俄罗斯央行当地时间19日宣布，将基准利率下调50个基点至16%；英国央行18日宣布，将基准利率下调 25个基点至3.75%；墨西哥央行18日宣布，将基准利率下调25个基点至7%；智利央行12月16日将基准利 率从4.75%下调至4.5%。 新一轮降息潮来袭！ 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 值得关注的是，新一轮降息潮的推动下，黄金、白银价格近期持续上涨。12月19日，现货白银价格突破 67美元/盎司，再创历史新高。现货黄金价格上涨0.20%报4341美元/盎司，逼近历史高点。 今年以来，白银价格涨幅超过130%，黄金价格的涨幅超过65%。有研究机构指出，在降息周期以及全 球央行购金需求的推动下，金价有望继续走高。 多国宣布降息 当地时间周五（12月19日），俄罗斯央行宣布，将基准利率下调50个基点至16%。这是俄央行连续第五 次降息。俄罗斯央行董事会下次会议将于2026年2月13日举行，届时将审议基准利率的后续调整。 俄罗斯央行表示，11月份，物价涨幅的持续性指标有所回落。与此同时，近几个月通胀预期略有上升。 俄罗斯央行将维持必要的紧缩货币政策，以使通胀率恢复至目标水平。未来 ...

新一轮降息潮来袭！ 俄罗斯央行当地时间19日宣布，将基准利率下调50个基点至16%；英国央行18日宣布，将基准利率下调25个基 点至3.75%；墨西哥央行18日宣布，将基准利率下调25个基点至7%；智利央行12月16日将基准利率从4.75%下 调至4.5%。 值得关注的是，新一轮降息潮的推动下，黄金、白银价格近期持续上涨。12月19日，现货白银价格突破67美 元/盎司，再创历史新高。现货黄金价格上涨0.20%报4341美元/盎司，逼近历史高点。 今年以来，白银价格涨幅超过130%，黄金价格的涨幅超过65%。有研究机构指出，在降息周期以及全球央行 购金需求的推动下，金价有望继续走高。 多国宣布降息 当地时间周五（12月19日）， 俄罗斯央行 宣布，将基准利率下调50个基点至16%。这是俄央行连续第五次降 息。俄罗斯央行董事会下次会议将于2026年2月13日举行，届时将审议基准利率的后续调整。 俄罗斯央行表示，11月份，物价涨幅的持续性指标有所回落。与此同时，近几个月通胀预期略有上升。俄罗斯 央行将维持必要的紧缩货币政策，以使通胀率恢复至目标水平。未来基准利率决策，将取决于俄国内通胀放缓 的可持续性以及通胀预期的 ...

2025.12.17 周三 文/南篱 各位好，我是南篱，一个财经人。 在大家忽略的角落里，白银重演了1979年的上涨。 12月份，比黄金更不消停的居然是白银，今天黄金还没怎么动弹呢，白银往上涨了4%了！行情上更是一度触及到了66.5的高位，可谓是历史性的涨幅了。 把年线拉出来看，上一段这种涨幅，是1979年的上涨，1980年还有一些延续。之后是大银下跌，从此白银开启了失落的十多年。现在市场的看涨真无异于是 有些"造神"的可能性在了，在文章的开始，也劝各位一句，这种情况，反手押注顶部肯定是"送人头"，但是追到不知何时，追多者就有可能被当作接盘者 了。 每一次的跟随，都需要慎之又慎。话说回来，白银今天4%的涨幅，黄金才多少，1%左右，此时还有收缩，怎么黄金就萎靡了呢？ 下方要去关注的除了三角形的下轨之外，激进一些的支撑，还有小时图的布林带中轨一带，大概是4310。结合到成交量密集区的实体部分是在4301。所以 说，4301—10成为今天的临时分水岭。多空轮转并不强，务必系好安全带。 至于上方破了位之后，那就破了位之后再说吧，破位之后呢，是要往前高去发起冲击的，届时再谈。 免责声明：文章不作为建议仅供参考，具体交易 ...

