来源：证券时报 国际油价大幅跳水！ 随着地缘政治风险缓和，国际原油期货价格2月2日大幅下挫，WTI原油、布伦特原油盘中跌幅均超过 5%。其中，ICE布油一度跌破66美元/桶。 当天，有伊朗媒体报道称，伊朗与美国在未来几天内可能举行高规格谈判。此外，伊朗总统已下令启动 核谈判。同日，伊朗外交部发言人证实，伊美双方极有可能在未来几天内展开对话。 国际油价暴跌 本周一（2月2日），国际油价大幅下跌，布伦特原油期货一度暴跌超5%并跌破每桶66美元；WTI原油 一度大跌近6%，价格最低下调至每桶61美元附近。 油价还受到大宗商品，尤其是金属遭遇猛烈抛售的压力。2月2日盘中，现货黄金一度下跌近10%，铜价 也曾跌超5%，延续自上周五开始的回落走势。截至记者发稿时，现货黄金跌幅收窄至3%以内，LME铜 跌幅收窄至2%以内。 彭博社指出，此次急跌之前，油价刚刚录得自2022年初以来最大的月度涨幅，当时正值大宗商品整体资 金流入的阶段。与伊朗爆发冲突的风险以及局部供应中断的预期，使得今年开局首月的市场供应意外趋 紧。然而，原油的总体背景仍是供应偏高，尤其是在2026年上半年。 能源咨询公司Energy Aspects量化服务主 ...

进入2026年,"淘金热"持续不减，但是近期波动明显加剧，自上周五起黄金白银双双崩盘，国际金价接 近4400美元/盎司关口。 瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室（以下简称瑞银财富管理CIO），将今年前三个季度黄金目标价，从此前 的5000美元/盎司，上调至6200美元/盎司；并预计，在美国中期选举之后，金价将于2026年末回落至 5900美元/盎司。这次调整基于瑞银财富管理CIO认为需求强于此前预期，主要由投资需求驱动，而非央 行买盘。目前，瑞银财富管理CIO预测金价的上行情景目标价为7200美元/盎司，下行情景目标价为4600 美元/盎司。 尽管短期内黄金市场可能因获利了结、宏观预期切换等因素延续高波动，但主流机构对其中长期走势仍 持乐观态度。机构投资者普遍认为，央行购金、地缘政治风险、宏观经济不确定性以及投资需求的结构 性增长，共同构成了黄金的长期支撑逻辑。他们建议投资者在参与市场时，需密切关注上述核心驱动因 素的变化，并做好相应的风险管理和仓位调整。 金价近期大幅波动原因何在？ 黄金、白银价格暴跌，是多重因素叠加作用的结果。 首先，是宏观叙事切换与过度拥挤交易结构的共同作用。HashKey Group高级研究员 ...

Group 1: Geopolitical Shift - The Trump administration has shifted its stance on Iran, indicating a preference for diplomacy over military action, which has led to a decrease in geopolitical risks and market volatility [1][3][4] - The U.S. faces significant challenges in military intervention against Iran due to its military capabilities and geographical factors, making military options more cautious [4] Group 2: Market Reaction - The easing of geopolitical tensions has resulted in a historic sell-off of traditional safe-haven assets, with COMEX gold futures dropping 11% and silver futures plummeting 31% on January 30 [6][8] - The market's reaction is also influenced by the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed chair, perceived as a hawkish choice, prompting a reassessment of the Fed's independence and the weak dollar trend [6] Group 3: Speculative Withdrawal - The shift in market sentiment is reflected in trading data, with speculative funds rapidly withdrawing from gold and silver as geopolitical tensions eased [8] - The RSI index for COMEX gold and silver futures remained above 70, indicating an overheated speculative trading environment prior to the sell-off [8] Group 4: Fundamental Return - As macro narratives stabilize, the focus is shifting back to micro fundamentals, with the U.S. monetary policy still favoring gold despite a decrease in bullish sentiment [10] - Iran's potential return to normal oil exports could stabilize global oil supply, but the market still faces structural challenges, with predictions of declining commodity prices in 2026 [10] Group 5: Future Outlook - Uncertainties remain regarding the Iranian situation, particularly if Iran makes significant advancements in nuclear and missile technology [12] - The market may enter a phase of "macro narrative oscillation," with short-term uncertainties influenced by Fed policies and geopolitical developments, while micro fundamentals may provide clearer market direction [12]

