Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks and expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts support the price of gold, but the slight rebound of the US dollar index restricts the upward momentum of gold and silver. The current round of gold price increase may last until the spring - summer of 2026. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset in precious metal trading, and short - hedgers can appropriately reduce the hedging ratio. Silver, with strong industrial attributes, will also rise following the gold price and may outperform gold in terms of increase due to its high volatility [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metal Market Quotes and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: The incident of a Russian drone being shot down by NATO in Poland raises geopolitical risks, and the 0.1% month - on - month decline in the US August PPI strengthens the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts. The London gold price slightly回调 to around $3630 per ounce, waiting for the US August CPI data. The market generally expects the US August overall CPI and core CPI to increase by 2.9% and 3.1% year - on - year respectively. Gold prices fluctuated sideways from late April to August to digest high - valuation pressure, and started a new round of upward trend in early September [4]. - **Medium - term Market**: From late April to early August, the London gold price fluctuated widely between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. Since August, the US employment and inflation situation supports the Fed to restart the interest - rate cut process, and geopolitical risks continue to provide safe - haven demand for gold. From late August to early September, multiple factors drove the gold price to break through the $3500 mark, starting a new upward trend [5]. - **Domestic Precious Metal Market**: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 833.34, down 0.36%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9829, up 0.04%; the Gold T + D closed at 826.50, down 0.39%; the Silver T + D closed at 9774, down 0.10% [5]. 3.2 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - **Geopolitical Event**: Poland shot down a suspected Russian drone in its airspace with the support of NATO, which is the first time a Western military alliance member has opened fire during the Russia - Ukraine war. Russia's Ministry of Defense stated that it had no intention of hitting any targets in Poland [17]. - **Trade Policy**: Mexico will raise tariffs on cars from China and other Asian countries to 50% to protect domestic employment. The EU is unlikely to impose high tariffs on India or China at Trump's request, but plans to include banks in two Central Asian countries and Chinese refineries in the 19th round of sanctions [17][18]. - **Economic Data**: The US August PPI unexpectedly dropped 0.1% month - on - month. Trump urged the Fed to cut interest rates again based on the weak producer inflation data [17].

来源：环球网 【环球网财经综合报道】北京时间9月12日凌晨，国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一，COMEX黄金期货跌 0.23%报3673.40美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货涨1.12%报42.07美元/盎司。市场普遍预期美国财政部将调 整货币政策框架，美联储也将降息。 消息面上，美国资管机构Crescat Capital宏观策略师塔维·科斯塔近日发布一组数据显示，除美联储外， 全球央行储备中黄金占比自1996年以来首次超越美国国债。这宣告了黄金正式登顶全球央行储备资产。 长江证券近日撰文认为，央行增持黄金反映的是国际社会对美元的信任度正在下降，根本原因是美国自 身债务高企透支美元信用，叠加全球秩序面临重构推动央行购金以规避地缘政治风险，特别是新兴经济 体出于发展、安全等因素考虑，多会选择减持美元资产、增持黄金。 展望后市，长江证券判断，长期来看地缘政治风险和政治极化仍在加剧，央行购金已从短期避险行为演 变为长期战略选择；同时，当前全球主要国家军费占 GDP 比重均处于历史低位，表明各国在国防投入 上相对克制，为金价下行风险设置了"安全垫"。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a decline in gold prices, with the December 2025 gold futures price dropping by 0.23% to $3673.40 per ounce, influenced by an unexpected rise in initial jobless claims and a slight increase in the consumer price index (CPI) in the U.S. [1] - The U.S. Department of Labor reported an increase of 27,000 in initial jobless claims, reaching 263,000, which was above market expectations of 235,000, suggesting a dovish stance on monetary policy [1] - The CPI for August showed a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, up from 2.7% in the previous month, while the core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 3.1% [1] Group 2 - The European Central Bank decided to maintain interest rates during its monetary policy meeting [1] - Gold prices have increased by over 38% this year, while silver prices have risen by more than 42%, indicating a strong performance in precious metals amid uncertainty [1] - Morgan Stanley predicts a further increase in gold prices by approximately 5%, expecting the price to reach $3800 per ounce by the end of 2025 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The pattern of long - short factors intertwined in the oil price may continue. Global economic slowdown concerns and OPEC+'s production - increasing tendency will limit the