Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - As the "anti - involution" sentiment cools and the Politburo meeting's impact fades, the market sentiment becomes rational, and the futures prices start to weaken. If the demand cannot be effectively restored, the steel prices may decline, and the futures prices will gradually return to the supply - demand logic [3]. - The overall demand for the black sector is weak. Although the supply pressure is not significant, the demand growth is limited. The market is influenced by short - term sentiment, and prices will eventually move towards the fundamentals [3][6][10]. - For different products, the fundamentals vary. For example, steel products have high inventory and weak demand; the supply of iron ore is in the traditional off - season, and the demand has support; the over - capacity situation of industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon remains unchanged; glass and soda ash have inventory pressure and weak demand [3][6][11][14][16][18][19]. 3. Summary by Product Steel Products - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3250 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton (1.151%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 579 tons, and the position increased by 515 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3465 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton (1.079%), with a decrease of 1454 tons in registered warehouse receipts and 17218 lots in position [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar showed a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with social inventory accumulating for two consecutive weeks and the increase accelerating this week. Hot - rolled coils had both supply and demand decreasing, and inventory accumulation was significant. Currently, the inventory of both rebar and hot - rolled coils is rising, but the demand is insufficient [3]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 789.00 yuan/ton, up 2.00% (+15.50), with an increase of 37210 lots in position to 39.27 million lots. The weighted position was 92.48 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 778 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 37.83 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 4.58% [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The latest shipment and arrival volume of overseas iron ore both decreased. The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly due to blast furnace maintenance. The port inventory fluctuated slightly, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased slightly. The overall demand was slightly weak, but there was still demand support [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Prices**: On August 11, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) rebounded, closing up 0.89% at 6100 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed up 1.00% at 5830 yuan/ton [8]. - **Analysis and Suggestions**: The market is affected by sentiment, and prices fluctuate greatly. It is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively in the short term. Hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities according to their own situations. The over - capacity pattern of manganese silicon remains unchanged, and there is a risk of weakening demand in the future [9][10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polycrystalline Silicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract (SI2511) of industrial silicon closed at 9000 yuan/ton, up 3.33% (+290), with an increase of 15809 lots in weighted position to 549604 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract was 200 yuan/ton; the 421 price increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 50 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamentals**: The problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand remain. The production rate is expected to increase in August, and the demand can provide some support, but new inventory pressure may occur. It is expected that the price will fluctuate weakly [14]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon** - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract (PS2511) of polycrystalline silicon closed at 52985 yuan/ton, up 4.32% (+2195), with a decrease of 23165 lots in weighted position to 337163 lots. The spot price remained flat, and the basis of the main contract was - 5985 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamentals**: It is expected to increase production in August, and the downstream silicon wafer production also increases, but the silicon material is likely to accumulate inventory. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to participate cautiously [16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Prices and Inventory**: The spot price in Shahe decreased by 4 yuan, and in Central China by 30 yuan. As of August 7, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.847 million weight - boxes, up 3.95% month - on - month and down 8.18% year - on - year. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term and follow the macro - sentiment in the long term [18]. - **Soda Ash** - **Prices and Inventory**: The spot price was stable, and the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8762 million tons as of August 11, up 0.60% from last Thursday. The supply increased, and the demand was weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long term [19].

