东升西落

Search documents
【广发资产研究】资产配置如何应对“东升西落”叙事?——债务周期下的资产配置新策略系列之四
戴康的策略世界· 2025-04-02 07:33
戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 董事总经理(MD)、首席资产研究官 邮箱:daikang@gf.com.cn ● 美股:低波动—>高波动,下调↓权重。 过去两年,标普500维持偏低的波动率,一定程度上源自内部成分股之间偏低的相 关性,偏低的相关性则源自AI产业叙事下(7姐妹为代表的)美股科技龙头与非科技龙头间的分化,增加美股的分散性。当 前,标普500内部成分股间的相关性仍处于历史低点。我们判断,2025年,均值回归的牵引力、美国经济衰退压力(美股或 面临系统风险)、美国AI产业趋势一枝独秀的格局被打破(科技股独立行情门槛变高)等因素都将带来美股个股间相关性提 升(美股科技龙头与非科技龙头之间的分化将收敛)—>美股波动率加大—>资产配置组合中下调↓美股权重。 ● 中资股: 短期事缓则圆,中长期行情驱动力有望更健康。 短期视角,我们在 25.2.28《牛市二阶段,事缓则圆》 提示: 周线6连阳后,港股短期行情有所透支,事缓则圆,等待政策落地和科技产业叙事验证。从历史经验看6连阳后不建议追涨领 先板块,反而应关注本轮落后的低波、股息、价值、质量因子,如:银行、公用事业、石油石化、电信服务等。更长期视 角,本轮 ...
世界怎么就「东升西落」了?聊聊二级市场与 DeepSeek+Manus 的热潮 | 42章经
42章经· 2025-03-30 22:25
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the narrative of "East Rising, West Falling," highlighting the contrasting developments in the U.S. and China, particularly in the AI sector, and the implications for investment opportunities and market expectations [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - The U.S. market has seen a shift in focus from AI to macroeconomic issues due to changes in government policies, leading to increased risk aversion among investors [3][20]. - In contrast, the Chinese market has experienced a resurgence in stock prices since 2024, driven by renewed optimism in the tech sector, particularly AI [5][6]. - The release of DeepSeek has significantly impacted market expectations, with investors now viewing Chinese AI companies more favorably, marking a transition from negative to positive sentiment [24][25]. Group 2: AI Development Focus - The U.S. narrative around AI has been centered on scaling laws and achieving AGI, while China emphasizes practical applications and cost efficiency, as exemplified by DeepSeek's success [8][9][10]. - Manus, another AI product, illustrates the different approaches in the U.S. and China, focusing on user accessibility rather than AGI aspirations [11][12][17]. - The rapid growth of AI products in China reflects a broader trend of "pulse-like" growth, where new applications quickly gain traction among users [14][15][16]. Group 3: Investment Sentiment - Investors are currently more focused on the potential of AI to drive economic recovery and job creation in China, rather than solely on technological advancements [23][38]. - The performance of major Chinese tech companies, such as Alibaba and Tencent, is being closely monitored as they increase their investments in AI, indicating a shift in market expectations [24][26]. - The article suggests that the current investment climate in China resembles the U.S. market in early 2023, where large companies are expected to lead AI advancements [29][30]. Group 4: Macro and Industry Trends - The macroeconomic environment in China has improved, with consumer confidence rising and new technological breakthroughs like DeepSeek contributing to a more optimistic outlook [36][37]. - The article notes that various sectors, including energy storage and specialized manufacturing, are experiencing cyclical recoveries, further supporting the "East Rising" narrative [37]. - The discussion emphasizes the importance of addressing underlying economic issues, such as debt and consumption, to sustain growth in the long term [39][40].
