Overall Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the continuation of policies aimed at promoting a unified national market and optimizing market competition, which is expected to have a lasting impact on the solar energy sector. The effectiveness of price support measures and the acceptance of prices by downstream power plants will influence the stock performance of related solar companies, particularly in segments with price elasticity such as silicon materials, glass, and BC batteries [3]. Solar Energy - The political bureau meeting has reiterated the importance of advancing the construction of a unified national market, which is expected to lead to a sustained "anti-involution" policy. The success of price support measures and the implementation of storage plans will be crucial for the stock performance of solar-related companies [3]. Hydropower - The market's understanding of Gas Insulated Lines (GIL) remains low, despite their necessity for interconnecting power stations and high-voltage transmission lines. The investment potential of GIL is significant, comparable to that of traditional hydropower turbines, with the first 550 kV C4 environmentally friendly GIL successfully put into operation by Pinggao Electric [3]. Wind Energy - Progress has been made in the provincial details of Document No. 136, with Shandong province planning its first bidding in August 2025. This is expected to improve bidding data across other provinces. Wind energy will also benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, with a general recovery in the bidding prices for wind turbine units anticipated in the first half of 2025 [3]. Solid-State Batteries - The outlook for solid-state batteries is positive, with a focus on fully solid-state battery equipment and lithium sulfide segments expected to benefit from new tenders initiated by major lithium battery manufacturers. The development of semi-solid batteries and modified electrolytes is also promising, aligning with the "anti-involution" logic and enhancing battery safety and technical standards [4]. Energy Storage - The recent introduction of pricing policies for large-scale electrochemical energy storage in Gansu is expected to counterbalance the gradual elimination of capacity leasing fees, improving the independent storage Internal Rate of Return (IRR). Other provinces are likely to follow suit, and the overall market for energy storage remains robust due to improved commercial models and high demand for energy consumption [4].

盘面概览 | | | 涨幅居前的板块 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国防军工 | 机械设备 | 有色金属 | 纺织服饰 | 传媒 | | 3.06% | 1.93% | 1.87% | 1.37% | 1.28% | | | | 跌幅居前的板块 | | | | 商贸零售 | 石油石化 | 社会服务 | 综合 | 建筑材料 | | -0.46% | -0.36% | -0.21% | -0.13% | -0.06% | 数据来源：Wind Wind数据显示，全市场超3300只个股上涨。 主要因素 Wind数据显示，板块题材方面，国防军工、机械设备、有色金属板块涨幅居前；商贸零售、石油石化、社会服务板块跌幅居前。受货币政策宽松预期、 资金面支撑、板块轮动三重因素驱动，内资承接为市场提供了短期韧性。 焦点板块 走强板块方面，国防军工、机械设备、有色金属板块走强。Wind数据显示，国防军工板块方面，国内十四五收官与十五五规划形成双轮驱动，国际上地 缘冲突推升了相关需求。机械设备方面，工信部稳增长工作方案即将落地，设备更新政策推动了需求释放，制造PMI重回扩张区间，这些 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - On August 4, the silicon iron 2509 contract closed at 5674, down 0.56%. On the spot side, the spot price of silicon iron in Ningxia was reported at 5500, down 50 yuan/ton. The macro - side saw Trump 2.0 make a military threat against Russia. With low - level operation of the start - up rate, the price of semi - coke in Ningxia on the cost side decreased, and the overall expectation of steel demand remained weak. The production profit of ferroalloys was negative, with the spot profit in Inner Mongolia at 180 yuan/ton and in Ningxia at 330 yuan/ton. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line was between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as an oscillating operation [2] - On August 4, the manganese - silicon 2509 contract closed at 5972, down 0.03%. On the spot side, the spot price of manganese - silicon in Inner Mongolia was reported at 5780, down 20 yuan/ton. Officially, it was announced that starting from August 8, the value - added tax on the interest income of newly issued national bonds, local bonds, and financial bonds would be restored. Fundamentally, the factory start - up rate rebounded, the inventory was moderately high. On the cost side, the port inventory of imported manganese ore decreased by 110,000 tons this period, and the downstream hot metal output was high. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia was - 120 yuan/ton and in Ningxia was - 30 yuan/ton. In the market, the procurement price of steel mills this month rebounded compared with the tender price. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line was between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as an oscillating operation [2] Group 3: Summary by Catalog Futures Market - The closing price of the SM main contract was 5972 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the closing price of the SF main contract was 5674 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan. The SM futures contract positions were 604,837 hands, up 17,425 hands; the SF futures contract positions were 410,505 hands, up 10,430 hands. The net positions of the top 20 in manganese - silicon were - 89,799 hands, up 4,687 hands; the net positions of the top 20 in silicon iron were - 36,866 hands, up 1,153 hands. The SM 1 - 9 month contract spread was 86 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the SF 1 - 9 month contract spread was 142 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The SM warehouse receipts were 77,611, down 243; the SF warehouse receipts were 21,930, down 112 [2] Spot Market - The price of Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,820 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the price of Inner Mongolia silicon iron FeSi75 - B was 5,760 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan. The price of Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qinghai silicon iron FeSi75 - B was 5,460 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The price of Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,800 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Ningxia silicon iron FeSi75 - B was 5,710 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan. The average