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant volatility in gold and silver prices is attributed to multiple factors, but mainstream institutions remain optimistic about the long-term outlook for gold, driven by central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, macroeconomic uncertainties, and structural growth in investment demand [1][3][6]. Group 1: Recent Price Volatility - Gold and silver prices have recently experienced a sharp decline, with international gold prices nearing $4,400 per ounce [1]. - The volatility is driven by profit-taking, a shift in macroeconomic narratives, and concentrated trading positions, which have led to a chain reaction of sell-offs [3][4]. - The market's previous confidence in a dovish monetary policy was shaken by a sudden shift towards a hawkish stance with the potential appointment of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed chair [3][4]. Group 2: Institutional Outlook on Gold Prices - UBS Wealth Management has raised its gold price target for the first three quarters of the year from $5,000 to $6,200 per ounce, expecting a drop to $5,900 by the end of 2026 [6]. - The long-term bullish sentiment is supported by strong demand driven primarily by investment rather than central bank purchases [6][7]. - Analysts emphasize that while short-term volatility may increase due to profit-taking, the long-term trend remains positive, with potential price targets ranging from $4,600 to $7,200 per ounce [6][7]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Future Gold Prices - The sustainability and stability of central bank gold purchases are crucial, with a notable increase in gold holdings by central banks indicating a shift in asset allocation [7][8]. - Macroeconomic conditions and policy uncertainties, particularly regarding the Fed's independence and interest rate trends, are expected to influence gold prices [7][8]. - Geopolitical tensions, such as concerns over Iran, are driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, contributing to upward price pressures [7][8]. Group 4: Investment Demand and Market Sentiment - The World Gold Council projects global gold demand to reach 5,002 tons in 2025, driven by record investment demand, particularly through ETFs and physical gold purchases [8]. - The concentration of positions in the gold market, influenced by both institutional and retail investors, is expected to amplify short-term price volatility [8].

【导读】机构热议黄金白银高台跳水：短期波动无碍长期看多 进入2026年,"淘金热"持续不减，但是近期波动明显加剧，自上周五起黄金白银双双崩盘，国际金价接 近4400美元/盎司关口。 尽管短期内黄金市场可能因获利了结、宏观预期切换等因素延续高波动，但主流机构对其中长期走势仍 持乐观态度。机构投资者普遍认为，央行购金、地缘政治风险、宏观经济不确定性以及投资需求的结构 性增长，共同构成了黄金的长期支撑逻辑。他们建议投资者在参与市场时，需密切关注上述核心驱动因 素的变化，并做好相应的风险管理和仓位调整。 金价近期大幅波动原因何在？ 但美联储新任主席人选的押注在极短时间内明显转向鹰派人物凯文·沃什，这一变化直接动摇了市场此 前对降息路径高度确定的信心，对此前高度依赖流动性叙事的资产构成了直接冲击。与此同时，黄金前 期涨势已超出正常宏观定价节奏，机构与散户资金集中涌入导致仓位高度集中、杠杆化，在风向变化时 引发连锁抛售。 另一个因素是短期获利回吐压力。汇丰私人银行及财富管理中国首席投资总监匡正认为，在黄金快速上 行后，投资者获利了结的渴望增强，成为加剧短期波动的重要因素。 第三个因素是价格对边际需求高度敏感。高盛全球银行 ...

国际油价大幅跳水！ 随着地缘政治风险缓和，国际原油期货价格2月2日大幅下挫，WTI原油、 布伦特原 油盘中跌幅均超过5%。其中，ICE布油一度跌破66美元/桶。 此前，美国总统特朗普表示华盛顿正在与伊朗对话，地缘政治风险溢价随之消退；与此同时，更广泛的大宗商品抛售潮进一步加剧了油价的跌势。 当天，有伊朗媒体报道称，伊朗与美国在未来几天内可能举行高规格谈判。此外，伊朗总统已下令启动核谈判。同日，伊朗外交部发言人证实，伊美双方极有可能 在未来几天内展开对话。 国际油价暴跌 本周一（2月2日），国际油价大幅下跌，布伦特原油期货一度暴跌超5%并跌破每桶66美元；WTI原油一度大跌近6%，价格最低下调至每桶61美元附近。 截至记者发稿，布伦特原油、WTI原油分别下跌4.77%、5.12%，价格分别报66.01美元/桶、61.87美元/桶。在油价下跌背景下，美股盘前，能源公司股价集体下跌， 西方石油、康菲石油均跌近3%，埃克森美孚、雪佛龙跌超1%。 卡洛巴资本有限合伙公司首席投资官哈里斯·库尔希德表示："此次油价下跌，更多是市场头寸的重新调整，而非基本面的实质性转变。目前并无新的供应冲击出 现，此前市场已计入短期供应中断 ...

