新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-08 氧化铝交割风险正在进行中 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，昨日长江A00铝价录得20640元/吨，较上一交易日下跌130元/吨，长江A00铝现货升贴 水较上一交易日持平于-40元/吨；中原A00铝价录得20510元/吨，中原A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日上涨10元/ 吨至-160元/吨；佛山A00铝价录20590元/吨，佛山A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日上涨15元/吨至-75元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-07-07日沪铝主力合约开于20595元/吨，收于20410元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价下跌230元/ 吨，跌幅-1.11%，最高价达20625元/吨，最低价达到20385元/吨。全天交易日成交148670手，较上一交易日增 加34299手，全天交易日持仓255324手，较上一交易日减少16863手。 电解铝：绝对价格大幅度回落，现货升水底部震荡，社会库存出现继续小幅增加。冶炼利润在消费淡季扩大至4000 元/吨，长期来看在供给受限的背景下，行业利润的高企不是限制铝价上涨的因素，短期来看铝价的进一步上涨需 要宏观向好+微观消费走强共振。当前正值消费淡季，社会库 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-08 下游采购积极性有限 铅价暂陷震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-07-07，LME铅现货升水为-24.63美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-50元/吨至16975 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至-55.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-50元/ 吨至17025元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-50元/吨至17000元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化-75元/吨至17050元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-50元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/ 吨至10300元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10175元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10525元/吨。 期货方面：2025-07-07，沪铅主力合约开于17315元/吨，收于17210元/吨，较前一交易日变化-85元/吨，全天交易日 成交29406手，较前一交易日变化5076手，全天交易日持仓51045手，手较前一交易日变化-627手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17315元/吨，最低点达到171 ...

Group 1: Market Analysis - On July 7, 2025, the main contract 2509 of lithium carbonate opened at 63,200 yuan/ton and closed at 63,660 yuan/ton, the same as the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 213,304 lots, and the open interest was 322,534 lots, a decrease of 2,754 lots from the previous trading day. The total open interest of all contracts was 591,177 lots, a decrease of 1,661 lots. The total trading volume of contracts decreased by 147,150 lots to 283,996, and the overall speculation degree was 0.48. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 15,555 lots, a decrease of 5,481 lots from the previous day [1] - The lithium carbonate futures showed a volatile pattern of "opening low - surging - falling back - recovering" and closed flat [1] Group 2: Spot Market - On July 7, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 61,700 - 63,400 yuan/ton, up 2,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 60,450 - 61,450 yuan/ton, also up 2,500 yuan/ton. The spot transaction price of lithium carbonate continued to oscillate upward [2] - Affected by the improved demand expectation in July, the spot price stopped falling and stabilized, showing a slight rebound. However, the output of lithium carbonate remained high, the market supply surplus pattern continued, and the industry inventory pressure still existed [2] Group 3: Strategy - Overall, the short - term supply - demand situation has improved to some extent, but the surplus pattern remains unchanged. Warehouse receipts are continuously flowing out after the July warehouse receipt cancellation, and there is some delivery game in the near - month contracts. Attention should be paid to the progress of new warehouse receipt registration [3] - For unilateral trading, short - term wait - and - see and sell - hedging on rallies are recommended. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]

化工日报 | 2025-07-08 EG港口库存回升 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4279元/吨（较前一交易日变动+2元/吨，幅度+0.05%），EG华东市场现货价 4347元/吨（较前一交易日变动-33元/吨，幅度-0.75%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）72元/吨（环比-4元/吨）。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-79美元/吨（环比-2美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为35元/吨（环比+0 元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为58.0万吨（环比+3.5万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为54.2万吨（环比+3.6万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数10.6万吨，周度港口库存去库； 本周华东主港计划到港总数10.6万吨，中性，后期进口回归下港口库存仍有回升压力。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内供应端陆续恢复，短期供需结构依旧表现良性，但是仓单陆续注销流出后场 内可流转现货将得到一定补充；海外供应方面，近期海外装置逐步重启，供应预期宽松，7月初外轮到货集中。需 求端现实坚挺，但几家瓶片大厂近期检修计划集中， ...