7月份，"反内卷"呼声愈演愈烈，引发市场对多个品种供给侧改革的强烈预期，助力相关期货品种价格 快速上涨。玻璃作为主要建材品种，也在十大重点行业稳增长领域之中，7月主力合约盘面上涨幅度最 高达36%，位列前茅。但由于缺乏具体措施落地，叠加市场"反内卷"情绪有所降温，盘面出现快速回 落。截至8月8日，2509合约收盘价为1063元/吨，较最高点1370元/吨下跌307元/吨，下跌幅度为22.4%。 从现货价格来看，由期货上涨叠加社会库存偏低引发的投机性补库支撑现货价格上涨，但涨幅不及期货 盘面。在期货价格下跌后，期现商低价出售手中货源冲击玻璃厂价格，导致市场进入消化中下游货源阶 段。近期部分区域厂家库存快速增加，价格再次回落。截至8月8日，沙河市场大板价格为1181元/吨， 基差为118元/吨。 与7月初中央财经委员会第六次会议提出的"依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，推动落后产能有序退 出"相比，7月30日中央政治局会议删除了"低价"二字，改为"依法依规治理企业无序竞争"，同时将"推 动落后产能有序退出"调整为"推进重点行业产能治理"。市场期待的供给侧强力改革预期骤然降温，且 浮法玻璃基本面没有实质性的改善，盘面急 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents 2. Report Core View - The focus in the market currently is on mine - end disturbances. If there is a short - term shutdown for rectification and then resumption after the mine certificates are compliant, considering the large recent downstream stocking and the supply from surrounding compliant mines, the impact on the balance sheet is limited. There may be a further push to raise the futures price from a market sentiment perspective, but the previous price increase has already factored in the shutdown impact, so the expected upside is limited. If the mine certificates are renewed smoothly, the supply side remains in a loose pattern. Given large downstream stocking, full previous pricing, small downstream production increase, the futures price may correct downward and return to the fundamental logic. Due to uncertainty and market rumors, investors are advised to participate cautiously [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compound Prices - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 71,900 yuan with a daily increase of 800 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 69,800 yuan with a daily increase of 800 yuan [1] Lithium Futures - Lithium carbonate 2508 futures contract closed at 75,300 yuan, up 7.57%; lithium carbonate 2509 at 76,640 yuan, up 7.82%; lithium carbonate 2510 at 76,900 yuan, up 7.67%; lithium carbonate 2511 at 76,960 yuan, up 7.73%; lithium carbonate 2512 at 77,120 yuan, up 7.38% [1] Lithium Ore Prices - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) price is 777 yuan with a daily increase of 20 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) at 1,120 yuan with a daily increase of 30 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) at 1,800 yuan with a daily increase of 50 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) at 5,675 yuan with a daily increase of 125 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) at 6,650 yuan with a daily increase of 150 yuan [1][2] Cathode Material Prices - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 32,850 yuan with a daily increase of 280 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 145,320 yuan with a daily increase of 60 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 116,995 yuan with a daily increase of 50 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 122,585 yuan with a daily increase of 50 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,100 yuan; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main futures contract is - 5,060 yuan, with a change of - 3,860 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 260 yuan, with a change of 20 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 320 yuan, with a change of 60 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 142,418 tons, with an increase of 692 tons; the smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 50,999 tons, with a decrease of 959 tons; the downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 48,159 tons, with an increase of 2,271 tons; the other inventory (weekly, tons) is 43,260 tons, with a decrease of 620 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 18,829 tons, with an increase of 2,386 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 69,521 yuan, with a profit of 1,349 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 77,368 yuan, with a profit of - 8,388 yuan [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Last Friday, the overall atmosphere in the commodity market declined slightly, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and oscillating trend. With the landing of the Politburo meeting and the cooling of the "anti - involution" sentiment, the market sentiment became more rational, and the futures market trend started to weaken. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may not maintain the current level, and the futures prices may gradually return to the supply - demand logic. It is recommended to continuously monitor the recovery progress of terminal demand and the support of cost factors for finished steel prices [3]. - For iron ore, the current supply is in the traditional off - season of overseas mines, and the pressure is not significant. The steel mill profitability rate continues to rise, and although the short - term increase in hot metal may be limited, there is no sign of a rapid decline. It is necessary to pay attention to the change in terminal demand and the possible risks on the raw material side [6]. - Regarding manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the "anti - involution" has not changed the over - supplied industrial pattern of manganese silicon. In the future, attention should be paid to the possible marginal weakening of demand. For ferrosilicon, it is expected that there will be a marginal weakening of demand in the future. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, while hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities according to their own situations [10][11]. - For industrial silicon, the problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient effective demand still exist. Although the demand in August can provide some support, it is necessary to pay attention to the resumption of production in major production areas. For polysilicon, it is expected to increase production in August, and the inventory is likely to accumulate. It is recommended that both long and short positions participate with caution [14][16]. - For glass, it is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, if there are substantial policies in the real estate sector, the futures prices may continue to rise; otherwise, supply - side contraction is required for a significant increase. For soda ash, it is expected to oscillate in the short term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long term [18][19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3213 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (- 0.55%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 94,978 tons, a net increase of 1487 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.61211 million lots, a net decrease of 16,057 lots. The summary price of rebar in Tianjin was 3320 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Shanghai, it was 3340 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3428 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.34%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 70,915 tons, unchanged. The position of the main contract was 1.392227 million lots, a net decrease of 36,360 lots. The summary price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3450 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3450 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar showed a pattern of both supply and demand increasing this week, and social inventory has accumulated for two consecutive weeks, with the increase further expanding this week. Hot - rolled coils showed a pattern of both supply and demand decreasing, and inventory accumulation was significant. Currently, the inventories of both rebar and hot - rolled coils are on the rise, steel mill profits are good, and production remains high, but the demand - side support is insufficient [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Information**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 790.