Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the dedication and resilience of Zhang Laizai, a retired forest ranger in Guangdong, who has devoted over 40 years to protecting the forest and wildlife, showcasing the challenges and rewards of his profession [1][9]. Group 1: Career and Experience - Zhang Laizai began his career as a forest ranger in 1981 and has since walked over 200,000 kilometers, equivalent to circling the equator five times [3][7]. - He worked under harsh conditions for over two decades, living in a simple shelter without basic amenities like water and electricity [3][4]. - The isolation of the job was a significant challenge, with long periods of solitude in the forest, leading him to develop hobbies like writing poetry to cope [4][9]. Group 2: Changes and Innovations - The reform of state-owned forest farms in Guangdong in 2015 brought significant improvements, including better living conditions and the introduction of technology for forest management [7]. - Zhang Laizai adapted to new technologies, such as drone operation, while maintaining traditional methods of patrolling the forest [7][8]. Group 3: Achievements and Recognition - Throughout his career, Zhang has maintained a perfect record of no forest fires or thefts in the 4,000 acres he oversees, earning numerous accolades including "National Excellent Forest Ranger" and "Guangdong Good Person" [9]. - His commitment to the role has inspired a new generation of forest rangers to continue the legacy of forest protection in Guangdong [9].

Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" policy is gaining traction in the market, aimed at addressing the overcapacity issues in traditional industries and enhancing profitability for industrial enterprises [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Context - In the previous round of supply-side reforms, key sectors such as steel, coal, and building materials were prioritized, resulting in significant price increases: coal sector rose by 18.03%, steel by 20.04%, and building materials by 29.96% from February 2016 to December 2017 [2][4]. Group 2: Current Industry Focus - **Photovoltaics**: The industry is undergoing self-regulation with major companies committing to a 30% production cut starting July, which may stabilize prices and improve profitability [5][6]. - **Building Materials**: A coalition of 33 major construction firms has initiated a campaign against excessive competition, with the China Cement Association advocating for high-quality development and price increases to combat rising costs [9]. - **Coal**: The supply-side reform focuses on reducing production capacity, which is expected to boost coal prices and profits. The coal sector is also benefiting from high dividend yields, with the index showing over 6% yield as of mid-2025 [10]. - **Steel**: The steel industry faces challenges from declining demand and increased export pressure. However, if government policies are implemented to control production, profitability may improve as prices are already at historical lows [11]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - **Photovoltaics ETF**: The potential for recovery in the photovoltaic sector presents an investment opportunity [9]. - **Building Materials ETF**: The largest market scale ETF in the building materials sector is highlighted as a key investment [9]. - **Coal ETF**: The only coal ETF in the market is noted for its growing scale and high dividend potential [10]. - **Steel ETF**: The unique steel ETF in the market is also mentioned as an investment opportunity [12].

