哈喽大家好，我是小李。近年来，国际舆论场上经常讨论一个问题：美国能否像冷战时期那样通过一系 列手段打败中国，重演击垮苏联的剧本？毕竟，在上世纪冷战结束后，美国成功通过军备竞赛、经济封 锁和意识形态围堵将苏联拖垮，至今这被视为霸权运作的经典案例。然而，新加坡总理李显龙在达沃斯 论坛上明确指出，中国绝不会像苏联那样崩溃。这一论断揭示了中美博弈和美苏冷战之间的核心差异。 在科技领域，美国以安全隐患为由，联合盟友对华为进行围堵，禁用中国的5G技术。然而，令美国意 想不到的是，中国在芯片国产化、人工智能和半导体等领域实现了突破，反而加速了自主研发的进程。 在军事领域，美国在亚太地区加大军事部署，加强与日本、韩国和菲律宾等国的军事同盟，试图重现冷 战时期的围堵体系。然而，中国始终坚持防御性国防路线，专注于精准突破，不追求军备竞赛，尤其是 在导弹技术、反介入和区域拒止系统等领域取得了显著成果。这样的做法既保障了国家安全，又避免了 军事投入拖累经济，让美国的以军备拖垮对手的策略彻底失效。 冷战期间，美苏两国长达数十年的对抗，重塑了全球格局。这场无硝烟的战争从欧洲的对峙到亚洲的热 战，从古巴导弹危机的核边缘博弈到阿富汗战场的代 ...

公开威胁中国，美财长狂言背后却是白宫不愿面对的现实。稀土协议悬而未决之际，中美大豆贸易状况也越发蹊跷，种种迹象表明：中美博弈的暗战，才刚 刚开始。 10月底，中美釜山会晤让越发激烈的中美博弈终于出现了缓和的迹象，在中国为后续贸易磋商做准备的同时，美国却将这次中美会晤的结果视为自身的一场 胜利。 11月16日，美国财政部长贝森特在接受福克斯新闻节目采访时表示，美国政府希望在11月底的感恩节前，与中国敲定一份恢复和保障对美稀土供应的协议。 随后，贝森特就开始了"表演"，他声称，如果中方变卦，美国方面有很多报复的手段。贝森特的这番表态前后态度非常矛盾：在提及和中国敲定稀土保障协 议之时，贝森特完全是以赢家的态度在叙述一件客观事实，似乎美国对和中国达成稀土供应协议这件事情胜券在握，但随后对中国发出的威胁，又展露出美 国政府对于与中国敲定稀土供应协议这件事情的不自信。 说实话，美国财长的矛盾话语，实际上是心虚的表现。中美博弈不是战争却胜似战争，双方在釜山达成相关共识其实就是某种意义上的"停战协议"，而"停 战协议"自然是互有条件。只是，在过去半个月里，中方在积极履约的同时，美国政府却多次违反了"停战协议"，比如特朗普明 ...

Group 1 - The meeting between the leaders of China and the U.S. in Busan resulted in significant agreements, with both sides showing a willingness to engage in dialogue and compromise [1][3] - Trump expressed that the meeting was a tremendous success, highlighting China's commitment to large-scale purchases of U.S. soybeans, which will commence immediately [1][4] - The U.S. Senate passed a resolution to terminate the comprehensive tariff policy initiated by the Trump administration, indicating a shift towards a more rational approach in U.S.-China relations [3][4] Group 2 - The U.S. has recognized the ineffectiveness of its tariff policies, which have negatively impacted its own economy, leading to a strategic retreat in the trade conflict [4][5] - The negotiation dynamics suggest a shift in power, with China gaining an upper hand as it continues to rise in strength while the U.S. faces relative decline [4][5] - The current phase of U.S.-China relations is seen as a strategic turning point, with both countries' strengths becoming increasingly comparable, and China positioned to potentially surpass the U.S. [5]

Group 1 - The article discusses the current state of the US-China rivalry, highlighting that while both nations engage in intense competition, other countries remain silent and passive, indicating a lack of influence in the ongoing conflict [1][4][7] - It notes that the US has raised tariffs on China to over 50%, but both sides have shown restraint, maintaining tariffs around 10% to avoid severe economic repercussions [5][6] - The article emphasizes that the competition revolves around trade rules, technological dominance, and resource control, with both nations carefully managing the crisis to avoid total breakdown [6][10] Group 2 - The impact of the US-China rivalry on third-party countries is significant, as they suffer from reduced competitiveness and market access due to the tariffs imposed by both superpowers [9][12] - South Korea is highlighted as a case study, attempting to align with the US while still needing to maintain ties with China, resulting in a precarious position that has led to a decline in its semiconductor exports [12][13] - The article concludes that the silence of other nations stems from their realization of their limited power in the geopolitical landscape, with many caught between the competing interests of the US and China [15][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "15th Five - Year Plan" period is a crucial five - year period that connects the past and the future, with special significance for high - quality development and achieving the 2035 visionary goals [10][11]. - China's economic development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period faces a complex and uncertain internal and external environment. Externally, there are challenges such as global economic slowdown, intensified great - power competition, and supply - chain reconstruction; internally, there are issues like economic growth slowdown, effective demand shortage, and population aging [13]. - To promote high - quality development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, five major policy levers should be grasped, including developing new quality productive forces, expanding domestic demand, deepening income distribution reform, building a unified national market, and reshaping the incentive - restraint mechanism [67][68]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 "15th Five - Year Plan" Historical Position - The "15th Five - Year Plan" is at the historical intersection of the "Two Centenary Goals" and is a foundational stage for the new journey of building a modern socialist country. It has a "connecting - the - past - and - future" role, with tasks of "attacking and implementing" and coincides with many major historical nodes [10][11]. 3.2 Ten Judgments on the Internal and External Environment of China's Economic Development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" Period 3.2.1 External Environment - Global economic uncertainty increases, and the global economy may enter a deep adjustment period of slow growth and declining potential output. The "15th Five - Year Plan" may face a "high - risk, high - volatility" global economic environment with weak growth momentum [14][16]. - A multi - polar trade system is taking shape. China's voice in global economic and trade is expected to further increase, but trade frictions with non - US countries may intensify [20][21]. - Sino - US competition remains the core variable affecting the global political and economic landscape, evolving towards "normalization" and "complexity." The competition for scientific and technological and industrial discourse power is crucial [31][32]. - Supply - chain reconstruction has entered the second half, with geopolitics and strategic security becoming the main lines of global supply - chain layout [35]. - China has many favorable factors to actively shape the external environment and is not completely passive in the face of external pressure [39][40]. 3.2.2 Internal Environment - The official "4.17%" may be the minimum growth target for the "15th Five - Year Plan," and the expected economic growth range is around 4.5% - 5% [41]. - The transformation of old and new driving forces will accelerate the adjustment of China's industrial structure. The real estate industry may be in the transition from the bottom to a new cycle, and the urgency of new quality productive forces playing a leading role has increased significantly [45][47]. - The population structure may gradually transition to deep aging, and the pressure of "getting old before getting rich" poses more severe challenges to the pension system, medical resources, and elderly care services [53]. - Reform has entered the "deep - water zone," and the implementation of some reform tasks faces significant resistance [57]. - "Debt reduction in development" should be implemented, focusing on structural optimization and efficiency improvement to enhance the sustainability of fiscal debt [61][63]. 3.3 Five Levers to Promote China's High - Quality Development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" Period - **Lever 1: Technological Innovation and Industrial Upgrading** "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions prioritize building a modern industrial system. China's industrial structure has problems such as traditional industries in urgent need of transformation and modern manufacturing being "large but not strong." R & D investment is still relatively low, and there are "bottleneck" issues in key areas. "Full - chain" key core technology research in key areas is necessary, and industry "involution" should be avoided [69][70][71]. - **Lever 2: Expanding Domestic Demand and Boosting Consumption** The importance of "expanding domestic demand" has increased. Insufficient effective demand is the core obstacle to the domestic cycle. During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, direct subsidies to residents may be increased, and investment growth is expected to be stable, especially ensuring that the proportion of