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.38% (- 3.00), and the position changed by - 27,288 lots to 308,100 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 916,400 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 770 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 28.02 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 3.43% [5]. - **Fundamentals**: In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume decreased, with both Australian and Brazilian shipments declining. The shipment volume from non - mainstream countries increased, and the arrival volume increased. In terms of demand, the daily average hot metal production was 240.32 tons, a decrease of 0.39 tons. Port inventory fluctuated slightly, and steel mill imported ore inventory increased slightly. Terminal data showed that the apparent demand for five major steel products weakened, and inventory increased [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price Information**: On August 8, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) oscillated, closing down 0.30% at 6046 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 94 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed down 1.06% at 5772 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 128 yuan/ton over the futures [8]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, it is recommended that investment positions wait and see, while hedging positions can participate opportunistically. The over - supplied industrial pattern of manganese silicon has not changed, and there may be a marginal weakening of demand in the future. For ferrosilicon, there has been no significant change, and it is expected that there will be a marginal weakening of demand [9][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) was 8710 yuan/ton, up 0.64% (+ 55). The weighted contract position changed by - 1995 lots to 533,795 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract was 390 yuan/ton. The price of 421 was 9700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract was 190 yuan/ton. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [13][14]. - **Polysilicon**: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) was 50,790 yuan/ton, up 1.36% (+ 680). The weighted contract position changed by - 15,312 lots to 360,328 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 44.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 46 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 47 yuan/kg, unchanged. The basis of the main contract was - 3790 yuan/ton. It is expected to increase production in August, with inventory likely to accumulate. It is recommended that both long and short positions participate with caution [15][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price in Shahe was 1181 yuan, unchanged; in Central China, it was 1190 yuan, unchanged. As of August 7, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.847 million weight boxes, a net increase of 2.348 million weight boxes (+ 3.95%) from the previous period, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.18%. The inventory days were 26.4 days, an increase of 0.9 days from the previous period. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and follow macro - sentiment in the long term [18]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price was 1235 yuan, down 20 yuan from the previous day. As of August 7, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 13,300 tons (0.72%) from Monday. The downstream demand was tepid, mainly for rigid - demand procurement. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long term [19].

Core Viewpoint - In July, the "anti-involution" policy led to a narrowing of the PPI month-on-month decline to -0.2%, while the CPI for industrial consumer goods improved, contributing to a third consecutive month of core CPI year-on-year recovery. However, the impact of supply-side capacity management on prices is more moderate compared to 2016, with PPI year-on-year decline remaining at a two-year low of -3.6% and CPI year-on-year turning flat [2][19]. Group 1: CPI Analysis - The CPI year-on-year remained flat at 0.0% in July, primarily dragged down by food items, while core CPI rose to 0.8% [4]. - Food prices decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, contributing a marginal drag of 0.30 percentage points to the overall CPI [8]. - Seasonal supply of fresh vegetables and fruits was abundant, leading to a significant year-on-year decline in their prices, with fresh vegetables down 7.6% and fresh fruits up 2.8% [8][11]. Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI month-on-month decline narrowed from -0.4% to -0.2% in July, but the year-on-year decline remained at -3.6%, indicating limited effectiveness of the "anti-involution" measures on price uplift [19]. - Key industries such as coal, steel, and cement have implemented capacity management measures, which have led to a reduction in the month-on-month price declines for these sectors [19]. - International factors continue to pressure export-related prices, while domestic oil and non-ferrous metal prices have seen increases due to external input factors [20]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The "anti-involution" measures have led to a faster increase in futures prices compared to spot prices, indicating market expectations are ahead of actual supply-side adjustments [24]. - Looking ahead, the diminishing drag from tailing factors may lead to improvements in PPI year-on-year in August and CPI year-on-year in the fourth quarter, but sustained inflation recovery will require stronger policy support and a focus on expanding domestic demand [24]. - The current supply-side price uplift is more challenging and softer compared to 2016, with a broader range of industries involved, including upstream raw materials and downstream sectors [24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, based on their projected earnings and valuation metrics [3]. Core Viewpoints - Steel demand is entering a seasonal downturn, with a focus on production restrictions in North China. The recent announcement of new coal safety regulations has led to rising prices in the coking coal sector. Despite high supply levels, steel mill profits are declining. Anticipation of production cuts around the September 3 military parade may temporarily suppress steel supply [3][6]. - Long-term capacity management remains a key theme, with a combination of market-oriented and administrative measures expected to optimize crude steel supply. The gradual release of new iron ore capacity is anticipated to restore profitability for steel companies [3][6]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of August 8, 2025, steel prices showed mixed trends. The price of 20mm HRB400 rebar in Shanghai was 3,330 CNY/ton, down 20 CNY/ton from the previous week. Hot-rolled steel increased by 40 CNY/ton to 3,470 CNY/ton, while cold-rolled steel rose by 10 CNY/ton to 3,870 CNY/ton [1][9]. Production and Inventory - The total production of five major steel varieties reached 8.69 million tons, an increase of 17,900 tons week-on-week. Rebar production rose by 101,200 tons to 2.2118 million tons. Total social inventory increased by 201,600 tons to 9.6149 million tons [2][3]. Profitability - Steel profits have decreased, with estimated gross margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel declining by 67 CNY/ton, 16 CNY/ton, and 28 CNY/ton respectively. Electric arc furnace steel margins also fell by 22 CNY/ton [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment: Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel in the flat steel sector; Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co. in the special steel sector; and Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, Wujin Stainless in the pipe materials sector. It also suggests monitoring high-temperature alloy companies like Fushun Special Steel [3][6].

