Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View The sharp decline in the lithium carbonate futures market on November 4, 2025, was mainly affected by the expected resumption of production at the mining end of large factories, the inflection point of inventory and consumption in the first - quarter off - season, and the weak overall commodity sentiment. Although the recent inventory has been continuously depleted, providing some support to the market, the upstream hedging willingness is strong at 82,000 yuan/ton, while the downstream procurement willingness decreases. The follow - up focus should be on the consumption and inventory inflection points. If consumption weakens and mining production resumes, inventory may shift from depletion to accumulation, and the market may experience a significant correction [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 4, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2601 opened at 82,700 yuan/ton and closed at 78,560 yuan/ton, with a - 4.34% change from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 975,978 lots, and the open interest was 457,374 lots, compared with 525,184 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis was 1,040 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts decreased by 800 lots to 26,490 lots compared with the previous trading day [1]. - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was reported at 79,400 - 82,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was reported at 78,100 - 79,300 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 945 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 30 US dollars/ton from the previous day. When the futures price dropped below 80,000 yuan/ton, some post - pricing transactions were closed [1]. - In terms of supply, the overall operating rate of lithium salt plants remained high, with the operating rates of spodumene and salt lake ends both above 60%, becoming the main supply sources. It is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production in November can maintain the production level of October, with a roughly flat month - on - month change. In terms of demand, the power market of new energy vehicles in both commercial and passenger segments is growing rapidly; the energy storage market has strong supply and demand, and the supply remains tight [1]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: In the short term, it is advisable to wait and see. Pay attention to the inventory and consumption inflection points and choose the opportunity to sell for hedging at high prices [2]. - **Cross - period**: None [3]. - **Cross - variety**: None [3]. - **Spot - futures**: None [3]. - **Options**: None [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for soybeans is neutral [4] - The investment strategy for peanuts is also neutral [7] Group 2: Core Views - The upward momentum of soybeans is insufficient, and peanut oil mills' procurement remains cautious [1] - The domestic soybean market is in a supply - surplus situation, and if there is concentrated grain sales later, prices may face downward pressure [2] - Peanut demand has no obvious improvement, and the market procurement is generally cautious [6] Group 3: Market Analysis of Soybeans - Futures: The closing price of the soybeans 2601 contract yesterday was 4055.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 21.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.52% [1] - Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A01 + 25, a change of + 21 from the previous day, an increase of 32.14% [1] - Market situation: Northeast new - season soybeans are stable, but due to the decline in futures prices, some farmers' reluctance to sell has weakened, and the market supply has increased slightly. Downstream traders purchase on - demand, and the overall acquisition rhythm is rational [2] - Price trend: Domestic soybean prices have insufficient upward momentum, with some areas slightly adjusting downwards and some remaining firm. It is expected that soybean prices will be temporarily stable in the short term, with slight adjustments in some areas [3] Group 4: Market Analysis of Peanuts - Futures: The closing price of the peanuts 2601 contract yesterday was 7812.00 yuan/ton, a change of + 12.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of 0.15% [4] - Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 7950.00 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis was PK01 + - 12.00, a change of - 12.00 from the previous day [4] - Market situation: The overall supply of peanuts in the country is limited, the demand has no obvious improvement, oil mills' acquisition enthusiasm is not high, and market procurement is cautious [5][6] Group 5: Market Risks - For soybeans, if enterprise acquisition intensity weakens later, prices may adjust downwards, and rising freight costs compress trade profits [3] - For peanuts, the risk is the weakening of demand [7]

【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2511 | 6194 | 0 | 6194 | PF11-12 | ব | -6. 178 | 6. 182 | | PF | 短纤2512 | 6190 | 6178 | 12 | PF12-01 | -32 | -58 | 26 | | | 短纤2601 | 6222 | 6236 | -14 | PF主力基差 | 150 | 162 | -12 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 126788 | 136879 | -10091 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 340 | 6. 340 | 0 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 123496 | 142919 | -19423 | 短纤产销率 | 41% | 47% | -6% | | PR | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | | 瓶片2511 | 5702 | 5730 | -28 | PR11-12 | ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 11 月 05 日 铝：下方支撑 氧化铝：过剩格局未改 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | T | | | | | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | | | | 21465 | -135 | 325 | 680 | 1050 | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | | | | 21405 | l | l | l | l | | LME铝3M收盘价 | | | | | | | | | | 2866 | | | | | -43 | -29 | 161 | 269 | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | | | | 211680 | -38 | 24199 | -15958 | 3039 | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | | 电解铝 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report provides trend analyses and trading suggestions for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, etc. For example, PX is expected to be in a high - level oscillatory market, while MEG is expected to trend weakly [2][11][12]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: The supply is overall tight, and the demand will remain high. The cost - end aromatic hydrocarbon blending oil demand supports the valuation. It is in a high - level oscillatory market, and one can consider shorting PXN on rallies [11]. - **PTA**: The cost support is weak, and the supply is in excess. It is in an oscillatory market, and one can short the processing fee on rallies [11]. - **MEG**: The supply pressure is large, and the price hits a new low. One can short the spread on rallies [12]. 