed to an inadequate social security system, which needs reform to boost consumer confidence [46][96][99] - The potential for a significant increase in domestic consumption is projected, with the goal of raising the share of consumption in GDP from approximately 40% to 45% by 2030 [49][50][99]

Group 1 - The core significance of the "9·24" policy shift is to restore confidence in the capital market and among entrepreneurs [2][13] - The past decade's perception of "dollar assets being the only star" is gradually being demystified [2][23] - The policy tone for 2026 is likely to remain gradual and moderate, with fiscal policy expected to exert slightly more force than in 2025, but not significantly [2][30] Group 2 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes technological innovation, which is expected to highlight new productive forces amid economic challenges, although these cannot fully offset the impacts of traditional economic adjustments [2][5][35] - The key to breaking deflation lies in stabilizing the real estate market, which is crucial for economic recovery in 2026 and 2027 [2][36][45] - Hong Kong's experience shows that when mortgage rates are lowered to levels close to rental yields, the real estate market stabilizes [2][50] Group 3 - The changes in policy, enterprises, and capital have led to a new atmosphere in China's capital market over the past year and a half [3][10] - The resilience of many enterprises amid challenges has been bolstered by positive developments in sectors like AI, smart vehicles, and biopharmaceuticals [2][18][19] - There has been a significant shift in capital dynamics, with domestic investors becoming more active and moving towards diversified equity assets [2][26][27] Group 4 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to balance development and security, with a focus on enhancing consumer spending and social security systems [2][54][58] - The plan proposes two core paths for promoting consumption: building a unified national market and increasing fiscal investment in social welfare [2][55][58] - The reform of the social security system is crucial for boosting consumer confidence and spending, with a target to increase the proportion of consumption in GDP from around 40% to 45% by 2030 [2][63][64] Group 5 - The gradual implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to lead to a deeper consensus and understanding by 2027, ultimately breaking the deflationary cycle [2][65][66] - The focus on technological self-reliance and innovation is seen as a key driver for attracting global investors back to the Chinese market [2][66]

在全球经济不确定性加剧的背景下，日本近期股市大幅震荡、债务问题愈演愈烈，引发了国际社会的广泛关注和深思。根据日本媒体的报道，随着日 本央行行长植田和男开始暗示可能加息，日本日经指数狂泻近1000点，甚至一度跌破50000点，创下了近来的最大跌幅。这一系列动荡不仅重创了日 本资本市场，也波及到了美国和欧盟等主要资本市场，形成一场横扫全球的金融风暴。 首先，我们要深入了解日本当前的经济形势。日本的债务水平已超过GDP的200%，远远超过国际公认的60%安全线和90%高危线。在全球主要经济体 中，日本的财务状况可谓是最为严峻的。此种情况下，10年期国债收益率飙升、债券价格暴跌，既显示出市场对日本经济未来的不安，也反映出日本 政府在财政政策上的无所适从。 正如经济学家所言，国际资本是一群极度敏感的"逐利者"，只有当他们评估了投资回报与风险后，才会做出决策。在当前台湾问题日趋复杂的局势 下，外国企业必然会对投资于日本持有更审慎的态度。这种焦虑或许并不会因为高市的激情四射而消失，相反，可能进一步加重了国际社会对日本经 济政策的不安。 不可忽视的是，日本的商界人士与政治领导层之间其实存有显著的分歧。诸多日本经济团体的领导， ...