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ZimVie (ZIMV) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-05-08 21:32
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for the first quarter of 2025 was $112 million, representing a decrease of 5.2% in reported rates and a decline of 4.1% in constant currency [18] - Adjusted EBITDA was $17.6 million, translating to a 15.7% adjusted EBITDA margin, reflecting a 41% increase year-over-year [21] - Adjusted earnings per share attributable to continuing operations was $0.27, a 238% increase from $0.08 in the prior year [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Dental implant sales declined low single digits in Q1, consistent with the overall market performance, but showed improvement in March and April [9][10] - Biomaterials portfolio grew just over 1% during the quarter, reflecting ongoing investments in innovation [12] - Digital dentistry business, excluding oral scanner sales, grew high single digits, with the implant concierge service growing 11% year-over-year [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. net sales were $65.8 million, a decline of 2.8% compared to the prior year, driven by lower implant sales and oral scanners [18] - International net sales were $46.2 million, a decrease of 8.5% on a reported basis, impacted by lower implant sales and headwinds from various factors [19] - The company emphasized a focus on the Japanese market, which is seen as a significant growth opportunity with a healthy premium implant market [43] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on improving and streamlining manufacturing and supply chain processes, reducing corporate infrastructure, and refocusing on proprietary premium products [6][8] - A strategic acquisition of a distributor in Costa Rica aims to enhance local market presence and reduce third-party selling costs [15][23] - The company plans to continue prioritizing debt reduction while remaining open to opportunistic acquisitions [24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the dental market's resilience and the potential for growth in dental implants, which are still considered under-adopted [68] - The company anticipates a moderate market recovery and successful execution of commercial strategies in the latter half of 2025 [25] - Management is confident in their manufacturing capabilities and flexibility to mitigate tariff impacts [59][61] Other Important Information - The company has incorporated the estimated $3 million annual tariff costs into their guidance and has plans to mitigate these costs [6][25] - The company reiterated its full-year 2025 revenue guidance range of $445 million to $460 million, reflecting a potential decline to moderate growth [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide more details on the uptick in implant units sold in April? - Management noted that April showed resilience with improvements in same-store sales and the success of the new immediate molar implant launch [31][32] Question: What is the current pricing trend in the dental market? - Management indicated that the premium implant market has been less price competitive, allowing for selective pricing strategies to offset tariff impacts [34][36] Question: What are the reasons for the greater decline in international sales compared to the U.S.? - Management highlighted several headwinds affecting international sales, including foreign exchange impacts and a focus shift away from China [40][41] Question: What is the opportunity size for the implant concierge service in Japan? - Management believes the implant concierge service could significantly enhance revenue growth in Japan, improving workflow and accelerating implant adoption [43][44] Question: What actions have been taken to strengthen the supply chain? - Management expressed confidence in their manufacturing capabilities and flexibility, having moved significant operations to mitigate tariff risks [59][61]
Wolverine World Wide(WWW) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-05-08 12:32
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q1 2025 was $412 million, exceeding expectations of approximately $395 million, with a year-over-year growth of over 5% on an ongoing basis and nearly 7% on a constant currency basis [9][35] - Adjusted gross margin increased to 47.3%, up 80 basis points compared to the previous year, driven by a healthier sales mix and lower promotional activity [38] - Adjusted diluted earnings per share improved from $0.05 in Q1 2024 to $0.18 in Q1 2025, above the outlook of $0.10 [38] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Saucony achieved a revenue growth of 30% year-over-year in Q1, with strong contributions from all regions and channels, particularly in North America [10][36] - Merrell's revenue grew by 13% compared to Q1 last year, with significant contributions from core product franchises [15][36] - Sweaty Betty's revenue declined by 16% in Q1, aligning with expectations, but showed improvement in gross margin due to a shift towards full-price sales [36][22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's international business grew mid-teens year-over-year in Q1, indicating strong performance outside the U.S. [30] - U.S. retail sell-through remained strong throughout April, with similar reports from international regions [27] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on transforming its culture and building new capabilities to compete effectively in the market [24] - Strategic investments are being made in brand momentum, with a particular emphasis on Saucony and Merrell, while also addressing challenges in the Wolverine brand and Sweaty Betty [19][21] - A diversified and nimble supply chain