G20财长和央行行长会议公报：我们强调加强多边合作以应对现有和新出现的全球经济风险的重要性。 ...

南华期货沥青风险管理日报 2025年7月18日 沥青供需结构有走弱趋势，周度产量同比增加28%，需求同比增长10%，库存结构上厂库累库社库去库，投 机需求走弱，贸易商开始主动降库存，山东华东基差因开工率增加而走弱，裂解价差仍然维持高位；目前看 供应端的增量略超预期，同时需求端仍受降雨影响处于淡季，整体基本面环比转弱，单边上因成本端原油表 现偏强所以绝对价格震荡走势，月差基差裂解均有一定程度走弱。中长期看，需求端将随着8月份南北方施工 条件转好，整体施工进入旺季，25年地方政府化债进度提速，资金方面有所缓解，正值"十四五"收尾阶段，项 目数量上有一定保证，旺季仍然可期。短期需关注下货流通情况，以及山东地区燃料油消费退返政策的具体 细节和真实性。 【利多解读】 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 套保比例（%） 建议入场区间 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心沥青价格 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空 | bu2509 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish outlook on asphalt, suggesting a strategy of buying the spread between asphalt 09 - 12 contracts on dips [1] Core Viewpoint - Due to factors such as the continued recovery of asphalt production, approaching peak season, recent rise in crude oil prices, and the expectation of increased demand, it is recommended to buy the spread between asphalt 09 - 12 contracts on dips [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Supply side: This week, asphalt production rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 32.8% week - on - week, 6.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year, but still at a relatively low level in recent years. In July, domestic asphalt production is expected to reach 2.542 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 144,000 tons (6.0%) and a year - on - year increase of 485,000 tons (23.6%) [1] - Demand side: This week, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends. Road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 25.0% week - on - week, near the lowest level in recent years, only slightly higher than the same period in 2023, constrained by funds and rainfall and high temperatures in the South. National asphalt shipments decreased by 4.67% to 249,000 tons week - on - week, at a moderately low level [1] - Inventory: The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries continued to rise slightly this week but remained at the lowest level in recent years [1] - Geopolitical and market factors: Tensions in the Middle East have eased, but the US has imposed new sanctions on Iran. Global trade war concerns have subsided somewhat, but the threat remains. Crude oil prices have risen recently. As the peak season approaches, it is recommended to buy the spread between asphalt 09 - 12 contracts on dips [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2509 contract rose 0.74% to 3,655 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,629 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,665 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 1,364 to 228,073 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong rose to 3,830 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 09 contract fell to 175 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Sinochem Quanzhou has intermittent production. The asphalt production rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 32.8% week - on - week, 6.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year, but still at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4] - Investment data: From January to May, national highway construction investment decreased by 9.2% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate continued to decline slightly compared to January - April 2025. From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in road transportation was 0.6%, an improvement from - 0.4% in January - May. From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 4.6%, a decline from 5.6% in January - May [4] - Downstream operating rates: As of the week ending July 18, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends. Road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 25.0% week - on - week, near the lowest level in recent years, only slightly higher than the same period in 2023, constrained by funds and rainfall and high temperatures in the South [1][4] - Fiscal policy and social financing: The government has proposed a more proactive fiscal policy. In June 2025, the growth rate of social financing stock increased to 8.9% (previous value 8.7%), with new social financing of 4.2 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 900.8 billion yuan. New government bonds were 1.35 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 507.2 billion yuan, and new loans were 2.36 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 171 billion yuan [4] Inventory - As of the week ending July 18, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased by 0.1 percentage points to 17.0% week - on - week, still at the lowest level in recent years [5]

