Group 1: Economic Performance - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, with online retail sales growing at 8.5%, outpacing offline consumption [1] - The "trade-in" policy significantly boosted retail sales in categories such as home appliances (up 53%), communication equipment (up 33%), cultural and office supplies (up 30.5%), and furniture (up 25.6%) [1] - Real estate market transactions remain sluggish, with a 10.7% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment from January to May, indicating weakened investment attributes [2] Group 2: New Consumption Trends - New consumption formats are emerging as key drivers, with companies like Mixue Ice City, Pop Mart, and Pang Donglai successfully capturing young consumer demand and promoting domestic brands globally [2] - Pop Mart's stock price surged over 11 times in 2024, highlighting the market potential for innovative consumer products [2] Group 3: Trade and Investment - In May, exports grew by 6.3% year-on-year, while imports increased by 2.5%, demonstrating resilience in trade [2] - China is diversifying its export markets, reducing reliance on the U.S. from 18% to 14%, and increasing the share of high-value-added products [2] - The export performance of new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and lithium batteries is strong, with automotive exports surpassing Japan, making China the global leader [2] Group 4: Inflation and Policy Outlook - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.1% year-on-year in May, marking three consecutive months of negative growth, indicating a need for policies to enhance consumer capacity [3] - There are expectations for increased domestic demand stimulus policies in the second half of the year, including expanding the trade-in program and possibly issuing consumption vouchers [3]

Group 1 - The retail sales of passenger cars in China reached 1.932 million units in May 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.3% and a month-on-month increase of 10.1% [1] - Cumulative retail sales for the year reached 8.811 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of 9.1% [1] - The retail market has shown a strong growth trend, with May 2025 sales surpassing the peak level of 1.81 million units in May 2018 by 6% [1] Group 2 - The automotive market has been buoyed by the "two new" policies, with local consumption promotion policies being implemented across various provinces [3] - As of May 31, the number of applications for the old-for-new vehicle subsidy reached 4.12 million, with May's applications estimated at 1.23 million, a 13% increase from April [3] - Approximately 70% of private car buyers benefited from the old-for-new policy, indicating a shift towards consumption upgrades [3] Group 3 - The automotive industry is undergoing significant changes in product structure, user demand, and channel development, necessitating proactive measures from dealers and industry players [3] - Dealers are encouraged to leverage favorable policies to explore new revenue streams and adapt their strategies accordingly [4] - The importance of digital transformation and the shift from sales to service in the automotive dealership model is emphasized, with a focus on utilizing digital marketing and data assets [4] Group 4 - The relationship between manufacturers and dealers is evolving, with a need for harmonious partnerships to adapt to the new market dynamics [5] - The automotive industry is facing challenges such as excessive dealership networks and profitability issues, leading to a necessary industry consolidation [5] - The establishment of exit mechanisms in dealership contracts is proposed to create a fairer and more orderly brand authorization cooperation model [6]

央视网消息：国家信息中心最新发布的多项先行指标显示，今年5月我国经济多领域"热力"升腾，折射出经济向好向"新"、活力强劲。首先来看投资，5 月份，政府投资持续加力，各类项目落地呈现提速态势。 国家信息中心工业园区生产热度指数显示，5月该指数同比增长21.2%，较上月提升0.3个百分点，生产活力维持在高位运行，意味着产业集聚效应在不 断增强，产业链、供应链的稳定性与协同性持续提升，显示出了产业发展的强劲动力。 其中，传统行业开工热度普涨。国家信息中心基于31种工业产品开工率构建的工业品开工热度指数同比上涨1.0个百分点，环比上涨1.4个点。纺织、化 工、钢铁、塑料等主要品类产品指数提升明显，显示出传统产业在市场需求的拉动以及政策的助力下，正加快复苏与转型升级的步伐。 此外，企业创新活力持续迸发。国家信息中心关于初创企业、技术创新型企业的经营活力指数，5月同比均实现20%以上的增长，增速较上月提升显 著。 最新数据显示，5月份，全国挖掘机指数为47.34%。从省份来看，有16个省份正在"提速快跑"，安徽、北京、浙江、吉林、辽宁的开工率位列全国前 五。 从区域来看，东北地区开工率达到了60.39%，位居各地区第一。 ...

