CBOE and we go to Kevin Hanks for our pre-bell playbook. A good morning to you, Kevin. How you feeling this morning after a record closes yesterday.Good morning, Nicole. Yeah, good strong close to the market yesterday. A very flat market to start the day as we look for day nine of the government shutdown.You know, today the uh one of the stories, well, there's a lot of stories. The biggest story probably being the Fed speakers. Jerome Pal just made the opening welcome to a re a banking conference in Washing ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market in September experienced weak fluctuations at high levels, with a bear steepening curve, influenced by upcoming policy directions and the "14th Five-Year Plan" during the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session in October [1][3]. Group 1: Market Overview - The bond market showed weak fluctuations in September, with a bear steepening curve, influenced by speculation on monetary and fiscal coordination and the resumption of national debt trading tools [2]. - Basic economic data released in September was generally weak, but the bond market maintained a bear steepening trend, indicating that market sentiment was driven more by regulatory and monetary policy changes rather than economic fundamentals [3]. Group 2: Supply Side - The expected issuance scale of general government bonds in October is around 1 trillion, with special bonds expected to issue approximately 224 billion [4]. - The total issuance of local government bonds in October is projected to be around 980 billion, with a net financing scale of approximately 700 billion [4]. Group 3: Liquidity - Cash demand is expected to increase, leading to a wider liquidity gap in October, with fiscal deposits projected to increase by around 1 trillion [5]. - The central bank is expected to maintain liquidity support through various tools, keeping the interest rate and policy rate spread stable [5]. Group 4: Policy Environment - The central bank's monetary policy remains stable, with a focus on the use of existing tools rather than introducing new ones, indicating a neutral to slightly loose policy stance [6]. - In September, the central bank's MLF and reverse repos both saw a net injection of 300 billion, maintaining the same scale as August [6]. Group 5: Fund Performance - As of the end of September 2025, the scale of bond funds increased to 96,613 billion, with a net asset value of 110,577 billion, despite market volatility [7]. - The number of bond funds that ended their fundraising early remained consistent with the previous month, totaling 21 [7]. Group 6: Credit Spread - In September, credit bond yields rose, with mid-to-high-grade credit bonds seeing the highest increase of up to 16 basis points [8]. - The credit spread for short-term and medium-term bonds widened, with the 5-year credit bond increasing by 10 to 15 basis points [8]. Group 7: Yield Analysis - For a 3-month holding period, selecting credit bonds with a maturity of 6 to 10 years is expected to yield a return of approximately 0.70% to 0.90% [9]. - For a 6-month holding period, similar bonds are projected to yield returns of up to 1.80%, while for a 9-month period, returns could exceed 2.5% [9].

从最新数据来看，前8个月，固定资产投资累计同比降至0.5%，其中基建投资（不含电力）累计同比下 降至2.0%，已连续四个月环比逐月下降；8月份，70个大中城市中，各线城市商品住宅销售价格环比下 降；8月份，全国居民消费价格同比下降0.4%，全国工业生产者出厂价格同比下降2.9%。 展望四季度，宏观政策将坚持"稳中求进"总基调，财政政策与货币政策协同发力，重点在于提升政策效 能与市场预期。 当前，中国经济正处于转型升级的关键期，短期波动不改长期向好基本面。四季度是全年经济收官的冲 刺阶段，更是政策发力的重要窗口期。《证券日报》记者采访了多位业内人士，深入剖析四季度宏观经 济走势，精准探寻政策发力点。 广开首席产业研究院院长兼首席经济学家连平认为，为推动经济平稳增长，保障实现年初确定的预期目 标，四季度需尽快完善、下达"两重"建设和中央预算内投资项目清单，加快地方专项债、一般国债、超 长期特别国债等的发行与资金落地，尽快形成扩大内需的实际政策效果。 货币政策方面，伍超明预计或将保持连续性、稳定性，维持宽松基调和流动性充裕状况不变；但面对银 行息差压力、居民存款收益下降、政策效果不佳等制约，加之经济循环改善、物价回 ...