2. Rubber - The upstream raw material support is insufficient, and the dark - colored rubber shows an inventory accumulation inflection point. The market is bearish, and the price center continues to move down. It is in an oscillatory and weakening trend [15][18]. 3. Synthetic Rubber - The cost collapses, and the processing profit expands. Under the background of a neutral fundamental pattern, the futures price reflects the expectation of profit contraction. It is in a weak operation [19][21]. 4. Asphalt - It follows the crude oil to oscillate. The factory and social inventories are decreasing. The trend intensity is neutral [22][30][33]. 5. LLDPE - The planned - out maintenance increases, and the short - term continuous decline driving force is not strong. The market is in an oscillatory situation. One needs to pay attention to the import pressure [34]. 6. PP - The market is overall weak. Although there are short - term rebound factors, the medium - term trend may be oscillatory and weak [38]. 7. Caustic Soda - The market has downward pressure. The high - production and high - inventory pattern continues, and one needs to pay attention to the supply changes under the background of low profit [43]. 8. Pulp - The supply - side pressure is significant, and the downstream demand is weak. It is in an oscillatory operation, and one needs to pay attention to the port inventory and downstream procurement demand [49][50]. 9. Glass - The original sheet price is stable, and the market trading atmosphere is relatively stable [52]. 10. Methanol - The supply is high, and the demand side has pressure. The macro - driving force weakens. It is in a weak operation, and one needs to pay attention to whether the port goods flowing back to the inland can support the price [57][58]. 11. Urea - The short - term spot trading improves, and the futures price oscillates in the short term [60][61]. 12. Styrene - The contradiction is not significant. Pure benzene has triple pressures, but the blending oil price difference opens. It is in a weakly oscillatory trend [63]. 13. Soda Ash - The spot market changes little, and it is expected to oscillate steadily in the short term [65]. 14. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: The demand improvement is limited, and the disk valuation is high. - **Propylene**: The supply is expected to contract, and the loose pattern improves [67]. 15. PVC - The supply is expected to be sufficient, the demand is weak, and the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change. It is in a weak oscillatory trend [74]. 16. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It declined at night and is weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The upward trend is interrupted, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market declines [77]. 17. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It is waiting for the cabin - opening guidance. The market is affected by factors such as freight rates and shipping capacity [79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The spot market negotiation atmosphere is relatively dull, mostly by traders. The polyester factories are less active. The spot basis fluctuates within a range, and the market sentiment is wait - and - see. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate following the cost side. Pay attention to device changes [5]. - MEG: The price center of ethylene glycol has been continuously weakening, and the market negotiation is light. The supply is expected to be in surplus in the medium and long term, and the market sentiment is under pressure. It is expected that the price center of ethylene glycol will weaken in the near future. Pay attention to cost and device changes [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2. Daily Tips - **PTA** - Fundamental: The PTA futures fluctuated and consolidated yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis loosened. The mainstream spot basis is at 01 - 75 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4525, and the 01 - contract basis is - 79, with the futures price at a premium. It is neutral [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 4.03 days, a decrease of 0.04 days compared to the previous period. It is bullish [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. It is bullish [6]. - Main position: The net short position is decreasing. It is bearish [6]. - **MEG** - Fundamental: On Tuesday, the price center of ethylene glycol continued to weaken, and the market negotiation was light. The overall sentiment in the market was weak. The spot basis of this week weakened to a premium of about 70 yuan/ton over the 01 contract. The overseas market price of ethylene glycol dropped significantly. It is neutral [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 3995, and the 01 - contract basis is 94, with the futures price at a discount. It is neutral [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the East China region is 49.8 tons, a decrease of 1.7 tons compared to the previous period. It is bearish [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. It is bearish [7]. - Main position: The main net short position is increasing. It is bearish [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the ethylene glycol production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. - **Price**: It includes the prices and price changes of various products such as naphtha, p - xylene, PTA, ethylene glycol, and polyester on November 4 and November 3, 2025 [13]. - **Inventory Analysis**: It shows the inventory data of PTA, ethylene glycol, PET chips, and polyester products from 2020 to 2025 [41]. - **Polyester Upstream and Downstream Start - up Rates**: It shows the start - up rates of PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [52][56]. - **Profit**: It shows the profit data of PTA, ethylene glycol, and polyester products from 2020 to 2025 [60][62].