upside of oil prices, while unexpected geopolitical risk escalations or significant macro - economic policy changes may support and rebound oil prices [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - side - OPEC+ approved an increase of about 137,000 barrels per day in daily oil production starting from October 2025 and plans to continue this production - increasing rhythm until September 2026, accelerating the release of a total capacity of 1.65 million barrels per day [3] - US crude oil production increased by 72,000 barrels per day, the largest increase since February this year [20] Demand - side - In the second quarter of 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of global crude oil demand slowed down from 1.1% in the first quarter to 0.7%, mainly due to the continuous weakening of the global economy. The demand in the US, an important crude oil consumer, weakened significantly due to seasonal factors last week [3] Inventory - As of September 5, EIA data showed that US commercial crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 3.939 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 1.458 million barrels, and refined oil inventories increased by 4.715 million barrels [3][41] Global Crude Oil Balance Sheet - Supply - demand looseness dominates the fundamentals in the second half of the year. There has been unexpected inventory accumulation for two consecutive years, with a cumulative surplus of over 2.6 billion barrels of crude oil [55][56] Reasons for the Loose Supply - demand Situation - Non - OPEC supply has a rigid increase. From 2025 to 2026, non - OPEC production increased from 67.5 to 70.3 million barrels per day (+4.1%), while OPEC production only increased slightly by 0.7 million barrels per day. US shale oil and Brazilian deep - sea oil are the main sources of incremental production [60] - OPEC+ production cuts are ineffective. In September 2025, OPEC+ completely withdrew from the 2.2 million barrels per day production cut, but the increase in non - OPEC production completely offset its efforts [60] - OECD demand has stagnated. After August 2025, it has been continuously below 46.5 million barrels per day, and in January 2026, it suddenly dropped to 44.8 million barrels per day (-3.4% month - on - month) [60] - Non - OECD demand fluctuates violently. It reached a peak of 59.4 million barrels per day in December 2025, but suddenly dropped to 58.3 million barrels per day (-1.8%) in October 2026 [60] - There has been unexpected inventory accumulation for two consecutive years. In 2025, there was positive inventory every month except December, and in 2026, there was only a short - term inventory draw in December. The cumulative surplus of crude oil exceeded 2.6 billion barrels [60] - There is storage capacity pressure. On January 2026, the single - day inventory accumulation reached 2.6 million barrels, a peak in the cycle, implying that storage costs will erode the oil price margin [60] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Supply - High - sulfur fuel oil supply is mainly affected by geopolitical and sanction factors. In August, Russia's high - sulfur fuel oil shipments decreased, and Iran's high - sulfur exports also declined. China's low - sulfur fuel oil production in August was 1.06 million tons, a 4.6% increase from July, but the cumulative production from January to August was about 7.8 million tons, a decrease of about 19% compared with the same period last year [6] Demand - High - sulfur fuel oil demand lacks growth points as the power generation demand in the Middle East and other regions decreases seasonally after the end of the northern hemisphere summer, and the refinery feeding demand also declines with the weakening of gasoline consumption. Low - sulfur fuel oil demand shows some resilience, supported by the unexpected recovery of global shipping demand, but it also faces long - term competition from alternative energy sources [7] Inventory - In the week of September 10, Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 871,000 barrels to a two - week low of 26.528 million barrels. In the week of September 8, Fujairah's fuel oil inventory rebounded strongly by 28% to 7.095 million barrels. In the week of September 5, the fuel oil inventory in the ARA region decreased by 4.4% to 1 million tons, but its inventory level is still higher than the five - year average [7]

周四亚市交易时段，现货黄金于 3630 美元 / 盎司价位附近呈现震荡态势。IEXS盈十证券（IEXS外汇） 资深分析师指出，当前黄金市场多空力量正处于微妙博弈阶段，而晚间即将公布的美国 CPI 数据，或 将成为打破僵局、引领金价走势的关键风向标。 从基本面来看，多重利好因素共同构筑起黄金的看涨基调。近期，美联储 9 月降息预期持续升温，市场 已完全定价 25 个基点的降息幅度，且降息 50 个基点的概率也大幅升至 10%。在全球经济前景充满不 确定性的背景下，降息预期的增强使得持有黄金的机会成本降低，吸引了众多投资者的目光。与此同 时，欧洲、中东地区地缘政治紧张局势不断升级，地缘政治风险的加剧让黄金的避险属性再度凸显，成 为投资者规避风险、保值增值的重要资产配置选择。 然而，美元指数尚未出现加速下行趋势，这在一定程度上限制了金价的涨幅。作为黄金的重要竞争对 手，美元的表现对黄金价格有着直接影响。当美元指数走弱时，以美元计价的黄金对其他货币持有者来 说变得更加便宜，从而刺激需求，推动金价上涨；反之，美元的坚挺则会抑制黄金的上行空间。当前， 美元指数的相对稳定，使得黄金多头难以形成有效的突破力量。 IEXS盈十 ...

