1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For sugar, the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar continued to weaken overnight. The increasing seasonal supply pressure led to a pessimistic market sentiment and a decline in the market. With the southern sugar mills in the peak crushing period, the seasonal supply of sugar increased, and the supply pressure gradually emerged. In December, sugar imports exceeded market expectations, suppressing the market. On the spot side, prices were weak, and pre - holiday consumption did not improve. It is expected to remain at a low level in the short term [3]. - For cotton, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton maintained a weak oscillation within the range overnight. The immediate profits of Xinjiang textile enterprises and the immediate cash - flow of inland textile enterprises in the downstream industry have been compressed to a relatively low level. However, the inventory pressure of textile enterprises' finished products is relatively limited. The operation rate of inland textile enterprises has decreased steadily, while that of Xinjiang textile enterprises remains strong. After the decline of Zhengzhou cotton, many textile enterprises locked in the basis and priced. The rigid demand for cotton raw materials from textile enterprises still exists. In the short term, the expectation of production reduction regulation has been reflected in the market. It is expected that after continuous reduction in positions and decline in the market, it will maintain a low - level oscillation in the short term, and opportunities to go long on dips can be considered [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Sugar Futures**: For domestic sugar futures contracts (SR2609, SR2605, SR2603), the previous day's closing prices were 5161, 5144, and 5143 respectively, down 39 from the day before yesterday, with a decline rate of 0.75%. The trading volumes were 25565, 223350, and 37264 respectively, and the open interests were 96753, 461359, and 103143 respectively, with increases of 4559, 22526, and 1653 respectively [1]. - **11 - No. Sugar Futures**: For 11 - no. sugar futures contracts (2603, 2607, 2605), the previous day's closing prices were 14.77, 14.35, and 14.67 respectively. Compared with the day before yesterday, the price of 2603 increased by 0.04 (0.27%), 2607 remained unchanged, and 2605 decreased by 0.01 (- 0.07%). The trading volumes were 46550, 19076, and 8358 respectively, and the open interests were 405922, 153199, and 86790 respectively. The open interests of 2603 decreased by 7982, while those of 2607 and 2605 increased by 1743 and 394 respectively [1]. Spot Market - **Sugar Spot**: The current spot prices of white sugar in Liuzhou and Kunming are 5350 and 5195 respectively. The previous day's prices were 5370 and 5195 respectively. The current basis of Liuzhou and Kunming relative to SR2603 is 207 and 52 respectively, compared with 188 and 13 the day before yesterday [1]. - **Sugar Import Price**: The current quota - within and quota - outside import prices of Brazilian sugar are 3331 and 4239 respectively, and those of Thai sugar are 3847 and 4912 respectively. Compared with the day before yesterday, the prices have decreased. The differences between the futures price and Thai sugar are 1297 (quota - within) and 232 (quota - outside) [1]. Inventory and Position - **Sugar Inventory**: The current number of sugar warehouse receipts is 14421, the effective forecast is 50, and the total of warehouse receipts and forecasts is 14471, slightly lower than the previous day [1]. - **ICE11 - No. Sugar Position**: The current non - commercial long and short positions of ICE11 - no. sugar are 143494 and 309205 respectively, and the long - to - short ratio is 0.46, which is lower than the previous day [1]. Industry Information - **Port Cargo Throughput**: In 2025, the Santos Port in São Paulo state set a record high in cargo throughput at 186.4 million tons, a 3.6% increase from the previous record in 2024. China was the most frequent trading partner, accounting for 29.6% of the total trade flow. The main export products were soybeans (44.9 million tons), sugar (24.1 million tons), corn (15.2 million tons), and pulp (9.8 million tons), and the main import products were fertilizers (8.3 million tons), diesel (2.4 million tons), sulfur (2.04 million tons), and wheat (1.3 million tons) [2]. - **Brazilian Sugarcane Yield**: In December 2025, the average yield per hectare of sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 73.4 tons, a 26.6% increase from the same period in 2024. The cumulative yield per hectare from April to December in the 2025/26 crushing season was 74.7 tons, a 4.6% decrease from the same period in the previous crushing season [2]. - **Indian Sugarcane Subsidy**: The Punjab state cabinet in India approved a direct subsidy of 685 rupees per ton (equivalent to 52.38 yuan per ton) for sugarcane farmers in the 2025/26 crushing season this Tuesday. This subsidy will be paid by private sugar mills and directly distributed to farmers' accounts, which is an additional subsidy and does not affect the current guidance price of 4160 rupees per ton (equivalent to 318.07 yuan per ton) in the state, which is still the highest in the country [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Crude Oil**: Bearish rebound [1] - **LPG**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **L**: Bearish rebound [1] - **PP**: Bearish rebound [1] - **PVC**: Bearish continuation [1] - **PX/PTA**: Range - bound [2] - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: Cautiously bearish [2] - **Methanol**: Cautiously avoid shorting [2][3] - **Urea**: Cautiously avoid shorting [3] - **Natural Gas**: Cautiously bullish [6] - **Asphalt**: Cautiously bearish [6] - **Glass**: Bearish continuation [6] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish continuation [6] Group 2: Report's Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Extreme cold weather drives up gas prices, leading to an oil price rebound. However, there is a supply - surplus situation in the off - season, and geopolitical uncertainties remain [1][8][9]. - **LPG**: Follows the cost - end oil price. In the medium - to - long - term, the oil price is under pressure, and the LPG price has room for compression [1][14][15]. - **L**: Cost support improves, but the spot price has not stopped falling. It is expected to fluctuate with the cost in the short term [1][19]. - **PP**: Follows the cost to rebound in the short term. The fundamentals show both weak supply and demand, and the short - term supply pressure eases [1][23]. - **PVC**: The spot price of liquid caustic soda drops, and the cost support of marginal devices improves. There is a short - term export rush, but the long - term supply - demand situation is expected to weaken [1][26]. - **PX/PTA**: Valuation is not low, with supply and demand in a tight balance. It is expected to perform well, but there are risks of negative feedback from the demand side and excessive oil price drops before the Spring Festival [2][28]. - **MEG**: Valuation is low, but there is a lack of upward drivers. The supply increases, and the demand weakens seasonally. It is recommended to short on rebounds [2][31][32]. - **Methanol**: The valuation is not low, and the supply - demand situation is slightly loose. There is a game between weak reality and strong expectations, and the rebound height may be limited [2][35][37]. - **Urea**: The absolute valuation is not low. The comprehensive profit is good, and the supply load is rising. The demand is strong in the short term but may weaken during the holiday season [3][39][41]. - **Natural Gas**: Cold air drives up gas prices, but the supply is relatively sufficient, and the upward space of gas prices may be limited [6][45][46]. - **Asphalt**: The raw material end provides support, and the price remains stable. However, there are uncertainties in the supply of raw materials and the compression space for spreads [6][49][50]. - **Glass**: The supply and demand are both weak. In the absence of further cold - repair implementation, it should be treated bearishly [6][54]. - **Soda Ash**: The upstream production enterprises maintain high - level operation, and the demand support is insufficient. It should be treated bearishly before further intensification of maintenance [6][58]. Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight, international oil prices rebounded. WTI rose by 0.43%, Brent fell by 0.60%, and the domestic SC rose by 0.59% [8]. - **Basic Logic**: Cold air drives up gas prices, pushing up oil prices. The Middle - East geopolitical situation eases but remains uncertain. There is a supply surplus in the off - season, and inventories are accumulating [9][10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production, and the oil price is in a low - price range. In the short - term, it is in a volatile adjustment, and the SC should be monitored in the range of [440 - 450] [11]. LPG - **Market Review**: On January 21, the PG main contract closed at 4064 yuan/ton, up 0.12% month - on - month [13]. - **Basic Logic**: It mainly follows the cost - end oil price, which is under pressure in the medium - to - long - term. The supply is stable, and the downstream chemical demand is resilient [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the LPG price has compression space. The PG should be monitored in the range of [3050 - 3150] [15]. L - **Market Review**: The L05 contract's related data shows certain price and volume changes [17]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improves, the linear production schedule increases, but the spot price has not stopped falling. The terminal replenishment is insufficient, and it is expected to follow the cost fluctuation [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of [6600 - 6800] [19]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [21]. - **Basic Logic**: It rebounds with the cost in the short term. The supply and demand are both weak, and the PDH profit is compressed, increasing the maintenance expectation [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of [6450 - 6600] [23]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [24]. - **Basic Logic**: The liquid caustic soda price drops, and the cost support of marginal devices improves. There is a short - term export rush, but the long - term supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to change [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of [4650 - 4850] [26]. PX/PTA - **Market Review**: The TA05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [27]. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation is not low, the supply is affected by device maintenance, the downstream demand weakens seasonally, and the cost end is in a weak balance [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract, with the TA05 monitored in the range of [5130 - 5220] [29]. MEG - **Market Review**: The EG05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [30]. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation is low, the domestic supply load increases, the demand weakens seasonally, and the inventory accumulates [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to short on rebounds, with the EG05 monitored in the range of [3680 - 3760] [32]. Methanol - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned in a prominent market - review section. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation is not low, the domestic and overseas device loads decline, the supply pressure eases, and the demand weakens slightly [35][36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The supply pressure eases in January, and the demand is suppressed by weak olefin demand. The MA05 should be monitored in the range of [2200 - 2250] [37]. Urea - **Market Review**: The UR05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [38]. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation is not low, the supply load rises, the demand is strong in the short term but may weaken during the holiday season, and the inventory is still relatively high [39][40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The winter - storage benefit is limited, the supply pressure is expected to increase, and the UR05 should be monitored in the range of [1760 - 1790] [41]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On January 20, the NG main contract closed at 3.183 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 17.80% month - on - month [44]. - **Basic Logic**: Cold air drives up demand and gas prices. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the inventory situation is known [45]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the winter consumption season, the demand supports the gas price, but the upward space may be limited. The NG should be monitored in the range of [4.866 - 5.496] [46]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: On January 21, the BU main contract closed at 3157 yuan/ton, up 0.57% month - on - month [48]. - **Basic Logic**: The raw material end provides support, the cost profit declines, the supply is expected to decrease, and the inventory increases [49]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The spread valuation returns to normal but still has compression space. There are uncertainties in the supply of raw materials. The BU should be monitored in the range of [3150 - 3250] [50]. Glass - **Market Review**: The FG05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [52]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply and demand are both weak, the demand is in the off - season, and the weak demand suppresses the upward space [54]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of [1030 - 1080] [54]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The SA05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [56]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream production enterprises maintain high - level operation, the demand support from float glass is insufficient, and the supply is under pressure [58]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of [1150 - 1200] [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Positive: LPG, Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil, Propylene (LPG and Propylene are mentioned together, and Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil are also related) [47][57] - Negative: LLDPE, PP, Caustic Soda, Glass, PVC, Soda Ash [17][20][25][32][55][45] - Neutral: PX, PTA, MEG, Rubber, Synthetic Rubber, Pulp, Methanol, Urea, Styrene, Short - fiber, Bottle - chip, Offset Printing Paper, Pure Benzene, Container Freight Index (Europe Line) [7][8][9][12][28][38][41][42][77][80][85] 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical futures on January 22, 2026, including factors such as supply - demand, price trends, and geopolitical impacts. For example, the tension in the Iran situation affects the oil price, which in turn impacts PX and other related products. The market trends of different products are affected by factors such as production capacity, inventory, and downstream demand [6][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Expected to open higher due to the impact of the US - Iran conflict on oil prices. The supply is loose, and the downstream PTA device maintenance leads to a gradual increase in supply. It is recommended to pay attention to hedging operations such as long PX short PTA [7] - **PTA**: The valuation is supported by the rebound of oil prices. It is recommended to focus on reducing processing fees. The future supply - demand is weak, and it turns into a state of inventory accumulation [8] - **MEG**: The valuation below 3600 has support, showing a range - bound market. The port inventory accumulation pressure increases, and the supply is still relatively high [8] Rubber - The rubber market is in a state of shock operation. The inventory in Qingdao has increased, and the downstream production and sales are under pressure. The total supply is shrinking, and the