Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: With frequent news about bio - diesel, the volatility of edible oils has intensified [2][4]. - Soybean oil: There are insufficient themes for US soybeans, limiting the rebound height [2][4]. - Soybean meal: After the uncertainty is removed, the price may rebound [2][11]. - Soybean: The price will fluctuate [2][10]. - Corn: Attention should be paid to the spot market [2][13]. - Sugar: The price is in a low - level consolidation [2][17]. - Cotton: Wait for the end of the adjustment [2][22]. - Eggs: The sentiment for far - month contracts has weakened [2][26]. - Live pigs: Wait for the verification of peak - season demand [2][29]. - Peanuts: The price will move in a range [2][34]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's day - trading closing price was 8,674 yuan/ton with a 1.12% increase, and night - trading closing price was 8,630 yuan/ton with a 0.51% decrease. Soybean oil's day - trading closing price was 8,016 yuan/ton with a 0.98% increase, and night - trading closing price was 7,996 yuan/ton with a 0.25% decrease [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From January 1 - 15, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 18.24% compared to the same period last month. The expected export volume from January 1 - 15, 2026, increased by 20.5% compared to the same period last month. The US has lifted the import ban on Malaysia's FGV Holdings. Brazil's 2025 soybean production was estimated at 166.05 million tons, a 14.6% year - on - year increase [5][6][7][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and that of soybean oil is also 0 [9]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean meal 2605's day - trading closing price was 2,727 yuan/ton with a 0.44% decrease, and night - trading closing price was 2,722 yuan/ton with a 0.40% decrease. DCE soybean 2605's day - trading closing price was 4,324 yuan/ton with a 0.21% decrease, and night - trading closing price was 4,303 yuan/ton with a 0.74% decrease [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 16, CBOT soybean futures rose due to strong domestic soybean crushing and the strength of neighboring corn and wheat. However, Brazil's record - high soybean harvest will limit the upside of soybean prices. Canada and China reached a trade agreement including reducing rapeseed tariffs [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of soybean meal is +1, and that of soybean is 0 [12]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: The day - trading closing price of C2603 was 2,281 yuan/ton with a 0.13% decrease, and night - trading closing price was 2,284 yuan/ton with a 0.13% increase. The day - trading closing price of C2605 was 2,277 yuan/ton with a 0.09% decrease, and night - trading closing price remained unchanged [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The northern corn bulk shipping port price was 2,280 - 2,290 yuan/ton, and the container first - class grain port price was 2,330 - 2,350 yuan/ton, remaining stable. The price in Guangdong Shekou decreased by 10 yuan/ton [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of corn is 0 [16]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 14.96 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,350 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5,258 yuan/ton [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: As of January 15, 2026, India's sugar production in the 25/26 season increased by 22% year - on - year. Brazil exported 291 million tons in December, a 2.9% increase. China imported 44 million tons of sugar in November, a 9 - million - ton decrease [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of sugar is - 1 [20]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: The day - trading closing price of CF2605 was 14,590 yuan/ton with a 0.58% decrease, and night - trading closing price was 14,535 yuan/ton with a 0.38% decrease. The day - trading closing price of CY2603 was 20,535 yuan/ton with a 0.63% decrease, and night - trading closing price was 20,525 yuan/ton with a 0.05% decrease [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The cotton spot sales basis is stable, and the freight for cotton out of Xinjiang has increased slightly. The price of pure - cotton yarn has declined slightly, and the downstream orders have improved slightly but are still limited [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of cotton is 0 [25]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of egg 2602 was 3,026 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.50% increase, and the closing price of egg 2603 was 3,072 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.39% increase [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of eggs is 0 [27]. Live Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 13,180 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 12,800 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 13,060 yuan/ton. The closing price of live - pig 2603 was 12,010 yuan/ton, live - pig 2605 was 12,260 yuan/ton, and live - pig 2607 was 12,885 yuan/ton [31]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of live pigs is 0 [32]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The day - trading closing price of PK603 was 7,830 yuan/ton with a 0.10% decrease, and PK605 was 7,822 yuan/ton with a 0.10% decrease. The price of Xingcheng small - Japanese peanuts decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 8,600 yuan/ton [34]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In Henan, Nanyang Baisha peanuts were priced at 3.75 - 3.8 yuan, and Kaifeng large peanuts were 3.5 - 4.0 yuan. In Jilin, 308 peanuts were about 4.6 yuan. In Liaoning, 308 peanuts were 4.5 - 4.6 yuan, and the price of Fuxin small - Japanese peanuts was slightly stronger [35]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of peanuts is 0 [36].