is being leveraged to mitigate risks associated with tariffs and to optimize product delivery [28][31] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the company's prospects despite uncertainties in the marketplace, particularly regarding tariffs and consumer sentiment [26][49] - The decision to withdraw full-year guidance for 2025 was made due to the dynamic nature of the operating environment, but management remains confident in the current order book and DTC trends [39][40] - The company is taking a proactive approach to navigate challenges, focusing on profitability while continuing to invest in brand growth [31][44] Other Important Information - The company has initiated a search for new leadership for the work group as part of its ongoing strategic adjustments [21] - Significant investments are planned for Saucony in 2025, marking the largest investment year since its acquisition [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on Saucony and Merrell business for the full year - Management indicated that sourcing diversification efforts have reduced reliance on China, and they feel good about the momentum for 2025, with no material changes since April 2 [54][56] Question: Details on price increases to mitigate tariff impacts - Price increases were implemented strategically across brands, with mid-single digit increases for specific products, but these are not expected to fully offset tariff impacts [65][66] Question: Demand planning for the back half of the year - The company is closely monitoring consumer demand and adjusting inventory levels accordingly, with a cautious approach in certain areas while remaining bullish in others [77][79] Question: Promotional activities and margin improvements for Merrell - Management acknowledged ongoing promotional activities but emphasized efforts to reduce them, with a focus on improving gross margins over time [81][82] Question: Breakdown of international business revenue - Management directed to the investor presentation for insights on regional revenue dispersion, indicating a significant portion of revenue is generated outside the U.S. [86]
远信工业(301053) - 301053远信工业投资者关系管理信息20250508
2025-05-08 10:16
证券代码: 301053 证券简称:远信工业 尊敬的投资者,您好!公司在环保型纺织机械研发上的成果 有:Y9000 双层定形机、定形机废气热能回收高温油烟处理技术 被列入第十六批中国印染行业节能减排先进技术推荐目录,BSN 系列溢流染色机被列入第十七批中国印染行业节能减排先进技 术推荐目录等。后续规划请关注公司相关披露信息,感谢您的关 注。 4、纺织机械行业竞争激烈,远信工业如何通过品牌建设提升市 场影响力? 远信工业股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 编号:2025-001 | 投资者关系活动 | □特定对象调研 □ 分析师会议 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 类别 | □ 媒体采访 √ 业绩说明会 | | | | | | □ | 现场参观 | | | | | □ 其他 (请文字说明其他活动内容) | | | | | 参与单位名称及 | 参与业绩说明会的投资者 | | | | | 人员姓名 | | | | | | 时间 | 2025 年 月 8 日 (周四) 下午 15:00~17:00 | | 5 | | | 地点 | 公司通过全景网"投资者关系互动平台 ...
沪上阿姨登陆港交所:高增长背后的隐忧与下沉市场的突围战
Xin Lang Zheng Quan· 2025-05-08 03:32
Core Viewpoint - Hu Shang A Yi officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on May 8, 2025, becoming the sixth new tea beverage company to go public, following brands like Nayuki and Mi Xue Bing Cheng. The stock price surged significantly on its debut, reflecting strong market enthusiasm, but underlying financial data and competitive dynamics reveal multiple concerns regarding its high growth potential [1][6]. Group 1: Market Position and Growth Strategy - Hu Shang A Yi's core competitive advantage lies in its rapid penetration of lower-tier markets, with a total of 9,176 stores by the end of 2024, a 73% increase from 2022, and 50.4% of stores located in tier-three cities and below [2]. - The company differentiates itself from competitors like Mi Xue Bing Cheng by targeting the mid-range price segment (10-18 HKD), while the latter focuses on extreme low pricing (5-10 HKD) [2]. - The gross merchandise volume (GMV) growth in China's lower-tier market for ready-to-drink tea reached 20.9% in 2023, significantly outpacing the 12.5% growth in first-tier cities [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Risks - Despite an increase in overall GMV from 6.068 billion HKD in 2022 to 10.736 billion HKD in 2024, the average daily GMV per store declined from 1,917 HKD in 2023 to 1,717 HKD in 2024, indicating intensified competition and insufficient consumer spending power in lower-tier markets [4]. - The company's revenue for 2024 decreased by 1.9% to 3.285 billion HKD, with net profit dropping by 15.2% to 329 million HKD, highlighting vulnerabilities in profitability [4]. - 99.7% of Hu Shang A Yi's stores are franchise-operated, with a closure rate of 6% in the first half of 2024, exceeding the industry average of 4.5%, raising concerns about franchisee management and profitability [4]. Group 3: Product Diversification and Market Share - The company launched over 100 new products annually, including fresh fruit tea and coffee, and has expanded its brand portfolio with sub-brands like "Hu Coffee" and "Tea Waterfall" to tap into niche markets [3]. - In 2023, Hu Shang A Yi held a market share of only 4.6%, ranking fifth, trailing behind competitors like Mi Xue Bing Cheng (15.2%) and Gu Ming (8.7%) [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to allocate 25% of its IPO funds for digital upgrades, 20% for supply chain improvements, and 15% for store expansion, aiming to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs [7]. - To navigate the competitive landscape, Hu Shang A Yi needs to strengthen its market presence in northern regions, expand its product offerings in line with consumer trends, and explore partnerships for differentiated marketing [7]. - The tea beverage industry is currently in a phase of stock competition, with a net closure of 17,800 tea shops nationwide in 2024, necessitating strategic adaptations for Hu Shang A Yi to maintain its market position [7].