value of the manganese - silicon index was 5,837 yuan/ton, up 149 yuan; the basis of the SF main contract was 36 yuan/ton, down 112 yuan; the basis of the SM main contract was - 152 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The price of South African ore: Mn38 lump at Tianjin Port was 34 yuan/ton - degree, down 3 yuan; the price of silica (98% in the northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 1,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu) was 670 yuan/ton, unchanged. The manganese ore port inventory was 4.385 million tons, down 110,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The manganese - silicon enterprise start - up rate was 42.18%, up 0.60%; the silicon iron enterprise start - up rate was 33.76%, up 0.43%. The manganese - silicon supply was 190,820 tons, up 4,340 tons; the silicon iron supply was 104,400 tons, up 2,100 tons. The manganese - silicon factory inventory was 164,000 tons, down 41,000 tons; the silicon iron factory inventory was 65,500 tons, up 3,400 tons. The national steel mill inventory of manganese - silicon was 14.24 days, down 1.25 days; the national steel mill inventory of silicon iron was 14.25 days, down 1.13 days [2] Downstream Situation - The demand for manganese - silicon from the five major steel types was 123,715 tons, up 45 tons; the demand for silicon iron from the five major steel types was 19,922 tons, down 143.7 tons. The blast furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills was 83.48%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.22%, down 0.56%. The crude steel output was 8.3184 million tons, down 336,100 tons [2] Industry News - On August 1, Wang Renfei, Director of the Comprehensive Department of System Reform of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that the government would regulate the disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with laws and regulations, promote the governance of production capacity in key industries, standardize bidding and tendering, strengthen the fairness review of bid - winning results, standardize local investment promotion behaviors, strengthen the disclosure of investment promotion information, and carry out the cleanup and rectification of market access barriers [2] - On August 1, Jiang Yi, Director of the Policy Research Office and Spokesperson of the National Development and Reform Commission, revealed at a press conference that the list of 800 billion yuan of "two major" construction projects this year had been fully issued, and 735 billion yuan of central budget - internal investment had been basically issued [2] - Trump 2.0 made a military threat against Russia for the first time, saying that he ordered the deployment of two US nuclear - powered submarines to the relevant area [2] - The long - term "price war" will eventually become a money - burning game, eroding the innovation and development space of enterprises. The market needs innovation, quality, and efficiency rather than just low prices. As the Chinese economy moves towards high - quality development, the transformation from "trading price for volume" to "quality improvement" has become an inevitable path for various industries [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since early July 2025, the "anti-involution" policy led to a rapid rise in the domestic coal chemical industry, with methanol futures 2509 contract rising by 7.36% at most. After the policy expectation was digested, the coal chemical futures sector declined, and the methanol futures 2509 contract fell by 5.00% last week and continued to be weak this week. The 9 - 1 month spread widened, showing the weakness of the near - month contract [6]. - With the digestion of the macro - optimistic expectation, the bullish sentiment in the domestic commodity futures market weakened, and the coal futures prices declined, dragging down the methanol futures prices. The supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still high, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The weak supply - demand structure may lead to a downward shift in the price center. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract may maintain a weak and volatile trend [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Preface: "Anti - involution" Policy Driving Weakens, Coal Chemicals Fall Collectively - Since early July 2025, the "anti - involution" policy led to production cuts in over - capacity industries. The domestic coal chemical industry rose rapidly, with coking coal futures rising by 60% at most and coke futures rising by 32% at most. The methanol futures 2509 contract rose by 7.36% at most. After nearly a month of rise, the coal chemical futures sector declined as the policy expectation was digested [11]. 3.2 Chapter 1: Methanol Oscillates Downward, and the Month - spread Discount Widens - With the digestion of the "anti - involution" policy and the implementation of the Politburo meeting, the coal futures prices declined, and the cost support for methanol collapsed. Last week, the methanol futures 2509 contract declined from 2521 yuan/ton to 2393 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 5.00%. This week, it continued to be weak, reaching 2373 yuan/ton at one point. The 9 - 1 month spread widened to 97 yuan/ton, showing the weakness of the near - month contract [12]. 3.3 Chapter 2: Policy Bullish Expectation is Fulfilled, and Coal Adjusts - The Politburo meeting on July 30 provided long - term support for coal prices by strengthening the expectation of supply contraction. The monetary policy helped reduce the production cost of coking enterprises. Since coal is the main raw material for methanol and accounts for over 70% of the domestic methanol production process, the methanol price was also affected. After the bullish expectation was fulfilled, the coal futures declined, and the cost support for methanol collapsed [14][15]. 3.4 Chapter 3: The Profit Margin of Domestic Coal - to - Methanol Production Shrinks Significantly - In August, the production profit margin of domestic coal - to - methanol enterprises declined. As of August 1, the cost profit margin of coal - to - methanol in Northwest China was about 23.29%, a week - on - week decrease of 13.24%; in Shandong, it was about 12.29%, a week - on - week decrease of 13.66%; in Inner Mongolia, it was about 16.28%, a week - on - week decrease of 13.97% [16]. 