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs BR Futures Data - BR主力合约收盘价: 1月15日为12190元，日度变化 -60元，周度变化175元 [4] - 持仓量: 1月15日为99183手，日度变化 -1393手，周度变化72844手 [4] - 需求量: 1月15日为150035，日度变化 -26996，周度变化48814 [4] - 成交量: 12月17日为181436 [4] - 仓单数量: 1月15日为26330，日度变化0，周度变化2000 [4] - 虚实比: 1月15日为18.83，日度变化0，周度变化13 [4] - 顺丁基差: 1月15日为 -190，日度变化60，周度变化 -125 [4] - 丁苯基差: 1月15日为110，日度变化110，周度变化 -75 [4] Basis/Spread/Inter - Variety Data - 02 - 03月差: 1月15日为 -60，日度变化 -30，周度变化 -10 [4] - 03 - 04月差: 1月15日为 -35，日度变化 -10，周度变化 -12 [4] - RU - BR价差: 1月15日为3805，日度变化 -105，周度变化 -210 [4] - NR - BR价差: 1月15日为660，日度变化 -105，周度变化 -275 [4] Spot Price Data - 山东市场价: 1月15日为12000元，日度变化0，周度变化50元 [4] - 传化市场价: 1月15日为11950元，日度变化0，周度变化50元 [4] - 齐鲁出厂价: 1月15日为12100元，日度变化0，周度变化200元 [4] - CFR东北亚: 1月15日为1450美元，日度变化0，周度变化35美元 [4] - CFR东南亚: 1月15日为1675美元，日度变化0，周度变化40美元 [4] Profit Data - 现货加工利润: 1月15日为 -273元，日度变化 -77元，周度变化 -384元 [4] - 进口利润: 1月15日为75元，日度变化7元，周度变化 -211元 [4] - 出口利润: 1月15日为603元，日度变化 -7元，周度变化222元 [4] Other Spot and Profit Data - 山东市场价（另一品种）: 1月15日为9875元，日度变化75元，周度变化425元 [4] - 江苏市场价: 1月15日为9650元，日度变化0，周度变化400元 [4] - 扬子出厂价: 1月15日为9550元，日度变化0，周度变化450元 [4] - CFR中国: 1月13日为1140美元 [4] - 乙烯裂解利润: 1月15日为 -33元，日度变化3元，周度变化9元 [4] - 碳四抽提利润: 1月14日为2648元 [4] - 进口利润（另一品种）: 1月13日为190元 [4] - 出口利润（另一品种）: 1月15日为 -1188元，日度变化240元，周度变化1493元 [4] - 丁苯生产利润: 1月15日为663元，日度变化 -25元，周度变化 -225元 [4] - ABS生产利润: 1月15日为 -871元，日度变化0，周度变化 -28元 [4] - SBS生产利润: 1月15日为 -215元，日度变化 -30元，周度变化 -220元 [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pulp industry is "shockingly weak" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The pulp market is currently in a state of weakening trends, with the spot prices of softwood pulp following the decline of the futures market. The hardwood pulp market has also shown signs of weakness, and the downstream demand is sluggish, intensifying the bearish sentiment [1][4] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of the pulp main contract in both the day and night sessions decreased compared to the previous day. The trading volume and open interest increased, while the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The net position of the top 20 members increased [3] - **Spread Data**: The basis of silver star - futures main contract decreased, while the basis of goldfish - futures main contract (non - standard) increased. The month - spread of SP03 - SP05 also increased [3] - **Spot Market**: Different pulp varieties have different prices. For example, the domestic price of northern softwood pulp is 5700 yuan/ton, and the international price of silver star is 710 US dollars/ton [3] Industry News - Last week, the decline in the futures market led to a decline in the spot price of softwood pulp. The hardwood pulp market also showed signs of weakness. The downstream demand is weak, with low purchasing willingness, and the bearish sentiment is intensifying. Attention should be paid to whether the futures market can stop falling and stabilize, whether the low - price rumors in the hardwood pulp market will become a general price - reduction behavior, and whether there are changes in the downstream's willingness to replenish stocks at low prices [4] Paper Product Market - The mainstream price of 70g natural white offset paper is 4450 yuan/ton, and the average price of 70g high - white offset paper is 4750 yuan/ton, which is the same as the previous working day. Factory production has not increased, and the market supply is abundant. The high pulp cost squeezes the industry's profit, and paper mills are determined to maintain prices. The market demand from consumers is weak, and it is difficult to effectively transmit the price downstream. Traders generally adopt a fast - turnover strategy, and there are price concessions in regional transactions. Attention should be paid to downstream orders and pulp price changes [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the rubber industry is "shockingly weak" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The rubber market shows a shockingly weak trend, with prices and trading volumes generally declining. The tire industry had a restorative growth in production capacity utilization in the first half of January, but there are issues such as flat shipments and rising inventory, especially significant inventory pressure on all - steel tires [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The daily and night - session closing prices of the rubber main contract decreased, with the daily - session closing price dropping from 15,995 yuan/ton to 15,835 yuan/ton, and the night - session closing price dropping from 15,950 yuan/ton to 15,750 yuan/ton. Trading volume decreased by 17,091 hands, and the open