Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government's imposition of tariffs is impacting the daily lives of American citizens across various sectors, from skincare products to clothing and household items, leading to potential price increases and shortages of essential goods [1][3]. Group 1: Impact on Daily Life - A recent analysis by The New York Times highlights the significant role of Chinese-manufactured products in American households, indicating that many daily items could face price hikes or shortages without these imports [3]. - An example is provided of a woman named Betty, whose daily life is heavily reliant on Chinese-made products, including kitchen utensils, beauty tools, and alarm clocks, with 82% of kitchen knives, 99% of toasters, and 71% of hair dryers imported from China [5]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Professor Justin Wolfers from the University of Michigan warns that ongoing tariff policies will create an uncertain economic future for the U.S., affecting trade relations and the economic lives of Americans [7]. - The tariffs, which are significantly higher than those during the previous administration, will impact all goods from all countries, suggesting a comprehensive effect on consumer prices and availability [7]. Group 3: Current Tariff Situation - As of April 9, all goods shipped from China are subject to a 145% tariff, prompting many businesses to reconsider their purchasing strategies in light of these changes [9]. - President Trump, in a recent interview, expressed a lack of concern regarding a potential economic recession, suggesting that consumer needs may be overestimated [10][12].

1. 5月5日(周一)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐跌。截至发稿，道指期货跌0.62%，标普500指数期货跌0.77%，纳指期货跌 0.95%。 盘前市场动向 4000美元!高盛重申"金牛"预测。受美元走软支撑，黄金周一走强。截至发稿，黄金期货涨超2%，报约3325美元/盎司;黄金现货 涨超2%，报约3317美元/盎司。黄金价格今年迄今已飙升近四分之一，4月曾触及每盎司3500美元以上的纪录高位，但在过去几 周有所回落，早些时候的上涨主要由特朗普极具破坏性的贸易和地缘政治政策引发的避险买盘、投机性需求和全球央行的买盘 推动。周一，高盛在一份报告中称，黄金将继续跑赢白银，央行需求强劲是推高金银价格比的一个因素。因此，该行预计白银 不会赶上目前正在持续的黄金涨势。高盛还表示，如果经济衰退发生，估计ETF资金流入的加速将推动黄金价格到年底达到 3880美元。该行重申对黄金的结构性看涨观点，基本预期年底金价为每盎司3700美元，到2026年中期则达4000美元。 欧佩克+增产暴击油价至四年低位，华尔街紧急下调预期。沙特主导的激进举措正在重塑全球石油市场格局——通过欧佩克+大 幅增产，这一行动正迫使华尔街分析师纷纷下调油 ...

那么，究竟又发生了什么？分析人士认为，一方面，最近市场的反弹并不是因为基本面发生了改变，恰好相 反，是因为市场对关税谈判情绪的反应。而事实上，随着关税水平很难再回到从前，经济基本面中短期亦是如 此；另一方面，特朗普的不确定性依然在增加，今天他又授权加征电影关税。而从美日谈判来看，关税谈判的 难度极大。同时，特朗普亦称，可以接受美国经济"暂时陷入衰退"。特朗普认为，美国最终会表现得非常出 色。 全球资本市场风云变幻！ 突然之间，大部分的投资品都在跌。今天，亚太市场中国台湾股指大跌超1.2%收盘，澳大利亚股指亦结束连 涨，杀跌近1%。美国股指亦是全线杀跌，截至发稿，纳指期货跌幅近1%。国际油价更是大跳水，布伦特原油 7月期货周一早盘一度暴跌4%，跌至58.5美元/桶。虚拟货币也几乎是全线走弱。 石油暴跌 在OPEC+同意连续第二个月增产后，美国原油期货北京时间今天早上开盘暴跌逾4%。美国原油开盘后不久， 布伦特原油下跌2.49美元，至每桶55.8美元，跌幅达4.27%。全球基准布伦特原油下跌2.39美元，至每桶58.9美 元，跌幅达3.9%。今年油价已下跌逾20%。截至发稿，布伦特原油跌幅收窄至1.45%，WTI ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs estimates that if an economic recession occurs, accelerated inflows into ETFs will drive gold prices to reach $3,880 by the end of the year [1] Group 1 - The potential economic recession is a significant factor influencing investment strategies [1] - Increased ETF inflows are expected to be a key driver for gold price appreciation [1] - The projected gold price of $3,880 reflects a bullish outlook in the context of economic uncertainty [1]

近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周一(5月5日)欧市早盘，现货黄金维持日内反弹走势，目前金价位于3265美元/盎司附近，日内上涨逾25 美元。归因于贸易不确定性和美联储决议前的仓位调整，美元重回跌势。黄金买家大举回归，金价目标 瞄准3300美元/盎司。作为传统避险资产的黄金价格也受到中东地缘政治紧张局势加剧以及俄罗斯和乌 克兰之间紧张局势的支撑。本交易日，投资者将聚焦美国4月ISM非制造业PMI，预计这一重量级将引 发市场大行情。美国4月ISM非制造业PMI将提供有关特朗普宣布关税后企业行为的更多见解。该数据 预计将进一步下滑，反映出在贸易政策不确定性的情况下，企业越来越谨慎。 基本面上，美国彭博社周一报道称，美国总统特朗普计划对所有海外制作的电影征收100%的关税，从 而升级了贸易战。特朗普在其社交平台Truth Social上写道："我授权商务部和美国贸易代表立即启动程 序，对所有在国外制作的进入美国的电影征收100%的关税。我们要让电影重新在美国拍摄！虽然，上 周五公布的非农等数据，整体好于预期，美国3月工厂订单月率也明显高于前值，显示经济仍显健康， 这减弱了此前公布的美国一 ...

