聚丙烯风险管理日报 聚丙烯风险管理日报 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 顾恒烨（期货从业证号：F03143348 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚丙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 聚丙烯 | 6950-7100 | 10.75% | 42.8% | 戴一帆 2025-05-13 17:12:17 source： 南华研究 聚丙烯套保策略表 | 行为 | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖 | 套保比例(%) | 建议入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 导向 | | 敞口 | | | 方向 | | 场区间 | | 库存 管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心 聚丙烯价格下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情 况，做空聚丙烯期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生 产成本 | PP2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 7100-7 150 | | ...

| | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁 | 5700-6000 | 10.69% | 6.9% | | 硅锰 | 5500-6000 | 12.73% | 27.9% | source： 南华研究 铁合金产业风险管理日报 2025/5/13 袁铭（Z0012648）陈敏涛（F03118345 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁合金价格区间预测 铁合金套保 | 行为导 向 | | 情景分析 | 现货敞 口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心铁合金 | | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空铁合 | SF2509、SM | 卖出 | 15% | SF:6200-6250、SM: | | 理 | | 下跌 | | 金期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | ...

南华煤焦产业风险管理日报 2025/05/13 南华研究院 黑色研究团队 袁铭：Z0012648 张泫：F03118257 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 双焦风险管理策略建议 | | | | | 单位 | 2025-05-13 | 2025-05-12 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 吨 | 148997 | 168703 | -19706 | | 热卷 | 吨 | 281489 | 291446 | -9957 | | 铁矿石 | 手 | 3200 | 3200 | 0 | | 焦煤 | 手 | 5100 | 3900 | 1200 | | 焦炭 | 手 | 1690 | 1290 | 400 | | 硅铁 | 张 | 19048 | 18876 | 172 | | 硅锰 | 张 | 119280 | 118816 | 464 | source： 同花顺，Wind，南华研究, | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the relationship between carbon black prices and futures, highlighting the importance of carbon black as an industrial raw material widely used in various industries such as rubber, plastics, inks, and coatings [2] Group 2 - Background and influencing factors of carbon black prices include the supply-demand relationship of raw materials, production processes and technology, and the demand from the rubber industry [3][4] - The price of carbon black is significantly affected by fluctuations in coal prices, which is its primary raw material, as well as advancements in production technology and the overall economic conditions of the global rubber market [3][4][5] Group 3 - Carbon black futures are defined as futures contracts with carbon black as the underlying asset, providing a standardized trading platform for price discovery, risk management, and speculative trading [6] - The futures market allows participants to lock in future delivery prices, thereby mitigating the impact of price volatility, and also offers opportunities for speculative trading to gain investment returns [6][7] Group 4 - The interaction between carbon black prices and futures creates a dynamic market environment, influenced by various factors including environmental policies and regulations that affect production and usage [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - Climate change poses increasing challenges for insurance companies, with rising frequency and intensity of extreme weather events leading to higher claims and costs. The industry must shift from passive claims management to proactive defense by building a "climate immune system" [1]. Group 1: Climate Risk Management - Climate scenario analysis is a key tool for insurance companies to predict long-term climate trends and develop response strategies [1]. - Regulatory bodies are increasingly emphasizing climate risk scenario analysis and stress testing, pushing the industry from qualitative assessments to quantitative management [1][2]. - The International Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB) mandates disclosure of processes for identifying, assessing, prioritizing, and monitoring sustainability-related risks and opportunities [2]. Group 2: Importance of Climate Risk Management - Enhancing risk management capabilities is crucial as climate risks can lead to financial risks, necessitating improvements in climate risk management mechanisms [7]. - Insurance companies should leverage new opportunities and challenges in global climate risk management practices to enhance their international competitiveness [8]. - The insurance industry can contribute valuable insights and experiences in addressing climate risks, aligning with China's commitment to carbon neutrality [9]. Group 3: Tools and Strategies for Climate Risk Management - Companies should develop climate risk analysis tools that integrate traditional catastrophe models with forward-looking climate scenarios [10][14]. - It is essential to incorporate climate risk management into the overall risk management framework and processes of insurance companies [15]. - Increasing insurance coverage for climate change-related risks is necessary, as the current market shows gaps compared to international standards [16]. Group 4: Innovative Risk Mitigation Measures - Insurance companies should explore innovative risk transfer strategies, such as catastrophe reinsurance and insurance-linked securities, to mitigate potential losses from disasters [17]. - Adjusting insurance premiums can incentivize clients to enhance their resilience against climate risks, guiding them to take proactive measures [18].

