投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 28 日 热点品种 沪铜： 沪铜今日高开低走震荡收跌。国家统计局数据显示，1—4 月份，全国规模以上工 业企业实现利润总额21170.2亿元，同比增长1.4%。其中，汽车制造业下降5.1%。 美联储对于利率稳定的预期有所加强，美元指数小幅反弹压制铜价。刚果大型铜 矿（卡库拉）因地震停产，并撤回 2025 年产量指引，加深矿端供应趋紧预期。 供给方面，截止 5 月 23 日，我国现货粗炼费(TC)-44.3 美元/干吨，RC 费用-4.44 美分/磅，TC/RC 费用依然处于负值，但下滑幅度明显放缓，冶炼厂暂时没有大幅 检修，主要系长协订单及副产品弥补亏损，但利润负值状态下，市场偏紧预期依 然存在。4 月精炼铜(电解铜)产量 125.4 万吨，同比增加 9%;进口精炼铜数量 30.02 万吨，同比降低 11.97%，国内精炼铜产量维持高位，同比增速大幅增加， ...

特朗普总统真是做生意的天才啊，他忽悠全世界国家和地区，谁对中国加征关税，就能获得美国对等关税的"免死金牌"。 《华尔街日报》5月23日报道说，特朗普政府最近在与各国的谈判中，提出了一个要求，那就是对中国商品加征关税，作为与美国达成贸易协议的条件。 目前看来这项要求，是美国与其他国家地区，签署贸易协议的"硬性条件"。 这也怪不得，美国"解放日"以来的关税政策，现在已经一个多月过去了，达成的贸易协议国家，只有跟美国穿一条裤子的，同属盎格鲁撒克逊体系的英国。 连加拿大和澳大利亚这样的国家，都无法跟美国谈拢贸易协议。 《华尔街日报》在报道中，提到了一个细节，不具名的白宫官员指出，美国已经对欧盟提出了要求，坚持让欧盟加入其对中国的经济施压行动，并希望欧洲 国家对中国商品征收新关税。 除此之外对于美国而言，特朗普只不过是一个"过客"，激进的全球对等关税政策，最多只能维持4年，这是所有人都明白的。 特朗普之前已经干了一届，这次他干完四年就不可能连任了，那么对于世界各国而言，有必要冒着跟中国彻底翻脸的风险，配合特朗普这货加大对华关税 吗？ 到时候特朗普是舒服了，名利双收、风光卸任，其他国家就要面临中国的各种断供。 但是由于中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the differences between two retail models in China: Sam's Club and Pang Donglai, highlighting how social structures and urban environments influence their business strategies and customer relationships [2][11]. Group 1: Business Models - Pang Donglai offers a long-term companionship service that is more traditional and localized, suitable for China's familiar social structure [2][12]. - Sam's Club operates on a membership sales model to enhance customer loyalty and a direct sales model to reduce costs by collaborating directly with manufacturers [5][6]. - In 2023, Sam's Club generated 80 billion in revenue from 48 stores in China, averaging 1.67 billion per store, which is ten times the revenue of Hema stores [4]. Group 2: Social Structure Impact - The article emphasizes that the social structure is a core differentiator between the two retail models, with Sam's Club thriving in urban areas characterized by a "stranger society" and Pang Donglai succeeding in smaller cities with a "familiar society" [8][11]. - Sam's Club's business logic is based on standardized offerings that provide consumers with stable expectations, while Pang Donglai's success is rooted in community recognition and social relationships [11][12]. - The article notes that the population structure and social dynamics in smaller cities have stabilized, making them more conducive to the business model of Pang Donglai [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market had more rising contracts than falling ones on May 21, 2025. Crude oil faces downward pressure due to supply increases and uncertain demand. The steel market is multi - faceted, with the rebar contract in a weak shock pattern. Other commodities also have their own supply - demand and market situation characteristics, with different price trends expected [3][6][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - OPEC+ started to gradually relax production cuts in April, increasing daily supply to 411,000 barrels in May and planning further increases. The actual increase last month was only 25,000 barrels per day, lower than the plan. The US crude production is near a historical high, and non - OPEC+ countries are also releasing capacity. The Iran nuclear deal may be signed, increasing supply pressure. Demand is affected by the lingering impact of the global trade war and is in the off - season. Crude oil has downward pressure but is also affected by geopolitical risks [3] Rebar - The rebar main contract showed a weak shock trend. Production and apparent demand increased, while factory inventory decreased