Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights significant volatility in silver prices, with a notable increase of over 5% followed by a sharp decline, attributed to various market factors [1] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange announced an increase in margin requirements for precious metal futures contracts, with silver margins rising by 13.6% [1] - President Trump's positive communication with President Putin is noted as a contributing factor to market fluctuations [1] - JPMorgan's warning about potential technical sell-offs due to the over-weighting of gold and silver in the Bloomberg Commodity Index is also a key concern, predicting a forced sell-off of 9% and 3% of total holdings for silver and gold respectively during the 2026 rebalancing [1] Group 2 - Despite the short-term volatility, the long-term outlook for precious metals remains bullish, driven by several factors [2] - Trump's call for the new Federal Reserve Chairman to support significant interest rate cuts is expected to influence future monetary policy [2] - Fiscal easing measures from governments in Germany, the US, Japan, and the UK are anticipated to lead to increased global debt and fiscal deficit expectations [2] - The one-month borrowing rate for silver in London has exceeded 6.2%, indicating tight supply conditions [2] - Continued purchases of gold by central banks worldwide and ongoing geopolitical risks are also supporting the bullish sentiment for precious metals [2] - Future price resistance levels for silver are identified at $85-$95 per ounce in London and 21,600-24,000 yuan per kilogram in Shanghai [2]

摘要北京时间周一(12月29日)欧洲时段，美元指数高位回落，交投于99.141附近，金价目前交投于 4461.89美元/盎司，跌幅1.55%，最高触及4548.92美元/盎司，最低触及4445.69美元/盎司。警惕假期期 间流动性清淡引发的瞬间"跳水"效应。 黄金已连续上行逾一年，K线呈阶梯式逐级抬升，新高迭创。日线级别均线维持多头排列，中期上升趋 势未改，MACD位于零轴上方但红柱收窄，显示上行动能有所减弱。 北京时间周一(12月29日)欧洲时段，美元指数高位回落，交投于99.141附近，金价目前交投于4461.89美 元/盎司，跌幅1.55%，最高触及4548.92美元/盎司，最低触及4445.69美元/盎司。警惕假期期间流动性清 淡引发的瞬间"跳水"效应。 今日黄金价格最新查询(2025年12月29日) | 名称 | 最新价 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 现货黄金 | 4462.53 | 美元/盎司 | | 黄金t+d | 1005.00 | 元/克 | | 纸黄金 | 1005.25 | 元/克 | | 沪金主力 | 1007.18 | 元/克 | 【基本面解析】 近期黄金 ...

今日内容 宏观事件方面，柬埔寨称与泰国就柬泰边界总委员会会议联合声明草案达成共识。特朗普称泰柬冲突将 停火，美国在缓和这场冲突中发挥重要作用，美国才是"真正的联合国"。此外，美乌总统举行会谈，泽 连斯基称美乌安全保障已100%达成一致，特朗普则称已达成95%。特朗普称俄乌尚未就关键的领土问 题达成一致，地缘政治风险仍存，国际金价震荡收涨。 风险提示：近期国际金价波动较大，市场不确定性较高，请投资者注意风险管理。 图一：伦敦现货黄金与上金所Au9999收盘价 周五国际金价震荡收涨，开盘报4473.75美元/盎司，最高上行至4549.96美元/盎司，最低下探至4470.05 美元/盎司，最终报收于4532.51美元/盎司。 周五在岸人民币对美元收盘报7.0085，较上一交易日跌19个基点。人民币对美元中间价报7.0358，较上 一交易日调升34个基点。美元指数涨0.08%报98.0341。 央行周五开展930亿元7天逆回购操作，当日有562亿元7天逆回购到期，因此单日净投放368亿元。 图二：SPDR黄金持仓量与伦敦现货黄金收盘价 图三：美元指数与伦敦现货黄金收盘价 图四：恐慌指数与美国国债利差 数据来源：Win ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the report is "oscillating" [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ has suspended production increases. The long - term supply and demand of crude oil remain bearish. Short - term geopolitical situations are the main disturbances. Oil prices will still show an oscillating performance in the short term, but the long - term price center tends to decline [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - Long Term)**: EIA slightly raised its forecast for global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 and 2026. OPEC and IEA data on OPEC and Non - OPEC DoC countries' oil production in November showed different trends. Overall, the supply factor is rated as neutral [3] - **Demand (Medium - Long Term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA have different adjustments to the forecast of global crude oil and related liquid demand growth rates in 2025 and 2026. The demand factor is rated as neutral [3] - **Inventory (Short Term)**: In the week ending December 12, US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased, while Cushing crude oil inventory decreased. Gasoline and distillate inventories also increased. The inventory factor is rated as neutral [3] - **Oil - producing Countries' Policies (Medium - Long Term)**: At the December OPEC+ meeting, production was maintained unchanged until the end of 2026, and a new mechanism for evaluating production capacity was approved. The production of Saudi Arabia in November showed certain changes. This factor is rated as neutral [3] - **Geopolitics (Short Term)**: The Russia - Ukraine conflict is complex, and the US has imposed economic sanctions and military deployments on Venezuela. This factor is rated as bullish [3] - **Macro - finance (Short Term)**: The US GDP growth rate in the third quarter was high, but the fourth - quarter economic growth may face pressure. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January 2026 was 19.9%. This factor is rated as neutral [3] - **Investment and Trading Strategies**: The investment view is "oscillating". The trading strategies for both unilateral and arbitrage are to wait and see [3] Part Two: Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: Geopolitical risks have led to wide - range fluctuations in international oil prices. This week, oil prices rebounded and then fell. By December 26, the closing prices of WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil futures had increased to varying degrees [6] - **Monthly Spread and Internal - External Spread**: The near - month spread weakened, and the internal - external spread declined [9] - **Forward Curve**: Near - month pressure remains high [21] - **Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene all declined [26][37] Part Three: Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production**: In November 2025, global crude oil production increased. Different institutions had different data on the production of OPEC and Non - OPEC countries. US weekly crude oil production decreased slightly, and the number of active drilling rigs increased [49][61][84] - **Inventory**: US commercial crude oil inventory decreased, while Cushing inventory increased. Northwest European crude oil inventory rose, and Singapore fuel oil inventory declined. In China, the inventory of various oil products showed certain changes [85][95][106] - **Demand**: In the US, gasoline implied demand increased significantly, and refinery operating rates remained high. In China, refinery capacity utilization increased slightly, and the refinery profit of major refineries decreased, while the gasoline and diesel crack spreads were stable [108][118][127] - **Macro - finance**: US Treasury yields rebounded, and the US dollar index weakened [139] - **CFTC Position**: The net short position of speculative traders in WTI crude oil decreased [148]