private investment does not continue to decline [5][8]. - **Lever 3: Deepening Income Distribution Reform and Improving the Social Security System** "People's livelihood" is a key word in the "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions. Income distribution reform, household registration system reform, and improvement of the social security system are expected to be key tasks [6]. - **Lever 4: Continuously Promoting Anti - involution and Building a Unified National Market** Building a unified national market is a systematic project. The implementation of the Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee's reform tasks is crucial, especially optimizing the local government assessment and incentive mechanism and solving the problem of China's economic growth path dependence [8]. - **Lever 5: Remodeling the Incentive - Restraint Mechanism and Releasing the Vitality of Micro - entities** The "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions emphasize "combining strict management with kindness and balancing incentives and restraints." It is expected to optimize the local assessment and statistical system, promote fiscal and tax system reform, and improve the business environment for enterprises [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strategic shifts in U.S.-China relations, particularly in the context of economic pressures and geopolitical maneuvers, with the U.S. easing tariffs as a response to domestic inflation and upcoming elections [1][3][5] - The Philippines' rapid re-establishment of electronic visa services for Chinese citizens is seen as a pragmatic move to revive its economy, despite ongoing tensions in the South China Sea [1][5][9] - The U.S. military's perceived ineffectiveness in the South China Sea, exemplified by the recent incident involving the USS Nimitz, reflects a broader decline in American influence and reliability as a security partner for Southeast Asian nations [3][4][6] Group 2 - The economic impact on the Philippines due to strained relations with China is significant, with a drastic decline in fishing yields and tourism, highlighting the urgent need for economic recovery measures [4][5][6] - The shift in the Philippines' foreign policy indicates a broader trend among Southeast Asian countries, which are increasingly prioritizing economic opportunities with China over military alliances with the U.S. [5][6][7] - The articles suggest that the ongoing U.S.-China competition will be determined more by economic realities and cooperation rather than military posturing, as countries in the region seek practical benefits [6][7][9]

中国连续胜利，美国进入低谷时刻，中美博弈发生了深刻变化，联合国安理会也上演了一幕精彩的对决，时代的潮流似乎发生 了转变。 新加坡国立大学东亚研究所所长、美国教授希睿德曾经说过一句话："这个世界上，除了中美以外，其他都是小 国。"作为全球最重要的双边关系，中美爆发军事冲突的可能性不大，因为没有一方愿意冒险玉石俱焚。但是这并不意味着两国 能和平共处。在经贸、科技等领域，中美之间的对抗越来越激烈，尤其是美国对全球加税和中国对稀土的重拳出击。自从特朗 普成为美国总统以来，很多人开始注意到，中国已经在没有开火的情况下，连续打了两场"翻身仗"，中美的实力和影响力正在 悄悄发生变化。 一、搬石头砸脚——中国的智慧反击战术 今年9月29日，美国商务部突然发布了一项出口管制措施，规定：如果某个实体被列入 美国的"实体清单"，那么它持股50%或以上的子公司也将自动受到同等制裁。这项规则被称为"50%穿透性规则"。简单来说，就 是如果某个公司被美国制裁，那么它的控股子公司也将受到制裁。于是，针对中国企业的"明抢"开始了。去年12月，闻泰科技 被美国列入了"实体清单"，而安世半导体是闻泰科技的全资子公司，总部设在荷兰。今年9月底，荷 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that China's attitude towards the U.S. is becoming increasingly assertive, and if the EU continues to lack strategic autonomy, it may find itself caught between the U.S. and China [1][11][13] - The recent U.S.-China meeting reached several agreements, including joint efforts to combat fentanyl trafficking, lowering certain tariffs, and delaying rare earth regulations, which provided some relief for European businesses [3][10] - However, the agreements lack detailed execution clauses and binding commitments, diminishing their practical effectiveness, and core issues such as technological competition and geopolitical differences remain unaddressed [3][4] Group 2 - The article highlights that the current geopolitical landscape has shifted, with China adopting a more proactive stance in response to U.S. tariffs and trade pressures, utilizing rare earths as a significant bargaining chip [8][10] - European industries, particularly the automotive and aerospace sectors, are increasingly vulnerable to the repercussions of U.S.-China tensions, as their supply chains heavily rely on Chinese rare earths and markets [10][14] - The EU recognizes the importance of strategic autonomy, as evidenced by the introduction of the "European Strategic Autonomy Act," aimed at reducing dependence on external critical resources and technologies [10][14]

