行情回顾： 国际黄金周四（6月12日）大幅收涨，开盘价3333.18美元/盎司，最高价3398.88美元/盎司，最低价3319.28美元/ 盎司，收盘价3385.73美元/盎司。 消息面： 周四公布的美国至6月7日当周初请失业金人数录得24.8万人，高于市场预期24万人，前值为24.7万人；美国5月 PPI年率录得2.6%，符合市场预期，前值为2.4%；美国5月PPI月率录的0.1%，低于市场预期0.2%，前值 为-0.5%。 美国劳工统计局周四发布的报告显示，受商品和服务成本温和影响，美国5月核心PPI数据不及预期。尽管目前 较高关税对美国民众影响尚不显著，但经济学家指出，随着企业试图避免利润率进一步走软，下半年价格压力 可能加剧。PPI数据显示，继4月下滑后，5月批发商和零售商利润率有所扩大，尤其是汽车和机械批发领域。 今年以来，利润率逐月波动，凸显贸易政策对价格和需求影响的不确定性。分析师对PPI报告尤为关注，因其 部分组成部分用于计算美联储青睐的通胀指标（PCE数据）。5月表现疲软的领域：机票价格、投资组合管理 费下降，医疗成本也保持温和。PCE报告将于本月晚些时候发布。 据以色列时报记者：以色列防长 ...

摘要现货黄金周四（6月12日）日K收涨，美市尾盘，现货黄金收报3385.37美元/盎司，上涨30.35美元或 0.90%，日内最高上探3398.86美元/盎司，最低触及3338.29美元/盎司。 现货黄金周四（6月12日）日K收涨，美市尾盘，现货黄金收报3385.37美元/盎司，上涨30.35美元或 0.90%，日内最高上探3398.86美元/盎司，最低触及3338.29美元/盎司。 美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)数据显示，截至6月12日，黄金ETF持有量为937.91吨，较上一交易日 减持3.72吨。 黄金ETF最新持仓数据： | 日期 | 净持仓量（盎司） | 净持仓量（吨） | 总价值（美元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-06-12 | 30154864.16 | 937.91 | 102254006159.12 | | 2025-06-11 | 30035071.18 | 934.19 | 99995692490.02 | （注：黄金ETF持仓增加，表明买盘增加，市场看涨黄金的情绪升温，利多黄金；黄金ETF持仓减少， 表明卖盘增加，市场看跌黄金的情绪升温， ...

智通财经APP获悉，当地时间12日凌晨，以色列对伊朗发动军事空袭，伊朗首都德黑兰听到连续爆炸声，目前伊方尚未公布爆炸原因。以空军正在对伊 朗境内数十个与核计划和其他军事设施相关的目标发动空袭，并且将此次行动命名为"狮子的力量"。以军称，伊朗拥有足够的浓缩铀，可以在几天内制 造出多枚炸弹，因此需要采取行动应对这一"迫在眉睫的威胁"。 金融市场方面，在以色列向伊朗发动空袭之后，风险偏好趋于回暖、股票市场看涨情绪升温以及黄金、美元等避险资产投资情绪大幅降温的市场格局可 谓被该事件彻底"重塑"。IG 市场策略师托尼·西卡莫尔 (Tony Sycamore) 表示，以色列对伊朗核计划和军事目标的空袭是"令人震惊的升级"和"对金融市场 风险偏好与风险情绪回暖的严重打击"。 "这发生在宏观和系统性基金重建多头仓位、投资者情绪回升至看涨水平的关键时刻。在我们等待进一步消息和伊朗可能做出的回应的同时，随着交易 员在周末前削减风险偏好仓位，我们可能会看到风险情绪进一步恶化，以及避险氛围愈发浓厚。"西卡莫尔表示。 以军发动空袭的消息传出之后，全球股市应声大幅下跌，美股三大股指期货暴跌，英伟达、苹果以及谷歌等科技巨头夜盘集体下行。避 ...

Group 1 - Israel launched airstrikes against Iran, targeting military and nuclear facilities, with the operation named "Lion's Strength" [3][6][9] - Israeli Defense Minister Katz announced that the military action would continue for several days, indicating a prolonged conflict [4][10] - The strikes reportedly resulted in the deaths of an Iranian military commander and a senior nuclear scientist [1] Group 2 - Following the attacks, oil prices surged, with Brent and WTI crude futures both rising over 8% [14] - Oil and gas stocks in the A-share market opened significantly higher, with companies like Tongyuan Petroleum and Beiken Energy hitting their daily limit [13] - Gold prices also increased, with spot gold surpassing $3,420 per ounce, reflecting a rise of over 1% [11][16]

