Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Range-bound oscillation [1] - Alumina: Slight sideways increase [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Follow electrolytic aluminum [1] Core Viewpoints - The report provides updated fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including prices, trading volumes, open interests, spreads, premiums, processing fees, and inventory levels in both the futures and spot markets [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 20,700, with a trading volume of 87,829 and an open interest of 215,510. The LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,615, and the LME注销仓单 ratio was 2.99%. The spreads and arbitrage costs also showed certain changes [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 3,182, with a trading volume of 172,884 and an open interest of 114,892. The spreads and arbitrage costs had corresponding fluctuations [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,135, with a trading volume of 1,008 and an open interest of 8,101. The spreads and other indicators changed as well [1]. Spot Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit was 3,911.96. The aluminum ingot social inventory was 571,000 tons, and the SHFE aluminum ingot warehouse receipts were 48,300 tons. The import and export profits and losses, processing fees, and other data had different degrees of change [1]. - **Alumina**: The average domestic alumina price was 3,274. The alumina enterprise profit in Shanxi was 291. The prices of imported bauxite from different regions also had certain trends [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 was -166. The inventory of three locations totaled 31,345 [1]. Other Information - The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy were all 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3]. - Trump's team is expanding the scope of candidates for the Fed Chair, and the final decision is expected to be announced this fall [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The total inventory pressure of domestic PE is not significant, with production enterprise inventory increasing by 19.09% to 515,400 tons and social inventory decreasing by 1.22% to 568,700 tons [2]. - The next round of intensive maintenance of domestic PE is expected to start in mid - August. This week, the restart of devices such as Yanchang Zhongmei and Wanhua Chemical is expected to lead to a month - on - month increase in production and capacity utilization [2]. - Affected by the leap June, the demand for domestic shed films is postponed, lengthening the off - season cycle of the downstream. Food and daily chemical packaging films have sporadic order accumulations, mainly for rigid demand [2]. - In terms of cost, due to the continuous impact of OPEC+ production increase, the remaining demand in the US fuel peak season, and the upcoming meeting between the US and Russian presidents, international oil prices are expected to fluctuate [2]. - The L2509 contract is expected to fluctuate slightly in the range of 7,200 - 7,400 yuan/ton in the short term, and the L2601 contract still faces pressure in the future, with technical attention paid to the support near 7,200 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the main polyethylene futures contract is 7,314 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; the 1 - month contract is 7,364 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the 5 - month contract is 7,367 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan; the 9 - month contract is 7,314 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan [2]. - Trading volume and open interest: The trading volume is 175,650 lots, up 17,899 lots; the open interest is 252,486 lots, down 18,026 lots [2]. - Spread and position: The 9 - 1 contract spread is - 50 yuan, up 4 yuan. The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 165,386 lots, down 4,538 lots; the short position is 167,158 lots, down 14,907 lots; the net long position is - 1,772 lots, up 10,369 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - LLDPE prices: The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China is 7,284.78 yuan/ton, up 3.91 yuan; in East China, it is 7,376.43 yuan/ton, up 2.62 yuan [2]. - Basis: The basis is - 29.22 yuan, down 20.09 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Naphtha prices: The FOB middle price of naphtha in Singapore is 61.16 US dollars/barrel, down 0.06 US dollars; the CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan is 570.5 US dollars/ton, down 0.5 US dollars [2]. - Ethylene prices: The CFR middle price of ethylene in Southeast Asia is 831 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it is 821 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - PE production and utilization rate: From August 1st to 7th, the total polyethylene production in China was 660,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.89%; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 85.72%, a month - on - month increase of 3.75 percentage points. The current national petrochemical PE operating rate is 84.08%, up 2.99 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - PE downstream operating rates: The operating rate of polyethylene packaging films is 49.3%, up 0.6 percentage points; for pipes, it is 29%, up 0.33 percentage points; for agricultural films, it is 13.07%, up 0.44 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is 12.21%, up 0.05 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 12.23%, down 0.28 percentage points [2]. - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and at - the - money call options of polyethylene is 12.55%, down 0.06 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Production and demand: From August 1st to 7th, the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increased by 0.4% compared with the previous period, among which the operating rate of agricultural films increased by 0.4% [2]. - Inventory: As of August 6th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 515,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.09%; as of August 8th, the social inventory of polyethylene was 568,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.22% [2].