Group 1 - Discussion among Federal Reserve officials regarding the extent of interest rate cuts [1] - Examination of the economic situation, particularly focusing on employment and inflation issues [1] - Deliberation on tariffs and fiscal policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of coordinated fiscal and monetary policies to enhance policy effectiveness and market expectations during the critical fourth quarter of China's economic transition [1][2]. Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy is expected to focus on increasing investment and accelerating the issuance and utilization of land reserve and special infrastructure bonds, despite a low probability of adjusting budgets or issuing new government bonds [1]. - The need for timely enhancement of "two heavy" construction and central budget investment project lists is highlighted to support economic stability and achieve annual targets [2]. Monetary Policy - Monetary policy is anticipated to maintain continuity and stability, with a focus on a loose monetary stance and ample liquidity, although the likelihood of interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter is low [2]. - There may be a potential reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points and a decrease in interest rates by 0.2 percentage points if necessary, alongside the lowering of operational thresholds for capital market support tools [2]. Demand Side Recommendations - Suggestions include lowering mortgage rates, optimizing personal housing tax incentives, and encouraging banks to increase loans to real estate developers [3]. - An additional 1 billion yuan for consumer goods trade-in subsidies is proposed to expand the subsidy range and enhance credit support for service consumption [3]. - Strengthening fiscal and financial support, optimizing tax refund services, and improving trade facilitation are recommended to assist foreign trade and affected industries [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is intensifying its fiscal policies to boost consumer spending, particularly through the "old-for-new" subsidy program, which has allocated a total of 690 billion yuan in special bonds to support this initiative, contributing to a total of 300 billion yuan for the year [1][2] Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Consumer Spending - The implementation of various fiscal policies, including personal consumption loan subsidies and new consumption scenarios, has significantly contributed to stabilizing and promoting economic growth [1][2] - The government has released approximately 4.2 trillion yuan in fiscal support for the "old-for-new" program, resulting in over 2.9 trillion yuan in sales across various goods [2][3] Group 2: Employment and Income Growth - The central government has prioritized employment, allocating 318.6 billion yuan in employment subsidies during the 14th Five-Year Plan, a 29% increase from the previous plan, leading to over 50 million new urban jobs [2] - Enhanced social security measures, including childcare and elderly care subsidies, have reduced living costs, thereby increasing consumer confidence and spending capacity [2] Group 3: Quality of Supply and Consumer Environment - Recent initiatives by the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Commerce aim to improve the quality of supply and optimize the consumer environment through pilot programs in various cities, with funding ranging from 200 million to 400 million yuan [3] - The focus on creating innovative consumption scenarios and enhancing international service levels is expected to boost consumer confidence and market activity [3] Group 4: Overall Economic Impact - The combination of proactive fiscal policies is designed to address economic shortfalls, improve livelihoods, and expand domestic demand, thereby playing a crucial role in driving economic growth [4]

Group 1 - The UK service sector activity significantly slowed down in September, with the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropping from 54.2 in August to 50.8, marking the lowest level in five months and nearing the threshold of economic contraction [1] - The slowdown is attributed to persistent high inflation and uncertainty regarding future policies, leading businesses and households to adopt a more cautious spending approach [1] - The UK government is facing a tight fiscal situation, with the Chancellor planning to announce the annual budget in late November, raising concerns about balancing fiscal deficit reduction and economic growth [1] Group 2 - Employment in the service sector has been experiencing layoffs for a year, reflecting a lack of confidence among businesses regarding future prospects [1] - The Bank of England faces uncertainty regarding monetary policy direction, with debates on whether to lower interest rates amidst fluctuating inflation rates [2] - The UK economy has been under pressure from high inflation, elevated interest rates, and unresolved trade tensions post-Brexit, indicating that future economic performance will heavily depend on government budget policies and central bank interest rate decisions [2]

