Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.46%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.05%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 2.29% at the close [1] - Over 3,200 stocks in the two markets experienced gains, with a total trading volume of 2.75 trillion [1] Sector Performance - Precious metals saw a strong rally, closing up by 8.82%, with stocks like Xiaocheng Technology rising by 3.43% and several gold and silver companies hitting the daily limit [3] - Sectors such as monoclonal antibodies, jewelry, optical communication modules, CPO concepts, and innovative drugs all recorded gains above 3% [3] - The insurance sector faced a decline, closing down by 2.58%, with New China Life Insurance falling by 3.65% and other major insurers also experiencing declines of over 2% [3] - Other sectors like aerospace, brokerage, airport, wheel motor, and banking followed the insurance sector in terms of adjustments [3] Market Sentiment - Despite the three major indices closing in the green, market hotspots appeared disorganized, with financial stocks collectively adjusting and insurance stocks leading the decline [3] - The strong performance of the gold sector indicates a growing risk-averse sentiment among investors, suggesting a potential for market correction and reallocation opportunities [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, both risk aversion and expectations of interest rate cuts increased, leading to a significant rise in gold prices. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, Russia - Ukraine, and Thailand - Cambodia, along with Trump's attempt to remove Fed Governor Cook and the release of dovish signals by Fed officials, boosted gold prices [2]. - This week (the week of September 1st), gold prices are expected to remain at a high level. The anticipated weakness in the US August non - farm payrolls report and continued geopolitical risks will support gold prices [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Market Review - **Gold Spot and Futures Price Movements**: On August 29th, the Shanghai gold futures price recovered by 1.52% to 785.12 yuan/gram, and the COMEX gold futures price rose 2.89% to 3516.10 dollars/ounce. Gold T + D spot price increased 1.31% to 781.70 yuan/gram, and the London gold spot price rose 2.24% to 3446.81 dollars/ounce [2][5]. - **Gold Basis**: The international gold basis (spot - futures) was - 46.35 dollars/ounce, down 7.00 dollars/ounce from the previous Friday. The Shanghai gold basis was - 1.30 yuan/gram, down 1.01 yuan/gram [8]. - **Gold Domestic - Foreign Price Difference**: The gold domestic - foreign price difference on Friday was - 22.25 yuan/gram, lower than the previous Friday. The gold - oil ratio increased, the gold - silver ratio decreased, and the gold - copper ratio rose [11]. - **Position Analysis**: Gold ETF holdings increased. The SPRD gold ETF fund's holdings reached 977.68 tons, up 20.91 tons. Domestic gold T + D trading volume increased by 27.25%. Gold CFTC asset management institutions' net long positions increased, and COMEX gold futures inventory and SHFE gold inventory rose [14]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Fundamentals - **Important Economic Data**: Trump threatened to remove Fed Governor Cook, which may lead to a constitutional crisis. US July durable goods orders were - 2.8% month - on - month, and core capital goods orders had the fastest growth in nearly three years. US Q2 GDP was revised up to 3.3%. US July core PCE price index increased year - on - year [19][20][21]. - **Fed Policy Tracking**: Richmond Fed President Barkin expected only minor interest rate adjustments. Fed Governor Waller supported a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September and expected further cuts in the next three to six months. San Francisco Fed President Daly hinted at a rate cut soon [30]. - **US Dollar Index Movement**: The US dollar index rose slightly last week. Geopolitical conflicts drove it up on Monday, but Trump's move and weak economic data caused it to fall later. It ended up 0.13% at 97.85 [31]. - **US TIPS Yield Movement**: The US 10 - year TIPS yield declined slightly due to Trump's move and dovish Fed statements. It was down 3bp to 1.82% [33]. - **International Important Event Tracking**: The Middle East and Russia - Ukraine situations were deadlocked. Israel continued to attack Gaza, and Russia launched an attack on Kiev while still expressing willingness for peace talks [36].

Group 1 - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve are driving risk-averse sentiment, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts ahead of the upcoming monetary policy meeting [1] - The U.S. stock index futures are declining, with the Dow futures down 0.1%, S&P 500 futures down 0.06%, and Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.14% [2] - European stocks opened lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.04%, DAX down 0.2%, and FTSE 100 down 0.25%, while the CAC 40 index increased by 0.3% [2] Group 2 - Gold and silver prices have surged to record highs, with spot gold surpassing $3,500 and silver reaching a 14-year high, driven by risk aversion and expectations of rate cuts [2] - The Japanese 10-year government bond auction showed strong demand, with the bid-to-cover ratio reaching the highest level since October 2023, leading to a decrease in yields [2] - Crude oil prices have increased, with Brent crude rising by 0.57% to $68.52 per barrel and WTI crude up 1.59% to $64.99 per barrel [2]

