1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US is mainly concerned about reciprocal tariffs, and the results and implementation of the 232 investigation may be postponed. The US Senate's "Big Beautiful" bill was passed, planning to raise the debt ceiling to $5 trillion with a potential fiscal deficit expansion of over $3 trillion. The Trump administration's tariff policy hasn't led to a significant rebound in consumer - side inflation. The Fed's interest - rate cut is expected in September, October, or December. - Due to various factors such as mine production disruptions and smelter operations, the production and import of copper concentrates and electrolytic copper in July may change, with domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreasing. - Amid the combination of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs and the traditional off - season, the capacity utilization rate of domestic copper enterprises may decline. The price of Shanghai copper is expected to be cautiously strong. Investors are advised to hold long - term long positions cautiously and pay attention to key support and pressure levels [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - The US Senate's "Big Beautiful" bill was passed, raising the debt ceiling to $5 trillion, with a potential fiscal deficit expansion of over $3 trillion. The Trump administration's tariff policy hasn't caused a significant rebound in consumer - side inflation. Trump may appoint a successor to Fed Chairman Powell in advance, and the expected time for the Fed to cut interest rates is September, October, or December [3] 3.2 Upstream - Rio Tinto will pay nearly $139 million to settle a class - action lawsuit regarding the development delay of the Oyu Tolgoi copper project in Mongolia. The western side of the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine under the control of a mining company resumed production in late June, but the drainage on the eastern side may last until September, reducing the planned mineral copper production in 2025 from 62 - 68 to 37 - 42 tons. - Glencore's PASAR copper smelter in the Philippines has shut down. The copper smelter of Zhongkuang Resources in Namibia has stopped production due to a shortage of copper concentrates. Glencore's Alto Norte smelter in Chile has suspended production. The Kamoa - Kakula smelter may be put into production in June 2025 with an annual output of 600,000 tons of cathode copper. - Japan's Sumitomo Metal Mining plans to conduct a 6 - week maintenance on its copper smelter in late October. Pan - Pacific Copper may cut production due to a shortage of copper concentrates. Glencore's Moura Isa copper smelter may shut down in the second half of 2025. Indonesia's Freeport McMoRan's Waryagba smelter will resume production in late June and reach full - load production in December. India's Jhagadia copper smelter resumed feeding on June 18 but still faces the risk of cancellation of long - term supply contracts for South American copper concentrates [3][4] 3.3 Investment Strategy - Due to the expansion of the US fiscal deficit, the Fed's potential interest - rate cut, the combination of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs and the traditional off - season, and the decline in electrolytic copper inventory at home and abroad, the price of Shanghai copper is expected to be cautiously strong. Investors are advised to hold long - term long positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4] 3.4 Market Data - On July 1, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 80,640, with an increase of 770 compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 113,449 lots, an increase of 12,504 lots. The open interest was 223,983 lots, an increase of 11,072 lots. The inventory of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 24,773 tons, a decrease of 1,078 tons. - The Shanghai copper basis was - 435, a decrease of 555 compared to the previous day. The spot premium or discount of electrolytic copper in different regions also changed. For example, the spot premium of electrolytic copper in Guangzhou increased by 25, and the spot discount of electrolytic copper in North China decreased by 30. - The closing price of the 3 - month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange was 9,943, an increase of 65 compared to the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased by 91,250 tons. - The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures was 5.099, a decrease of 0.02 compared to the previous day. The total inventory increased by 2,858 tons [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The Shanghai copper price is expected to be cautiously strong due to disruptions