cost support is strengthening [9][11] Synthetic Rubber - The butadiene price stabilizes, and the futures price rebounds. The inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber has increased, and the butadiene port inventory has decreased significantly [12][13] LLDPE - In December, the import exceeded expectations, and the upstream quotation loosened. The supply pressure exists in the medium - term due to high production capacity and weakening demand [15][16] PP - The production scheduling remains at a low level, and the profit repair is limited. The cost is high, the demand is weak, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [18][19] Caustic Soda - The price continues to decline due to cost reduction and supply - demand collapse. There is a pressure to reduce inventory before the Spring Festival, and the far - month contract may face cost increase and supply reduction [22][23] Pulp - The pulp market is in a state of shock operation. The demand is weak, the port inventory pressure exists, and it is recommended to pay attention to factors such as the stability of the futures market and the downstream procurement willingness [28][29] Glass - The price of glass original sheets is stable. The market trading atmosphere is not strong, and the downstream procurement demand is limited [32] Methanol - The methanol market is expected to be in a shock operation. The inventory in ports has increased slightly, and the cost provides certain support [37][38] Urea - The urea market is in a state of shock adjustment with support at the bottom. The enterprise inventory has decreased, and the price is expected to be stable in the short - term and strong in the medium - term [39][40][41] Styrene - The styrene market shows a strong - shock trend. The export exceeds expectations, the downstream replenishment cycle starts, and the market rebounds [42][43] Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash changes little. The supply is at a high level, and the downstream demand is average [45] LPG, Propylene - The LPG market is supported by heating demand, and the PG trend is strong. The propylene spot maintains a tight balance [47] PVC - The PVC market is in a weak - shock state. The supply is sufficient, the demand is in the off - season, and the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short - term [54][55] Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market is short - term strong with increasing fluctuations. The low - sulfur fuel oil mainly follows the upward trend, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to shrink [57] Container Freight Index (Europe Line) - The container freight index (Europe Line) is in a temporary shock market. The impact of geopolitical factors, supply - demand changes, and policy adjustments on the market should be considered [59][70][71][72] Short - fiber, Bottle - chip - Both the short - fiber and bottle - chip markets are in a short - term shock state. The short - fiber processing fee is at a low level, and the bottle - chip market has a certain trading atmosphere [77][78] Offset Printing Paper - The offset printing paper market is recommended to be on the sidelines. The price is stable, the new orders in the market are limited, and the dealer inventory reduction is slow [80][81] Pure Benzene - The pure benzene market shows a strong - shock trend. The port inventory has decreased, and the market transaction is good due to the impact of the unexpected shutdown of related factories [85][86]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term stop - falling and consolidation. After multiple rounds of negative factors are realized, the short - term continuous decline space is limited. Consider the pre - Spring Festival stocking and the fact that the negative impact of Brazilian soybean listing is basically realized. Be cautious about short - selling operations. Pay attention to the weather in South America [1][2][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term stop - falling and consolidation. With the improvement of China - Canada trade relations, the long - term supply pressure will be greatly relieved. Adopt a wait - and - see attitude with a bullish view [1][6][7]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term rebound. The recent export data of Malaysian palm oil has increased, but the growth rate has declined. Indonesia's decision not to implement the B50 policy in 2026 has dampened the bullish sentiment. Be cautious about chasing long positions and pay attention to the de - stocking situation of Malaysian palm oil in January [1][9][10]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term weak. The domestic soybean oil inventory is decreasing, and the pre - festival stocking has led to good spot transactions. If the data from the palm oil side continues to improve, short - term long opportunities at low prices can be considered [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Short - term oscillation. Although the tariff reduction is not directly targeted at rapeseed oil, the reduction of rapeseed import tariffs will ease the long - term supply. The current high basis limits the downward space, so it may be in a weak oscillation [1]. - **Cotton**: Oscillation adjustment. The January USDA data is bullish for the ICE market. The US cotton market is expected to be strong in the short term. In China, the new cotton