3.5 Chapter 4: The Domestic Methanol Supply Pressure Continues to Increase - In July 2025, although there were concentrated maintenance in domestic methanol production areas, the domestic methanol price did not improve significantly due to the high inventory of the middle and lower reaches. The average domestic methanol operating rate was 81.92% as of August 1, 2025, slightly increasing week - on - week, slightly decreasing month - on - month, and significantly increasing year - on - year. The weekly methanol output was 193.02 million tons, slightly increasing week - on - week, significantly decreasing month - on - month, and significantly increasing year - on - year. Considering the new installations to be put into operation in the second half of the year, the supply pressure is expected to remain high [24]. 3.6 Chapter 5: More Overseas Methanol Ships Arrive at Ports, and the Import Pressure Increases - In the third quarter, the import expectation in August 2025 was significantly raised. It is estimated that the import supply will exceed 1.35 million tons, with about 750,000 tons from Iran and over 600,000 tons from non - Iranian sources. The overall overseas inventory is high, and the spot demand in Europe, India, and Southeast Asia is weak. Spot from non - Iranian Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Europe is being shipped to China. If there is no increase in MTO load and no good restocking demand in the inland before the peak season, the port inventory may accumulate rapidly [25]. 3.7 Chapter 6: Downstream Consumption is in the Off - season, and the Weak Demand Factor is Prominent - Since the third quarter, the traditional and olefin demand for domestic methanol has weakened. As of August 1, 2025, the operating rate of formaldehyde was 28.55%, slightly increasing week - on - week; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 5.72%, slightly increasing week - on - week; the operating rate of acetic acid was 88.79%, slightly decreasing week - on - week; the operating rate of MTBE was 54.84%, slightly decreasing week - on - week. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 75.72%, slightly decreasing week - on - week and month - on - month. The futures profit margin of methanol to olefin was - 87 yuan/ton, significantly increasing week - on - week and slightly increasing month - on - month [29]. 3.8 Chapter 7: The Supply - Demand Structure Weakens, and Port Inventory Accumulation Intensifies - In July, the inland methanol inventory decreased slightly, with the inventory at 324,700 tons as of July 31, 2025, a week - on - week decrease of 15,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16,900 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 75,600 tons. However, due to more overseas imports and weak domestic downstream demand, the port inventory accumulation pressure was obvious. As of August 1, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 650,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 63,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 150,600 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 158,000 tons [41]. 3.9 Chapter 8: Summary - With the digestion of the macro - optimistic expectation, the bullish sentiment in the domestic commodity futures market weakened, and the coal futures prices declined, dragging down the methanol futures prices. The supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still high, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The weak supply - demand structure may lead to a downward shift in the price center. The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [43].

Core Viewpoint - The global energy transition is entering a critical phase, with China's photovoltaic (PV) industry shifting from "scale expansion" to "quality leap" [1][3][10] Industry Overview - China's PV industry has established the most competitive supply chain globally, maintaining the highest production and installation capacity for over a decade [2] - In the first half of 2025, China is expected to add 212.21 GW of new PV installations, a 107% year-on-year increase, with a global installation forecast of 570-630 GW, of which China will account for over 45% [2] Technological Advancements - The N-type battery has become the market mainstream, with TOPCon technology accounting for over 75% of production capacity [2] - Leading companies like Longi Green Energy and Aiko Solar are innovating with technologies such as HIBC and BC, achieving significant efficiency improvements [2][7] Market Challenges - The PV industry faces structural contradictions, including overcapacity and intense price competition, leading to significant price fluctuations and profit margin compression [4][5] - As of July 2024, the production capacity across the main industry chain is expected to exceed 1200 GW, while global demand is only around 580 GW, resulting in a supply-demand imbalance [4] Policy and Industry Response - A comprehensive "anti-involution" campaign is underway, focusing on policy guidance and industry self-regulation to combat low-price competition and promote quality improvement [6][7] - The Central Economic Committee has emphasized the need for a unified national market and the orderly exit of outdated production capacity [6] Future Outlook - The PV industry is expected to transition from "volume competition" to "technology competition," with a focus on specialized applications and market differentiation [8] - The industry is predicted to experience a consolidation phase, enhancing overall competitiveness and addressing excess capacity [8][9] - With ongoing policy support and technological breakthroughs, the domestic PV industry is anticipated to overcome current challenges and contribute significantly to global energy transition efforts [10]

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2025 年 8 月 4 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/8/4 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 原油 | 工业硅 | 碳酸锂 | | | | 沥青 | 多晶硅 | 十债 | | | | 燃油 | 氧化铝 | 三十债 | | | | 橡胶 | 铝 | 五债 | | | | 甲醇 | 尿素 | 二债 | | | | 鸡蛋 | 焦煤 | 玻璃 | | | | 棉纱 | 铁矿石 | | | | | 棉花 | 螺纹钢 | | | | | 乙二醇 | 焦炭 | | | | | 短 ...

