Market Overview - The commodity market saw an overall increase of 2.29% last week, with significant gains in the energy sector at 4.11% [1] - Agricultural products and black metals rose by 2.10% and 0.91% respectively, while precious metals and non-ferrous metals experienced declines of 1.76% and 0.09% [1] Specific Commodity Performance - Crude oil, methanol, and short fibers had the highest closing price increases at 8.82%, 5.86%, and 5.31% respectively [1] - Precious metals like gold, pulp, and silver saw notable declines of 1.99%, 1.50%, and 1.44% respectively [1] Capital Flow and Market Sentiment - There was a decrease in capital flow, primarily influenced by outflows from precious metals [1] - The evolving situation in the Middle East, particularly the U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, is expected to impact short-term asset pricing and market dynamics [1] Energy Sector Insights - Oil prices surged due to tensions in the Middle East and a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. inventories, with OPEC+ effectively executing production cuts [1] - Positive expectations for summer oil demand have led to increases in fuel and asphalt prices [1] Chemical Sector Trends - The chemical sector generally strengthened due to rising energy prices, with methanol and other products experiencing a rebound [1] - However, the recovery of downstream demand remains uncertain, indicating a market driven by trading rather than sustained growth [1] Agricultural Sector Analysis - The oilseed and oil sector showed a strong upward trend, supported by domestic production cuts and policy expectations, despite weak soybean exports [1] - Corn prices faced pressure due to import substitution and declining profitability, while the hog market experienced fluctuations amid seasonal consumption declines [1]

美联储古尔斯比：不会卷入有关美联储政策的党派纷争。(新浪财经) ...

截至6月23日亚盘早市，黄金现货价格跳空至3385.71开盘，随后回调至3364.78美元/盎司附近，跌幅0.11%，盘中一度因 美军空袭伊朗核设施跳涨近30美元，但避险情绪未能持续。白银市场呈现类似走势，伦敦银现价格回落至36.03美元/盎 司，较开盘下跌0.14%。 | 昨收 | 3368.52 | 最高 | 3398.02 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 开盘 | 3385.71 | | 3351.93 | | 买入 | 3364.78 | 卖出 | 3364.98 | 美军于6月21日动用B-2隐形轰炸机对伊朗福尔多、纳坦兹等核设施发动空袭，投掷6枚钻地弹及30枚战斧导弹，伊朗随后 以导弹和无人机报复，但黄金价格仅短暂冲高后回调。 市场对地缘风险的"疲劳效应"显著，投资者更关注美联储政策路径及经济数据对黄金的中长期影响。尽管伊朗威胁封锁 霍尔木兹海峡可能推升油价，但布伦特原油仅微涨0.5%至78.3美元/桶，显示市场对短期能源供应中断的担忧有限。 一、地缘冲突与市场反应： 白银：日线级别仍处于35.50-36.50美元震荡区间，15分钟图在36.17美元（前高）附近遇阻，若 ...

尽管宏观情绪有所改善，但Hatzius警告称，美国对伊朗采取军事行动的风险仍是潜在威胁。虽然预测 市场显示爆发即时冲突的概率略有下降，但原油价格较6月初仍上涨约10美元/桶，折射出市场对局势升 级乃至霍尔木兹海峡中断的深层忧虑。 智通财经APP获悉，尽管地缘冲突频发且贸易环境动荡，美元近期的疲软表现仍令市场困惑。对此，高 盛在题为《失声之犬》(The Dog That Didn't Bark)的最新报告中指出，即便短期衰退忧虑缓解，周期性 利好因素仍不足以抵消美国经济面临的结构性阻力。 高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius在6月21日的报告中阐释："我们认为，周期性顺风不足以抵消更长期的逆 风。"他特别指出，美元表现逊色的根源在于两大结构性挑战：一是估值仍处历史高位，二是吸引非对 冲资本流入为占GDP 4%的经常账户赤字融资的难度与日俱增。 该行外汇策略团队预计美元将延续跌势，尤其对欧元和日元等汇率可能进一步走弱。其他重要预判包 括：黄金价格将重启升势，英国短期利率有望下行。 关税趋稳难驱阴霾 虽然预期中的美国关税上调幅度趋于稳定为金融市场带来些许宽慰，但美元依旧萎靡不振。高盛预测 2025年美国实际关税税 ...