processing is basically completed, the sales progress has slowed down, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term is expected to be weak, but there may be a recovery in the medium and long term [1][12][14]. - **Red Dates**: Short - term rebound. With the arrival of the peak season of new product listing and consumption, the high - inventory de - stocking is accelerating, which may drive a short - term rebound. However, in the general context of loose supply and demand, it is mainly a bearish rebound [1][15][16]. - **Live Pigs**: Be vigilant about callbacks. As the end of January approaches, the pressure of increased slaughter before the Spring Festival is increasing. The demand is also changing. Both near - term and far - term contracts are under pressure [1][17][19]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Inventory**: As of January 16, 2026, the national port soybean inventory was 7.721 billion tons, a decrease of 307,000 tons from last week; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 6.8733 billion tons, a decrease of 257,900 tons from last week; the soybean meal inventory was 947,200 tons, a decrease of 96,800 tons from last week [3]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract of soybean meal was 2,725 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan or 0.40% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 3187.71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.86 yuan or 0.09% [2]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of January 16, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 60,000 tons, the rapeseed meal inventory was 0 tons, and the unfulfilled contracts were 0 tons, all remaining unchanged from last week [7]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract of rapeseed meal was 2,228 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan or 0.04% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 2440 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.47 yuan or 0.39% [5]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Inventory**: As of January 16, 2026, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 746,100 tons, an increase of 10,100 tons or 1.37% from last week [10]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract of palm oil was 8,832 yuan/ton, an increase of 84 yuan or 0.96% from the previous day; the national average price was 8880 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan or 0.91% [8]. 3.4 Cotton - **Inventory**: The national commercial cotton inventory rose to 5.69 million tons, about 380,000 tons higher than the same period last year [13]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract CF2605 was 14,535 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan or 0.07% from the previous day; the CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 15,819 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37 yuan or 0.23% [11]. 3.5 Red Dates - **Inventory**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points of red dates was 14,415 tons, a decrease of 885 tons from last week, but 3,737 tons higher than the same period last year [16]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract CJ2605 was 8,740 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan or 0.46% from the previous day; the spot prices of various regions were basically unchanged [15]. 3.6 Live Pigs - **Inventory and Slaughter**: The national sample enterprise's live - pig inventory was 3.84775 million tons, a decrease of 8,570 tons from last month; the slaughter volume was 1.23309 million heads, an increase of 45,090 heads or 3.80% [17]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract Ih2603 was 11,470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan or 0.69% from the previous day; the national average slaughter price was 12,970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan or 1.74% [17].

2026 年 1 月 22 日 研 究 豆粕：隔夜美豆收涨，连粕或跟随反弹 豆一：豆类市场氛围好转，盘面或震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 国 泰 君 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4338 | +16（+0.37%） | 4310 +8（+0.19%） | | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2736 | +8（+0.29%） | +10（+0.37%） 2737 | | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） | 1065 | +12 （+1.14%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | 291.5 | +0（+0.00%） | n a | | | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） | | | | | 3120～3130， | 较昨-10至持平； | 现 ...

2026 年 01 月 22 日 铝：24000 一线震荡 氧化铝：反弹沽空 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | | | | | | 11 | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | | | | | | 24155 | 205 | -440 | 2185 | 3410 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | | | | | | 24100 | l | l | l | l | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | | | | | | 3118 | -1 | -72 | 223 | 469 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | | | | | | 46 ...

LPG：取暖需求支撑，PG 走势坚挺 丙烯：现货维持紧平衡 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 zhaoshucen@gtht.com 2026 年 1 月 22 日 【基本面跟踪】 LPG、丙烯基本面数据 | | | 2602 | 昨日收盘价 4,161 | 日涨幅 0.48% | 夜盘收盘价 夜盘涨幅 4,182 | 0.50% | | 2602 | 4,683 | 昨日成交 较前日变动 昨日持仓 较前日变动 -7,567 | 6,131 | -2,837 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG | 2603 | 4,069 | 0.37% | 4,104 | 0.86% | PG | 2603 | 43,015 | -11,592 | 88,100 | -2,868 | | 期货市场 | | 2604 | 4,346 | 0.58% | 4,377 | 0.71% ...