螺纹钢：市场情绪降温，宽幅震荡 2025 年 8 月 4 日 热轧卷板：市场情绪降温，宽幅震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 来源：Mysteel，同花顺，国泰君安期货研究所 【宏观及行业新闻】 7 月 31 日钢联周度数据：产量方面，螺纹-0.9 万吨，热卷+5.3 万吨，五大品种合计+0.65 万吨；总 库存方面，螺纹+7.65 万吨，热卷+2.79 万吨，五大品种合计+15.39 万吨；表需方面，螺-13.17 万吨，热 卷-8.31 万吨，五大品种合计-15.9 万吨。（数据来源：上海钢联） 【中共中央政治局:依法依规治理企业无房竞争。推进重点行业产能治理】会议指出要坚定不移深化改 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | （元/吨） 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB ...

2025 年 8 月 4 日 宏观政策落地 钢价震荡为主 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 钢材周报 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/8 ⚫ 宏观面：中美经贸会谈达成共识，双方将继续推动已暂 停的美方对等关税24%部分以及中方反制措施如期展期 90天。中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，会议强调， 做好下半年经济工作，要保持政策连续性稳定性，增强 灵活性预见性。纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，推动市 场竞争秩序持续优化。依法依规治理企业无 ...

结合产业动态和市场表现，我们近期内推荐关注： 证券研究报告 | 投资策略研究*专题报告 2025 年 08 月 04 日 投资策略研究 潜龙勿用也勿疑——周度策略行业配置观点 一周热点事件复盘：中美对等关税实施暂缓，中国 7 月政治局会议节奏 平稳，中国网信办就 H20 安全问题约谈英伟达，美国降息预期再度推迟。 本周（2025 年 7 月 28 日-2025 年 8 月 1 日）A 股在诸多不及预期的因素 下发生回调，多数主要指数收跌，上证指数周跌 0.94%，深证成指周跌 1.58%，创业板指周跌 0.74%，科创 50 周跌 1.65%，全市场日均成交额 1.81 万亿元，显示当前市场分歧较大。宏观驱动因素方面，中美同意将对等关 税暂停措施展期 90 天，缓解短期贸易摩擦担忧。此前美方"对等关税" 原定 8 月 1 日生效，展期降低出口产业链不确定性。而在国内政策端，7 月政治局会议强调"宏观政策持续发力、适时加力"，未提增量刺激，重 心转向"落实落细现有政策"。会议首次提出"推进重点行业产能治理"， 推动钢铁、建材等周期板块后半周回调。本周 A 股在内外因素交织下呈现 "科技强、周期弱"的分化格局。中 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of "capacity governance" and "technological innovation" in driving economic growth and addressing challenges in China's economy [4] - The meeting highlighted that while the economy shows resilience and progress, it still faces significant risks and challenges [4] - The focus is on deepening reforms and fostering new competitive industries through technological innovation and integration with industrial innovation [4] Group 2 - A new round of supply-side reforms is emerging, benefiting leading companies in the chemical sub-industry as old capacities are phased out [5] - The chemical industry is currently experiencing low capacity utilization and profit margins, with a utilization rate of only 71.9% and a profit margin of 12.95% as of Q2 2025 [5][6] - The peak of new capacity additions in the chemical industry has passed, leading to a decrease in capital expenditure, which is expected to improve industry conditions [6] Group 3 - Technological innovation is crucial for the country's future development, with a focus on "domestic substitution" in materials [7] - The industry has made significant progress in overcoming technological barriers set by foreign manufacturers, particularly in semiconductor materials and high-performance new materials [7] - The emphasis is on investing resources in critical materials that have not yet achieved domestic production to ensure safety and self-sufficiency [7]