and social inventory declined for the tenth consecutive week. However, the overall supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly. Supply contraction is difficult in the short term, and cost support has weakened. The market is a game between weakening demand and macro - policy support, with limited short - term upward space [6] Futures Market Overview - As of the close on May 21, domestic futures main contracts had more rising than falling ones. Alumina rose over 3%, while the container shipping European line fell over 7%. Index futures and bond futures also had different performance. In terms of capital flow, there were inflows and outflows in different contracts [8][9] Asphalt - The asphalt production rate increased, but actual demand is yet to recover. Refinery inventory is at a low level. With the possible signing of the Iran nuclear deal and crude oil fluctuations, asphalt is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread as it enters the peak season [11] Plastic - The plastic production rate decreased, and downstream demand is still at a low level. New production capacity has been put into operation, and downstream demand has not fully recovered. With the impact of trade negotiations and the situation of the Iran nuclear deal, plastic is expected to have a small rebound [13] PP - The PP downstream production rate increased slightly, and the enterprise production rate decreased. New production capacity has been put into operation, and downstream recovery is slow. With the impact of trade negotiations and the situation of the Iran nuclear deal, PP is expected to have a small rebound [14] PVC - The PVC production rate decreased, and downstream demand is still relatively low. The Indian anti - dumping policy affects exports, and inventory pressure is large. After a decline in the futures price, it may have a small rebound due to improved macro - sentiment [16] Hot Rolled Coil - The hot - rolled coil main contract rose slightly. Supply pressure has eased, and demand has increased. With the opening of the export window after Sino - US negotiations, demand is expected to strengthen, and the price may rise [17][18] Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper showed an upward trend after opening low. The central bank's LPR cut and the US economic situation have different impacts on copper prices. Supply is expected to be tight, but actual reduction is not obvious. Demand is in the off - season, and copper prices are under pressure but show an upward shock trend [19] Urea - Urea showed an upward trend after opening high. Supply is stable with a slight decline, and demand is currently weak. The market is expected to be bullish in the short - to - medium term but may weaken later [21] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate showed a weak shock trend. The tariff negotiation result is good, but the fundamentals are weak. Supply is decreasing, and demand has seasonal characteristics. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [22][24]

【冠通研究】 原油：震荡上行 制作日期：2025年5月21日 【策略分析】 逢高做空 欧佩克+产油国从4月起实施逐步放松减产计划，并将5月日均原油供应量提高到41.1万桶。5月3 日，欧佩克+宣布，8个参与国将在6月增产41.1万桶/日。逐步增产可能会被暂停或逆转，具体取决 于市场状况。OPEC+增产步伐加快，另外，消息人士称，欧佩克+可能会在6月批准7月再一次加速增 产，幅度为每日41.1万桶。如果配额遵守情况没有改善，欧佩克+计划到10月逐步取消此前设定的220 万桶/日的自愿减产措施。从最新的欧佩克月报上看，同意增加供应的八个国家上个月共只增加了 2.5万桶/日，低于计划的13.8万桶/日。目前OPEC+暂未进入增产节奏。不过OPEC+能否真正进行补偿性 减产有待验证，美国原油产量仍在历史高位附近。加之其他非OPEC+释放产能，伊朗核协议或将签署， 后续原油供给压力较大。对于需求端，全球贸易战最恐慌时段过去，英国和美国就关税贸易协议条 款达成一致，中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，大幅降低双边关税水平，美国与中东多国签署经 济合作协议，但也需注意全球10%的基准关税可能会保留。全球贸易战对经济的伤害悲观预 ...