Core Viewpoint - The current trend in the gold market indicates a bullish outlook, with prices showing strong upward momentum and breaking through significant resistance levels [1][3]. Price Movement - As of September 2, the price of London gold reached $3,492.67 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.50% and a peak of $3,508.49 per ounce [1]. - Over the past five trading days, gold has accumulated a rise of over 3%, with a recent high of $3,508.46 per ounce, reflecting a gain of approximately 0.93% [3]. - After breaching the $3,500 mark, gold experienced a quick pullback of nearly $20, currently trading around $3,492.84 per ounce [3]. Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that the demand for gold reserves is increasing in importance compared to U.S. Treasury securities, reinforcing gold's status as a reliable safe-haven asset [3]. - The current macroeconomic environment characterized by monetary easing and heightened risk aversion is driving gold prices higher [3]. - The weak U.S. dollar and global uncertainties are contributing factors that may allow gold to continue challenging historical highs [3]. Technical Analysis - The weekly chart shows a gradual recovery in technical patterns, with short-term moving averages beginning to trend upwards, indicating potential for further price increases [5]. - The daily chart indicates that gold prices are maintaining a strong upward trend without signs of peaking, with a focus on the resistance level around $3,520 [5]. - The hourly chart shows a minor consolidation followed by a second upward movement, suggesting that traders should watch for potential pullbacks before further gains [5]. Trading Strategy - The current trading strategy suggests entering long positions at the current price of $3,495, with a protective stop-loss set at $3,488, and to adjust stop-loss levels as prices rise above $3,500 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has reached a historical high of $3557.1 per ounce, driven by rising expectations of interest rate cuts and increased investor risk aversion, with a notable 2.86% increase last week and over 5% for the month of August, marking the best monthly performance since April [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 1, the COMEX gold futures price peaked at $3557.1 per ounce, setting a new historical record [1] - The gold price has seen a cumulative increase of over 5% in August, the best monthly performance since April [1] - The gold stocks ETF fund has experienced a 12.91% increase over the past week, ranking it in the top 1/6 of comparable funds [2] Group 2: Institutional Insights - Multiple institutions have raised their gold price forecasts, with many believing that reaching $4000 per ounce next year is feasible [1] - Citic Securities' report indicates that the core PCE inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve has shown a moderate increase, stabilizing market expectations for a rate cut in September [1] Group 3: ETF Fund Performance - The gold stocks ETF fund has seen a net inflow of 41.73 million yuan over the past five trading days, indicating strong market interest [2] - The fund's one-year net value has increased by 56.28%, with a historical holding period showing a 100% probability of profit [3] - The fund's Sharpe ratio stands at 1.51, ranking it in the top 2/6 of comparable funds, indicating higher returns for the same level of risk [5] Group 4: Index Composition - The China Securities Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock Index includes 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales, reflecting the overall performance of gold industry stocks in the mainland and Hong Kong markets [5] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 66.52% of the total, with major companies like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold leading the list [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the Gold ETF fund indicates a strong upward trend, driven by market reactions to political events and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Performance - As of September 1, 2025, the Gold ETF fund has seen a net value increase of 82.22% over the past five years, ranking it among the top two comparable funds [2]. - The fund has achieved a maximum monthly return of 10.62% since its inception, with the longest streak of consecutive monthly gains being six months and a maximum cumulative gain of 16.53% [2]. - The fund's performance ratio shows that it has had 74 months of gains compared to 58 months of losses, with an average monthly return of 3.21% and an annual profit percentage of 80.00% [2]. - The fund has a 100% probability of profit for investors holding it for three years [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Gold ETF fund has experienced a 0.66% increase as of September 2, 2025, marking its fourth consecutive rise, with a latest price of 7.68 yuan [1]. - The fund's trading volume reached 3.08 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.06% [1]. - The expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is at 87%, which enhances the attractiveness of gold as a non-yielding asset [1]. Group 3: Risk and Management - The fund's management fee is set at 0.50%, while the custody fee is 0.10% [5]. - The tracking error for the fund over the past month is 0.002%, indicating high tracking precision compared to similar funds [5]. - The fund has a year-to-date relative drawdown of 0.50% as of September 1, 2025 [4].