Group 1: Middle East Geopolitical Risks - The Middle East region has high geopolitical uncertainty, with structural conflicts persisting despite temporary de-escalations[5] - The potential for localized control or conflict in the Strait of Hormuz poses significant risks to global shipping and energy supply[6] - In extreme scenarios, a blockade of the Strait could lead to a supply gap of approximately 12.7% of global oil demand[6] Group 2: Impact on Global Supply Chains - If conflicts escalate, oil and chemical transport through the Strait of Hormuz could decrease by 25% compared to pre-conflict levels[6] - Asian economies, particularly China, India, Japan, and South Korea, face the highest exposure to risks from Middle Eastern energy supplies[7] - The chemical industry will be directly impacted, with disruptions likely to affect downstream sectors such as transportation, pharmaceuticals, and electronics[8] Group 3: China's Response and Strategies - China must diversify its import sources for products heavily reliant on Middle Eastern supplies, particularly in energy and chemicals[8] - Key products at risk include liquefied propane and butane (50.5% reliance), crude oil and asphalt (48.2%), and various chemical compounds (42.4%)[8] - The report suggests enhancing domestic production capabilities and exploring alternative import channels from countries like Canada, Algeria, and Brazil[73]

三是聚焦保险服务运用。保险消费者要充分利用保险机制防范风险。如您希望在汛期人身和财产权益得 到更为全面的保障，可重点关注意外伤害保险、机动车辆保险、家庭财产保险、农业保险和企业财产保 险等保险产品，北京金融监管局组织行业推出的北京普惠家财保能够为汛期家庭财产提供有力保障。在 投保时请注意仔细阅读保险条款，重点关注保障范围和免责条款等内容，以便在理赔时更好维护个人权 益。 合理利用保险救援服务。如您已投保车辆损失保险等相关保险产品，在出行时发生保险事故或遇到车辆 故障不能行驶等情形，可拨打保险公司服务电话寻求专业救援。在等待救援时要注意人身安全。车辆不 能行驶时，可打开双闪提示危险；如遇水位持续上涨或者在桥下遭遇水淹，应立即撤离车辆前往安全处 等待救援。 做好极端天气应急避险。城市内涝发生时，步行外出不要贸然涉水前行，警惕井盖、下水道等，避开路 面涡旋区域；车内应常备安全锤，车辆被淹时，保持冷静自救，并前往高处避险。极端大风天气时，若 必须外出，应尽量远离大树、广告牌、高压线和临时搭建的建筑工棚、围墙等。冰雹天气时，在室外遇 冰雹袭击，要顺风走，并迅速寻找遮拦物。 二是聚焦财产安全守护。保险消费者要做好车辆防护 ...

目前，市场像一个理性的人在等待明确的经济数据，证明关税正在严重损害全球或美国经济。 过去两周，全球金融市场见证了美国政府新一轮关税政策的密集出台。美国总统特朗普相继对数十个经 济体重新调整关税税率，并进一步威胁将对超过150个国家和地区实施10%至15%的关税上调。然而， 这轮新关税在华尔街仅引发了轻微反应，投资者似乎已对此习以为常。 上海交通大学上海高级金融学院教授、美联储前高级经济学家胡捷则告诉第一财经记者，市场调整往往 需要特定诱因。虽然关税政策曾引发显著波动，但下一轮调整的具体触发因素尚不明朗。目前还难以准 确预判何时会出现真正的"狼来了"时刻，这需要持续观察宏观经济指标和市场情绪的变化。 投资者对关税"头条疲劳" 今年4月，特朗普政府的关税政策引发了市场的剧烈波动。4月2日，特朗普宣布大规模关税计划后，全 球股市应声下跌，主要股指单日市值蒸发约3.1万亿美元，创下疫情以来的最大单日跌幅纪录。其中， 道琼斯工业平均指数下挫近4%，标普500指数下跌4.8%，纳斯达克指数更是重挫近6%。 胡捷表示，二级市场始终存在泡沫现象，区别仅在于泡沫程度的不同。当泡沫积累到临界点时，往往需 要一个导火索来触发调整。 ...

