中国和欧盟在经贸领域有着密切的合作，实际上中国和欧盟之前有签署投资协定，但是欧洲议会却搁置了相关的协议。中国和欧盟在经济上有很大的互补， 欧盟许多企业在中国有投资，从而可以在中国市场获得巨大的利益，如今中国企业也已经在欧盟国家投资，尤其是在新能源汽车领域，中国已经领先欧盟， 为此中国企业在欧盟的投资，已经可以带动欧盟相关产业的发展。随着中国的崛起，欧盟已经越来越需要中国的支持，但是在美国的作梗之下，欧盟还有不 同的声音。 在美国坚持对欧盟加征30%关税的时候，冯德莱恩访问中国，无疑是给了美国一个警告，实际上欧盟产品在中国也是拥有一定的优势，如果欧盟企业在中国 扩大投资，会给欧盟带来更多的利益，包括通过技术合作，显然对于欧盟经济的发展可以提供支持。中国的崛起，已经带动了东南亚国家的发展，显然欧盟 也看得到中国的带动作用，欧盟原本对美国还是有很大的幻想，但是美国给予欧盟30%的关税，着实让欧盟感到了痛苦，为此欧盟是会有调整的。 名义上美国还是世界上最大的经济体，不过如果从实际购买力来看，美国已经不是最大的经济体，美国的优势在于使用美元，美元是国际贸易的主要支付货 币，为此美国可以通过美元购买廉价的商品，但是也是因 ...

日元兑美元涨超0.6%。美元指数跌超0.2%。欧元涨超0.2%。瑞士法郎涨约0.2%。 21日周一，欧美关税谈判尚未明朗之际，美股期货小幅走高，欧股持平观望。日本执政联盟惨败，引发政治不确定性，短期利好日元 但打压日本股市，日元一度涨超0.7%。此外，黄金小幅走高，油价小幅下跌。 以下为核心资产走势： 美股三大指数期货均涨超0.2%。 欧股开盘基本持平，泛欧股指、德股基本持平。 贸易方面，欧盟各国本周开会准备"应急预案"，防止特朗普8月1日强推高关税、导致欧美贸易谈判破裂。 美债收益率四日连跌，基准10年期美债收益率下行约3个基点。 现货黄金涨超0.4%，现货白银涨超0.6%。 标普500股指期货小幅涨超0.2%。 | 泛欧股指、德股基本持平。个股中，车企Stellantis NV上半年亏损23亿欧元（约合27亿美元），主要因为重组费用、销量下滑以及美国 | | --- | 关税的冲击。 | -- 德国DAX30 | 7 | 24,520.45 | 24,240.00 | + 4.46 | +U.UI70 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 脂 英国富时100 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses China's recent adjustments to its export control regulations, particularly in response to the ongoing trade tensions with the United States and the European Union, indicating a strategic shift to strengthen its position in the global market [1][4]. Group 1: Export Control Adjustments - The Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Science and Technology in China released a new "Catalog of Technologies Prohibited and Restricted from Export," which includes new restrictions on battery cathode material preparation technology and modifications to existing restrictions on non-ferrous metal metallurgy technology [1][4]. - A clear distinction has been made regarding technologies that are prohibited from export and those that are restricted, which require permission for export [4]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - China's adjustments signal its readiness for a prolonged trade conflict, as the U.S. and Western countries have faced significant impacts from China's export controls, leading to a preliminary trade framework agreement between China and the U.S. [5]. - The necessity for China to prepare for a comprehensive trade agreement with the U.S. is emphasized, as many details remain to be negotiated, and external pressures from the U.S. on other countries to isolate China could pose risks [7][9]. Group 3: Diplomatic Efforts - China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi has been actively visiting Europe and ASEAN countries, which are crucial trade partners, to strengthen alliances amid the trade tensions [9]. - Despite the EU's initial response to the U.S. tariffs, it is anticipated that they may ultimately compromise, while China is encouraged to pursue one-on-one cooperation with individual EU member states [10]. Group 4: Strategic Resource Management - By tightening export controls on battery technology, China aims to leverage its position in negotiations with Europe, particularly in the electric vehicle sector, while also countering Western supply chain restructuring efforts [12]. - The article highlights the potential vulnerability of the U.S. and Europe regarding lithium resources, suggesting that China's technology export restrictions could undermine the so-called "critical mineral alliance" [12].