Core Viewpoints - The current international situation is characterized by "four certainties" and "three uncertainties," impacting global capital flows and presenting structural challenges to the Chinese economy [2] - Domestic issues such as weak demand, structural overcapacity, deflationary pressures, and unstable expectations remain significant [3][4][5] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Infrastructure investment growth has declined, with fixed asset investment from January to August showing a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) down 2.0% [3] - The real estate market continues to face challenges, with national commercial housing sales area in August down 11% year-on-year, and real estate investment from January to August down 12.9% [4] - Credit growth is notably weak, with July seeing a reduction of 500 billion yuan in credit, marking the first decline since July 2005, and the total new credit for January to August at 1.34 trillion yuan, the lowest in five years [5] Group 2: Policy Recommendations - It is recommended to advance next year's government investment quotas to stimulate demand, with a proposed early release of 1.5-2 trillion yuan in local government bonds [6] - Monetary policy should continue to signal positivity, with suggestions for a 0.5% reserve requirement ratio cut and a 0.2% interest rate reduction [6] - The establishment of a "dynamic adjustment" mechanism for structural tools is advised to enhance efficiency and prevent fund idling [7] Group 3: Capital Market Support - Lowering the operational thresholds for capital market support tools is suggested, including reducing the interest rate for stock repurchase loans from 1.75% to 1.5% [8] - The recommendation includes expanding the range of institutions eligible for liquidity support and increasing the scale of the central financial company's assets to stabilize the capital market [8] Group 4: Real Estate and Housing Policies - A reduction in mortgage rates and optimization of housing tax policies are recommended, particularly in major cities, to stimulate housing demand [9][10] - The "white list" credit arrangement is currently at approximately 8.5 trillion yuan, which is about 60% of the existing development loan balance, indicating a need for increased credit support for real estate companies [10] Group 5: Consumer and Trade Support - An additional 1 billion yuan for consumer goods replacement subsidies is proposed, along with measures to enhance service consumption and lower re-loan rates [11][12] - Strengthening financial and fiscal support for foreign trade, including the establishment of emergency funds for affected enterprises, is recommended [13][14]

Group 1: Central Bank's Bond Purchase Overview - The central bank's bond purchases, known as "buying bonds," are a key monetary policy tool, with a balance of CNY 2.25 trillion in government bonds as of August 2025, accounting for 4.85% of total assets[2][11] - Historically, the central bank has engaged in three methods of bond purchases: cash transactions, rolling purchases of special government bonds, and repurchase transactions[2][16] - Current expectations for the central bank to resume bond purchases are rising due to liquidity needs and economic pressures, particularly in the context of slowing consumption and real estate declines[3][27] Group 2: Economic Context and Policy Coordination - Economic growth pressures remain, with consumption growth slowing to 3.4% year-on-year in August 2025, and fixed asset investment down by 7.1%[33][34] - The necessity for coordinated "wide monetary" and "wide fiscal" policies is increasing, as the government seeks to address debt and liquidity issues[3][27][38] - The central bank's recent meetings emphasize the importance of fiscal and monetary policy coordination to support economic stability[30][31] Group 3: Future Bond Purchase Signals - The central bank's bond buying operations have shown a pattern of increasing net purchases, with amounts of CNY 1,000 billion in August 2024, rising to CNY 3,000 billion by December 2024[28][29] - The central bank's asset-liability management indicates a need to extend the duration of government bonds held to stabilize the asset structure amid upcoming bond maturities[4][14] - The central bank's recent policy statements suggest a commitment to maintaining liquidity and supporting economic growth through potential bond purchases in the near future[6][27]

Group 1 - In the third quarter, the bond market experienced fluctuations and a downward trend due to multiple factors including "anti-involution" trading, a rebound in risk appetite, and new regulations on fund redemption fees [1] - In July, signals of "anti-involution" were released, leading to rising inflation and expectations for incremental policies on the demand side, which put pressure on the bond market while commodities and stocks rose [1] - By August, "anti-involution" trading cooled down, and while the commodity market saw fluctuations, the stock market continued to rise, causing government bonds to decline further [1] Group 2 - In the fourth quarter, the remaining quota for local special bonds and government bonds is around 2 trillion yuan, indicating a significant reduction in supply pressure compared to the third quarter [2] - The potential incremental policy for the fourth quarter includes 500 billion yuan in policy financial instruments, focusing on supporting emerging industries and infrastructure [2] - The overall monetary policy remains moderately loose, with a focus on structural monetary policy to support key economic areas [2] Group 3 - The capital market in the third quarter was primarily driven by macro expectations, while the bond market's response to fundamentals was muted, following stock market fluctuations [3] - In October, favorable policies may continue to drive stock market gains, while the bond market may experience weak fluctuations [3] - After adjustments in the third quarter, bond market valuations have entered a reasonable range, improving the cost-performance ratio for allocations [3]