in multiple overseas copper mine productions, low electrolytic copper inventories both at home and abroad, and the easing of mutual tariff levies between China and the US leading to export expectations. Attention should be paid to the support and resistance levels: for Shanghai copper, the support is around 76,000 - 78,000 and the resistance is around 80,000 - 82,000; for London copper, the support is around 9,000 - 9,300 and the resistance is around 9,800 - 10,000; for US copper, the support is around 4.3 - 4.5 and the resistance is around 5.0 - 5.5 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract**: On June 27, 2025, the closing price was 79,920, up 1,030 from the previous day; the trading volume was 131,756 lots, an increase of 54,456 lots; the open interest was 215,705 lots, an increase of 24,565 lots; the inventory was 25,346 tons, an increase of 1,650 tons; the average price of SMN 1 electrolytic copper was 80,125, up 1,185 [2]. - **London Copper**: On June 27, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,879, down 17 from the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a decrease of 91,275 tons; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 240.67, down 79.16; the LME copper futures 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 23.89, down 14.53; the Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 8.0899, up 0.12 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On June 27, 2025, the closing price of the copper futures active contract was 5.122, up 0.14; the total inventory was 209,281, an increase of 3,146 [2]. Important Information - **Macro - economic**: The US Senate's budget reconciliation bill plans to raise the debt ceiling to $5 trillion and make three corporate tax cuts set to expire in 2020 in the House version permanent, but no final agreement has been reached on the "state and local tax deduction" (SMLT). The US May CPI annual rate was 2.4%, lower than expected but higher than the previous value. The Trump administration's tariff policy has not triggered a rebound in consumer inflation, increasing the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September or December [2]. - **Supply - side**: Ivanhoe Mines' 2025 Kanoa - Kakula copper production guidance is 370,000 - 420,000 metal tons, a 28% decrease from the initial guidance due to an earthquake at the Zakuza copper mine. Several mines had production issues, while some mines like Tongling Nonferrous' Miraado copper mine in Ecuador, Julong copper mine, and ACC Metals' Gediktepe mine have expansion plans that may increase domestic copper concentrate production (import) in June. The China copper concentrate import index is negative and has decreased from last week, and port copper concentrate out - port (in - port, inventory) volumes have changed accordingly [2]. - **Demand - side**: The capacity utilization rate of Chinese refined copper rods (recycled copper rods) has increased (decreased) from last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventories of relevant enterprises have changed accordingly. The production start - up rate of Chinese copper wire and cable has decreased, and the raw material (finished product) inventories of relevant enterprises have changed. The order volume (capacity utilization rate) of Chinese copper liquid - coated wire has increased (decreased), and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of relevant enterprises have decreased. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese brass rods has decreased, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of relevant enterprises have increased. Due to the easing of mutual tariffs between China and the US and the arrival of the traditional consumption off - season, the capacity utilization rate (production volume, import volume, export volume) of domestic steel enterprises in June may decline (increase, increase, decrease) [2]. Trading Strategy Pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper as mentioned above [2].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The ongoing trade negotiations between the US and China highlight a strategic divergence, with the US seeking quick agreements while China prefers a more measured approach [4][6] - The recent Geneva talks resulted in a temporary consensus, but the agreement quickly fell apart due to accusations of non-compliance from both sides [11] - China's exports to the US have significantly declined, with a reported drop of 34% in May, indicating the impact of US tariffs [19] Summary by Sections Trade Negotiations - The negotiations have allowed China to gain time and mitigate the risks of more severe tariffs and technology restrictions [2] - The contrasting negotiation styles