此前，美联储官员就关税政策对通胀的影响以及是否在12月进一步降息存在分歧，但美国就业市场数据恶化推高了降息预期。 美联储主席鲍威尔在10日的新闻发布会上表示，今年美联储通过三次会议降息75个基点，这一政策立场的进一步正常化将有助于稳定劳动力市场，同时 使通胀在关税影响消退后得以重新朝着2%的目标下降。鲍威尔还指出，美国关税政策导致通胀过高。 据央视新闻12月11日消息，特朗普表示，经济增长并不意味着通货膨胀，即使出现通货膨胀也没关系，可以减缓通货膨胀。特朗普还说，降息幅度太 小，本可以更大。 此前美国总统特朗普多次因美联储货币政策公开批评鲍威尔。今年1月再次就任总统后，特朗普反复批评鲍威尔，指责美联储降息过慢，并威胁解除鲍威 尔职务。美联储能否保持货币政策独立性引发广泛担忧。 谈及美联储主席候选人，特朗普表示，他当日将与候选人之一、前美联储理事凯文·沃什会面。特朗普称，他想要的是一个"在利率问题上诚实的人"，他 希望利率能"低得多"。特朗普表示，美国利率本应是全球最低的。 当地时间12月10日，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到3.50%至3.75%之间。 ...

当地时间10日，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25个基点到3.50%至3.75%之间。这是美联储继今年第三次降息，也是自2024年9月以来第六次降息。 经济前景不确定性较高 就业下行风险增加 10日，美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会在会后发表声明称，现有指标表明美国经济活动一直以温和 的速度扩张，今年就业增长放缓，失业率略有上升，通胀率自年初以来有所上升，目前仍处于较高水 平。经济前景的不确定性依然较高，近几个月就业面临的下行风险有所增加。鉴于风险平衡变化，决定 将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点。 此前，美联储官员就关税政策对通胀的影响以及是否在12月进一步降息存在分歧，但美国就业市场数据 恶化推高了降息预期。 特朗普：降息幅度太小 还能更大 对此，特朗普表示，经济增长并不意味着通货膨胀，即使出现通货膨胀也没关系，可以减缓通货膨胀。 特朗普还说，降息幅度太小，本可以更大。 此前美国总统特朗普多次因美联储货币政策公开批评鲍威尔。今年1月再次就任总统后，特朗普反复批 评鲍威尔，指责美联储降息过慢，并威胁解除鲍威尔职务。美联储能否保持货币政策独立性引发广泛担 忧。 ...

△美联储（资料图） 当地时间10日，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25个基点到3.50%至3.75%之间。这是美联储继今年第三次降息，也是自2024年9月以来第六次降息。 经济前景不确定性较高 就业下行风险增加 △美国劳工部（资料图） 10日，美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会在会后发表声明称，现有指标表明美国经济活动一直以温和 的速度扩张，今年就业增长放缓，失业率略有上升，通胀率自年初以来有所上升，目前仍处于较高水 △10日，美联储主席鲍威尔就降息决定发表讲话 美联储主席鲍威尔在10日的新闻发布会上表示，今年美联储通过三次会议降息75个基点，这一政策立场 的进一步正常化将有助于稳定劳动力市场，同时使通胀在关税影响消退后得以重新朝着2%的目标下 降。鲍威尔还指出，美国关税政策导致通胀过高。 特朗普：降息幅度太小 还能更大 △特朗普（资料图） 平。经济前景的不确定性依然较高，近几个月就业面临的下行风险有所增加。鉴于风险平衡变化，决定 将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点。 此前，美联储官员就关税政策对通胀的影响以及是否在12月进一步降息存在分歧，但美国就业市场数据 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 3.50% - 3.75%, aligning with market expectations. This marks the third rate cut of the year, totaling a 75 basis point reduction [1][3]. Group 1: Rate Cut Details - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates was not unanimously supported, with three members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voting against the cut. This is the first time in six years that three dissenting votes have occurred [5]. - The FOMC's statement indicated that the threshold for further rate cuts has increased, and future cuts will depend on economic outlook changes [5][9]. Group 2: Economic Projections - The latest dot plot from the Fed shows a median expectation for a 25 basis point cut in both 2026 and 2027, consistent with previous forecasts [6][7]. - The Fed has raised its GDP growth forecast for 2026 by 0.5 percentage points to 2.3%, while inflation is expected to remain above the 2% target until 2028 [7][10]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the announcement and dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, major U.S. stock indices saw significant gains, with the Dow Jones rising by 1.23% [1][9]. - Powell emphasized that the Fed is in a position to adjust policy rates and acknowledged the rising risks in the labor market while maintaining that inflation remains a concern [9][10].

