Group 1 - The U.S. will impose new tariffs on Japan and 13 other countries starting August 1, with rates ranging from 25% to 40% [3][5] - Japan has remained firm in negotiations, refusing to concede on key issues such as automotive tariffs and agricultural protections, leading to Trump's frustration [5][7] - Japan's automotive industry is crucial, with projected exports to the U.S. reaching 1.37 million vehicles in 2024, making it vulnerable to the new tariffs [5][9] Group 2 - China's recent decision to partially lift the ban on Japanese seafood imports provides unexpected support for Japan amid U.S. tariff pressures [7][9] - The timing of Trump's tariff announcement coincides with Japan's upcoming elections, suggesting a strategic move to increase domestic political pressure on Prime Minister Kishida [8][10] - The potential for a trilateral response from China, Japan, and South Korea against U.S. pressures is highlighted, indicating a shift in regional trade dynamics [10]

特朗普又挥起了关税大棒！7月7日，这位美国总统突然宣布，8月1日起将对日本、韩国等14个国家加征25%-40%不等的关税，其中老 挝和缅甸甚至面临高达40%的惩罚性关税。然而，就在同一天，美国财长贝森特却对中国释放友好信号，称"中美谈判顺利"，并希望尽 快与中国官员会面。这一系列看似矛盾的操作背后，究竟隐藏着怎样的算计？ 美国关税大棒砸向14国，日韩盟友也未能幸免 特朗普此次关税行动可谓"精准打击"。14个国家被分为多个档次，其中日本和韩国作为美国传统盟友，仍被征收25%的关税。更讽刺的 是，就在4月2日，特朗普还宣布对日本的关税为24%，但经过三个月的谈判，税率不降反升，最终定为25%。这一决定直接导致丰田股 价当天暴跌3.99%，日本车企面临巨大压力。特朗普甚至赤裸裸地在信中威胁："在美国建厂的企业将免征关税。" 第一，稀土问题卡脖子。尽管中美关税从145%降至30%，但中国始终未在稀土供应上松口。美国军工、电子等行业因稀土短缺而陷入 困境，企业"急得跳脚"。 第二，关税大棒难以为继。此次对14国加税，连日本韩国都未能幸免，若严格执行，美国在西太平洋的影响力将严重受损。因此，美 国不得不推迟关税生效时间， ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美国财政部长贝森特周二表示，美国今年迄今已获得约1000亿美元的关税收入，随着美国总统特朗普贸易战的征税加速，到 2025年底，这一数字可能增至3000亿美元。 贝森特在一次白宫内阁会议上说，特朗普新关税的主要征收工作仅在第二季度才开始，当时特朗普对美国进口商品实施了近乎 普遍的10%关税，并提高了对钢铁、铝和汽车的关税。 "因此我们可以预期，到年底，这个数字很可能远超3000亿美元，"贝森特说。 一位财政部发言人表示，3000亿美元的目标对应的是2025日历年的年底，即12月31日，而非政府财政年度的年底，即9月30 日。 要达到3000亿美元的2025年关税收入，将意味着美国未来几个月征收额的指数级增长，以及从当前水平上进行大幅和广泛的关 税上调。 贝森特补充说，国会预算办公室曾估计，关税收入在10年内将总计约2.8万亿美元，"我们认为这个数字可能偏低。" 财政部报告称，5月份的关税总额创下228亿美元的纪录，与去年同期的62亿美元相比，增长了近四倍。这使得美国2025财年前 八个月的关税征收总额达到861亿美元。截至2025日历年的前五个月，美国 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that President Trump has postponed the implementation of reciprocal tariffs from July 9 to August 1, aiming to gain more time for negotiations with major trading partners [1][2] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that negotiations with the EU, India, and other trade partners are making progress, which influenced Trump's decision to extend the deadline [1][2] - Despite the postponement, Trump has announced a 50% tariff on copper and up to 200% on pharmaceuticals, indicating a tactical shift in the U.S. trade strategy from immediate tariff implementation to using tariff threats as negotiation leverage [1][4] Group 2 - Trump initially favored automatic tariff implementation but changed his mind after hearing from Mnuchin that some agreements were close but required more time [2] - The postponement of tariffs has temporarily avoided direct escalation of trade conflicts but has opened a period of intense negotiations filled with uncertainty [3] - The U.S. government is also preparing to introduce new tariffs based on other