世界怎么就「东升西落」了?聊聊二级市场与 DeepSeek+Manus 的热潮 | 42章经
42章经· 2025-03-30 14:25
「东升西落」的叙事 曲凯: 最近我又来美国了,发现市场真是变化太快,这边突然有人开始提到一个所谓「东升西 落」的叙事。 莫傑麟: 对,二级市场今年 1 月以来一直在演绎这个剧本,但其实 24 年就已经在为这个叙事做 铺垫了。 24 年美国的宏观环境和各项经济数据都比较好。他们一方面非常重视 AI,在所有前沿创新上也一 直绝对领先,另一方面又凭借美元的强势吸引着全球的投资。 但今年 Trump 上台之后,情况发生了变化。 Trump 在关税、财政支出上都做了很多调整,一套大刀阔斧去杠杆的动作下来,大家关注的重点 从 AI 转向了宏观问题,也对未来多了很多不确定性。 又因为过去几年,美国股市一直走高,投资人的预期已经被拉得很满。所以大家现在极度厌恶风 险,股市就会出现剧烈的震荡。 而今年的中国刚好是美国的镜像。 其实国内的股价从 24 年开始就有回升,但并不明显,直到今年 DeepSeek 的发酵才彻底引爆。 归根结底,还是因为大家之前对于中国科技行业和宏观环境的预期都太低了。 曲凯: 对,我觉得「东升西落」本质上是一种价值评判的回归,之前大家确实过于低估国内 AI 了,而 DeepSeek 就是一个典型代表。 ...
一批00后指望着“东升西落”赚大钱
投中网· 2025-03-25 02:35
以下文章来源于表外表里 ,作者洞见数据研究院 表外表里 . 洞见数据研究院 将投中网设为"星标⭐",第一时间收获最新推送 "纳斯达克固然强,但这轮优势在我。" 作者丨陈梓洁 编辑丨 付晓玲 曹宾玲 来源丨表外表里 "怎么就这么沉不住气呢,明明再多拿几天就回本了。" 盯着已清仓证券页面上刺眼的「-2000」总盈亏额,小羊后悔不已,恨不得穿回当时阻止自己割肉。 作为还在校的00后,打从记事起,他一直接收的舆论就是,"天天保卫3000点的大A,套你没商量; 一路向上的美股,闭眼买就能赚钱。" 怨气当然不是一天积累起来的,从特朗普上台开始,Lana感觉自己的投资运就变"霉"了:加征关税 大招一出,引发美股令人瞠目的跌幅;眼看大盘有了企稳迹象又跳出来"乱说",股价再次下挫……循 环往复、没完没了。 可没曾想2月份一进来就对上美股大跌的行情,眼看越抄底越没底、损失不断扩大,他心态崩了,急 惶惶割肉跑路。 然而接下来的发展,让这波看起来像是"假摔":上周底到这周,美股三大指数波动上行,技术面呈现 企稳信号。 市场的口风,一整个大逆转。华尔街集体摇旗呐喊起"美股见底"。国内美股拥趸、夹头大佬但斌,也 盯着K线乐观道:"美股的 ...
