Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is facing a dilemma between the urgency to export products before the cancellation of VAT export rebates in April 2026 and the rising costs of raw materials, which are causing hesitation in production decisions [1][2]. Group 1: Export Urgency and Cost Pressures - Companies are under pressure to complete exports before the April 1 deadline to avoid losing key orders, but rising raw material costs are leading to significant budget overruns [1][2]. - The price of battery cells has increased significantly, with some manufacturers halting purchases due to cost concerns, which is impacting production schedules [2][3]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates is expected to push up component prices, complicating the decision-making process for manufacturers regarding exports [3][5]. Group 2: Inventory and Production Challenges - Manufacturers with high inventory levels are in a favorable position as their stock was produced at lower costs, while those with low inventory face challenges in sourcing high-cost battery cells for production [2][3]. - The domestic component prices are highly volatile, influenced by rising costs of metals like silver and aluminum, as well as upstream supply chain constraints [3][4]. Group 3: Market Uncertainty and Strategic Responses - Many manufacturers are uncertain about the overseas market dynamics, leading to difficulties in pricing and decision-making for exports [3][4]. - Companies are exploring alternative strategies, such as using silver-copper technology to mitigate the impact of rising silver prices on production costs [6]. - Some firms, like JinkoSolar, have mechanisms in place to adjust pricing in response to policy changes, indicating preparedness for the cancellation of export rebates [6]. Group 4: Long-term Industry Implications - The cancellation of export rebates may accelerate the elimination of less competitive players in the photovoltaic industry, pushing the sector towards higher value and better technology products [6]. - Companies are encouraged to innovate and enhance product value to cope with cost pressures, which could lead to a healthier and more sustainable industry structure [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced adjustments to the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic and battery products, effective from April 1, 2026, with a complete cancellation of the VAT export rebate for these products, indicating a shift towards a mature industry that no longer requires policy support [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Changes - From April 1, 2026, the VAT export rebate for photovoltaic products will be completely canceled, and the rebate rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6% until December 31, 2026, after which it will also be canceled [1]. - The export tax rebate rates for certain products, including photovoltaic and battery products, were previously reduced from 13% to 9% starting December 1, 2024, reflecting a trend towards decreasing support for these mature industries [1][4]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The removal of the export tax rebate will increase export costs for companies, leading to market consolidation where less competitive firms may be eliminated, while leading companies with scale and technology will strengthen their market positions [3]. - The photovoltaic industry has seen a significant drop in export prices, with prices for photovoltaic modules falling over 60% from $0.24 per watt to $0.09 per watt, resulting in a 33% year-on-year decline in export value for 2024 [2][3]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The adjustment of export tax rebates is expected to redirect fiscal resources towards domestic demand and social welfare, addressing challenges such as insufficient effective demand and overcapacity in certain sectors [3]. - The policy changes are part of a broader strategy to optimize fiscal resource allocation, allowing for more targeted support in areas like consumer subsidies and employment assistance, which are crucial for stabilizing economic expectations [3][4].

