Group 1: Price Trends - Food prices have been in negative territory for several months, but consumer goods are driving a rebound in CPI, marking the first divergence since food prices turned negative[1] - In September, the PPI for non-ferrous, black, and energy sectors all saw year-on-year increases, with black PPI showing the largest rise[1] - The core CPI reached a new high for the year at 1%, indicating potential structural policy tools may be more effective moving forward[1] Group 2: Financial Data Insights - The divergence between social financing (社融) growth and loan balance growth that began in December 2024 appears to have ended, suggesting a return to synchronized growth[1] - The M2-M1 spread has narrowed further, indicating an increase in the liquidity of funds, which historically correlates with positive stock market performance[1] - In September, M2 growth slowed while M1 growth increased, reflecting a more active financial environment[1] Group 3: Economic Policy Implications - Current inflation levels are under pressure, necessitating a continuation of loose monetary policy, as both CPI and PPI remain in negative territory[1] - The government's CPI target for 2025 is set at around 2%, the lowest since 2003, indicating a cautious approach to inflation management[1] - The ongoing anti-involution policies are expected to support PPI recovery, with potential for CPI to turn positive in Q4 2025[1] Group 4: Risk Factors - Geopolitical risks and unexpected increases in international oil prices are highlighted as potential threats to economic stability[1]

Report Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Consolidating with oscillations [1] - Alumina: Profit compression [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] Core Views - The report provides updated fundamental data for aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including prices, trading volumes, open interests, spreads, cost - profit situations, and inventory levels in both the futures and spot markets [1]. - It also presents macro - economic data such as China's September CPI, PPI, and new social financing, and analyzes their implications [3]. - The trend intensities for aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are 0, - 1, and 0 respectively [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Electrolytic Aluminum - The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 20,910, with a night - session closing price of 20,885. The LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,745 [1]. - Trading volume and open interest of the SHFE aluminum main contract decreased compared to previous periods. The LME aluminum 3M trading volume also showed changes [1]. - The LME canceled warrant ratio was 19.50%, and the LME aluminum cash - 3M spread was 6.66 [1]. - The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was - 55, and the cost of the near - month long and first - continuous short inter - delivery spread arbitrage was 70.58 [1]. Alumina - The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 2,797, with a night - session closing price of 2,780 [1]. - Trading volume and open interest of the SHFE alumina main contract had different trends compared to previous periods [1]. - The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was 7, and the cost of the near - month long and first - continuous short inter - delivery spread arbitrage was 22.15 [1]. Aluminum Alloy - The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,410, with a night - session closing price of 20,425 [1]. - Trading volume and open interest of the aluminum alloy main contract changed compared to previous periods [1]. - The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was - 45, and the spot premium was 30 [1]. Spot Market Electrolytic Aluminum - The pre - baked anode market price, aluminum rod processing fees, and aluminum ingot scrap - refined spread showed different changes [1]. - Electrolytic aluminum enterprises' profit was 4,748.93, and the import profit and loss of aluminum spot and 3M had different values [1]. - The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 64.20 million tons, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory was 49.90 million tons [1]. Alumina - The domestic average price of alumina was 2,974, and the alumina prices at Lianyungang in different units had different trends [1]. - Alumina enterprises in Shanxi had a loss of - 42, and the prices of imported bauxite from different regions changed slightly [1]. Aluminum Alloy - The theoretical profit of ADC12 was 180, and the price of Baotai ADC12 was 20,600 [1]. - The difference between Baotai ADC12 and A00 was - 320, and the total inventory of three regions was 49,125 [1]. Caustic Soda - The price of Shaanxi ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda (32% converted to 100%) was 2,830 [1]. Macroeconomic Data - In September, China's CPI year - on - year decline narrowed to 0.3%, core CPI returned to 1% for the first time in 19 months, and PPI year - on - year decline narrowed to 2.3% [3]. - China's new social financing in September was 3.53 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap reached a new low of 1.2 percentage points [3].

