苯乙烯方面，连云港石化，国恩苯乙烯装置重启，近端流动性问题有所缓解加上本周下游ABS利润持续亏损下出现负反馈，本周几家大厂裕龙， 漳州奇美，浙石化，英力士均有降负检修计划传出，苯乙烯由强现实向弱预期转变，盘面偏弱运行，近端基差走弱。后续关注"反内卷"进一步动 向，以及纯苯，苯乙烯出口成交消息。 消息面 上周东明20万吨新装置开始产出，连云港石化60万吨、广州石化7万吨装置重启，宝来35万吨检修装置影响扩大，苯乙烯产量、产能利用率环比扩 大。 机构观点 南华期货： 截至2025年12月22日，江苏苯乙烯港口样本库存总量：13.93万吨，较上周期增0.46万吨，幅度+3.41%。商品量库存在8.455万吨，较上周期增 0.225万吨，幅度+2.73%。 12月22日苯乙烯：江苏早间市场，目前闻现货/准现货意向6510/6530；1月下6530/6550；2月下6560/6580；单位：元/吨。 国投安信期货： 成本端支撑不足，苯乙烯港口库存去库节奏有所放缓，加之未来市场供应存在增长预期，导致业者心态趋于谨慎，交投气氛偏淡，市场呈现弱势 下跌态势。 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 l数据日报 | 指标 | | 12月19日 | 涨跌 | | ===== 16/17 | ====== 17/18 | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) ====== 18/19 | == | == | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 天津 | 97 57 | -3 7 | 2500 2000 1500 | ----- 21/22 | == | == | - 24/25 | - 25/26 | | | | | | 1000 | | | | | | | | 日照 | 17 | | | | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 (对主力合约) | 张家港 | 57 | | -500 | | | 05/21 06/21 07/22 08/22 09/22 10/23 11/23 12/24 01/24 02/24 03/26 04/26 | | | | | 东莞 | 17 | 7 | | | | M1-M5 | | | | | 湛江 | 57 | | 1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Night - time copper prices closed higher. Concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of break - even. Although smelting output decreased month - on - month, it still shows high growth overall. Power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance output is declining, and the real estate market is weak. Supply disruptions in mines have shifted the global copper supply - demand outlook to a deficit. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - **Zinc**: Night - time zinc prices closed higher. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, and concentrate supply is temporarily tight, while smelting output continues to grow. The inventory of galvanized sheets is generally high. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance output is declining, and the real estate market is weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but the current market sentiment in the non - ferrous sector needs to be noted. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. 3. Summary by Related Data - **Domestic Futures and LME Data** - **Copper**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 93,000 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 170 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 11,882 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 4.73 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 164,275 tons, and the daily change was - 2,650 tons [2]. - **Aluminum**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,120 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 160 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 2,945 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 40.15 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 519,600 tons, and the daily change was 0 tons [2]. - **Zinc**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 23,065 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 155 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 3,073 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 30.61 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 99,400 tons, and the daily change was 1,700 tons [2]. - **Nickel**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 117,180 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 4,670 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 14,803 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 187.63 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 253,938 tons, and the daily change was - 60 tons [2]. - **Lead**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 16,850 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 70 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 1,985 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 45.23 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 262,125 tons, and the daily change was - 3,450 tons [2]. - **Tin**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 343,040 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 6,520 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 43,227 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 11.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 4,425 tons, and the daily change was 235 tons [2].

· 黑色金属年度报告 | 焦煤焦炭：终归大海作波涛 | | --- | | 投资观点： 震荡 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025-12-22 | 年度报告 | 摘要： 2025 年焦煤市场呈现出供需边际改善的态势，然而市场价格却 明显下行。其核心在于，黑色产业链各环节并不存在明显的供给瓶颈， 市场正是通过价格下行来主动调节供需关系，即价格的下跌是促使供 需边际改善的原因，而非结果。对于 2026 年煤焦市场，需求端受钢 材市场拖累，预计钢材需求将维持持平或微降状态，进而传导至煤焦 需求端。供给方面，国内焦煤产量基本保持稳定，进口量则存在微幅 增长的不确定性，主要取决于国内外价差。不影响整体行情。总体来 看，煤焦供需关系有望维持整体平衡，价格波动的博弈焦点将集中在 煤矿生产政策的导向以及下游企业的补库节奏上。 从估值来说，2025 年上半年焦煤价格的低点极有可能成为未来 相当长一段时间内价格的底部支撑区域，但考虑到煤焦供给均不存在 硬性瓶颈，预计 2026 年焦煤价格的上涨空间仍将受到海外市场价格 水平的制约，下方则有蒙古煤长协价格支撑。焦炭炭价格方面，由于 焦化产能 ...