Light & Wonder(LNW) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-05-07 21:30
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported consolidated revenue growth for the sixteenth consecutive quarter, with a 2% increase to $774 million compared to the prior year, driven by gaming and iGaming businesses [20][21] - Net income was $82 million, resulting in diluted net income per share of $0.94, up from $0.88 in the prior year [21] - Consolidated EBITDA grew by 11% to $311 million, with a consolidated EBITDA margin of 40%, a 300 basis point increase year over year [21][30] - Adjusted NPATA increased by 11% year over year to $117 million, with adjusted NPATA per share rising 21% to $1.35 [21][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Gaming revenue reached $495 million, a 4% uplift, with EBITDA growing 9% to $254 million, reflecting a margin expansion of 200 basis points to 51% [22][23] - Gaming operations generated $173 million in revenue, a 5% increase year over year, with an average revenue per day of over $48 [23] - SciPlay revenue was $202 million, with Quick Hit Slots achieving record performance, contributing to a 3% EBITDA growth to $64 million [26][27] - iGaming revenue increased 4% year over year to $77 million, with EBITDA growing 8% to a record $27 million [29] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The North American installed base increased by approximately 500 units sequentially, totaling over 34,000 units, with 51% of the fleet classified as premium [6][23] - The company regained the number one position in Australia for ship share, supported by strong game franchises [7] - The U.S. and Canada markets saw GGR increases of 3011% year over year, indicating robust growth in iGaming [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on operational excellence, a comprehensive product roadmap, and reinvesting in R&D for sustainable growth [4][5] - A strategic acquisition of Grover Gaming's charitable gaming asset is expected to enhance the company's role in the global games market [16][17] - The company aims to maintain a high return on investment while expanding its direct-to-consumer platform [11][55] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the gaming industry's resilience despite potential macroeconomic challenges [5][34] - The company is committed to achieving its 2025 consolidated EBITDA target of $1.4 billion, despite tariff headwinds [34] - Management noted that GGR remains a critical metric, with strong performance observed across U.S. markets [84] Other Important Information - The company has implemented measures to mitigate tariff impacts, including diversifying the supply chain and pulling forward inventory [89][91] - The direct-to-consumer platform has seen significant growth, now accounting for over 13% of revenue [11][54] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of tariffs on business - Management indicated that tariffs are currently manageable, with strategies in place to mitigate costs and maintain revenue targets [40][41] Question: U.S. gaming operations yield - Management noted that weather-related factors impacted yields, but overall trading has returned to normal [48][49] Question: SciPlay business and DTC strategy - Management expressed excitement about a recent favorable ruling regarding alternative payment methods, which will enhance the DTC strategy [54][55] Question: International gaming business performance - Management acknowledged a decline in international installed base due to tough comparisons from the previous year but remains optimistic about future contributions [61][62] Question: Update on dual listing strategy - Management confirmed ongoing discussions regarding an Australian listing but indicated a cautious approach due to market uncertainties [70][72] Question: Pathways to achieving EBITDA guidance - Management reiterated the importance of maintaining momentum in gaming operations and optimizing costs to achieve the $1.4 billion EBITDA target [76][80]
7-Eleven新任CEO:顾客挑剔带给他灵感
财富FORTUNE· 2025-05-07 13:35
例如,达克斯表示,通过优化供应链并借助连锁品牌的全球覆盖优势可以降低成本,而单纯降低食品价 格只会导致顾客流失。 他说道:"日本市场的业务根基在于创新。" 图片来源:Kiyoshi Ota/Bloomberg via Getty Images 上周五,7-Eleven首位外籍候任首席执行官斯蒂芬·海耶斯·达克斯表达了对公司的信心,他认为即使经 济放缓,这家日本连锁便利店仍将继续吸引精打细算的顾客。 但达克斯拒绝对当前正在研究的各项投资计划细节置评,包括加拿大Alimentation Couche-Tard公司提出 的收购计划。达克斯是美国人,其母亲是日本人。 他表示,公司有一个特别委员会正在"完全客观地"研究各种选择,但他并非该特别委员会的成员。 目前担任董事的达克斯在7-Eleven母公司柒和伊控股(Seven & i Holdings Co.)的东京总部对少数记者 表示:"整个进程正朝着非常积极的方向推进。" 他出任首席执行官的任命,仍需在5月获得股东批准。过去一年,柒和伊控股的股价累计上涨逾2%。 达克斯精通日语和英语。他表示,他决心借鉴在沃尔玛(Walmart)、优衣库(Uniqlo)及其他零售商 的 ...