智通财经12月11日讯（编辑 牛占林）美东时间周三，在美联储如期降息25个基点之后，主席鲍威尔发 表了讲话，他表示目前利率水平处于良好位置，可应对经济前景变化，但他未对近期是否会再次降息提 供指引。 鲍威尔指出："值得注意的是，自去年9月以来，我们已累计降息175个基点，其中自今年9月以来就下调 了75个基点。目前，联邦基金利率已位于中性水平的一个大致区间，我们也处于有利位置，可以等待观 察经济的进一步发展。" 他补充道："货币政策并非事先设定好的固定路线，我们将根据每次会议的情况，逐步做出决策。" 在开场白中，鲍威尔强调了政府停摆所带来的影响，他指出，官方经济数据(包括就业、通胀及其他关 键指标)的延迟发布，使得美联储的经济展望变得模糊不清。 鲍威尔表示："自我们10月会议以来，关于通胀的官方数据几乎没有发布。" 但他同时强调，美联储也依赖第三方数据。虽然这些数据的可靠性不及官方统计，但仍确认了美联储对 劳动力市场放缓与通胀上升的预期，鲍威尔称这种组合是 "一种棘手的局面"。 他进一步表示："尽管过去几个月重要的联邦政府数据尚未发布，但现有的公共及私营部门数据表明， 关于就业和通胀的前景判断并未发生变化。" ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a rate cut in December, but the focus of the upcoming meeting will be on future policy guidance and how Chairman Powell balances conflicting signals between hawkish and dovish stances [1][2]. Group 1: Market Expectations - The market anticipates a nearly 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, following unexpected negative ADP employment data and a weaker-than-expected PCE price index [2]. - The internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are significant, with some officials skeptical about continuing rate cuts while inflation remains above the 2% target, potentially leading to an increase in dissenting votes during the meeting [2][4]. Group 2: Economic Forecasts - The quarterly economic projections and the dot plot released during the meeting will be crucial for understanding the Fed's outlook on economic growth, inflation, and unemployment rates through 2026 [2]. - The market currently prices in approximately 52 basis points of rate cuts (around two cuts) by 2026, indicating a cautious approach to future monetary policy [2][8]. Group 3: Balance Sheet Management - Future asset and liability management strategies are expected to be as important as the rate decision itself, with potential plans for the Fed to start purchasing short-term Treasury bills in January 2026 to manage liquidity [3]. Group 4: Policy Dilemmas - The Fed faces a classic policy dilemma with persistent inflation pressures and a cooling job market, leading to increased internal disagreements [4][5]. - Powell's communication during the meeting is anticipated to signal how the Fed will navigate these conflicting goals, with expectations of a "hawkish rate cut" approach [4][6]. Group 5: Future Rate Cuts - Analysts suggest that the pace of rate cuts may slow in the first half of next year, with significant monetary easing potentially not occurring until after June 2026 [7][8]. - The upcoming leadership change at the Fed adds another layer of uncertainty to future monetary policy, with speculation about the next chair's potential dovish leanings [9].