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street's top forecasters warn that tariffs may trigger an economic recession, yet the stock market appears largely unaffected by these warnings [1][2]. Economic Predictions - Goldman Sachs estimates a 45% chance of recession within the next 12 months, while Apollo Global Management's chief economist places it at 90% [2]. - The S&P 500 index recently completed its longest nine-day rally since 2004, rising approximately 10% and recovering from a significant drop following President Trump's tariff announcement [2]. - Year-to-date, the S&P 500 index is down only 3.1%, indicating limited investor concern about future economic conditions [2]. Consumer Behavior and Economic Indicators - Despite ongoing uncertainties, consumer confidence has not significantly changed, although potential risks remain [4]. - Economists suggest that even low tariff levels could have a cascading effect on the U.S. economy, impacting consumer spending, business investment, and employment [4]. - A recent report indicated that inflation-adjusted household spending surged by 0.7% in March, exceeding expectations, possibly driven by pre-tariff purchasing behavior [4]. - Visa reported no signs of overall weakness in credit card spending as of April 21 [4]. Market Sentiment and Interest Rates - Raymond James' chief investment officer emphasizes the importance of monitoring credit card data as a potential warning signal for economic conditions [5]. - Goldman Sachs economists believe the impact of tariffs may take two to three months to reflect in inflation data, predicting a slowdown in consumer spending soon [5]. - Vanguard has lowered its U.S. economic growth forecast for the year to below 1%, citing tariffs and policy uncertainties, and expects inflation to reach 4% by year-end [5]. Stock Market Dynamics - While overall stock performance is strong, there are underlying concerns, with a few large tech companies driving the rebound [6]. - Defensive sectors like consumer staples and utilities are performing well, while economically sensitive sectors such as energy and discretionary spending lag behind [6]. - Interest rate futures traders are now confident that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least three times this year, with a 63% chance of recession predicted by market bettors, up from 40% in March [6]. - The excess CAPE yield, a measure of risk compensation for holding stocks over bonds, was only 1.8% at the end of April, about half of its 50-year average [6].

金十数据5月5日讯，据英国金融时报报道，在通常的销售旺季，美国房地产市场正显示出疲软迹象。由 于与关税相关的经济不确定性和抵押贷款利率居高不下，潜在购房者推迟了购房计划。房地产经纪公司 Redfin表示，自2019年以来，房屋在市场上停留的时间最长。美国全国房地产经纪人协会本月表示，构 成美国房地产市场大部分的现房销售，创下2009年3月以来的最低水平。新屋销售略有上升，但不足以 抵消经济放缓的影响。美国抵押贷款银行家协会本周表示，在截至4月25日的当季，购房抵押贷款申请 连续三周下降。"楼市不温不火表明消费者普遍感到谨慎，"房地产咨询公司Cotality首席分析师Selma Hepp表示。"美国GDP的70%取决于消费者支出，这可能很快导致经济衰退。" 高利率和关税拖累下，美国房地产在本该是销售旺季时出现疲软 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market shows resilience with non-farm payrolls increasing by 177,000 in April, surpassing Bloomberg's median forecast of 135,000 [1] - The unemployment rate remains steady at 4.2%, while labor force participation rose to 62.6% [1] - The U.S. economy contracted by 0.3% in Q1, which is weaker than economists' predictions, but the impact of tariffs has distorted data, leading to a significant increase in imports by 41% [2][3] Group 2 - The trade war has led companies to halt investment plans, potentially reducing new job opportunities and affecting consumer confidence [2] - The Trump administration's tariffs are expected to create inflationary pressures, making it crucial for bilateral negotiations to reach agreements quickly [2] - The Eurozone GDP grew by 0.4% in Q1, outperforming analyst expectations, but the trade war has negatively impacted business and consumer confidence in Europe [3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates, with Chairman Powell likely to emphasize that the rate path depends on future economic conditions [4] - Market expectations indicate a low probability of rate cuts in May, with a greater chance of cuts in June and July [3][4] - The Fed is concerned about policy uncertainty, particularly regarding the impact of tariffs on prices, which may delay any rate adjustments until September [4]

5月5日，离岸人民币盘中一度升穿7.20关口，为去年11月以来首次，创近半年以来新高。 Wind行情显示，上周五离岸人民币开启大涨，日内上涨近700点。本周一上涨继续，离岸人民币一度攀升至7.1891，创去年11月12日以来新高。 | < W | 美元指数 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | USDX.FX | | | | | | 99.7490 | 前收 | | | 99.9947 开盘 | | | -0.2934 | -0.29% | 英品 | 99.7490 | 99.7490 买入 | | | 最高 | 100.0524 | 今年来 | -8.05% | 20 日 日 -3.63% | | | 最低 | 99.6258 1.42% | 10 日 | | 60 日 -7.92% | | | 分时 | | | 五日 日K | | | | 晉加 | | | | | | | 100.4590 | | | | | 0.42% | | 100.0424 | | | | | 0.00% | | 99.6258 | | | | | -0.42% | ...