摘要12月29日亚洲时段，贵金属集体走强。现货黄金上涨0.39%，最高触及4549.44美元，距历史高点仅 一步之遥；白银表现尤为抢眼，续涨逾6%，最高至83.94美元，刷新历史纪录并轻松突破80美元关口。 铂金小幅冲高0.66%，触及2467美元；钯金上周五大涨14%，周一盘初再跳涨逾4%，刷新三年高点至 2003.83美元。贵金属全线走高，既受工业需求回暖提振，也因地缘政治风险升温激发避险与配置热 情，市场热度持续攀升。 12月29日亚洲时段，贵金属集体走强。现货黄金上涨0.39%，最高触及4549.44美元，距历史高点仅一步 之遥；白银表现尤为抢眼，续涨逾6%，最高至83.94美元，刷新历史纪录并轻松突破80美元关口。铂金 小幅冲高0.66%，触及2467美元；钯金上周五大涨14%，周一盘初再跳涨逾4%，刷新三年高点至2003.83 美元。贵金属全线走高，既受工业需求回暖提振，也因地缘政治风险升温激发避险与配置热情，市场热 度持续攀升。 【要闻速递】 全球局势动荡推升市场波动，委内瑞拉紧张升级与美国联手打击尼日利亚极端组织伊斯兰国，令不确定 性加剧。投资者纷纷转向金属等防御性资产避险。 中国白银市场因估 ...

美国总统特朗普上周日（12月28日）表示，在佛罗里达州与乌克兰总统泽连斯基会晤后，旨在结束俄乌冲突的谈判已取得进展，但特朗普承认双方在领土问 题上仍存在棘手分歧。黄金的避险溢价面临回吐压力。特朗普在会谈结束后表示："我认为我们确实离（达成协议）近了很多，也许非常接近了。"泽连斯基 在讲话中称此次和平谈判是一次"真正伟大的讨论"，其中美乌安全保障条款已"100%达成一致"，不过特朗普在被问及该部分提案时给出了略为保守的评 估。泽连斯基说："我们同意安全保障是达成持久和平的关键里程碑。"此外，乌克兰总统表示，特朗普将于下个月主持乌克兰及欧洲领导人会议，以继续推 进和平计划的制定。 当被记者问及哪些问题尚未解决时，特朗普表示症结在于"领土"。特朗普说："部分领土已被占领，有些领土可能尚存争议，但在未来数月内也可能被掌 控，现在达成协议对你们更有利。"特朗普上周日早些时候在其社交媒体上发文称，在与泽连斯基会谈前，他与普京进行了一次"良好且富有成效的电话沟 通"。特朗普上周日在记者会上表示，计划在会谈结束后再次致电普京。这场在特朗普海湖庄园举行的高风险对话，正值结束俄乌冲突努力的关键时刻。 上周日早些时候，克里姆林宫一 ...