Core Insights - The Chinese capital market continues to thrive in the first half of 2025, with a significant increase in IPO applications and a deepening of the comprehensive registration system [1][2] - The number of IPO applications accepted by the three major exchanges reached 177, a 405.71% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [2] - The Beijing Stock Exchange (北交所) has become the preferred choice for companies, with 115 out of 177 applications (64.97%) directed there [2] - The month of June saw a surge in IPO activity, with 150 applications accepted, accounting for 84.75% of the total for the first half of the year [2] IPO Market Overview - The A-share market's IPO acceptance and review processes have shown signs of recovery since the beginning of 2025 [1] - The introduction of the "1+6" policy measures by the CSRC on June 18 is viewed as a positive signal for the market, correlating with the spike in IPO applications post-announcement [3] Broker Performance - A total of 38 brokers participated in the IPO process for the 177 accepted applications, with four brokers exceeding 10 projects each: Guotai Junan, CITIC Securities, CICC, and Zhongtai Securities [4][5] - Guotai Junan led with 26 projects, surpassing CITIC Securities' 22 projects, indicating a competitive landscape among leading brokers [5] - In terms of fundraising, CITIC Securities' 22 projects aimed to raise a total of 497.61 billion, while Guotai Junan's 26 projects targeted 208.26 billion [5][6] IPO Termination Cases - In the first half of 2025, 74 IPO projects were terminated, a significant decrease compared to the same period in 2024 [7] - Guotai Junan and CITIC Securities led in the number of terminated projects, with 9 and 7 respectively, reflecting their high volume of overall IPO engagements [7] - Some brokers, like Wenkang Securities, faced challenges with all their IPO projects being terminated, indicating potential issues in their underwriting processes [8]

| | | | | 西新榨季制糖比,从而使得产糖量超预期。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 玉米 | | 短期政策性谷物投放预期和麦玉价差偏低对玉米市场带来利空影 响,关注投放量和投放价格,预期盘面偏震荡,建议观望。新季 | | | | | | 种植成本下移,远月C01建议关注逢高做空机会。 | | | | | | 国内累库压力下,基差和近月盘面表现预期承压。美豆供需平衡 | | | | 日期 | | 表存趋紧预期,若中美贸易政策不变,四季度豆粕存去库预期, | | | | | | 远月合约预期重心抬升;若达成协议,预期美豆上涨贴水下跌, | | | | | | 整体盘面下跌空间预期有限。 | | | | | | 纸浆外盘报价下降,发运量增加,国内需求清淡,目前估值偏 | | | | | | 代. 同时存在宏观利好。 | | | | 原不 | 看否 | 原木当前处于淡季,在外盘上涨的情况下供应下降有限,偏弱看 守。 | | | | | | 生猪存栏持续修复背景下,出栏体重持续增加。盘面存栏宽裕预 | | | | 丰信 | | 期较明显,贴水现货较多。短期现货受出 ...

为破解这一难题，市生态环境局积极推行建设项目环境影响评价审批"一件事"改革工作。一方面， 同步推进一般环评与核辐射环评的受理、审查及批复环节，打破以往"串联式"办理的局限，大幅提升审 批效率；另一方面，通过部门内高效协同，由审批部门传递文书，经各区政务窗口直接送达企业许可文 书，让企业办事不再"折返跑"。 联合审批模式的效能，在江苏华智汽车零部件有限公司项目上得到初步验证。改革后，审批周期较 传统流程缩短50%，企业往返报件次数从4次减至1次。"节省的不仅是时间，更推动项目提前落地抢占 了市场先机。"公司项目负责人张敏感慨道。 近日，在市生态环境局"陪跑员"的帮助下，江苏华智汽车零部件有限公司办件员工小李仅跑了一趟 便拿到两份环评批复，他笑着竖起大拇指说："没想到不仅全程有人'陪着跑'，还办得又快又好！" 按照传统审批流程，企业需分别编制一般建设项目环评报告和辐射项目环评报告，经历"两套材 料、两轮流程、市区两级审批"的过程。"企业在高淳，跑一趟市政务中心将近100公里，两个许可加起 来审批时长要20多个工作日。"市生态环境局驻政务大厅负责人蒋广亭表示，从20多个工作日到如今一 趟搞定，得益于"我陪企业跑流程 ...

作为国民经济的支柱之一，化工行业的发展质量直接关系产业链供应链的稳定性与实体经济的活力。然 而近年来，行业逐渐陷入"内卷"困局，这不仅制约了自身高质量发展，更对上下游产业产生连锁影响。 据恒力产融化工学院副院长赵曦明介绍，我国化工产能约占全球的45%，当前市场呈现"供需两旺"格 局，整体开工率维持在75%左右，但结构性过剩趋势已然形成，尤其是乙烯、丙烯、聚酯、聚烯烃等产 品仍处于投产周期，这使得行业"内卷求生存、外卷挤压国际市场"的特征愈发明显。 从竞争格局来看，化工行业"冰火两重天"：一边是传统大宗品深陷产能释放与低利润泥潭，一边是高端 电子化学品、生物基化工等细分领域凭借技术突破与政策红利蓬勃发展。"在此背景下，行业未来必然 聚焦新质生产力，走向精细化、一体化、低碳化，在新能源材料与高端新材料的国产替代、生物基与可 降解材料、资源循环与低碳技术、农化与医药中间体等领域重点发力。"赵曦明表示。 当前，化工行业的"内卷"已从单纯的供需错配延伸至全产业链的低价无序竞争，企业陷入"扩产—降价 —亏损—再扩产"的循环。广发期货能化分析师苗扬表示，这种状况不仅削弱了行业整体盈利能力，更 制约了研发投入与技术升级，导致 ...

