Macro Strategy - The report emphasizes that expanding consumer demand is more effective than capacity reduction policies in addressing low inflation, as service prices have dropped to historical lows, which is the core issue of the current price cycle [1][10] - If consumption policies are strengthened, service prices could rise by 2 percentage points, leading to a GDP deflator increase from -0.7% to +0.39%, which would be more beneficial than the effects of capacity reduction [1][10] - Historical comparisons indicate that the current price pressure is primarily demand-driven, with the second industry contributing only 48% to the current low inflation, significantly lower than previous years [1][10] Fixed Income Strategy - The report discusses the introduction of buying and selling government bonds as a new monetary policy tool in China, aimed at managing interest rate risks amid a declining yield environment [2][12] - It highlights that the People's Bank of China has primarily focused on buying government bonds to release liquidity, given the current low inflation environment [2][12] - The effectiveness of these operations will depend on the central bank's ability to provide clear forward guidance to shape market expectations [2][12] Company Analysis: Zhengfan Convertible Bonds - Zhengfan Convertible Bonds are expected to list at a price between 115.63 and 128.82 yuan, with a subscription rate of 0.0048% [3][15] - The bonds have a solid debt protection feature, with a conversion premium rate of approximately 25% anticipated on the first day of listing [3][15] - Zhengfan Technology has shown steady revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 34.10% from 2019 to 2023, and a revenue of 38.35 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a 41.78% year-on-year increase [3][15] Company Analysis: Kelun-Botai - Kelun-Botai's revenue for 2024 is projected at 19.3 billion yuan, a 25.5% increase year-on-year, with a gross profit of 12.74 billion yuan, up 67.8% [5][16] - The company is expected to see rapid growth in multiple products as they commercialize, with significant clinical data supporting their efficacy [5][16] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised to 17.8 billion and 35.6 billion yuan, respectively, with an expected revenue of 58.9 billion yuan in 2027 [5][16] Company Analysis: China National Materials - China National Materials reported a total revenue of 461.27 billion yuan for 2024, a 0.7% increase, and a net profit of 29.83 billion yuan, up 2.3% [6][19] - The company has shown resilience in its Q4 performance, with overseas engineering and operation maintenance businesses performing well [6][19] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 4.5 yuan per 10 shares, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [6][19]

李实："提低"是促消费的关键，要创造条件让农村 老人进城养老 记者王珍 3月23日，浙江大学共享与发展研究院院长李实在"中国发展高层论坛2025年年会"间隙接受界面新 闻采访时表示，促进消费，不仅要提高居民的收入，还要有重点、有选择的把提高居民收入更多地放在 提高低收入人群的收入上。 李实说，消费需求不足有两方面的原因，一是收入增长缓慢，二是收入差距过大。 "很多高收入人群，他们虽然有钱，但不愿意消费，因为他们的基本消费都得到满足。另外一部分 低收入人群，他们想消费，但受到钱的限制，不能消费。在这种情况下，如果让这些低收入人群收入能 够更快地增加，这样的话他们就会把增长的收入用于消费，这对于刺激消费应该会起到更大的作 用。"李实说。 他在当天举行的"人口结构变化的挑战与机遇专题研讨会"上提出，要创造一切条件促使农村老年人 到城市去养老。他指出，到城市养老有两方面的好处，一是相对于农村养老，城市养老服务的质量高， 可以提高这些进城农村老人的生活水平和养老质量；二是城市公共服务体系较为健全，养老产业有规模 效益，有助于进城农村老人养老的性价比。 "在农村搞所谓集中养老，政府花了很多的钱，由于养老服务跟不上，一些地 ...