Group 1: Report Title and General Outlook - The report focuses on industrial silicon and polysilicon, with the outlook of industrial silicon being in a state of upstream production cuts and range - bound oscillation [1] Group 2: Fundamental Data Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2605 closing price is 8,780 yuan/ton, with changes of 35 yuan from T - 1, 25 yuan from T - 5, and 135 yuan from T - 22; its trading volume is 280,575 lots, down 57,731 lots from T - 1, up 34,639 lots from T - 5, and down 67,902 lots from T - 22; its open interest is 223,687 lots, down 865 from T - 1, down 11,402 from T - 5, and up 15,907 from T - 22 [2] - PS2605 closing price is 49,700 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan from T - 1 and up 755 yuan from T - 5; its trading volume is 15,484 lots, up 5,369 lots from T - 1 and down 5,458 lots from T - 5; its open interest is 43,920 lots, up 288 from T - 1 and down 4,519 from T - 5 [2] Basis - Industrial silicon spot premium/discount (against East China Si5530) is +470 yuan/ton, with changes of -35 yuan from T - 1, -25 yuan from T - 5, and -85 yuan from T - 22; against East China Si4210 is +70 yuan/ton, -35 yuan from T - 1, -25 yuan from T - 5, and 1,135 yuan from T - 22; against Xinjiang 99 silicon is -80 yuan/ton, -35 yuan from T - 1, -25 yuan from T - 5, and -140 yuan from T - 22 [2] - Polysilicon spot premium/discount (against N - type re - investment) is +5050 yuan/ton, 0 from T - 1, -1,255 yuan from T - 5, and 11,895 yuan from T - 22 [2] Price - Xinjiang 99 silicon price is 8700 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 and T - 5, and down 50 yuan from T - 22; Yunnan Si4210 price is 10000 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [2] - Polysilicon - N - type re - investment material price is 54500 yuan/ton, down 750 yuan from T - 1, down 250 yuan from T - 5, and up 2100 yuan from T - 22 [2] Profit - Silicon plant profit (Xinjiang new standard 553) is - 2351.5 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan from T - 1, down 325 yuan from T - 5, and down 70 yuan from T - 22; (Yunnan new standard 553) is - 5574 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan from T - 1, down 295 yuan from T - 5, and down 205 yuan from T - 22 [2] - Polysilicon enterprise profit is 10.1 yuan/kg, down 0.4 yuan from T - 1, up 0.1 yuan from T - 5, and up 2.4 yuan from T - 22 [2] Inventory - Industrial silicon - social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 55.5 million tons, up 0.3 million tons from T - 5 and 0.2 million tons from T - 22; enterprise inventory (sample enterprises) is 20.8 million tons, up 0.42 million tons from T - 5 and 2.1 million tons from T - 22; industry inventory (social + enterprise) is 76.3 million tons, up 0.72 million tons from T - 5 and 2.25 million tons from T - 22; futures warehouse receipt inventory is 6.0 million tons, up 0.2 million tons from T - 1, 0.4 million tons from T - 5, and 1.6 million tons from T - 22 [2] - Polysilicon - manufacturer inventory is 32.1 million tons, up 1.9 million tons from T - 5 and 2.8 million tons from T - 22 [2] Raw Material Cost - Silicon ore price in Xinjiang is 320 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 5 and T - 22; in Yunnan is 240 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from T - 5 and 20 yuan from T - 22 [2] - Washed coking coal price in Xinjiang is 1475 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 5 and T - 22; in Ningxia is 1200 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 5 and T - 22 [2] - Petroleum coke price: Maoming coke is 1400 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 5 and T - 22; Yangtze coke is 2340 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 5 and T - 22 [2] - Electrode price: graphite electrode is 12450 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 5 and T - 22; carbon electrode is 7200 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 5 and T - 22 [2] Polysilicon (Photovoltaic) Price and Profit - Polysilicon - N - type re - investment material price is 54500 yuan/ton, down 750 yuan from T - 1, down 250 yuan from T - 5, and up 2100 yuan from T - 22; trichlorosilane is 3425 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22; silicon powder (99 silicon) is 9800 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [2] - Silicon wafer (N - type - 210mm) price is 1.68 yuan/piece, down 0.01 yuan from T - 1 and T - 5, and up 0.20 yuan from T - 22; battery cell (TOPCon - 210mm) is 0.41 yuan/watt, unchanged from T - 1, up 0.02 yuan from T - 5, and down 0.71 yuan from T - 22; component (N - type - 210mm, centralized) is 0.711 yuan/watt, unchanged from T - 1, up 0.003 yuan from T - 5, and up 0.024 yuan from T - 22; photovoltaic glass (3.2mm) is 17.5 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from T - 1 and T - 5, and down 1.5 yuan from T - 22; photovoltaic - grade EVA price is 9000 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, up 299 yuan from T - 5, and down 65 yuan from T - 22 [2] - Polysilicon enterprise profit is 10.1 yuan/kg, down 0.4 yuan