legal authorities, with specific announcements regarding copper and pharmaceuticals expected soon [4][5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the extension of the tariff suspension period by Trump and the expected meeting between US and Chinese officials have alleviated tariff concerns, improving market risk appetite, which is beneficial to silver and slightly negative to gold. However, due to the uncertainty of tariff policies and China's continuous gold - reserve increase, gold prices are unlikely to decline significantly. Thus, short - term precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend [4]. - In the long - term, considering the ongoing trade war, the probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut, global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power competition, and the wave of de - dollarization, the long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged. It is recommended to allocate gold on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content a. Price Tracking of Precious Metals - **15 - point Prices of Domestic and Foreign Gold and Silver**: On July 8, 2025, the prices of London Gold Spot, London Silver Spot, COMEX Gold, and other indicators all showed increases compared to July 7, with daily price increases ranging from 0.6% to 0.9%. For example, the price of London Gold Spot rose from $3308.77 per ounce on July 7 to $3336.45 per ounce on July 8, an increase of 0.8% [3]. - **Price Difference and Ratio Tracking**: The price differences and ratios of precious metals also changed. For instance, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference decreased by 16.2% from July 7 to July 8, while the silver TD - SHFE active price difference decreased by 31.3% [3]. b. Position Data - **COMEX and ETF Positions**: As of July 7, 2025, the non - commercial net long positions of COMEX gold increased by 3.58% compared to July 3, while the non - commercial net long positions of COMEX silver decreased by 2.06%. The holdings of gold ETF - SPDR and silver ETF - SLV remained unchanged [3]. c. Inventory Data - **SHFE and COMEX Inventories**: On July 8, 2025, SHFE gold inventory increased by 0.48% compared to July 7, and SHFE silver inventory increased by 0.30%. COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.19% from July 3 to July 7, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.20% [3]. d. Other Market Data - **Exchange Rates, Yields, and Indexes**: The dollar - to - RMB central parity rate increased by 0.04% from July 7 to July 8. The dollar index, 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury yields, VIX, and NYMEX crude oil prices also showed different degrees of change [4]. e. News and Market Analysis - **Tariff Policy News**: Trump extended the so - called "reciprocal tariff" suspension period from July 9 to August 1 and announced new tariff policies for multiple countries starting from August 1 [4]. - **Trade Negotiation News**: US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he expected to meet with Chinese officials in the next few weeks to promote trade and other topic negotiations [4].