Group 1: Market Performance - Last week (August 4 - August 8), the US soybean futures price fluctuated. The November contract of the US soybean main force had a weekly decline of 0.15%, and the December contract of the US soybean meal main force had a weekly increase of 1.64% [1]. - Last week, domestic soybean meal and soybean No. 1 futures prices fluctuated. The m2509 contract of the soybean meal main force had a weekly increase of 1.16%, and the a2509 contract of the soybean No. 1 main force had a weekly decline of 0.32% [1]. Group 2: International Soybean Market Fundamentals - US soybean sales increased week - on - week and were higher than expected. In the week ending July 31, the 2024/25 US soybean export shipments were about 690,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of about 63%. The cumulative 2024/25 US soybean export shipments were about 47.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 12%. The current and next - year net sales of US soybeans were about 1.02 million tons, higher than the expected 300,000 - 800,000 tons [1]. - The US soybean good - to - excellent rate decreased week - on - week and met expectations. As of the week ending August 4, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 69%, compared with 70% the previous week and 68% the same period last year [1]. - The Brazilian soybean CNF premium, import cost, and crush margin: As of the week ending August 8, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for October delivery increased week - on - week, the average import cost increased week - on - week, and the average crush margin increased week - on - week [1]. - The weather forecast for the US soybean main production areas: In mid - August (August 13 - August 21), precipitation in the US soybean main production areas will decrease and the temperature will be higher, which has a slightly positive impact [1]. Group 3: Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market - Sales volume: The soybean meal sales volume increased week - on - week. As of the week ending August 8, the average daily sales volume of soybean meal of mainstream oil mills in China was about 510,000 tons, compared with about 300,000 tons the previous week [2]. - Pick - up volume: The soybean meal pick - up volume decreased week - on - week. As of the week ending August 8, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal of major oil mills was about 188,000 tons, compared with about 194,000 tons the previous week [2]. - Basis: The soybean meal basis increased week - on - week. As of the week ending August 8, the average weekly basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) was about - 112 yuan/ton, compared with about - 123 yuan/ton the previous week [3]. - Inventory: The soybean meal inventory was basically flat week - on - week and decreased year - on - year. As of the week ending August 1, the soybean meal inventory of mainstream oil mills in China was about 920,000 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of about 31% [3]. - Crushing volume: The domestic soybean weekly crushing volume decreased week - on - week and is expected to increase next week. As of the week ending August 8, the domestic soybean weekly crushing volume was about 2.18 million tons, and it is expected to be about 2.37 million tons next week [3]. Group 4: Domestic Soybean No. 1 Spot Market - Prices: The soybean prices in the Northeast production area were slightly weaker, while those in other areas were stable. The purchase price of clean soybeans in some Northeast areas decreased by 20 yuan/ton, while that in some areas in the Inner Pass remained the same as the previous week [4]. - New soybean growth: The new soybeans in the Northeast production area are growing well, and the willingness to hold prices has weakened. There is an expectation of a bumper harvest in many places if there is no extreme weather later [4]. - State - reserve auction: The one - way auction of state - reserve soybeans started, and the first auction ended in failure. On August 8, 32,294 tons of domestic soybeans were planned to be auctioned at a base price of 4,200 yuan/ton, all of which were unsold [4]. - Demand in the sales area: The demand in the sales area is flat. Although the Beginning of Autumn has passed, the temperature in many places is still high, and it will take time for the terminal demand for soybean products to recover [4]. Group 5: Market Forecast - Next week (August 11 - August 15), the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean No. 1 futures are expected to fluctuate. Domestic soybean meal will be slightly stronger due to concerns about the trade war. For domestic soybeans, the spot price in the Northeast production area is slightly weaker, and the new soybeans are growing well [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The