周五，以色列对伊朗本土发动空袭，市场立即陷入恐慌模式——油价飙升、黄金走高、亚洲股市和美股 期货应声下跌。 据华尔街见闻此前援引央视新闻报道，以空军正在对伊朗境内数十个与核计划和其他军事设施相关的目 标发动空袭，并且将此次行动命名为"狮子的力量"。以军称，伊朗拥有足够的浓缩铀，可以在几天内制 造出多枚炸弹，因此需要采取行动应对这一"迫在眉睫的威胁"。以色列总理表示，以军对伊朗核设施的 军事行动将持续数日，直至消除威胁为止。 这场地缘政治危机恰逢全球股市处于高位，华尔街策略师们正紧盯一个关键问题：德黑兰的报复会有多 猛烈？ 市场脆弱性加剧，伊朗反击规模成关键变量 Global X ETFs悉尼投资策略师Billy Leung指出："这与昨夜的看涨情绪形成鲜明反转，当时科技乐观主 义、温和通胀和轻仓位让市场倾向于风险偏好——而以色列对伊朗的直接打击瞬间切断了这一叙事。" Leung将当前局势与过去的中东危机进行对比，他表示："如2020年的Soleimani袭击、2019年的油轮攻 击，我们看到了同样的初始反应：原油上涨，美债和瑞士法郎走强。关键是这是否能保持克制——历史 表明，如果升级有限，市场往往会消化冲击。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are rising rapidly, with Trump indicating that Israel may attack Iran, which will lead to a short - term weakening of the US dollar index and a strong rise in gold prices [2][3][16][20]. - The US economic data shows signs of weakness, such as the initial jobless claims and May PPI being weaker than expected, which affects the performance of various financial and commodity markets [15][16][23][24]. - Different commodity markets have different trends. For example, the soybean meal in the agricultural product market is relatively strong but is expected to fluctuate around 3000; the sugar market is expected to be weak due to the expected increase in Brazilian sugar production; the coal price in the black metal market may experience a second dip; and the silicon material market in the non - ferrous metal market is facing price decline risks [30][36][39][50]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump said that Israel's attack on Iran is "very likely", and the US economic data is weak. The initial jobless claims and May PPI are weaker than expected. Gold prices are expected to be strong with increased volatility [14][15][16]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's statement that Israel may attack Iran accelerates the rise of geopolitical risks, and the US dollar index is expected to continue to weaken in the short term [19][20]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US imposes tariffs on steel - made household appliances, and the unemployment benefit application data is weak. The US stock market is still in a volatile situation, and it is not recommended to chase high [22][23][25]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts 1193 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The long - term bonds lack the driving force to break through directly. The market is expected to be volatile in the near future, and investors should seize the opportunity to buy on dips [26][27]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - CONAB and the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raise the soybean production forecasts of Brazil and Argentina respectively. The domestic soybean meal is stronger than the external market but is expected to fluctuate around 3000 [28][29][30]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The Trump administration is expected to propose a biodiesel quota lower than 5.25 billion gallons. Investors holding long positions are advised to exit [31][33]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The market expects an increase in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of May. The domestic sugar market is expected to be weak, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to be weak with fluctuations [36][37]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The steam coal price in the northern port market is temporarily stable, but it may experience a second dip due to factors such as weak power consumption demand [38][39]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Roy Hill and Atlas Iron plan to merge. The iron ore price is expected to decline slightly with the weakening of terminal demand, but the decline will be gentle [40]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - The short - to medium - term pig price may be pessimistic, but the supply pressure may ease in the third to fourth quarter. It is recommended to wait and see [42][43]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of five major steel products has decreased, but the performance of building materials and coils is differentiated. The steel price is expected to be weak with fluctuations [44]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The consumption of corn by deep - processing enterprises has decreased, and the supply - demand situation may gradually improve. The CS07 - C07 is expected to be in low - level fluctuation [46]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn inventory of major processing enterprises has decreased, and the corn inventory is tightening. The 09 contract is expected to be strong first and then weak, with fluctuations [47][48]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The price of N - type silicon wafers has slightly decreased. The spot market is bearish in the short term, but the price decline may stimulate silicon material manufacturers to cut production. A short - term short and long - term long strategy is considered [49][50][51]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Some silicon plants in Sichuan have resumed production, and the demand is still weak. The disk price is expected to be in low - level fluctuation, and shorting on rebounds can be considered [53]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME nickel inventory has increased. The short - term fundamental support exists, and it is recommended to wait and see. Options can be used to replace futures positions, and shorting on rebounds can be considered in the medium term [54][55]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The inventory pressure in June has been significantly relieved. It is recommended to pay attention to shorting opportunities on rebounds [58]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The lead price has oscillated upwards, and the supply is expected to decrease. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to medium - term long - buying opportunities [59][60]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc price has fluctuated widely, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to be strong in supply and weak in demand. It is recommended to short on rebounds and pay attention to the arrival situation in Shanghai [63][64]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The domestic LPG commodity volume has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The spot price has limited upward momentum, and the disk is expected to be weak with fluctuations [66][67]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The National Energy Administration organizes hydrogen energy pilot projects. The CEA is expected to be volatile in the short term [68][70]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Natural Gas) - The US natural gas inventory has increased. It is recommended to wait and see [71][72]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The demand for PTA is in the off - season, and the supply has increased. The short - term price faces pressure, and long - term long positions can be considered on dips [73][74]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong is stable. The 09 contract of caustic soda is affected by the overall weakness of commodities, but the large discount on the disk will limit the downward space [75][77]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp has continued to decline. The disk is expected to be volatile [78][79]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC has slightly increased, and the disk is expected to be volatile [80][81]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The pre - sales of urea production enterprises have decreased. The urea price is expected to be weak in the long term, and attention can be paid to the possibility of policy relaxation [80][82]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The supply pressure of bottle chips is large, and the processing fee is under pressure. It is recommended to build long positions on dips to expand the processing fee [85]. 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash price has declined significantly, and the market is in weak and stable adjustment. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the medium term [86]. 3.2.26 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price has slightly decreased. The demand will decline seasonally, and the price is expected to be weak [87][88].