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the potential impact of a proposed executive order by the Trump administration aimed at restricting experimental drugs and clinical data from China, which has led to a decline in the stock prices of several Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies listed in both A-shares and H-shares markets [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Following the news, stocks of Chinese innovative drug companies such as BeiGene and I-Mab experienced varying degrees of decline in the U.S. market [1]. - The proposed executive order is seen as a response to concerns over China's rise in biotechnology and its implications for the U.S. industry [1][2]. Group 2: Regulatory Implications - The draft order suggests that U.S. pharmaceutical companies will face stricter scrutiny for acquiring drug rights from Chinese firms, requiring mandatory reviews by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) [2]. - The FDA would impose stricter reviews and higher regulatory fees, potentially hindering reliance on clinical trial data from Chinese patients [2][3]. Group 3: Industry Perspectives - Experts indicate that if the order is enacted, it could create higher barriers for licensing agreements between Chinese drug companies and large U.S. pharmaceutical firms, increasing transaction costs and uncertainty [2][3]. - The proposed measures may also disrupt the supply chain and increase R&D costs for U.S. pharmaceutical companies, which rely on innovations developed in China [3][4]. Group 4: Global Context - China has emerged as a significant player in global pharmaceutical innovation, with projections indicating that 93 innovative drugs will be approved in China in 2024, marking a ten-year high [4]. - The country surpassed Japan and Europe in the number of innovative drug approvals, becoming the second-largest region for such approvals globally [4][5]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Despite potential uncertainties due to geopolitical risks, the trend of Chinese innovative drug companies expanding into international markets is expected to continue [5][6]. - Companies are encouraged to enhance their global clinical data capabilities to adapt to changing policies and maintain the value of their innovative drugs [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that despite favorable data, gold prices are currently in a correction phase, with significant pressure from above [1] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, a weakening dollar, and rising geopolitical risks are contributing to a bullish outlook for gold [2] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for August rose less than expected, reinforcing the market's anticipation of a rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting [2] Group 2 - The CME FedWatch tool shows that the market is fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut at the September meeting, with a 10% probability for a 50 basis point cut [2] - Geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East are driving safe-haven investments into gold, further supporting its price [2] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are currently in a range-bound movement, with key support at 3620 and resistance at 3645 [3]

黄金周三（9月10日）早盘下跌3619/3618附近反弹3641承压下跌，在跌至3620附近企稳上涨，欧盘保持震荡上涨走势，在上涨3657/3658附近后受阻转跌， 美盘震荡下跌走势，凌晨最低下探3635，日线收出一根上影线长于下影线的小阳线。 一、基本面 1、美国PPI疲软夯实美联储降息预期 数据表现：8月美国生产者物价指数（PPI）环比意外下降0.1%（预期上涨0.3%），同比涨幅2.6%（预期3.3%），且7月数据下修至0.7%；叠加8月非农就业 仅增2.2万人、前期就业数据大幅下修，显示美国经济放缓、劳动力市场降温。 20:30，美国将公布8月未季调CPI数据，预计年率将录得2.90%（前值为2.70%），月率将录得0.30%（前值为0.20%）；核心CPI年率预计将录得3.10%，月率 将录得0.30%，预计两者均与前值持平； 20:30，美国将公布至9月6日当周初请失业金人数，市场预期将新增23.5万人，前值录得23.7万人。 二、技术面 政策影响：市场对美联储降息预期强化——芝商所FedWatch工具显示，9月16-17日会议降息25个基点概率达100%，50个基点降息概率为8%-10%；分析师 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall energy and chemical market is in a state of shock. The oil price is affected by geopolitical risks and inventory data, and it is expected to fluctuate. The fundamentals of fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC also have different influencing factors, and their prices are expected to show different trends of shock [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the oil price center moved up. The WTI October contract closed up $1.04 to $63.67 per barrel, a 1.66% increase. The Brent November contract closed up $1.10 to $67.49 per barrel, also a 1.66% increase. SC2510 closed at 490.1 yuan per barrel, up 4.0 yuan per barrel, a 0.82% increase. The market is pricing in the increase in geopolitical risks, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2510 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 1.44% at 2,827 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2511 closed up 0.48% at 3,383 yuan per ton. The supply in the Singapore area has increased recently. The fundamentals of FU and LU have no obvious driving force, and in the short term, attention should be paid to the fluctuations of the cost - side crude oil [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2510 