CBOT soybean is expected to maintain a wide - range bottom - oscillating pattern. The domestic DCE soybean meal may have a limited rebound due to high inventory, with the M01 contract expected to be strong. The spot price of soybean meal is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger, and the basis will gradually strengthen in the long - term. [19][20] - For live hogs, short - term prices are dominated by the slaughter rhythm, with fluctuations. The supply may first decrease and then increase, and the price is expected to oscillate slightly weaker. [20][21] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Overview - The DCE soybean meal main 2509 contract rose 0.46% to 3045 yuan/ton, with coastal oil mills' quotes down 10 - 30 yuan/ton in some areas. The DCE live hog main 2509 contract rose 0.43% to 13930 yuan/ton. The national average ex - factory price of live hogs decreased. The CBOT soybean main contract rose 0.94%. [1][2] 3.2 Main Production Area Weather - The US Midwest planting belt will have rain this week, with favorable weather conditions. There will be scattered showers from Tuesday to Saturday, and the temperature will change from near - normal to above - normal. The growth conditions of corn and soybeans are favorable. [3][4] 3.3 Macroeconomic and Industry News - US soybean exports increased significantly. As of July 31, 2025, the net sales of 2024/25 US soybeans increased by 71% week - on - week and 63% compared to the four - week average. The 2025/26 net sales also exceeded expectations. [5] - The import cost of US, Brazilian, and Argentine soybeans increased on August 8. [5] - On August 7, the domestic mainstream oil mills' soybean meal trading volume shrank, with spot volume up and basis volume down. [5] - As of August 5, only 3% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, down from 5% the previous week. [5] - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting area is expected to grow at the slowest pace in nearly 20 years, with an increase of 1.43%. The production is expected to be 1.6656 billion tons, lower than the previous year. [6] - Brazil's soybean, soybean meal, and corn exports in August are expected to be 815, 174, and 758 million tons respectively. [6] - China imported 1167 million tons of soybeans in July, down 4.8% from June but the highest for the same period in history, with the first - seven - month total up 4.6% year - on - year. The market expects imports in August and September to remain above 1000 million tons, but there are concerns about the fourth - quarter supply. [7] - On August 7, the slaughter enterprises' operating rate was 26.94%, up 0.11 percentage points week - on - week. [7] - The US initial jobless claims last week were 226,000, slightly higher than expected. [7] - China's foreign exchange reserves at the end of July were 3292.2 billion US dollars, down 0.76%. The gold reserves increased by 600,000 ounces. [8] 3.4 Data Charts The report provides charts on prices, basis, and inventories of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and live hogs, as well as China's soybean and soybean meal inventories. [11][13][17][18] 3.5 Analysis and Strategies - For soybean meal, the CBOT soybean rebounds from a four - month low but may be limited by potential high yields. The domestic DCE soybean meal is affected by high inventory, with the M01 contract expected to be strong. The spot price is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger, and the basis will strengthen in the long - term. [19][20] - For live hogs, short - term prices are affected by the slaughter rhythm. Supply may first decrease and then increase, and the price is expected to oscillate slightly weaker. [20][21]

焦煤焦炭产业日报 2025/8/7 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1229.50 | +8.50↑ | J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1667.50 | +23.00↑ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 915031.00 | +52616.00↑ | J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 53400.00 | +461.00↑ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -97157.00 | -2440.00↓ | 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -7122.00 | +338.00↑ | | | JM1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 142.50 | -4.50↓ | J1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 76.50 | -11.50↓ | | | 焦煤仓单（日，张） | 0.00 | 0.00 | 焦炭仓单（日，张） | 800.00 | 0.00 | | | 干其毛都蒙5原煤（ ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Overall**: The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the rapeseed - related industries, including futures, spot, upstream, industry, and downstream situations. It offers short - term trading suggestions for both rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil based on various factors such as supply, demand, and market trends [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Although