"从逻辑上推演，我坚定相信，只有'东升西落'，中或最赢，没有其他结果。 " "美联储代表的是犹太资本和金融资本利益，而犹太金融资本在西方意识形态中一定占据左翼，而不是 右翼。 所以，在左右翼资深对决的时代背景下，去看在美元资产遭到巨大抛售、美元信用受到危机时，美联储 仍然采取袖手旁观的态度，是可以理解的。" " 中国 未来的 方略主要有几点 ：更加开放，更加平衡，更加市场化。" 以上是中国首席经济学家论坛理事 刘煜辉 在今 天（4月20日）宁波银行私人银行投资策略会中分享的 最新观点。 对于所有事件的分析，都要结合背景回到最底层的目标，去解构其行为逻辑。 刘煜辉用了近两个小时，将特朗普发动的这场仅仅一个星期就已经"到顶"的关税战进行了详细梳理。 从大背景来看，刘煜辉表示这是美西方一场史无前例的"党争"。 特朗普作为西方政治规则下的政治人物，其真实有效的政治时间可能只有一年半，因此， 他的第一性 目标是通过"关税战"向选票基本盘展现承诺，以及巩固权力，并在中选前证明他所代表的右翼势力在美 国权力系统中已经站稳脚跟。 但是，刘煜辉强调，真正决定社会走向的是其背后的资本意志。 因此，从第一性原理角度出发，最终还是要 ...

" 中国 未来的 方略主要有几点 ：更加开放，更加平衡，更加市场化。" 以上是中国首席经济学家论坛理事 刘煜辉 在今 天（4月20日）宁波银行私人银行投资策略会中分享的 最新观点。 对于所有事件的分析，都要结合背景回到最底层的目标，去解构其行为逻辑。 "从逻辑上推演，我坚定相信，只有'东升西落'，中或最赢，没有其他结果。 " 刘煜辉用了近两个小时，将特朗普发动的这场仅仅一个星期就已经"到顶"的关税战进行了详细梳理。 "美联储代表的是犹太资本和金融资本利益，而犹太金融资本在西方意识形态中一定占据左翼，而不是 右翼。 所以，在左右翼资深对决的时代背景下，去看在美元资产遭到巨大抛售、美元信用受到危机时，美联储 仍然采取袖手旁观的态度，是可以理解的。" 从大背景来看，刘煜辉表示这是美西方一场史无前例的"党争"。 特朗普作为西方政治规则下的政治人物，其真实有效的政治时间可能只有一年半，因此， 他的第一性 目标是通过"关税战"向选票基本盘展现承诺，以及巩固权力，并在中选前证明他所代表的右翼势力在美 国权力系统中已经站稳脚跟。 但是，刘煜辉强调，真正决定社会走向的是其背后的资本意志。 因此，从第一性原理角度出发，最终还是要 ...