Group 1 - The US dollar index is currently on the rise, reported at 97.69 with an increase of 0.20%, driven by a decrease in risk aversion and a slowdown in Federal Reserve rate cut expectations [1] - Japan and South Korea are attempting to negotiate with the US to mitigate the impact of President Trump's planned significant tariff increases starting in early August [1][2] - Investors are anticipating a 50 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, with actions expected to begin in October [3] Group 2 - President Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper to boost US copper production, escalating the trade war and warning 14 countries of higher tariffs [2] - The market is awaiting the latest policy meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve, with several officials scheduled to speak this week, providing insights into economic and policy directions [2] - The dollar index is facing resistance around the 99 area, with key support levels identified at 97.20-40, and upward pressure noted near 98.00 [3]

据央视及新华社报道证实，7月8日特朗普政府表示，将对所有进口到美国的铜征收50%的新关税，而据 美国消费者新闻与商业频道报道，在特朗普内阁会议结束后，美国商务部长卢特尼克最新说，美国商务 部已完成对铜进口状况的调查，他预计新关税"可能在7月底或8月1日实施"。 尽管特朗普政府的贸易政策反复多变，但由于事发突然且已点燃金融资本的逐利冲动。风口浪尖的铜市 场金融定价掀起巨浪，冲击中美欧贸易稳定性与金融定价！ 8日当日纽约铜价单日暴涨逾10%，因美国瞬间涌现多头逼空及大量空头回补潮，美国铜期货正上演单 日突破历史高位记录的逼空大戏，与此同时伦敦铜价高位巨震日内回落近2%，而我国铜期货价格8日夜 盘结束仍以微涨收盘，但预计9日开盘交易后预计沪铜将小幅调整回落后跟跌伦敦铜。 但由于铜资源卡脖子问题突出，预计全球铜价经历了短期割裂之后，中国铜现货将依赖"上游资金极紧 缺，可交割铜库存极低，下游反内卷回暖"等结构性强势因素，中长期预计维持抗跌坚挺，下半年或将 朝向年内新高！ 从铜市本轮结构变化来看，目前美国铜期货市场上演逼空行情后，现货升水升至极端历史高位水平，而 伦敦LME铜价则因跨大西洋贸易流断裂担忧承压下行，美国与欧 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight, Trump's approval to send more defensive weapons to Ukraine and consideration of further sanctions on Russia raised geopolitical concerns and boosted oil prices. Meanwhile, the news of imposing tariffs on imported copper also caused market resonance and pushed prices up. However, the significant unexpected increase in API crude oil inventory in the early morning had a certain suppressing effect on oil prices. Short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate, with short - term trading in the range of 510 - 520, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: The US will impose tariffs of 25% - 40% on imported products from 14 countries including Japan and South Korea starting from August 1st, and extend the "reciprocal tariff" suspension deadline to August 1st. Trump approved sending more defensive weapons to Ukraine and considered further sanctions on Russia, which is neutral for the market [3]. - **Basis**: On July 8th, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $70.77 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $70.4 per barrel, with a basis of 15.17 yuan/barrel, indicating that the spot price was higher than the futures price, which is bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending July 4th increased by 7.128 million barrels, far exceeding the expected decrease of 2.6 million barrels. The EIA inventory for the week ending June 28th increased by 3.845 million barrels, also exceeding the expected decrease of 1.809 million barrels. The Cushing region's inventory for the week ending June 28th decreased by 1.493 million barrels. As of July 8th, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 4.517 million barrels, a decrease of 440,000 barrels, which is bearish [3]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was below the moving average, which is neutral [3]. - **Main Positions**: As of July 1st, the long positions of WTI crude oil main contracts increased, while those of Brent crude oil main contracts decreased, which is neutral [3]. 3.2 Recent News - **Geopolitical News**: Trump approved sending more defensive weapons to Ukraine and considered further sanctions on Russia. He also said he was "very dissatisfied" with Russian President Putin. He is considering supporting a new bill in the Senate to impose severe sanctions on Russia. Additionally, Trump expanded the global trade war by announcing a 50% tariff on imported copper and threatening to impose tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals [5]. - **Supply - side News**: Saudi Arabia promoted OPEC+ to increase production rapidly. Eight major oil - producing countries decided to jointly increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August and accelerate the lifting of the 2.17 million barrels per day production cut plan that started in April. Combined with the UAE's additional production quota increase of 300,000 barrels per day, OPEC+'s production target for this year may be increased by 2.5 million