interest of the 05 contract decreased by 7,441 hands. The warehouse receipt quantity increased by 2,800 tons, and the net short position of the top 20 members decreased by 1,563 hands [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of spot - futures main contract increased by 60, and the basis of mixed - futures main contract increased by 90. The monthly spread of RU05 - RU09 remained unchanged [1] - **Spot Market**: The external quotes of various rubber varieties decreased, such as RSS3 dropping from 2,170 dollars/ton to 2,160 dollars/ton. The prices of substitutes like Qilu butadiene styrene and Qilu cis - butadiene also decreased. The prices of imported rubber in the Qingdao market generally declined [1] 2. Industry News - In the first half of January, the tire industry's production capacity utilization rate had a restorative growth. The production capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.53%, a month - on - month increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points. The production capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a month - on - month increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points [2][3] - The tire industry's shipments are flat, and inventory is rising. As of January 15, the average inventory turnover days of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 47.92 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.56 days, and that of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 46.1 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.48 days. All - steel tires are under greater inventory pressure [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term supply of LPG is tight, and attention should be paid to the realization of downward drivers. After the rapid increase in the spot price of propylene, the upward driving force has weakened [1]. 3. Summary of Relevant Content by Category 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For LPG (PG), on January 26th, the 2602 contract had a closing price of 4,202 with a daily decline of 2.12% and a night - session closing price of 4,217 with a 0.36% increase; the 2603 contract had a closing price of 4,137 with a 2.27% decline and a night - session closing price of 4,147 with a 0.24% increase; the 2604 contract had a closing price of 4,379 with a 1.55% decline and a night - session closing price of 4,397 with a 0.41% increase. For propylene (PL), the 2602 contract had a closing price of 5,953 with a 1.20% decline and a night - session closing price of 5,981 with a 0.47% increase; the 2603 contract had a closing price of 6,050 with a 1.18% decline and a night - session closing price of 6,084 with a 0.56% increase; the 2604 contract had a closing price of 6,089 with a 1.14% decline and a night - session closing price of 6,124 with a 0.57% increase [1]. - **Spot Market**: For LPG, the prices of Shandong civil, East China civil, South China civil were 4,440, 4,523, 5,035 respectively, with changes of 0, - 20, - 10 compared to the previous day; the prices of East China imported, South China imported were 4,933, 5,110 respectively, with changes of 23, - 25. For propylene, the prices in Shandong and East China were 6,145, 6,325 respectively, with changes of 35, 0 [1]. - **Industrial Chain Start - up Rate**: As of January 16, 2026, the PDH start - up rate was 73.07%, a decrease of 2.54% compared to the previous week; the alkylation start - up rate was 37.07%, unchanged; the MTBE start - up rate was 67.57%, unchanged [1]. - **LPG Shipment Volume**: On January 18, 2026, the global LPG shipment volume from the US was 19.6 tons, an increase of 9.6 tons compared to the previous day; the shipment volume to Asia was 9.2 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons. The global LPG shipment volume from the Middle East was 7.2 tons, an increase of 0.5 tons; the shipment volume to Asia was 7.2 tons, an increase of 0.7 tons [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and the trend intensity of propylene is 0. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the interval [-2, 2], with - 2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [5]. 3.3 Market Information - On January 16, 2026, the February CP paper - cargo price of propane was 527 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the price of butane was 515 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The March CP paper - cargo price of propane was 509 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton [6]. - There are multiple domestic PDH device maintenance plans. For example, the PDH phase II of Jinneng Technology Co., Ltd. will be under maintenance from January 13, 2026, to early February 2026; the PDH phase II of Wanhua Chemical (Penglai) Co., Ltd. started maintenance on January 14, 2026, with the end time to be determined [7]. - There are also domestic liquefied gas plant device maintenance plans. For example, Rizhao (Zhonghai) will have the whole - plant maintenance starting from January 3, 2025, with the end time to be determined; Shenchi Chemical Co., Ltd. will have the whole - plant maintenance from December 2025 to the end of February 2026 [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The report presents the market trends and fundamental data of various energy and chemical products on January 19, 2026, including rubber, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, etc. Each product has a specific trend judgment, such as "oscillating weakly", "high - level oscillation", etc. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rubber - Trend: Oscillating weakly [2][4] - Fundamental data: The day - session closing price of the rubber main contract decreased by 160 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased by 17,091 lots. The spot - futures basis and the difference between the mixed rubber and the futures main contract increased [4] - Industry news: In the first half of January, the tire industry's start - up rate increased, with semi - steel tires more significantly improved. However, the tire industry's shipment was dull, and inventory increased, especially for all - steel tires [5][6] Synthetic Rubber - Trend: High - level oscillation [2][7] - Fundamental data: The day - session closing price of the butadiene rubber main contract decreased by 375 yuan/ton, and the trading volume increased by 13,086 lots. The basis increased by 275 [7] - Industry news: The inventory of butadiene in East China ports and domestic butadiene rubber increased. In the short term, butadiene rubber is in a high - level wide - range oscillation pattern, and the short - term fundamentals of butadiene are slightly bullish [8][9] LLDPE - Trend: The low production of standard products continues, and spot trading weakens [2][10] - Fundamental data: The closing price of L2605 decreased by 1.33%, and the 05 contract basis increased from - 135 to - 95 [10] - Market analysis: The upstream inventory transfer is smooth, but the downstream is resistant to high prices. The raw material price is strong, and the ethylene monomer link is weak. The medium - term supply and demand pressure still exists [10][11] PP - Trend: The monomer prices continue to diverge, and PP cost support is relatively strong [2][13] - Fundamental data: The closing price of PP2605 decreased by 1.46%, and the 05 contract basis increased from - 172 to - 146 [13] - Market analysis: The cost side is strong, and the supply - demand game of existing stocks intensifies. The demand side is weak, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [13][14] Caustic Soda - Trend: Near - term pressure continues [2][16] - Fundamental data: The price of the 03 - contract futures is 2006 yuan/ton, and the basis is 57 [16] - Market analysis: The cost and supply - demand of caustic soda have collapsed, and the near - term pressure is high. The far - term contracts need to be cautious about short - selling [16][17] Pulp - Trend: Oscillating weakly [2][20] - Fundamental data: The day - session closing price of the pulp main contract decreased by 74 yuan/ton, and the trading volume increased by 145,287 lots [22] - Industry news: The decline in the futures market has affected the spot price, and the downstream demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the futures market's stop - falling and the downstream's replenishment willingness [23] Glass - Trend: The original sheet price is stable [2][25] - Fundamental data: The closing price of FG605 increased by 1.29%, and the 05 contract basis decreased from - 36 to - 53 [26] - Market analysis: The supply - side pressure is not large, the downstream demand is weak, and export orders support the rigid demand [26] Methanol - Trend: Oscillating [2][28] - Fundamental data: The closing price of the methanol main contract decreased by 34 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased by 295,829 lots [29] - Market analysis: The methanol market is weak in the short term, and the port inventory is significantly reduced. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upside and downside space [31][32] Urea - Trend: Oscillating and consolidating [2][33] - Fundamental data: The closing price of the urea main contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the trading volume increased by 12,272 lots [34] - Industry news: The inventory of domestic urea enterprises decreased slightly. In the short term, the price may回调 slightly, but the medium - term is still bullish [35][36] Styrene - Trend: Short - term oscillation [2][37] - Fundamental data: The price of styrene 2602 increased by 75, and the non - integrated profit increased by 61 [37] - Market news: The short - term export of styrene exceeds expectations, and the downstream replenishment cycle has started. The short - term is in high - level oscillation [38] Soda Ash - Trend: The spot market has little change [2][39] - Fundamental data: The closing price of SA2605 decreased by 0.75%, and the 05 contract basis is 8 [40] - Market news: The domestic soda ash market is stable with slight oscillations, the production is at a high level, and the downstream replenishes inventory at low prices. The short - term lacks substantial support [40] LPG and Propylene - Trend: Short - term supply of LPG is tight, and attention should be paid to the realization of downward drivers; the upward driver of propylene weakens after the spot price rises rapidly [2][43] - Fundamental data: The closing prices of LPG and propylene futures contracts have different degrees of decline, and the spot prices also have corresponding changes [43] - Market news: The 2 - month