from T - 1, up 0.1 yuan from T - 5, and up 2.4 yuan from T - 22 [2] Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy Price and Profit - Organic silicon DMC price is 13900 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, up 50 yuan from T - 5, and up 300 yuan from T - 22; DMC enterprise profit is 1954 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, up 124 yuan from T - 5, and up 264 yuan from T - 22 [2] - Aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 23850 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, down 350 yuan from T - 5, and up 2200 yuan from T - 22; recycled aluminum enterprise profit is 140 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from T - 1, up 610 yuan from T - 5, and up 220 yuan from T - 22 [2] Group 3: Macro and Industry News - The battery end is still under cost pressure due to the rising silver price. The mainstream market quotation is 0.4 - 0.43 yuan/W, and some leading enterprises intend to raise the quotation to 0.45 yuan/W. The current mainstream domestic market transactions are concentrated at 0.4 - 0.41 yuan/W, and the latest overseas battery 183N transaction has reached 0.43 yuan/W due to the export tax policy [2][4] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook; the trend intensity of polysilicon is -1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - LLDPE imports in December exceeded expectations, and upstream quotes showed signs of weakness. The futures market was volatile, with upstream inventory transferred earlier, but recent mid - stream shipments led to looser enterprise quotes. The downstream was resistant to high prices due to compressed profit margins [1]. - The raw material end, crude oil prices strengthened, while the ethylene monomer segment weakened, and the profit of PE ethylene and ethane processes was repaired. The PE market continued to rebound, with trading concentrated in the mid - stream, and the downstream was not chasing the rising prices to replenish stocks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of L2605 was 6666, with a daily increase of 0.39%. The trading volume was 410,677, and the open interest increased by 9,150 [1]. - **Basis and Spread Data**: The basis of the 05 contract was - 146 (previous day: - 110), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 28 (previous day: - 24) [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: In the north, the spot price was 6,520 yuan/ton (previous day: 6,530 yuan/ton); in the east, it was 6,650 yuan/ton (previous day: 6,700 yuan/ton); in the south, it remained at 6,700 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Spot News - The futures market was volatile. Upstream inventory was transferred earlier, but recent mid - stream shipments led to looser enterprise quotes. The production of standard products continued to rise, and after the market correction, trading volume weakened significantly, and the basis strengthening was not as strong as before. The downstream was resistant to high prices due to compressed profit margins [1]. - The overseas market quotes increased, and LL supplies were scarce. The long - term import profit was available, and importer transactions increased. Downstream factories were mostly cautious and waiting [1]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - The raw material end, crude oil prices strengthened, and the Middle East geopolitical risks had not been released. The ethylene monomer segment weakened, and the profit of PE ethylene and ethane processes was repaired [2]. - The PE market continued to rebound, with trading concentrated in the mid - stream, and the downstream was not chasing the rising prices to replenish stocks. The downstream demand for agricultural films was weakening, and the packaging film industry maintained rigid demand. After the recent price decline, the willingness of the mid - and downstream to hold goods weakened. The upstream offered discounts to sell at the end of the year, and the factory inventory decreased slightly, with a weak basis [2]. - On the supply side, BASF Zhanjiang was gradually in trial production. The planned maintenance in January decreased compared with the previous month, and some FD switched back to standard products. In the medium term, attention should still be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high existing production capacity and weakening demand [2]. 3.4 Trend Intensity The LLDPE trend intensity was - 1 [3]

市场分析 2026-01-21日沪镍主力合约2602开于142600元/吨，收于143060元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化0.39%，当 日成交量为745668（+50522）手，持仓量为75892（-3113）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约整体表现为宽幅波动、尾盘收涨，多空博弈激烈，核心驱动来自宏观情 绪、外盘联动与供需预期的综合影响。日内有色金属及贵金属板块普涨，一定程度上带动了沪镍价格走 势。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，日内镍矿价格延续上行态势，市场看涨与挺价情绪主导，实际成交价格 重心进一步上移。菲律宾矿山高报价持续引导市场。国内市场有1.5%品位镍矿以CIF57美元成交，另有 大型工厂对该品位的心理采购价位在58-59美元。同时，1.4%品位CIF53美元左右的报价已出现，但买方 接受意愿较低，凸显市场博弈加剧。此外，菲律宾南部矿山1.3%品位镍矿以FOB35.5美元的价格成交并 运往印尼，矿端心态普遍看涨。印尼方面，市场价格在前期大幅上调后暂时企稳。市场正在消化当前高 位成本，并观望后续官方动作。据市场预期，随着LME镍价走强，2月内贸基准价（HPM）仍有上调空 间，成本支撑预期持续存在， ...