「2025.7.18」 瑞达期货研究院 宏观市场周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 作者：廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、本周小结及下周 配置建议 2、重要新闻及事件 3、本周国内外经济 数据 4、下周重要经济指 标及经济大事 「本周小结及下周配置建议」 | 股票 | | 债券 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪深 300 +1.09% | | 10 年国债到期收益率-0.02%/本周变动-0.23BP | | | 沪深 300 股指期货 +1.08% | | 主力 10 年期国债期货 -0.01% | | | 本周点评：A股主要指数本周集体上涨，除上证指数外 | | 本周点评：本周国债期货短强长弱，TS、TF主力合约上 | | | 均涨超1%。四期指亦集体上涨，中小盘股强于大盘蓝 | | 涨0.02%、0.00%，T、TL主力合约分别下跌0.04%、 | | | 筹股。本周国内大量重要数据公布，周一上半年贸易数 | | 0.12%。近期权益市场持续走强压制债市情绪，股债跷 | | | ...

报告发布日期 2025 年 07 月 18 日 | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 | | --- | --- | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860520010001 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 王仲尧 | 021-63325888*3267 | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | 彭楚榕 | pengchurong@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524080005 | | 戴思崴 | daisiwei@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860525040001 | 东方战略观察：伊以冲突走向缓和，全球 风险偏好提升 2025-06-28 东方战略周观察：伊以地缘冲 ...

二、对外投资暨关联交易进展情况 证券代码：603031 证券简称：安孚科技 公告编号：2025-056 安徽安孚电池科技股份有限公司 关于对外投资暨关联交易进展的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、对外投资暨关联交易概述 安徽安孚电池科技股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"、"安孚科技"）于2025 年3月7日召开第五届董事会第九次会议审议通过了《关于对外投资暨关联交易的 议案》，同意公司控股子公司福建南平南孚电池有限公司（以下简称"南孚电池"） 与南平市绿色产业投资基金有限公司（以下简称"南平绿色产业基金"）、高能 时代（广东横琴）新能源科技有限公司（以下简称"高能时代"）签署合资协议， 共同合资设立新型电池中试平台合资公司（以下简称"合资公司"），具体内容 详见公司于2025年3月8日披露的《关于对外投资暨关联交易的公告》 （公告编号： 本次投资合作中，作为福建省南平市政府投资平台的南平绿色产业基金希望 通过本次合作，招商引资高能时代落地南平市，并利用南孚电池在产业化、生产 经营管理、品牌及渠道等方面的优势 ...

Core Viewpoint - International Medical is facing significant financial challenges, with continued losses and high shareholder pledge rates raising concerns about its operational sustainability and debt risks [1][2][10]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to report a net loss of between 160 million to 170 million yuan for the first half of 2025, only slightly improved from a loss of 174 million yuan in the same period last year, indicating persistent operational difficulties [1][2]. - Since 2018, the company's net profit has been negative for seven consecutive years, highlighting ongoing profitability issues [2]. - Revenue for the first quarter of 2025 was 999.7 million yuan, with a net loss of 106 million yuan, reflecting continued pressure on profitability [2]. Asset and Debt Management - As of the end of Q1 2025, the company's asset-liability ratio stood at 67.64%, with interest-bearing liabilities nearing 4.599 billion yuan [6]. - The company has 472 million yuan in cash, which is insufficient to cover 851 million yuan in short-term loans and 861 million yuan in current non-current liabilities [6]. - The company's fixed asset scale has expanded to 7.131 billion yuan, leading to high fixed costs that are not being offset by revenue [4]. Shareholder Pledge Risks - The controlling shareholder's pledge ratio has increased to 27.49%, with 81.45% of their shares pledged, representing 22.39% of the total share capital [1][9]. - Recent announcements indicate that over 886 million shares have had their repurchase deadlines extended, suggesting deep financial strain on the shareholder [8][10]. - The high pledge ratio and upcoming debt maturities create a risk transmission chain that could impact the company's governance and operational stability [10]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company has struggled to convert its large asset base into profitability, with a significant drop in revenue growth from 70.34% in 2023 to 14.99% in Q1 2025 [4]. - The market has re-evaluated the company's value, with its stock price dropping from a peak of 21.66 yuan per share in 2021 to 5.24 yuan per share in July 2023, reflecting declining investor confidence [10].