Core Viewpoint - The founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives suggests that it is "completely reasonable" for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by 50 basis points at some point, indicating concerns about the labor market and a potential recession [1] Labor Market Insights - Labor market data indicates that the economy is gradually slipping into a recession, highlighting the need for potential monetary policy adjustments [1]

中美关税战愈演愈烈，尽管特朗普派人频繁接触中方，但却不打算拿出实际诚意谈判。中方自然不会给美国台阶下，"正在评估"4个字就是对中美谈判的态 度。关键时刻，美前财长耶伦看不下去了，出山警告特朗普已经被中国拿捏，继续关税战就是"自杀"行为。耶伦为何突然出面警告？关税战第2个月又将何 去何从呢？ 自特朗普4月2日掀起关税战以来，美国的内部情绪就像失控的航海罗盘。最开始美国人对特朗普的决定充满信心，虽然没有得到国会支持，但美国是全球军 事最强国、最大经济体，这样的体量逼迫中国妥协不成问题。然而美国前财长耶伦却开始泼冷水，她在4月10日接受媒体采访时就公开唱衰特朗普政府，强 调"对等关税"的政策破坏性太大，尤其是对美国工人和普通家庭带来的影响是"毁灭性的"，没有资本会在不确定基础上进行长期投资，很容易引发美国经济 衰退。 毫无疑问，耶伦这是在猛戳特朗普一直不愿意揭开的伤疤，尽管这大概率是来自民主党对特朗普的反击，他们巴不得看特朗普的笑话，但同时不能否认耶伦 说的这些都是事实。在清洁能源技术方面，早在美国"去工业化"的同一时期就开始走下坡路了，美国两党开始刻意压制新能源技术的研发，因为他们的竞选 活动需要这些矿物燃料利益 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported revenue of $333 million, representing an 11% year-over-year growth driven by better-than-expected clinician productivity and total revenue per visit [18][21] - Adjusted EBITDA was $35 million, increasing 25% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA margins at 10.4%, marking the second consecutive quarter of double-digit margins [21][22] - The company achieved positive net income of $700,000 for the first quarter, the first positive net income in its history as a public company [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The clinician base grew by 152 clinicians or 10% year-over-year, totaling 7,535 clinicians [18][21] - Total revenue per visit increased by 1% year-over-year to $159, primarily due to modest payer rate increases [20] - Center margin increased by 16% year-over-year to $110 million, representing 33% of revenue [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted that 71% of visits were virtual, stable from the previous quarter but lower than the same quarter last year [63] - The company has contracts with nearly all major payers in the country, with limited exposure to exchange and managed Medicaid, accounting for about 5% to 10% of total revenue [57] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to enhance its position in outpatient mental healthcare, focusing on increasing demand for mental health services and transitioning from cash pay to insurance [9][10] - The company is implementing a cash bonus incentive program for clinicians based on quality and productivity, replacing the previous stock-based incentive program [12][26] - The company is expanding specialty services, particularly in neuropsych testing and treatment-resistant depression, expecting this segment to grow at a higher rate than the core business [60] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's resilience to economic cycles, suggesting that economic uncertainty could increase demand for mental healthcare services [8][9] - The company maintains its full-year guidance for revenue between $1.4 billion and $1.44 billion, with expectations for continued growth in visit volumes [24][25] - Management acknowledged the potential impact of a recession but emphasized the flexibility of their insurance-based model to navigate economic challenges [40] Other Important Information - The company has made progress in operational execution, including the rollout of a digital patient check-in tool that has improved patient satisfaction and collections [13][51] - The company is evaluating options for enhancing its electronic health record (EHR) capabilities, with a focus on improving clinician and patient experiences [48] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss clinician recruitment and retention? - Management noted that the environment remains competitive for attracting and retaining clinicians, but the company's value proposition continues to resonate, leading to stable turnover and retention rates [31][32] Question: What are the expectations for total revenue per visit? - Management expects total revenue per visit to be sequentially lower in Q2 due to a rate decrease from a single outlier payer, but anticipates growth in the back half of the year driven by rate increases from other payers [34][35] Question: How does the company plan to navigate a potential recession? - Management indicated that the company's hybrid model allows for flexibility in responding to economic changes, potentially increasing demand for services during economic downturns [40] Question: What are the drivers behind the center cost leverage? - Management explained that while center costs are expected to increase due to clinician compensation timing, they anticipate continued operating leverage and improvements in center margins in the future [42][44] Question: Can you provide an update on the EHR rollout? - Management stated that it is early in the EHR discovery process, focusing on improving clinician and patient experiences, but specific costs and timelines are not yet available [48] Question: How will changes in stock compensation affect retention and recruitment? - Management emphasized that the shift to a cash-based incentive program was driven by clinician feedback, aiming to better align with their preferences for quality and access [54] Question: What is the company's exposure to exchange plans? - Management confirmed that they have contracts with major payers, including