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the copper industry is "Oscillating with an upward bias" [1] Core Viewpoints - Macroeconomic data affects market sentiment, and the copper market fundamentals remain in a tight - balance. If there are disruptions in the mining end, copper prices may rise significantly. During the interest - rate cut cycle, attention should be paid to US economic data [1] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened lower and moved lower, then turned positive in the afternoon. In November, non - farm payrolls increased slightly, but the unemployment rate reached a four - year high. Traders expect two interest rate cuts next year. The November SMM China electrolytic copper production was 1.1031 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,500 tons (1.05%) and a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. From January to November, the cumulative production increased by 1.2894 million tons, a 11.76% increase. SMM expects the December electrolytic copper production to increase by 65,700 tons month - on - month (5.96%) and 6.69% year - on - year. Copper product profits are squeezed, and the production enthusiasm of copper plate and strip is weak. Copper tube enterprises are restricted by capital pressure and mostly choose to wait and see. Copper foil maintains a high - prosperity level due to the demand for energy - storage batteries and the pre - demand of new - energy vehicles [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened lower and moved lower, then turned positive in the afternoon [1][4] - Spot: The spot premium in East China was - 150 yuan/ton, and in South China was 75 yuan/ton. On December 16, 2025, the LME official price was $11,635/ton, and the spot premium was + $1/ton [4] Supply Side - As of December 15, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $43.33/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.41 cents/pound [8] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 44,900 tons, a decrease of 907 tons from the previous period. As of December 15, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 97,200 tons, a decrease of 3,300 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 166,900 tons, an increase of 725 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 454,600 short tons, an increase of 1,821 short tons from the previous period [11]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market" [5] Core Views - The report highlights a bullish outlook on industrial and precious metals, particularly gold, silver, copper, aluminum, tin, rare earths, antimony, lithium, cobalt, tantalum, and uranium, driven by anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a potential decline in the US dollar index [1][2][3] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have shown significant increases, with COMEX gold and silver closing at $4302.7 and $61.1 per ounce, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.1% and 4.5% respectively. The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut and plans for further easing are expected to support a long-term upward trend in gold prices [2][11] - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Shandong Gold, Zhongjin Gold, and Hunan Gold due to their potential in the rising gold market [2] Industrial Metals - Copper prices have shown mixed performance, with LME copper closing at $11552.5 per ton, down 1.05% week-on-week, while SHFE copper rose by 2.63% to 94020 yuan per ton. Supply constraints and fluctuating demand are expected to maintain price elasticity [2][3] - The report recommends monitoring companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, Jiangxi Copper, and Yunnan Copper for investment opportunities in the copper sector [3] Aluminum - Aluminum prices have been volatile, with LME aluminum closing at $2875.0 per ton, down 0.40%. The report notes a slight increase in domestic production capacity but highlights ongoing demand resilience in sectors like automotive and electricity [3][11] - Suggested companies for investment include Nanshan Aluminum and China Hongqiao due to their positioning in the aluminum market [3] Tin - Tin prices have surged, with SHFE tin contracts reaching 332720 yuan per ton, up 5.09%. Supply disruptions from conflict-affected regions are contributing to tight raw material availability [3][8] - Companies such as Yunnan Tin and Huaxi Holdings are recommended for their potential in the tin market [8] Strategic Metals - Rare earth prices are experiencing short-term fluctuations, with significant regulatory adjustments expected to impact supply. The report anticipates a potential new price increase cycle for rare earths due to supply shortages and policy changes [9] - Companies like China Rare Earth and Northern Rare Earth are highlighted as key players in this sector [9][10] Cobalt - Cobalt prices are currently around 409,000 yuan per ton, with supply constraints expected to tighten further due to export quota regulations from the Democratic Republic of Congo. The report maintains a positive outlook on cobalt prices [10] - Recommended companies include Huayou Cobalt and Tianqi Lithium for their strategic positioning in the cobalt market [10]

【报告导读】金融市场预期的波动不会改变实体经济运行的趋势。尽管AI股票波动在放大、降息预期存在反复，但未来投资和降息方向都相对更为明 确，经济的齿轮不会因为预期变化而停滞，与现实相关的资产将继续前行。未来基本面受上述两个因素影响带来的潜在变化更值得投资者关注和下注，我 们的主线推荐维持不变。 本周中央经济工作会议定调明年的经济目标，我们认为走出通缩的路径逐步明晰：（1）扩大内需依旧是首位，但实现路径可能不在于加大财政补贴和政 府投资，而是中长期提升居民收入的目标（从2024年的中低收入人群+养老金→更广泛群体的城乡居民增收计划）以及激活民间资本。（2）继续强调中 游制造的反内卷，这为企业盈利的修复打下基础。以光伏的收储计划为例，未来可能会逐步落地。多晶硅的价格已稳定在5.5万元/吨附近。从通胀数据来 看，走出通缩的政策思路已经有所体现：11月CPI同比上涨0.7%，为2023年3月以来最高。同比涨幅扩大主要是食品价格由降转涨拉动，但除此以外服务 性消费价格指数也在上涨：飞机票、家政服务和在外餐饮价格分别上涨7.0%、2.4%和1.2%。PPI虽然同比下降2.2%，但主要受上年同期对比基数走高影 响，环比上看上 ...

12月12日，美联储如期降息，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25 个基点至 3.50%–3.75%。美元指数大幅 走弱，最低触及 98.6，创下一个月低位。10 年期国债收益率同步下挫 0.88 个百分点至 4.19%，录得近 一个半月来最大单日跌幅，也推动金银等贵金属价格迅速上扬。美联储主席鲍威尔会后表示，当前利率 水平已为未来的经济局势做好准备，但对于近期是否继续降息并未松口。外界分析认为，尽管官方表态 谨慎，但市场仍普遍押注未来仍有宽松空间，这为金价带来支撑。 在金丰来看来，这轮降息后的市场反应更像是前期压抑情绪的一次集中释放。金价方面，4 小时图显 示，20 周期简单移动平均线稳定运行在 100 周期上方，长周期均线也在现价下方温和上行，显示买盘 力量重新占据主导。金价站稳短周期均线上方，使短线看多氛围仍在延续。不过金丰来认为，技术指标 暂未呈现强势突破信号：动能指标仍在 0 下方走低，而 RSI 虽处于 53 的中性区间，但方向感不够明 确。短线阻力集中在 4268–4278 美元区间，若突破，4300 美元整数位将成为新的目标位；下方 4190 美 元为关键支撑，为降息后涨势的起点，若短时间跌破，该 ...