热点品种 原油： 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 20 日 欧佩克+产油国从 4 月起实施逐步放松减产计划，并将 5 月日均原油供应量提高 到 41.1 万桶。5 月 3 日，欧佩克+宣布，8 个参与国将在 6 月增产 41.1 万桶/日。 逐步增产可能会被暂停或逆转，具体取决于市场状况。OPEC+增产步伐加快，另 外，消息人士称，欧佩克+可能会在 6 月批准 7 月再一次加速增产，幅度为每日 41.1 万桶。如果配额遵守情况没有改善，欧佩克+计划到 10 月逐步取消此前设 定的 220 万桶/日的自愿减产措施。从最新的欧佩克月报上看，同意增加供应的 八个国家上个月共只增加了 2.5 万桶/日，低于计划的 13.8 万桶/日。目前 OPEC+ 暂未进入增产节奏。不过 OPEC+能否真正进行补偿性减产有待验证，美国原油产 量仍在历史高位附近。加之其他非 OPEC+释放产能，伊朗核协议或将签署，后续 原油供给压力较大。对于需求端，全球贸易战最恐慌时段过去，英国和美国就关 税贸易协 ...

互加关税一个月以后，中美之间的谈判已经落地。但是这并不意味着全球贸易战的结束。相反，迄今为 止，全球依然有超过一半的国家没有和美国达成关税协定。 中美关税战还在持续 作为美国的邻国，墨西哥是美国最大的贸易伙伴。然而，墨西哥和美国的协议不仅仅影响这两个国家。 而且因为墨西哥已经成为中国乃至其他各国的转口国家。所以墨西哥其实是包括中国在内的世界各国， 通往美国的一个贸易通道。 对此，美国财政部长贝森特警告：如今90天的"对等关税"暂缓期限已经过半，如果不能和美国达成新一 轮的关税协定，那么就意味着美国对这些国家的关税，将回到4月2日的"对等关税"的税率。 而迄今为止，欧盟、日本、印度等主要国家和经济体依然没有和美国达成协议。就算是中国这边，依然 还需要和美国再次谈判，毕竟中美之间还有24%的"保留税率"需要谈判。 那么，面对美国的极限施压，这些国家是否会选择屈服？中美之间的24%缓冲关税又会谈成什么样子？ 今天我们就来深度解读这些话题，码字不易，欢迎点赞，转发，收藏。 全球贸易战开启"激烈谈判" 虽然美国宣布"对等关税"。但是从贸易体量来看，特朗普仅仅拟定了18个"重点贸易谈判对象"。可截止 目前，仅仅只有中国和 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report analyzes multiple commodities including asphalt, crude oil, copper, etc., and provides corresponding market trend forecasts and investment suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals, macro - economic factors, and trade policies [3][5][10] - For example, it is expected that asphalt will fluctuate at a high level and suggests going long on the 09 - 12 spread; crude oil has downward pressure; the copper market is expected to be volatile in the short - term and bullish in the long - term [3][5][10] Summary by Commodity Asphalt - Supply: This week, the asphalt operating rate rose 5.6 percentage points to 34.4%, 7.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The expected output in May is 231.8 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.3% and a year - on - year increase of 1.3% [3] - Demand: The operating rates of most downstream industries rose, but the actual demand still needs to recover due to factors such as rainfall and capital constraints [3] - Market trend: With both supply and demand increasing, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread as it enters the peak season [3] Crude Oil - Price movement: After falling to near the previous low on May 6, the price rebounded due to improved macro - sentiment and US sanctions on entities engaged in Iranian oil trade [4] - Supply: OPEC+ started to gradually relax the production cut plan in April, increasing the daily supply by 411,000 barrels in May. Eight countries will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June. There is a large supply pressure in the future [5] - Demand: The most panicked period of the global trade war has passed, but the pessimistic expectation of its impact on the economy has not been fully reversed. It is currently the