Group 1: PMI and Economic Indicators - July manufacturing PMI recorded at 49.3%, remaining below the expansion threshold for four consecutive months, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Construction PMI decreased by 2.2 percentage points to 50.6%, still above the threshold, indicating a slowdown in expansion[3] - Service sector PMI fell by 0.1 percentage points to 50%, indicating stagnation[3] Group 2: Price Trends and Profit Margins - Prices of various commodities increased significantly in July, with coking coal up 32.2%, iron ore up 10.4%, glass up 16.0%, and soda ash up 8.6%[9] - The main raw material purchase price index rose above the threshold for the first time since March, reaching 51.5%, potentially supporting PPI in July[9] - The gap between the main raw material purchase price index and the factory price index widened from 2.2% to 3.2%, indicating potential pressure on corporate profits[9] Group 3: Demand and Inventory Trends - New orders, new export orders, and backlogged orders all declined in July, with new orders down 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%[10] - Raw material inventory index and finished goods inventory index fell to 47.7% and 47.4%, respectively, suggesting a slowdown in production replenishment and active destocking by companies[10] - The production index recorded at 50.5%, down 0.5 percentage points, reflecting a marginal slowdown in production activities[10] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - Ongoing external trade frictions and internal growth stabilization policies remain key focus areas, with upcoming negotiations on tariff agreements between China and the U.S.[25] - The political bureau meeting emphasized "orderly exit of backward production capacity," which may impact production progress in key industries[28] - Risks include potential unfavorable outcomes from U.S.-China tariff negotiations and slower-than-expected implementation of growth stabilization policies[29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is still uncertain about whether the mica mines in Jiangxi will stop production. If there is a short - term suspension for rectification and then复产 after the mining certificates are compliant, considering the large recent downstream stocking and the supplement from surrounding compliant mines, the impact on the balance sheet is expected to be limited. There may be a further increase in futures prices from a market sentiment perspective, but the upside is limited as the previous increase has already priced in the impact of the suspension [2]. - If the mining certificates are successfully renewed and production does not stop, the supply will remain in a loose pattern. Considering the large downstream stocking, full previous pricing, and small increase in downstream production scheduling, the futures prices may be revised downwards and return to the fundamental logic [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 71,100 yuan, with a daily increase of 150 yuan; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 69,000 yuan, with a daily increase of 150 yuan [1]. Lithium Futures Contracts - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2508 is 70,000 yuan, with a daily increase of 3.24%; for 2509, it is 71,920 yuan, with a 5.3% increase; for 2510, it is 72,200 yuan, with a 5.31% increase; for 2511, it is 72,300 yuan, with a 5.36% increase; for 2512, it is 72,580 yuan, with a 5.34% increase [1]. Lithium Ore - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 757 yuan, with a daily increase of 9 yuan. The price of lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1090 yuan, with a daily increase of 25 yuan; for lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%), it is 1750 yuan, with a 60 - yuan increase; for phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%), it is 5550 yuan, with a 275 - yuan increase; for phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%), it is 6500 yuan, with a 300 - yuan increase [1][2]. Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 32,570 yuan, with a 35 - yuan increase; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 145,260 yuan, with a 30 - yuan increase; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 116,945 yuan, with a 50 - yuan increase; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 122,535 yuan, with a 20 - yuan increase [2]. Price Spreads - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2100 yuan, with a change of 0.2 yuan; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 1200 yuan, with a change of - 2530 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 280 yuan, with a change of - 80 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 380 yuan, with a change of - 20 yuan [2]. Inventory - The total weekly inventory is 142,418 tons, with an increase of 692 tons. The weekly inventory of smelters is 50,999 tons, with a decrease of 959 tons; the weekly inventory of downstream is 48,159 tons, with an increase of 2271 tons; the weekly inventory of others is 43,260 tons, with a decrease of 620 tons; the daily registered warehouse receipts are 16,443 tons, with an increase of 1420 tons [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 68,214 yuan, and the profit is 1863 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 75,753 yuan, and the profit is - 7557 yuan [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Since late July, the spot and futures prices of rebar have weakened. The main futures price has fallen by 4.43% from its high, and the spot price in mainstream areas has dropped by 30 - 90 yuan/ton. The correction of optimistic sentiment and the accumulation of industrial contradictions in the steel market have led to the decline of steel prices. Currently, the demand for rebar remains weak, the supply benefits are limited, and the fundamental contradictions are accumulating. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate under pressure, and attention should be paid to changes in production restriction policies [2][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Optimistic Sentiment Correction - Since July, the dominant logic in the ferrous metal market has been the policy - driven positive expectations from "anti - involution." However, with limited policy implementation, the previous optimistic sentiment has been corrected. The Politburo meeting on July 30 changed the wording on capacity governance, and did not directly mention real - estate policies, weakening market expectations. The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from June, affected by the traditional off - season and natural disasters [3] - From the perspective of key industries, the PMIs of the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries were above the critical point, while the PMI of the consumer goods industry decreased by 0.9 percentage points from June, and that of the high - energy - consuming industry increased by 0.2 percentage points. The production and operation activity expectation index in July was 52.6%, up 0.6 percentage points from June, indicating increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises [4] Supply Benefits Limited - As of the week ending August 1, the total inventory of rebar was 546290 tons, an increase of 7650 tons from the previous week, but still at a low level in recent years, with a year - on - year decrease of 196080 tons (26.41%). The rebar market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and the fundamental contradictions are easy to accumulate. The weekly output of rebar is relatively low at 211060 tons, a decrease of 22830 tons from the previous high, mainly due to long - process steel mills' product transformation [5] - The positive effect of low supply is limited. Some steel mills that previously produced billets have returned to rebar production, and the profitability of short - process steel mills has improved significantly. The proportion of profitable steel mills among 90 independent electric arc furnaces is 52.89%, and the loss ratio is only 12.4%. Their operating rate has reached a high for the year, which will increase rebar supply. However, steel mills around Beijing may suspend production to ensure the smooth progress of the September 3 parade, which may boost the steel market sentiment [5][6] Demand Remains Weak - Due to weak demand, industrial contradictions in rebar continue to accumulate. As of the week ending August 1, the weekly apparent demand for rebar was 203410 tons, a new low, down 5.67% year - on - year. Cement out - bound volume and concrete shipment volume, which directly reflect terminal demand, are also weak, down 10.43% and 4.91% year - on - year respectively [7] - The real - estate sales are sluggish, and there is no substantial improvement in the downstream industries of rebar. The weak demand pattern remains unchanged. The increase in steel prices in July stimulated the release of investment demand, and the increase in the number of rebar warehouse receipts on the SHFE may further increase the pressure on the demand side [7]

Macro Perspective - The GDP growth rate for the first half of the year reached 5.3% supported by policies such as "two new" and "two heavy" as well as the overseas "export grabbing/transshipment effect" [3] - The urgency for short-term policy adjustments has decreased, with the focus shifting to the implementation of existing policies [3] Macro Liquidity - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rates in July, raising concerns about a potential U.S. economic recession due to subsequent downward revisions of non-farm employment data [3] - Domestic policies will be adjusted based on changing risk challenges, with a focus on the implementation of existing monetary policies [3] Capital Market Liquidity - The A-share market has seen a recovery in investor sentiment, with increased trading volume and turnover rates, leading to rapid expansion in margin financing [4] - The overall liquidity in the A-share market is expected to continue its incremental process, supported by policy factors [4] A-share Market Outlook - Despite short-term challenges from mid-year performance reports, the "anti-involution" policy is expected to open up profit expectations [4] - A-share valuations may not be considered undervalued, but there is potential for price expectations to improve, supporting valuation increases [4] Industry Opportunities - Investment opportunities can be found in sectors such as TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications), pharmaceuticals, and defense industries, driven by AI trends and policy support [4] - The financial sector is expected to benefit from the stabilization of the capital market [4] - Resource sectors, including non-ferrous metals and chemicals, may see investment opportunities due to capacity management initiatives [4]