●在美国，白人和黑人在领取失业保险福利方面存在显著不平等：失业后黑人领取失业保险的可能 性比白人低 30%，领取的福利金额也比白人少 46%。 声明：本系列文章基于原期刊目录和摘要内容整理而得，仅限于读者交流学习。如有侵权，请联系 删除。 期刊介绍 ： 《Journal of Public Economics》（公共经济学杂志）是一本专注于公共经济学领域的学术期刊。该 期刊自1972年成立以来，涉及的主题包括税收政策、公共支出、社会保障、公共选择理论、环境经 济学、劳动经济学、教育经济学、卫生经济学、城市经济学和发展经济学等。它探讨了公共政策的 效率和分配问题，以及需求者、供应者和其他卫生保健机构的行为模型。该刊每年发行12期，平均 每期发表10篇左右，2024年影响因子为3.5。 本期看点： 失业保险： ●将医疗补助（Medicaid）服务外包给私人健康保险公司后所产生的动态财政成本，在过渡在初期 财政成本略微降低，但随后几年中 Medicaid 的支出持续上升。 ●医疗补助（Medicaid）管理式医疗（MMC）强制政策实施后在医疗质量方面产生了积极影响，还 通过增加接受Medicaid患者的医生数量，扩 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 晨会纪要 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-07-11 品种晨会纪要 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 煤炭价格反弹，甲醇震荡偏强 | 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：随着国内甲醇产能持续释放，内部供应压力有增无减。叠加海外船货不断到港，外部供 应预期逐渐增大，港口迎来累库周期，而下游需求则步入淡季，供需结构趋于宽松。在经历前期大 幅回调以后，利空情绪得 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Short - term bullish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Upward [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Upward [2] - Glass: Upward [2] - SSE 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Sideways [2] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Sideways [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Sideways [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Rebound [4] - Gold: High - level sideways [4] - Silver: High - level sideways [4] - Pulp: Sideways [6] - Logs: Sideways [6] - Soybean oil: Sideways [6] - Palm oil: Sideways [6] - Rapeseed oil: Sideways [6] - Soybean meal: Sideways [6] - Rapeseed meal: Sideways [6] - Soybean No.2: Sideways [6] - Soybean No.1: Sideways to bearish [6] - Live pigs: Rebound [8] - Rubber: Rebound [10] - PX: Wait - and - see [10] - PTA: Try shorting on rallies [10] - MEG: Try shorting on rallies [10] - PR: Wait - and - see [10] - PF: Wait - and - see [10] Core Views - The iron ore market is influenced by short - term sentiment with a short - term bullish trend, while in the long - term, it shows a pattern of oversupply. The coal - coking market is affected by supply - side reform and production resumption news, and attention should be paid to the trends of hot metal and supply. The rolled steel and rebar market rebounds due to supply - side policies, with mild supply - demand contradictions in the short term. The glass market has limited supply - demand contradictions in the short term but faces challenges in long - term demand [2]. - The stock index market reflects China's economic resilience, with reduced market risk - aversion sentiment, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures. The Treasury bond market has a narrow - range rebound, and it is recommended to hold long positions with a light position. The precious metals market, especially gold, is affected by multiple factors such as central bank gold purchases, interest rates, and trade policies, and is expected to remain in a high - level sideways pattern [4]. - The pulp market has a weak supply - demand pattern and is expected to be sideways. The log market has reduced supply pressure and mild supply - demand contradictions. The oil and fat market has sufficient supply and is in a seasonal demand slump, with a short - term sideways trend. The agricultural products market, such as live pigs, is expected to continue the upward trend, and the rubber market is expected to have a wide - range sideways trend [6][8][10]. - The polyester market has different trends for different products. PX follows oil prices, PTA and MEG are recommended to try shorting on rallies, and PR and PF are in a wait - and - see state [10]. Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Short - term bullish influenced by sentiment, long - term oversupply. Recent supply shows a decline in shipments and arrivals, but overall supply remains loose. High hot metal production drives port inventory reduction. In the long - term, supply will increase, demand will be at a low level, and port inventory will enter the accumulation stage [2]. - **Coal and coke**: Upward due to supply - side reform and production resumption news. Coke production enterprises face profit compression, and downstream demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the trends of hot metal and supply [2]. - **Rolled steel and rebar**: Upward. The supply - side "anti - involution" policy drives the rebound. In the off - season, demand shows a slight increase, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [2]. - **Glass**: Upward. The production capacity utilization rate is stable, and there is a weakening expectation in demand. The inventory is at a high level, and the long - term demand is difficult to recover significantly [2]. Financial Industry - **Stock index futures/options**: The stock index shows a certain upward trend, reflecting China's economic resilience. It is recommended to hold long positions as market risk - aversion sentiment eases [2][4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The market has a narrow - range rebound, and it is recommended to hold long positions with a light position [4]. - **Precious metals**: Gold and silver are expected to remain in a high - level sideways pattern, affected by factors such as central bank gold purchases, interest rates, trade policies, and geopolitical risks [4]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: Sideways. The supply - demand pattern is weak, with a decline in cost support and low acceptance of high - price pulp by paper mills [6]. - **Logs**: Sideways. The supply pressure is reduced, the supply center moves down, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. Attention should be paid to the impact of log futures delivery on prices [6]. Oil, Fat and Feed Industry - **Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil**: Sideways. Supply is sufficient, demand is in a seasonal slump, and there is a lack of self - driving force. Palm oil may be relatively more supported due to production cuts in the origin [6]. - **Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No.2, and soybean No.1**: Generally sideways. The soybean market is affected by factors such as planting area, weather, and exports. Attention should be paid to weather conditions in North America and South America and soybean arrivals [6]. Agricultural Products Industry - **Live pigs**: Rebound. The supply side has strong price - holding sentiment, and the demand side has increased procurement enthusiasm. It is expected to continue the upward trend [8]. - **Rubber**: Rebound. Supply is affected by weather, and demand has a structural recovery. Inventory shows different trends in different areas, and it is expected to have a wide - range sideways trend [10]. Polyester Industry - **PX**: Wait - and - see. It follows oil price fluctuations, and the short - term PXN spread has limited compression space [10]. - **PTA**: Try shorting on rallies. The cost fluctuates after a decline, and the supply - demand situation weakens in the medium term [10]. - **MEG**: Try shorting on rallies. Supply pressure may emerge, and it is gradually entering a supply - demand inventory accumulation stage [10]. - **PR and PF**: Wait - and - see. The industry has low confidence in the future, and the terminal demand is weak [10].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-07-11 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近日国内高层会议定调，最核心的两个：治理低价无序竞争和推动落后产能有序退出， 新一轮供给侧改革可能到来提振国内商品期货。目前胶市供应端处在割胶旺季，增量预期较强，月 环比产出压力较大。与此同时，下游需求偏弱，轮胎产销增速放缓，叠加终端需求迎来淡季。在偏 多氛围支撑下，本周四夜盘国内沪胶期货 2509 合约呈现震荡偏强的走势，期价小幅收涨 1.19%至 14410 元/吨。预计本周五国内沪胶期货 2509 合约或维持震荡偏强的走势。 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备 ...