CP paper cargo price of propane decreased, and there are many domestic PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [48][49] PVC - Trend: Weakly oscillating [2][53] - Fundamental data: The 05 - contract futures price is 4803 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 223 [51] - Market analysis: The PVC market has a high - production, high - inventory structure, and the short - term supply and demand improvement is limited. The short - term做空 of chlor - alkali profit is the core logic [51][52] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Trend: Fuel oil oscillates in a narrow range, and the upward trend pauses; low - sulfur fuel oil rebounds slightly at night, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable [2][54] - Fundamental data: The closing prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures contracts have different degrees of decline, and the spot prices also change slightly [54] Container Freight Index (European Line) - Trend: Weakly oscillating [2][56] - Fundamental data: The closing price of EC2602 increased by 0.50%, and the trading volume is 2,673 [56] - Market news: The freight rates of European and US - West routes have increased, and the future shipping schedule may be dynamically adjusted [56][63] Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - Trend: Short - fiber is in a short - term oscillation market, and the processing fee runs at a low level; bottle chip is in a short - term oscillation market [2][69] - Fundamental data: The prices of short - fiber and bottle - chip futures contracts have different degrees of decline, and the spot prices also decrease [69] - Market news: The short - fiber futures oscillate at a low level, and the spot price is lowered. The bottle - chip factory lowers the price, and the market trading atmosphere is acceptable [69][70] Offset Printing Paper - Trend: Close short positions opportunistically [2][72] - Fundamental data: The prices in the spot market are stable, and the futures prices decline. The basis in the Shandong and Guangdong markets increases [72] - Industry news: The prices in the Shandong and Guangdong markets are stable, the production is basically stable, and the new orders are limited [73][75] Pure Benzene - Trend: Short - term oscillation [2][77] - Fundamental data: The prices of pure benzene futures contracts increase slightly, and the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports increases [77] - News: The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu and Chinese ports increases, and the spot price of pure benzene in Shandong and East China decreases [78][79]

碳酸锂主力合约日内跌超6%，现报143860元/吨。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, Shanghai Tin prices broke through significantly at high levels and then fell sharply. On January 16, 2026, the spot price of Mysteel's comprehensive 1 tin was 413,500 yuan/ton, with large price fluctuations and significant changes in the basis. - In November, refined tin production was 15,490 tons, returning to normal both month - on - month and year - on - year. From January to October, the domestic tin ore production was 61,800 tons, with a slight year - on - year increase, and domestic tin ore supply remained stable. Myanmar's repeated progress in mine resumption affected the price range, and Indonesia's exports decreased in December. - In November, the demand growth of integrated circuits, automobiles, and PVC remained strong, while the demand in traditional sectors such as computers and some white goods slowed down. It is expected that in December, the demand in emerging sectors will maintain resilience, and the demand in some traditional sectors will be adjusted. In 2025, China's foreign trade imports and exports reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%, maintaining growth for 9 consecutive years. China's automobile production and sales both exceeded 34 million units in 2025, reaching a new high and ranking first globally for 17 consecutive years. The domestic economy is resilient, and the prosperity of the new energy and semiconductor industries is rising. Overseas uncertainties remain high, and there is still a high probability of interest rate cuts in the later period. - The mining end remains tight, and processing fees continue to decline weakly. Overall, profits will remain low under the influence of mining end disturbances. - LME inventories increased slightly week - on - week, SHFE inventories increased significantly week - on - week, and social inventories decreased slightly week - on - week. - Due to insufficient supply, the domestic economy still has resilience, and the overall prosperity of semiconductors, automobiles, etc. remains upward. Overseas uncertainties remain high, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts in the later period. The mining end situation is volatile. High - price expectations suppress demand and stimulate supply. After the futures price was significantly pulled up by funds and then fell sharply, the industry association called on all parties in the market to maintain a rational and cautious attitude, and the exchange introduced cooling measures. In terms of operation, reduce the holdings of long positions. The weekly reference support level has been raised to around 360,000 - 363,000 