exchange plans, but currently have limited exposure to them, accounting for about 5% to 10% of total revenue [57] Question: How is the company rolling out specialty services? - Management expressed excitement about expanding specialty services, particularly in neuropsych testing and treatment-resistant depression, expecting this segment to grow significantly [60]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals and Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Daily Report [2] - Report Date: May 7, 2025 [2] - Author: Xu Liang [3] - Reviewer: Tang Yun [3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 3. Core Views Precious Metals - Shanghai Gold (SHFE) showed a high - level oscillating and回调 trend. The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate offset part of the upward transmission effect of international gold prices, and the post - holiday decline in domestic physical consumption demand made SHFE gold weaker than overseas markets. With multiple factors in play, SHFE gold will maintain an oscillating pattern [4]. Copper - Copper prices are affected by macro, sentiment, and expectations. In the short term, the absolute price of copper is difficult to predict, but volatility will remain high [16]. Zinc - Given the supply and demand situation and weak macro data, zinc prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend in the short term [35]. Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is expected to oscillate in the short term. Alumina is likely to continue its weak performance due to an oversupply situation and bearish market sentiment [46]. Nickel - The nickel market remains stable in terms of fundamentals, with no significant changes in logic. The nickel market lacks obvious upward drivers [66]. Tin - Tin prices are expected to continue their narrow - range oscillation in the short term as the impact of macro factors on the fundamentals is not yet evident [80]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium salt prices are falling, and there is a risk of a spiral decline in ore and salt prices. Trade uncertainties may suppress long - term demand [91]. Silicon - With prices in the silicon industry chain falling, downstream polysilicon production cuts are more likely, and the supply side of industrial silicon is also showing signs of adjustment [99]. 4. Content Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Price Performance**: SHFE gold showed high - level oscillation and回调, affected by factors such as the RMB exchange rate and domestic consumption demand [4]. - **Influencing Factors**: The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, post - holiday decline in domestic physical consumption demand, and multiple macro - factors contribute to the current situation of SHFE gold [4]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Copper prices are affected by multiple factors, and short - term volatility remains high. The latest prices of various copper contracts are provided, with daily price changes and percentage changes [16][17]. - **Influencing Factors**: Macro factors (US non - farm employment data and Sino - US tariff issues), market sentiment (disputes between bulls and bears), and policy expectations (upcoming financial policies) all impact copper prices [16]. Zinc - **Price Performance**: Zinc prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend. The latest prices of various zinc contracts and related price differences are presented [35][36]. - **Influencing Factors**: Supply is expected to be loose due to the opening of the import window, and demand is supported by domestic policies but with unclear strength. Weak macro data also affects zinc prices [35]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Price Performance**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate, and alumina is likely to be weak. The latest prices of aluminum and alumina contracts are provided [46][47]. - **Influencing Factors**: For aluminum, macro factors and demand seasonality are key. For alumina, the supply of bauxite, production capacity changes, and market sentiment are important [46]. Nickel - **Price Performance**: The nickel market lacks upward drivers. The latest prices of nickel and stainless - steel contracts and related data are given [66][67]. - **Influencing Factors**: The slow release of nickel ore supply, the continuous decline in nickel - iron prices, and the weak stainless - steel market all contribute to the current situation [66]. Tin - **Price Performance**: Tin prices are in a narrow - range oscillation. The latest prices of tin contracts are provided [80]. - **Influencing Factors**: Uncertainty about Myanmar's复产 and the semiconductor industry cycle affect tin prices [80]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Performance**: Lithium salt prices are falling, and the market is cautious. The latest prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts and related price differences are presented [91]. - **Influencing Factors**: Market sentiment, cost - side changes, and trade uncertainties impact lithium carbonate prices [91]. Silicon - **Price Performance**: The prices of industrial silicon and related products in the silicon industry chain are falling. The latest prices of industrial silicon contracts and spot prices are provided [99][100]. - **Influencing Factors**: Expected production cuts in downstream polysilicon and supply - side adjustments in industrial silicon affect prices [99].

