根据金融数据服务商东方财富的统计，稀土永磁板块当天上涨7.28%，领涨A股所有板块。个股方面， 九菱科技股价当天录得26.64%的涨幅；银河磁体、新莱福、惠城环保股价收获涨停板(涨幅约20%)。 消息面上，中国商务部近日发布两项关于加强稀土相关物项出口管制的公告，对含有中国成分的部分境 外稀土相关物项以及稀土相关技术实施出口管制。 中新社北京10月13日电 (记者 陈康亮)中国A股13日(周一)"遇冷"，主要股指悉数下跌，但结构上不乏亮 点，稀土永磁、贵金属板块当天逆势上涨，表现亮眼。 据媒体报道，国际金价、银价近期双双迎来历史新高，继10月8日现货黄金价格站上每盎司4000美元 后，10月9日现货白银价格盘中冲上每盎司51美元，均打破历史纪录。 天风证券分析师刘奕町表示，近期金银价格上涨的动力来源于强劲的避险需求，背后驱动因素包括美国 政府停摆以及日本政治动荡等。 就当天A股主要指数的表现而言，截至收盘，上证指数报3889点，跌幅为0.19%；深证成指报13231点， 跌幅为0.93%；创业板指报3078点，跌1.11%。沪深两市成交总额约23548亿元人民币，较上一个交易日 缩量约1609亿元人民币。(完 ...

10月13日，受关税摩擦升级影响，三大指数集体回调，截至午间收盘，有色金属ETF基金(516650)下跌0.18%，细分有色板块表现分化，稀土、黄金概念大 涨，铜铝板块领跌，其持仓股北方稀土涨9.03%，中国稀土涨8.07%，盛和资源涨6.76%；北方铜业领跌7.03%，博威合金、云南铜业、江西铜业等股纷纷重 挫。 流动值得注意的是，近日，有色金属ETF基金(516650)持续获资金布局，近6日连续获资金净申购，累计吸金6.6亿，截至10月10日，最新份额达9.04亿份，最 新规模达15.40亿元，均创成立以来新高。 来源：智通财经 消息面上，近日特朗普发声表示将反制中国的稀土出口管制政策，并"计划大幅提高中国商品的关税"。 国泰海通分析指出，叠加近期美经济数据表现尚 可，市场同时交易降息后海外需求回升逻辑。但近日特朗普发声表示将反制中国的稀土出口管制政策，并"计划大幅提高中国商品的关税"。中美关税博弈再 起，或再度冲击需求预期，市场短期交易或围绕避险需求展开。对于贵金属而言，避险情绪溢价或继续支撑金价，而工业品可能面临阶段性承压，但参考4 月对等关税后价格表现，当前海外需求并未受到实质冲击，短期震荡或是工业 ...

Group 1 - Precious metals continue to rise, with spot gold reaching $4060 and silver surpassing $50.80, driven by historical short squeeze in London and trade tensions [1] - Concerns over potential tariffs on gold and other precious metals from the White House have led to significant increases in platinum and palladium prices [1] - President Trump threatened additional tariffs on China, increasing market risk and supporting demand for safe-haven assets like precious metals [2] Group 2 - The U.S. consumer confidence index fell to a five-month low, while Federal Reserve officials expressed support for further rate cuts, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [2] - The Shanghai gold futures maintain a bullish outlook, with key support at 905, and potential targets of 935/950 [3] - Shanghai silver experienced a significant rise to around 12480, with a bullish trend expected to continue, supported by a key level at 11100 [3]

行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 (8621)23297818× guozy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 10 月 12 日 美国关税冲击再起，关注黄金、稀 土等板块 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报20251006-20251010 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 相关研究 - ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 0.37%，深证成指下跌 1.26%，沪深 300 下跌 0.51%，有色金属（申万） ...