of Trump and Xi Jinping reflect their differing political incentives and approaches to trade disputes [4][6] Export Dynamics - China is a dominant producer of rare earth minerals, with an annual production of 400 thousand metric tons, which plays a crucial role in the trade discussions [4] - The US has imposed a 55% tariff on Chinese goods, which includes various components from previous tariffs, complicating future negotiations [16] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the trade discussions may take years to resolve, with both sides needing to navigate complex issues surrounding export controls and compliance [4][12] - There is skepticism regarding the potential for significant concessions from China, as they aim to maintain control over their export licensing processes [12][14]

Group 1: Japan-China Economic Relations - Guangdong Province and CITIC Group hosted a significant event titled "Japanese Enterprises Guangdong Tour," attended by key officials, emphasizing investment opportunities in new sectors like robotics and AI [3] - The event facilitated specialized meetings across five industries, resulting in 68 projects, with 27 signed on-site, totaling 1,034.64 million RMB [3] - Guangdong is a major hub for Japanese investment, with 3,155 Japanese enterprises established since the reform era, totaling 17 billion USD in actual investment [3] Group 2: Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign investment in China has been declining, making cooperation with Japan and the EU increasingly vital for Guangdong [4] - From January to April, Guangdong's actual foreign investment grew by 8.9%, with Japanese investment increasing by over 40% [4] - Guangdong's strategy to attract Japanese investment is seen as a crucial approach to mitigate economic challenges [4] Group 3: Panasonic's Challenges and Strategies - Panasonic's revenue in China declined by 0.95%, with its market share in core categories like air conditioning dropping below 1% [5] - The company plans to innovate by launching a "Living Space" strategy targeting the second-hand housing renovation market, aiming for a threefold increase in business scale by 2025 [5] - The renovation market presents significant opportunities despite challenges in adapting Japanese aesthetics to practical Chinese needs [5] Group 4: Retail Sector Dynamics - The Chinese department store industry is facing a wave of closures, yet the Shanghai Takashimaya department store is investing 100 million RMB for transformation [6] - Takashimaya has adapted to the Chinese market by balancing Japanese commercial characteristics with local preferences, achieving notable success [6][7] - The store has become the first in Changning District to implement an "immediate refund" tax policy, significantly increasing its refund amounts [7] Group 5: Komatsu's Market Position - Komatsu forecasts a 27% profit decline this fiscal year, attributing part of this to competition from Chinese firms offering lower prices and excess capacity [7][8] - The company acknowledges its strengths in durability and reliability but faces challenges from Chinese manufacturers who provide competitive performance at lower costs [8] - The US-China trade dispute has added an estimated 20 billion JPY (approximately 140 million USD) in tariff burdens for Komatsu [8]

Report Title - Geopolitical Impact: Oils and Fats First Decline Then Rise - Guoxin Futures Weekly Report on Oils and Oilseeds [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The protein meal and oil markets are influenced by multiple factors such as geopolitics, trade policies, weather, and supply - demand relationships. The markets show volatile trends, and investors should pay attention to short - term and long - term indicators and adopt appropriate trading strategies [6][70][141][142] Summary by Directory Part 1: Protein Meal Market Analysis - **Market Trends**: CBOT soybeans fluctuated and declined this week, while domestic soybean meal fluctuated higher. The M2509 contract oscillated around 3050. The spread between buying meal and selling oil promoted the upward movement of Dalian soybean meal [6] - **USDA Export Inspection**: As of the week ending June 5, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 547,040 tons, higher than expected. The cumulative export inspection volume of US soybeans this crop year was 45,188,245 tons, higher than the same period last year [11] - **Sowing Progress**: As of June 8, 2025, the US soybean planting rate was 90%, lower than the market expectation of 91%. The emergence rate was 75%, and the good - to - excellent rate was 68% [23] - **Weather**: Showery weather dominated the central and eastern United States, affecting fieldwork. Some