2025 年 9 月 17 日 沥青：随油震荡，窄幅运行 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2510 | 元/吨 | 3,426 | 0.44% | 3,454 | 0.82% | | | BU2511 | 元/吨 | 3,411 | 0.53% | 3,440 | 0.85% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2510 | 手 | 12,611 | (3,611) | 21,222 | (1,636) | | | BU2511 | 手 | 162,489 | (41,821) | 234,581 | (6,096) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 65360 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 ...

尿素：步入震荡格局，日内走势关注现货成交 | | 杨鈜汉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 | | yanghonghan@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | 尿素基本面数据 | | | | | | | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 （元/吨） | 1,686 | 1,683 | 3 | | | | 结算价 （元/吨） | 1,691 | 1,679 | 1 2 | | | | 成交量 （手） | 129,472 | 166,237 | -36765 | | （01合约） | | 持仓量 （手） | 277,334 | 284,978 | -7644 | | | | 仓单数量 （吨） | 8,279 | 8,613 | -334 | | | | （万元） 成交额 | 437,832 | 558,324 | -120492 | | | | 山东地区基差 | -36 | -43 | 7 | | 基 | 差 | 丰 ...

Core Viewpoint - High Energy Environment (603588) is planning to engage in hedging and futures trading to mitigate risks associated with metal price fluctuations, with a maximum margin of 40 million yuan for hedging and 10 million yuan for futures trading [3][4]. Group 1: Trading Information - As of September 16, 2025, High Energy Environment's stock closed at 6.84 yuan, up 1.48%, with a turnover rate of 2.6%, trading volume of 396,500 shares, and a transaction value of 269 million yuan [1]. - On the same day, the net outflow of main funds was 16.916 million yuan, accounting for 6.29% of the total transaction value, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 11.6033 million yuan, representing 4.32% of the total transaction value [2][4]. Group 2: Company Announcements - High Energy Environment plans to hold its fourth extraordinary general meeting on September 24, 2025, to review proposals related to its hedging and derivatives trading business for the 2025 fiscal year [3]. - The company aims to use its own funds for hedging activities to counteract the significant price volatility of metals recovered from hazardous waste disposal projects, with trading instruments including copper, nickel, lead, gold, silver, and palladium across various exchanges [3].

Group 1: Futures Hedging Business Status - In 2024, 1,503 non-financial A-share listed companies have announced futures hedging business, an increase of 192 companies compared to 2023, with an overall participation rate of 28.6% [3] - The participation in futures and derivatives markets shows stronger hedging orientation, increased demand for exchange rate risk hedging, and a rise in the use of swap and option tools [3] - 189 companies have newly entered or plan to enter the hedging business to mitigate risks such as raw material price risk, product sales price risk, inventory risk, and exchange rate risk [3] Group 2: Types of Futures Hedging Business - Companies engaged in hedging are primarily concentrated in the basic chemical, electronics, machinery, and new energy sectors, closely related to the diversification of chemical and new energy products in domestic futures exchanges [4] Group 3: Effectiveness of Futures Hedging Business - According to the "China Listed Companies Hedging Annual White Paper (2024)," 1,853 listed companies disclosed their hedging business and profitability in 2023, an increase of 241 companies from the previous year [5] - The top ten companies in terms of hedging profitability include Jinlongyu, Xin'ao Co., Wuchan Zhongda, Xiamen Guomao, Jianfa Co., Luxshare Precision, Daodaoquan, Jingliang Holdings, China Resources Materials, and Poly Development [5] Group 4: New Demands for Futures Hedging Business - Market participants believe that futures companies should enhance their professional capabilities and service levels to meet the diverse needs of listed companies, including customized risk management solutions and comprehensive financial services [6] Group 5: Progress in Value Management - The concept of value management has evolved over nearly 20 years since its introduction in 2005, with increasing regulation and standardization in practice [7] - Recent policies emphasize the integration of value management into the performance assessment of central enterprise leaders [7][8] Group 6: Value Management Goals and Tools - Central enterprises aim to enhance the quality of listed companies and improve core competitiveness through value management [9] - Tools for value management include mergers and acquisitions, market reforms, information disclosure, investor relations management, and stock buybacks [10] Group 7: Innovations in Value Management Practice - The release of the "Listed Company Supervision Guideline No. 10 - Value Management" has made value management a mandatory practice for listed companies [13] - By February 2025, over 180 listed companies had established institutional frameworks for value management [13] Group 8: Case Studies in Value Management - The merger of China Shipbuilding and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation is a notable example of value management through mergers and acquisitions, resulting in significant increases in market capitalization [19][21] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has consistently increased its market value through share buybacks and dividends, reflecting strong investor confidence [22][23] Group 9: Future Challenges and Opportunities - There is a growing need for customized risk management solutions and comprehensive financial services in futures hedging, particularly for central enterprises [32] - The recognition of futures tools' functions is evolving, with an emphasis on resource allocation and risk management in value management practices [30][31]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; For inter - period, after the restart of the main PDH, pay attention to the PL01 - 02 short - spread strategy when the spread is high; For inter - variety, none [3] Core Viewpoints - On the supply side, the restart of two PDH units in Wanhua Penglai and Hebei Haiwei has increased the supply, weakening the supply - side support and causing the spot price of propylene to decline. Some units are still under maintenance. On the demand side, the profits of propylene downstream have been significantly compressed, and the overall operating rate has decreased month - on - month. Some downstream products have reduced their purchasing enthusiasm due to cost pressure, which may suppress the upward space of propylene. On the cost side, the geopolitical situation is still volatile, oil prices have rebounded, and the price of external propane has continued to strengthen, boosting market sentiment and causing the propylene futures to fluctuate higher [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The main contract closing price of propylene is 6442 yuan/ton (+22), the East China basis is 58 yuan/ton (-97), and the North China basis is 173 yuan/ton (-107) [1] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - The propylene operating rate is 73% (-2%), the China CFR propylene - Japan CFR naphtha is 207 US dollars/ton (+11), and the propylene CFR - 1.2 propane CFR is 95 US dollars/ton (+13) [1] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The import profit is - 279 yuan/ton (-70) [1] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - PP powder operating rate is 33% (-4.04%), production profit is - 215 yuan/ton (+85); Epoxy propane operating rate is 74% (+0%), production profit is - 534 yuan/ton (+49); N - butanol operating rate is 87% (+1%), production profit is - 113 yuan/ton (+53); Octanol operating rate is 96% (+1%), production profit is 65 yuan/ton (+61); Acrylic acid operating rate is 74% (+5%), production profit is 485 yuan/ton (+153); Acrylonitrile operating rate is 72% (-1%), production profit is - 539 yuan/ton (+111); Phenol - acetone operating rate is 69% (-6%), production profit is - 272 yuan/ton (+25) [1] 5. Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory is 31710 tons (-5320) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the soda ash industry has not been effectively improved [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plant maintenance is less, supply is at a high level; downstream float glass daily melting volume is stable, photovoltaic daily melting volume continues to decline, terminal demand is general, and soda ash factory inventory is at a historically high level for the same period; bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,308 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 108 yuan, and the futures price is at a premium to the spot price; bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash factory inventory is 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 1.35% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average; bearish [2][35]. - **Disk**: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; neutral [2]. - **Main position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. 2. Influence Factors Summary - **Positive factors**: The peak maintenance period within the year is approaching, and production is expected to decline [3]. - **Negative factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - launch plans this year, with the industry output at a historically high level for the same period; the production of photovoltaic glass, a downstream product of heavy - quality soda ash, has decreased, and the demand for soda ash has weakened; the positive sentiment of macro - policies has subsided [4]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market | Indicator | Previous Value | Current Value | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract closing price (yuan/ton) | 1,290 | 1,308 | 1.40% | | Heavy - quality soda ash: Shahe low - end price (yuan/ton) | 1,200 | 1,200 | 0.00% | | Main basis (yuan/ton) | - 90 | - 108 | 20.00% | [6] 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,200 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [11]. - **Production profit**: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 96.30 yuan/ton, and that using the East China combined - production process is - 92.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historically low level [14]. - **Operating rate, production capacity and output**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 87.29%. The weekly output of soda ash is 761,100 tons, of which heavy - quality soda ash is 421,700 tons, and the output is at a historical high [17][19]. - **Production capacity changes**: In 2023, the newly - added production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned newly - added production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual launch of 1 million tons [20]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Sales - to - production ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 103.23% [23]. - **Downstream demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 160,200 tons, and the operating rate is 76.01% and stable; the price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the in - production daily melting volume continues a significant downward trend [26][32]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national soda ash factory inventory is 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 1.35% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [35]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Effective Capacity (10,000 tons) | Output (10,000 tons) | Operating Rate | Import (10,000 tons) | Export (10,000 tons) | Net Import (10,000 tons) | Apparent Supply (10,000 tons) | Total Demand (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Difference (10,000 tons) | Capacity Growth Rate | Output Growth Rate | Apparent Supply Growth Rate | Total Demand Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 3035 | 2715 | 89.46% | 14 | 152 | - 138 | 2577 | 2517 | 60 | 2.20% | 5.10% | 7.40% | 4.60% | | 2018 | 3067 | 2583 | 83.57% | 29 | 138 | - 109 | 2474 | 2523 | - 49 | 1.85% | - 4.86% | - 4.00% | 0.24% | | 2019 | 3247 | 2804 | 86.36% | 19 | 144 | - 125 | 2679 | 2631 | 48 | 5.05% | 8.56% | 8.29% | 4.28% | | 2020 | 3317 | 2757 | 73.40% | 36 | 138 | - 102 | 2655 | 2607 | 48 | 2.16% | - 1.68% | - 0.90% | - 0.91% | | 2021 | 3288 | 2892 | 71.90% | 23 | 73 | - 50 | 2842 | 2764 | 78 | - 0.87% | 4.90% | 7.04% | 6.02% | | 2022 | 3114 | 2944 | 85.26% | 11 | 206 | - 195 | 2749 | 2913 | - 164 | - 5.29% | 1.80% | - 3.27% | 5.39% | | 2023 | 3342 | 3228 | 87.76% | 82 | 144 | - 62 | 3166 | 3155 | 11 | 7.32% | 9.65% | 15.17% | 8.31% | | 2024E | 3930 | 3650 | 78.20% | 42 | 156 | - 114 | 3536 | 3379 | 157 | 17.59% | 13.07% | 11.69% | 7.10% | [36]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The 2025/26 global cotton supply - demand report is relatively positive for the cotton market as global production and consumption are adjusted upwards while the estimated ending inventory is adjusted downwards. Domestically, the inventory remains low, the market supply is still tight, downstream orders have slightly increased, and spinning mills' operation rate remains low. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 13,885 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price is 19,900 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan [2] - Cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 30,405 lots, down 1,108 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are - 314 lots, down 26 lots [2] - Cotton main contract positions are 498,295 lots, down 8,077 lots; cotton yarn main contract positions are 21,140 lots, down 346 lots [2] - Cotton warehouse receipts are 4,899 sheets, down 118 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 89 sheets, down 1 sheet [2] - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,249 yuan/ton; China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 20,755 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,371 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 21,462 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2] - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) is 14,205 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count) is 22,817 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons [2] - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,506 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 870,000 tons, up 13,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton import volume is 50,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume is 110,000 tons, unchanged [2] - Imported cotton profit is 1,043 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 1.4817 million tons, down 0.7081 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days are 27.67 days, down 0.69 days; grey fabric inventory days are 36.14 days, down 1.1 days [2] - Cloth production is 2.7 billion meters, down 0.079 billion meters; yarn production is 1.9915 million tons, down 0.0735 million tons [2] - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1.5161759 billion US dollars, down 104.955 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1.1604009 billion US dollars, down 444.198 million US dollars [2] 3.6 Option Market - Cotton at - the - money call option implied volatility is 11.03%, down 0.16%; cotton at - the - money put option implied volatility is 11.03%, down 0.16% [2] - Cotton 20 - day historical volatility is 9.38%, up 0.31%; cotton 60 - day historical volatility is 6.99%, up 0.05% [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of September 9, 2025, US cotton futures non - commercial long positions decreased by 301 lots, non - commercial short positions increased by 2,821 lots, and net short positions increased by 3,122 lots [2] - In the 2025/26 US cotton supply - demand outlook for September, production is expected to increase by 10,000 bales to 13.2 million bales, while export, consumption, import and inventory remain unchanged [2] - The global cotton supply - demand report in September shows that the 2025/26 global cotton production forecast is 25.622 million tons, up 231,000 tons; global consumption is up 183,000 tons to 25.872 million tons; global ending inventory is down 168,000 tons to 15.924 million tons [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article provides an analysis of key futures market products, highlighting bullish and bearish opportunities, liquidity changes, and potential trading strategies based on market conditions [2][3][4]. Group 1: Key Bullish and Bearish Products Overview - Bullish Products: - CSI 500 Futures (IC.CFE): Strong bullish trend with an annualized rolling return of 6.07% [2] - CSI 1000 Futures (IM.CFE): Strong bullish trend with an annualized rolling return of 9.57% [2] - Iron Ore (I.DCE): High volatility with an upward trend, annualized