Core Viewpoint - The release of the "Action Plan" aims to enhance the convenience of cross-border financial services in Shanghai, addressing the challenges posed by global trade protectionism and supporting China's high-level opening-up strategy [1][2]. Group 1: Cross-Border Financial Services Growth - The international settlement volume of listed banks has seen significant growth, indicating a promising opportunity for banks to expand their cross-border financial services [2]. - In the first four months of this year, China's total goods trade import and export value reached 14.14 trillion yuan, reflecting a 2.4% year-on-year increase, which is expected to boost domestic banks' cross-border business revenue [3]. - China Bank reported a 14.75% year-on-year increase in pre-tax profit from overseas commercial banks, highlighting the growing contribution of international business to revenue [3]. Group 2: Demand for Comprehensive Financial Services - As Chinese enterprises expand overseas, there is a substantial demand for comprehensive financial services, including cross-border settlement, financing, and foreign exchange management [4]. - The "Action Plan" outlines 18 key measures to improve cross-border settlement efficiency and optimize financial services, creating a full-service chain from settlement to risk management [5]. Group 3: Challenges in Cross-Border Financial Services - Banks face challenges in meeting regulatory requirements, which increases compliance costs and complicates the cross-border service experience for enterprises [6]. - Differences in economic development, business culture, and legal environments across countries complicate the assessment of creditworthiness for Chinese enterprises operating abroad [6]. Group 4: Initiatives by Leading Banks - Leading banks like China Bank are actively aligning their strategies with the "Action Plan" to enhance cross-border financial services and support enterprises in global investment and financing [7][8]. - The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has effectively utilized the cross-border financial service platform to improve business efficiency and customer experience [8]. Group 5: Future Directions for Banks - Banks are encouraged to enhance their policy interpretation and promotional capabilities, support integrated currency pools, and optimize business processes [9]. - There is a focus on diversifying support for global investment and financing, expanding foreign exchange risk management services, and improving digital service levels through new technologies [9].

党的二十大提出"推进国有企业、金融企业在完善公司治理中加强党的领导"，为国有金融企业在复杂多变 的经济形势中坚持正确的公司治理方向提供了根本遵循。作为资本市场重要参与主体，在重大历史机遇 期，如何通过发挥董事会战略引领作用，引领公司树立新发展理念，融入新发展格局，有效防范化解潜在 风险等，是证券行业面临的全新课题。 近年来，兴业证券董事会通过坚持党建引领筑牢政治根基，谋定经营战略夯实发展根基，贯彻金融为民担起国 企使命，构建全面风险管理体系提升保障水平等举措，引领公司向"一流证券金融集团"战略目标稳步前行，不 断交出国有金融企业治理"兴证答卷"，为行业发展提供了"兴证样本"。 坚持党的领导，完善治理体系 习近平总书记强调，党政军民学，东西南北中，党是领导一切的。国有企业是党领导的国家治理体系的重要组 成部分，理所当然要坚持党的领导。坚持党的领导、加强党的建设，是我国国有企业的光荣传统，是国有企业 的"根"和"魂"，是我国国有企业的独特优势。 兴业证券作为国有金融企业，始终将党的领导融入公司治理的各环节，始终坚持由党委把方向、管大局、保落 实，确保公司治理的正确方向。在实践中，公司通过完善公司治理顶层设计，将党 ...

为进一步发挥期货市场服务实体经济功能，引导国有企业、上市公司合理利用期货市场管理风险，5月8 日，郑商所联合辽宁证监局、沈阳市委金融办、沈阳市国资委共同举办了沈阳市国有企业与上市公司风 险管理培训班。 上述相关负责人还表示，国有企业与上市公司是区域经济的"顶梁柱"，在风险管理体系建设中应主动担 当、率先垂范。一是树牢"风险中性"理念，摒弃套保"盈亏考核"惯性思维，建立与战略目标相匹配的衍 生品管理制度；二是加强跨部门协作，财务、风控、业务团队需形成合力，杜绝"单打独斗"式套保；三 是强化合规底线意识，严守套期保值会计处理要求，杜绝投机交易和信息披露违规。 沈阳工业基础雄厚、企业数量众多，产业体系与郑商所PTA、PX、尿素、花生、白糖等期货品种密切 相关，并相继发布了《关于促进大连区域性金融中心高质量发展的若干政策措施》等政策文件，提 出"鼓励国有企业深化内部经营方式改革，合理运用期货等风险管理工具对冲风险""促进大宗商品产业 链协同发展"。 郑商所相关负责人表示，郑商所高度重视发挥期货力量，服务地区经济高质量发展。一是将辽宁设置为 PTA、PX、瓶片、白糖、尿素、花生等期货交割区域，便利企业套期保值。二是与恒 ...

铁合金产业风险管理日报 source： 南华研究 铁合金套保 | 行为导 | | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | 口 | | | 向 | | | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心铁合金 | | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空铁合 | SF2509、SM | 卖出 | 15% | SF:6200-6250、SM: | | 理 | | 下跌 | | 金期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | 2509 | | | 6400-6500 | | 采购管 | 采购常备库存偏低，希望根据 | | 空 | 为了防止铁合金上涨而抬升采购成本，可以在目前阶段买入铁 | SF2509、SM | 买入 | 25% | SF:5300-5400、SM: | | 理 | 订单情况进行采购 | | | 合金期货，在盘面采购来提前锁定采购成本 | 2509 | | | 5300-5400 | source： ...

油料产业风险管理日报 2025/05/12 周昱宇（投资咨询证号：Z0019884） 靳晚冬（期货从业证号：F03118199） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 油料价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕：2800-3300 | 20.7% | 68.5% | | 菜粕：2450-2750 | 0.3107 | 0.819 | source： 南华研究 油料套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 口 | | 具 | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 贸易商库存 | 蛋白库存偏高，担心粕类价格下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据在企业库存情况，做空豆粕期货来锁定利 | M250 | 卖出 | 25% | 3300-34 | | 管理 | | | 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | 9 ...