near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, reducing supply pressure, and there is a seasonal increase in aquaculture demand, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The market is volatile, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: In the domestic market, the off - season of oil consumption, high inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills, and abundant vegetable oil supply restrain prices. However, the decrease in the oil mill operating rate and less rapeseed purchase in the third quarter reduce supply pressure. The short - term trend is range - bound, and short - term participation is advised [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Prices**: The futures closing prices of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, ICE rapeseed, and domestic rapeseed all decreased. For example, the futures closing price of rapeseed oil (active contract) was 9496 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan; the futures closing price of ICE rapeseed (active) was 669.8 Canadian dollars/ton, down 2.3 Canadian dollars [2]. - **Spreads and Positions**: The month - to - month spreads of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal decreased, and the net long positions of the top 20 futures holders also decreased. The main contract positions of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal decreased. The rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal warehouse receipts changed differently, with rapeseed oil unchanged and rapeseed meal increasing by 2753 [2]. Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot prices of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan/ton, the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu remained unchanged at 6000 yuan/ton, and the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong decreased by 60 yuan/ton. The oil - meal ratio decreased by 0.05 to 3.55 [2]. - **Substitute Prices**: The spot prices of palm oil and soybean oil increased, and the spot price of soybean meal remained unchanged. The price differences between rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and rapeseed oil and palm oil decreased, while the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased [2]. Upstream Situation - **Production and Imports**: The global rapeseed production prediction increased slightly, while the domestic rapeseed import quantity decreased by 15.1 tons to 18.45 tons. The import quantity of rapeseed oil and mustard oil increased by 4 tons to 15 tons, and the import quantity of rapeseed meal increased by 7.56 tons to 27.03 tons [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills decreased by 5 tons to 10 tons, and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed increased by 1.59 percentage points to 16.52% [2]. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The coastal and regional inventories of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal changed. Coastal rapeseed oil inventory increased by 1.1 tons to 10.65 tons, and coastal rapeseed meal inventory increased by 0.8 tons to 2.7 tons. The inventories in different regions such as East China and Guangxi also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Production and Consumption**: The monthly production of feed and edible vegetable oil increased, and the monthly social retail sales of catering also increased [2]. Key Points - **Market Trends**: The rapeseed futures in ICE closed slightly lower due to the lukewarm vegetable oil market and Canadian rainfall. The good condition of US soybeans and the high inventory of domestic soybean meal suppressed the price of rapeseed meal. The change in the weather in Canada and the possible resumption of rapeseed trade between China and Australia affected the supply of rapeseed [2]. - **Suggestions**: For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, short - term participation is recommended due to the complex market situation and large price fluctuations [2]. - **Focus**: It is necessary to focus on the rapeseed operating rate and the inventories of rapeseed oil and meal in various regions released by Myagric on Monday, as well as the trends of China - Canada and Canada - US trade disputes [2].

期 货 研 究 2025 年 08 月 07 日 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20650 | 70 | 1005 | 90 | ટર્ટ | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20770 | ー | l | ー | l | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2622 | 57 | 14 | 24 | 237 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 92872 | -7124 | -32296 | -74965 | -55070 | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | -1008 | -36426 | -47469 | 224937 | ୧813 | 电解 铝 | | LME铝3M成交量 | 25282 | 13080 | 10435 | 8764 | 14763 | LME注销仓单占比 | 3.04% | 0. 23% | -0. 06% | -0. 03% | -38. ...