Summary of Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the Hong Kong stock market and its dynamics, along with insights from the recent Chinese National People's Congress (NPC) sessions. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Performance and Valuation** - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance last week, rebounding significantly after a previous decline. Investors are concerned about the current valuation levels and whether it is a good time to buy. The analysis includes both static and dynamic valuation perspectives to address these concerns [2][4][12]. 2. **Impact of NPC Policies** - The NPC has introduced several policies that have positively influenced market sentiment. Analysts will discuss the implications of these policies on various sectors, particularly real estate [3][41]. 3. **Valuation Comparisons** - The static valuation of the Hang Seng Index and its components, particularly the Hang Seng Tech Index, is compared to historical levels and other global markets. The current valuations are deemed not excessively high, suggesting potential investment opportunities [5][14]. 4. **Dynamic Valuation Insights** - Dynamic valuation metrics indicate that while static valuations appear reasonable, the market sentiment is currently quite optimistic, which could lead to overvaluation if not managed carefully. The analysis emphasizes the importance of investor sentiment and risk premiums in determining market movements [6][12][17]. 5. **Capital Flows and Investor Behavior** - There is a notable influx of southbound capital from mainland investors, which has been a significant driver of market sentiment and pricing. The behavior of different investor types, including international and local investors, is analyzed to understand their impact on market dynamics [9][10][11]. 6. **Sector-Specific Insights** - The technology sector is highlighted as a key area of growth, with expectations that advancements in AI and other technologies will drive investor interest and market performance. The valuation of Chinese tech stocks is compared favorably to their U.S. counterparts, indicating potential for growth [7][14][15]. 7. **Real Estate Market Outlook** - The real estate sector is under scrutiny, with policies aimed at stabilizing the market and addressing supply-demand imbalances. Analysts expect a gradual recovery in the real estate market, supported by government initiatives [35][53]. 8. **Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth** - The fiscal policy for the year is expected to be expansionary, with significant government spending aimed at boosting economic growth. The anticipated fiscal deficit and debt issuance are projected to exceed 10% of GDP, indicating a strong commitment to economic stimulus [27][28][42]. 9. **Long-term Economic Trends** - The focus on enhancing domestic consumption and improving living standards is emphasized as a long-term strategy for economic stability. The government is expected to prioritize investments in technology and infrastructure to support sustainable growth [39][40]. 10. **Market Sentiment and Future Expectations** - The overall market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with expectations for improved performance in the second half of the year as fiscal policies take effect and external economic conditions stabilize. Analysts recommend focusing on sectors that benefit from government support and technological advancements [51][52]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The conference highlighted the importance of monitoring the execution pace of fiscal policies, as past experiences show significant variability in effectiveness across different quarters [32][34]. - The discussion also touched on the potential risks associated with geopolitical tensions and their impact on market dynamics, particularly regarding U.S. monetary policy and its effects on global capital flows [20][24][49].

戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 董事总经理（MD）、首席资产研究官 邮箱：daikang@gf.com.cn 完整内容详见25年4月2日发布的《 【广发资产研究】资产配置如何应对"东升西落"叙事？ 》（点击标题查看原文） | | | | 全天候配置策略(The All Weather Strategy) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 低风险偏好 | | 中等风险偏好 | | 高等风险偏好 | | | 波动率 | | 调整系数 配置比例 | 调整系数 配置比例 | | 调整系数 | 配置比例 | | 中国国债指数 | 0.08% | 430 | 34.18% | 258 | 24.00% | 129 | 14.16% | | COMEX黄金 | 0.93% | 107 | 8.51% | 107 | 9.96% | 107 | 11.75% | | 中国可转债 | 0.44% | 226 | 17.99% | 226 | 21.05% | 226 | 24.83% | | 印度SENSEX30 | 0. ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses asset allocation strategies in response to the narrative of "East Rising, West Falling," emphasizing the importance of adapting investment strategies to changing global dynamics [2]. Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategies - The All Weather Strategy outlines different asset allocation percentages based on risk preferences, with Chinese government bonds, gold, and convertible bonds being key components [2]. - For low-risk preference, the allocation includes 34.18% in Chinese government bonds and 17.99% in Chinese convertible bonds [2]. - For medium-risk preference, the allocation shifts to 24.00% in Chinese government bonds and 21.05% in Chinese convertible bonds [2]. - High-risk preference sees allocations of 14.16% in Chinese government bonds and 24.83% in Chinese convertible bonds [2]. Group 2: Market Trends and Indicators - The correlation among S&P 500 component stocks is at a historical low, suggesting a potential for mean reversion in 2025 [3]. - The current equity risk premium (ERP) for the "Seven Sisters" of U.S. stocks is not favorable, indicating a less attractive valuation environment [4]. - The overall market excluding the "Seven Sisters" also shows a low ERP, reinforcing the notion of high valuations in the U.S. market [5]. Group 3: Historical Performance Analysis - The Hang Seng Index has experienced over six weeks of consecutive gains, which historically leads to varied performance in Chinese stocks [6][7]. - Historical data indicates that after similar performance patterns, sectors such as low volatility, dividend yield, and value factors tend to underperform in the following months [8]. - The article suggests focusing on lagging sectors with high dividend yields and value characteristics rather than chasing leading sectors after significant market rallies [8].

戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 董事总经理（MD）、首席资产研究官 邮箱：daikang@gf.com.cn 报告摘要 ● 引言： 开年以来，"Deepseek"触发中美科技此消彼长叙事，恒生科技为代表的中国科技资产领涨全球，而美股&美元表 现不佳。战略层面："Deepseek"带来中国科技资产的价值重估，但并未逆转（逆全球化加剧、债务周期错位、AI产业趋 势）三大底层逻辑，因此，全球资产配置仍然是反脆弱的"全球杠铃策略"。而战术层面："全球杠铃策略"应该如何调整，来 应对"东升西落"的新叙事？ ● 美股：低波动—>高波动，下调↓权重。 过去两年，标普500维持偏低的波动率，一定程度上源自内部成分股之间偏低的相 关性，偏低的相关性则源自AI产业叙事下（7姐妹为代表的）美股科技龙头与非科技龙头间的分化，增加美股的分散性。当 前，标普500内部成分股间的相关性仍处于历史低点。我们判断，2025年，均值回归的牵引力、美国经济衰退压力（美股或 面临系统风险）、美国AI产业趋势一枝独秀的格局被打破（科技股独立行情门槛变高）等因素都将带来美股个股间相关性提 升（美股科技龙头与非科技龙头之间的分化将收敛）—>美股波动率 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights that global major indices experienced a general adjustment in March, with the US stock market leading the decline, particularly the Nasdaq Composite Index, which fell over 8% [5][6] - A/H shares showed strong performance in the first half of the month but retreated in the latter half, indicating resilience compared to other global markets [5][6] - The article notes a significant depreciation of the US dollar and a notable appreciation of the euro, driven by disappointing US economic data, which heightened recession concerns [5][6] Group 2 - China's economic fundamentals showed signs of recovery in January and February, but the foundation remains weak, with industrial profits declining by 0.3% year-on-year [8][9] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned negative in February, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) continued to show negative growth for 29 consecutive months, reflecting weak domestic demand [8][9] - The uncertainty surrounding the sustainability of real estate sales and the impact of overseas tariffs on exports poses risks to China's economic outlook [8][9] Group 3 - The market is transitioning from a phase of "speculative expectations" to a "performance verification" window, particularly significant in April when A-share earnings reports are released [10] - The first quarter earnings reports are expected to show strong performance in certain sectors, including non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and engineering machinery, driven by structural price increases and domestic and foreign demand [12][14] - The technology sector is anticipated to report high growth, particularly in areas such as IoT, audio, and wearable devices, supported by recovery trends [14] Group 4 - The article discusses the narrowing of style gaps in the market, indicating a potential return to original styles after periods of extreme divergence, with historical examples provided [16][17] - The TMT sector's trading volume has returned to a safe zone, suggesting that market sentiment has stabilized [19] - The relationship between US and Chinese assets is highlighted, with the narrative of "East rising, West falling" becoming more pronounced, particularly in the tech sector [21][22]

戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 董事总经理（MD）、首席资产研究官 邮箱：daikang@gf.com.cn ● 美股：低波动—>高波动，下调↓权重。 过去两年，标普500维持偏低的波动率，一定程度上源自内部成分股之间偏低的相 关性，偏低的相关性则源自AI产业叙事下（7姐妹为代表的）美股科技龙头与非科技龙头间的分化，增加美股的分散性。当 前，标普500内部成分股间的相关性仍处于历史低点。我们判断，2025年，均值回归的牵引力、美国经济衰退压力（美股或 面临系统风险）、美国AI产业趋势一枝独秀的格局被打破（科技股独立行情门槛变高）等因素都将带来美股个股间相关性提 升（美股科技龙头与非科技龙头之间的分化将收敛）—>美股波动率加大—>资产配置组合中下调↓美股权重。 ● 中资股： 短期事缓则圆，中长期行情驱动力有望更健康。 短期视角，我们在 25.2.28《牛市二阶段，事缓则圆》 提示： 周线6连阳后，港股短期行情有所透支，事缓则圆，等待政策落地和科技产业叙事验证。从历史经验看6连阳后不建议追涨领 先板块，反而应关注本轮落后的低波、股息、价值、质量因子，如：银行、公用事业、石油石化、电信服务等。更长期视 角，本轮 ...