市场要闻与数据 化工日报 | 2025-07-08 青岛港口库存继续小幅回升 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约13970元/吨，较前一日变动-35元/吨。NR主力合约12040元/吨，较前一日变动-55 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格13950元/吨，较前一日变动-50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混13850元/吨， 较前一日变动+0元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1715美元/吨，较前一日变动-5美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶 1655美元/吨，较前一日变动-5美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11400元/吨，较前一日变动-300元/吨。浙 江传化BR9000市场价11150元/吨，较前一日变动-200元/吨。 市场资讯 据隆众了解，进入下旬，半钢胎企业整体出货表现未有改善，国内市场进货压力较大，出口市场尚存支撑，多企 业延续控产，缓解库存增加压力。全钢胎企业表现稍显平稳，听闻，个别工厂次月有回收之前促销政策计划，短 期内或对市场拿货形成一定刺激，短期内关注其他企业价格政策动向。 据国家统计局最新公布的数据显示，2025年5月中国橡胶轮胎外胎产量为10199.3万条，同比下降1.2%。1- ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-7-8 原料偏弱拖累合成橡胶价格走低 油脂：昨日震荡偏弱，棕油抗跌 蛋⽩粕：供应压力主导，现货引领盘面下跌 ⽟⽶/淀粉：市场情绪偏差，期现弱势调整 ⽣猪：消费淡季约束，猪价冲高受阻 橡㬵：回落后企稳，短期下方空间有限 合成橡㬵：原料偏弱拖拽盘面走低 纸浆：走势僵持，维持弱势趋势未确认结束判断 棉花：棉价再次进入震荡僵局 ⽩糖：利多因素较为缺乏 原⽊：现货消化受限，短期仍偏弱运行 合成橡㬵观点：原料偏弱拖拽盘⾯⾛低 信息： （1）丁二烯橡胶两油标准交割品现货价格方面，两油山东市场价报11450 元/吨，-50；浙江传化市场价报11150元/吨，-130；烟台浩普市场价报11 100元/吨，-120。 （2）丁二烯国内现货价格，山东鲁中地区主流价报8850元/吨，平；江阴 出罐自提价报8650元/吨，+50。 逻辑：BR盘面于上周五大幅走跌，主要还是受到了在宏观偏强情绪偏强告 一段落后，来自原料丁二烯偏弱的影响。近期基本面交易不显著，更多还 是跟随天胶以及整体商品的波动变化。虽说近期并没有明显的基本面交易 逻辑，单边趋势不明显， ...

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/07/08 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: Li Qiang attends the first-stage meeting of the 17th BRICS Leaders' Meetin ...

期货热点追踪 纯苯期货首秀飘红，供应压力如影随形，未来前景如何？点击阅读。 相关链接 ...