Core Viewpoint - Ethereum (ETH) has been fluctuating around the $3000 level for the past three weeks, following a significant drop to $2620 on November 21, indicating a market consolidation phase. Traders are questioning the potential for further declines if the $2800 support level is breached [2]. Price Movement and Technical Analysis - ETH's recent rebound faced clear resistance at the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $3260, leading to temporary support in the $2800-$2600 demand zone, which is also supported by the 200-week EMA [5]. - Analysts suggest that ETH must break through the $3000 resistance and effectively surpass the 50-day EMA to escape the current consolidation and aim for a sustained rally towards $4000 [8]. - A bearish flag pattern has formed on the daily chart after ETH fell below $3200, with a target price of $2300, indicating a potential 22% decline from current levels [18]. Market Sentiment and Demand - The futures market shows a bearish sentiment with a 3% premium on ETH futures compared to the spot market, reflecting a decrease in demand for leveraged long positions [11]. - The supply of long-term holders has decreased by 847,222 ETH over the past 30 days, marking the largest drop since January 2021, which adds to selling pressure and hinders ETH's ability to maintain the $3000 level [14]. - Ethereum's on-chain activity has declined, with a 45% drop in transaction fees over the past month, indicating weakening demand [17]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support is concentrated around $2800, where approximately 580,000 ETH were previously purchased [11]. - If the price falls below $2800, the next support range is between $2716 and $2623 [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Trend is strong [1] - PTA: Cost support is strong [1] - MEG: Ranges in a sideways market [1] 2. Core Views - PX: Single - side price trend is strong, squeezing downstream profits. Consider long PX and short PF/PR positions, and continue positive spread operations for calendar spreads [6]. - PTA: Cost support is strong, single - side trend is upward. Consider long PTA and short PF/PR, and hold positive spreads [6]. - MEG: Single - side is in a sideways market, and the medium - term trend is still weak [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: Naphtha price rebounded slightly at the end of the session. PX price rose significantly today. A 390,000 - ton PX plant in North China plans to shut down next week [3]. - PTA: No specific market dynamics information provided. - MEG: No new device changes in 2025. Pay attention to the further load - reduction progress of Yangmei Shouyang, with limited actual impact [3]. - Polyester: Mainstream large factories plan to cut production to maintain prices. A new 200 - ton/day cotton - type staple fiber production line started. Sales of direct - spun staple fiber and polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang improved [5]. Price and Spread Data - Futures: PX, PTA, PF prices rose, while MEG and SC prices fell. The price changes and spreads of different contracts are detailed in the table [2]. - Spot: PX, PTA spot prices rose, MEG and naphtha prices fell, and Brent crude oil price rose slightly [2]. - Spot Processing Fees: PX - naphtha spread and PTA processing fee increased, while short - fiber and bottle - chip processing fees decreased [2]. Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 1 - PTA trend intensity: 1 - MEG trend intensity: 0 [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy and chemical futures, including trends, fundamentals, and trading strategies for each commodity [2]. - It also includes market news, industry data, and macro - news that may impact the futures market. Summaries by Commodity 1. PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Unilateral price trend is strong, squeezing downstream profits. It is recommended to focus on long PX and short PF/PR positions and maintain positive spread operations [8]. - **PTA**: Cost support is strong, unilateral trend is upward. It is recommended to hold long positions and positive spreads, and long PTA and short PF/PR [8]. - **MEG**: Unilateral is in a sideways market, and the medium - term trend is still weak [9]. 2. Rubber - The rubber market is in a wide - range sideways pattern. Domestic production areas are stopping production faster, overseas raw material prices are high, but tire production capacity utilization is weak and inventory is increasing [10][11][13]. 3. Synthetic Rubber - It is gradually entering a sideways pattern. The short - term fundamentals of butadiene are neutral, and the fundamentals of cis - butadiene rubber have weakened, with processing profits likely to be compressed [15][17]. 4. Asphalt - It is in a low - level sideways pattern, and geopolitical factors should be monitored. Refinery inventory has increased, and social inventory has decreased slightly [18][28]. 5. LLDPE - Full - density production has partially shifted, and valuation support is limited. The market is weak, with marginal demand weakening and high inventory pressure in the medium term [29][30]. 6. PP - PDH profits have improved month - on - month, and the trend is weakly sideways. Cost support is limited, supply - demand competition is intensifying, and demand is weak [31][32]. 7. Caustic Soda - There is still pressure in the later period. It is in a pattern of high production and high inventory, with weak demand and high supply pressure [34][36]. 8. Pulp - The trend is slightly strong. The import pulp market price is stable, the port inventory is decreasing, and the cost of living paper is strongly supported, with prices expected to be sideways [39][44][45]. 9. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The domestic float glass price is generally stable, with weak downstream orders and some areas in the payment collection stage [49][50]. 10. Methanol - It is sideways with support. The port inventory is decreasing, but the MTO fundamentals are weak, and there is a cost support at the bottom [51][54][55]. 11. Urea - It is in a sideways operation. The enterprise inventory is decreasing, the demand - side drive is neutral, and there is support at the bottom for the 05 contract [57][59]. 12. Styrene - It is in a short - term sideways pattern. Pure benzene is expected to have a wide - range sideways pattern with a low - to - high center of gravity in 2026, and styrene processing fees are expected to remain at a high level [60][61]. 13. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The domestic soda ash market is stable, with weak demand from downstream enterprises and short - term price weakness [65][66]. 14. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: The short - term trend is weak. - **Propylene**: There is support in the short - term due to the expectation of supply reduction and demand increase [68][72]. 15. PVC - The trend is weak. It is in a pattern of high production and high inventory, with limited rebound space and high pressure on long - position holders to take delivery [76][77]. 16. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It is mainly in a sideways pattern with support at the bottom. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The night - session is strong, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has rebounded slightly [79]. 17. Freight Index (European Line) - For the 02 contract, pay attention to delivery opportunities; for the 04 contract, maintain rolling short - selling; for far - month contracts, pay attention to the progress of the Gaza peace talks [81]. 18. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Short - Fiber**: It follows the rise of raw materials in the short - term, and the processing fee is compressed. - **Bottle Chip**: It follows the rise of raw materials in the short - term [97][98]. 19. Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to wait and see. The market price is stable, the cost is high, the demand is weak, and the industry is in a weak balance [100][101][103]. 20. Pure Benzene - It is in a short - term sideways pattern. In 2026, it is expected to be in a wide - range sideways pattern with a low - to - high center of gravity, and the current inventory is high [104][105].