点击小程序查看报告原文 2025年以来，全球AI、财政与地缘关系叙事发生重要变化，带动全球资产和资金流向出现"东升西落"迹象。 年初至今，以科技"七姐妹"（-12.4%）为代 表的美国科技股领跌全球，美元也由1月高点的110回落至104附近，回吐特朗普当选以来全部涨幅。与之相反，以恒生科技（23.1%）为代表中国科技股领 涨全球，欧洲股市（11.7%）涨幅也领先。 资金也出现小幅"东升西落"， 流入中国和欧洲市场的海外资金明显回升，流入美国的海外资金经历前两周的小 幅回落后本周又转为回升，趋势尚未彻底逆转。 图表：2025年以来全球资产出现"东升西落"趋势，美国科技龙头领跌，而港股和欧股领涨全球 注：数据截至3月28日 资料来源：Bloomberg，FactSet，中金公司研究部 方向比节奏更重要， 2024年只要抓住美股、中债和黄金，整体收益就不会差。 因此"东升西落"能否真的发生、还只是"昙花一现"，是关乎未来投资主线 乃至全球格局的核心问题。 而要想回答这个问题，就首先要搞清楚美国"例外论"是否瓦解。 我们将在本文中就这一问题详细解答。 美国的"例外论"与全球资产的"东升西落" 所谓美国"例外论"，主要 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the narrative of "East Rising, West Falling," highlighting the contrasting developments in the U.S. and China, particularly in the AI sector, and the implications for investment opportunities and market expectations [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - The U.S. market has seen a shift in focus from AI to macroeconomic issues due to changes in government policies, leading to increased risk aversion among investors [3][20]. - In contrast, the Chinese market has experienced a resurgence in stock prices since 2024, driven by renewed optimism in the tech sector, particularly AI [5][6]. - The release of DeepSeek has significantly impacted market expectations, with investors now viewing Chinese AI companies more favorably, marking a transition from negative to positive sentiment [24][25]. Group 2: AI Development Focus - The U.S. narrative around AI has been centered on scaling laws and achieving AGI, while China emphasizes practical applications and cost efficiency, as exemplified by DeepSeek's success [8][9][10]. - Manus, another AI product, illustrates the different approaches in the U.S. and China, focusing on user accessibility rather than AGI aspirations [11][12][17]. - The rapid growth of AI products in China reflects a broader trend of "pulse-like" growth, where new applications quickly gain traction among users [14][15][16]. Group 3: Investment Sentiment - Investors are currently more focused on the potential of AI to drive economic recovery and job creation in China, rather than solely on technological advancements [23][38]. - The performance of major Chinese tech companies, such as Alibaba and Tencent, is being closely monitored as they increase their investments in AI, indicating a shift in market expectations [24][26]. - The article suggests that the current investment climate in China resembles the U.S. market in early 2023, where large companies are expected to lead AI advancements [29][30]. Group 4: Macro and Industry Trends - The macroeconomic environment in China has improved, with consumer confidence rising and new technological breakthroughs like DeepSeek contributing to a more optimistic outlook [36][37]. - The article notes that various sectors, including energy storage and specialized manufacturing, are experiencing cyclical recoveries, further supporting the "East Rising" narrative [37]. - The discussion emphasizes the importance of addressing underlying economic issues, such as debt and consumption, to sustain growth in the long term [39][40].