Core Viewpoint - The construction of a nationwide unified market is a strategic initiative for China's economic reform, emphasizing the role of the futures market as a crucial component in this process [1][4]. Group 1: Role of the Futures Market - The futures market serves as an important venue for resource allocation and is a key tool in building the nationwide unified market [2]. - It acts as a "barometer" for price discovery, providing a basis for value consensus across the unified market, exemplified by the Shanghai Futures Exchange's copper futures pricing becoming a benchmark for domestic spot trading [2]. - The futures market offers effective risk management tools, ensuring stability for large-scale transactions across regions and cycles, which is essential as the unified market expands [2]. Group 2: Resource Allocation and Market Integration - The futures market functions as an intelligent hub for resource allocation, guiding the optimal distribution of production factors nationwide based on current supply and demand as well as future market expectations [2]. - It promotes the coordination of industries, such as the apple industry in Shaanxi and Shandong, by providing unified price signals that help avoid regional surpluses or shortages [2]. Group 3: Standardization and Market Rules - The futures market acts as a practical platform for institutional unification, providing a testing ground for the integration of national market rules through its standardized contracts and trading regulations [3]. - The development of the futures market encourages the standardization of the spot market in areas such as quality standards and logistics, exemplified by the impact of rebar and crude oil futures on industry standards [3]. Group 4: Challenges and Future Directions - Despite its benefits, the futures market faces challenges such as insufficient liquidity for certain products and low participation from real enterprises [3]. - Future efforts should focus on enriching the futures product system, particularly with more agricultural and energy-related products, and improving market participant structures to enhance the utilization of futures tools [3].

Group 1 - The market believes that CBOT soybeans may have established a short-term bottom at the end of June [1] - CBOT corn shows strong signs of establishing a short-term bottom [1] - A seasonal upward trend in the summer may be about to start [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - **Overall Market**: The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the rapeseed industry, including futures, spot, upstream, downstream, and industry news. It also provides views on rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil markets [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic rapeseed meal market is under pressure due to the increase in soybean supply and the good substitution advantage of soybean meal. However, the demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture is increasing. The market may remain volatile in the short - term [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic rapeseed oil market is in the off - season of consumption with sufficient supply and high inventory pressure. But the decrease in oil mill operating rate and potential tightening of Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations may affect the market. The price may fluctuate more significantly in the short - term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Prices and Positions**: Futures prices of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, ICE rapeseed, and domestic rapeseed are reported, along with changes in positions such as net buying volume and open interest. For example, the futures closing price of rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9619 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the net buying volume of the top 20 futures positions in rapeseed oil is 27560 hands, a decrease of 5099 hands [2]. - **Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spreads of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal are given, with the rapeseed oil spread at 69 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan/ton) and the rapeseed meal spread at - 781 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts for rapeseed oil is 100 (unchanged), and for rapeseed meal is 16855 (down 3294) [2]. Spot Market - **Prices**: Spot prices of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed, and related products are reported, along with price changes. For example, the spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9730 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton, and the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2500 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [2]. - **Ratios and Spreads**: The oil - meal ratio is 3.82 (up 0.07), and the spreads between rapeseed oil and soybean oil, rapeseed oil and palm oil, and soybean meal and rapeseed meal are also provided [2]. Upstream Situation - **Production and Import**: Global rapeseed production forecasts are given, with the global rapeseed production forecast at 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons). Rapeseed import volume decreased by 15.37% compared to the previous period, and the import cost of rapeseed increased by 88.82 yuan/ton to 5242.76 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 150,000 tons (unchanged), and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 11.46% (down 2.8%) [2]. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The inventories of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal in coastal, eastern, and Guangxi regions are reported, with most showing a downward trend. For example, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 111,500 tons (down 10,500 tons) [2]. - **Import Volume**: The monthly import volumes of rapeseed oil, mustard oil, and rapeseed meal increased, with the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil at 340,000 tons (up 100,000 tons) and rapeseed meal at 287,900 tons (up 41,300 tons) [2]. Downstream Situation - **Demand**: The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil is 30,000 tons (up 1,900 tons), and of rapeseed meal is 34,800 tons (up 6,100 tons). The monthly production of feed and edible vegetable oil is reported, along with the monthly retail sales of catering [2]. Option Market - **Volatility**: The implied volatilities of call and put options for rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal, as well as their historical volatilities, are provided. For example, the implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for rapeseed meal is 16.59% (down 0.98%) [2]. Industry News - **ICE Rapeseed**: On July 2, the most actively traded November ICE rapeseed contract rose 24.80 Canadian dollars, or 3.5%, to settle at 734.50 Canadian dollars per ton, following the rise of US soybean oil [2]. - **USDA Data**: As of June 1, the US soybean inventory was 1.008 billion bushels, up 4% year - on - year, higher than analysts' expectations. The 2025 US soybean planting area was 83.38 million acres, lower than previous forecasts and last year's level [2]. - **Canada**: Statistics Canada revised up the 2024 rapeseed production forecast to 1.918 million tons and revised down the 2025 rapeseed planting area to 21.5 million acres [2]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil Views - **Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic rapeseed meal market is affected by the increase in soybean supply, but the demand in aquaculture is increasing. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The market may remain volatile in the short - term [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic rapeseed oil market is in the off - season of consumption with sufficient supply and high inventory pressure. But the decrease in oil mill operating rate and potential tightening of Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations may affect the market. The price may fluctuate more significantly in the short - term [2]. Key Points to Monitor - The weekly rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions, as well as the development of Sino - Canadian and Canada - US trade disputes [2].