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information was provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In the production industry, the 8th China International Import Expo was held in Shanghai from November 5th to 10th [1]. - In the service industry, the State Council issued the holiday arrangements for 2026 on November 4th, with the Spring Festival having a 9 - day holiday, and ticket search volumes on the platform soared. The central bank conducted a 700 billion - yuan 3 - month买断式逆回购 on November 5th [1]. - In the upstream market, liquefied natural gas and palm oil prices declined. In the mid - stream, PX and road asphalt开工 rates increased, and power plant coal inventories piled up. In the downstream, real - estate sales in first, second, and third - tier cities dropped, while domestic flight frequencies increased slightly [2]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Industry Total Overview Upstream - Energy: Liquefied natural gas prices fell [2]. - Agriculture: Palm oil prices decreased [2]. Mid - stream - Chemical: PX开工 rate went up [2]. - Energy: Power plant coal inventories accumulated [2]. - Infrastructure: Road asphalt开工 rate rose slightly [2]. Downstream - Real estate: Commodity housing sales in first, second, and third - tier cities declined [2]. - Service: Domestic flight frequencies increased slightly [2]. Key Industry Price Indicators - Agricultural products: The prices of corn, eggs, palm oil, and pork decreased, while the price of cotton increased slightly [34]. - Non - ferrous metals: The prices of copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, and aluminum showed different trends, with copper prices falling and zinc and aluminum prices rising [34]. - Ferrous metals: The prices of iron ore, wire rod, and glass had different trends, with iron ore prices rising [34]. - Non - metals: The prices of natural rubber and the China Plastic City Price Index decreased [34]. - Energy: The prices of WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, and liquefied natural gas decreased, while coal prices increased [34]. - Chemicals: The prices of polyethylene, urea, and soda ash decreased, while the price of PTA increased slightly [34]. - Real estate: The building materials comprehensive index and the national concrete price index decreased [34].

1. Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The EG market remains weak under high supply pressure. The main EG contract closed at 3,901 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan/ton (-1.74%) from the previous trading day, and the spot price in the East China market was 3,995 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton (-1.72%) [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$48/ton (down $5/ton), and that of coal - based syngas EG was -724 yuan/ton (down 67 yuan/ton) [1]. - MEG inventory in the main ports of East China increased. According to CCF data, it was 56.2 tons (up 3.9 tons), and according to Longzhong data, it was 49.9 tons (up 1.6 tons). The arrival plan this week is large, and inventory accumulation is expected [1]. - On the supply side, domestic ethylene glycol production is at a high level, and overseas supply losses are still significant with limited change in import expectations. On the demand side, the polyester downstream has moderately improved, but the increase in polyester load is limited [1]. - In the fourth quarter, there is a large pressure for inventory accumulation under high supply, with many production plans, and port inventory is expected to gradually rise [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Price and Basis - The main EG contract closed at 3,901 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan/ton (-1.74%) from the previous trading day, and the spot price in the East China market was 3,995 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton (-1.72%). The spot basis in the East China market was 73 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$48/ton (down $5/ton), and that of coal - based syngas EG was -724 yuan/ton (down 67 yuan/ton) [1]. International Spread No specific content related to international spread is provided in the given text. Downstream Production and Sales and Operating Rate - With the recent cooling, the polyester downstream has moderately improved, but the increase in polyester load is limited [1]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 56.2 tons (up 3.9 tons), and according to Longzhong data, it was 49.9 tons (up 1.6 tons). The arrival plan this week is large, and inventory accumulation is expected [1]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously short - sell on rallies for hedging. Under high supply, there is significant pressure for inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, and port inventory is expected to gradually rise [2]. - Inter - period: Reverse spread of EG2601 - EG2605 [2]. - Inter - variety: No strategy is provided [2].