areas had heavy rainfall, while others had light or no rainfall. Temperature differences were significant in different regions [26] - **Oilseed Market**: In May 2025, China's soybean imports reached a record high of 1.392 billion tons. Brazil's soybean export volume in June is expected to be 1.408 billion tons. The USDA maintained its production forecasts for South American soybeans in the 2024/25 season [35][36][38] - **Inventory and Profit**: As of the end of this week, the domestic port's imported soybean inventory was about 5.9108 million tons. The domestic spot crushing profit fluctuated around the break - even point, and the futures crushing profit was slightly in the red [46] - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic soybean oil mill's soybean opening rate decreased slightly, but remained at a high level. The soybean meal inventory increased, and the contract volume also increased significantly. The opening rate of imported rapeseed oil mills decreased and was at a very low level, and the rapeseed meal inventory decreased [54][63] Part 2: Oil Market Analysis - **Market Trends**: International oils fluctuated within a range this week. US soybean oil fluctuated and closed higher, and Malaysian palm oil first declined then rose. Domestic oils showed a rotation effect, with wide - range fluctuations [70] - **International Oil Information**: China's edible vegetable oil imports in May were 462,000 tons. Malaysia's palm oil inventory in May reached an 8 - month high. The US bio - diesel and renewable diesel imports are expected to decrease significantly in 2025 [75][76] - **Weather in Southeast Asia**: Southwest monsoons brought moderate to heavy showers to Thailand and surrounding areas. Malaysia and Indonesia also had widespread showers, which were beneficial to oil palm areas [85] - **Inventory**: As of the 23rd week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.1504 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.85% [96] - **Price Relationships**: This week, the overall trend of oils was rapeseed oil > soybean oil > palm oil. The soybean - palm oil spread slightly rebounded. The oil - meal ratios of soybeans and rapeseed continued to decline, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread slightly decreased [113][119] Part 3: Market Outlook - **Seasonal Analysis**: Seasonal indices of various products such as US soybeans, soybean meal, and domestic oils and meals are presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn from these indices [133][135][137] - **Technical Indicators**: For the main contracts, the short - term indicators of soybean meal are bullish, while the medium - and long - term indicators are entangled. Rapeseed meal's short - and medium - term indicators are bullish, and the long - term indicator is entangled. Soybean oil's short - and medium - term indicators are entangled, and the long - term indicator is bearish. Palm oil and rapeseed oil's short -, medium -, and long - term indicators are all entangled [141] - **Fundamentals**: For protein meals, the international market has limited short - term weather speculation space, and the US trade policy is improving. The domestic market may see accelerated inventory accumulation of soybean meal, and the cost - driven effect of Dalian soybean meal is weakened. For oils, international oils are affected by geopolitics and bio - diesel policies, with wide - range fluctuations. Domestic oils follow international trends and should be traded in a band - trading manner [142]

Group 1: Port Performance - Multiple A-share listed port companies reported an increase in container throughput in May, while Guangzhou Port experienced a slight decline in cargo throughput [1] - Ningbo Port projected a container throughput of 4.53 million TEUs in May, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, and a cargo throughput of 107.6 million tons, up 7.7% [1] - Guangzhou Port's May container throughput is expected to reach 2.309 million TEUs, a 4.3% increase year-on-year, while cargo throughput is projected at 50.175 million tons, a slight decline of 0.3% [1] - Beibu Gulf Port reported a cargo throughput of 30.8633 million tons in May, a year-on-year increase of 6.43%, with container throughput reaching 881.3 thousand TEUs, up 10.79% [1] Group 2: Shipping Rates and Market Conditions - The China Export Container Freight Index rose by 0.9% year-on-year as of May 30, with the East America route increasing by 9.3% and the West America route by 4% [2] - Short-term demand for shipping on American routes remains strong due to tariff policy fluctuations and uncertain trade environments, but specific demand levels require further monitoring [2] - Nearly half of the port-listed