据每日经济新闻报道，美国有线电视新闻网民调机构进行的一项最新民调显示，59%的民众认为美国总统特朗普的政策 恶化了美国经济状况，这一比例较3月份的51%有所上升。调查还发现，美国人对本国经济状况普遍不满，对白宫新贸易 政策缺乏热情。60%的民众称特朗普政策提高了所在社区生活成本，仅12%的民众认为其政策有助于降低物价。此外，仅 有34%的美国人对经济持乐观态度，29%的人感到悲观，37%的人表示担忧。 特朗普（资料图） 曾任美国总统高级经济顾问、现任纽约大学商学院经济学教授的劳伦斯·怀特指出，特朗普政府采取的经济政策违背了基 本经济原则。"各国应专注于最具效率的产业，通过贸易互补优势。关税只会推高成本，削弱福祉、收入与财富。这不仅 未能实现双赢，反而导致多方受损。"在全球供应链高度互联的背景下，业内人士和专家普遍担忧，持续升级的贸易壁垒 将对经济复苏和消费者福利产生长期负面影响。他们呼吁政府采取更加理性、可持续的经济政策以减缓冲击。 贸易战的双刃剑效应。特朗普的"对等关税"政策直接引发了中美贸易战。这场贸易战对美国而言主要导致通胀压力，而 中国则面临就业压力。双方都在通过补贴等政策手段来缓解这些压力，但长期来 ...

Moneta Markets亿汇认为，美联储在5月的政策会议上启动讨论，市场普遍预期此次会议不会降息，而未来会议降息的可能性也较低。根 据摩根大通的分析，美联储官员在货币政策上可能受到两方面因素的制约。 Moneta Markets亿汇认为，尽管市场对滞胀的担忧有所增加，但投资者仍未充分反映经济增长放缓的预期。摩根大通认为："尽管经济衰退 仍有可能避免，但如果真的发生，许多投资者认为市场已经反映了这种风险的观点可能过于乐观。" Moneta Markets亿汇总结称，美联储目前正面临复杂的宏观经济环境，通胀预期上升和经济衰退风险的不确定性使其在货币政策上陷入两 难境地。尽管特朗普呼吁降息，但美联储可能需要在更多数据支持和明确的经济衰退信号出现后，才能采取行动。投资者需密切关注美联 储的政策动态以及经济数据的变化，以评估未来市场的风险。 Moneta Markets亿汇分析称，通胀预期的上升是美联储难以降息的重要原因之一。最新消费者通胀报告显示，3月通胀同比上升2.4%，高 于美联储2%的目标。而密歇根大学编制的一年期通胀预期更是高达6.5%。这一数据表明，市场对未来通胀的担忧正在加剧。 Moneta Mark ...

隔夜，现货黄金强势反弹，日内最高触及3434.80美元，最低触及3323.14美元，最终收报于3431.54美元。今日欧市盘中，黄金大福下跌，日内跌逾55美 元，目前在3378美元附近徘徊。 美国贸易逆差创纪录！ 隔夜，美股全线收跌，截至收盘，道指跌0.95%，报40829点；标普500指数跌0.77%，报5606.91点；纳指跌0.87%，报17689.66点。 当地时间5月6日，美国经济分析局和美国人口普查局公布的数据显示，美国2025年3月国际贸易逆差为1405亿美元，高于2月份的1232亿美元。3月份的出 口额为2785亿美元，进口额为4190亿美元。 由于企业在关税措施生效前增加商品进口，美国3月贸易逆差飙升，关税措施导致美国第一季度GDP环比萎缩。 为安抚市场，美国财政部长贝森特重申可能最早于本周达成贸易协议，并表示，没有任何数据表明美国正处于衰退之中，而且预计第一季度GDP数据将上 调。 贝森特表示，许多国家已经提出了不错的方案，并重申有些协议可能最快本周就会宣布。他还提到，有可能对美国商品的大部分关税进行"实质性削减"， 同时指出近期的数据并未显示经济陷入衰退。 经济数据方面，美国3月贸易逆差 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The April Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 50.4, 0.8 percentage points lower than the previous month, reaching a three - month low; the Caixin China Services PMI also dropped 1.2 percentage points to 50.7, the lowest since Q4 2024 [1] - The global manufacturing PMI in April was 49.1%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for two consecutive months, indicating increased downward pressure on the global economy [1] - "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos said Trump's tariff policies might put the Fed in a lose - lose situation, and the Fed is expected to maintain a wait - and - see stance on interest rate cuts [1] - China's attitude towards the US - China tariff war is clear: ready to fight if necessary and willing to talk [2] - China and the European Parliament have decided to cancel restrictions on mutual exchanges [2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Hot News - The April Caixin China Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI both declined, with the manufacturing PMI at 50.4 and the services PMI at 50.7 [1] - The global manufacturing PMI in April was 49.1%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, in the contraction range for two consecutive months [1] - Trump's tariff policies may pose challenges to the Fed, and the Fed will likely maintain a wait - and - see stance on interest rate cuts [1] - China's