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing a historic surge, with spot silver prices surpassing $50 per ounce for the first time, driven by multiple factors including expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and strong industrial demand [2][3]. Group 1: Price Movement and Market Dynamics - On October 9, the London spot silver price reached a record high of $51.23 per ounce, closing at $50.126 per ounce on October 10, marking a year-to-date increase of 73.53%, outperforming gold's approximately 53% rise [2]. - Analysts attribute the optimistic outlook for silver prices to its dual role as both a financial and industrial metal, particularly in the context of expanding green energy demands [2][5]. - The recent surge in silver prices is closely linked to rising gold prices, with COMEX gold futures and London gold spot prices increasing by 52.8% and 53.1% respectively year-to-date [3]. Group 2: Industrial Demand and Supply Constraints - Silver's unique position as both a precious and industrial metal has led to increased demand in sectors such as photovoltaics and electric vehicles, contributing to its price rise [5][6]. - The global silver market has faced supply shortages for five consecutive years, with current inventories declining, leading to significant premiums in the spot market [6]. - The largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, reported holdings of 15,452 tons as of October 9, an increase of over 1,000 tons since the beginning of the year [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Market Sentiment - Market analysts are optimistic about silver's future price trajectory, with expectations that a weaker dollar and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts will further support precious metal prices [4][6]. - The volatility of the silver market, which is smaller than that of gold, means that price changes can occur more dramatically with less capital [4]. - There are concerns that rising silver prices could eventually dampen industrial demand, as seen in past speculative bubbles [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that gold and rare earths may see a resurgence, while it also highlights opportunities for copper investments during market dips [8][13] - The report emphasizes that the deterioration of fiat currency credit and the need for safe-haven assets are driving gold prices upward, with gold stabilizing above $4,000 [8][13] - The upgrade of export controls on rare earths is seen as a strategic catalyst, potentially enhancing the value of the sector [14] - The report expresses confidence in the mid-term rise of copper prices due to fundamental supply-demand changes, recommending investors to look for opportunities in the copper sector [15][16] Summary by Sections 1. Non-Ferrous Metals - Gold prices are expected to rise due to deteriorating fiat currency credit and increased demand for safe-haven assets [8][13] - The rare earth sector is poised for a strategic boost following the upgrade of export controls, which may lead to higher domestic prices [14] - The copper market is anticipated to experience a mid-term price increase driven by supply constraints and rising demand from sectors like electric vehicles and data centers [15][16] 2. Steel Industry - The steel industry's profitability is under short-term pressure, with costs providing some support for steel prices [17] - Iron and steel production has seen slight declines, with traditional peak season demand yet to be validated [19] - Overall steel inventories are rising, indicating a potential oversupply situation [22] - Steel prices are maintaining a weak and stable trend, with notable price differentiation among various steel products [36] 3. New Energy Metals - Lithium production in August 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 46.54%, indicating strong supply growth [40] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales showing substantial year-on-year growth [44] - Prices for lithium and cobalt are stable, while nickel prices have shown slight increases [50][51]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry and specific companies within the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting strong performance and favorable market conditions [8]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that the recent increase in gold prices is driven by heightened risk aversion due to renewed US-China trade tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4][8]. - Industrial metals are expected to continue strengthening due to supply disruptions and robust demand, particularly in copper and aluminum [2][3]. - Energy metals, particularly lithium and cobalt, are projected to perform well due to strong demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage markets [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry and Stock Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.80%, while the SW Non-ferrous Index increased by 11.89% during the reporting period [1]. - Precious metals, including gold and silver, saw significant price increases of 6.48% and 2.48%, respectively [1]. 2. Base Metals 2.1 Price and Stock Correlation - The report notes that aluminum prices are supported by a seasonal increase in demand and controlled inventory levels, with a current price of 20,950 RMB/ton [27]. - Copper prices are influenced by supply disruptions and a favorable macroeconomic environment, with a recent price of 10,374 USD/ton [12][41]. 2.2 Industrial Metals - The report highlights that aluminum production is expected to remain low due to increased direct supply ratios and seasonal demand, which supports price stability [25][26]. - Copper supply is under pressure from production cuts by major mining companies, which is expected to sustain higher prices [2][41]. 2.3 Lead, Tin, and Nickel - Lead prices have shown resilience due to tight supply conditions, with recent prices around 20,026 USD/ton [58]. - Nickel prices are fluctuating due to regulatory changes in Indonesia and supply concerns, currently priced at 122,180 RMB/ton [60]. 3. Precious Metals and Minor Metals 3.1 Precious Metals - Gold prices have surged due to strong safe-haven demand, with a recent price of 4,035.50 USD/oz, reflecting a 6.48% increase [14][74]. - Silver prices are also rising, driven by industrial demand and investment interest, currently at 47.52 USD/oz [14][74]. 3.2 Energy Metals - Lithium demand remains robust, with prices supported by strong consumption in electric vehicles and energy storage, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate priced at 71,300 RMB/ton [14][3]. - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with current prices around 331,500 RMB/ton [3][14]. 4. Key Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt, citing strong earnings forecasts and favorable market conditions [4][8].