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment returns over the next 6-12 months [11]. Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid growth of social financing in February 2025, driven by proactive fiscal policies, with expectations for continued support [2]. - The consumer sector is anticipated to sustain its momentum due to government policies aimed at boosting consumption, alongside potential foreign investment inflows [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of using broader social financing metrics over traditional loan data to assess the financial system's support for the real economy [5]. - The REITs market showed a mixed performance, with property REITs outperforming other categories, indicating a potential area for investment [4]. - The report suggests that the copper market is tightening due to low inventory levels and stable demand from the power grid, presenting investment opportunities in related companies [18]. Summary by Sections Banking Sector - The report discusses the "three relationships" in credit activity, noting a divergence between credit growth and social financing increase, and contrasting public loan growth with weak retail lending [11]. Consumer Sector - The government’s focus on consumption is expected to catalyze policy support, with thematic investment opportunities emerging, particularly in sectors like service consumption and family planning [3]. Bond Market - The report advises focusing on social financing metrics for a comprehensive view of the financial system's support for the economy, especially during periods of local government debt issuance [5]. REITs - The REITs market experienced fluctuations, with property REITs showing greater resilience and attracting net inflows, suggesting a favorable investment environment [4]. Copper Industry - Domestic copper concentrate inventory has reached a new low, indicating a tightening supply situation, which could lead to upward pressure on copper prices [18]. Coal Industry - The coal sector is expected to stabilize with long-term contract prices providing support, suggesting a defensive investment approach in this area [19]. Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage index has risen significantly, driven by positive consumption policies and low valuation, indicating potential for continued market enthusiasm [20]. Electric Power Equipment and New Energy - The report highlights the low valuation in the wind power sector and the potential for growth in lithium battery technologies, suggesting a positive investment outlook [21]. Other Sectors - The report provides insights into various sectors, including pharmaceuticals, textiles, and insurance, with specific companies recommended for investment based on their growth potential and market conditions [22][23][30].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the market by more than 5% over the next six months [8]. Core Insights - Recent policies aimed at boosting consumption are expected to accelerate the recovery of the food and beverage sector. The plan includes various measures to enhance consumer spending and improve the overall economic environment [6][3]. - The report highlights specific sectors within the food and beverage industry that are likely to benefit from the recovery, including frozen foods, beer, and dairy products. Recommendations include companies such as Anjuke Foods, Yanjing Beer, Chongqing Beer, and Yili Group [5][6]. Summary by Sections Policy Impact - The recent "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" issued by the central government aims to stimulate domestic demand and enhance consumer confidence through various initiatives, including income support and service quality improvements [3][6]. - The plan encompasses eight major categories and 30 subcategories of implementation details, targeting both urban and rural areas to address consumption constraints and enhance the overall consumer environment [6]. Sector Recommendations - The report suggests that the recovery in the restaurant sector will positively impact the supply chain for food products, particularly frozen foods and beverages [5][6]. - The snack retail chain sector is entering a new phase of competition, with opportunities for growth in discount channels and broader product categories. Companies like Three Squirrels and Wancheng Group are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [5]. - In the dairy sector, improvements in supply and demand dynamics are expected to lead to profitability recovery for leading dairy companies, with a focus on national and regional players [5][6].

文/《清华金融评论》 周茗一 2 0 25年全国两会期间，促消费成为重要议题之一，政策力度不断加大， 以旧换新政策的加力扩围、财政政策的积极支持、消费券和补贴的发放、 优化消费环境和提升消费能力、培育新的消费增长点、完善物流和回收体 系。近期，国家发改委，财政部，商务部，中国人民银行等多部门密集表 态促消费。在此背景下，《清华金融评论》2025年第4期拟以 "大力提振 消费，全方位扩大国内需求" 为主题策划一期封面专题，探讨如何进一步 凝聚共识、拓宽思路，把经济政策的着力点更多转向惠民生、促消费，以 更 大 力 度 和 更 精 准 措 施 提振 消 费 ， 持续 增强 消 费对 经 济 发 展 的 基 础 性 作 用。 国家发展改革委 ：《提振消费专项行动方案》将公布实施 对于今年5%左右的经济增长目标，国家发展改革委主任郑栅洁表示，今年5%左右的经济增长预期目 标，是党中央、国务院经过综合研判、科学论证、系统平衡，稳慎提出的。综合分析，我国制度有优 势、市场有潜力、企业有活力，更重要的是，有直面风险挑战的勇气、有解决问题的底气，今年实现 5%左右的目标有基础、有支撑、有保障。 郑栅洁称，近期，多部门联合制定 ...