黄金价格在经历剧烈回调后，已接近首个关键支撑位——4600美元/盎司（上下浮动50美元）附近，守住与否对维持牛市结构至关重要。 黄金正面临自2024年牛市开启以来最关键的技术测试之一。 在经历了一轮由过度拥挤的动量交易引发的剧烈抛售后，金价已回落至去年9月以来的陡峭趋势线附近，并在夜间的迷你闪崩中测试了50日均线。 市场参与者的情绪正在经受考验。许多交易员在最新的抛售中希望能够平盘离场，但这暴露了大部分参与者缺乏真正的风险管理框架。 分析指出，当交易策略失效时，许多人默认转向"希望"，而在交易中首先应避免的是大幅回撤，而非执着于方向的正确性。此外，上海黄金期货的后续走势将 是值得密切关注的指标。 据The Market Ear分析 ，金价必须在4600美元（上下浮动50美元）附近企稳，以维持其建设性的市场结构。 当前的下跌主要是由于前期过度的"错失恐惧 症"（FOMO）交易以及缺乏下行风险管理所致，相对强弱指数（RSI）已从91骤降至46，显示出市场已从极度超买迅速转为自去年8月以来的最低超卖水平。 然而，市场结构的脆弱性依然令人担忧。花旗研究指出，过去三年黄金持有者积累的账面利润高达约20万亿美元，而推动本 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold is facing one of the most critical technical tests since the bull market began in 2024, with prices retreating to a steep trendline from September of last year and testing the 50-day moving average during a mini flash crash [1] Group 1: Market Structure and Price Levels - Gold prices need to stabilize around $4600 (with a fluctuation of $50) to maintain a constructive market structure, with the current decline attributed to excessive "fear of missing out" (FOMO) trading and lack of downside risk management [3] - The market structure remains fragile, with approximately $20 trillion in paper profits accumulated by gold holders over the past three years, while only about $1 trillion has driven the recent price increase, indicating that a mere 5% profit-taking could offset all global physical demand [5] - Citi maintains a target price of $5000 per ounce for the next 0 to 3 months but expects gold prices to decline to $4000 by 2027, a potential drop of 20% as geopolitical risks ease [5] Group 2: Technical Analysis and Risk Management - From a technical perspective, gold is at a critical short-term support level, with the focus on the $4600 mark; if prices fall below this, the next key observation point will be around $4250, near the 100-day moving average [6] - Market participants are facing emotional tests, with many traders hoping to break even during the recent sell-off, revealing a lack of genuine risk management frameworks [6] Group 3: Market Imbalance and Future Projections - The current gold market structure is extremely imbalanced, with the price rising from $2500 to $5100 driven primarily by investor capital allocation of about $1 trillion, while the physical gold market is too small to accommodate such large asset allocation shifts [8] - Citi forecasts that several geopolitical and economic risk factors supporting gold prices will ease by the second half of 2026, predicting a quarterly decline in gold prices from $5000 in Q1 2026 to $4200 by Q4 2026, with an average price of $4600 for the year [8] - In scenario analysis, Citi estimates a 60% probability that gold prices will fall to $4000 by 2027, with a bullish scenario reaching $6000 (20% probability) and a bearish scenario potentially dropping to $3000 (20% probability) [8]

Gold Market - The market sentiment has eased due to potential reconciliation between the US and Iran, leading to a decline in gold and silver prices as profit-taking occurs [1] - Technically, gold prices have dropped to around $4500, with support at $4280 and resistance at $4620 [1] Oil Market - OPEC+ has agreed to maintain its current production levels, reaffirming its commitment to market stability amid a positive global economic outlook and relatively low oil inventory levels [2] - Geopolitical signals indicate a de-escalation in tensions between the US and Iran, contributing to a decrease in oil prices [2][3] - The technical outlook shows oil prices facing resistance around $66.20, with support at $60.20 [3] US Dollar Index - The nomination of Kevin Walsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair is interpreted as a potential shift towards tighter monetary policy, resulting in a strong rebound of the US dollar index [4] - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain current interest rates due to slow inflation and weak economic recovery in the Eurozone [4] Nasdaq Index - The Nasdaq index is currently consolidating within the range of 24600 to 26200, with a bearish trend indicated by the MACD [6] - Support is noted at 24600 and resistance at 25300 [6] Copper Market - Copper prices have shown a downward trend, with support at $5.46 and resistance at $5.70 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The current market environment is characterized by significant geopolitical noise, making it challenging for investors to discern which signals are truly important [4][5]. Group 1: Geopolitical Risks - The Geopolitical Risk Index has been on the rise, reflecting increasing geopolitical tensions, including events in Venezuela and Iran [5]. - Historical data suggests that peaks in geopolitical risk often present buying opportunities rather than sell signals, as seen after the "reciprocal tariffs" incident [6]. Group 2: Market Signals - A narrowing of corporate bond spreads typically does not occur before significant declines in the stock market, indicating potential stability [7]. - Transportation stocks are on the rise, suggesting that the momentum of the U.S. economy may be strengthening [7]. - The U.S. dollar is weakening, but the trend is stable and not causing widespread concern; a recent discussion about a Danish pension fund selling U.S. Treasuries is negligible in the context of the $40 trillion U.S. Treasury market [7]. Group 3: Inflation Expectations - Three-year inflation expectations have risen from 2.25% to over 2.50%, reflecting market concerns about potential European tariffs and political noise surrounding Federal Reserve independence [8]. - Despite rising inflation expectations, they remain within the Federal Reserve's "price stability" range, indicating no immediate danger [8]. Group 4: Economic Fundamentals - The economic fundamentals remain robust, with relatively stable inflation levels and increased fiscal support from major economies like Europe, China, and the U.S., creating a favorable environment for the stock market [10].