barrels per day. However, the new quota may not significantly change the organization's total output as most member countries' actual production has reached or exceeded the quota levels [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: The intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months; the continuous tension in the US trade relations with other economies; the cease - fire between Iran and Israel [6]. - **Market Drivers**: In the short term, geopolitical conflicts drive up prices, and in the medium - long term, the market awaits the peak summer demand season [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement price of Brent crude oil decreased from $68.80 to $68.30, a decrease of 0.73%. The settlement price of WTI crude oil decreased from $67.00 to $62.36, a decrease of 6.93%. The settlement price of SC crude oil increased from 503.7 to 506.4, an increase of 0.54%. The settlement price of Oman crude oil increased from $68.70 to $69.78, an increase of 1.57% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The price of UK Brent Dtd decreased from $71.28 to $70.91, a decrease of 0.52%. The price of WTI decreased from $67.00 to $66.50, a decrease of 0.75%. The price of Oman crude oil in the Asia - Pacific region increased from $69.84 to $70.03, an increase of 0.27%. The price of Shengli crude oil in the Asia - Pacific region increased from $66.72 to $67.07, an increase of 0.52%. The price of Dubai crude oil in the Asia - Pacific region increased from $69.70 to $69.85, an increase of 0.22% [9]. - **Inventory Data**: The API inventory for the week ending July 4th increased by 7.128 million barrels, far exceeding the expected decrease. The EIA inventory for the week ending June 27th increased by 3.845 million barrels, also exceeding the expected decrease [3]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of July 1st, the net long positions of WTI crude oil funds were 234,693, an increase of 1,724 [15]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of July 1st, the net long positions of Brent crude oil funds were 166,717, a decrease of 25,881 [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment [2]. - The basis shows that the spot price is 79745 with a basis of 125, indicating a premium over futures, which is considered neutral [2]. - Copper inventories increased by 5100 to 102500 tons on July 8, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 3039 tons to 84589 tons compared to last week, which is neutral [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average is upward, suggesting a bullish signal [2]. - The net position of the main players is short, but the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - With the Fed's slowdown in interest rate cuts, high - level inventory reduction, uncertainties in US trade tariffs, and geopolitical disturbances, and a 50% US copper tariff overnight, market volatility has intensified [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoint - Copper fundamentals are neutral due to smelting production cuts, scrap copper policy changes, and stable manufacturing PMI [2]. - The basis is neutral with a spot premium over futures [2]. - Inventory changes are neutral as both total and SHFE inventories increased [2]. - The price trend is bullish as the closing price is above the rising 20 - day moving average [2]. - The main players' position is bearish with a net short position that is decreasing [2]. - Market expectations are volatile due to Fed policy, inventory changes, trade tariffs, and geopolitical factors [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves domestic policy easing and an escalation of the trade war, but specific利多 and利空 factors are not detailed [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is expected to be in a tight balance [20]. - The China annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 - 2024, with a surplus of 110,000 tons in 2024 [22]. Other Data - Bonded area inventories are rising from a low level [14]. - Processing fees are falling [16].

周二(7月8日)亚市盘中，国际白银短线小幅下行，目前交投于36.66美元/盎司，跌幅0.20%，今日银价开 盘报36.69美元/盎司，最高上探36.76美元/盎司，最低触及36.49美元/盎司。 BMO私人财富首席市场策略师Carol Schleif在明尼阿波利斯表示："市场就像在屏住呼吸等待更多关税 消息。"她表示："市场仍然维持得不错，距离历史高点仅一步之遥，这说明投资者愿意对新闻头条保持 观望态度。" 同时，投资者在等待第二季度财报季于7月中旬启动之际，也因上周美国政府支出计划获得通过而感到 宽慰，其中包括一些对企业友好的税收政策。 【白银走势分析】 短线来看，国际白银小幅下跌，目前交投于36.66美元/盎司，跌幅0.20%，最高上探36.76美元/盎司，最 低触及36.49美元/盎司。今日白银上方阻力位为37.30-37.40，下方支撑位为35.90-36.00. 华尔街股市在周一大幅下跌，原因是特朗普警告称，从8月开始将对包括日本和韩国等关键贸易伙伴以 及一些规模较小的国家的商品加征新一轮全面关税。 周二美股走势不如前一日激烈，但标普500指数和以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数在涨跌之间不断震荡， 投资者 ...