品种观点： 【股指期货】 周五 （12 月 19 日）A 股三大指数集体上涨，截止收盘，沪指涨 0.36%，收报 3890.45 点； 深证成指涨 0.66%，收报 13140.21 点；创业板指涨 0.49%，收报 3122.24 点。沪深两市成交额 17259 亿，较昨日 放量 704 亿。 沪深 300 指数 12 月 19 日震荡整理。收盘 4568.18，环比上涨 15.38。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【焦炭 焦煤】12 月 19 日焦炭加权指数强势依旧，收盘价 1702.6，环比上涨 34.0。 12 月 19 日焦煤加权指数窄幅震荡，收盘价 1089.9 元，环比下跌 0.9。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 星期一 焦炭：二轮降价落地，且有三轮提降预期。因入炉煤成本下行，即期焦化利润修复。库存，终端主动控制原 料采购节奏，上游矿山库存有小幅累库。中央经济工作会议释放多个重要信息，深入整治"内卷式"竞争、着力 稳定房地产市场。需求，终端钢厂利润承压，铁水持续减产。 焦炭现货，日照港准一焦炭（湿熄）仓单 1591 元/ ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 12 月 22 日 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 22185 | 230 | 15 | 305 | 1435 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 22245 | - | - | ー | - | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | | | | | | | | | | 2956 | 39 | 81 | 70 | 349 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 225621 | 37177 | -3581 | 1823 | 72280 | | | 电解铝 | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 315093 | 20928 | 290 | -104973 | 70065 | | | | LME铝3M成交量 | 21594 | -11947 | -1277 | 275 | 8371 | | | | LME注销仓单占比 | 14. 20% | 0. 00% | 7. 46% ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices are following the increase of raw materials in the short term, with short - fiber processing fees being compressed [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Short - fiber**: - Futures prices of short - fiber contracts (2601, 2602, 2603) increased, with short - fiber 2601 rising from 6180 to 6286, short - fiber 2602 from 6172 to 6292, and short - fiber 2603 from 6108 to 6276 [1]. - Spreads between contracts (PF01 - 02, PF02 - 03) changed, with PF01 - 02 dropping from 8 to - 6 and PF02 - 03 decreasing by 48 [1]. - The short - fiber主力基差 decreased from 108 to 38, the主力持仓 volume decreased from 141087 to 133093, and the主力 trading volume decreased from 220316 to 219076 [1]. - The short - fiber East China spot price increased from 6280 to 6330, and the short - fiber production and sales rate rose from 72% to 92% [1]. - **Bottle - chip**: - Futures prices of bottle - chip contracts (2601, 2602, 2603) increased, with bottle - chip 2601 rising from 5610 to 5672, bottle - chip 2602 from 5700 to 5766, and bottle - chip 2603 from 5698 to 5772 [1]. - Spreads between contracts (PR01 - 02, PR02 - 03) changed, with PR01 - 02 dropping from - 90 to - 94 and PR02 - 03 decreasing by 10 [1]. - The bottle - chip主力基差 decreased from - 21 to - 52, the主力持仓 volume increased from 37457 to 37920, and the主力 trading volume increased from 37859 to 63494 [1]. - The bottle - chip East China spot price increased from 5675 to 5720, and the bottle - chip South China spot price increased from 5700 to 5780 [1]. 3.2 Spot News - **Short - fiber**: Raw material futures rose significantly, and short - fiber spot factories mostly raised prices by about 150 yuan/ton. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber improved, with an average production and sales rate of 92% by 3:00 pm [1]. - **Bottle - chip**: Upstream raw material futures rose strongly, and polyester bottle - chip factories mostly raised their quotes by 50 - 100 yuan. The trading atmosphere in the polyester bottle - chip market was average, and 12 - 2 month orders were mostly traded at 5700 - 5740 yuan/ton ex - factory [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of short - fiber and bottle - chip is 0, indicating a neutral trend for the day - session main - contract futures prices on the report day [2].