Group 1 - The Trump administration has recently made significant concessions to China by lifting export restrictions on high-tech products such as chip design software, ethane, and jet engines, indicating a shift in trade policy [1][3][8] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has called for China to address issues related to rare earth materials, further emphasizing the administration's need to negotiate rather than maintain a hardline stance [1][3] - Vietnam has signed a "tiered tariff agreement" with the U.S., which imposes a 20% tariff on goods exported to the U.S. and a 40% tariff on goods transshipped from China through Vietnam, reflecting the pressure from the Trump administration [5][11][15] Group 2 - The reduction of tariffs from 46% to 20% for Vietnam appears to be a victory, but it may lead to increased competition from U.S. goods, potentially harming local Vietnamese businesses [7][11] - The U.S. plans to send letters to over 170 countries detailing the tariffs they will face, with expected rates between 20% and 30%, indicating a more structured approach to trade negotiations [7][8] - Vietnam's strategy to quickly sign an agreement with the U.S. may backfire, as it could serve as a template for the U.S. to impose similar terms on other countries, undermining Vietnam's position in the region [13][15][17]

另外，美国还放宽了光刻机、核材料等出口管制，多家中企被移出实体清单。 而相对应的，是美国对于其他国家在关税上的步步紧逼，特朗普甚至扬言，将不再谈判，直接给各国设 立对等关税税率。 特朗普的变化，真是判若两人。 特朗普，面对中国，从咄咄逼人到眼神清澈，从嘴炮连天到谨言慎行，一场关税战，让他变 得务实起来 最近，在贸易和关税上，特朗普政府对中方越来越务实。 这几天，美国解禁了对华的芯片设计软件、解除了乙烷的出口限制、解除了大飞机的关键零部件出口禁 令。 现在的他，面对中方，不再是那个咄咄逼人"美国国王"，而是一个务实成熟的政治人物。 而面对他的西方盟友和其他国家，他还是那个说一不二、话不投机就掀桌的王。 回顾贸易战和关税战的历史，我们大概就能体会特朗普的心路历程：他认清现实了。 那么，问题来了，当初，特朗普为什么非要义无反顾地打这场关税战呢？ 主要原因，还是要追溯到2018年那场贸易战。 当时，特朗普在访华后不久，在中美局势平缓的氛围下，突然向我们发起了一场（偷袭性的）贸易战。 可以说，那次我们相当地猝不及防，经济深受影响，为了缓解压力，不得不和美国开始了艰苦的谈判。 根据协议，美国暂停对上千亿美元中国商品加征新 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the investment philosophy of Gong Hongjia, noted as the "most successful angel investor," emphasizing a focus on the health sector for the next decade [1] - It discusses the significant shift in the social balance sheet, as shared by Guijiang from Xinpu Investment, indicating that traditional investment logic remains unchanged despite market fluctuations [1] - A dialogue from 2019 featuring Stan Druckenmiller and Scott Bessenet is referenced, covering macro analysis methods, the "political bear market" in the U.S., trade wars, and Bitcoin [1] Group 2 - The article mentions a discussion on the underestimated valuation of SpaceX, with Baillie Gifford's growth fund manager elaborating on their investment logic behind a valuation of 2.6 trillion [1] - It includes insights from Eli Lilly's CEO, David Ricks, on the strength of China's new drug development capabilities, particularly in AI innovation and weight-loss medications [1] - Novo Nordisk's CEO discusses the importance of selectively building core competencies, with a focus on future goals in the insulin sector [1] - The article concludes with a statement from Novartis' CEO, Vas Narasimhan, emphasizing the significance of China's innovative drug story [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. will start notifying 10 to 12 countries daily about unilateral tariff rates ranging from 10% to 70% starting July 5, as only a few countries reached consensus with the U.S. during the grace period [1] - India has expressed strong opposition to U.S. tariffs, claiming that they have caused several hundred million dollars in losses to its economy and plans to retaliate with its own tariffs on U.S. goods [8][10] - The trade conflict has escalated between the U.S. and India, with India refusing to open its agricultural market to U.S. products, leading to a standoff over tariffs [12][10] Group 2 - India's economy has been characterized by a challenging environment for foreign investment, leading to a decline in international capital inflow and a return to a more insular economic model [15][19] - Despite being touted as an alternative to China for manufacturing, India's unfavorable conditions for foreign businesses have hindered its growth compared to Vietnam, which has successfully attracted foreign investment [17][19] - The current trade tensions with the U.S. have highlighted India's limited ability to export goods, maintaining a trade deficit while relying on domestic consumption [19][21] Group 3 - India's agricultural sector remains crucial, with