yuan/ton. For those who bought put options, they can reduce their positions after the market stabilizes. Later, focus should be on the implementation of macro - measures, the disturbances of Myanmar and Congo mines, the speed of Indonesia's exports, and the verification of consumption data. [14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - Week View and Strategy - **View**: The impact factors such as output, downstream demand, inventory, imports and exports, market sentiment, cost - profit, and macro environment are all rated as neutral [15]. - **Strategy**: Reduce the holdings of long positions, with the weekly reference support level raised to around 360,000 - 363,000 yuan/ton. For put option buyers, reduce positions after the market stabilizes. Focus on macro - measures, mine disturbances, Indonesia's exports, and consumption data [14]. 3.2. Industrial Chain Structure No specific content provided for in - depth summary. 3.3. Futures and Spot Market No specific content provided for in - depth summary other than the mention of SHFE and LME tin futures - spot prices and basis charts [21]. 3.4. Inventory - As of January 15, 2026, SHFE tin inventory was 9,526 tons, with a significant week - on - week increase. - As of January 14, 2026, LME total tin inventory was 5,925 tons, with a slight week - on - week increase. - As of January 9, 2026, refined tin social inventory was 8,076 tons, with a slight week - on - week decrease [33][37]. 3.5. Cost - Profit As of January 15, 2026, the processing fee of Yunnan concentrate was 11,000 yuan/ton, and that of Guangxi concentrate was 7,000 yuan/ton. Processing fees continued to be weak [42]. 3.6. Supply - In November 2025, refined tin production was 15,490 tons, returning to normal supply. In October 2025, domestic tin ore production was 5,236.8 tons, with a slight month - on - month decrease. - In November 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tin enterprises was about 66.5%, returning to normal [48][52]. 3.7. Demand - In November 2025, China's automobile production was 3.519 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 2.4%; China's electronic computer production was 29.028 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. - In December 2025, China's PVC production was 2.137 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%; in November 2025, China's mobile electronic communication production was 142.35 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 11.6%. - In November 2025, China's air - conditioner production was 15.026 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.4%; China's refrigerator production was 9.442 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. - In November 2025, China's washing - machine production was 12.013 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%; China's color television production was 17.449 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. - In November 2025, China's solar energy production was 73.49 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%; China's integrated circuit production was 43.9 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 15.6% [59][64][69][74][78]. 3.8. Imports and Exports - In November 2025, China imported 15,000 tons of tin ore, with a significant month - on - month increase; imported 1,194 tons of tin ingots; and exported 2,045 tons of refined tin and alloys [82]. 3.9. Supply - Demand Table | Year/(10,000 tons) | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | China's Production | 18.1 | 15.9 | 18 | 19.8 | 17.9 | 17.4 | 18.1 | 18.45 | 18.67 | | Overseas Production | 17.7 | 19.5 | 14.8 | 15.3 | 20.1 | 19.2 | 17.1 | 17.5 | 19.3 | | Global Supply | 35.8 | 35.4 | 32.8 | 35.1 | 38 | 36.6 | 35.2 | 35.95 | 37.97 | | China's Demand | 14.9 | 14 | 16.4 | 18.4 | 18.1 | 18.75 | 19.1 | 19.3 | 19.87 | | Overseas Demand | 22.3 | 21.9 | 18.8 | 20.5 | 19.9 | 18.2 | 18.1 | 18.7 | 19.15 | | Global Demand | 37.2 | 35.9 | 35.2 | 38.9 | 38 | 36.95 | 37.2 | 38 | 39.02 | | Global Supply - Demand Balance | - 1.4 | - 0.5 | - 2.4 | - 3.8 | 0.05 | - 0.35 | - 2 | - 2.05 | - 1.05 | [85]

Group 1 - The content does not provide any relevant information regarding the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy and shipping, financial futures, agricultural products, or macroeconomic impacts [1][2][3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of the close on January 16, domestic futures main contracts mostly declined. Polysilicon and rapeseed oil rose over 2%, while lithium carbonate and container shipping to Europe routes dropped over 8%, and tin and nickel futures also fell significantly. Different futures varieties showed distinct trends due to various factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, geopolitical events, and policy changes [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Commodity Performance - As of January 16, domestic futures main contracts showed a pattern of more declines than increases. Polysilicon and rapeseed oil rose over 2%, glass rose over 1%; lithium carbonate and container shipping to Europe routes dropped over 8%, tin dropped over 6%, nickel, butadiene rubber, fuel oil, caustic soda, and SC crude oil dropped over 3%, and apples, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and copper dropped over 2%. In