Macro Analysis - The core CPI has risen to +1.0% year-on-year due to increases in gold prices and durable goods, but overall CPI remains negative due to the drag from pork prices [2] - CPI is expected to turn positive in Q4 as the high base effect from the previous year dissipates [2] - PPI's year-on-year decline continues to narrow, influenced by the high base effect and the promotion of "anti-involution" [2] Credit Market Insights - In September 2025, new RMB loans increased by 700 billion, marking the second consecutive month of growth [3] - The credit growth indicates a potential upward trend for Q4, suggesting that the market is preparing for increased lending activity [3] Bond Market Overview - The overall CPI showed slight improvement in September, with core CPI rising for five consecutive months [4] - PPI remained flat month-on-month, with a decline in manufacturing prices [4] - The bond market outlook is optimistic due to a relatively loose funding environment, with a target yield for 10Y government bonds set at 1.7% [4] Banking Sector Analysis - In September, the intensity of loan issuance showed a seasonal rebound, with new social financing at 3.53 trillion, down 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 8.7% [6] - The M1 money supply continues to rebound, while M2 shows a slight decline due to a high base effect, indicating an increase in monetary activity [6] Company Research: Xinhan New Materials - Xinhan New Materials focuses on the R&D, production, and sales of aromatic ketone products, with projected net profits of 79 million, 85 million, and 100 million RMB for 2025-2027 [7] - The company is expected to experience high growth due to new capacity coming online, leading to an "overweight" rating [7] Company Research: Xiaocaiyuan - Xiaocaiyuan is a leading brand in the affordable dining sector, aligning with consumer trends for quality and price [8] - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 750 million, 922 million, and 1.132 billion RMB, with corresponding EPS of 0.64, 0.78, and 0.96 RMB [8] - The company is rated "overweight" due to its supply chain advantages and potential for margin improvement [8]

Inflation Overview - In September, the CPI year-on-year growth rate was lower than the Wind consensus expectation, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, up 0.1 percentage points from August[1] - The CPI year-on-year decreased by 0.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from August, while the core CPI rose by 1.0%, also up 0.1 percentage points from August[2] - Food prices significantly dragged down the CPI year-on-year, with a decline of 4.4%, impacting the CPI by approximately 0.83 percentage points[5] Price Index Trends - The PPI remained flat month-on-month in September, with a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, which is an improvement of 0.6 percentage points from August[14] - The decline in PPI was primarily driven by production materials, which fell by 2.4% year-on-year, while living materials decreased by 1.7%[14] - The PPI's year-on-year decline has narrowed for two consecutive months, indicating a potential bottoming out, with expectations for a recovery in PPI growth by Q2 2026[18] Sector-Specific Insights - Durable consumer goods prices showed a continuous upward trend, with household appliances and communication tools increasing by 5.5% and 1.5% year-on-year, respectively[6] - The prices of precious metal consumer goods have seen significant increases due to rising international gold prices, while energy prices have been negatively impacted by falling international oil prices[7] - Seasonal factors have heavily influenced service prices, which saw a month-on-month decline of 0.3%[6] Future Outlook - The CPI is expected to maintain an upward trend in Q4, influenced by low base effects and the impact of traditional consumption peaks combined with the release of government subsidies[7] - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies are anticipated to improve supply-demand dynamics in certain industries, contributing to a sustained increase in PPI growth[18] - Risks include the potential for global inflation to rise again, a rapid slowdown in the European and American economies, and increasing international complexities[28]

Group 1 - The consumer price index (CPI) showed a slight increase in September, with a month-on-month rise of 0.1%, marking a shift from the previous month where it was flat [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1% year-on-year, the highest increase in 19 months, indicating a steady recovery in consumer prices [1][3] - Food prices increased by 0.7% month-on-month, with seasonal price rises observed in fresh vegetables, eggs, fresh fruits, lamb, and beef, while pork and aquatic product prices decreased due to sufficient supply [1][2] Group 2 - The producer price index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month for two consecutive months, with a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, but the rate of decline has narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [3][4] - Improvements in supply-demand structure have led to price stabilization in certain industries, such as coal processing and black metal smelting, with some prices showing an upward trend [3][4] - The construction of a unified national market has contributed to a reduction in the year-on-year decline of prices in various sectors, with notable improvements in industries like coal mining and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the slight improvement in CPI and the continuous rise in core CPI, indicating a mixed economic outlook [4][5]. - In September 2025, the CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, showing a 0.1 percentage point improvement from August, while the core CPI increased by 1.0% year-on-year [4][5]. - The PPI also showed a narrowing decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.3% in September, compared to a 2.9% decline in August, indicating potential stabilization in industrial prices [4][6]. Group 2 - The bond market is experiencing a divergence in yield trends, with short-term yields remaining stable while long-term yields have increased significantly, leading to a steeper yield curve [7]. - The current market conditions are viewed as optimistic for the bond market, with a recommendation to gradually shift from short to long duration investments, maintaining a 10Y government bond yield central fluctuation point at 1.7% [7]. - In the convertible bond market, the China Securities Convertible Bond Index has seen a year-to-date increase of 15.7% as of October 14, 2025, but current valuations are near historical highs, suggesting potential volatility ahead [8].