Core Viewpoint - The corn starch market is experiencing slight price increases, with the benchmark price rising to 2944.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.14% increase compared to the beginning of the month [1] Price Overview - As of July 3, 2023, various corn starch prices are reported, with edible grade starch priced at 2900 CNY/ton in Henan province and food-grade starch at 3000 CNY/ton in Zhengzhou [2] - The futures market shows the main corn starch contract closing at 2731.00 CNY/ton, with a slight decline of 0.15% [2] Production and Processing Data - From June 26 to July 2, 2023, the total corn processing volume reached 544,700 tons, a decrease of 0.15 million tons from the previous week, while corn starch production increased to 264,900 tons, up by 0.02 million tons [3] - The operating rate for corn processing plants is reported at 51.2%, an increase of 0.05% from the previous week [3] Market Analysis - According to Nanhua Futures, the corn starch market is currently stable, with companies primarily fulfilling previous orders and maintaining a watchful stance on raw material prices [4]

焦煤焦炭产业日报 2025/7/3 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本 报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得 以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改 。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 856.00 | +12.50↑ | J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1445.50 | +3.50↑ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 757780.00 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trend of soybean meal is volatile consolidation, while rapeseed meal, palm oil, cotton, jujube, and live pigs are expected to have short - term rebounds. However, the long - term outlook for live pigs is still bearish, with prices likely to grind at the bottom under pressure [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - From the CPC monthly outlook, the soybean planting weather in the US in July is generally favorable, and the South American harvest is basically settled. In China, ports and oil mills are in the inventory accumulation phase, and feed enterprises' inventory replenishment has recovered significantly. The June USDA report is neutral, with a slight decrease in US soybean planting area and limited impact on production reduction. The market fluctuates around the fundamentals, and it is expected to oscillate below the 10 - day moving average in 3 - 5 days. The main contract range is [2920, 2970] [1][4]. - The latest futures price of the main contract is 2944 yuan/ton, down 0.57% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 2922.86 yuan/ton, down 0.25%. The national average soybean crushing profit is - 207.6608 yuan/ton, down 2.57 yuan from the previous day [2]. Rapeseed Meal - Currently, the inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in oil mills is not under pressure, but the high commercial rapeseed meal inventory is bearish for the July contract. From June to August, rapeseed imports are expected to decline significantly year - on - year, and the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and the strength of old - crop Canadian rapeseed support the price. Canada's June rapeseed planting area is lower than expected, but the termination of US - Canada trade negotiations is a greater negative factor. Short - selling should be cautious due to low imports and high tariffs. The main contract range is [2550, 2600] [1][5]. - As of July 1, the total rapeseed meal inventory in major regions decreased by 1.41 tons from the previous week. In the domestic market, the oversupply of soybean meal has squeezed the market share of rapeseed meal [5]. Palm Oil - China's palm oil commercial inventory is low, and imports have improved but are still lower than last year in the second half. The Southeast Asian palm oil inventory accumulation cycle has started, with a downward - moving oscillation center. However, India's good import prospects in June, the reduction of import tariffs since May 30, and the promotion of the B20 policy are positive factors. Before the US biodiesel policy is determined, short - selling is cautious. It is expected to remain below the previous high this week. The main contract range is [8360, 8530] [1][8]. - As of June 27, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory increased by 23.57% week - on - week and 25.67% year - on - year. Malaysia's June palm oil exports increased by 4.52% month - on - month, and India's June palm oil imports surged 61% month - on - month [7]. Cotton - In the international market, the sowing in the US main cotton - producing areas is nearly finished, with an improvement in the excellent - good rate and drought conditions. The USDA's planting intention is higher than expected, and the ICE market is expected to be weak in the short term. In China, new cotton is growing well, and the actual sown area is 5% higher than expected. The high - temperature impact in Xinjiang is limited and is gradually easing. The de - stocking of domestic cotton is fast, but downstream orders are weak after a short - term rebound. The futures price is expected to rebound under pressure in the short term. The main contract range is [13750, 13900] [1][12]. - The main contract CF2509 closed at 13805 yuan/ton, up 0.51%. The domestic spot price dropped 0.33% to 15160 yuan/ton. The US cotton sowing progress is 95%, with a planting area of 1010 million acres, a 10% year - on - year decrease, and an excellent - good rate of 51%. India's sown area increased 7% year - on - year [10]. Jujube - The new - season jujube trees are growing well, and the actual fruit - setting situation in the producing areas shows no obvious signs of significant yield reduction. The old - crop inventory is at a historical high, and the inventory de - stocking is slow. The demand is expected to weaken in the quarter, with no obvious increase recently. The short - term futures price is expected to rebound under pressure, and attention should be paid to the potential fluctuations in the second - half of the month due to the final yield determination. The main contract range is [10850, 11450] [1][14]. - The main contract CJ2601 closed at 11055 yuan/ton, up 1.98%. The physical inventory of 36 sample points increased by 8 tons week - on - week and is higher than the same period last year [14]. Live Pigs - The short - term rebound is due to the出栏 rhythm of leading enterprises and the entry of second - fattening, which has temporarily alleviated the supply pressure. However, the production capacity has not been cleared, and the price increase may not be sustainable. In the long run, the supply is expected to increase, and the price is likely to grind at the bottom under pressure. It is recommended to adopt a defensive strategy of short - selling on rallies for 2025 contracts. The main contract range is [14200, 14500] [1][17]. - The main contract Lh2509 closed at 14340 yuan/ton, up 3.20%. The domestic live pig spot price increased 0.07% to 15090 yuan/ton. From January to May 2025, the number of newborn piglets increased, and the inventory of breeding sows in May was 4042 million, a 0.1% month - on - month increase [16].