Kontoor(KTB) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-05-06 13:32
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported flat global revenue compared to the prior year, consistent with expectations, with adjusted gross margin expanding by 200 basis points to 47.7% due to lower input costs and favorable mix [29][34] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) was $1.20, including an $0.11 impact from acquisition-related stock-based compensation, while excluding this expense, adjusted EPS was $1.31, a 13% increase compared to the prior year [37][49] - Inventory decreased by 12% to $443 million, with a strong focus on managing working capital prudently [38] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Wrangler's global revenue increased by 3%, with a notable 40% growth in the female segment, while Lee's global revenue decreased by 8% as brand repositioning continues [15][18][32] - The female business of Wrangler, now at 10% of global revenue, is expected to drive long-term growth opportunities [16] - Lee's U.S. revenue decreased by 8%, but digital sales grew by 12%, indicating a shift towards online engagement [33][19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. market remains the largest outdoor apparel and footwear market, with significant growth opportunities identified for Helly Hansen, expected to contribute approximately $425 million to full-year revenue [6][24] - International revenue for Wrangler increased by 4%, driven by a 6% growth in wholesale [31] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The acquisition of Helly Hansen is expected to enhance growth, cash flow, and capital allocation options, with a focus on increasing operating margins and leveraging global supply chain efficiencies [5][9][27] - The company aims to establish itself as an employer of choice in the industry, emphasizing talent retention and cultural fit with Helly Hansen [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted an increase in macro volatility but expressed confidence in the company's operational agility and ability to navigate challenges [12][41] - Recent trends in POS (point of sale) have shown improvement, with March and April indicating a positive shift after a slowdown in February [30][41] Other Important Information - The company expects full-year revenue to be in the range of $3.06 billion to $3.09 billion, representing growth of 17% to 19%, with organic revenue growth expected at 1% to 2% [43][44] - The adjusted gross margin outlook for the full year is now expected to be between 45.9% and 46.1%, reflecting an increase compared to the previous year [47] Q&A Session Summary Question: State of U.S. Consumer - Management characterized the U.S. consumer as resilient, with positive trends observed in March and April, indicating a recovery from earlier volatility [60][63] Question: Guidance for 2Q and 2026 Outlook - The company expects 2Q revenue growth of approximately 4%, with organic growth driven by new programs and distribution expansion [45][66] Question: Lee Brand Transition - Management expressed confidence in the Lee brand's transition, highlighting improvements in product quality and digital engagement, with expectations for growth in 2026 [76] Question: Gross Margin Drivers - The significant gross margin outperformance was attributed to a favorable mix, lower product costs, and benefits from Project Genius, with expectations for continued positive contributions [77][79] Question: Tariff Impact and Mitigation - The unmitigated tariff impact for 2025 is now estimated at $50 million, with proactive measures being implemented to offset potential costs [51][84]
点评报告强化供应链布局,仓储尾程、供应商持续优化
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-05 15:25
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 8.124 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.74%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 19.2% to 334 million yuan [1] - The company is optimizing its supply chain and enhancing its warehousing capabilities, particularly in North America, which is expected to accelerate growth [2][3] - The company has introduced new product lines and improved its marketing strategies, which are anticipated to drive steady growth post-tariff adjustments [5][11] Financial Performance Summary - For Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.396 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.62%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 56% to 56 million yuan [1] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.091 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with a net profit of 111 million yuan, up 10% [1] - The company expects revenues of 9.769 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 20.25%, and net profits of 388 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 16.45% [11] Product and Market Performance - The furniture segment generated 4.198 billion yuan in revenue, up 37% year-on-year, while the home goods segment saw a 36% increase to 2.953 billion yuan [2] - The company has established a strong market position in Europe, with revenue of 4.896 billion yuan, a 31% increase, and in the US, revenue reached 3.017 billion yuan, up 39% [3] - The company is diversifying its sales channels, with Amazon contributing 5.37 billion yuan in revenue, a 31% increase, and independent sites growing by 58% to 214 million yuan [4] Supply Chain and Product Development - The company is enhancing its supply chain by relocating some operations to Southeast Asia, which is expected to reduce costs while maintaining quality [5] - In 2024, the company launched several new product lines and received 31 international design awards, indicating a commitment to improving product design capabilities [5] Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued revenue growth, projecting revenues of 12.034 billion yuan and net profits of 547 million yuan by 2026, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 23.19% and 40.89% [11] - The ongoing optimization of the Southeast Asian supply chain is expected to mitigate tariff impacts and strengthen long-term competitive advantages [11]