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on October 15, with a fixed rate and quantity tendering, amounting to 43.5 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the bid and winning amount [1] - There were no reverse repos maturing on that day, resulting in a net injection of 43.5 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Liquidity Conditions - The interbank market remains abundant, with overnight repurchase rates for deposit institutions stabilizing at a low level of 1.31% [3] - Non-bank institutions are borrowing overnight against credit bonds at rates below 1.4% [3] - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit is at 1.67%, unchanged from the previous day [7] Group 3: Monetary Statistics - As of the end of September, the broad money supply (M2) was 335.38 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.4% [13] - The narrow money supply (M1) was 113.15 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.2% [13] - The cash in circulation (M0) was 13.58 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.5% [13] - The weighted average interest rate for new corporate loans in September was approximately 3.1%, down about 40 basis points year-on-year [13] Group 4: Economic Indicators - China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% year-on-year in September, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.3% year-on-year [14] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of expansion [14] Group 5: Bond Market Developments - The Ministry of Finance successfully issued 11 billion yuan of government bonds in Hong Kong [18] - Recent negative events in the bond market include rating downgrades and payment delays for various issuers, indicating potential risks in the sector [19]

《 人民日报 》（ 2025年10月16日 06 版） (责编：袁勃、赵欣悦) 关注公众号：人民网财经 CPI同比下降0.3%，降幅比上月收窄0.1个百分点。分类别看，食品价格下降4.4%，降幅比上月扩大0.1 个百分点，影响CPI同比下降约0.83个百分点，是影响CPI同比下降的主要因素。 PPI环比连续两个月持平。国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟分析，本月PPI环比运行的主要特点：一 是供需结构改善带动部分行业价格明显企稳，二是输入性因素影响国内石油相关行业价格环比下降。 本报北京10月15日电 （记者刘志强）15日，国家统计局发布的数据显示：9月份，消费市场运行总体平 稳，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.1%，同比下降0.3%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上 涨1.0%，涨幅连续第五个月扩大。工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比继续持平；同比下降2.3%，降 幅比上月收窄0.6个百分点。 CPI环比由上月持平转为上涨0.1%。其中，食品价格环比上涨0.7%，涨幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点，影响 CPI环比上涨约0.13个百分点。 ...

Core Insights - The consumer price index (CPI) showed a slight increase in September, with a month-on-month rise of 0.1%, marking a shift from the previous month where it was flat. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1% year-on-year, the highest increase in 19 months, indicating a recovery in consumer prices [1][2][3] CPI Analysis - The year-on-year CPI decreased by 0.3%, but the decline was less severe than the previous month, narrowing by 0.1 percentage points. The drop was primarily due to the "carryover effect" from previous price changes, with food prices falling by 4.4% [2][3] - Food prices saw a month-on-month increase of 0.7%, driven by seasonal rises in fresh vegetables, eggs, fruits, lamb, and beef, while pork and aquatic product prices decreased due to sufficient supply [1][2] PPI Insights - The producer price index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month for two consecutive months, with a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, which is a reduction of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. This decline is attributed to a low comparison base from the previous year and the positive effects of macroeconomic policies [3][4] - Certain industries, such as coal processing and black metal smelting, have shown price stabilization, with some experiencing price increases for two consecutive months [3][4] Market Dynamics - The ongoing construction of a unified national market has contributed to a narrowing of year-on-year price declines in various sectors. Improved market competition and capacity management have led to better price stability in industries like coal and photovoltaic equipment [4] - The upgrading of industrial structures and the release of consumer potential have driven price increases in specific sectors, such as aircraft manufacturing and specialized electronic materials, reflecting a shift towards higher-quality and upgraded consumption [4]

Group 1 - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month but decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 1.0%, marking the first return to a 1% increase in nearly 19 months [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month and decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [2] - The decline in CPI year-on-year was primarily due to a drop in food prices, which fell by 4.4%, contributing approximately 0.83 percentage points to the CPI decrease [1][2] Group 2 - The narrowing of the PPI decline is attributed to the effects of macroeconomic policies and improvements in market competition, leading to a reduction in price declines in certain industries [2] - The construction of a unified national market and the upgrading of industrial structures are contributing to positive price changes in related sectors [2] - The recent stabilization of industrial prices and the rebound in PPI and the Purchasing Price Index for Raw Materials (PPIRM) indicate early signs of success in efforts to stabilize prices [3]