companies reported a year-on-year increase in net profit for Q1, with Shanghai Port Group, Qingdao Port, and Ningbo Port showing growth rates of approximately 6%, 6.51%, and 4.54% respectively [2] Group 3: Operational Challenges - Beibu Gulf Port's management noted that the company faced challenges in revenue growth due to changes in cargo source structure and reduced high-value import/export trade [3] - Ningbo Port's management reported a 10.2% year-on-year increase in container throughput for the first quarter, ranking it among the top three global container ports [3] - The impact of the U.S. government's tariff policies on trade has led to a decrease in container throughput on American routes, while other routes continue to see growth [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View -中美互征关税缓和引导抢出口预期，国内电解铜社会库存量处于低位，但传统消费淡季来临，或使沪铜价格涨跌两难，建议投资者短线轻仓逢低试多主力合约，关注74600 - 76600附近支撑位及78500 - 80000附近压力位，伦铜在9000 - 9800附近支撑位及9600 - 9800附近压力位，美铜在4.3 - 4.5附近支撑位及5.0 - 5.5附近压力位 [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - 美国7月到期以短期为主国债规模分别为1.28 - 1.46万亿美元，美债集中到期或引发流动性冲击；5月ISM制造业PMI为49.5，低于预期和前值，因特朗普政府不确定的关税政策引发消费端通胀反弹担忧，使美联储降息预期时点仍在9/12月 [3][4] Upstream - 紫金矿业旗下莫阿·卡库拉铜矿5月28日因矿震暂停地下深矿；印尼自由港麦克莫兰公司8月17日被准许6个月内出口127万吨铜精矿但将被征收更高出口税；铜陵有色位于厄瓜多尔拉铁拉多铜矿二期6万吨产能或于26年下半年投产；巨龙铜矿新扩建二期200万吨/日扩建工程或于25年底投产；ACC Metals的硫化铜矿扩建项目将于2026年一季度投产，初期年产量为2.5万吨；国内6月铜精矿生产（进口）量环比或有增减，中国铜精矿进口指数为负且较上周升高；国内废铜进口窗口打开，但欧洲高品质废铜被限制出口，中国进口商仅能采购铜米或黄铜，中美贸易争端影响使贸易商尚未恢复直接进口美国废铜，国内电解铜与光亮及老化废铜价差为负或削弱废铜经济性，国内废铜6月生产（进口）量环比或减少；嘉能可位于菲律宾的PASAR铜冶炼厂已停产，位于智利的阿尔托诺特冶炼厂35万吨阳极铜产能因冶炼烧炉问题暂停生产至6月，紫金3.anov = Ikabul冶炼厂或于25年6月建成投产，年产60万吨阴极铜；国内6月粗铜检修产能或环比减少，国内6月粗铜生产量（进口量）环比或增加（减少）；江铜云源二期年产15万吨阴极铜项目3月底开工建设，建成后将实现26万吨产能，国内6月电解铜生产量环比或增加；印尼自由港旗下曼迪坎扬48万吨产能将于6月下旬恢复生产且12月达到满负荷生产，日本住友金属矿业计划10月对印尼冶炼厂进行为期6周检验，国内6月电解铜进口量环比或减少；进口窗口关闭限制国内电解铜进口量，中国保税区电解铜库存量较上周减少；中国电解铜社会库存量较上周减少；伦金所电解铜库存量较上周减少；国际部分贸易商仍在向美国港口运输约60万吨铜，使COMEX铜库存量较上周增加 [4] Downstream - 中国精铜杆（再生铜杆）产能开工率较上周升高，精铜杆企业原料（成品）库存量较上周增加，再生铜杆企业原料（成品）库存量较上周增加；中国铜电线电缆产能开工率较上周下降，企业原料（成品）库存量较上周减少（增加）；中国铜漆包线单量（产能开工率）较上周减少（下降）；中国黄铜棒产能开工率较上周下降；中美互征关税缓和和传统消费淡季来临交织，国内6月钢材企业产能开工率（生产量、进口量、出口量）环比或下降（增加、增加、减少），具体而言，电解铜制厂、再生铜制厂、电生铜板、固废铜流通有限和成品库存等方面复产受限，反向影响到部分企业，如铜板带厂、铜电线电缆、铜漆包线、铜板市、铜箔、钢管、黄铜棒等产能开工率或环比下降 [4] Market Data - **沪铜期货活跃合约**：2025年5月30日收盘价77600元，较昨日变动 - 530元；成交量87403手，较昨日增加7250手；持仓量172994手，较昨日减少1763手；库存34128吨，较昨日增加1963吨；SMM 1电解铜平均价78235元，较昨日变动 - 250元 [2] - **沪铜基差或现货升贴水**：沪铜基差635元，较昨日变动280元；广州电解铜现货升贴水15元，较昨日变动 - 50元；华北电解铜现货升贴水 - 130元，较昨日变动0元；华东电解铜现货升贴水50元，较昨日变动5元 [2] - **价差（近月与远月）**：沪铜近月 - 沪铜连一为330元，较昨日变动60元；沪铜连一 - 沪铜连二为180元，较昨日变动 - 40元；沪铜连二 - 沪铜连一为200元，较昨日变动 - 10元 [2] - **伦敦铜**：LME3个月铜期货收盘价（电子盘）2025年6月2日为9615美元，较昨日变动118美元；LME铜期货0 - 3个月合约价差为51.49美元，较昨日变动1.41美元；LME铜期货3 - 15个月合约价差为105.01美元，较昨日变动10.76美元；沪伦铜价比值为8.0707，较昨日变动 - 0.10 [2] - **COMEX铜**：铜期货活跃合约收盘价2025年6月2日为4.858美元，较昨日变动0.19美元；总库存量182626吨，较昨日增加2125吨 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market outlook for the second half of 2025 is characterized by a paradox of sufficient supply but potential localized shortages due to the form and location of the copper available [3][4]. Supply Dynamics - Global mine copper production is expected to increase by approximately 2.3% in 2025, exceeding 23.5 million tons, driven by projects like Kamoa-Kakula in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia [1]. - Refined copper production is projected to jump nearly 3% this year as smelters expand capacity, particularly in China [1]. - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) forecasts a surplus of 289,000 tons in 2025, more than double last year's surplus, indicating a third consecutive year of supply exceeding demand [1]. Refining Challenges - There is a bottleneck in the supply of copper concentrate, which is necessary for refining, leading to negative treatment charges for smelters [2]. - The shutdown of the Cobre Panama mine has exacerbated the concentrate supply tightness, potentially causing refined copper production to decline by 1.5% by 2026 unless scrap recovery increases [2]. Market Sentiment - Despite the apparent surplus, traders remain bullish due to historical underinvestment in large mines and the reallocation of global copper inventories due to trade policies [3]. - The U.S. warehouse inventories have surged to their highest levels since 2018, while futures exchange inventories have dropped to multi-year lows, indicating a complex supply situation [3]. Price Outlook - Experts anticipate that copper prices will continue to fluctuate rather than follow a single trend, with an average price expected to be around $9,500 per ton this year [4]. - Prices are projected to hover between $4.40 and $4.50 per pound in the latter half of the year, which is manageable for many manufacturers [4]. Potential Upside - Some analysts believe there is potential for copper prices to rise, particularly if global economic recovery, especially outside of China, gains momentum, potentially pushing prices above $10,000 per ton by 2026 [5]. - Resolution or easing of U.S.