第一财经研究院发布的最新一期"第一财经首席经济学家信心指数"为50.50，回归50荣枯线以上。经济 学家们认为，中美贸易谈判出现积极信号，短期内国内经济景气度回暖。接下来应进一步提振信心、扩 大内需、深化开放、强化创新，将外部的压力转化为转型升级的动力。以政策工具箱的灵活性来对冲不 确定性，以产业链供应链的韧性来抵御外部的冲击。 工业生产景气度保持平稳 经济学家们认为，接下来应进一步提振信心、扩大内需、深化开放、强化创新，将外部的压力转化为转 型升级的动力。 尽管面临外部冲击影响加大、内部困难挑战叠加的复杂局面，但随着稳经济、稳就业政策措施加快落地 见效，中国主要经济指标有望保持平稳运行。 国家统计局将于6月16日发布5月份宏观经济数据。机构分析，工业、消费、投资等多项经济指标亮点频 现，国民经济应变克难稳定运行，发展质量持续提升。 中信证券分析，2024年同期基数走高，或对5月社会消费品零售总额同比增速构成一定拖累。分商品 看，在"国补"和"618"大促的带动下，家电、通讯器材类商品消费或延续较好表现。预计5月社零同比或 增长4.4%左右。 民生银行首席经济学家温彬表示，5月份，节日需求释放带动相关服务业表 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of style factors in A-share investment strategies, highlighting a quantitative framework for constructing style factor portfolios [3][7] - The manufacturing PMI shows a marginal recovery, indicating a need for continued policy support for domestic demand [9][10] Market Indices - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3385.36, with a slight increase of 0.04% [4] - The Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.19%, closing at 10183.70 [4] - The CSI 300 Index fell by 0.09%, ending at 3873.98 [4] Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw an increase of 1.16%, while the beauty care sector declined by 1.70% [5] - The communication industry rose by 1.00%, whereas the textile and apparel sector decreased by 1.18% [5] - The petroleum and petrochemical sector increased by 0.88%, while the food and beverage sector fell by 0.92% [5] Style Factor Analysis - The report identifies four main dimensions for constructing style factors: market capitalization, valuation, profitability, and momentum [7] - Historical data indicates that different periods in the A-share market have been dominated by different style factors, with high valuation factors expected to strengthen from 2025 [7][8] - The report suggests that high profitability, high valuation, and small-cap stocks will dominate the A-share market in the current year [8] PMI Insights - The manufacturing PMI for May was reported at 49.5%, a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating a slight recovery [9] - New export orders increased by 2.8 percentage points to 47.5%, while new orders only rose by 0.6 percentage points, suggesting weaker domestic demand compared to external demand [9][10] - The report notes that the construction sector's PMI showed a slowdown in expansion, while the service sector's PMI slightly increased to 50.2% [10]

Report Information - Report Name: Shanghai Copper Weekly Report (6.3 - 5.6) [1] - Author: Zhu Senlin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] - Contact: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Report Rating - No report industry investment rating is provided in the content Core View - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and rose significantly, with the main contract of Shanghai copper rising 1.71% to close at 78,930 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors disturbed copper prices, and there were new developments in US tariffs, leading to high global uncertainty. In China, consumption entered the off - season, and downstream consumption willingness was average. In the industrial sector, domestic spot trading was average, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 132,400 tons, showing a slight decrease last week, while SHFE copper inventory increased by 1,613 tons to 107,404 tons compared with the previous week [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper rose 1.71% to close at 78,930 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariffs affected copper prices. Downstream consumption in China was in the off - season with average willingness. Spot trading was for rigid demand. LME copper inventory decreased slightly, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 1,613 tons to 107,404 tons [3] 2. Fundamental Analysis - **PMI**: No specific PMI - related content is provided other than the title [6][8] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2024, the supply - demand is in a tight balance, and in 2025, it will be in surplus. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 - 2024, with a supply - demand balance of 110,000 tons in 2024 [10][13] - **Inventory**: Exchange inventory is in the process of destocking, and bonded area inventory remains at a low level [14][17] 3. Market Structure - **Processing Fee**: The processing fee is at a low level [20] - **CFTC**: CFTC non - commercial net long positions are flowing out [22] - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: No specific content is provided other than the title [25] - **Import Profit**: No specific content is provided other than the title [28] - **Warehouse Receipt**: No specific content is provided other than the title [19]