Report Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of SHFE zinc 2507 closed at 21,845 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, up 0.14% week-on-week. The SHFE zinc market was volatile this week due to the mixed macro situation and the fundamentals of increasing supply and weakening demand in the off - season, with signs of inventory accumulation and weakening spot premiums [3]. - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and Fed officials' differences became public. In June, the processing fees continued to rise, smelters were highly motivated to produce, and the output from newly - put - into - operation smelters and the resumption of some overhauled smelters are expected to lead to an increase in production in June, making the domestic supply gradually more relaxed. The zinc import window closed in June [3]. - This week, the downstream开工 was under pressure. The galvanizing开工 decreased, the orders for galvanized pipes were few, and the demand for galvanized structural parts weakened in the off - season. The开工 of die - casting zinc alloys decreased, and the demand weakened with a slower shipment rhythm. The开工 of zinc oxide remained flat with weakening orders, but some zinc oxide enterprises are expected to resume production next week, and the开工 may increase slightly [3]. - The domestic zinc ingot spot inventory increased, while the LME zinc inventory continued to decrease. With the Fed's stance, high production enthusiasm of smelters, expected increase in zinc ingot production, weakening demand in the off - season, and signs of inventory accumulation despite the low social inventory of zinc ingots, it is recommended to short SHFE zinc at high prices [3]. Summary by Directory 01 Price Data - The SHFE zinc market was volatile this week. The spread between SHFE zinc 07 - 08 contracts weakened week - on - week, and the LME zinc 0 - 3M backwardation changed little week - on - week. Due to weak downstream demand, the spot premium decreased [8][12][17]. 02 Fundamental Data - This week, the port inventory of zinc concentrates decreased by 0.1 million tons week - on - week, and the raw material inventory increased by 1.4 million tons [20]. - In June, the processing fees continued to rise, smelters were highly motivated to produce, and the production in June is expected to increase, making the domestic supply gradually more relaxed [23][24]. - In May, the net import of refined zinc was 2.53 million tons, with imports of 2.67 million tons and exports of 0.14 million tons [27]. - This week, the downstream开工 was under pressure. Traders replenished less inventory, the orders for galvanized pipes were few, and the demand for galvanized structural parts weakened in the off - season [28][31][35]. - The domestic zinc ingot spot inventory increased this week, the inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone decreased, and the LME zinc inventory continued to decrease [37][38]. - Last week, the new - home sales in 10 key cities increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year, while the second - hand home sales increased both week - on - week and year - on - year [44][45]. - In June, the production plan of household air conditioners was 20.5 million units, a 11.5% increase compared to the actual performance of the same period last year; the production plan of refrigerators was 7.9 million units, a 3.6% increase; the production plan of washing machines was 6.75 million units, the same as the actual performance of the same period last year; from June 1 - 15, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in the national market increased by 38% year - on - year; and the domestic photovoltaic module production continued to decrease in June [49][51][54][59].