Economic Goals - The economic growth target for 2025 is set at around 5%, aimed at stabilizing employment, preventing risks, and improving livelihoods[4] - The urban surveyed unemployment rate is targeted at approximately 5.5%, reflecting the need for increased employment stability[4] - The consumer price index (CPI) growth is aimed at around 2%, indicating a focus on maintaining price stability[4] Inflation and Policy Adjustments - The CPI target has been lowered from 3% to 2%, marking the first time since 2004 that the target is below 3%[7] - This adjustment is seen as a more pragmatic approach to address inflationary pressures, with a stronger emphasis on realistic targets[8] - The government acknowledges significant downward pressure on prices, which could lead to higher real interest rates and increased debt burdens[8] Investment and Fiscal Policy - There is a new focus on "investing in people" to drive economic cycles, emphasizing public service improvements and job creation[11] - Local government finances are expected to expand again, with a focus on supporting new investment opportunities while managing debt risks[13] - The issuance of special bonds is planned, with a total of 1.8 trillion yuan, including 1.3 trillion yuan for long-term bonds and 500 billion yuan for bank capital[16] Real Estate and Consumption - Real estate policies will shift towards "protecting the main body," focusing on preventing corporate debt defaults while stabilizing the market[14] - Promoting consumption remains a key strategy, with a special bond allocation of 300 billion yuan aimed at boosting consumer spending through trade-in programs[16] - The government aims to enhance domestic demand, particularly in consumption, to serve as a primary driver of economic growth[15] Financial Market Stability - There is an emphasis on optimizing and innovating structural monetary policy tools to support healthy development in the real estate and stock markets[19] - The government plans to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, with potential adjustments to interest rates and reserve requirements as needed[17]

Core Viewpoint - The government work report emphasizes the importance of boosting consumption as a primary task for 2025, highlighting the need for policies that stimulate domestic demand and enhance consumer spending [1][10]. Group 1: Economic Indicators and Policies - The report indicates that the consumer price index remains stable, and the commercial service industry’s added value has grown by over 10%, reflecting significant growth in overall consumer spending [1]. - In 2024, various consumption promotion policies are expected to support a growth rate of over 12% in equipment updates and home appliance sales [1]. - The government plans to implement a special action to boost consumption, including measures to enhance consumer capacity, increase quality supply, and improve the consumption environment [4]. Group 2: Income and Employment - The report stresses the need to promote income growth through multiple channels, particularly for middle and low-income groups, and to improve the normal growth mechanism of workers' wages [5] [11]. - The government aims to address structural contradictions in consumption supply and emphasizes the importance of leading and creating demand [11]. Group 3: Specific Initiatives - A special long-term bond of 300 billion yuan will be allocated to support the replacement of old consumer goods [6][3]. - The "old-for-new" policy has effectively driven sales, with related product sales exceeding 1 trillion yuan as of December 2024, particularly boosting the home appliance sector [7]. - The report suggests expanding the participation of small and medium-sized businesses in rural areas in the "old-for-new" program to ensure accessibility for consumers in remote areas [7]. Group 4: Service Sector and Consumption Environment - The government plans to expand the supply of diverse services such as health, elderly care, childcare, and housekeeping by relaxing entry restrictions and optimizing regulations [8]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in the nutrition, health, and beauty sectors, providing opportunities for foreign enterprises in China [8]. - Measures will be taken to enhance consumer rights protection and create a safe consumption environment [11].