布伦特原油期货、WTI原油期货涨近3%，纳指期货跌超1%，现货黄金重返3400美元/盎司上方，10年期 美债收益率下行4个基点至4.32%。据AXIOS报道，以色列周四对伊朗进行了空袭。 ...

最后说说黄金，现货黄金涨超0.9%，一度逼近3400美元。在贸易摩擦和地缘政治风险加剧的情况下，黄金的避险属性再次凸显。机构预测，2025年黄金 价格可能在3000-3300美元之间波动，长期来看还是有上涨空间的。 再看看波音，真是屋漏偏逢连夜雨。印度航空的波音787空难事件，让波音股价大跌近5%。这不仅是短期的股价波动，更可能影响到波音未来的订单和声 誉。毕竟，航空安全是头等大事，消费者和航空公司的信任一旦受损，可不是那么容易恢复的。 中概股这边，整体表现有点分化。纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌了0.41%，但房多多和金山云却逆势上涨。小鹏汽车、蔚来这些新能源车企跌幅较大，可能和 市场对国内新能源汽车竞争加剧的担忧有关。不过，长期来看，中国的科技和新能源行业还是很有潜力的，像高瓴这样的机构最近都在加仓中概股，说 明他们对这些行业的未来还是很有信心的。 美元指数昨天跌了0.72%，这和特朗普威胁要对贸易伙伴加征关税有关。关税政策不仅影响贸易，还会影响市场对美元资产的信心。不过，离岸人民币倒 是涨了251点，这说明国际市场对人民币的信心在增强，也反映出中国经济的韧性。 国债市场昨天表现不错，尤其是长期国债。这可能是因为 ...

Group 1 - International oil prices experienced a decline due to eased concerns over Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions, with light crude oil futures falling by $0.11 to $68.04 per barrel, a decrease of 0.16%, and Brent crude oil futures dropping by $0.41 to $69.36 per barrel, a decrease of 0.59% [1] - The U.S. and Iran are scheduled to hold high-level talks in Oman on June 15 regarding potential agreements related to Iran's nuclear activities, while Israel is reportedly considering military action against Iran without U.S. support [1] - The U.S. State Department has ordered the evacuation of non-essential personnel and their families from the U.S. embassy in Iraq, and is preparing to do the same for embassies in Bahrain and Kuwait [1] Group 2 - Geopolitical risks are rising, and seasonal gasoline demand is increasing, leading to a sustained rise in the risk premium in the oil market, which has reignited concerns over supply disruptions [2] - The Strait of Hormuz is critical for global oil transport, accounting for nearly 20% of oil shipments, and any supply disruption could have significant impacts [2] - If Iran were to close the Strait of Hormuz due to an Israeli attack, oil prices could potentially surge to $120 per barrel, although the likelihood of such an event is considered low based on historical precedents [2] - Analysts suggest that if Brent crude futures break the $68 per barrel level, it could establish a new support platform, indicating that the recent price drop may be a short-term profit-taking move, with a long-term upward trend expected [2]

2024年黄金价格飙升约30%。经过通货膨胀调整后，2024年的实际金价超过1979年石油危机时的峰值。 报告指出，黄金传统上被视为对冲实际利率波动的工具。而自2022年俄乌冲突升级以来，黄金价格与实 际利率的相关性已被打破，地缘政治风险已成为影响金价的重要因素。 报告还指出，黄金供给的变化是未来金价走势的重要变量。以往经验表明，黄金供给曾对需求上升做出 弹性反应，未来官方部门的黄金储备需求若进一步上升，可能会带动全球黄金供给进一步增加。（完） 新华社法兰克福6月12日电（记者马悦然 刘向）欧洲中央银行11日发布的最新报告显示，2024年，按 照市场价格计算，黄金在全球央行储备中的份额升至20%，超过欧元的16%占比，成为继美元之后的全 球第二大储备资产。 报告显示，2024年各国央行对黄金的需求占全球黄金总需求的20%以上，远超2010年至2020年间10%的 比例。各国央行黄金净购买量也在2024年连续第三年突破1000吨，创历史纪录。珠宝首饰消费及黄金投 资在全球黄金需求中仍占大部分，约为70%，近三年基本持平。 世界黄金协会调查显示，各国持有黄金主要为分散投资，央行视黄金为对冲经济风险（如通胀、周期性 ...