Group 1 - Domestic futures market shows mixed performance with polysilicon rising nearly 5% and low-sulfur fuel oil and silver increasing over 2% [2] - Lithium carbonate and caustic soda have seen declines exceeding 1%, while styrene and ethylene glycol are down nearly 1% [2] - Gold prices have surged, with international gold prices increasing by 2.86% last week and over 5% for the month of August, marking the best monthly performance since April [3] Group 2 - The market is anticipating upcoming U.S. labor data, including JOLTS job openings and ADP non-farm payroll data, which may influence expectations for the non-farm payroll report [4] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish signals have raised expectations for a rate cut in September to over 90%, contributing to a weaker dollar index [4] - Silver prices have surpassed $40 per ounce for the first time since 2011, approaching historical highs, indicating a positive outlook for precious metals [4]

Core Viewpoint - The market is betting on an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, driven by macroeconomic policy expectations, leading to a significant rise in precious metal futures, particularly silver [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The CME FedWatch tool indicates an 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, enhancing the appeal of gold and silver as non-yielding assets [1] - The anticipated rate cut is expected to lower interest rates, further boosting investment attractiveness in precious metals [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Political Factors - Recent court rulings regarding tariffs imposed during the Trump administration have heightened uncertainty in the trade environment and economic outlook, contributing to increased risk aversion in the market [1] - The ongoing fallout from Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook has raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, further fueling risk aversion and benefiting precious metal prices [1] Group 3: Price Movements and Projections - On September 1, gold prices surged, reaching a record high of $3557.1 per ounce during trading, closing at $3545.8 per ounce, marking a 0.84% increase [2] - The China Gold ETF (518850) rose by 1.98%, while the Gold Stock ETF (159562) increased by 7.85% [2] - Technical analysis suggests that gold could target $3900-$4000 per ounce, while silver may challenge historical highs of $49-$50 per ounce [1]

科斯塔表示，欧盟不欢迎关税，美国必须明白，欧盟将始终捍卫其主权及其公民和企业的利益。 早上好！先来看重要资讯。 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为10.4%，降息25个基点的概率为89.6%。美联储 10月维持利率不变的概率为4.9%，累计降息25个基点的概率为47.3%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 47.9%。 欧洲理事会主席：欧盟不欢迎关税将始终捍卫主权及公民和企业利益 据央视报道，欧洲理事会主席科斯塔当地时间9月1日在讲话中承认，许多欧洲人感到沮丧，认为欧盟在 与美国的贸易中以及乌克兰问题上过于被动。 周一，贵金属市场大放异彩。COMEX黄金、白银期货价格均创历史新高，其中，COMEX黄金盘中最 高价达3557.1美元/盎司，COMEX白银盘中最高价触及41.64美元/盎司。国内方面，截至收盘，沪金主 力2510合约报收于800.56元/克，涨幅为2.08%；沪银主力2510合约报收于9775元/千克，涨幅达4.16%， 创上市以来新高。 科斯塔同时表示，欧盟正在全球范围内建立更强大的贸易和工业伙伴关系，这不仅是为了促进贸易，也 是为了提高可预测性和弹性，减少战略依赖。 德国防长驳斥 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in September is 10.4%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 89.6% [1] - In October, the probability of maintaining rates is 4.9%, with a cumulative 25 basis point cut probability of 47.3% and a 50 basis point cut probability of 47.9% [1] Group 2: European Union Trade Relations - The President of the European Council, Costa, stated that the EU does not welcome tariffs and will defend its sovereignty and the interests of its citizens and businesses [2] - Costa acknowledged that many Europeans feel frustrated with the EU's passive stance in trade with the U.S. and the Ukraine issue [2] - The EU is working to establish stronger global trade and industrial partnerships to enhance predictability and resilience, reducing strategic dependencies [2] Group 3: Military and Geopolitical Tensions - German Defense Minister Pistorius refuted EU Commission President von der Leyen's claims about deploying European troops to Ukraine, stating she lacks the authority to discuss such matters [3] - The German government has remained largely silent on discussions regarding sending peacekeeping troops to Ukraine, deeming it "premature" [3] - Venezuelan President Maduro claimed that Venezuela faces the greatest threat in a century from U.S. military presence, with significant naval deployments in the Caribbean [4] Group 4: Precious Metals Market - Gold and silver futures prices reached historical highs, with COMEX gold peaking at $3,557.1 per ounce and silver at $41.64 per ounce [5] - The surge in precious metals prices is driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and heightened risk aversion in the market [5][6] - Silver's performance is bolstered by strong industrial demand and a persistent supply deficit, particularly in solar energy and electronics [6][8] Group 5: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - The core PCE index in the U.S. has shown a continuous rise, and the second-quarter GDP was revised up to 3.3%, indicating persistent inflation risks [7] - The demand for gold remains strong despite increased mining supply, while central banks continue to maintain a steady net purchase of gold [8] - The outlook for precious metals prices remains bullish, with potential further increases if U.S. economic data shows a moderate decline and the Fed proceeds with rate cuts [9]