石油沥青日报 | 2025-07-03 市场矛盾有限，现货价格保持平稳 市场分析 1、7月2日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3571元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨5元/吨，涨幅0.14%； 持仓227295手，环比上周439手，成交152378手，环比下降3466手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3900—4086元/吨；山东，3620—4070元/吨；华南，3600—3750元/吨； 华东，3650—3800元/吨。 昨日华北市场沥青现货价格窄幅上涨，其余地区沥青现货价格大体企稳，沥青盘面则延续窄幅震荡态势。就沥青 自身基本面而言，整体供需两弱格局延续，库存维持低位。原油价格大幅回落后，炼厂生产成本有所修复，炼厂 生产积极性增强，另外部分企业消费税抵扣比例上调有利于提高开工负荷，但整体增量不多，当前供应压力有限。 与此同时，天气与资金因素制约下，沥青刚性需求表现也一般，情绪仍较为谨慎，市场驱动不足。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-07-03 养殖端缩量挺价，猪价偏强震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约14340元/吨，较前交易日变动+475.00元/吨，幅度+3.43%。现货方面，河南地 区外三元生猪价格15.34元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.19元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+1000，较前交易日变动-285；江 苏地区外三元生猪价格 15.54元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.16元/公斤，现货基差LH09+1200，较前交易日变动-315； 四川地区外三元生猪价格14.68元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.23元/公斤，现货基差LH09+340，较前交易日变动-245。 据农业农村部监测，7月2日"农产品批发价格200指数"为112.38，比昨天下降0.01个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指数 为112.37，与昨天持平。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.54元/公斤，比昨天上升1.7%；牛肉63.64元/公斤， 比昨天上升0.3%；羊肉59.73元/公斤，比昨天上升0.8%；鸡蛋7.10元/公斤，比昨天下降0.8%；白条鸡17.10元/公斤， 比昨天下降0.1%。 市场分析 ...

化工日报 | 2025-07-03 海外装置运行不稳，EG震荡上涨 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4299元/吨（较前一交易日变动+26元/吨，幅度+0.61%），EG华东市场现货价 4360元/吨（较前一交易日变动+32元/吨，幅度+0.74%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）74元/吨（环比+5元/ 吨）。沙特装置因电力因素大面积短停，同时马来西亚一套75万吨/年的乙二醇装置上游裂解因故停车，乙二醇装置 运行稳定性欠佳，海外产量恢复不如预期，EG价格震荡上行。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-79美元/吨（环比+0美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为2元/吨（环比-7 元/吨）。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内供应端陆续恢复，短期供需结构依旧表现良性去库，但是仓单陆续注销流出 后场内可流转现货将得到一定补充；海外供应方面，近期海外装置逐步重启，供应预期宽松，7月初外轮到货集中。 需求端现实坚挺，但几家瓶片大厂7月初检修计划集中，需求预期偏弱，关注实际兑现情况。 策略 单边：中性 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 原油价格波动，煤价大幅波动，宏观政策超预期，地缘变化超预期 2 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-03 受资金情绪及消息面影响，碳酸锂盘面偏强运行 市场分析 2025年7月2日，碳酸锂主力合约2509开于62800元/吨，收于63960元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价收涨3.19%。当 日成交量为540435手，持仓量为325574手，较前一交易日减少1102手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货升水电碳2310 元/吨。所有合约总持仓589634手，较前一交易日减少2761手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日增加167850手，成 交量652707，整体投机度为1.11。当日碳酸锂仓单23180手，较上个交易日增加240手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年7月2日电池级碳酸锂报价6.09-6.24万元/吨，较前一交易日上涨0.035万元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价5.955-6.055万元/吨，较前一交易日上涨0.035万元/吨。碳酸锂现货成交价格重心呈现震荡上行。 根据SMM调研，当前市场呈现\"上游挺价、下游压价\"的博弈格局：冶炼厂报价维持高位，但下游正极材料厂采购 仍以刚需为主，市场整体成交清淡。不过部分刚性需求订单仍支撑价格小幅上行，现货价格重心有所抬升。供需 ...