Overseas Macro - The global manufacturing PMI index in June recorded 50.3%, returning to the expansion zone, indicating a recovery in global manufacturing activity[1] - The impact of the tariff war on the economy is weakening, with concerns about high tariffs gradually diminishing as the U.S. continues tariff negotiations with various countries[1] - U.S. inflation is expected to continue rising in the coming months due to the transmission effects of tariffs, which will reduce the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[1][19] Domestic Macro - In Q2, China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, exceeding the annual growth target of 5%[2] - However, nominal GDP growth in Q2 was only 3.9%, a significant decline of 0.6 percentage points from Q1, marking the lowest growth rate in 2023[2] - In June, retail sales growth fell to 4.8%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from May, indicating weakening consumer demand[2][26] - Fixed asset investment growth in June was only 0.5%, down 2.4 percentage points from May, the lowest since 2022[2][28] - Exports in June increased by 5.8% year-on-year, but the decline in exports to the U.S. was still significant at 16.1%[2][31] Policy and Market Outlook - Global macro policy certainty is gradually increasing, with expectations for new policies to be introduced in the latter part of Q3 to support economic growth[3][38] - The stock market has seen significant increases in China, the U.S., and Japan, while oil prices have declined due to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East[3][40] - The overall economic pressure in China may increase in the second half of the year, necessitating attention to the effectiveness of incremental policies[2][35]

Group 1 - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for 1-year and 5-year loans remains unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively as of July 21, 2025 [1] - The recent stability in policy interest rates has kept the LPR pricing foundation unchanged, with the 7-day reverse repurchase rate serving as the new pricing anchor [2] - China's GDP growth in Q2 was 5.2% year-on-year, with a cumulative growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year, indicating a solid foundation for achieving the annual growth target [2] Group 2 - The net interest margin of commercial banks has been under pressure, with the average net interest margin dropping to a historical low of 1.43% at the end of Q1, a decrease of 9 basis points from the end of the previous year [4] - The weighted average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans in the first half of the year was approximately 3.3%, down about 45 basis points year-on-year, while the rate for new personal housing loans was about 3.1%, down about 60 basis points [4] - The high proportion of time deposits continues to limit the overall downward space for deposit costs, despite a significant reduction in deposit rates [4] Group 3 - There is a possibility of interest rate cuts in Q3 or Q4, with expectations that the LPR may follow suit [5] - The ongoing trade tensions are likely to slow down export growth, necessitating a focus on domestic demand [5] - The low nominal interest rates combined with persistently low PPI are leading to higher real financing costs, which may impact effective credit demand [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report provides an overview of the performance and investment strategy of the Bosera Double Monthly Enjoy 60-Day Rolling Bond Fund for the second quarter of 2025, highlighting its focus on maximizing returns while managing risks in a favorable bond market environment [1][10]. Fund Overview - Fund Name: Bosera Double Monthly Enjoy 60-Day Rolling Bond Fund - Fund Manager: Bosera Fund Management Co., Ltd. - Fund Custodian: China Postal Savings Bank Co., Ltd. - Total Fund Shares at Period End: 3,671,367,885.46 shares [1][3]. Investment Objectives and Strategies - The fund aims to achieve returns exceeding its benchmark through a combination of top-down and bottom-up analysis, utilizing both qualitative and quantitative methods [2]. - Investment strategies include term structure strategy, credit strategy, swap strategy, spread strategy, and individual bond selection strategy, with a focus on maximizing credit premium while controlling interest rate risk [2]. Performance Metrics - The fund's performance is benchmarked against a composite index: 85% of the China Bond Composite Wealth Index (for maturities under one year) and 15% of the after-tax one-year fixed deposit rate [2]. - Net Value Growth Rates for the past periods: - Last 3 months: 0.57% - Last 6 months: 0.88% - Last year: 2.36% - Last 3 years: 9.71% [5]. Financial Indicators - As of June 30, 2025, the net value of Class A shares is 1.1339 CNY, and Class C shares is 1.1251 CNY [11]. - The fund's total assets include 94.30% in bonds, with no holdings in stocks or asset-backed securities [13]. Market Environment - The bond market experienced a downward trend in yields during the second quarter, influenced by external demand uncertainties and a shift in central bank policy towards stabilizing growth [10][11]. - The current market conditions are deemed favorable for bonds, with expectations of potential monetary easing measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [11]. Management Report - The fund management adheres to regulations and maintains a commitment to fair trading practices, ensuring no unfair trading or conflicts of interest occurred during the reporting period [10]. - The fund manager has not engaged in any transactions involving the fund's own capital during the reporting period [18].