-China trade disputes could act as a bullish catalyst, releasing pent-up demand and narrowing price gaps [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Sino-US mutual tariff relaxation guides import and export expectations. The suspension of underground mining at the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine and the low domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, combined with the approaching traditional consumption peak season, may cause copper prices to fluctuate widely. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On May 27, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 78,210 yuan, down 60 yuan from the previous day; trading volume was 67,182 lots, a decrease of 10,339 lots; open interest was 127,084 lots, a decrease of 17,857 lots; and inventory was 34,961 tons, an increase of 2,128 tons [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount**: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,515 yuan, down 75 yuan; the Shanghai copper basis was 305 yuan, down 15 yuan; and the spot premium/discount in different regions showed various changes [2]. - **London Copper**: The LME 3-month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,596 US dollars, down 18 US dollars; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased; and the spreads of different contracts changed [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.745 US dollars, up 0.07 US dollars; total inventory was 178,963 tons, an increase of 4,356 tons [2]. Industry News - **M&A Information**: South African listed company Harmony Gold Mining's Australian subsidiary will acquire BC Copper for approximately 1.84 billion rand (equivalent to 1.03 billion US dollars), aiming to enhance free cash flow and improve solvency, subject to regulatory approvals [2]. - **Macro News**: The US Congress reached a budget resolution in April, including tax cuts and debt ceiling increases. The US manufacturing and services PMIs were higher than expected, while the consumer - end inflation CPI annual rate in April was lower than expected, which may lead the Fed to cut interest rates in September or December [2]. Upstream Situation - **Mine Production**: The Kamoa-Kakula copper mine under Zijin Mining suspended underground mining due to multiple mine tremors; the sulfide copper ore project of Vediktepe Polymetallic Mine under ACC Metals is expected to be put into production in the first quarter of 2008; several copper mines have expansion or production plans, which may affect the production and import of copper concentrates [3][4]. - **Smelting**: Some smelters have production disruptions or planned production, which may affect the production and import of crude copper and electrolytic copper. For example, the PKSBK copper smelter in the Philippines has stopped production, and the Maxi copper smelter in India may start production around mid - 2025 [4]. Downstream Situation - The high copper price has affected the new orders of copper products, causing the capacity utilization rates of copper rods, copper wires and cables, and other products to decline or be expected to decline [4]. Trading Strategy - Investors are advised to wait and see, paying attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper (74,000 - 76,000 and 78,500 - 80,000), London copper (9,000 - 9,300 and 9,600 - 9,800), and US copper (4.3 - 4.5 and 4.8 - 5.0) [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The easing of Sino-US mutual tariffs has led to expectations of rush exports, but the traditional consumption off-season is approaching, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has increased compared to last week, which may cause the furnace copper price to fluctuate widely. It is recommended that investors wait and see temporarily, paying attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On May 20, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 77,540 yuan, a decrease of 280 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 66,697 lots, a decrease of 15,718 lots; the open interest was 166,088 lots, a decrease of 5,147 lots; and the inventory was 45,738 tons, a decrease of 16,175 tons [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount**: The average price of SMN 1 electrolytic copper was 78,340 yuan, an increase of 230 yuan; the premium of anode copper was 800 yuan, an increase of 510 yuan; the spot premium/discount in Guangzhou was 190 yuan, a decrease of 80 yuan; in North China, it was 