投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 贵金属 姓名：何彬 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F03090813 投资咨询证号：Z0019840 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：hebin@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 贵金属 | 周报 · 2025 年 6 月 3 日 贵金属周报 专业研究·创造价值 地缘政治和贸易政策升温，金价上行 核心观点 端午节前，金价震荡下行。端午节期间，地缘政治风险升级，美 国贸易政策再度升温，进而推升金价。 贸易政策方面：5 月 30 日特朗普表示，6 月 4 日起，将把钢铁和 铝的进口关税从 25%提高至 50%。此前，还威胁于 7 月 9 日对欧盟加征 50%关税，引发全球贸易战担忧。。 地缘政治方面：俄乌冲突加剧，乌克兰在第二轮和平谈判前夕， 对俄罗斯五个地区的军事机场发动大规模无人机袭击，目标包括西伯 利亚的 ...

| | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询系列报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 山金期货原油日报 | | | 更新时间：2025年06月03日08时20分 | | | | | 原油 | | | | | | | | | | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 5月30日 | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | | | | | | | | 绝对值 百分比 | 绝对值 | | | | 百分比 | | | Sc | 元/桶 | 447.90 | -19.20 | -4.11% | -4.90 | -1.08% | | | | 原油期货 | WTI | 美元/桶 | 60.79 | -0.13 | -0.21% | -0.97 | -1.57% | | | | | Brent | 美元/桶 | 62.61 | -0.75 | -1.18% | -2.42 | -3.72% | | | | | Sc-WTI | 美元/桶 | 1.55 | -2.49 | -61.62% | 0.35 | 29.19% ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The international commodity market experienced a rare synchronous movement, with gold prices surging 2.8% to exceed $3,380 per ounce, silver rising 5.32% to $34.73 per ounce, and oil prices increasing by 3.7% for WTI and 3.63% for Brent, reaching three-month highs [1] - This synchronous movement is attributed to a combination of geopolitical risks, expectations of monetary policy shifts, and supply-demand imbalances [1] Group 2: Geopolitical and Trade Tensions - The escalation of geopolitical uncertainty is driven by Ukraine's attack on Russian airbases and the deadlock in Iran's nuclear negotiations, which has heightened risk perceptions [2] - Former U.S. President Trump's proposal to raise tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50% has reignited global trade tensions, further fueling market anxiety and increasing demand for traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver [2] Group 3: Supply-Demand Dynamics and Currency Impact - The oil market faces multiple supply-side shocks, including OPEC+'s agreement to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day, but actual increases may be lower due to dissent from countries like Russia [3] - Demand is bolstered by the summer travel peak in the Northern Hemisphere and strong recovery in major economies like China, supporting the oil market fundamentals [3] - A weaker U.S. dollar enhances the attractiveness of dollar-denominated commodities, with the dollar index hitting its lowest level in 2023, prompting speculative short positions to cover and driving prices higher [4] Group 4: Market Outlook - Short-term market movements will be influenced by new negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, OPEC+ internal dynamics, and U.S. non-farm payroll data [5] - In the medium to long term, gold remains a valuable asset amid trade tensions and debt ceiling risks, while oil prices will depend on the rebalancing of supply and demand [5]

Group 1 - Japan Display Inc (JDI) announced a postponement of its investment in Taiwan's PanelSemi due to increased geopolitical risks in the semiconductor sector and a rapidly changing global economic environment [2] - JDI's consolidated revenue for the fiscal year 2024 is projected to decline by 21.4% to 188.01 billion yen, with an operating loss of 37.07 billion yen [3] - The company has reported a net loss of 78.22 billion yen for the fiscal year 2024, marking its 11th consecutive year of losses [3] Group 2 - JDI's Mobara factory, which produces LCD/OLED panels, is set to cease operations by March 2026, with plans to convert the site into an AI data center [4] - The company plans to reduce its workforce by approximately 1,500 employees in Japan, which represents nearly 60% of its domestic staff, as part of its restructuring efforts [4] - JDI aims to achieve profitability in its core business by fiscal year 2026 through measures such as layoffs and consolidating production at its Ishikawa factory [5] Group 3 - JDI plans to spin off its automotive display business into a subsidiary named "AutoTech" by October 1, 2025, to facilitate external funding and partnerships [5] - Scott Callon, JDI's Chairman and CEO, has resigned due to poor performance, with Jun Akama taking over as the new CEO [5]