来源：市场资讯 12月10日，贵金属价格今日稳步走高，投资者在本月FOMC会议后即将公布的货币政策决议前主动调整 仓位。NCE平台认为，市场当前的关注核心在于美联储即将发布的政策信号以及会后新闻发布会对2025 年政策路径的指引。随着交易时点临近，市场情绪呈现出明显的前瞻博弈特征，使金银价格维持温和升 势。 高概率降息预期主导市场 并非所有机构都认可贵金属持续走强的逻辑。部分分析师认为，若明年的宽松节奏放缓，贵金属可能面 临阶段性压力。近期衍生品市场对2025年的降息预期已从三次下调至两次，反映市场对进一步宽松的谨 慎态度。若通胀粘性高于预期或经济韧性超出假设，政策可能更趋克制，从而限制贵金属的上行空间。 不过当前金价走势显示，市场定价显然已包含利率之外的多重结构性因素。 期货定价工具显示，本周出现25个基点降息的概率接近确定性，这一点与NCE平台监测到的机构预期方 向基本一致。根据市场数据，当前降息概率约为87%，表明整体共识偏向温和宽松，同时仍保留"鸽中 带鹰"的可能性，即若政策沟通暗示2025年初存在暂停节奏，短期宽松路径可能被重新定价。NCE平台 表示，这种结构性的概率分布也推动了贵金属的前置上涨。 ...

尽管对未来物价上升的普遍预期保持稳定，但美国家庭在十一月对自身财务健康的担忧却显著加深。纽约联邦储备银行十二月八日发布的月度消费者预期调 查揭示了这一矛盾现象。调查指出，受访者对当前财务状况的看法"明显恶化"，对一年后财务状况的展望也"略有下降"。这份在美联储十二月议息会议前夕 发布的报告，为理解消费者心态与经济政策之间的复杂互动提供了关键线索。 与财务层面的悲观情绪形成对比的是，美国劳动力市场的预期出现轻微改善。受访者认为美国失业率在未来一年上升的平均概率下降至百分之四十二点一。 对个人失业的担忧也有所缓解，预计未来十二个月内失去工作的平均概率降至百分之十三点八，为二零二四年十二月以来的最低水平；自愿离职的预期概率 也同步下降。同时，家庭名义收入增长预期中值从十月的百分之二点八微升至二点九。 尽管有这些积极信号，但美国家庭对整体财务的感受并未好转。报告显示，认为自身财务状况比一年前更差的比例显著增加。此外，美国消费者对未来获取 信贷难度的看法恶化，预计未来三个月无法偿付最低债务额的平均概率也上升至百分之十三点七。这些数据共同描绘出一幅图景：即使工作安全感略有增 强，但高昂的生活成本、债务压力以及对信贷环境的 ...

Core Insights - Wall Street banks are preparing for increased year-end pressure in the money market, with analysts expecting that funding pressures may prompt the Federal Reserve to consider measures to rebuild liquidity buffers in the $12.6 trillion market [1] - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate meeting is the first since the central bank halted balance sheet reduction in December, and there is uncertainty regarding the policy direction following this pause [1] - Market participants are increasingly advocating for specific measures to alleviate liquidity pressures, such as restarting direct purchases of securities to bolster reserves in the financial system [1] - Analysts anticipate that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will provide clues about the next steps during the monetary policy meeting concluding on Wednesday [1] - Gennadiy Goldberg, head of U.S. interest rate strategy at TD Securities, suggests that Powell may indicate that the Fed is closely monitoring the front end of the yield curve and may be nearing a point where it must begin increasing reserves [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that retail investors have driven the recent rise in gold prices, shifting gold from a traditional safe-haven asset to a more speculative one [1] - The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) noted that there is evidence of retail investors attempting to profit from the gold price surge, which has amplified this upward trend and deviated from the typical safe-haven behavior [1] - BIS highlighted that it is the first time in at least 50 years that gold and stocks have both entered a "bubble territory" simultaneously, suggesting that after such explosive growth, a sharp adjustment is likely to occur [1] Group 2 - Due to rising bond yields, gold and silver futures prices declined, with December gold futures falling by 0.6% to $4187.20 per ounce, ending a three-day winning streak [2] - December silver futures dropped by 1.1% to $57.779 per ounce, marking the fourth decline in five trading days [2] - The market is pricing in a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, while investors are awaiting further guidance on monetary policy from Powell [2]