周五国家取消稀土及部分新能源产品管控政策的消息一经发布，便引发广泛讨论。 市场上不少声音在问：这是否意味着中美关系迎来实质性转向？放开稀土出口，会不会让美国借机重建产业链，最终削弱中方的战略主动权？ 其实跳出单一政策变动的表面，就能发现这绝非简单的"让步"，而是基于产业实力与博弈全局的战略考量。 此前的适度管控，已让全球市场清晰看到稀土对高端制造的战略意义，也让美国深刻体会到其产业链对中国稀土的依赖。 松绑非妥协 稀土管控政策的调整，很容易被解读为"退一步"，但从战略层面看，稀土这一核心资源的管控从来都是灵活的"调节阀"，而非非黑即白的"开关"。 何时收紧、何时放宽，始终服务于整体博弈需求，而非被动应对外部压力。 此次政策调整，既是对中美元首会谈成果的落地，更本质的是产业优势赋予的底气。 全球稀土储量并不稀缺，美国、澳大利亚等国均有一定储备，但需明确的是，多数国家仅具备资源潜力，缺乏可经济开采的储备与加工能力，稀土 的战略价值从来不在于单一的资源储量，而在于全产业链的构建能力。 从矿石开采、选矿提纯，到冶炼分离、深加工，整个体系涉及上百个关键环节，每个环节都需要长期的技术积累、人才沉淀与供应链协同。 中国用三 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that liquidity easing and supply-side constraints will continue to be the main investment themes in the energy and materials sectors, benefiting precious metals, industrial metals, and certain chemicals like chromium and refrigerants [1] Group 1: Market Overview - From early 2025 to the present, the non-ferrous metal index has significantly outperformed the broader market, primarily due to strong performances in precious and rare metals [2] - Basic chemicals and steel indices have performed similarly to the market, while coal and oil & petrochemical indices have underperformed [2] Group 2: Precious Metals and Copper - Despite a recent high-level pullback in gold prices, the ongoing Fed rate cut cycle is expected to support gold prices, with a projected range of $4,000 to $5,000 per ounce for 2026 [3] - Silver is anticipated to have strong price elasticity due to an expanding supply-demand gap, with a projected price range of $50 to $60 per ounce for 2026 [3] - Copper remains a key investment direction in the metals sector, with a projected price range of $10,000 to $12,000 per ton for 2026, benefiting from liquidity easing and tightening supply [3] Group 3: Supply Constraints and Chemical Products - Supply-side constraints are expected to strengthen, with aluminum supply growth slowing and cobalt prices likely to rise due to severe supply shortages [4] - The projected price for aluminum in 2026 is set at 21,500 RMB per ton, while cobalt is expected to range between 400,000 to 450,000 RMB per ton [4] - Chromium and refrigerants are also expected to see price increases due to tight supply conditions influenced by environmental regulations [4] Group 4: Strategic Metals and US-China Relations - The ongoing US-China geopolitical tensions are enhancing the investment value of strategic metals, particularly rare earths and tungsten, with stable demand growth in defense and advanced manufacturing sectors [5] - The projected price range for praseodymium-neodymium oxide in 2026 is expected to rise to 550,000 to 650,000 RMB per ton, while tungsten is projected to be between 300,000 to 350,000 RMB per ton [5] Group 5: High Demand for Lithium and Potash - Lithium prices are expected to rise due to stronger-than-expected demand from energy storage batteries, with a projected price range of 80,000 to 100,000 RMB per ton for 2026 [6] - Potash prices are also expected to increase, driven by delayed production expansions in major producing regions and strong demand growth in Southeast Asia [6] Group 6: Coal, Steel, Silicon, and Oil - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to support price recoveries in coal, steel, and silicon materials, with projections for slight price increases in thermal coal, coking coal, and silicon materials in 2026 [7] - The steel industry is anticipated to reach a turning point in 2025, with ongoing supply constraints and improved profit distribution trends [7] - Oil supply and demand are expected to shift from a loose to a balanced state, with Brent crude oil prices projected to rise to $65 to $70 per barrel [7]