Group 1 - The core strategy of the Trump administration has been to impose tariffs on other countries as a means of economic warfare, with a particular focus on China, which has not yielded the desired results [1][3] - Following setbacks with China, the Trump administration shifted its focus to Vietnam and the European Union, applying pressure to these economies [3][5] - Vietnam is facing a significant economic challenge due to the imposed tariffs, which could lead to a loss of its competitive advantage and potential relocation of factories to other Southeast Asian countries [5][7] Group 2 - The European Union is also under pressure from the Trump administration, with proposed tariffs of up to 50%, highlighting the ongoing trade tensions [7][9] - The unilateral tariff approach by the U.S. has limitations, potentially harming American businesses and reducing market opportunities [9][10] - The actions taken by the Trump administration may inadvertently strengthen China's trade relationships with ASEAN countries, as these nations reassess their ties with the U.S. [12][14] Group 3 - The instability of U.S. trade policies may lead the European Union to seek more stable partnerships, potentially favoring cooperation with China [14][16] - Ultimately, the protective tariff policies may backfire on the U.S. economy, leading to internal opposition as American businesses struggle under these conditions [16]

Group 1: Impact of Tariff War on Prices - The PPI in June 2025 decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, the lowest since August 2023, while CPI remained around 0%[12] - Brent crude oil prices fell from $74.95 per barrel to $62.82 per barrel following the announcement of tariffs, leading to significant declines in PPI for the petroleum industry of -8.6%, -11.1%, and -9.0% from April to June 2025[2] - Exports to the U.S. for textiles, clothing, and furniture saw a drop of over 40% in May 2025, resulting in a significant decrease in related export prices, such as an 8.3% drop in the average price of clothing imported from China[17] Group 2: Future Price Trends and Recommendations - International commodity prices are expected to remain under pressure, with OPEC+ increasing production, which may lead to further downward pressure on prices[31] - The negative impact of the tariff war on China's overall exports may gradually become more pronounced, with potential price declines for more products[32] - To counteract the tariff impacts, it is crucial to expand domestic effective demand through policies that stimulate consumption and investment, particularly in the real estate sector[42]

特朗普再次拿出他的一贯手段，这次他似乎想联合韩国一起"坑"中国。随着美国单方面加征关税的议题 被提上日程，韩国立刻成了首批收到"关税函"的"幸运儿"，这让韩国陷入了深深的不安。 但韩国的预期与现实之间却有着巨大的偏差。原本韩国以为这次关税只是美国的一个"威胁"策略，但实 际上，美国准备再次重施老计，利用对韩国的贸易施压来迫使其"乖乖就范"，以换取对中国的利益。美 国如今完全撕下了面具，不再遮掩自己的意图，直接要求韩国拿出实质措施，在经济上听从美国，尤其 是在对中国的制衡上。 就在特朗普提出这一系列条件时，韩国可能还在抱有侥幸心态，想要找出自己的"退路"。然而，实际上 中国早已洞察先机，准备好应对可能发生的一切，这一切的前提就是"坐等时机"。 美国对日韩盟友征收高额关税，计划从8月1日起执行，这几乎已经成了铁板钉钉的事实。即便是韩国总 统李在明与日本首相石破茂坚持不妥协，特朗普恐怕也不会轻易让步。说白了，这次美国出手，目的就 是彻底让韩国与日本这两个盟友屈服。 虽然特朗普这次出手狠辣，但也并非毫无顾忌。毕竟，这次加税措施对韩国来说，已经算是"最轻 的"了，25%的关税比起其他国家的税率（如巴西，竟然被加征了两倍 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights widespread public dissent against the current administration, with over 1,600 protests occurring simultaneously across the U.S. on July 17, criticizing cuts to healthcare and welfare programs [1] - Legal actions have been initiated by 20 states against the administration for allegedly illegal cuts to essential programs, exacerbated by recent natural disasters [1] - Farmers in Texas are facing significant challenges due to a 30% increase in import prices for agricultural machinery parts, leading to public demonstrations [1] Group 2 - The administration's proposed 30% tariffs on the EU have backfired, with the EU extending the suspension of retaliatory tariffs, causing distress among German automakers [3] - A split within the Republican party has emerged, with four members opposing the administration's tariff strategy, leading to a requirement for congressional approval before further tariff increases [3] - Public sentiment is shifting negatively, with a Yale University study indicating that households may incur an additional $3,800 annually due to these tariffs, contributing to a drop in approval ratings to 43% [3] Group 3 - China has significantly reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, selling $189 billion in March and $413 billion in July, which has impacted the U.S. bond market and increased yields [5] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that continued tariff increases could slow U.S. economic growth to 1.2% by 2025, prompting concerns from major corporations [5] - Boeing's CEO has publicly criticized the tariff strategy, likening it to adding weight to an aircraft, which hinders performance and increases operational costs [5] Group 4 - The article discusses the broader implications of the "America First" policy, which has led to unintended consequences, including rising inflation and consumer costs [7] - The administration's tariff strategy has not only failed to pressure the EU but has also created internal economic challenges, with consumers bearing the brunt of increased living costs [7] - The article concludes that the administration's policy decisions may ultimately harm its own interests, as the consequences of the tariff strategy become increasingly evident [7]