1.黄金建议反弹3375-3380区域做空，止损在3388，目标3360-3340. 文章没有太多华丽的语言与鸡汤，一直如此，我相信每一位读者缺乏的不是鸡汤，而是实实在在的分析与强大的理论，我是翁富豪老师，最后祝大家交易愉 快。免责申明:以上纯属个人观点分享，不构成操作建议，投资有风险，盈亏自负。 从黄金4小时K线形态分析，当前多头动能阶段性占优，但上方3380-3385区域存在显著技术阻力。金价虽出现回调，但尚未有效击穿上升通道下沿，中长期 上行趋势结构保持完整。若中东地缘冲突加剧或国际贸易风险升级，可能触发技术性反弹修复行情。日线级别收出十字星形态，价格回踩布林带中轨支撑 位，整体维持震荡下行运行节奏。小时图级别呈现明显下跌特征，在未突破关键压力位前建议维持空头交易策略。短期阻力区间确认为3380-3385，下方支 撑区间位于3335-3330。下周操作翁富豪建议黄金价格反弹至3375-3380区域可考虑布局空单，需严格设置止损并控制仓位风险。 操作策略： 金价周五持稳于3368一线，但周线累计下跌1.8%。最新FOMC声明强化美联储谨慎立场，维持联邦基金利率4.25%-4.50%区间不变，但下调2025 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that copper prices are expected to decline for the second consecutive week due to three main factors: Middle East conflicts, weak demand, and Federal Reserve policies [1] Group 2 - The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East are contributing to market uncertainty, impacting copper prices negatively [1] - Weak demand in key markets is further exacerbating the downward pressure on copper prices [1] - Federal Reserve policies, particularly regarding interest rates, are influencing investor sentiment and market dynamics in the copper sector [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are under pressure from hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve and a strengthening dollar, while geopolitical risks and inflation expectations provide support [1] - Short-term dynamics suggest that the escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict may drive safe-haven buying, but the long-term trend will be dominated by the Federal Reserve's policy path and the actual effects of trade policies [1] - Key factors to monitor include U.S. policy movements towards Iran, progress in nuclear negotiations, and the Federal Reserve's stance on inflation response [1] Group 2 - Current trading strategy for gold suggests maintaining a bearish outlook, with resistance at 3385 and support in the 3330-3320 range [3] - The strategy emphasizes short positions on rebounds in the 3360-3365 area, with a stop-loss at 3388 and a target of 3340-3320 [4] - The analysis focuses on practical trading strategies rather than motivational content, aiming to provide concrete insights for traders [4]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are attempting to rebound from a weekly low of $3,360 amid rising demand for the US dollar due to escalating tensions in the Middle East and a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Reports suggest the US may attack Iran this weekend, increasing demand for the dollar and impacting gold prices [2]. - Gold prices broke the critical support level of $3,377 but found new buyers near the weekly low of $3,363 due to renewed interest in safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions [2][4]. - The Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate at 4.25%-4.5%, aligning with expectations, while keeping forecasts for two rate cuts this year unchanged [2][3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The bullish bias for gold remains intact, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) above the midline, currently close to 55 [9]. - Gold needs to reclaim the $3,377 resistance level on a sustained basis to initiate a new upward trend, with the next significant resistance at $3,400 and static resistance at $3,440 [9]. - Immediate downside support is at the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $3,348, with further support at the 50-day SMA of $3,308 [11][12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The upcoming "June Festival" holiday in the US may lead to liquidity shortages, potentially exaggerating gold price volatility [5]. - Traders will closely monitor developments in the Middle East conflict for new trading signals regarding gold prices [6].

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a collective decline on Thursday, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices falling by 0.79% and 1.21% respectively, indicating a bearish market sentiment with a stock ratio of 725 gainers to 4710 losers [1] - The decline in A-shares is attributed to external risk events, including rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have heightened market risk aversion and caused short-term volatility in international oil prices, impacting sectors like oil and gold [3] - The market is also facing pressure from the Federal Reserve's policy expectations, as there is a divergence in views regarding future interest rate cuts, which has hindered foreign capital inflow into A-shares, particularly affecting high-valuation tech stocks such as semiconductors and AI [4] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index has failed to break through the key resistance level of 3400 points, leading to a bearish reversal pattern and significant exhaustion of bullish momentum, with a clear bearish technical formation [4] - The ChiNext 1000 Index has shown consecutive declines, reflecting increased selling pressure on small-cap stocks, which has weakened the overall market's profitability [4] - The A-share market is currently testing key technical support levels, with the Shanghai Composite Index's critical support at 3378 points already breached, suggesting a potential decline towards 3350 points if it cannot break through short-term resistance levels [4] Group 3 - Certain previously popular sectors, such as the new energy vehicle industry, are experiencing adjustments due to the tapering of subsidy policies, leading to a slowdown in industry growth and challenges in earnings growth for related companies, which has negatively impacted stock prices [4] - Cyclical industries like steel and coal continue to face issues of overcapacity and significant price volatility, resulting in unstable profitability for companies in these sectors, further contributing to poor stock performance [4] - The market currently lacks clear hotspots and profitability, leading to reduced investor participation and heightened cautious sentiment, which can trigger panic selling in response to market fluctuations [4] Group 4 - A-shares are expected to continue declining on Friday, as the panic sentiment from Thursday's market drop is unlikely to dissipate quickly, maintaining strong selling intentions among investors [5] - The technical outlook shows that major indices have breached important moving average support levels, establishing a clear downward trend that is difficult to reverse in the short term [5]