海信家电(000921):季度营收延续增长,业绩实现大幅提升
Changjiang Securities· 2025-05-05 13:15
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - In the first quarter of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 24.838 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.76%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.127 billion yuan, up 14.89% year-on-year, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.008 billion yuan, an increase of 20.27% year-on-year [2][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and profit in Q1 2025, with operating revenue of 24.838 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.127 billion yuan, reflecting strong growth in both domestic and international markets [2][5] - The gross profit margin improved by 0.27 percentage points to 21.41%, primarily due to optimized sales structure [11] - Operating profit for Q1 2025 was 1.414 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.61%, with an operating profit margin of 5.69%, up 0.53 percentage points [11] Market and Business Strategy - The company is actively pursuing governance and supply chain reforms, expanding overseas markets, and enhancing brand influence through sports marketing [11] - The company aims to transition from a compressor-focused supplier to a comprehensive thermal management system supplier for electric vehicles, which may open new business opportunities [11] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a high growth trajectory, with projected net profits of 3.858 billion yuan, 4.401 billion yuan, and 5.025 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 9.92, 8.69, and 7.61 [11]
Mettler-Toledo(MTD) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-05-02 12:30
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Sales in Q1 2025 were $884 million, a decrease of 3% in local currency, and a 5% decline on a U.S. dollar reported basis [8][12] - Adjusted EPS for the quarter was $8.19, an 8% decrease from the prior year, while reported EPS was $7.81 compared to $8.24 in the prior year [13][14] - Gross margin was 59.5%, an increase of 30 basis points, with an estimated expansion of 90 basis points excluding shipping delays [11][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Laboratory sales decreased by 3%, while Industrial sales declined by 1%, with Core Industrial down 6% and Product Inspection up 8% [10] - Service sales increased by 6% in local currency during the first quarter [11] - Excluding shipping delay impacts, Laboratory sales grew by 5%, Industrial grew by 2%, and Food Retail declined by 5% [10][11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Local currency sales declined by 1% in The Americas, 7% in Europe, and 2% in Asia Rest of the World, with flat sales in China [9][10] - Excluding shipping delay recoveries, local currency sales grew by 3% in The Americas, 4% in Europe, and 3% in Asia Rest of the World, including 3% growth in China [9][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on mitigating the impact of global trade disputes and tariffs, estimating annual tariff costs of approximately $115 million [7][16] - The strategy includes supply chain optimization, cost savings, price increases, and surcharges to offset tariff impacts [16][32] - The company aims to leverage its diverse product portfolio and innovative solutions to navigate market uncertainties and capitalize on growth opportunities [29][33] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating uncertainties due to a strong culture of operational excellence and agility [7][28] - The outlook for 2025 assumes slower market conditions, particularly in China, with expectations of flat to low single-digit growth in various segments [17][20] - Management highlighted the importance of automation and digitalization trends in the industrial market, despite current softness [54][55] Other Important Information - Adjusted free cash flow for the quarter was $180 million, a 1% increase on a per-share basis [14][22] - The company expects total amortization to be approximately $72 million and interest expense to be $72 million for the year [21][22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on revenue growth forecast in China - For 2025, revenue in China is expected to be down slightly, with lab business up low single digits and industrial business down low single digits [35][36] Question: Impact of onshoring initiatives - The company is engaging with customers regarding onshoring but does not expect significant immediate impact on business [38][40] Question: Breakdown of tariff impacts and mitigation efforts - The company estimates $50 million in tariff exposure from China and $250 million from other imports, with mitigation strategies including pricing adjustments [44][47] Question: Customer behavior regarding orders and tariffs - There has not been significant pull forward in orders due to tariffs, with customers not highlighting early placements [59][60] Question: Services growth outlook - Services growth was 6% in Q1, with expectations for mid to high single-digit growth for the full year [96] Question: Guidance for revenue growth and tariffs - Q2 is expected to be the low point of the year, with a cautious outlook due to uncertainties, particularly in China [83][84]