固定收益 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 6 月 8 日 PMI 修复，内需仍需重视 5 月 PMI 数据点评 制造业 PMI 边际回暖，内需相对而言仍需后续政策支持。 相关研究报告 《市场策略更新》20250601 《美国关税政策面临法律挑战》20250530 《策略点评》20250530 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 固定收益 证券分析师：肖成哲 (8610)66229354 chengzhe.xiao@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300520060005 ◼ 制造业 PMI 数据在枯荣线下边际回暖，中国国家统计局 5 月 31 日公布， 5 月份，中国制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为 49.5%，比上月上升 0.5 个百分 点。"抢出口"仍在持续，但边际有所放缓；出厂价格、产成品库存、主要 原材料购进价格、供应商配送时间分项指数下降，其余分项较上月有所回 升。 ◼ 分项而言，内需相对外需仍有所不足。PMI 分项中新订单增长相较新出 口订单增长仍有所不足。5 月制造业新出口订单上行 2.8 个百分点至 47.5%，但 5 月制造业新订单仅上涨 ...

Key Insights - The article discusses the phenomenon of "disappearing" inventory in the U.S. economy, highlighting that despite significant imports, inventory accumulation has not been substantial [5][17] - It also addresses the challenges faced by the unemployment insurance system in better supporting unemployed individuals [6] Group 1: Hot Topics - The U.S. economy is experiencing a significant increase in imports, yet the expected inventory buildup is not occurring, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend [5][17] - The article explores how unemployment insurance can be improved to better protect unemployed groups, drawing on both domestic and international experiences [6] Group 2: High-Frequency Tracking - The May PMI data indicates a deepening divergence between domestic and international demand, with improvements noted in consumer goods and equipment manufacturing sectors [8] - The legal challenges surrounding the legitimacy of Trump's tariffs are highlighted, indicating potential implications for trade policies [12] - The article emphasizes the importance of high-quality cooperation in the Belt and Road Initiative, focusing on infrastructure and market integration [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On June 5, equity index futures rose, while CGB futures had mixed performance. Most commodities declined, with energy & chemical futures leading the declines [4][6][14][16]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.3 in May, falling below the critical threshold for the first time since October 2024, while the Caixin China Services PMI rose to 51.1, indicating that the pace of business expansion in the services sector has accelerated [4][6][45][46]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On June 5, equity index futures rose, CGB futures had mixed performance, and most commodities declined, with energy & chemical futures leading the declines [4][6][14][16]. - The top three gainers were fiberboard (up 2.3% with a 226.9% month - on - month increase in open interest), coking coal (up 1.7% with a 3.4% month - on - month increase in open interest), and tin (up 1.5% with a 10.2% month - on - month decrease in open interest) [14][16]. - The top three decliners were aluminium oxide (down 2.9% with a 6.5% month - on - month increase in open interest), urea (down 2.9% with an 11.9% month - on - month increase in open interest), and rapeseed (down 1.8% with a 10.0% month - on - month increase in open interest) [15][16]. 1.2 Daily Rise 1.2.1 Coking Coal - On June 5, coking coal increased by 1.7% to 768 yuan/ton, and on June 4, the prices of coking coal and coke stopped falling and rebounded [20][24]. - Supply side: Some coal mines in Shanxi suspended or reduced production at the end of May and during the Dragon Boat Festival, and Shanxi entered a safety period with several safety accidents, raising market expectations of supply tightening. There were also rumors about Mongolia's coal tax increase and the new "Mineral Resources Law," but the authenticity of these rumors is doubtful, and the overall supply of coking coal is still relatively loose [21][24]. - Demand side: The output of molten iron declined at a high level, terminal steel demand entered the off - season, and there is an expectation of further decline in molten iron output. Coking enterprise profits shrank slightly, coke output declined slightly but remained stable overall. Downstream steel mills controlled inventory, and coking enterprises' raw material restocking enthusiasm declined [22][25]. - Outlook: The supply side is disturbed by rumors, and the basis converges when the valuation is low. The upward driving force is limited, and the rebound space of the market in the later period is expected to be limited, with the pressure level at the warehouse receipt level of 850 - 900 yuan/ton [23][25]. 1.3 Daily Drop 1.3.1 Aluminum - On June 5, aluminum remained at 20075 yuan/ton. Trump's trade protectionist measure of doubling import tariffs on steel and aluminum aggravated global trade tension, and the aluminum price declined from a high level recently [30][33]. - Supply side: The spot price of upstream alumina is firm, electrolytic aluminum enterprises' profits remain at a high level of fluctuation, and the import of electrolytic aluminum in China remains in a loss state, with limited supply growth room [31][33]. - Demand side: Downstream demand has strengthened to some extent. In the medium - to - long term, the supply - demand relationship of aluminum is in a tight balance, and the general direction of the aluminum price remains fluctuating. It is recommended to buy on dips [32][33]. 1.3.2 Aluminum Oxide - On June 5, aluminiium oxide decreased by 2.9% to 3063 yuan/ton. Spot price increase slows down, and the aluminium oxide market fluctuates [38][40]. - Since May 15, all operations of Shunda (SD) Mining in the AXIS mining area of Guinea have been suspended due to the revocation of the mining license [38][40]. - There is no shortage of ore in the short term. With the repair of the profit of the futures - spot market in the early stage, it is expected that the operating capacity will gradually recover and the inventory inflection point will be seen. The news of the revocation of the mining license in Guinea is repeated, and the market's game for the news is relatively intense [39][40]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI for May came in at 48.3, falling below the critical threshold for the first time since October 2024, with an expected figure of 50.7 and a previous reading of 50.4 [45][46]. - The Caixin China Services PMI for May stood at 51.1, an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared to April, indicating that the pace of business expansion in the services sector has accelerated [45][46]. - The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development have organized the selection of the 2025 central finance - supported urban renewal actions, with a total of 20 cities including Beijing and Tianjin planned to be supported [45]. 2.2 Industry News - The CSRC will step up efforts to study and formulate "Several Opinions on Further Strengthening the Protection of Minority Investors in the Capital Market" to ensure effective investor protection [46]. - The SFC of Hong Kong is considering introducing virtual asset derivatives trading for professional investors and will formulate robust risk management measures [46].