Core Viewpoint - The fluctuations in gold prices should not be interpreted as signs of a market crash, as they are part of normal market behavior driven by underlying economic factors [1][3]. Market Dynamics - Concerns about gold "crashing" often stem from fears of buying at high prices, but gold is fundamentally supported by global monetary credit and demand for safe-haven assets [3]. - Recent geopolitical tensions led to a temporary increase in gold prices, followed by a correction, which is a normal market reaction rather than a crash [3]. Economic Indicators - A significant change in the underlying logic that supports gold prices would be required for a true market crash, such as aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, a robust global economy reducing the need for gold as a safe haven, or a sudden strengthening of the US dollar [3][4]. - Current trends indicate that central banks are still purchasing gold, and market speculation is focused on potential interest rate cuts rather than hikes, suggesting continued support for gold prices [4]. Investment Strategy - Investors should clarify their motivations for buying gold: whether for short-term gains or as a long-term asset protection strategy [4]. - For long-term investors, monitoring Federal Reserve interest rates, global risk sentiment, and central bank gold purchases is more relevant than short-term price fluctuations [4].

记者丨江佩霞 见习记者张嘉钰 编辑丨张楠 视频编辑丨许婷婷 设计丨郑嘉琪 一场席卷全球的避险浪潮，正在将贵金属市场推向沸腾的顶点。 在全球多重风险因素叠加下，黄金价格突破每盎司4000美元的历史性关口。 截至10月10日，据21财经工作室统计，自2022年以来，国际金价累计涨幅已达123%，展现出强劲的上 扬势头。进入2025年，这一涨势愈发迅猛，年内涨幅已突破53%。尤其值得关注的是，金价在今年4月 22日首次突破3500美元/盎司大关后，仅用169天便一举冲上4000美元关口，如此惊人的涨速，堪称"火 箭式"上涨，引发全球投资者高度关注。 而市场的"沸腾"并不仅限于黄金。现货白银涨势更为迅猛，年内涨幅超70%跑赢黄金，价格破50美元。 据21财经工作室测算，若投资者在一年前购入100g黄金并持有不动，一年收益高达3万元，收益率妥妥 超50%。 100克黄金售价突破11万 图源/21财经客户端 记者10月11日摄 金价持续飙升让没赶上趟的人"肉疼"——买金饰的成本涨得太猛了。 像准备结婚买"三金"的年轻人、想给长辈买金镯当礼物的人，可能感触最明显：以某品牌金饰为例，去 年同期100克金饰预算8万元左右就能拿 ...

Core Viewpoint - A global wave of risk aversion is driving the precious metals market to new heights, with gold prices surpassing $4000 per ounce for the first time in history, reflecting a cumulative increase of 123% since 2022 and a 53% rise in 2025 alone [1][11]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - As of October 10, 2023, gold prices have shown a remarkable increase, with a "rocket-like" surge from $3500 to $4000 per ounce in just 169 days [1]. - The price of gold jewelry has also risen significantly, with the cost of 100 grams of gold jewelry now approaching 110,000 yuan, an increase of over 30,000 yuan compared to the previous year [7][4]. - Despite the rising gold prices, foot traffic in gold stores has decreased, indicating a potential shift in consumer behavior due to higher costs [8]. Group 2: Factors Supporting Gold Price Increase - The primary drivers of the current gold price surge include increased gold purchases by central banks and a significant rise in gold ETF holdings, with global central banks net purchasing gold for 19 consecutive quarters [11][14]. - In September 2023, global gold ETFs saw a record inflow of $17.3 billion, marking the highest monthly inflow ever [14]. - Predictions suggest that gold could reach $4500 per ounce in the first quarter of 2024, with some analysts forecasting a long-term bull market for gold, potentially pushing prices to $5000 per ounce within the next decade [18]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - A majority of central banks (95%) plan to continue increasing their gold reserves in the coming year, reflecting a strong bullish sentiment in the market [18]. - Analysts from various institutions, including Goldman Sachs and Citic Securities, are optimistic about gold's future price trajectory, citing geopolitical tensions and a weak dollar as supportive factors [18]. - However, there are concerns that a resolution of global geopolitical tensions could lead to a decline in gold prices, highlighting the dual nature of market sentiment [18].