【白银期货行情表现】 在市场高度关注美联储利率政策走向之际，鲍威尔并未在讲话中就美国经济与未来利率前景发表看法。 有分析称，鲍威尔此番有意"保持沉默"或许是为了避免在关键数据发布前提前影响市场预期。 美国芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦·古尔斯比表示，如果特朗普政府的关税措施最终没有最初公布的那样激 进，那么美联储的政策利率在未来15个月内"很可能会明显降低"。 美联储理事沃勒表示，假设有效关税税率接近较低关税情形，潜在通胀继续朝着2%的目标取得进展， 劳动力市场保持稳健，将支持今年晚些时候实施"好消息式"的降息。 【机构观点】 银河期货：贵金属市场虽然短期强势 但中期可能仍然以宽幅震荡为主 6月3日，沪银主力暂报8423元/克，涨幅达2.42%，今日沪银主力开盘价8520元/克，截至目前最高8522 元/克，最低8419元/克。 【宏观消息】 川普威胁对欧盟征收50%关税。川普不断的对全球市场进行发难，风险偏好再度回落。从特朗普威胁欧 盟开始，意味着关税战周期重启。 美国总统特朗普表示，将把进口钢铁的关税从25%提高至50%。同时特朗普在社交媒体表态中国未遵守 5月的相关贸易协定，但提到希望双边高层会谈解决问题。 俄乌 ...

什么样的行情才是最难做的行情？明明看着行情在涨在跌，可就是鼓不起勇气跟上节奏，除了一声叹息， 什么都没有改变，无论行情怎么动，总有一个理由阻止你，市场策略那么多，那一条才是适合你的投资之 道？与其感慨交易无常，不妨静下心来看看兴言如何用经验老道的分析打败踌躇不前的犹豫，用精准的进 场点位捕捉一次波动中的利润。 黄金假期为何暴涨？ 最主要的原因还是由于特朗普上周五最新的关税威胁，包括计划将钢铁和铝关税提高一倍至50%，以及乌 克兰周末对俄罗斯腹地发动的袭击，直接加剧了全球加剧地缘政治风险，并助长避险情绪，引发避险资金 涌向黄金。 "对于黄金预测而言，这种避险情绪和财政不确定性的背景再有利不过了。"加之美元重挫，黄金昨日价格 暴涨近3%。 黄金：反弹3390做空，防守3400，目标看向3360-50一线！回撤3350附近做多，防守42，目标看向3380- 85！ 记住交易并非易事,而是一丝不苟的思路和严谨的操作,而若想早日脱离亏损泥潭,走上稳健收获的正轨，很 简单，找到兴言跟上指导！一样也能稳健拿捏利润！ 责任编辑：赵兴言 【以上观点，仅供参考，投资有风险，入市需谨慎】 黄金暴涨之后今天走势分析！ 假期开盘，黄金 ...