Group 1 - The May PMI is reported at 49.5%, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points, indicating slight improvement in the manufacturing sector [1] - The PPI for chemical raw materials and chemical products has expanded its year-on-year decline to 4.1%, while the PPI for chemical fiber manufacturing has decreased by 6.5%, reflecting ongoing price pressures in the industry [1] - Fixed asset investment growth in the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing sector has slowed to 1.3%, whereas investment growth in the chemical fiber manufacturing sector has increased to 17.6% [1] Group 2 - Inventory data shows a slight month-on-month decrease in finished goods inventory for both chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, as well as chemical fiber manufacturing [1] - In terms of upstream raw material prices, the average WTI crude oil price has decreased by 19.55% year-on-year, while natural gas prices have increased by 43.57%, and the average price of thermal coal has decreased by 6.69%, indicating weak downstream demand and a clear trend of price competition in the industry [1] - The valuation of the basic chemical sector has seen an increase in PB compared to last month and the beginning of the year, while the PB for the petrochemical sector has risen month-on-month but remains below the level at the beginning of the year [1] Group 3 - The chemical leader ETF (code: 516220) tracks a sub-sector chemical index (code: 000813), which is compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd., selecting representative listed companies in the chemical products and chemical fiber sectors from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets to reflect the overall performance of the Chinese chemical industry [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI Sub-sector Chemical Industry Theme ETF Connect C (012731) and Guotai CSI Sub-sector Chemical Industry Theme ETF Connect A (012730) [1]

德国5月建筑业PMI 44.4，前值45.1。 ...

Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for May 2025 is at 49.5%, a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points, indicating a slight recovery but still in the contraction zone[1] - The new orders index for May is at 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, while the new export orders index increased by 2.8 percentage points to 47.5%, highlighting external demand's contribution to manufacturing recovery[1][5] - The production index rose to 50.7%, a month-on-month increase of 0.9 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone[1][5] Supply Chain and Inventory - The raw materials inventory index is at 47.4%, up 0.4 percentage points, while the finished goods inventory index decreased to 46.5%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating inventory adjustments in response to demand changes[1][5] - The supplier delivery time index is at 50.0%, down 0.2 percentage points, suggesting stable delivery times despite the overall supply chain pressures[1][5] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 50.9%, remaining in the expansion zone for four consecutive months, with significant growth in computer and communication equipment exports, where the export orders index exceeded 10% growth[2][9] - The electrical machinery and specialized equipment sectors saw export order indices increase by over 10% in May, indicating strong external demand recovery[2][9] Risks and Outlook - There are concerns regarding the potential for increased recession risks in major overseas economies and heightened geopolitical uncertainties[3][17]

2025 年 06 月 05 日 铝：震荡横盘 氧化铝：偏弱运行 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 铝、氧化铝基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | 1-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20075 | 215 | રૂટ | 145 | -455 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20110 | ー | ー | । | । | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2487 | 17 | 4 | 17 | -152 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 160576 | -22947 | -39346 | ૨૦૭૨૦ | -24888 | | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 189969 | -1175 | -12504 | 1473 | -23438 | | | 电解铝 | LME铝3M成交量 | 179 ...