return of 7.18% [2] - Hot Rolled Coil (HC.SHIF): Recently turned strong, annualized return of 0.19% [2] - Palm Oil (P.DCE): Clear upward trend with an annualized return of 7.86% [2] - Bearish Products: - 2-Year Treasury Bonds (TS.CFE): Significant upward pressure on interest rates, annualized return of -0.26% [2] - 10-Year Treasury Bonds (T.CFE): Significant upward pressure on interest rates, annualized return of -0.02% [2] - 30-Year Treasury Bonds (TL.CFE): Upward pressure on interest rates, annualized return of 0.52% [2] - Glass (FG.CZC): Weak fundamentals with a bearish continuation, annualized return of -7.65% [2] - Industrial Silicon (SI.GFE): Overcapacity leading to price pressure, annualized return of -7.54% [2] Group 2: Volume and Liquidity Changes - High Liquidity Products: - CSI 300 (IF.CFE), SSE 50 (IH.CFE), Copper (CU.SHF), Crude Oil (SC.INE) exhibit high liquidity [3] - Products with Significant Volume Increase: - Shipping Index (EC.INE): High volatility and active volume [3] - Iron Ore (I.DCE): Increased open interest and high capital attention [3] - Products with Volume Decrease: - Red Dates (CJ.CZC), Peanuts (PK.CZC): Low trading activity and poor liquidity [3] Group 3: Trading Opportunities - Bullish Opportunities: - IC/IM: Strong performance in small-cap indices, recommended to buy on dips [4] - Palm Oil (P): Tight supply-demand dynamics with technical breakout potential [4] - Hot Rolled Coil (HC): Supported by infrastructure expectations, short-term rebound anticipated [4] - Bearish Opportunities: - Treasury Bonds (TS/T/TL): Tight monetary policy leading to upward pressure on interest rates [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market focus has shifted to verifying the actual downstream demand. The implementation of the "anti - involution" policy may cause certain disturbances to the market. There are concerns that the future demand recovery may fall short of expectations due to the ongoing bottom - building process in the real estate sector [3]. - For steel products, the demand for rebar recovers slowly while that for hot - rolled coils recovers quickly. For iron ore, the supply is abundant with high global shipments, and the port inventory shows signs of stabilizing [3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and Demand**: Rebar production has decreased for two consecutive weeks, factory inventory has changed from increasing to decreasing, apparent demand has decreased for two consecutive weeks, and social inventory has increased for nine consecutive weeks. The total output of the five major steel products decreased by 3.4 tons week - on - week, factory inventory decreased by 3.5 tons, social inventory increased by 17.4 tons, and the total inventory increased by 13.9 tons. The apparent demand increased by 15.5 tons week - on - week, with the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increasing by 20.8 tons [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the upper 10 - day moving average of rebar exerts significant pressure. Hot - rolled coils are relatively stronger than rebar, supported by the 60 - day moving average but facing some pressure from the middle track of the Bollinger Bands [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions and take profits at low prices. Adopt a low - level oscillation strategy [3]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: Recently, the profitability of sample steel mills has declined due to the sharp increase in coke prices. After the military parade, the molten iron output of steel mills has returned to the pre - parade level. The global iron ore shipments are at a high level, and the future arrival volume is expected to rise. The port inventory shows signs of stabilizing [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: After the 01 contract broke through upwards, it pulled back. Whether it is a real breakthrough remains to be seen [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude. If the upward breakthrough is proven to be false, consider short - selling [5]. 3.3. Industry News - Shanxi Coking Coal announced that Shuiyu Coal Mine resumed production on September 12, with an expected impact on raw coal output of about 180,000 tons due to a 15 - day shutdown [8]. - The inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises in China increased by 5.08% week - on - week to 69,940 tons, reaching the highest level in the past five weeks. The inventory of 63 independent ferromanganese enterprises reached a seven - week high, increasing by 6,300 tons to 166,800 tons [8]. - The second round of coke price cuts has started. Tangshan and Xingtai steel mills plan to cut the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on September 15, 2025 [8]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased by 3.43 percentage points week - on - week to 83.83%, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate increased by 4.39 percentage points to 90.18%, the steel mill profitability rate decreased by 0.87 percentage points to 60.17%, and the daily average molten iron output increased by 11.71 tons to 240.55 tons [8]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports increased by 24.15 tons to 13,849.47 tons, and the daily average port clearance volume increased by 13.50 tons to 331.28 tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports increased by 30.40 tons to 14,456.12 tons, and the daily average port clearance volume increased by 14.06 tons to 344.39 tons [9]. - In early September, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities increased by 320,000 tons to 9.2 