知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 关注微信公众号 | 集运产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年8月7日 | | | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | 现货报价 | | | | | | | 上海-欧洲未来6周运价参考 | 8月7日 | 8月6日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | MAERSK马士基 | 2877 | 2947 | -70 | -2.38% | 美元/FEU | | CMA达飞 | 3374 | 3412 | -38 | -1.11% | | | MSC地中海 | 3040 | 3040 | O | 0.00% | | | ONE海洋网联 | 2943 | 2943 | 0 | 0.00% | | | EMC长荣 | 3298 | 3316 | -18 | -0.54% | | | 集运指数 | | | | | | | 结算价指数 | 8月4日 | 7月28日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SCFIS (欧洲航线) | 229 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats Industry - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are under pressure from increased production, and Dalian palm oil futures are expected to consolidate around 9,000 yuan. - Crude oil pressure and bearish CBOT soybeans affect vegetable oil prices. Domestic soybean oil inventory is expected to decrease in the second half of the month due to improved demand [1]. Meal Industry - US soybeans are expected to find strong support around 970 - 980 cents, and the downside space for domestic soybean meal is limited. Long positions in the 2601 contract can be held, but the strength of oils may limit the rise of meal [3]. Pig Industry - Spot pig prices are slightly down but may bottom - out. The short - term outlook is not optimistic, and the 09 contract faces pressure. The 01 contract is affected by policies, and caution is needed regarding hedging funds [6]. Corn Industry - The corn market is weak in the short - term, with prices fluctuating. New - season corn may face supply pressure, and the market valuation may decline [8]. Sugar Industry - International raw sugar prices are expected to have difficulty breaking previous lows but are generally bearish. The domestic sugar market has weak demand, and a bearish trend is expected [13]. Cotton Industry - The supply - side pressure of cotton has marginally eased, but the downstream industry is still weak. Consider reducing positions in the 09 contract and holding short positions in far - month contracts [14]. Egg Industry - Egg supply is expected to increase in August, while demand will enter the peak season. However, due to large supply pressure, a bearish trading strategy is recommended [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 8,580 yuan, up 1.18%. The Y2509 futures price is 8,406 yuan, up 0.74%. The basis is 136 yuan, and the inventory is unchanged [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong is 8,900 yuan, down 0.56%. The P2509 futures price is 9,064 yuan, down 1.04%. The basis is - 164 yuan, and the inventory is unchanged [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 9,700 yuan, up 0.21%. The O1509 futures price is 9,562 yuan, down 0.55%. The basis is 138 yuan, and the inventory is unchanged [1]. Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2,920 yuan, down 0.68%. The M2509 futures price is 3,026 yuan, up 0.10%. The basis is - 106 yuan, and the inventory is unchanged [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2,690 yuan, up 1.89%. The RM2509 futures price is 2,745 yuan, up 0.77%. The basis is - 55 yuan, and the inventory is unchanged [3]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price in Harbin is 3,960 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of the main soybean contract is 4,118 yuan, up 0.05%. The basis is - 158 yuan, and the inventory is down 0.42% [3]. Pig Industry - Spot prices in various regions have slightly declined. The sample point slaughter volume decreased by 0.51%, the white - strip price decreased by 0.83%, and the self - breeding profit decreased by 29.46% [6]. Corn Industry - The corn 2509 futures price is 2,259 yuan, up 0.44%. The basis is 61 yuan, down 14.08%. The 9 - 1 spread is 10 yuan, up 18.18% [8]. - The corn starch 2509 futures price is 2,662 yuan, up 0.30%. The basis is 48 yuan, down 14.29% [8]. Sugar Industry - The sugar 2601 futures price is 5,628 yuan, down 0.18%. The ICE raw sugar主力 is 16.04 cents/pound, down 0.31%. The basis in Nanning is 317 yuan, down 4.80% [13]. - National sugar production increased by 12.03%, sales increased by 23.07%, and the industrial inventory decreased by 9.56% [13]. Cotton Industry - The cotton 2509 futures price is 13,690 yuan, up 0.26%. The ICE US cotton主力 is 66.92 cents/pound, down 0.36%. The basis of 3128B - 01 contract is 1,393 yuan, down 2.31% [14]. - Commercial inventory decreased by 10.2%, industrial inventory decreased by 2.3%, and imports decreased by 25% [14]. Egg Industry - The egg 09 contract is 3,378 yuan/500KG, up 1.44%. The egg 10 contract is 3,285 yuan/500KG, up 1.01%. The basis is - 371 yuan/500KG, down 24.51% [17]. - The estimated laying - hen inventory in August is 1.363 billion, a 0.52% increase [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 6, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1221.0, up 6.45%. With the rising expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in September, market sentiment fluctuates. Fundamentally, mine - end inventories generally decline, clean coal inventories transfer from upstream mines and coal - washing plants to downstream coal - using enterprises. The cumulative import growth rate has been declining for 3 consecutive months, and the total inventory has increased for 4 consecutive weeks. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a fluctuating and bullish trend [2]. - On August 6, the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1644.5, up 1.95%. The fifth round of price increase has been implemented. Affected by high temperatures, the national power grid's power consumption load hit a new high for the third time on August 4. Fundamentally, raw - material inventories rise. The current hot - metal output is 242.23 tons, down 1.52 tons. The coal - mine end inventory has no pressure, and the inventory transfers downstream. The total coking - coal inventory has increased for 4 consecutive weeks. In terms of profit, the average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 45 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a fluctuating and strong trend [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the JM main contract is 1221.00 yuan/ton, up 39.00; the trading volume is 862415.00 hands, up 57495.00; the net position of the top 20 contracts is - 94717.00 hands, up 12500.00; the spread between the JM1 - 9 contracts is 147.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the number of coking - coal warehouse receipts is 0.00, unchanged; the basis of the JM main contract is 179.00 yuan/ton, down 39.00 [2]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the J main contract is 1644.50 yuan/ton, up 10.00; the trading volume is 52939.00 hands, up 201.00; the net position of the top 20 contracts is - 7460.00 hands, down 258.00; the spread between the J1 - 9 contracts is 88.00 yuan/ton, up 14.50; the number of coke warehouse receipts is 800.00, up 40.00; the basis of the J main contract is 20.50 yuan/ton, down 10.00 [2]. Spot Market - **Coking Coal**: The price of Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal is 930.00 yuan/ton, down 7.00; the price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR) is 143.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Australian prime coking coal imported at Jingtang Port is 1430.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Shanxi - produced prime coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1680.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi is 1400.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia is 1100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Coke**: The price of Tangshan first - grade metallurgical coke is 1665.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port is 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port is 1470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - **Coking Coal**: The raw - coal inventory of 110 coal - washing plants is 277.10 million tons, down 15.43; the clean - coal inventory is 166.39 million tons, down 9.23; the operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants is 61.51%, down 0.80; the raw - coal output is 42107.40 million tons, up 1779.00; the import volume of coal and lignite is 3304.00 million tons, down 300.00; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines is 193.60 million tons, down 1.20; the inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports is 493.94 million tons, down 18.10; the total inventory of coking coal in the full - sample of independent coking enterprises is 992.73 million tons, up 7.35; the inventory of coking coal in 247 steel mills across the country is 803.79 million tons, up 4.28; the available days of coking coal in the full - sample of independent coking enterprises is 12.87 days, up 0.12; the import volume of coking coal is 910.84 million tons, up 172.10; the output of coking coal is 4064.38 million tons, down 5.89 [2]. - **Coke**: The inventory of coke at 18 ports is 270.90 million tons, up 20.57; the inventory of coke in the full - sample of independent coking enterprises is 73.62 million tons, down 6.50; the inventory of coke in 247 steel - mill samples across the country is 626.69 million tons, down 13.29; the available days of coke in 247 steel - mill samples is 11.17 days, down 0.28; the export volume of coke and semi - coke is 51.00 million tons, down 17.00; the output of coke is 4170.30 million tons, down 67.30 [2]. Industry Situation - The operating rate of independent coking enterprises is 73.69%, up 0.24; the profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants is - 45.00 yuan/ton, up 9.00 [2]. Downstream Situation - The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills across the country is 83.48%, unchanged; the blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.22%, down 0.56; the crude - steel output is 8318.40 million tons, down 336.10 [2]. Industry News - On July 30, the 11th council (expanded) meeting of the sixth session of the China Iron and Steel Industry Association was held in Beijing, focusing on "controlling production capacity, combating involution, strengthening collaboration, and promoting transformation" [2]. - The General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Gradually Implementing Free Preschool Education", exempting the tuition fees of children in public kindergartens for the first year of preschool education from the fall semester of 2025 [2]. - The latest meeting minutes of the Bank of Japan show that if economic growth and inflation continue as expected, the bank will further raise interest rates [2]. - Goldman Sachs and Citigroup suggest that if the non - farm payrolls worsen, the Fed may cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September, with the terminal interest rate at 3% or lower [2]. - The Fed indicates that the proportion of seriously overdue consumer loans in the US in Q2 has reached the highest level since the pandemic [2].