Core Insights - The e-commerce logistics index in China rose to 111.6 points in May, indicating a steady increase in both supply and demand [1][2] - The total business volume index for e-commerce logistics reached 130.2 points, marking a 0.8 point increase from the previous month [1] - The rural e-commerce logistics business volume index also increased to 129.6 points, reflecting a 0.6 point rise [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Both supply and demand sides showed steady growth, with the total business volume index and rural business volume index hitting new highs for the year [2] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy boosted demand for home appliances and communication equipment [2] - Companies are enhancing their supply capabilities in anticipation of mid-year promotional activities, as indicated by a 0.2 point increase in the personnel index [1] Logistics Efficiency - The logistics timeliness index rose to 101.2 points, surpassing 100 for the first time this year, indicating improved service efficiency among e-commerce logistics companies [1] - The inventory turnover rate index increased by 0.2 points, suggesting faster inventory turnover as demand rises [1] - The market feedback remains positive, with a 0.4 point increase in the satisfaction index [1] Future Outlook - The easing of monetary policy is expected to provide significant support for the implementation of consumption-promoting policies, enhancing the vitality of the e-commerce market [2] - With major e-commerce platforms preparing for mid-year shopping promotions, the logistics index in June is anticipated to rise further [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In May, the month - on - month decline of PPI remained the same as in April, and the year - on - year decline of CPI also stayed unchanged. However, after excluding the impact of supply factors such as oil prices and food, marginal new structural changes emerged [1][9]. - In terms of PPI, the drag effect based on trade eased after excluding the 0.2 - percentage - point drag of oil prices. The PPI of export - oriented industries improved marginally, and the price of PPI durable consumer goods manufacturing industry rebounded [1][9]. - In terms of CPI, food performed better than the seasonal level, but the upward momentum of core consumer goods prices continued to weaken. Attention should be paid to the launch of a new round of consumption - promotion policies [2][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 May Price Trend: Potential Changes Behind the "Unchanged" Trend - **PPI**: The month - on - month decline in May remained at - 0.4%. After excluding the 0.2 - percentage - point drag of oil prices, the drag effect based on trade eased. The PPI of export - oriented industries improved marginally after the progress of the China - US trade meeting in May. The price of PPI durable consumer goods manufacturing industry rebounded, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1% in May and the year - on - year decline narrowing from 3.7% in April to 3.3% [1][9][11]. - **CPI**: Food performed better than the seasonal level, but the upward momentum of core consumer goods prices continued to weaken. Food supply tightening supported prices, short - term consumption demands such as tourism and clothing continued to be released, while prices of rent, furniture, and cars linked to residents' long - term income were still falling. Core consumer goods have dragged down CPI for two consecutive months after excluding the impact of gold prices, and a new round of consumption - promotion policies may be launched [2][13]. 3.2 May CPI: Food and Tourism Perform Better than Seasonal Levels, but Month - on - Month Decline Continues Due to Oil Price Drag - **Overall Situation**: In May 2025, the listing of fresh vegetables supported the food item, tourism in non - food items performed better than the seasonal level. However, affected by oil prices, durable consumer goods, and rent, CPI declined month - on - month to - 0.2% and remained at - 0.1% year - on - year. The factors affecting CPI month - on - month change from high to low were: services (0)> livestock meat (- 0.01pct)> fresh produce (- 0.03pct)> core consumer goods (- 0.03pct)> energy (- 0.13pct) [2][16]. - **Food Item**: The month - on - month decline of the food item fell back to around - 0.2%, stronger than the seasonal level, affecting CPI to decline by about 0.04 percentage points. Beef prices rose due to reduced imports, while pork prices fell. Fresh vegetable prices decreased, while limited supplies of fresh fruits and aquatic products supported food prices [2][19]. - **Non - food Item**: The month - on - month decline of the non - food item exceeded the seasonal level, falling to - 0.2%, affecting CPI to decline by about 0.16 percentage points. Oil prices dropped, clothing was the main supporting item in core consumer goods, while furniture and car prices still had a drag. Travel - related prices in services were resilient, but rent was still weak [23][24][25]. 3.3 May PPI: Oil Price Drag Increases, Price Decline of Export Industries Narrows, and Month - on - Month Decline Remains at - 0.4% - **Overall Situation**: The month - on - month decline of PPI remained around - 0.4%, mainly dragged down by production materials, while the performance of living materials improved. In May, production material prices decreased by 0.6% (- 0.1pct), and the prices of living materials turned from negative to flat [30]. - **By Industry**: The number of industries with price declines among industrial producers was still around two - thirds. The drag factors were the crude oil industry chain, building - material - related prices, and energy prices such as coal and gas. The supporting factors were export - related industries such as automobiles and machinery, and the non - ferrous metal industry [4][31][36].

Core Viewpoints - The improvement in consumer demand stabilizes the core CPI, but supply-side factors significantly suppress inflation readings [3][68] Group 1: Key Features of Core CPI Stabilization - Feature 1: The core commodity PPI shows a significant rebound, primarily due to improved demand and a lack of further tariff impacts. In May, the core commodity PPI increased by 0.3 percentage points to -1.4% [3][68] - Feature 2: Consumption promotion policies combined with rising gold prices lead to an increase in core commodity CPI. In May, the core commodity CPI rose by 0.1 percentage points to 0.2% [4][19] - Feature 3: The increase in holiday days in May allows for a more substantial release of service demand, pushing the core service CPI higher. The service CPI rose by 0.2 percentage points to 0.5% in May [4][22] Group 2: Outlook and Regular Tracking - The combination of policy reinforcement and recovery in domestic demand is expected to alleviate inflationary pressures, but supply-side changes must be monitored for their impact on price readings [5][33] - The overall CPI in May was -0.1%, slightly better than market expectations, with food supply showing a mixed performance [5][27] - The non-food CPI saw improvements in transportation and communication, while fuel prices for transportation significantly declined [51][71]