million tons, a 4.2% increase. Compared with the beginning of the year, it increased by 2.61 million tons (39.6%), and compared with the same period last year, it increased by 360,000 tons (4.1%) [9]. - The total inventory in cities this week was 9.3918 million tons, a 2.25% increase from last week [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on LPG is "oscillating", indicating a neutral stance in the short - term [4]. Report's Core View - The LPG market shows a situation of "weak oil and strong gas". PG prices are firm due to freight and capital factors. The supply - demand contradiction of propylene in the intermediate link is alleviated, and the terminal PP demand is saturated, resulting in continuous and substantial losses in PDH profits. In the short - term, PG prices are expected to oscillate strongly, with a relatively low current valuation. Attention should be paid to the flow of warehouse receipts and geopolitical risks [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The main contract of LPG futures fluctuated and rose, with a range of 4360 - 4470 yuan/ton. The spot price trend was weaker than the futures, and the basis weakened. International crude oil prices first fell and then rose, and the trend of PG futures was basically the same as that of crude oil. International LPG prices increased, but domestic spot prices showed both increases and decreases. Chemical demand declined significantly, and the profits of multiple chemical plants continued to be in the red. The internal valuation of futures prices was neutral. The weekly average basis was 37 yuan/ton in East China, 120 yuan/ton in South China, and 30 yuan/ton in Shandong, with the lowest deliverable standard being in Shandong [7]. 2. Influencing Factors Supply - Last week, the total commercial volume of LPG was about 53.74 million tons, including 20.52 million tons of civil gas, 21.04 million tons of industrial gas, and 17.89 million tons of ether - after carbon four. The arrival volume of LPG last week was 65 million tons. With the resumption of some devices in East China and Shandong last week, the supply increased. A refinery in Shandong plans to conduct maintenance this week, and it is expected that the domestic commercial volume may decline [4]. Demand - The combustion demand is gradually coming to an end, and the traditional peak - season logic is weakening, but the price of civil gas remains firm in the short - term. In the carbon - four deep - processing sector, affected by new - energy substitution, gasoline demand has weakened. The profit of MTBE is inverted, but the operating rate is at a high level. The profit of alkylated gasoline has changed from profit to loss, and the loss of isobutane dehydrogenation profit is relatively deep. The ether - after market may decline and stabilize. In the carbon - three deep - processing sector, the utilization rate of PDH production capacity is relatively stable, and the operating rate remains at a medium - to - high level. The price of propylene in the intermediate link has declined, and the terminal PP demand is saturated. There are continuous losses from the PDH device to the propylene and PP links [4]. Inventory - Last week, the factory inventory of LPG was 17.91 million tons, and the port inventory was 318.65 million tons. The domestic LPG inventory continued to increase. Although the trading and transportation capacity resumed after the end of large - scale domestic events, the inventory pressure in some northern regions was gradually relieved. However, in other regions, due to increased supply and weak demand, the shipment volume decreased to varying degrees, and the refinery storage capacity utilization rate continued to rise. At the ports, the number of incoming ships decreased slightly, but the unloading volume was more than the arrival volume, with little change compared to last week. Coupled with the downward trend of overall chemical demand, the port inventory increased slightly [4]. Basis and Position - The weekly average basis was a certain value in East China, South China, and Shandong. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts increased by 6, and the lowest deliverable area was Shandong [4]. Chemical Downstream - The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were 70.49%, 55.81%, and 46.17% respectively. The profits of PDH to propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong were - 52 yuan/ton, - 291 yuan/ton, and - 180.50 yuan/ton respectively [4]. Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was a certain value, and the PG continuous - one to continuous - two month spread was a certain value. With the continuous increase in crude oil production, the cost segment was dragged down, and the PG - SC cracking spread continued to strengthen [4]. Other Factors - In October, OPEC+ increased production by 137,000 barrels again, starting the second round of the production - increase cycle to regain market share. The US non - farm payrolls data in August was lower than market expectations, with an increase in the number of unemployed, a month - on - month decline in PPI and CPI, and an enhanced expectation of economic slowdown and interest - rate cuts. The geopolitical situations in Russia - Ukraine, US - Venezuela, and the Middle East still tend to be tense, and the war may further escalate [4]. 3. Trading Strategy - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see temporarily. For arbitrage, the strategies are to go long on PP2601 and short on PL2601, go long on PP2601 and short on PG2601, and go long on PG2510 and short on SC2510 [4].