每经评论员 杜恒峰 出口退税的核心作用在于降低企业出口成本、提升国际竞争力，这一政策对处于发展初期的行业至关重 要。但光伏和电池已是我国的强势出口产品，其全球竞争力已达到无需政策扶持的成熟阶段。目前全球 约80%的太阳能电池、70%的锂电池由中国生产，在全产业链形成了无可替代的规模优势与成本优势。 在技术层面，我国主导了单晶硅生长和加工的核心技术创新，太阳能电池效率多项世界纪录被中国企业 包揽，实现了从多晶硅到组件的全链条技术自主。建立在技术、规模、成本之上的硬实力，使得出口退 税对光伏和电池产业的扶持效应已十分有限，政策退出成为产业成熟的必然选择。 与此同时，出口退税也是国家调节进出口平衡、调控市场供需的重要宏观工具。出口退税本质上属于供 给扩张性政策，而当前我国光伏行业已出现无序竞争、内卷加剧的突出问题。近年来光伏出口价格呈 现"踩踏式下跌"，光伏组件价格从2023年初的0.24美元/瓦降至0.09美元/瓦，降幅超六成，直接导致2024 年光伏产品出口额同比下降33%。2024年退税率从13%下调至9%的调整，并未扭转相关产品价格低迷的 态势，企业仍大面积亏损，下调4个百分点的退税税率没能改变行业供需失衡 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment of export tax rebate policies for photovoltaic and battery products signifies a shift in China's fiscal strategy, moving from "subsidizing production" to "empowering residents" as a fundamental narrative for economic growth [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Adjustments - As of April 1, 2026, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration will cancel the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic products and reduce the battery export tax rebate from 9% to 6%, eventually eliminating it by January 1, 2027 [1]. - The policy affects 249 items in the photovoltaic sector and 22 items in the battery sector, marking a significant change following the previous reduction from 13% to 9% in 2024 [1]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The adjustment is part of a broader strategy to restructure the sources of economic growth, particularly in the context of the "14th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the need to enhance domestic demand [2][4]. - The photovoltaic industry faces intense competition, leading to a "volume increase, price decrease" scenario, which has resulted in profit losses for domestic companies and increased risks of international trade disputes [2][4]. Group 3: Financial Sustainability - The reduction or cancellation of export tax rebates is expected to help stabilize foreign market prices and reduce trade friction risks, while also alleviating the fiscal burden on the government [4]. - In 2025, China's trade surplus reached a record high of $1.07 trillion, with export tax rebates amounting to 1.9 trillion yuan, highlighting the unsustainability of the current model [4]. Group 4: Strategic Shift - The policy aims to guide industries like photovoltaic and lithium batteries from relying on price subsidies to competing based on technology, brand, and service quality, which could lead to the elimination of outdated production capacities [4][5]. - The saved fiscal resources from tax rebate adjustments are intended to be redirected towards enhancing consumer spending and investment, particularly in social security measures for low-income groups [5][6]. Group 5: Market Opportunities - The adjustment of export tax rebates is seen as a catalyst for a new economic narrative, shifting the focus from production subsidies to empowering residents and fostering innovation to stimulate domestic demand [6][7]. - Companies in the photovoltaic sector may experience price increases for solar panels, potentially reshaping global green energy installation cost curves, with market expectations favoring leading firms like JinkoSolar and LONGi Green Energy [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the export tax rebate policy on the lithium battery industry chain, highlighting a profit redistribution within the sector as a result of changing market dynamics and regulatory adjustments [2][6][21]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On January 12, carbon lithium futures surged to a limit up, reaching 156,060 yuan per ton, marking a return to the 150,000 yuan threshold after two years [3]. - The spot market also saw increases, with battery-grade lithium carbonate averaging around 152,000 yuan per ton, and industrial-grade at approximately 149,000 yuan per ton, both up by over 10,000 yuan from the previous trading day [3]. - In the Hong Kong stock market, lithium battery stocks showed mixed reactions, with companies like CATL and China Graphite experiencing declines, while Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium saw gains [4]. Group 2: Policy Implications - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of VAT export rebates for certain lithium battery materials starting April 1, 2026, and a reduction in the rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6% during 2026 [8]. - This policy is seen as a clear timeline that the market interprets in two ways: a short-term window for preemptive orders and production, and a long-term impact on profit margins for battery exports [9]. Group 3: Profit Redistribution - The article notes a divergence in stock performance, with battery manufacturing viewed as facing