attitude towards the US - China tariff war is "fight if necessary, talk if possible", and China and the European Parliament will cancel restrictions on mutual exchanges [2] 3.2 Plate Performance - Key areas to focus on include crude oil, Shanghai gold, asphalt oil, coking coal, and urea [3] - In the night session, the non - metallic building materials sector rose 2.59%, the grain sector 1.77%, and the agricultural and sideline products sector 2.69% [3] 3.3 Plate Capital Occupancy - The capital occupancy ratios of different commodity sectors are as follows: precious metals 30.03%, oilseeds and oils 12.13%, soft commodities 3.20%, non - ferrous metals 19.39%, coal, coke, steel, and minerals 12.87%, energy 2.66%, and chemicals 12.68% [4] 3.4 Plate Positions - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures plate positions in the past five days, but specific data is not clearly described [5] 3.5 Performance of Major Asset Classes - In the equity category, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.13% daily, 1.13% monthly, and was down 1.06% year - to - date; the S&P 500 was down 0.77% daily, up 0.68% monthly, and down 4.67% year - to - date; the Hang Seng Index rose 0.70% daily, 2.46% monthly, and 12.97% year - to - date [7] - In the fixed - income category, the 10 - year Treasury futures were flat daily, up 0.04% monthly, and up 0.11% year - to - date; the 5 - year Treasury futures were down 0.04% daily and monthly, and down 0.45% year - to - date [7] - In the commodity category, the CRB Commodity Index rose 1.35% daily, 1.20% monthly, and was down 1.51% year - to - date; WTI crude oil rose 3.43% daily, 1.55% monthly, and was down 17.84% year - to - date; London spot gold rose 5.88% daily, 4.34% monthly, and 30.75% year - to - date [7] - In other categories, the US Dollar Index was down 0.53% daily, 0.38% monthly, and 8.50% year - to - date; the CBOE Volatility Index was flat daily, down 4.29% monthly, and up 36.25% year - to - date [7]

FICC日报 | 2025-05-07 股指回升。现货市场，A股三大指数走强，上证指数收盘涨1.13%收于3316.11点，创业板指涨1.97%。行业方面， 板块指数涨多跌少，计算机、通信、综合、机械设备行业领涨，仅银行行业小幅收跌。成交量回升，当日沪深两 市成交金额为1.3万亿元。海外市场，美国商务部公布数据显示，由于企业在关税实施前增加商品进口，美国3月贸 易逆差环比增长14%，扩大至创纪录的1405亿美元，高于市场预期。美联储议息会议召开前夕，号称"美联储传声 筒"的尼克·蒂米劳斯发文称，美联储正面临两难境地，并暗示美联储可能会暂缓降息。美国三大股指全线收跌，道 指跌0.95%报40829点。 基差回升。期货市场，股指期货当月合约基差回升。成交持仓方面，IF、IC、IM的成交量和持仓量同步增加。 策略 总的来看，当前美国经济数据加剧市场对经济衰退的担忧，叠加美联储可能维持不降息，美股承压。中方决定与 美方接触，关税风险边际缓和，为国内权益资产提供了阶段性友好环境，股指配置窗口显现。中小盘指数有望表 现相对强势，主要受益于企业盈利修复弹性释放、前期充分回调后的估值修复动能以及补缺需求，IM有望相对占 优。 ...

美联储的降息救市！今日凌晨的五大消息冲击来袭（5.7）！ 这周四凌晨2点，美联储最新的利率决议将会公布，从现在调查东西的猜测看，维持利率不降息概率为96.9%，宣告降息25个基点的概率为3.1%，换句话 说，商场以为这次美联储宣告不降息几乎是铁板钉钉的事情。 三、彭斯打击特朗普：让老百姓买得起玩具娃娃是美国梦的一部分。彭斯在位时与特朗普形影不离，任其左右，腑首帖耳，一唱一和当反华急先锋；失位三 日就一反常态，把特朗普说得一无可取，骂得狗血淋头？ 五、说实在的，上证指数最近走势太复杂了，通过节前下跌的四连阴今后，周二一颗大阳又将指数拉上新高了。今日走势就非常关键了，如果是强势，实体 阳线就应该比今日还大一点。 美国前副总统彭斯，曾以为美国应在亚太地区强化军事存在，且建议通过动武来换取平和，这货可不止于让美国人没有玩具，他想让美国人没有生命。我们 快来看看，美国前副总统彭斯这婊子，跳出来汪汪汪叫梦想立牌坊。战争贩子让巴勒斯坦儿童尸横遍野，现在竟然关心美国儿童有没有玩具？都说"近朱者 赤，近墨者黑"。 让人忧虑的是，上证指数五日均线和十日均线下弯又上翘了，两根均线基本上粘合在一起，看上去死叉成为必然的。也便是说，后 ...