摩根士丹利基金市场洞察:基本面因素将对市场产生较为明显的结构性影响
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-03-24 06:32
Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a significant decline last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.6%, the CSI 300 Index down 2.29%, and the Wind All A Index down 2.1% [1] - Industry performance varied, with construction materials, home appliances, oil and petrochemicals, and electric utilities showing strong results, while sectors like computers, media, electronics, and food and beverages lagged behind [1] - The market style is leaning towards mid-cap value stocks, with an average daily trading volume of 15,496.84 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.41% from the previous week [1] Group 2 - Macroeconomic data for January and February showed overall improvement, especially considering the high base from the previous year; the GDP growth rates for the first two quarters of last year were 5.3% and 4.7% respectively, with expectations for a smoother performance this year [2] - If macro data remains stable, certain cyclical sectors may outperform expectations, requiring analysis based on industry characteristics [2] - Industries experiencing upward inventory cycles are noteworthy, as they have struggled for investor recognition in the past two years, and current downstream replenishment activities may lead to valuation and performance increases [2]
“东升西落”的趋势非常强!刘煜辉最新发声:未来一年半到两年,中国的重要战略机遇期已经打开……
聪明投资者· 2025-03-24 05:27
Core Viewpoint - The trend of "East Rising, West Falling" is very strong, indicating a significant shift in geopolitical dynamics that could create investment opportunities in China [1][2][35]. Group 1: Geopolitical Changes - The relationship between the U.S. and China is likely transitioning from "Decoupling" to "Deal," which may alleviate U.S. inflation and boost domestic demand, thus enhancing the sustainability of U.S. finances and leading to a revaluation of Chinese assets [2][35]. - The current U.S. political landscape is characterized by intense internal party conflicts, which are reshaping the geopolitical environment and influencing the G2 relationship [7][11]. Group 2: Economic Conditions - The U.S. is facing a severe imbalance in its macroeconomic accounts, with a significant gap between national investment and savings, leading to a persistent current account deficit [13][14][15]. - The U.S. service trade surplus, which has historically helped balance the current account deficit, may shrink due to recent technological shifts and trade tensions [20][21][22]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - There is a critical opportunity for investors to capitalize on the potential revaluation of Chinese assets as external conditions change [3][36]. - The upcoming strategic opportunity for China is emphasized, suggesting that investors should be proactive in seizing these moments [47]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Expectations - Market fluctuations are primarily driven by collective expectations rather than just fundamental factors, indicating that investor sentiment plays a crucial role in market dynamics [4][45]. - The concept of the "multiplier effect" is highlighted, where consumer confidence and expectations can significantly influence economic behavior and market performance [39][44].
消费提振预期下如何看家电?
2025-03-18 01:38
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on the Home Appliance Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the home appliance industry in China, discussing market trends, retail performance, and investment opportunities in the sector [2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Style Shift**: There is a notable shift in market style from technology sectors like AI to consumer sectors, driven by consumption-boosting policies [2]. - **Retail Performance**: Home appliance retail is expected to progress in a wave-like manner rather than experiencing sharp declines. The first two months of 2025 are influenced by a short-term pull-forward effect from December, but the overall impact on annual performance is minimal [3][4]. - **Sales Growth Expectations**: Air conditioning shipments are projected to achieve double-digit growth from March to August 2025, supported by promotional seasons and national subsidy policies [3][4]. - **Tariff Concerns**: Concerns regarding tariffs are diminishing, with companies having low exposure to U.S. revenues being less affected. This alleviates valuation pressures on the sector [3][5]. - **Valuation Levels**: White appliance companies are currently valued at historical lows, with Gree at less than 7 times earnings, Midea at about 23 times, and Haier and Hisense around 10 to 11 times [3][6]. - **High-End Brands**: Haier is benefiting from domestic sales transformations and its high-end brand, Casarte, showing strong performance with a 15% year-on-year growth in air conditioning installations in January-February 2025 [3][8]. Additional Important Insights - **Black and Kitchen Appliances**: The black appliance sector is benefiting from trends like larger screens and increased Mini LED penetration, while kitchen appliances are seeing growth due to the release of second-hand homes in first-tier cities [3][9]. - **Export Performance**: In 2024, China's home appliance exports exceeded $100 billion, marking a 14% year-on-year increase. The first two months of 2025 also show a 6% increase in export value [3][20]. - **Competitive Landscape**: The competitive landscape in the home appliance market remains robust, with retail subsidies expected to reach 80-100 billion yuan, driving growth in the sector [10][21]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Recommended investment targets include low-valuation, high-dividend white appliance companies like Gree, Haier, Hisense, and Midea, which are expected to benefit from domestic sales recovery and consumption-boosting policies [7][21]. Conclusion - The home appliance industry in China is poised for growth, supported by favorable market conditions, improving retail performance, and strategic investment opportunities. The focus on consumer spending and government support is expected to drive positive trends in both domestic and export markets [2][20][21].