时局依然不稳！ 今天早上，全球市场全线杀跌。日经指数一度杀跌近1.5%，中国台湾股指大跌近1%，港股三大指数全线杀 跌，恒生科技指数一度杀跌近3%，A50跌幅亦明显扩大。与此同时，美股三大期指亦是集体杀跌。那么，究 竟又发生了什么？ 分析人士认为，可能有三大变数出现。 一是，关税方向， 除了欧洲发出征收报复性关税信号之外，据报道，美国众议院上周通过的美国总统特朗普 税务及开支法案，即《大而美法案》，内容包括大幅修改在美海外资本税务安排的条款，包括向外国在美资本 投资征收报复税收条款。 二是，俄乌方向， 在俄乌谈判之际，局势突然恶化。据乌克兰安全局消息人士称，乌克兰无人机1日袭击了多 个俄罗斯军用机场，其中包括位于西伯利亚东部深处的贝拉亚军事基地。包括A-50、图-95和图-22 M3在内的 40多架飞机在此次行动中受损，损失约为20亿美元。 全球股市再度进入到情绪低迷期。今天早上，亚太股市开盘，几乎是全线杀跌。其中，率先开盘的日本股市持 续走低，跌幅扩大至1.5%附近；中国台湾股市在低开之后，跌幅扩大至1%。 香港股市波动更大，恒生指数开盘报23043.10点。翰森制药跌超4%，比亚迪股份跌近3%，快手跌2. ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market opened higher today, showing a complex trend influenced by the Federal Reserve's policy direction, which remains a key factor [1] - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.5%, with core inflation still above target, leading to a stronger US dollar (currently around 101.98), which pressures gold prices [1] - If the Federal Reserve officials signal a dovish stance in the future, gold prices may receive a boost [1] - Geopolitical risks, including tensions in the Middle East and military dynamics in the Yellow Sea, may drive short-term safe-haven demand for gold [3] - However, easing US-China tariffs and expectations of a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict could weaken market risk appetite, negatively impacting gold prices [3] - The largest gold ETF (SPDR) has shown frequent fluctuations in holdings, indicating significant market divergence [3] - Current gold prices are oscillating between $3280 and $3325, with key support at $3270 and resistance at $3325; a breakout above $3325 could lead to a rise to $3365, while a drop below $3270 may see prices fall to $3260 [3] Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - The silver market is experiencing price differentiation across different trading markets, influenced by an unclear global economic recovery outlook [4] - Geopolitical conflicts and trade tensions continue to disrupt the market, despite some countries implementing stimulus policies [4] - Industrial demand for silver is supported by its applications in photovoltaic and electronic industries, with steady growth in demand from the solar sector [4] - However, cyclical fluctuations in the electronics sector introduce uncertainty in silver demand [4] - Recent fluctuations in silver ETF holdings reflect investors' wavering confidence in the market [4] - Short-term support for silver prices is around $33 per ounce, with resistance seen at the $33.5-$33.8 per ounce range [6] - The MACD indicator shows signs of balance between bullish and bearish forces, while the RSI indicates a neutral to slightly bullish state [6] - The silver price is within an upward channel on the weekly chart, but faces resistance from previous highs, requiring strong trading volume for a breakout [6]

Group 1 - The announcement by President Trump to double tariffs on steel and aluminum imports has heightened global market tensions, leading to a decline in Asian stock markets and a rise in safe-haven asset prices [1] - Following Trump's statement, U.S. stock index futures fell by 0.4%, with the Nasdaq 100 futures down by 0.5%, indicating a negative market sentiment [1] - The geopolitical risks from the Ukraine conflict and OPEC+'s decision to increase production have contributed to rising oil prices, with Brent crude oil increasing by 2.00% to $63.84 per barrel and WTI crude oil futures rising by 2.37% to $62.23 per barrel [1] Group 2 - Global stock markets experienced their best monthly performance since November 2023 in May, but concerns over trade policies and U.S. debt ceiling negotiations have created uncertainty [2] - The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond has risen for three consecutive months, reflecting market concerns about fiscal sustainability, with a total increase of 15 basis points [4] - The ongoing tensions between the U.S. and China regarding trade agreements and the potential for escalating tariffs could lead to a repeat of the significant market declines seen in 2022 [4]

Group 1 - OPEC+ has approved an increase in daily production quotas by 411,000 barrels, consistent with previous months' increases, aligning with market expectations [4] - The decision to increase production contrasts with earlier rumors of a faster recovery of capacity, which had pressured oil prices downward [4] - Geopolitical risks, particularly the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and tensions surrounding Iran's nuclear program, are significant factors influencing oil prices [4][5] Group 2 - The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that Iran's enriched uranium production has reached a historic high, raising concerns about potential military applications [5] - Despite short-term geopolitical factors supporting oil prices, the market faces downward pressures due to ongoing US-China trade tensions and expectations of slowing global economic growth [5] - The strategy of oil-producing countries has shifted from "price protection" to "market share protection," balancing fiscal needs with market capacity through gradual production increases [5]