a significant portion of its population dependent on it, making it politically sensitive to U.S. demands for market access [10][21] - The historical context shows that while India had a strong industrial foundation, it lagged behind China in economic development due to a focus on agriculture and a slower integration into the global economy [23][24] - Recent military setbacks, such as the conflict with Pakistan, have raised concerns about India's regional standing and its ability to respond to greater threats in the future [26][28]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index has shown improvement in market sentiment, breaking above the 3400-point mark in late June, leading to optimistic forecasts for the second half of the year [1][2] - The index has previously attempted to breach the 3400-point level multiple times in 2023, with notable attempts in March and May, but faced external pressures such as trade tensions [2] Market Dynamics - The market is expected to operate within a new range of 3400 to 3500 points, with a potential for increased volatility compared to previous ranges, although significant breakthroughs above this range are not anticipated [3][4] - Trading volume is projected to be slightly higher than before but is unlikely to exceed 1.5 trillion yuan [3] Economic Factors - Ongoing uncertainties, including the US-China trade war and geopolitical events, contribute to a lack of stable market conditions, hindering investor confidence and expectations for substantial market gains [4] - The real economy is showing signs of steady recovery, but pressures remain, and the likelihood of new economic policies being introduced in the short term is low [4] Market Behavior - The market is entering a reporting season for half-year results, which may yield both positive and disappointing earnings, potentially affecting investor sentiment [4] - The current market environment exhibits a "two-eight phenomenon," where a few large-cap stocks have performed well while many others lag, complicating the potential for a broad market rally [4] Investment Strategy - A higher bottom in the market indicates that range-bound trading can still be a positive sign for market performance, providing opportunities for individual stock investments [5]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) is prepared to reach a principle agreement with the United States regarding tariffs, but will take countermeasures to protect the European economy if negotiations fail [1][11]. Group 1: Negotiation Status - The trade volume between the EU and the US is the largest globally, amounting to €1.5 trillion annually [2]. - A 90-day negotiation period is deemed insufficient for a detailed agreement, with the goal being a principle agreement to avoid escalating into a trade war [2][7]. - EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič is in Washington to meet with key US officials to reach an agreement by July 9 [3]. Group 2: Current Tariffs and Potential Outcomes - The US currently imposes a 50% tariff on EU steel and aluminum products, a 25% tariff on automobiles, and a 10% baseline tariff on nearly all other goods [4]. - If negotiations do not yield results by July 9, President Trump has threatened to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods [4]. - The EU estimates that US tariffs cover approximately €380 billion worth of products, accounting for 70% of its total exports to the US [4]. Group 3: Challenges in Reaching an Agreement - Experts suggest that while a principle framework agreement may be achievable, detailed negotiations will take significantly longer due to differing economic structures and interests among EU member states [8][9]. - The EU's internal diversity complicates reaching a unified stance on trade terms with the US, especially given varying levels of dependence on US trade among member countries [9]. Group 4: EU's Countermeasures - The EU has prepared a toolbox of countermeasures, including a decision to impose tariffs on €21 billion worth of US imports, with a potential increase to 50% [12]. - A draft proposal for tariffs on €95 billion worth of US goods, including Boeing aircraft and American automobiles, is also in progress [12]. - The EU may utilize its "Anti-Coercion Instrument" to respond to perceived economic coercion from the US, allowing for measures such as restricting US companies' participation in EU public procurement [13].