今日周一(12月29日)亚盘时段，国际白银目前交投于76.86一线上方，今日开盘于81.33美元/盎司，截至 发稿，国际白银暂报78.29美元/盎司，下跌1.04%，最高触及83.62美元/盎司，最低下探76.14美元/盎 司，目前来看，国际白银盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 白银供给侧继续恶化，而中国处于这一转变的中心。上海期货交易所仓库的白银库存已降至715吨。这 是自2016年7月以来的最低水平。这标志着从2020年峰值下降了86%。 【最新国际白银行情解析】 国际白银在创下历史新高后，正进行必要的技术性整理。只要银价保持在30-50美元的积累区间之上， 更广泛的看涨观点就不会动摇。银价果断跌破30美元将挑战看涨观点。然而，这一背景有利于银价在 2026年继续上涨，目标为100美元。突破100美元将打开通往250-300美元的大门。短期，市场很可能围 绕73至75.6美元的宽幅区间进行震荡整理。 另外，美联储降息和地缘政治风险将继续是2026年贵金属价格的主要驱动力，但高价格可能抑制实物需 求，尤其是在印度等关键市场。 此外，元旦假期可能导致交投清淡，市场波动性加剧。投资者应密切关注美联储政策动向 ...

Group 1: Silver Market Performance - Silver prices experienced significant volatility, reaching a high of $84.03 per ounce before dropping to around $75, with a weekly increase of over 6% and a year-to-date rise of 180% driven by supply shortages and strong investment inflows [1][4] - Last Friday, silver surged by 10.24%, closing at $79.14 per ounce, marking a record high of $79.30 [1] - Predictions suggest silver could reach $80 by the end of 2025, with potential further increases in the first half of 2026 [1][4] Group 2: Platinum and Palladium Performance - Platinum prices rose by 0.66% to a high of $2467 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 10.3%, setting a record high of $2454.12 [1] - Palladium also saw a significant rise, increasing by 14% last Friday and reaching a three-year high of $2003.83 per ounce [1] - The increases in platinum and palladium reflect strong industrial demand and geopolitical risks impacting the precious metals market [1][4] Group 3: Driving Factors for Precious Metals - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a weakening dollar are primary drivers for the rise in precious metal prices [3] - Market expectations indicate two potential rate cuts in 2026, enhancing the appeal of precious metals priced in dollars for overseas buyers [3] - The decline in U.S. Treasury yields further supports the outlook for gold and silver prices [3] Group 4: Future Outlook and Investment Strategies - There is a divergence in future silver price predictions, with some analysts forecasting a rise above $100 by 2026, while others warn of potential price corrections in the first half of 2026 [4] - The overall bullish trend in precious metals may lead to a consolidation phase due to rapid price increases [4] - Investment strategies suggest positioning for both support and resistance levels, with a cautious approach recommended for trading [8]

12月27日夜盘，上期所沪金主力合约涨0.17%，至1018.10元／克，当周累计涨3.68%。当天，COMEX 金价涨3.98%，至4562美元／盎司。 地缘冲突扰动持续，避险情绪升温。据报道，白宫已下令美军对委内瑞拉石油实施至少两个月"隔离"。 以色列官员预警称，伊朗全力重建弹道导弹库，两国恐再度爆发军事冲突；以色列总理内塔尼亚胡表 示，将与特朗普总统讨论伊朗的核活动问题。乌克兰总统泽连斯基表示，他与美国谈判代表维特科夫、 库什纳进行了约1小时的交谈，部分"敏感议题"仍需磋商。虽然特朗普持续对乌施压，但从此前乌方公 布的俄乌"和平计划"草案20点内容可以看出，领土问题并未解决，并且泽连斯基表示乌方不会放弃加入 北约，而这两点都是俄方关切的核心议题，若乌方没有作出让步，则俄乌和谈仍陷入僵局。 上周美元指数整体走弱，金价受地缘政治风险升温的支撑，维持偏强表现。美联储12月如期降息25个基 点，降息仍然是交易主线，12月中旬披露的失业率、消费、景气度等经济数据表现偏弱，对未来美联储 进一步降息形成支撑。综合分析，在地缘政治风险加剧、货币政策预期宽松的支持下，黄金价格料高位 运行。 资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66 ...

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/29 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB BRENT 1- dated bre | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | 2025/12/22 | 58.01 | 62.07 | 62.12 | - 0.49 | -4.06 | 0.28 | 174.22 | 11.10 | 215.81 | 28.57 | | 2025/12/23 | 58.38 | 62.38 | 62.11 | - 0.51 | -4.00 | 0.64 | 174.32 | 10.83 | 219.06 | 29.63 | | 2025/12/24 | 58.35 | 62.24 | 6 ...