the stock index futures, the CSI 300 futures (IF) main contract dropped 0.29%, the SSE 50 futures (IH) main contract dropped 0.64%, the CSI 500 futures (IC) main contract rose 0.40%, and the CSI 1000 futures (IM) main contract rose 0.25%. In the bond futures, the 2 - year Treasury bond futures (TS) main contract rose 0.03%, the 5 - year Treasury bond futures (TF) main contract rose 0.05%, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures (T) main contract rose 0.01%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond futures (TL) main contract dropped 0.09%. In terms of capital flow, hot - rolled coil 2605, rebar 2605, and rapeseed oil 2605 had capital inflows, while lithium carbonate 2605, silver 2604, and gold 2602 had capital outflows [5][6]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Copper (Cu)**: Copper futures opened low and moved lower. Supply - side issues included difficulties for smelters to profit from long - term contracts, and by - products like sulfuric acid and gold becoming major profit sources. The refined copper output was expected to decline in January. The merger negotiation between Rio Tinto and Glencore might affect the global copper supply. Demand from end - users was strong, but the copper products sector was cautious. Copper inventory increased significantly. Although the market's expectation of copper being included in the tariff scope weakened, copper futures were still prone to rise due to tight supply [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It opened high and hit the daily limit down. In December 2025, the output was 99,000 tons, a 3.0% month - on - month increase. The weekly inventory decreased slightly. The demand from energy - storage batteries remained strong, but the market was pressured by the expected increase in supply from the recycling end. The government's adjustment of the export tax - rebate policy for batteries might impact the market. The strong situation of lithium carbonate remained unchanged, but the market was volatile [10]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan in February and March 2026. The EIA data showed an unexpected increase in US crude and gasoline inventories. US crude production decreased slightly but remained near the historical high. Geopolitical factors such as the situation in Iran and the US - India - Russia oil trade relationship affected the market. The market was worried about demand, and the supply was in an oversupply situation. The price was expected to fluctuate and consolidate [11][13]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt production rate increased slightly this week, but the expected production in January 2026 decreased compared to the previous month and the same period last year. The downstream construction was restricted by funds and weather. The inventory rate of asphalt refineries continued to rise. The geopolitical situation in Venezuela affected the supply of raw materials for domestic asphalt production. The price was expected to fluctuate, and an inverse spread strategy was recommended [14][16]. - **PP**: After the New Year's Day holiday, the downstream PP operating rate decreased slightly. The PP enterprise operating rate remained stable at a relatively low level. The cost decreased due to the easing of the Iran situation. The supply increased with new capacity coming on - stream. The downstream demand was limited before the Spring Festival. The market was expected to fluctuate within a range, and the L - PP spread was expected to narrow [17]. - **Plastic**: The plastic operating rate decreased slightly. The downstream PE operating rate decreased, and the demand from the agricultural film sector continued to decline. The cost decreased with the easing of the Iran situation. The supply increased with new capacity coming on - stream. The market was expected to fluctuate within a range, and the L - PP spread was expected to narrow [18][19]. - **PVC**: The upstream calcium carbide price was stable. The PVC operating rate was basically stable, but the downstream operating rate decreased. The export orders decreased, and the social inventory continued to increase. The cancellation of the export tax - rebate policy might stimulate a rush - to - export phenomenon. The 03 - 05 contracts were expected to fluctuate strongly [20]. - **Coking Coal**: Coking coal opened low and moved higher but declined during the day. The coking coal options were listed on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. The supply from imported coal decreased, while domestic production increased. The inventory transferred from upstream to downstream. The demand from steel mills and coking enterprises was expected to increase during the winter storage period, but the upward momentum was limited due to weak macro - sentiment. The price was expected to fluctuate widely [22]. - **Urea**: Urea opened low and moved higher but declined during the day. The market trading was not active, and the downstream was resistant to high prices. The daily output was expected to remain above 200,000 tons. The agricultural demand increased, and the industrial demand from compound fertilizer and melamine factories also rose. The inventory decreased. The price was expected to adjust at a high level in the short term [23].