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 0.55% at 3,463 yuan per ton. It is expected that the supply - demand contradiction will ease in September, and the asphalt price may have further upward space [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4,698 yuan per ton, up 0.43%. EG2601 closed at 4,319 yuan per ton, down 0.07%. It is expected that the PX price will fluctuate with the cost, the TA fundamentals have improvement expectations, and ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate weakly [2][4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main沪胶 contract RU2601 rose 40 yuan per ton to 15,980 yuan per ton. It is expected that the rubber price will be mainly in a strong - side shock, and close attention should be paid to the weather conditions in the production areas during the peak production season [4]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,295 yuan per ton. It is expected that the methanol price will enter a stage - bottom [4][5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, the mainstream price of East China wire - drawing was 6,750 - 6,960 yuan per ton. The polyolefins are gradually transitioning to a situation of both strong supply and demand, and the overall will show a weakly - fluctuating pattern [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Wednesday, the PVC market in East China was in a shock - finishing state. It is expected that the PVC price will fluctuate weakly [5][6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical varieties on September 11, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [7]. 3.3 Market News - Trump urged the EU to impose up to 100% "secondary tariffs" on China and encouraged similar measures against India. The EU official delegation will visit Washington this week to discuss joint actions to pressure Russia [11]. - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said that as of the week ending September 5, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.9 million barrels to 424.6 million barrels, and U.S. crude oil exports decreased by 1.1 million barrels per day to 2.8 million barrels per day [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report provides the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [13][15][17]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report provides the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [26][28][32]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy and chemical varieties, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [41][43][46]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - variety contracts of various energy and chemical varieties, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [59][62]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report provides the production profit charts of various energy and chemical varieties, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow, PP production profit, etc. [67][69]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Guangda Futures Energy and Chemical Research Team, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, and their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [72][73][74].

Group 1: Gold Pricing Dynamics - Gold exhibits three attributes: commodity, currency, and financial asset, with prices positively correlated to inflation and negatively correlated to the US dollar and real interest rates[3] - Since 2022, the negative correlation between gold prices and real interest rates has weakened due to central banks increasing gold reserves, reflecting declining trust in the US dollar[3] - The supply of gold is relatively stable due to resource scarcity and long exploration and extraction cycles, while demand has shifted from investment to strategic allocation, changing the pricing anchor from "real interest rates" to "central bank purchases"[7] Group 2: Central Bank Gold Purchases - The trend of central banks increasing gold reserves reflects a loss of confidence in the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency, particularly after the freezing of Russian assets due to the Ukraine conflict[8] - As of 2024, the US federal government debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach 124.3%, indicating a growing risk to the dollar's credibility and prompting countries to reduce dollar assets in favor of gold[8] - A survey by the World Gold Council indicates that 81% of central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, suggesting a strong and growing demand for gold[10] Group 3: Future Gold Price Outlook - Geopolitical risks and political polarization are expected to continue, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset and increasing central bank demand for gold[9] - The military expenditure of major countries is at historical lows as a percentage of GDP, providing a safety net against potential declines in gold prices[9] - The average annual net gold purchases by central banks from 2022 to 2024 reached 1,059 tons, accounting for 23% of global gold demand, indicating a structural shift in demand dynamics[34]