off - season for global crude oil consumption [5] Copper - Supply: The supply is tight, with a tight situation in the mining end and high smelter costs. Although copper production has increased, the cost pressure on smelters is obvious [10] - Demand: Downstream demand shows resilience, but there is resistance to high prices. The demand in May may be slightly weaker than that in April [10] - Market trend: The market is expected to be volatile in the short - term with limited up and down space, and bullish in the long - term [10] Other Commodities - **PP**: It is expected to rebound slightly as the market sentiment is boosted by Sino - US trade negotiations, although there are supply and demand challenges such as restricted exports and slow downstream recovery [14] - **Plastic**: It is expected to rebound slightly. The start - up rate has increased, but downstream demand has not fully recovered [15][16] - **PVC**: It may continue to rebound. The start - up rate has decreased slightly, and the market has been boosted by improved macro - sentiment [17] - **Grease**: The short - term market is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to consider buying on dips after a fall [18][19] - **Soybean Meal**: The space for further weakening is limited. The domestic supply is relatively loose, and the demand is good [20] - **Rebar**: The price may continue to fall due to factors such as high supply, weak demand, and weak cost support [21][22] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The price may continue to be under pressure if demand remains weak and supply pressure increases [23] - **Urea**: The short - term trend is still strong, but the up and down space is limited under the macro - price - stabilizing policy, and the export policy needs to be clarified [24][25]

美元周三小幅走高，从早些时候的下跌中反弹，因为投资者等待全球贸易战将继续缓解的新信号。 包括高盛、摩根大通和巴克莱在内的几家主要券商最近下调了对美国经济衰退的预测和对美联储政策宽松的看法。 "显然，如今一切都仍然非常集中在贸易上，这仍然是推动事情发展的巨大催化剂，"杰富瑞（Jefferies）驻纽约的全球外汇主管布拉德·贝克特尔（Brad Bechtel）说。 "亚洲货币领域仍然存在很大的波动性，但美元应该仍处于逆势反弹中，然后最终将再次开始走低，可能是通过某种后门或闭门安排。" 衡量美元兑一篮子货币的美元指数上涨 0.06% 至 101.04，欧元下跌 0.06% 至 1.1177 美元。 投资者也在消化韩国财政部副部长崔智英 （Choi Ji-young） 于 5 月 5 日会见美国财政部的罗伯特·卡普罗特 （Robert Kaproth） 讨论外汇市场，这帮助美元 兑韩元跌至一周来的最低水平。 但彭博社援引一位知情人士的话报道称，美国不会就美元走软进行谈判，作为关税谈判的一部分，亚洲货币的波动有所缓和。 韩元兑美元上涨 0.84% 至 1,402.66 美元，此前曾上涨 2.1%。美元兑日元下跌 0.5 ...

韩国一家由政府资助的智库大幅下调了对该国今年的经济增长预期，这反映了特朗普的关税行动对这个 依赖贸易的国家所产生的影响，此时韩国总统竞选也正如火如荼地进行着。 在上月举行的党内电视辩论中，李在明特别强调若当选将在执政百日优先处理对美贸易谈判，并解释称 他的团队已经在做准备，以便能够迅速开展工作来解决这一问题。国民力量党的金文洙则表示，他将通 过扶持企业来重振经济。 韩国经济第一季度已现萎缩，表明在出口商尚未完全承受特朗普新关税冲击前，商业活动就已显露疲 态，这加剧了市场对该地区经济进一步恶化的担忧。 作为美国关键盟友的韩国此前被加征25%全面关税，4月初起暂时降至10%并维持90天。与其他国家一 样，韩国在汽车、钢铁和铝制品出口方面仍面临25%的惩罚性关税。 本周亚太经合组织会议在韩国济州岛举行期间，韩国贸易部长将力争与美国贸易代表杰米森.格里尔进 行磋商。 该智库表示："由于贸易环境不断恶化，我们的经济预计将放缓。实行宽松的货币政策是可取的，以减 轻国内外需求放缓可能导致的价格下行压力。" 韩国开发研究院在周三发布的半年度经济展望报告中表示，预计2025年韩国经济增速将降至0.8%，较 去年2%的增长率显著 ...