Core Viewpoints - The economic growth target for this year is set at around 5%, consistent with last year's target, but reflects a more conservative outlook due to increasingly complex external conditions [1][4] - The fiscal deficit is projected to increase to 4%, surpassing the previous threshold of 3%, indicating a stronger push for fiscal stimulus [2][6] - The focus on expanding domestic demand has been elevated as a primary task, with significant emphasis on promoting consumption through various measures [3][10] Economic Growth Targets - The government has set the economic growth target at approximately 5%, maintaining the same level as last year, but with a more cautious approach due to external challenges [1][4] - The consumer price index target has been adjusted to around 2%, down from 3%, reflecting a more realistic assessment while increasing its binding force [1][4] - The urgency to reduce energy consumption per unit of GDP has intensified, with a target reduction of 13.5% set in the 14th Five-Year Plan, impacting high-energy-consuming industries like steel and chemicals [1][4] Central Policy Adjustments - The fiscal budget deficit is set at 4%, with a planned scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from last year's budget [2][6] - Local government special bonds are projected to reach 4.4 trillion yuan, a 13% increase from last year, indicating a significant rise in fiscal capacity [2][6] - The monetary policy is characterized as "moderately loose," with potential for timely reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates [7] Key Focus Areas - Expanding domestic demand is prioritized, with a focus on enhancing consumption capabilities and promoting supply release [3][10] - The government plans to allocate 300 billion yuan in special bonds to support the consumption of new goods through trade-in programs, doubling last year's funding [3][10] - The report emphasizes a higher technological content in industrial policies, with specific support for sectors such as commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, and artificial intelligence [11] Real Estate Regulation - The real estate regulation continues with a strategy of "controlling new supply and managing existing stock," aiming to revitalize the market [12][13] - The report suggests integrating eligible rural migrant workers into the housing security system, which could stimulate demand in the real estate market [13] Support for Childbirth - The introduction of childcare subsidies at the national level acknowledges the effectiveness of local policies and indicates potential increases in central financial support for childbirth [13]

Group 1: Core Views - The focus on technological innovation and education reform is seen as a significant opportunity for development in response to societal needs arising from major technological revolutions and industrial changes [2][4] - The government aims to create a unified and open transportation market to reduce logistics costs, with a target of lowering national logistics costs by approximately 400 billion yuan in 2024, including a reduction of 280 billion yuan in transportation costs [3] - The financial regulatory authority emphasizes the need to address financing difficulties for private and small enterprises through a dual approach of increasing credit supply and reducing financing costs [9][11] Group 2: Transportation and Logistics - The Ministry of Transport has implemented a plan to enhance the efficiency and quality of transportation logistics, achieving a significant reduction in logistics costs over the past year [3] - The recent Spring Festival saw a record 9.02 billion cross-regional passenger movements, reflecting the vitality of the transportation sector [3] Group 3: Education Reform - The Ministry of Education plans to optimize educational resource allocation in response to demographic changes, focusing on integrating education with industry needs and enhancing talent cultivation in key areas such as mathematics and computer science [4][6] - A three-year action plan for building a strong education system will be implemented to promote comprehensive reforms in higher education [4] Group 4: Market Regulation - The State Administration for Market Regulation is committed to creating a favorable business environment by addressing issues such as arbitrary fees and penalties, with a focus on a "first violation not punished" policy for minor infractions [7][8] - A dynamic monitoring mechanism will be established to better align educational admissions with national needs [5] Group 5: Financial Support for Enterprises - The financial regulatory authority has established mechanisms to support financing for real estate and small enterprises, with over 6 trillion yuan in loans approved for housing projects [10] - The focus will be on increasing credit availability for private enterprises while reducing intermediary costs to enhance overall financing efficiency [11] Group 6: Consumer and Technological Innovation - The financial regulatory authority aims to boost consumption and support technological innovation by optimizing financial resource allocation and developing tailored financial products for new consumption scenarios [12][13] - Four pilot projects will be initiated to enhance long-term investments in technology and support the integration of financial assets with technological advancements [14]

Economic Growth - The industrial added value is expected to grow by 5.6% year-on-year in January-February 2025, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from December 2024[8] - Fixed asset investment is projected to increase by 4.9% year-on-year in January-February 2025, up by 1.7 percentage points from the previous period[9] - Social retail sales are anticipated to rise by 5.3% year-on-year in January-February 2025, an increase of 1.6 percentage points compared to earlier[9] Trade and Inflation - Exports are expected to grow by 4.3% year-on-year in January-February 2025, down by 6.4 percentage points from the previous period[12] - Imports are projected to increase by 2.7% year-on-year in January-February 2025, up by 1.7 percentage points from October 2024[37] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is forecasted to decline by 0.5% year-on-year in February 2025, a drop of 1.0 percentage point from the previous period[41] Monetary Policy - New RMB loans are expected to reach 14,800 billion yuan in February 2025, an increase of 300 billion yuan year-on-year[46] - M2 money supply is projected to grow by 7.0% year-on-year by the end of February 2025, remaining stable compared to the previous period[51] - The RMB exchange rate is anticipated to fluctuate between 7.1 and 7.3 in March 2025 due to various external factors[58]