Core Points - The global trade focus is on the critical negotiations between the US and EU, with a deadline approaching for potential tariffs on EU goods [1][2] - If no agreement is reached by July 9, EU exports to the US could face tariffs up to 50%, while previously suspended retaliatory measures from the EU may also be activated [1] - The US-EU trade relationship is significant, accounting for 30% of global goods trade, with a projected total trade of €1.68 trillion (approximately $1.98 trillion) in 2024 [1] Trade Balance - The EU maintains a trade surplus of €198 billion in goods but faces a service trade deficit of €148 billion, resulting in an overall net surplus of approximately €50 billion [1] - The Trump administration has criticized the trade relationship as "unfair," claiming that the EU benefits at the expense of the US [1] Negotiation Dynamics - Current negotiations are cautious, with EU Commission President von der Leyen stating that a detailed agreement is unlikely within the 90-day grace period, aiming instead for a "principle agreement" [2] - US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has a more conservative outlook on reaching an agreement before the deadline, indicating a wait-and-see approach [2] - Experts believe the likelihood of a comprehensive agreement in the short term is low, with potential outcomes resembling the US-UK trade agreement, focusing on basic terms rather than extensive details [2] Future Considerations - The EU's retaliatory measures will closely follow US actions, with analysts suggesting that unless comprehensive tariffs are implemented by Trump, the EU will refrain from countermeasures [2] - Even if a broad framework agreement is reached, there may still be risks of policy reversals from the US, indicating that negotiations will remain contentious [2]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 04 日 热点品种 热卷： 今日热卷收盘报 3201 元/吨，早盘受螺纹限产传闻带动冲高，午盘因现货疲软回 落，午后窄幅震荡，较前一交易日涨 8 元/吨，涨幅 0.25%，呈现"高开低走后企 稳" 走势。日内成交量 62.37 万手，持仓量 158 万手，资金活跃度弱于螺纹钢。 供应端，钢厂复产提速，供应压力渐显。本周热卷钢厂开工率环比提升 0.3%至 82.5%，鞍钢、本钢检修计划集中在 6 月末收尾，7 月产量预计延续增长。需求 端，制造业淡季深化，终端采购谨慎。7 月进入车企"去库存季"，经销商库存 系数升至 1.8，警戒线为 1.5，叠加新能源车补贴退坡传闻，热卷板材采购量环 比降 12%。受房地产新开工低迷拖累，工程机械订单同比降 8.6%，中厚板类热卷 需求持续萎缩，仅空调、冰箱等因"以旧换新"有少量补库，但实际规模有限。 现货方面，全国热卷现货均价 3213 元/吨，多地日内仅有 10-20 元小涨，终端 "买涨不买跌"特征弱化， ...

在就业数据印证经济韧性的背景下，美国基准股指本周虽以历史新高收官，但期货合约仍下跌约 0.6%。周四收盘后，特朗普再度升级贸易紧张局势，警告称可能自即日起单方面对贸易伙伴征收最高 70%的关税。 欧洲斯托克600指数下跌0.7%，对贸易敏感的矿业和汽车板块领跌。亚洲股市普遍收低，避险情绪推动 黄金上涨0.3%，美元小幅走软。适逢美国独立日假期，美股及国债市场休市。 智通财经APP获悉，美国股指期货周五全线走低，特朗普政府最新关税威胁给标普500指数创纪录的涨 势蒙上阴影。 自4月关税引发的市场波动以来，全球股市已显著反弹。但鉴于贸易战不确定性及其对美国经济与企业 盈利的潜在影响持续存在，部分投资者仍持谨慎态度。"市场疑虑正在悄然滋生，特别是本周冲高之 后，"盛宝英国首席投资策略师尼尔·威尔逊表示，"当前适合适度降低风险敞口，但市场基调尚未发生 根本性转变。" 策略师Mark Cudmore表示："除非出现极端贸易冲突，否则近期积极的基本面因素仍将主导市场。值得 注意的是，机构投资者的看涨情绪已因持续威胁而趋于理性，使其在历史高位的市场中仍保持相对谨慎 持仓。" 美国银行的Michael Hartnett此前表 ...

Group 1: Core Views - Experts believe there is a high likelihood of reaching a principle framework agreement between the US and EU in the short term, but detailed negotiations and implementation will take more time [1][5] - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that the EU is ready to reach a principle agreement on tariffs with the US, but will take countermeasures to protect the European economy if negotiations fail [1][6] - The trade volume between the US and EU is the largest globally, amounting to €1.5 trillion annually [1] Group 2: Current Negotiation Status - EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič is in Washington to meet with US officials, aiming to reach an agreement by July 9 [3] - The US currently imposes a 50% tariff on EU steel and aluminum products, a 25% tariff on automobiles, and a 10% baseline tariff on nearly all other goods [3] - The EU estimates that US tariffs cover approximately €380 billion worth of products, accounting for 70% of its total exports to the US [3] Group 3: Challenges in Reaching an Agreement - Experts indicate that while a principle agreement may be easily reached, detailed negotiations will likely take several months due to deeper underlying conflicts [5] - The economic complementarity between the US and EU is low, making it difficult to find balanced trade solutions [5] - Different EU member states have varying trade structures and interests, complicating the negotiation process [5] Group 4: EU's Contingency Plans - The EU is preparing for the possibility of not reaching a satisfactory agreement and is considering all necessary measures to defend European interests [6][7] - The EU has previously decided to impose tariffs on €21 billion worth of US imports as a response to US tariffs, with a potential plan for an additional €95 billion in tariffs on products like Boeing aircraft and American cars [7] - The EU has tools such as the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI) to respond to perceived economic coercion from the US, allowing for measures like restricting US companies' participation in EU public procurement [7]