11月12日，国内期市贵金属板块全线飘红。其中，沪银期货主力合约开盘报14525.00元/吨，今日盘中高 位震荡运行；截至发稿，沪银主力最高触及15033.00元，下方探低14486.00元，涨幅达3.96%附近。 更新时间： 目前来看，沪银行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于沪银后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 国泰君安期货表示，白银目前现货矛盾难解，国内库存处于历史低位，同时海外lease rate小幅升高，上 海伦敦均面临挤仓风险。而昨日FOMC会议没有更高的点阵图，设想的鲍威尔强硬表态也未出现，打消 了市场拉涨前的顾虑，加速行情上涨。往后看我们认为白银逻辑较为清晰，继续看强，但技术曾面关注 65美元压力位。 宁证期货指出，初请失业金人数有所增加，美国就业形势严峻，2026年降息或仍有空间，提升风险偏 好。白银震荡偏多，关注是否出现逼空行情。 东吴期货分析称，美国上周首申人数增4.4万人，创2020年来最大增幅，显示劳动力市场面临下行风 险。美联储如期连续第三次降息25个基点，贵金属持续上行。预计中长期来看，贸易政策不确定性、降 息周期开启等因素下，黄金白银将维持上涨趋势。 ...

Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to gradually move towards expansion in 2026, with economic growth potentially higher than in 2025, characterized by a front-loaded low and a back-loaded high throughout the year [5][15]. - The first quarter of 2026 may represent a relative low point due to the prolonged government shutdown in October 2025, but subsequent recovery is anticipated driven by fiscal and monetary policy support [15][37]. - Consumer spending is projected to steadily recover, supported by the gradual realization of benefits from the "Big Beautiful Act" (OBBBA), which will reduce tax burdens and increase disposable income [15][20]. Market Performance - The US stock market is expected to see further gains in 2026, primarily driven by earnings growth, with an overall EPS increase of over 12% anticipated [5][43]. - The technology sector is expected to continue its dominance in the first half of 2026, while a shift towards cyclical sectors is anticipated in the latter half as economic recovery progresses [49][50]. Sector Analysis - Small-cap stocks are expected to show greater elasticity in 2026, supported by lower borrowing costs and pent-up demand as the economy enters the early stages of recovery [5][49]. - The technology sector is projected to maintain its leading position in the first half of the year, with significant contributions from earnings, while the second half may present risks due to potential stagnation in capital expenditures [49][50]. - Cyclical sectors such as industrials, real estate, consumer discretionary, and financials are expected to benefit from the economic recovery, particularly as real estate begins to thaw and new home sales show signs of improvement [5][49][57].

Market Overview - Copper prices experienced a dramatic drop after reaching a historical high of $11,771 per ton, closing at $11,487 per ton, a decrease of 1.29% [1] - Other base metals such as aluminum, lead, and zinc also fell, reflecting a cautious sentiment in the commodity market [3] Federal Reserve Influence - The market's downturn occurred just before the Federal Reserve's December meeting, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut, but concerns arose that this might be the last cut of the current cycle [3][5] - Investor sentiment shifted, with expectations of only two more rate cuts by the end of 2026, down from three a week prior, prompting profit-taking ahead of the meeting [5] Supply and Demand Dynamics - U.S. copper inventories surged to a record 443,000 short tons (approximately 402,000 metric tons), increasing over 300% since the beginning of the year, driven by policy interventions rather than a global oversupply [7] - The disparity in copper supply is evident, with high U.S. inventories contrasting with tight supplies in Asia, leading to a "North America hoarding, Eurasia tightness" scenario [9] Production Challenges - Global copper production faced disruptions due to incidents at major mines, such as the Grasberg mine in Indonesia and the El Teniente mine in Chile, leading to a significant shift in supply forecasts [11] - The International Copper Study Group revised its projections, now anticipating a shortage of 15,000 tons in 2025 and a further increase to a 30,000-ton deficit in 2026 [11] Chinese Market Conditions - China's copper concentrate processing fees remained in negative territory, indicating extreme tightness in the raw materials market, prompting plans for production cuts in the copper smelting industry [13] - Demand in China, the largest copper consumer, has shown signs of weakness, with recent economic stimulus discussions falling short of market expectations [13][15] Sector Performance - The high copper prices have negatively impacted actual demand, with processing fees for copper rods in Jiangsu province dropping to a historical low of -300 yuan per ton [15] - In contrast, the new energy sector showed strong performance, with copper foil production increasing significantly, indicating a divergence in demand across different sectors [17] Market Sentiment and Speculation - Speculative positions in copper reached a historical high, with non-commercial net long positions at 78%, indicating extreme bullish sentiment among traders [17] - The significant amount of capital in domestic copper futures has surpassed 50 billion yuan, making it the second-largest commodity futures category, highlighting the market's sensitivity to macroeconomic news [17]