Report Information - Report Type: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: November 5, 2025 [2] Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View - The adjustment of oil prices and the weak supply and demand of asphalt may lead to a continued decline in asphalt prices [7]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: The BU2601 contract opened at 3228 yuan/ton, closed at 3193 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 3245 yuan/ton, a minimum of 3189 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.00%, and a trading volume of 174,100 lots. The BU2512 contract opened at 3228 yuan/ton, closed at 3198 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 3248 yuan/ton, a minimum of 3182 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.24%, and a trading volume of 26,400 lots [6]. - Spot Market: The spot prices of asphalt in North China, Shandong, South China, and Sichuan and Chongqing regions have declined, while the spot prices of asphalt in other regions are relatively stable. The continuous decline of asphalt futures has a negative impact on the spot price of asphalt [6]. - Supply: Some refineries have production reduction or shutdown plans, but the increase in production of other refineries will form a hedge, and the overall operating load rate is expected to remain basically the same [6]. - Demand: The demand side has begun to decline seasonally. The road projects in the Northeast and Northwest are coming to an end, and the rigid demand for asphalt is shrinking rapidly. The demand in North China and Shandong is only supported by some key projects, and the demand increment is scarce. The construction in the South is stable, but the slow consumption of resources highlights the weak demand. The lack of funds is still the core factor restricting the project progress, and the actual demand for asphalt continues to be weaker than expected [6]. 2. Industry News No industry news is provided in the report. 3. Data Overview - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt is 3350 - 3520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. The price adjustment of Sinopec's asphalt road transportation has a negative impact on the market sentiment, and the decline of asphalt prices in the north has led to some resources seizing the South China sales area, resulting in a sporadic decline in the social inventory quotation in South China [10]. - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt is 3130 - 3620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. Although the international oil price has risen slightly, the asphalt futures have continued to decline. The spot and contracts sold by futures - spot traders and the pre - sale of forward contracts by refineries have led to an oversupply of market offers and a continuous decline in asphalt prices [10].

Report Overview - The report is a daily report on soda ash and glass, dated November 5, 2025 [1][2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Soda ash is expected to fluctuate weakly, with supply stable, inventory slightly decreasing, and potential demand changes due to production line shutdowns. Glass is in a game between "strong expectation" and "weak reality", with short - term price fluctuations and medium - term direction determined by fundamentals [8][9] Section Summaries 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Soda Ash Futures Data**: On November 4, SA601 opened low and closed at 1189 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (-1.73%), with 40,018 additional positions. SA605 closed at 1280 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-1.53%) [7][8] - **Soda Ash Fundamentals**: Weekly production increased by 1.70 tons to 75.76 tons. Demand at the end of October showed an increase of 2.53%. Alkali plant inventory slightly decreased to 170.20 tons. Four coal - fired glass production lines in Shahe may affect demand, and the market may face oversupply in winter [8] - **Glass Futures Data**: FG601 closed at 1105 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.18%), with 105,499 fewer positions. FG605 closed at 1239 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.56%) [7] - **Glass Fundamentals**: Four coal - fired production lines in Shahe will shut down. Glass supply is at a high level. Factory inventory is high, and real - estate demand is weak. The market is in a game between expectation and reality, with short - term price fluctuations [9] 2. Data Overview - The report provides data on soda ash and glass, including active contract price trends, weekly production, and enterprise inventory, with data sources from Wind, iFind, and the research and development department of CCB Futures [12][15]