cost pressures while lithium resource companies are seen as benefiting from demand resilience [10]. - The adjustment in export tax is perceived not just as a financial change but as a corrective signal against external trade friction and internal price competition [11][12]. - The market is increasingly viewing this policy as a potential shift in pricing strategies rather than a minor financial adjustment [12]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The article emphasizes that the recent price surge in lithium carbonate has been building over the past month, with prices consistently breaking through key thresholds [13]. - The psychological and strategic significance of these price levels is highlighted, as they attract more capital into the market [14]. - There is a noted discrepancy in market sentiment regarding whether the price increase is driven by genuine demand or speculative funding, with a significant portion of the capital in the futures market being speculative [17]. Group 5: Regulatory Environment - The article mentions that regulatory actions have been implemented to temper trading enthusiasm, including increasing minimum order sizes and setting daily trading limits [19][20]. - The export tax policy provides a narrative that the market can engage with, focusing on the timing and profit redistribution within the lithium supply chain [21].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market showed a mixed trend on January 12, 2026, with some commodities rising significantly and others declining [5]. - Different commodities have their own supply - demand situations, and factors such as macro - economy, policy, and geopolitics affect their prices, with different price trends expected for each commodity. 3. Summary of Each Commodity Metals - **沪铜**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January is low, short - term macro support for Shanghai copper is weak. The supply side may face production cuts, the demand side has strong terminal demand but weak copper product demand, showing a structure of strong expectation and weak reality, with a medium - to - long - term upward trend after a phased correction [8]. - **碳酸锂**: Affected by the export tax - rebate adjustment, the market has a strong expectation of rush - export, driving the futures price to rise sharply. In the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to be strong under the stimulation of rush - export, but the potential negative impact of CATL's resumption of production needs to be noted [10]. - **焦煤**: The spot price of coking coal is relatively stable, the supply side has an increase in production, and the demand side has a recovery in demand from coking enterprises and steel mills. The price is expected to be volatile and strong, but chasing high prices has risks [21][22]. Energy - **原油**: OPEC + maintains the production plan, the demand is in the off - season, and the market is in a supply - surplus pattern. Geopolitical factors such as the situation in Iran and the Russia - Ukraine negotiation affect the price, which is expected to fluctuate [11][13]. - **沥青**: The supply is expected to decrease, the demand in the north is affected by the end of construction, and the demand in the south is average. Geopolitical events in Venezuela affect the raw material supply, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate greatly, with the far - month asphalt/near - month crude oil showing a strong and volatile trend [14]. Chemicals - **PP**: The downstream开工率 is low, the supply has new capacity and a decrease in maintenance, the demand is in the off - season. The macro - environment is positive, but the improvement of the supply - demand pattern is limited, and the upward space is limited. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [15][16]. - **塑料**: The开工率 is at a medium level, the downstream demand of agricultural film is in the off - season, the supply has new capacity, and the upward space is limited. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17][19]. - **PVC**: The supply side has an increase in开工率, the downstream demand is weak, the inventory is high, and there may be a rush - export phenomenon before the cancellation of export tax - rebates. The 3 - 5 contracts are expected to be strong and volatile [20]. - **尿素**: After a continuous rise, it enters a correction stage. The supply side has an increase in daily output, the demand side has weak support, and the inventory is at a relatively high level in the past five years. It is expected to be weak in the short - term [23]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures all rose, with the CSI 1000 rising the most at 3.75% [5][6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures all had different degrees of increase or remained flat, with the 30 - year rising the most at 0.30% [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic and other products is expected to boost the cargo volume on European routes in the first quarter of 2026. The policy adjustment is likely to have a significant impact on near - month contracts, being beneficial to the 02 contract, while the impact on the 04 contract remains to be observed [2][5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Policy Background - On January 8, 2026, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration jointly issued an announcement to cancel the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic products starting from April 1, 2026. For battery products, the policy will be adjusted step - by - step and fully cancelled by 2027 [3] Market Reaction and Short - term Cargo Volume Impact - Europe and the Asia - Pacific are the top two export markets for Chinese photovoltaic modules. From 2024 to the present, exports to Europe account for 35% - 45% of the total photovoltaic exports. From January to October this year, the export volume of photovoltaic modules to five northwest European countries was about 96 million pieces, equivalent to about 385,000 TEU, accounting for 4% - 5% of the total cargo volume on European routes [4] - The policy implementation is expected to trigger a concentrated rush to export among photovoltaic enterprises. Some enterprises plan to maintain production during the Spring Festival and speed up overseas shipments. It is expected that in the first quarter of 2026, this will boost the cargo volume on European routes [4] - When there were rumors of tax rebate adjustments in August 2025, there was a rush to transport in August - September. With the formal implementation of the policy and the one - step cancellation of the tax rebate rate, the scale of the rush to transport is expected to exceed the previous round. Before the policy execution, the monthly export scale may reach 65,000 - 70,000 TEU, with a monthly increase of about 35,000 TEU and a 5% boost in cargo volume, especially supporting the cargo volume during the Spring Festival off - season [5] - The impact of the rush to transport on actual freight rates needs further observation. Before the Spring Festival, if the rush to export photovoltaic products coincides with the peak shipping season, it may push up freight rates in the short term. However, after the Spring Festival, it is the traditional off - season in the shipping market, and shipping companies can adjust the supply of shipping capacity. The monthly increase of about 35,000 TEU can be absorbed by about two 17,000 - TEU ships, so the upward push on freight rates may be limited. From the second quarter of 2026, the overdraft effect on demand may suppress subsequent cargo volume [5] - Overall, the policy adjustment is expected to have a significant impact on near - month contracts, being beneficial to the 02 contract. The impact on the 04 contract remains to be observed: the traditional post - Spring Festival freight rate decline trend may slow down due to cargo volume support, but the front - loading of demand is actually negative for the cargo volume in the second quarter of 2026 and later [6]

自2026年4月1日起，取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税；2027年1月1日起，取消电池产品增值税出口退税。 日前，财政部、国家税务总局发布关于调整光伏等产品出口退税政策的公告。 三、对上述产品中征收消费税的产品，出口消费税政策不作调整，继续适用消费税退（免）税政策。 财政部、国家税务总局相关公告 四、公告所列产品适用的出口退税率，以出口货物报关单注明的出口日期界定。 具体内容包括： 一、自2026年4月1日起，取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税。具体产品清单见附件1。 二、自2026年4月1日起至2026年12月31日，将电池产品的增值税出口退税率，由9%下调至6%；2027年1月1日起，取消电池产品增值税出口退税。具体产 品清单见附件2。 ...

此次光伏出口退税全面取消、电池退税进一步下调后，企业将失去最高9个百分点的税率优势，出口成 本必然上升。这一调整将有效加速市场出清：那些高度依赖出口退税维持利润、缺乏核心技术与成本控 制能力的中小企业将被淘汰，而具备规模效应、技术壁垒和全球化布局的龙头企业，将凭借真实竞争力 巩固市场份额，推动行业从"内卷式竞争"向高质量发展转型。 来源：每日经济新闻 光伏和电池产品出口退税取消有利于优化财政资源，更多的财政支持可以投向扩内需、保民生等经济薄 弱环节。当前我国经济仍面临有效需求不足、部分行业产能过剩、社会预期偏弱等挑战，扩大内需与保 障民生成为稳定经济大盘的关键。取消强势产业的出口退税，财政资源可以"做优增量、盘活存量"。释 放的财政资金可精准投向消费补贴、就业扶持、教育医疗保障等领域，既能够增强居民消费能力、激活 国内大市场，又能补齐民生短板、稳定发展预期。"投资于物"和"投资于人"紧密结合，可以让每一笔财 政资金都能发挥更大的战略效能。 出口退税税率从最高一档13%降至9%，再到完全取消出口退税，这是光伏和电池产品全球竞争力提升 的结果。出口退税能够降低企业的出口成本，提升竞争力，这对处于发展初期的行业作用 ...

以下文章来源于一德菁英汇 ，作者一德菁菁 一德菁英汇 . 期货交易者的紧密合作伙伴！ 文 | 一德菁菁 来源 | 一德菁英汇 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 要点速览版： 光伏：短期抢出口，长期促出清 长期：压缩电池企业的出口利润，但中国电池在全球市场仍具备较强竞争力，且对上游原料价格的长期影响有限。 PVC：强化出口导向与价格支撑 短期：目前盘面反应偏积极，政策抬升了价格重心； 中长期：政策被产业普遍解读为利好，成本顺势转嫁，加速国内高成本产能退出，优化供给格局。 近日，财政部、税务总局联合发布《关于调整光伏等产品出口退税政策的公告》。结合本次公告内容，我们来谈谈对期货的影响。 光伏 根据财政部、税务总局公告，自2026年4月1日起，取消光伏产品增值税出口退税，清单中包含硅片、电池片及组件。 短期：预计在2026年一季度引发抢出口，可能支撑组件、电池片等下游环节的价格，并减缓其减产计划； 长期：增加企业出口成本，有利于加速落后产能出清，促进行业整合。 锂电：分步取消，影响相对温和 短期：2026年二季度前存抢出口预期，对上游原料需求形成一定短期利好，但力度可能弱于光伏； 近几年PVC出口占比逐年提升 ...