产业经济周观点:关注情绪与基本面的分歧-2025-03-17
Huafu Securities· 2025-03-17 05:39
Group 1 - The report highlights that the restructuring of the global landscape in the AI era is expected to propel China into the ranks of high-income countries, driving long-term expansion in high-quality consumption and service industries [2][3] - China's globally competitive output system is anticipated to lead the current technological revolution and foster domestic consumption prosperity over the long term [3][4] - The structural reversal of high inflation in the US service sector and low inflation in goods, combined with economic recovery in Europe and China, is likely to usher in a prolonged upward cycle for global manufacturing [3][4] Group 2 - The report indicates a high market sentiment of "East Rising, West Falling," emphasizing the need to focus on the realization of fundamentals [4][43] - Short-term growth industries continue to show high-low cuts, with military industry being a focus, while mid-term preferences lean towards cyclical dividend assets, particularly in electrolytic aluminum, high-quality consumption, and service consumption [4][43] - Long-term prospects are favorable for the AI application industry chain and related Chinese advantages, including scarce manufacturing capabilities, with a positive outlook on Hong Kong stocks, central state-owned enterprises, leading advanced semiconductor firms, traditional manufacturing leaders, the Belt and Road Initiative, and military industry [4][43] Group 3 - The report notes that the US inflation structure may benefit the recovery of global manufacturing, with February's US CPI inflation unexpectedly falling to 2.8% year-on-year, compared to an expected 2.9% [9] - The report also mentions that the Hong Kong stock market saw a decline, with the Hang Seng Technology Index dropping by 2.59% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index falling by 0.4% [14] - In the A-share market, the report indicates a divergence in performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.39% while the Sci-Tech 50 Index fell by 1.76% [20]
金融市场分析周报(2025.03.03-2025.03.07)-2025-03-13
AVIC Securities· 2025-03-13 14:46
2025年03月12日 证券研究报告|宏观研究|宏观深度 金融市场分析周报 (2025.03.03-2025.03.07) 报告摘要 | 主要数据 | | | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3379.8284 | | 沪深 300 | 3941.4157 | | 深证成指 | 10861.164 | 主要指数走势图 季节性因素致通胀走弱,强力稳增长政策稳定 预期 -2025-03-12 财政货币双宽松,市场有望延续震荡上行 - 2025-03-07 金融市场分析周报 —2025-03-05 股市有风险 入市需谨慎 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 联系地址:北京市朝阳区望京街道望京东园四区2号楼中航产融大 厦中航证券有限公司 公司网址:www.avicsec.com 联系电话:010-59219558 传真:010-59562637 证券研究报告 中航证券研究所发布 1 ● 进出口:由于基数走高及美国加征关税,今年以来出口增速明显放 缓,后续不确定性加大。以美元计,1-2 月出口累计同比增长 2.3%,增速较去年 12月大幅放缓 8.4 个百分点;进口由增长 1%转 为下降 8.4%, 增速较 1 ...
独立行情中的不确定性
Minsheng Securities· 2025-03-11 12:40
独立行情中的不确定性 2025 年 03 月 11 日 邮箱:mouyiling@mszq.com 邮箱:meikai@mszq.com 邮箱:fangzhiyong@mszq.com 研究助理:季宏坤 执业证号:S0100124070013 邮箱:jihongkun@mszq.com A 股策略点评 20250311 [Table_Author] 分析师:牟一凌 分析师:梅锴 分析师:方智勇 执业证号:S0100521120002 执业证号:S0100522070001 执业证号:S0100522040003 ➢ 不一样的美股下跌。昨日(20250310)美股整体大幅调整,其中,纳指跌幅创 下 2022 年 10 月以来的新高。实际上,自 2025 年 2 月 20 日以来,美股整体已 经进入下跌趋势,随之而来的是 VIX 指数的持续攀升(图 1)与纳指加速器指标的 持续回落(图 2)。截至 2025 年 3 月 10 日,美股 VIX 指数已经逐步接近 2024 年 8 月的高点,而纳指加速器指标则远低于负两倍标准差水平。从历史上看,每当 纳指加速器指标回落至负一倍标准差以下时,纳指往往会迎来一轮反弹,但 ...