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, matching the previous value and slightly better than the expected decrease of 0.2%[1] - The PPI fell by 3.3% year-on-year, a decline from the previous value of 2.7% and worse than the expected 3.2%[1] Group 2: Core CPI Stabilization Features - Core commodity PPI rebounded by 0.3 percentage points to -1.4%, driven by improved demand and a moderation in tariff impacts[2] - The core commodity CPI increased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.2%, supported by consumption policies and rising gold prices, which boosted jewelry prices by 40.1%[3] - Service CPI rose by 0.2 percentage points to 0.5%, aided by increased holiday days in May, enhancing service demand[4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Continued policy support and recovery in domestic demand are expected to alleviate inflationary pressures, but supply-side constraints remain a concern[5] - The ongoing "trade-in" policy may provide significant support to core commodity CPI and PPI, while abundant supply of bulk commodities and food could exert downward pressure on prices[5]

证券研究报告 受降雨天气影响，端午出行略显平淡 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 02 日│中国内地 动态点评 端午假期出行较为平淡，短途增速稍好于中长途 交通部预计，2025 年端午假期（5/31-6/2）累计全社会跨区域人员流动量达 到 6.57 亿人次，同比（24 年端午假期，下同）提升 3.0%，低于交通运输 部 5 月 29 日的初步预测 7.7%，也低于五一假期（yoy+7.9%）和春节假期 （yoy+5.8%）。我们认为出行较为平淡，主要由于南方地区雨水频繁，且今 年端午假期在高考前仅约一个星期，进一步抑制旅游出行。分出行方式来看， 公路客运量同比增长 3.1%，高于铁路和民航 2.3%/1.2%的增幅，三天假期 短途旅游需求稍好。结合子行业景气趋势，考虑暑运旺季，推荐航空板块， 首推中国国航 A/H，同时推荐皖通高速 A/H、浙江沪杭甬、粤高速 A。 航空：端午假期时长较短，同比增速低于总体 据交通部预计，端午假期民航客运量日均 186.7 万人次，同比增长 1.22%， 同比增速低于铁路/公路的 2.3%/3.1%，主要由于端午假期仅三天，对于中 长 途 的 航 空 出 行 催 化 作 用 较 ...

原价约8500元的电脑，最终以6800多元的价格成交，省了近1700元。辽宁消费者辛未换电脑的经历，让他深感消费品以旧换新政策的资金支持力度之 大。"今年身边换手机、电脑的人越来越多。"辛未期待，以后能有更多促销活动让利消费者。 数据验证了消费者的直观感受。今年以来，全省消费市场持续升温。前4个月，全省社会消费品零售总额达3313.8亿元，同比增长6.8%，继续保持增长 态势，连续26个月高于全国平均水平。其中，全省限额以上单位消费品零售额1512.0亿元，同比增长10.5%。 数据也能看出消费品以旧换新等政策的成效，家电、家居家装行业市场增势良好。从限额以上单位商品零售类别看，家用电器和音像器材类零售额同比 增长97.1%，家具类零售额同比增长90.7%，建筑及装潢材料类零售额同比增长80.1%，通信器材类零售额同比增长41.7%。 加大政策支持力度，是今年辽宁消费市场充满活力的重要原因。今年以来，我省3次出台促消费政策，特别是专门制定《辽宁省提振消费6条政策》，着 力在激发消费积极性、培育壮大经营主体、鼓励首发经济等方面加强政策支持、引导。"在让消费者得到更多实惠的同时，我们更加注重培育壮大商贸领域 经营 ...

根据Wind数据，截至2025年5月16日，港股通消费指数近1年涨幅为32.98%，同期沪深300、恒生指数涨 幅为6.83%、20.48%。这一亮眼表现背后，是国内促消费政策的持续发力，以及港股新消费行业的持续 复苏。当前大消费的投资机会怎么看？如何一键关注AH优质消费股？（数据来源：Wind，统计区间： 2024.5.17至2025.5.16，指数历史业绩不预示未来表现） 促消费政策加码，消费板块复苏在途 有专业分析称，短期看，今年要实现经济增长目标，促进消费是必要政策。数据显示，2025年一季度， 我国GDP同比增长5.4%，最终消费支出对经济增长的贡献率达到51.7%（高于去年全年7.2个百分点）， 拉动GDP增长2.8个百分点，消费的"压舱石"作用显著。 长期看，2024年中国的居民消费占GDP比重为42%，与全球主要经济体相比仍处于较低水平。未来10- 20年，必须着手结构性的改革，长期提升居民消费的比重，才会使得中国拥有更平衡更持续的活力。 （资料参考：腾讯网《北大光华陈玉宇：提振消费与更平衡的长期经济增长模式》，2025.4.16；智通财 经《中华全国商业信息中心：一季度消费对经济增长贡献率有 ...