Group 1: Stock Index Futures - On July 7, 2025, the three major A-share indices showed divergent trends. The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated and sorted, closing up 0.02% at 3473.13 points. The Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.70% to 10435.51 points, and the ChiNext Index dropped 1.21% to 2130.19 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 1208.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 219.9 billion yuan from the previous Friday. The CSI 300 Index adjusted and sorted on the same day, closing at 3965.18, a decrease of 17.03 from the previous day [1] Group 2: Coke and Coking Coal - On July 7, the weighted index of coke fluctuated and sorted, closing at 1429.2, a decrease of 13.0 from the previous day. The weighted index of coking coal had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 849.6 yuan, a decrease of 15.3 from the previous day [2][3] - For coke, due to the increase in the price of spot coking coal, some coking plants cut production at a loss, and the supply pressure of coke eased. In the short term, most coking plants can maintain a small profit, and the possibility of a significant decline in the coke operating rate is low. The downstream steel mills have stable profits, but due to environmental protection restrictions in some areas, the pig iron output declined this week, and steel mills only maintained rigid - demand procurement. For coking coal, the previously shut - down coal mines have gradually resumed production, and the output of coking coal has increased marginally. The customs clearance level of Mongolian coal was low last week, with an average of 600 - 700 vehicles per day. After the Mongolian National Day, the customs clearance is expected to increase. In the short term, the arrival of coking coal at ports is tight. Recently, the price of domestic coal has increased, and the import profit of some coal types has been restored, and subsequent shipments may increase [4] Group 3: Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the reduction of the spot quotation, the long - position liquidation suppressed the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract, which fluctuated slightly lower on July 7. The contract also fluctuated slightly lower at night due to short - selling pressure. As of the end of June in the 2024/25 sugar - making season, Yunnan Province sold 1.7511 million tons of sugar, an increase of 0.3182 million tons year - on - year, with a sugar sales rate of 72.40% and an industrial inventory of 0.6676 million tons, an increase of 0.0685 million tons year - on - year. Guangxi sold 5.1406 million tons of sugar in total, an increase of 0.6144 million tons year - on - year, with a sales - to - production ratio of 79.51%, a year - on - year increase of 6.29%. The industrial inventory was 1.3244 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3308 million tons [4] Group 4: Rubber - Affected by the concern that tire re - export trade may be restricted, Shanghai rubber fluctuated lower on July 7. At night, it fluctuated in a narrow range. According to Longzhong Information, the arrival and warehousing of overseas goods at Qingdao Port decreased week - on - week last week. Some downstream enterprises began maintenance and reduced production. With the rubber price running strongly, factories had no strong purchasing sentiment. The decline rate of the port's outbound rate was less than that of the inbound rate, resulting in a slight inventory accumulation trend of Qingdao's spot inventory. As of July 6, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 632,400 tons, an increase of 300 tons from the previous period, an increase of 0.05%. The bonded area inventory was 78,800 tons, a decrease of 2.36%, and the general trade inventory was 553,600 tons, an increase of 0.40% [5] Group 5: Palm Oil - On July 7, palm oil maintained a small - range upward oscillation within the range, closing with a small positive line with upper and lower shadows. The highest price of the day was 8490, the lowest was 8412, and the closing price was 8466, a decrease of 0.07% from the previous trading day's close. As of July 4, 2025 (Week 27), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 538,100 tons, an increase of 700 tons from the previous week, an increase of 0.13%, and an increase of 65,000 tons compared with 473,100 tons in the same period last year, an increase of 13.73% [5][7] Group 6: Soybean Meal - In the international market, on July 7, CBOT soybean futures fell. The good weather in the United States and the expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazil pressured the prices. The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced in its weekly crop growth report that as of the week ending July 6, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. soybeans was 66%, in line with market expectations. The forecast shows that warm weather and sporadic rainfall are expected in the central and western regions of the United States in the next two weeks, which is generally beneficial to crop growth. In the domestic market, on July 7, the main soybean meal contract M2509 closed at 2937 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.58%. Recently, domestic oil mills have sufficient soybean supplies, and the operating rate remains high. The output of soybean meal continues to be large. After the terminal pick - up volume is limited, the inventory will continue to increase. The loose supply pressures the price of soybean meal. In the short term, the soybean meal futures price may fluctuate and adjust. In the future, focus on the arrival volume of soybeans and the domestic soybean meal inventory [7] Group 7: Live Pigs - On July 7, the live - pig futures fluctuated weakly. The main contract LH2509 closed at 14,245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.45%. The slaughter rhythm of the breeding end has recovered. As the group pig enterprises gradually increase their slaughter volume, the willingness of retail pig farms to sell has increased, and the overall slaughter rhythm of live pigs has accelerated. Currently, the terminal market is in the off - season of purchase and sales, and the rigid demand in the downstream market is insufficient, which cannot strongly support the price of live pigs. With the relatively high production capacity of breeding sows, there is still supply pressure on live pigs in the medium and long term. In the short term, focus on the slaughter rhythm of the breeding end and the entry of secondary fattening [8] Group 8: Shanghai Copper - The better - than - expected employment growth in the United States implies that the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates immediately, which will strengthen the U.S. dollar and put short - term pressure on copper prices. The domestic economy is running smoothly and steadily improving, but it faces uncertainties such as external trade. There is room for policy support, which has certain potential support for Shanghai copper. However, as the reciprocal tariff is approaching, the market may have a logic of reducing positions to avoid risks, and the copper price has adjusted. In the future, focus on the implementation of tariffs and changes in the supply - demand side [8] Group 9: Cotton - On the night of July 7, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,720 yuan/ton. According to the China Cotton Information Network on July 8, the minimum basis quotation of the designated delivery (supervision) warehouse in Xinjiang of the National Cotton Trading Market was 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 23 lots compared with the previous trading day [8] Group 10: Logs - On July 7, the 2509 contract of logs opened at 791, with the lowest at 785, the highest at 794.5, and closed at 787, with an increase of 324 lots in open interest. Pay attention to the pressure range of 790 - 800. On the same day, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 760 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged from the previous day. According to Woodlink Information, the inventory of logs at ports increased slightly, the demand was weak, there was no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and the spot trading was weak. Pay attention to the spot price and the support of import data for the spot [9] Group 11: Steel - On July 7, the rb2510 contract of steel closed at 3061 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3191 yuan/ton. High - temperature warnings have been issued in many parts of the country, and affected by the typhoon in the southeast coastal areas, the demand for steel may weaken this week. If steel mills have difficulties in destocking, the steel output may also decrease, and the price of raw fuels may be under pressure again [9] Group 12: Alumina - On July 7, the ao2509 contract of alumina closed at 3042 yuan/ton. There are both disturbances in alumina ore and pressure from new production capacity. Recently, the financial meeting proposed the news of the withdrawal of backward production capacity. In the short term, policy news guides the market to oscillate strongly. Overall, although there are short - term positive factors in the news for alumina, the oversupply pattern is still difficult to change, and the upward pressure on prices continues [9] Group 13: Shanghai Aluminum - On July 7, the al2508 contract of electrolytic aluminum closed at 20,410 yuan/ton. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is close to the industry's upper limit and changes little. In terms of demand, the orders of terminal factories have decreased significantly in the off - season, and the high aluminum price restrains downstream procurement. The inventory of aluminum rods started to accumulate about two weeks earlier than that of aluminum ingots to confirm the inventory inflection point, and the inventory of aluminum ingots has also started to accumulate slightly recently. Whether it is an inflection point remains to be observed. The low - inventory state of aluminum is difficult to change in the short term, which plays a certain supporting role in the price [10][11]

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 铁矿石日评 日期 2025 年 7 月 8 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：7月7日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2510 | 3072 ...