50 yuan, an increase of 20 yuan; and in East China, it was 250 yuan, a decrease of 15 yuan [2]. - **Spread (Near - Month and Far - Month)**: The spread between Shanghai copper near - month and Shanghai copper continuous first was 350 yuan, a decrease of 90 yuan; between Shanghai copper continuous first and Shanghai copper continuous second was 290 yuan, a decrease of 70 yuan; and between Shanghai copper continuous second and Shanghai copper continuous first was 190 yuan, a decrease of 40 yuan [2]. - **London Copper**: The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,554.5 US dollars, an increase of 31 US dollars; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0 tons, a decrease of 170,750 tons; the spread of LME copper futures 0 - 3 months contract was 3.16 US dollars, a decrease of 12.36 US dollars; and the spread of 3 - 15 months contract was 121 US dollars, a decrease of 29.50 US dollars [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.674 US dollars, an increase of 0.08 US dollars; the total inventory was 171,622 tons, an increase of 1,958 tons [2] Industry News - **Mine Expansion and Production**: The fluidized copper ore expansion project of ACC Metals' polymetallic mine will be put into production in Q1 2026, with an initial annual output of 25,000 tons. The second - phase 150,000 - ton production capacity of Mirado Mine under Tongling Nonferrous may be put into production in the second half of 2025. The second - phase 200,000 - ton/day project of Julong Copper Mine may be put into production by the end of 2026 [4]. - **Export Restrictions and Tax**: Indonesia's Freeport McMoRan was allowed to export 1.27 million tons of copper concentrate within 6 months but will be subject to higher export taxes [4]. - **Domestic Production and Import**: Domestic copper concentrate production and import volume in May may increase or decrease month - on - month. The import index of Chinese copper concentrate is negative but has risen compared to last week. The out - port volume and inventory of copper concentrate in Chinese ports have increased or decreased compared to last week [4]. - **Scrap Copper**: The negative spread between domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper weakens the economy of scrap copper, but the opening of the solid waste import window may lead to an increase or decrease in domestic scrap copper production and import volume. Scrap copper suppliers are reluctant to sell, resulting in a supply shortage [4]. - **Smelter Situation**: Glencore's Altonorte smelter in Chile has suspended production until May due to problems with the melting furnace. The Kaooor Kakula copper smelter may be completed and put into production in June 2025, with an annual output of 600,000 tons of anode copper [4]. Macroeconomic Situation - The US Senate and House of Representatives reached an agreement on the budget decision in April, including spending 5.5 trillion US dollars in the next ten years, raising the debt ceiling by 5 trillion US dollars, and the government reducing spending by 4 billion US dollars. The US PMI and employment data in May were better than expected, and the CPI annual rate in April was 2.3%, lower than expected and the previous value, which may lead to an interest rate cut by the Fed in September or December [3] Downstream Market - High copper prices have improved new orders, leading to an increase in the capacity utilization rate of China's copper rod (recycled copper rod) industry compared to last week. The raw material (finished product) inventory of copper rod enterprises has decreased (increased), and that of recycled copper rod enterprises has remained flat (decreased) [4]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper wire and cable industry (raw material and finished product inventory) has decreased (decreased, increased) compared to last week. The order volume and processing rate of copper foil have increased (slightly decreased) compared to last week [4]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's brass rod has increased compared to last week. Due to the easing of Sino - US mutual tariffs and the approaching traditional consumption off - season, the capacity utilization rate, production volume, import volume, and export volume of domestic steel enterprises in June may decline [4] Investment Strategy - It is recommended that investors wait and see temporarily, paying attention to the support levels of 74,000 - 78,000 yuan for Shanghai copper, 9,000 - 9,300 US dollars for London copper, and 4.3 - 4.5 US dollars for US copper, as well as the resistance levels of 78,500 - 80,000 yuan for Shanghai copper, 9,600 - 9,800 US dollars for London copper, and 4.8 - 5.0 US dollars for US copper [4]